The Big Match Tactical View: Manchester City v Manchester United

"Blind has been booked twice in six starts in a United shirt, and this is his biggest test so far."

Back Daley Blind to be shown a card at 4.216/5

Manchester City are odds-on favourites despite being winless in three matches, and potentially without key players through injury. Michael Cox considers how Manuel Pellegrini might adjust, while Alan Thompson has the betting lowdown...

Manchester City v Manchester United
Sunday, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Manchester City 1.9520/21, Manchester United 4.67/2, The Draw 3.814/5.

Manchester City are unquestionably favourites for Sunday's Manchester derby, but following a poor run of form, confidence at the Etihad is in short supply - and Manchester United are coming into this fixture with their tails up.

The Manchester derby is a particularly intriguing fixture. Consider the balance of power in the long-term, medium-term and short-term, and you get very different answers. While United have undoubtedly been the strongest team over the last decade, and City superior over the past year, considering the last month - or even week - is a lot trickier.

United still haven't entirely clicked under Louis van Gaal, but they're unbeaten in four matches, whereas City haven't won in their last three. This game might be closer than previously anticipated.

City are also being troubled by injuries. David Silva is definitely out with a knee problem, while Yaya Toure is rated as doubtful. Silva brings the creativity and incision to City, while Toure brings power to City's side. Without these two, the Citizens are a much weaker attacking force.

Manuel Pellegrini's team selection, therefore, is highly dependent upon the fitness of Toure, and it could even define his formation. Pellegrini has increasingly played Silva behind Sergio Aguero in a 4-2-3-1 for big matches, but he could play a 4-4-2 with Edin Dzeko alongside Aguero here, or put Toure behind the main striker.

Fernando and Fernandinho would be the midfield partnership without Toure, with the returning Samir Nasri on the left and James Milner on the right. It's a lot boxier than a potential 4-2-3-1 featuring Silva and Toure in central positions.

There's less of a question mark about Van Gaal's system. Wayne Rooney is suspended and Radamel Falcao still injured, so it seems unlikely United will revert to a midfield diamond, and the 4-1-4-1 proved reasonably effective against Chelsea last weekend.

However, don't rule out a couple of changes - Adnan Januzaj could be dropped with Ander Herrera returning, perhaps meaning Juan Mata being shifted out to the flank. 

The most interesting zone, however, is in front of the Manchester United back four. This is where Daley Blind will be stationed, and this is arguably his first real test in a United shirt. Against Chelsea last weekend, he was up against Oscar, a fine playmaker - but a player who suits Blind's skillset, providing a technical and tactical test.

This time around, Blind could be faced with multiple players coming inside into his zone - it's possible, for example, that Nasri will be drifting in from the left, Aguero dropping deep, and Toure storming forward. Toure, in particular, would be a huge challenge for Blind, who isn't the most physically imposing player. Blind has been booked twice in six starts in a United shirt, and I'll back him to be shown another card at 4.216/5.

He'll depend upon good support from his midfield colleagues, particularly Marouane Fellaini, who provides strength and height against Toure. Expect United to be forced back into their own half for long periods, and their best attacks might come on the break - Angel Di Maria was subdued against Chelsea, but remains their greatest threat.

Robin van Persie, quiet in recent weeks, must also be more involved this time around, and his battle against Vincent Kompany should be particularly interesting.

This seems like another game for Aguero, though. Manchester United's centre-backs continue to look nervous, and playing relatively high up the pitch too - which plays into Aguero's hands, because of his sheer speed. The Argentine has opened the scoring in four of his nine starts so far this season, and I'll back him to score another opener here, at 5.69/2.

Recommended Bets
Back Daley Blind to be shown a card at 4.216/5
Back Sergio Aguero as first goalscorer at 5.69/2

Without a victory in their last three starts in all competitions Manchester City head into this weekend’s derby in a must win situation. City have already dropped as many points at home as they did in the entire 2013-14 Premier League season and trail Chelsea by six points already.

While the Red Devils certainly made progress against Chelsea last week it doesn’t disguise the fact that they have still failed to win any of their last six Premier League away days. United have kept just two clean sheets this season, against Queens Park Rangers and Burnley, the two clubs currently propping up the Premier League.

I can see this game producing a few goals again with City really needing to win and United offering quality and a threat going forward. A look at the head-to-head’s shows there have also been plenty of goals to enjoy in the Manchester derbies recently. Both teams have scored in five of the last seven meetings with City scoring at least twice in five of them.

I think City will get back to winning ways but priced around 2.0 they are short enough. As I am expecting an entertaining encounter and I will take a chance on backing City to win 2-1 @ 10 and 3-1 @ 16.

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The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Everton

"Arsenal have conceded just two goals in nine domestic home games"
Back an Arsenal clean sheet at 2.915/8

Michael Cox and Alan Thompson preview the intriguing Saturday afternoon FA Cup showdown between two sides desperate to end their ongoing trophy droughts...

Arsenal v Everton
Saturday 12:45, ITV1.
Match Odds: Arsenal 1.875/6, Everton 5.24/1, The Draw 3.711/4.

Following Arsenal's demoralising defeat at Stoke City last week, and their probable elimination from the European Cup this coming Tuesday against Bayern Munich, the FA Cup represents the Gunners' best chance of success this season. Everton are a dangerous opponent, but having already overcome Tottenham and Liverpool at the Emirates on their way to this Sixth Round stage, Arsener Wenger's side should be confident of another good result.

Wenger's team selection is unpredictable here, particularly in attacking positions. Ahead of the second leg against Bayern, it's not impossible that Wenger will rest a couple of players in preparation for that game - while they're 2-0 down, they've made impressive (if futile) second leg comebacks against Milan and Bayern in the past two seasons, and Wenger's major ambition remains a European Cup victory. However unlikely progression to the quarter-final in that competition may be, Wenger will have one eye on Tuesday night.

However, it's difficult to work out Arsenal's first-choice XI at the moment anyway. Mesut Ozil was left out of the squad for the win against Sunderland because of a slight injury, then was only on the bench at Stoke. Lukas Podolski has been in and out of the side, Santi Cazorla not quite at his best, Tomas Rosicky can't play every game, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain still feels like a bonus rather than a regular

A trio of Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ozil and Cazorla is most likely, but don't rule out a surprise selection - perhaps even Serge Gnabry.

Martinez has generally used the FA Cup to play a couple of outsiders, and while the Spaniard is gunning for a second consecutive success in this competition, it's worth remembering he only truly took the FA Cup seriously with Wigan at this stage last year - coincidentally, with a win at Everton.

He's likely to rest first-choice goalkeeper Tim Howard and play Joel Robles instead - he conceded four on his last visit to the Emirates. Ross Barkley has been left out recently but will probably start against a side he's previously played well against, while Romelu Lukaku should return to the starting line-up, having made an instant impact as a substitute at West Ham last week, following a month-long absence. John Stones will continue if Phil Jagielka, as expected, misses out through injury.

Arsenal must find the right balance between midfield dominance, and getting men up in support of Olivier Giroud. Everton's previous performance at the Emirates, a 1-1 draw, was extremely impressive - they pressed high up the pitch and dominated possession inside the Arsenal half. Wenger will be keen to play as many 'passers' as possible to guard against this, but his side's best attacking moves in recent weeks have come when midfield runners have broken beyond the striker.

Arsenal lack genuine pace in behind the opposition without Theo Walcott, and therefore Everton might feel content to defend high up the pitch, pushing Arsenal away from their goal.

Everton will attempt to get the ball forward quickly to Lukaku, assuming he starts upfront - if not, expect Steven Naismith to work the channels more, and make interesting runs in behind the defence. Arsenal have a nice balance between Laurent Koscielny's pace and Per Mertesacker's positional qualities, however, and should be able to cope with the Belgian alone.

The problem will come from deeper, with right-sided Kevin Mirallas charging in behind, Steven Pienaar drifting inside and Barkley collecting the ball between the lines. Barkley varies his position excellently and find space between the lines and will cause ex-Everton midfield Mikel Arteta serious difficulties. He was twice superb in this fixture during 2013, and will be a goalscoring threat.

In the sides' previous meeting, a 1-1 draw, Everton pushed their full-backs extremely high up the pitch, with James McCarthy and Gareth Barry remaining very deep to form a defensive 'square' with the centre-backs, guarding against counter-attacks. Arsenal's wide midfielders must track back and protect their full-backs, or else Arsenal will become overloaded down the wings.

Arsenal's defensive record in domestic games at the Emirates has been excellent, however. Since Gerard Deolofeu's excellent equaliser in this fixture three months ago, Arsenal have conceded just two goals in nine domestic home games: a penalty from Steven Gerrard and a fine long-range strike from Sunderland's Emanuele Giaccherini. I'll back another Arsenal clean sheet at 2.915/8, but it's difficult to judge their level of attacking threat with an uncertain midfield selection.

Recommended Bet
Back an Arsenal clean sheet at 2.915/8

When the Gunners have played at home against sides in the top half of the league this season, they are undefeated (W3:D3), conceding only one goal though that did come against Everton in a 1-1 draw. All six games produced an under 2.5 goal result. In their last six home games they have scored 10 and conceded only once (Sunderland 4-1), and their only home league defeat remains the opening day shocker 1-3 against Aston Villa. Arsenal have made the most of home advantage in the FA Cup this season, eliminating Spurs (2-0), Coventry (4-0) and Everton’s neighbours Liverpool (2-1) in the 5th round.

Everton haven’t managed to beat any of the sides above them in the league thus far and from their five attempts they have scored twice while conceding 10. Their current away form doesn’t inspire much confidence either, no wins on the road in 2014 (five games). A boost for Everton will be the return of Romelu Lukaku, who got the only goal of the game last week, coming off the bench to hit the winner against West Ham.

March is season-defining for Arsenal - after this game they face Spurs in the league then Chelsea away, followed by Man City at the Emirates. In between the London derbies, they have to go to the Allianz Arena with a first leg 2-0 deficit to try and overcome. For me the FA Cup is their only realistic chance of a long overdue trophy and therefore I will be backing them to win this by dutching 2-0 @ 10 and 2-1 @ 9.6 giving approx dutched odds of 5.

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The Big Match Tactical View: Tottenham v Everton

The absence of naturally pacey, direct players will harm Tottenham's attacking
Lay Spurs at 2.226/5

With Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon both unavailable, Michael Cox thinks Spurs will struggle for width...

Tottenham v Everton, Sunday 2:05, ESPN.

Match Odds: Tottenham 2.226/5, Everton 3.711/4, The Draw 3.55/2

Everton's trip to White Hart Lane is a fantastic opportunity for Everton - and in particular, David Moyes - to defy their critics, and put themselves firmly in the race for a Champions League slot.

A persistent criticism of Moyes is his defensive strategy away from home. Everton have the third-best home record in the Premier League, collecting 2.06 points per game - but that figure falls to just 1.29 on their travels. A victory here would see Everton move three points behind Tottenham, with a game in hand - although that contest is another tricky trip down to North London, against Arsenal.

Both sides have significant absences for this clash. Moyes is without both Marouane Fellaini and Steven Pienaar for the second consecutive match - with Kevin Mirallas also a doubt - but Andre Villas-Boas has a more serious problems. Jermain Defoe, Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon are all unavailable, which creates a real problem for the Portuguese coach.

The issue is not necessarily the quality of replacements - Emmanuel Adebayor, Lewis Holtby, Clint Dempsey and Gylfi Sigurdsson is a decent attacking quartet - but the absence of naturally pacey, direct players. Villas-Boas' Spurs are a possession-based side, but are also intent on playing quick, 'vertical' football, as Villas-Boas puts it, breaking quickly before the opposition defence is able to organise itself into a solid, deep position. Bale, Lennon and Defoe are amongst the players that epitomise that approach best.

Bale has often wandered inside from his traditional role on the left flank this season, but Lennon has reliably provided width on the right. Without that duo, Spurs have an alarming lack of natural wide men - Holtby, Dempsey and Sigurdsson all prefer being deployed centrally, and might crowd the centre of the pitch.

Therefore, Tottenham must look for width and directness from elsewhere. The role of the full-backs will be key - both Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Kyle Walker must motor forward constantly to stretch the play - but Mousa Dembele is also important. Despite playing as a central midfielder, he's Spurs' best hope of an attacking player offering dribbling and forward running, and the Belgian must ensure his side's attacks flow quickly.

Moyes remains a very reactive manager, and will be fully aware of how Spurs' absences will affect Villas-Boas' gameplan. Expect to see Everton defending even narrower than usual, and Moyes will hope Tottenham's attack-minded full-backs leave space for Everton to break into. Mirallas would be an extremely useful player in that situation, so his fitness is key to Everton's attacking chances.

In Fellaini's continued absence, there's a good chance Moyes will play  two strikers - as he did in the 1-0 home win over Stoke City last week. Nikica Jelavic isn't in good form, but is likely to spearhead the side with Victor Anichebe playing behind him, and told to drop back into midfield without the ball. Anichebe, Mirallas and Coleman will be crucial on the break, while Jelavic might find himself playing as a functional target man, trying to bring others into play rather than being a significant goal threat himself.

Everton must attack here - Moyes would usually be happy with a point in this fixture, but to continue his challenge for a Champions League slot, an away win is vital. With Spurs tired after a draining Europa League draw with Basel on Thursday and missing key players for their usual gameplan, Everton should have a decent chance of a result, so I'll lay Spurs at 2.226/5.

There's also a decent chance of both sides scoring - that's happened in five of Spurs' last six matches, and in the vast majority of Everton's away fixtures, too. 1.855/6 is a good price to back in that market.

Recommended bets:
Lay Spurs at 2.226/5
Back Both Teams To Score at 1.855/6

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Aston Villa v Liverpool: Spoils to be shared in entertaining match

"Away from Anfield Liverpool have won just four Premier League games this season, losing five and drawing six."

Back the draw @ 4.03/1

Paul Robinson looks ahead at Easter Sunday's lunchtime kick off between the struggling Aston Villa and the inconsistent Liverpool...

Aston Villa v Liverpool  
Sunday March 31, 13.30 GMT
Live on Sky Sports One

Aston Villa have managed to haul themselves out of the relegation zone thanks to back to back wins against fellow strugglers Reading and QPR. They now sit in 17th, three points clear of Wigan, but they have played a game more and have an inferior goal difference. 

Paul Lambert's side also beat West Ham back in February and while they have lost two of their last five, the defeats came at Arsenal and at home to Manchester City. Those losses were only by one goal margins and despite conceding two against QPR last time, the defence has tightened up a bit in recent weeks.

Christian Benteke is of course the main man for Villa, scoring in four of his last five at Villa Park. He didn't manage to find the net in either of Belgium's two games against Macedonia though and that concerns me slightly. His success on Sunday could depend on the inclusion of Jamie Carragher, or to be more precise, the exclusion of Martin Skrtel.

Liverpool's player of the season last year has been terrible under Brendan Rodgers and has finally been axed for the veteran Carragher. The Slovak defender seems more concerned with wrestling his man than clearing the ball and he has been at fault for a number of goals this season. Carragher may be very much past his best, but he still does the basics well and the whole defence seems more assured with him cajoling and organising them throughout the 90 minutes.

The Reds have been largely inconsistent of late - convincing wins or desperate defeats. It was the latter last time out at Southampton as Brendan Rodgers picked the wrong side from the off and was made to pay. The former Swansea manager started with Gerrard and Allen as the holding midfielders, even though it's been proven time after time that those two don't work together in that position as they don't protect the back four well enough. That is essential when deploying full backs who are encouraged to get forward and one of Lucas Leiva or Jordan Henderson need to be in the team.

Away from Anfield Liverpool have won just four Premier League games this season, losing five and drawing six. The victories did come at Norwich, West Ham, QPR and Wigan though, so it could be argued that they've become flat track bullies as Southampton are the only team in the bottom nine that they've lost to.

This match seems very hard to call but I wouldn't want to be backing Liverpool at 1.794/5 given their inconsistent nature. Of course they could go on to thrash Villa and I'd look silly, but they seem too short in the market. The home side can be backed at 5.04/1 and there could be some mileage in that as they will start the game full of confidence given recent wins and the fact they won 3-1 at Anfield back in December.

I'm more interested in the draw though at the prices. It can be backed at 4.03/1 and I like it because Paul Lambert would probably take a point from this fixture and Liverpool have drawn 40% of their away matches this season. 

Over 2.5 goals is currently trading at around the 1.748/11 mark but I'd much rather back 'Yes' in the Both Teams To Score Market at the same price as Liverpool have conceded nine in their last five away from Anfield while scoring at least once themselves in each of the last nine.

As for a correct score, I think you can't go far wrong in backing both 1-1 and 2-2 at 9.08/1 and 17.016/1 respectively. Not only do they seem overpriced to me, they should both be good to trade if that's your kind of thing.

Recommended Bets
Back the draw @ 4.03/1  
Back 'Yes' in BTTS Market @ 1.748/11
Back 1-1 @ 9.08/1  
Back 2-2 @ 17.016/1  

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Torneo Final Big Match preview: Weakened Vélez will still test River's impressive home form

"Expect some early tentative prodding and probing before the game settles, and it should all open up once one team has scored."

Back Draw/River on the HT/FT @ 5.79/2

There are many games in Argentina this weekend that could be deemed important or intriguing enough to be labelled our 'big match' this week, but the defending champions visiting a potential champion just about pips it. Ed Malyon takes a look...

Vélez Sarsfield head into the city to play River Plate in a fascinating game between two of the best sides in the country right now.

River seem to permanently have one of the strongest playing squads in the league but the unique set of circumstances surrounding the club, especially the pressure or playing for such a giant, mean that things have rarely been plain-sailing for the Millionarios in recent seasons.

Having returned from their humiliating relegation to the Primera B in 2011, Matías Almeyda failed to make a talented squad into a genuine contender and left his post in late 2012.

Ramón Diaz returned to the club as manager, and 2013 has started very well for the club.

At the beginning of the weekend they are in third, and although Lanús look a tough act to catch as things stand, the meeting between the two sides later in the campaign is likely to be the championship decider one way or another.

This weekend Diaz has changed his system to a 4-4-2, and it is difficult to know how this will turn out. Leading scorer Diego 'Chino' Luna misses out again, so David Trezeguet will play up front and Rodrigo Mora will be the man charged with doing all his legwork for him. Opting for a 4-4-2 rather than the previously preferred 3-4-1-2 will give River more options in wide areas, so we might see this formation getting the best out of Trezeguet, who has started to find some goalscoring form with two goals in his last three home games.

For all River's ups and downs over the last few years, Vélez have been the very picture of stability and their sustained success on the field is doubtlessly down to the sensible way in which the club is run.

Ricardo Gareca has been given years in the job - a rare luxury on this continent - and continually evolves and regenerates his side, understanding that he must sell his players at the peak of their value in order to maintain progress.

Nonetheless, the quality of his sides rarely waver and the loan signing of Fernando Gago - exceptional for Argentina at the weekend and undoubtedly a top international midfielder - has been a coup for the Fortín.

Gareca has had to rely on youngsters to step up too, but they do so with an alarming regularity and 20-year-old full-back Gino Perruzi made a first Argentina start on Tuesday evening to continue his remarkable development after famously shackling Neymar in last year's Copa Libertadores.

The other thing that Gareca does well is invest, and the purchase of young forward Facundo Ferreyra from Banfield turned out to be inspired as his late-season rush of form turned out to be vital in them winning the Torneo Inicial in December. Probably more importantly though, Vélez can expect to sell him for around five times what they bought him for when his European suitors finally decide to stump up the cash.

This season hasn't begun so well for Vélez, with Gareca admiring that the Copa Libertadores is his priority and playing weakened sides in the league, but for games like this there is little chance of him resting players.

By that token, the side Gareca puts out is expected to be as strong as possible, although Gago (unfit) and Fabian Cubero (suspended) are both missing. They are comfortable in their 4-3-1-2 shape and up against River's tactical experiment they will be undoubtedly be the more settled side, even though River have a touch more quality.

River: Marcelo Barovero; Gabriel Mercado, Leandro González Pirez, Jonathan Bottinelli, Diego Martínez; Carlos Sánchez, Cristian Ledesma, Leonardo Ponzio, Leonel Vangioni; Rodrigo Mora, David Trezeguet.
Vélez: Sosa; Peruzzi, Sabia, Domínguez, Papa; Bella, Cerro, Romero; Insúa; Copete, Pratto.

Match odds

With Vélez having won the last three meetings between these two and River boasting just one victory in their last seven meetings, Gareca's side have the clear advantage in recent times. 

River are obvious favourites at 2.3411/8 given current league position, but also because of how strong they've been at El Monumental this season. Three wins from three will give them much confidence heading into Saturday's match, and the absence of Gago, Cubero and Facundo Ferreyra from the Vélez lineup means that this price seems justified, even if you know that Gareca will always put out a competitive and hard-to-beat XI.

Goals

As touched on before, Vélez will be difficult to break down - even for River - and the central defensive partnership of Sebastián Dominguez and Juan Sabia are very solid at this level. 

Four of Vélez's last 15 games have gone over 2.5 goals, but all of those have been when the Fortín were sticking a few goals past far weaker opposition, something we shouldn't expect at River.

The hosts have seen five of their last 15 go over that mark, and three in eight since Diaz took over. While the price is as short as 1.584/7 the unders are to be avoided, with half of River's 12 home games going overs since they returned to the top flight.

The value lies in the overs at 2.68/5 even though the visitors will look to stay compact.

Other bets

Expect some early tentative prodding and probing before the game settles, and it should all open up once one team has scored. On that model, Draw/River on the HT/FT market looks a tempting bet at 5.79/2 or even just the half-time draw at 2.111/10.

Lucas Pratto's physical approach could trouble River's defence - definitely the hosts' weakest area - so Both Teams to Score is also worth consideration at 2.0621/20.

Recommended Bet
Back Draw/River on the HT/FT @ 5.79/2

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The Big Match Tactical View: West Brom v Tottenham

Spurs have recorded three successive draws in the league
Back the draw at 3.55/2

Michael Cox considers Steve Clarke and Andre Villas-Boas' tactical options ahead of Sunday's match.

West Brom v Tottenham, Sunday 1:30, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: West Brom 3.7511/4, Tottenham 2.26/5, The Draw 3.55/2.

A meeting between two former Jose Mourinho protégés, and two fine tacticians with opposing approaches. Steve Clarke has instructed his sides to be defensive-minded and reactive this season, while Andre Villas-Boas prefers a more adventurous, attacking game.

The general shape of the match is easy to predict - a 4-2-3-1 versus 4-2-3-1, with Tottenham dominating possession, and West Brom defending in two banks of four before counter-attacking quickly. Both coaches, however, have some important selection decisions to make.

Clarke should have Youssouf Mulumbu available following Congo's elimination from the Africa Cup of Nations, but it remains to be seen whether he'll be considered fit to start this match - he'll be tired following his exertions in South Africa, and such a sudden climate change can also have negative consequences upon a player's fitness. Still, his relationship with Claudio Yacob was one of the primary reasons for the Baggies' strong start to the campaign, and Clarke will be keen for Mulumbu to return so Chris Brunt can return to his favoured position, out wide.

The other wide role is up for grabs - Zoltan Gera is out for the season, a great shame considering some of his performances this season, while Peter Odemwingie won't take part after his amusing deadline day activities. Instead, Jerome Thomas is an option, but Clarke might go for the more defensive-minded Graham Dorrans from the start, before opening up later on. Upfront, Romelu Lukaku has ousted Shane Long to become West Brom's main striker, and will be the primary goalscoring threat.

Villas-Boas must decide whether to give a full debut to new signing Lewis Holtby, or continue with Clint Dempsey in the role behind Jermain Defoe. Villas-Boas would prefer to ease Holtby in gently, but Dempsey hasn't been particularly impressive in recent weeks, and Villas-Boas might learn from the Hugo Lloris-Brad Friedel episode, and simply play his new signing immediately. The man in this role, up against the combination of Mulumbu and Yacob, will be particularly important for Spurs, but Holtby seems better suited to provide both a passing option, and a goalscoring threat.

At the back, Villas-Boas' rotation at centre-back has been frustrating. Against Lukaku, he'll want both strength and pace - Michael Dawson and Jan Vertonghen seems a good bet - but more important is the positioning of the backline. They're likely to play high up the pitch, which means that Lukaku will try to sprint in behind, and might have a running battle with the linesman, as well as Dawson, who is Spurs' slowest defender.

Another key clash is Gareth Bale against Billy Jones - the West Brom right-back has been impressive this season, but sometimes is too keen to attack, and leaves too much space behind him in counter-attacking situations. West Brom need  to offer him support on that side, which is another reason to think Dorrans might get the nod.

Clarke will be particularly keen for James Morrison to find space in the role behind Lukaku. He's excellent at drawing wide into pockets of space near the flanks, creating overloads to manufacture crossing situations. Villas-Boas likes his sides to press in midfield, which can leave the defence - especially the full-backs - exposed. If Morrison takes up clever positions to facilitate quick West Brom attacks, Tottenham will struggle to keep a clean sheet.

A draw looks a decent bet here, but it's worth considering that West Brom have recorded only four draws this season (the second fewest in the Premier League) and Tottenham have picked up just six (joint-fourth fewest). Still, Spurs have drawn their last three Premier League games, while West Brom are in poor form but have performed impressively against top-half sides at home this season. The draw, at 3.55/2, is just about good value.

Recommended bet:
Back the draw at 3.55/2

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Lee Dixon: Liverpool to run title-chasing City very close in Sunday's big match

"Mancini’s men can simply not afford to let that gap at the top get any bigger than the current seven points."

Back Draw/Man City in the Half Time/Full time market @ 5.79/2

Lee Dixon thinks it's imperative for Manchester City to win at home to Liverpool after two dropped points against QPR. They should do it, but it won't be easy...

Man City v Liverpool
Sun 3rd Feb, 4pm, Live on Sky Sports 1

In what was a great game at the Emirates earlier in the week, Liverpool played very well in spells against a dynamic Arsenal team and on another day could have emerged with three points. Jamie Carragher rolled back the years, putting in a magnificent performance at the back and although Liverpool conceded a lot of space and chances at the back in the second half, mainly due to the pace of Theo Walcott, Brendan Rodgers will be reasonably encouraged. Although his level of performance was extremely high against Arsenal, two games in four days may be a bit too much to ask of Carragher at the age of 35, so the manager will have a decision to make on whether to play the veteran again on Sunday. His experience could be valuable, but City's movement is breathtaking at times and could be difficult for him to deal with.

This is a really important game for Manchester City when we consider that United should win fairly easily at Fulham. Mancini's men can simply not afford to let that gap at the top get any bigger than the current seven points. The draw against QPR was two points dropped as far as Mancini will be concerned, and although they're a team fighting for their lives, those are the sort of games City need to ruthlessly win if they want to defend their title this season.

So, all of that points to City being desperate to record another win and put the pressure onto United and I think they'll do it, but only just. Despite being slightly off the pace in their quest for the title, Man City have now recorded six clean sheets in a row and haven't conceded a single goal in January. Based on how Liverpool struggled with Arsenal's movement in the week I can see them having the same issues with City and for that reason I think they'll come out on top. That said, Liverpool are in decent form themselves so I can't imagine them letting City have it all their own way.

I very much like the look of backing Draw/Man City in the Half Time/Full Time market. That's currently trading at 5.79/2 and looks the best bet given that I can see City nicking this 1-0 10.09/1 or 2-0 11.5n/a late on. It'll be a fascinating encounter because as well as City needing the win, Liverpool now have serious ambitions of challenging for a top four position and their fans will be expecting a performance. They could potentially close the gap to four points themselves if they can record a famous win, but that will be a very difficult task indeed; City have only lost one Premier League game at home all season and have also conceded just nine goals.

Recommended Bets

Draw/Man City in the Half Time/Full time market @ 5.79/2
Man City to win 1-0 in the Correct Score market @ 10.09/1

Brendan Rodgers' side are improving, but remain inconsistent and will have significant problems coping with Manchester City's forwards. The movement of Carlos Tevez in behind Sergio Aguero will probably cause problems - Lucas Leiva hasn't been the same player since his return from injury, and I thought Liverpool were fortunate to concede only twice against Arsenal in midweek. But six clean sheets in a row for City is the major statistic to consider here - and it makes 3.2 for them to keep another looks a very good back.

Liverpool put up a very good display in their last game at the Emirates. However, they still haven’t managed to beat a side in the top half of the Premier League all season. When Liverpool have faced top six opposition they have conceded twice in seven of the eight games, the only exception a 1-1 draw at Chelsea.

As Lee says Man City have only conceded nine goals at the Etihad, it should be noted however that six of those goals were conceded against top six opposition (Man Utd three times and single goals against Spurs, Everton and Arsenal). I don’t see City slipping up here and I like them to win this to nil but wouldn’t take anything less than 3.9. I shall also back them to win 2-0 @ 11.5.

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Cricket Betting: New Zealand no match for England's strength in depth

"England should be strong enough to overcome New Zealand in all three formats. The Black Caps won the limited overs series in South Africa, but it was against a side weakened at times by suspension and injury, neither of which are concerns for England."

England's cricket team have arrived in Auckland ahead of their series against New Zealand. Richard O'Hagan takes a look at the make-up of the squads and at how the tour might pan out.

If you want some insight into the craziness of the international cricket schedule, consider this: England have just played a one day series in India while New Zealand finished a similar series in South Africa on Friday. Now both have trekked all of the way down to the Land of the Long White Cloud to face each other. That's a lot of air miles.

There were few surprises in the squads announced by England. Stuart Broad is restored to full fitness and to all three squads. Graeme Swann, Jonny Bairstow and Jonathan Trott come back after their breaks from the one day game. Eoin Morgan and Samit Patel having both failed in the number six slot in the Test side, and Joe Root having been a success there, it was obvious who was going to be picked and who wasn't.

There are a couple of interesting tweaks, though. Chris Woakes replaces Tim Bresnan, whose Test bowling average since elbow surgery a year ago is now over 55 and who, it has been decided, will remain in England to have the problem looked at again. Craig Kieswetter finally loses hold of the one day wicket-keeping spot, not to Matt Prior but to Jos Buttler. New Zealand will see that as an area of potential weakness, because Buttler's record in both ODIs and T20Is is inferior to Kieswetter's in every way. 

The most interesting change came two days after the squads were announced, when left arm spinner Danny Briggs had to pull out of the tour with injury. Rather than bring in another specialist spinner, the selectors simply added Root to the T20 squad, relying upon his developing off-spin despite his failure to take a wicket in India. Spin will play less of a role in New Zealand but the extra batting strength that Root will also provide might make it hard for the likes of Bairstow to find their way back into the matchday 11.

Even with these changes England should be strong enough to overcome New Zealand in all three formats. The Black Caps won the limited overs series in South Africa, but it was against a side weakened at times by suspension and injury, neither of which are concerns for England. They may well scrape one of the three games, which makes a 2-1 England win at around 3.02/1 look the best bet. 

In the Test series they looked horribly out of their depth, will again be missing former captain Daniel Vettori and at 3.02/1 a 3-0 series win for England looks a good bet indeed.

Recommended Bet
Back England at around 3.02/1 to win the ODI series 2-1

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The Big Match Tactical View: Juventus v Napoli

The midfield battle featuring Gokhan Inler, Valon Behrami, Claudio Marchisio and Arturo Vidal should be fiery
Back a second-off at 3.412/5

Juventus have a long unbeaten record to protect, while Napoli struggle away from home against the big boys - can Walter Mazzarri's side pull off a shock victory?

Juventus v Napoli, Saturday 5:00, Betfair Live Video.

Match Odds: Juventus 1.794/5, Napoli 5.04/1, The Draw 3.9n/a.

It's impossible to consider Napoli's chances of winning this match without recalling their dreadful record away top 5 clubs in the past couple of seasons - they've collected just two points and conceded 18 goals in those eight games. We also have to bear in mind that Juventus are unbeaten in 46 league games, and are yet to lose at their new stadium.

Yet Juve have recently lost to Napoli - in the Coppa Italia final back in May, when Walter Mazzarri recorded a 2-0 victory over Antonio Conte thanks to an Edinson Cavani penalty and a Marek Hamsik breakaway goal. The subsequent 4-2 Supercoppa debate was followed by Napoli complaints about controversial refereeing decisions - this now feels like a proper rivalry, and with both sides on 19 points from a possible 21 at the top of the table, this is a huge game.

Tactically, it should be fascinating. 3-5-2 is now Juventus' default shape, but Conte originally started using that formation exclusively against other sides who played three at the back - primarily Udinese and Napoli. "All teams who play 3-5-2 cause us problems," admits Mazzarri - so it's difficult to see Conte choosing any other system.

Conte is a big admirer of Christian Maggio, Napoli's right-wing-back, and his decision to change formation last year was partly to get a player tracking him up and down the line. Marcelo Estigarribia wasn't good enough defensively to stop him at the San Paolo, but Paolo De Ceglie did a good job in Turin and he could start ahead of Kwadwo Asamoah here. On the other side, Stephane Lichtsteiner is a better player than Juan Zuniga, and will force the Colombian back towards his own goal.

In the centre of midfield, there should be a frantic two-versus-two clash - Gokhan Inler and Valon Behrami against Claudio Marchisio and Arturo Vidal. All are mobile, combative and feisty - this will be a tremendous battle.

More crucial, however, is the contest between Juvents' deep-lying playmaker Andrea Pirlo and Napoli attacking midfielder Hamsik. The Slovakian successfully nullified Pirlo last season, although at the expense of his own attacking ability - he needs to stop Pirlo playing forward passes, but then storm forward on the break, turning Juve's probable three-versus-two advantage at the back into a more dangerous three-versus-three.

Mazzarri rarely makes surprise selection decisions - a minor change in defence might be on the cards, but that's about it - but Conte's selection upfront is unknown. So far this season he's favoured Sebastian Giovinco behind Mirko Vucinic, but reports from Italy suggest he'll favour a combination of Alessandro Matri and Naples-born Fabio Quagliarella. If I were Conte, I'd go for Matri to hold the ball up and occupy the Napoli centre-backs, then tell Giovinco to float around in the hole just behind, taking advantage of the fact neither Inler nor Behrami are natural holders, and will be drawn higher up into a midfield battle.

The game's star player is Cavani - likely to be fielded upfront with support from Goran Pandev to his right. Cavani has a decent record against Juventus and, will hope Maggio and Zuniga get forward and supply him with crosses.

There have been 24 goals in the last six games between these sides in all competitions, and it's unusual - but right in this case - to see Over 2.5 goals at 1.865/6 in a match between Serie A's top two. Still, I don't see a great deal of value in that market. Instead, I like the look of a sending-off at around 3.613/5, primarily because of the aforementioned midfield battle - but also because of the past refereeing controversies, which will make this a tempestuous encounter.

Recommended bet:
Back a second-off at 3.412/5

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Men's US Open: Selections for every match played on Tuesday

"Lorenzi has yet to win a set off the Serb in either of their previous meetings and I can't see any reason for that to change here. Djokovic is in good shape and will fancy a tilt at the title."

Abelson Info are back to give a brief preview and selection in every one of today's Men's Singles first round matches...

David Goffin v Thomas Berdych (6) 16:00 Louis Armstrong Stadium
H-to-H 0-0
Goffin is having a decent season and under normal circumstances could expect get through a few rounds here, but unfortunately for him he's drawn Berdych - end of story.
Selection: Berdych

Nicolas Almagro (11) v Radek Stepanek 16:00 Court 17
H-to-H 0-2
On clay it would be Almagro every time, but Stepanek is always a loose cannon capable of springing a surprise. So don't be surprised when he wins in five.
Selection: Stepanek

Santiago Giraldo v Milos Raonic (15) 16:00 Court 11
H-to-H 1-1
Raonic is one of the coming stars and should be due to make his breakthrough at a Grand Slam sooner rather than later - Giraldo won't prove to be a major obstacle at this stage.
Selection: Raonic

Thomaz Bellucci v Pablo Andujar 16:00 Court 4
H-to-H 2-0
Bellucci won the Gstaad tournament in July and Andujar hasn't had much match time in the US so we take Bellucci to improve on his head-to-head stats with Andujar.
Selection: Bellucci

Ivo Karlovic v Jimmy Wang 16:00 Court 7
H-to-H 0-0
Although Karlovic hasn't played since Wimbledon, he should be too powerful for qualifier Wang and is a dangerous floater in his part of the draw.
Selection: Karlovic

Andy Roddick (20) v Rhyne Williams 18:00 Arthur Ashe Stadium
H-to-H 0-0
Roddick comes here with some hard court form after winning an event just prior to the Olympics. It appears to me that he has a new lease of life recently and if he can maintain that level of concentration then he could go deep. The young American Williams isn't in this league but he has done alright on the Challenger Tour and has shown some aptitude for clay.
Selection: Roddick

Karol Beck v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (5) 18:00 Grandstand
H-to-H 0-0
When will Tsonga win his first Grand Slam? He has all the ability, has beaten all the top guys in meaningful tournaments, but somehow lacks the self-belief to make the breakthrough. He obviously has a chance this year in New York, although he lost to Isner last week. He should beat Beck easily on his way to a possible quarter-final with Andy Murray and a re-match after their Wimbledon semi.
Selection: Tsonga

Nicolas Mahut v Philipp Petzschner 18:00 Court 13
H-to-H 1-0
Both players, middle-ranking journeymen, have been on the circuit for over a decade and have never met in an ATP match, only meeting once in a Challenger Tour game. Close but Mahut to end on top.
Selection: Mahut

Steve Darcis v Malek Jaziri 18:00 Court 12
H-to-H 0-1
Up until recently I would have said this is a little bit of a toss of a coin. Jaziri has won their one meeting and would take some encouragement from that. It is Darcis however that is holding all the form after a nice run at the Olympics and then backing it up with a few good wins on the hard courts.
Selection: Darcis

Sam Querrey (27) v Yen-Hsun Lu 18:30 Louis Armstrong Stadium
H-to-H 2-0
Querrey has had a good US leg of the ATP tour, culminating in a semi-final appearance in Winston-Salem Open last week and should have a successful US Open starting with victory over Lu.
Selection: Querrey

Sergiy Stakhovsky v Stanislas Wawrinka (18) 20:00 Court 8
H-to-H 0-0
Stakhovsky is one of those players who really is better than his ranking suggests. If he puts it together he is a better player than many of those in the seedings. His problem here is that he comes up against an in form Wawrinka. He got a couple of good scalps last week and it took Federer to stop him the semis.
Selection: Wawrinka

Dennis Novikov v Jerzy Janowicz 20:00 Court 10
H-to-H 0-0
It is fair to say that Novikov is about to have the biggest day of his career so far. At a world ranking of 1099 I wouldn't expect him to be grabbing many headlines. Janowicz is no superstar but he has won his last two tournaments on the Challenge Tour (albeit on clay courts) and will be confident here.
Selection: Janowicz

Edouard Roger-Vasselin v Fabio Fognini 20:00 Court 14
H-to-H 1-0
There isn't an awful lot to recommend either of these guys coming into such a big tournament. At least one of them will get a W next to their name. Roger-Vasselin is getting beat by all sorts of players on all sorts of surfaces so that doesn't look too promising. At least Fognini is showing up and playing some reasonable stuff.
Selection: Fognini

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez v Juan Monaco (10) 20:30 Grandstand
H-to-H 1-4
A little bit of a clay court specialist battle but make no mistake they do both have some decent results on hard courts too. I think it is a poor state of affairs that someone as limited as Monaco is the tenth seed but it is no mistake so he does merit it. Garcia-Lopez has some big shots but he often comes up short on the big occasion. I don't particularly like putting faith in Monaco but I may have to here.
Selection: Monaco

Julien Benneteau (31) v Olivier Rochus 20:30 Court 11
H-to-H 1-1
This is one for the purist. Rochus is still trying as hard as ever against the giants of the modern day game. Benneteau can still produce some really good tennis and is most likely at a stage of his career where he is more likely to come good on the big stage.
Selection: Benneteau

Marcos Baghdatis v Matthias Bachinger 20:30 Court 7
H-to-H 3-0
It is great to see Baghdatis still delighting the crowds - and he can still play you know. This will be a pretty good match up for the Cypriot as Bachinger doesn't really do hard courts. I can't see anything other than a comfortable win for the crowd favourite.
Selection: Baghdatis

Rogerio Dutra Silva v Teymuraz Gabashvili 22:00 Court 15
H-to-H 0-0
An intriguing clash between two guys who are more used to clay court clashes. The Brazilian will be especially put out to switch to hard courts but surely at a grand slam event he can put that to one side. Gabashvili has some game but he is not in any sort of form so this really is up for grabs.
Selection: Gabashvili

Alexandr Dolgopolov (14) v Jesse Levine 22:30 Court 17
H-to-H 0-0
Levine can play and this will be no walk in the park for his seeded opponent. If the Russian isn't on his game then we could be in for a tight tussle. However, Dolgopolov does have serious game and if he comes in focused then this could be a demonstration.
Selection: Dolgopolov

Carlos Berlocq v Bernard Tomic 22:30 Court 13
H-to-H 1-0
Tomic had a disappointing grass season but has bounced back a little since with only Federer and Djokovic getting in his way. With some confidence and maybe a little less expectation he could well here. Berlocq is no mug though and has beaten Tomic before so he is to be taken seriously.
Selection: Tomic

Paolo Lorenzi v Novak Djokovic (2) 00:00 Arthur Ashe Stadium
H-to-H 0-2
Lorenzi is a bit unlucky with the draw but those are the breaks and there is a fair chance he wouldn't have progressed past a lot of the draw. He has yet to win a set off the Serb in either of their previous meetings and I can't see any reason for that to change here. Djokovic is in good shape and will fancy a tilt at the title.
Selection: Djokovic

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Rugby Championship Match Pack: New Zealand v Australia

I cannot think of a more overrated player in world rugby than Cooper at the moment.

Recommended Bet
1pt New Zealand to win by 1-12.5 points at 3.39/4

Fresh from last week's defeat, Australia face a fearsome proposition when they take on the world champions on Saturday. The absence of David Pocock is a big blow to the Wallabies, says Geoffrey Riddle...

New Zealand v Australia, Saturday 08:45

• New Zealand have not lost to Australia in Auckland since 1986.

• New Zealand made eight clean breaks last week and beat defenders twice as many times as the Wallabies.

• The last time the two played there was in the Rugby World Cup semi-final. New Zealand were without Dan Carter and Australia played with David Pocock. The Wallabies lost 20-6.

• Not only have Australia lost captain and key openside flanker David Pockock, but Sekope Kepu, the tighthead prop, also misses out with a knee injury.

• There will be a completely different head-to-head on that side of the scrum as Tony Woodock, the All Black loosehead, also misses out and has been replaced by Wyatt Crockett.

• With Pocock leading Australia last week they still leaked more turnovers than New Zealand.

Match Preview

Australia endured the ignominy of failing to register a bonus point against New Zealand last week and must dust themselves off to face the world's best side in Auckland on Saturday. The Wallabies were within a score until Dan Carter slotted a penalty to take the score to 27-19 in Sydney.

The return leg, which sees the Bledisloe Cup in danger of remaining in All Black hands for a total of ten years, looks a fearsome proposition for Australia, who will be without their best player.

David Pocock was crucial to Australia's effort of keeping tabs on their trans-Tasman rivals last week but the inspirational skipper is injured and is in danger of missing the autumn internationals. Pocock very much helped Australia to obtain decent ball, which if they had not wasted with several unforced errors the scoreboard may well have had a different complexion.

His absence will be even more keenly felt by the side after coach Robbie Deans decided to hand Quade Cooper a recall. I cannot think of a more overrated player in world rugby than Cooper at the moment. At the World Cup he was a real hindrance to the Wallaby cause. He needed to be shunted out to fullback so that he could be shielded from heavy traffic. In professional rugby there is simply no excuse for not being able to tackle. Even Charlie Hodgson is finally learning the art. Tackling has always been about technique and guts, which Cooper clearly has little of either.

What's more, at the World Cup even his fleet of foot and sleight of hand failed him. Going into the semi-final against New Zealand he had made just two line breaks in 400 minutes of play. Quite what we are to expect, after all of this time off from international rugby, is anyone's guess. My personal belief is not very much against the All Blacks. Cooper can have his sublime moments going forward, but that is usually when Pocock is in the ascendancy and his pack provide good, quick, clean ball. With Australia's star openside very much coming off second best last week against Richie McCaw and Co, the Wallabies have little hope of being on the front foot throughout the 80 minutes.

It's all too easy to assume, however, that just because Australia are hamstrung at the breakdown, and in defence through the No.10 channel, they are immediately in line for a thrashing. Sure, Dan Carter was not around when New Zealand prevailed in the World Cup semi-final but even with the Cantabrian it is questionable whether the home side should be over two converted tries better at kick-off.

New Zealand were not profitable to back on handicaps of this size at home in the Tri-Nations and Australia may well be up against it, but not as much as the odds-makers might have you believe.

Recommended Bet
1pt New Zealand to win by 1-12.5 points at 3.39/4

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Rugby Championship Match Pack: Argentina v South Africa

South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.

Recommended Bet
Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6

It should be great occasion in Mendoz on Saturday and Argentina thoroughly deserve their Rugby Championship status. However, whether they can produce a performance that will please their fans is another matter, says Geoffrey Riddle.

Argentina v South Africa, Saturday 20:10

• At the World Cup Argentina played three teams ranked inside the world's top ten: England, Scotland and New Zealand. They scored 35 points in those three matches.

• Subsequently they have played Italy, France twice and South Africa scoring 76 points in those four matches.

• Argentina did not manage to beat any defenders last week in the 27-6 loss to South Africa. What's more they only had 37 per cent territory.

• In contrast, South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.

• In those nine matches South Africa have conceded only eight tries, three of which were in the 36-27 defeat of England in Johannesburg in June.

• Santiago Phelan made just one change to the side that lost 27-6 last week to the Springboks. Martin Rodriguez, the Stade Francais player, replaced Luca Gonzalez Amorosino at fullback but then it was revealed that Juan Martin Hernandez suffered a torn leg muscle in a brutal training session.

• South Africa have some serious injury worries with Pierre Spies ruled out with a broken thumb, while Bryan Habana and Andries Bekker rolled their ankles and missed trainer earlier this week.

Match Preview

Oh to be in Mendoza this weekend for Argentina's debut Test at home against South Africa in the Rugby Championship. Any rugby fan worth his salt and a few thousand quid in the bank should consider it as it promises to be a wonderful occasion... on the pitch.

The home side fully deserve this historic Test after all of the sweat, tears and blood shed by previous Pumas players to get Argentina admitted to the sacred Southern Hemisphere clique but, as mentioned in last week's column, Argentina are barely better than Scotland right now.

As far as statistics go there is little to go on as teams as good as South Africa rarely make it to the depths of South America. What we can deduce, however, is that when teams as good as the Springboks take on teams as bad as Argentina they should be priced as favourites by around six to nine points, which at 8.5 is where Betfair have placed their handicap line.

Where there could be room for manoeuvre, however, is in the total points markets. According to my ratings, matches such as this should have a total points spread of around 41-44, but that is before you take into account Argentina's lamentable efforts to score not only last week, but going back 12 months.

Argentina simply cannot keep the scoreboard ticking over against the better teams. Currently their game plan and their lack of match practice at the highest level results in a lack of serious penetration.

Of course, they have some sublime players, but until the competition wears on, and provided they still have their wonderful spirit and outlook, that simply won't change.

Argentina of course have played only a handful of serious matches in 2012 and although they should improve from last week's run-out they should struggle to accumulate points, let alone cross the whitewash, especially without Hernandez.

Recommended Bet
Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6

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Wigan v Chelsea: Blues can edge tight match

Recommended Bets
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.9n/a
Back 0-1 Correct Score @ 8.415/2
Back Half Time Draw @ 2.47/5
Back 9pts or Above Bookings Odds @ 2.021/1

Wigan entertain Chelsea at home this Sunday lunchtime with both teams looking to begin the season as they ended the last. The Latics will be hopeful of avoiding yet another relegation battle while the Blues appear set up to challenge for the title, writes Feizal Rahman.

Wigan Athletic v Chelsea, KO: Sunday 13:30, Sky Sports 1,
Match Odds: Wigan 6.411/2, Chelsea 1.664/6, The Draw 4.03/1

Despite winning the FA Cup and Champions League, Chelsea have spent heavily over the summer to address what was a disappointing Premier League campaign last year - lavishing in excess of £60m on Eden Hazard, Oscar and Marko Marin.

Wigan have lost forward Hugo Rodellega and midfielder Mohamed Diame but were able to add Arouna Kone and Ryo Miyaichi (loan). Yet, perhaps their most important piece of business was keeping hold of manager, Roberto Martinez.

Victor Moses is in the Latics' squad despite being the subject of interest from the Blues over the summer. Two of Chelsea's new boys, Hazard and Oscar, are set to make their league debuts, though Marin is sidelined with a hamstring injury.

Match Odds
Since gaining promotion to the Premier League, Wigan have won only two of their opening home games of the season and have twice lost to Chelsea in those. The Blues, conversely, have won eight of their last 10 openers on the road.

Chelsea have traditionally found the DW Stadium a happy hunting ground with five wins from seven visits. However, the Latics' sole victory against the West Londoners did come at home with a 3-1 victory against 10 men back in 2009.

Opta note that Wigan won their final four fixtures at home last season, a run that helped ensure their top flight survival. In contrast, Chelsea took maximum points in only one of their last nine away trips, losing four of those.

This fixture hints at being a typically tight first game of the season with both sides looking to blow away the cobwebs. However, Chelsea should have enough class to sneak the win at 1.664/6 and are around 2.26/5 to do so with a -1.0 Asian handicap.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Chelsea were far from prolific on the road last term, firing blanks in four of their last nine games in the league and failing to score more than once in all but one of those. Wigan, meanwhile, conceded just five from their final seven at home.

The visitors have twice won by a single goal at the DW Stadium and with their superior defence can be taken to repeat a 0-1 Correct Score at 8.415/2. Under 2.5 Goals trades at 1.981/1 but under 1.5 Goals may have greater appeal at 3.9n/a.

Other Markets

The Blues parted company with their talismanic striker, Didier Drogba, following the Champions League win and the goalscoring burden will now fall heavily on Fernando Torres, who has admitted he wasn't in the right frame of mind last season.

The Spaniard has, however, shown signs of a renaissance over the summer with goals in the European Championships and the Community Shield last weekend. He can be backed at 5.04/1 to be First Goalscorer and 2.26/5 To Score at any time.

In the 12 away games since Chelsea's last visit to Wigan, Roberto Di Matteo's side have led at half time just twice. Wigan, meanwhile, have trailed at the break on two occasions in their last eight home fixtures. The half-time draw is available at 2.47/5.

These were two of the most ill-disciplined teams last term with 114 cautions between them. Opta also highlight that Wigan committed the most fouls of any team, so 9pts and Above in the Bookings Odds at 2.021/1 may reward.

Recommended Bets
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.9n/a
Back 0-1 Correct Score @ 8.415/2
Back Half Time Draw @ 2.47/5
Back 9pts or Above Bookings Odds @ 2.021/1

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The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Manchester City

Premier League / Michael Cox / 08 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

The battle for possession in the centre of the pitch will be key

"Arsenal need to make sure they're not caught out by City's clever short corners to the edge of the box"

Both Arsenal and Manchester City need a win in the weekend's biggest Premier League game. Michael Cox doesn't expect too many changes in the line-ups.

Arsenal v Manchester City, Sunday 4:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Arsenal [2.44], Man City [3.55], The Draw [3.15].

The last two Arsenal v Manchester City matches at the Emirates have finished 0-0 - but both were played when City had a very different mentality, when they were content with a point in a match like this. Now, with Manchester United likely to have extended their lead to eight points by the time this game kicks off, City really need a win.

Therefore, Roberto Mancini has some big decisions ahead of this match. The biggest question is whether Sergio Aguero is fit to return from injury - if so, he'll start behind the main forward in a 4-2-3-1. If not (which seems more likely), David Silva will probably move inside into that playmaking role. Samir Nasri and James Milner would be a good bet for the flanks, with Mario Balotelli upfront. Despite question marks over the Italian's mentality, Mancini prefers him to Edin Dzeko in big games.

Arsenal's side will probably feature no more than one change from last weekend, despite the defeat to Queens Park Rangers. Aaron Ramsey was poor in an unfamiliar role out on the left, and I think Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain might get a start here instead. Arsene Wenger fielded the youngster in that position at home to Manchester United, and he was arguably the game's key player.

So where will the main battles be? The first issue is possession - Arsenal have more of the ball at home than any side in the league (60.8%), while City enjoy more than any side away (58.3%). Neither are used to the opposition dominating, and I think we'll see a patient midfield battle at the start, while both try to establish superiority.

Arsenal will try to get Tomas Rosicky into space between the lines, but City are generally quite tight in that zone. Instead, a bigger threat might be the rotation of Arsenal's midfield trio - Alex Song has increasingly become a playmaker and moved ahead of Mikel Arteta. Watch for Song's diagonal balls into the space behind Vincent Kompany for Robin van Persie's run.

Another key player - and another likely to combine with van Persie - is Theo Walcott. In a game where the wide players will generally be looking to come inside, I think Walcott could be of real value here by staying wide and high up against his old teammate Gael Clichy. However, as the Frenchman has only picked up four bookings all season (including two in the same match at Chelsea), I'll stay clear of backing him to be shown a card.

At the other end, I think City might try to exploit the space in behind Thomas Vermaelen. The Belgian looks to storm into tackles high up the pitch, and if it's Silva in that deep-lying position, Vermaelen will be drawn too high up from the defence (a mistake he made a couple of times against QPR last week). Balotelli would be the right man to take advantage of that space in the channels.

The second approach will be looking for space between the Arsenal midfield and defence - while Song's attacking contribution this season has been excellent, he and Arteta can neglect their defensive responsibilities, and Arsenal's full-backs don't like being drawn into central positions. I can imagine a Silva coming inside to play a through-ball, and Balotelli running into the ball for a one-on-one.

The corners market is interesting - Arsenal are the favourites, and City will probably look to defend very deep and force Arsenal down the outside. However, in the home game against Manchester United, Arsenal didn't force a single corner, and if Ramsey plays on the left there'll be little chance of him moving towards the byline. That market is very unpredictable, but on the subject of corners, Arsenal need to make sure they're not caught out by City's clever short corners to the edge of the box, something they've triedin recent weeks, particularly from the left.

Instead, I'll look at the number of goals. City's last seven away Premier League games have seen under 2.5 goals, while Arsenal's main threat Robin van Persie hasn't found the net for 350 minutes, something a drought by his standards. Under 2.5 goals at [2.3] gets my backing.

Recommended bet:
Back under 2.5 goals at [2.3]

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The Big Match Tactical View: Chelsea v Benfica

Champions League / Michael Cox / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Benfica right-back Maxi Pereira might be a decent bet for a booking

"Nicolas Gaitan seemed fairly quiet in the first leg, yet still created seven chances, four more than any other player."

The first leg saw Chelsea snatch a crucial away goal, and now Benfica have to score at Stamford Bridge. Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle.

Chelsea v Benfica, Wednesday 7:45, ITV1.

Match odds: Chelsea [1.77], Benfica [5.5], The Draw [3.9]

Despite the balance of the tie having shifted towards Chelsea, it's difficult to see how the two teams will line-up particularly differently to at the Estadio Da Luz. There are slight doubts over the fitness of a centre-back on either side - David Luiz for Chelsea, and also Jardel, the man who effectively replaced Luiz at Benfica. Aside from that, don't expect any major surprises.

The onus is on Jorge Jesus to get Benfica back into this tie - they must score to prevent elimination. In recent years in Europe, Jesus has often preferred a more cautious approach away from home, with playmaker Pablo Aimar dropping to the bench, and an additional holding midfielder coming into the side. But that was generally when Aimar played at the tip of the diamond behind a front two - now he's fielded behind just one forward, Oscar Cardozo, and I expect that to continue here.

Another option would be to play another striker like Bruno Rodrigo from the start, with Aimar deeper (or on the bench) - but this is probably too offensive, and Benfica will look to get a grip in midfield in the early stages. Rodrigo will probably be introduced around the 70 minute mark if Benfica need a goal, with Aimar (substituted in all six of his Champions League starts this season) likely to give way.

Roberto Di Matteo went with a defensive-minded midfield trio of Raul Meireles, Jon Obi Mikel and Ramires in the first game (no Frank Lampard) - and despite being the home side here, I expect another cautious selection. One difference might be the positioning of Ramires - he's been used as a right-of-centre shuttling midfielder for Chelsea until now, but Di Matteo has often favoured him out on the flank, so don't be surprised to see him out on the right wing instead. A position on the left, to prevent his old teammate Maxi Pereira getting forward from full-back, is not impossible - though that would mean moving Juan Mata. He can play in the centre, of course, but Di Matteo probably wants to be more cautious in that zone.

Mata will probably start out on the left and drift inside, and there's a decent chance that Maxi Pereira will stick too tight and be booked tonight. He's collected 17 cards for club and country this season, and I'll back him to pick up another here, at [3.5].

But this game is about how Benfica can get back into the tie, and there are probably three men Chelsea have to watch, in different ways. Axel Witsel competed 49 passes in the first leg, more than any other player, and Chelsea have to prevent him getting too much time on the ball. Instructing someone like Meireles or Ramires to get tight to him would make sense.

The second threat is Nicolas Gaitan, who seemed fairly quiet in the first leg, yet still created seven chances, four more than any other player. He and Bruno Cesar will have license to switch flanks, and Gaitan is quite clever with how he drifts into deep positions on the flanks to provide crosses. Paolo Ferreira, more comfortable coming up the pitch than Branislav Ivanovic, might be a decent option at right-back.

The third dangerman is Cardozo, who had a staggering eight shots in the first match. He'll simply put himself slightly past the penalty spot when the ball is wide, and despite Luiz's good performance in the first leg, Cardozo will probably look to test him in the air again.

But this might be a reasonably narrow game - Benfica play with something approaching a midfield diamond rather than a flat four, while Chelsea's potential wide players - Juan Mata, Ramires, Daniel Sturridge - are unlikely to force many corners. Therefore, backing 9 or less corners at [2.6] might be a decent option.

Recommended bets:
Maxi Pereira to be shown a card at [3.5]
9 or less corners at [2.6]

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Dylan Hartley hit with eight match ban for biting

Aviva Premiership / Editor / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

England hooker's indiscipline means he won't be available for Saints but he will be free to tour South Africa this summer...

Dylan Hartley may not play again this season after the England hooker was given an eight match ban for biting Stephen Ferris. The incident, which was not spotted by the match refereee, occurred in England 30-9 victory over Ireland at Twickenham in the Six Nations.

The Six Nations committee launched an investigation after Ireland flanker Ferris made the allegations at the end of the match. They examined video evidence and listened to testimonies from Hartley's international and club coaches. Ferris also gave his side of the story via video link to Tuesday's hearing.

Hartley was cited and found guilty of breaking the IRB's law on 'acts contravening good sportsmanship.' His ban means that he will only play for Northampton again this season if they make the Aviva Premiership Final on May 26. They are currently fourth in the table, ten points behind leaders Saracens, and trade at [4.7] in Betfair's Grand Final winner market.

Hartley said he was disappointed and determined to do everything he can to support his club for the rest of their campaign. The offence is a stain on England's encouraging Six Nations performance, which not only involved exciting displays but also showed improved discipline. Hartley will be available for the team's summer tour of South Africa.

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