Premier League Opta Stats: Man United to lead early at West Brom

"West Brom have conceded the highest proportion of first-half goals in the Premier League this season (54%)."
Best Bet: Back Man United to lead at half time at West Brom @ 2.47/5

Michael Lintorn studied the Opta stats to settle upon four bets for this weekend's Premier League games...

West Brom v Man United (Saturday 12:45, BT Sport 1)
West Brom have conceded the highest proportion of first-half goals in the Premier League this season (54%)
The Baggies' slow-start syndrome has worsened under Pepe Mel, with the strugglers trailing at the interval in five of his six matches in charge, including all four at home - none of which they actually lost. Even the one time they weren't behind at the break at Aston Villa, they managed to blow a 2-0 nine-minute lead by half time. Man United were ahead by then on three of their last five Hawthorns visits.
Best Bet: Back Man United to lead at half time @ 2.47/5

Cardiff v Fulham (Saturday, 15:00)
Fulham have gone 13 Premier League away matches without a clean sheet
Cardiff have failed to score in four Premier League outings, but the above stat points to this battle of the bottom two as the perfect impotence cure. Fulham are clean sheet-free in 13 at all venues, yet are at least now scoring regularly, netting in four straight encounters, three of which were against top-seven sides. Six of the Cottagers' seven clashes with bottom-six companions saw both teams bag.
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.774/5

Crystal Palace v Southampton (Saturday, 15:00)
Southampton have only won four of their last 17 Premier League games (W4 D5 L8)
Southampton's fine work earlier this campaign will rightly earn a top-half reward, though their best form is behind them. It isn't just that they have only won four in 17, it is the fact that three of those wins came against the clubs 17th or lower. The Saints have lost their last two games, conceding three in each, and three of their four trips to London. Crystal Palace have won three of their last four at home.
Recommended Bet: Lay Southampton to win @ 2.285/4

Norwich v Stoke (Saturday, 15:00)
An average of 1.2 goals per game makes this the third lowest scoring fixture in Premier League history (using a minimum of five meetings)
Bolton v Southampton (1.17) and Man City v Sheffield United (1.0) join them on the world's dullest podium. The stats indicate that Norwich and Stoke will slim their average further at Carrow Road, where Norwich have kept four successive clean sheets, yet scored just two in five. Stoke have fired seven away blanks in nine, while the last four times that these bottom-half buddies collided, there was a 1-0 winner.
Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.674/6

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FA Cup Opta Stats: Aguero to help Man City get revenge

"Sergio Aguero has scored eight goals in seven FA Cup appearances for Man City."
Best Bet: Back Aguero to score against Wigan @ 1.768/11

Fuelled by Opta's insights, Michael Lintorn recommends a bet for every FA Cup quarter-final tie...

Arsenal v Everton (Saturday, 12:45, ITV)
Everton have won none of their last 19 away games against Arsenal in all competitions (W0 D4 L15)
Everton drew at the Emirates in the Premier League, but that was the only point they snared in five visits to top-five sides. Almost every stat points to Arsenal winning this time at generous odds. The Gunners are unbeaten in 13 domestic home ties, winning ten and conceding just three times. They have cleared ten of their last 11 FA Cup quarter-finals and lost twice ever as hosts in the competition under Arsene Wenger.
Recommended Bet: Back Arsenal to win @ 1.875/6

Sheff Utd v Charlton (Sunday, 12:00, BT Sport 1)
Chris Porter of Sheffield United has scored four goals in six FA Cup appearances this season
As Porter's League One strike rate this term is five in 21 outings, the stats paint him as an FA Cup specialist. However, his admirers can argue that his unremarkable league scoring is due to shuffling in and out of the team, whereas in the FA Cup, he is a protagonist. Either way, cup glory has helped the spot-kick specialist improve his league output, netting twice in his last 81 minutes of pitch time.
Recommended Bet: Back Porter to score @ 3.55n/a

Hull v Sunderland (Sunday, 14:00, ITV)
Hull have kept just two clean sheets in their last 14 FA Cup matches
Steve Bruce has won both meetings with the club that discarded him to nil this season, but expect greater balance to the scoresheet this time around. Hull's reputation as one of the meanest home defences around has been sullied by five KC Stadium ventures without a clean sheet, leaking four against Newcastle, while Sunderland have fired one away blank in seven, compared to six in a row prior to that.
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 2.111/10

Man City v Wigan (Sunday, 16:05, BT Sport 1)
Sergio Aguero has scored eight goals in seven FA Cup appearances for Man City
The stage was set in the Capital One Cup final for Aguero to return from over a month out injured to lead Man City to their first trophy of the campaign, yet his 58-minute comeback wasn't capped with a goal. That was only the third time in 19 games that the Argentine failed to score for the Citizens though, and you have to trawl way back to September 14 to find his last two-match goal "drought".
Best Bet: Back Aguero to score @ 1.768/11

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Opta Stats: West Bromwich Albion v Liverpool

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Opta Stats: Newcastle United v Manchester City

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Opta Stats: Stoke City v Liverpool

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Opta Big Match Stats: Rooney to fire Man United to win

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Opta Big Match Stats: Sturridge to outgun van Persie

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Opta Stats: Manchester City v Newcastle

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Opta Stats: Arsenal v Manchester United

"Arsenal have taken only four points from seven games against the other sides in the top five this season, every other member has at least 10. You can lay an Arsenal win at 2.3211/8."

Manchester United have wrapped up another title and are now honing in on a record points haul. Champions League chasing Arsenal stand in their way.

Arsenal and Man Utd have dropped the joint-fewest points from winning positions in the Barclays Premier League this season (4). The Gunners are 1.758/11 to score the first goal, with United at 2.26/5.

Manchester United have won six and lost one of the last seven Premier League meetings with Arsenal. United are 3.3512/5 to win.

The Gunners have kept just four clean sheets in their last 16 Premier League games at Emirates Stadium. Arsenal are 1.341/3 to concede a goal.

Robin Van Persie has scored in each of his last three appearances where Arsenal have played against Man Utd, twice for the Gunners and last time out for the Red Devils. Van Persie is 2.35n/a to find the net.

Rooney scored his first Premier League goal, his first in the PL for Man Utd and his 100th Premier League goal against Arsenal. The England striker is 2.915/8 to score.

Rooney's 10 goal haul is the highest by a Premier League player against the Gunners (along with Robbie Fowler) and also his joint-highest versus any opponent in the history of the competition. If you think Rooney will open the scoring you can back him at 7.87/1.

Only Arsenal (18) have scored more goals in the final 15 minutes of matches than Manchester United (15). Arsenal are 1.84/5 to score the last goal.

Despite having the best away defence (14 goals conceded), 12 teams have a better home defensive record than the 21 goals shipped by the Gunners at Emirates Stadium. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.774/5.

Robin van Persie has scored 17 goals in his last 17 Premier League appearances at the Emirates. Van Persie is available at 6.05/1 to score the first goal.

Arsenal have taken only four points from seven games against the other sides in the top five this season, every other member has at least 10. You can lay an Arsenal win at 2.3211/8.

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Opta Stats: Reading v QPR

"10 of Reading’s 37 league goals this season have been provided by substitutes. Reading are 1.9520/21 to score the last goal."

Reading face QPR and the loser will be relegated. With the stakes as high as they can be, who will handle the pressure best and live to fight another day?

There have been five red cards in the last five league meetings between QPR and Reading. You can find odds of 3.052/1 on there being a sending off.

Reading are the only team to average less than 40% possession in the Barclays Premier League this season (39%). QPR are 2.9215/8 to defeat them.

QPR have taken one point from their last five Premier league games. A Reading win can be backed at 2.68/5.

Reading have taken one point from their last nine Premier League games. They are 1.664/6 to finish rock bottom of the Premier League.

10 of Reading's 37 league goals this season have been provided by substitutes. Reading are 1.9520/21 to score the last goal.

Only two sides in Premier League history have won fewer games by this stage of the season than QPR (Derby 1 in 07-08 and Sunderland 2 in 05-06). QPR are 2.3811/8 to finish rock bottom.

Whoever loses this match will definitely be relegated. If it is a draw then a point from Aston Villa on Monday night will relegate both sides. The draw is available at 3.613/5.

QPR have gone three hours and five minutes without scoring. A Reading clean sheet is priced at 3.8514/5.

Reading have hit 100 shots on target this season, fewer than any other team. A QPR clean sheet is 4.216/5.

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Opta Stats: Manchester United v Manchester City

"Manchester United (W25 D2) and Manchester City (W18 D2) are two of the three teams yet to lose in the Barclays Premier League this season when they have taken the lead (Arsenal are the other)."

The draw is 3.55n/a.

It may not be the climatic battle at the top of the table that we might have expected, but any Manchester derby is worth tuning in for. As Manchester United host Manchester City, Opta have all the stats to hand...

Manchester United (W25 D2) and Manchester City (W18 D2) are two of the three teams yet to lose in the Barclays Premier League this season when they have taken the lead (Arsenal are the other). The draw is 3.55n/a.

Sir Alex Ferguson's side have won each of their last seven Premier League games and are unbeaten in 18 (D2). Both are Premier League bests for this season. A United win can be backed at 2.35/4.

Including the Community Shield match in 2011, the last five meetings between Manchester City and Manchester United (all comps) have seen 23 goals scored - an average of 4.6 a game. Over 4.5 goals is available at 5.85/1.

Manchester United are the only team yet to concede a penalty in the Premier League this season. The odds of a penalty being take by either side are 3.3512/5.

Only Man City (14) have kept more clean sheets than United so far this season (11). A City clean sheet can be backed at 5.04/1.

35% of the goals Man City have conceded in the league this season have been scored from outside the area (9 of 26); a league high proportion. Manchester United are 1.232/9 to score against City.

Robin van Persie has gone nine successive appearances without a goal in all competitions; this despite attempting 24 shots a goal within his 549 minutes on this pitch during this run. Van Persie is 2.3611/8 to end his barren run.

Manchester United have kept six clean sheets in a row in the Premier League, and have not conceded for 627 minutes in the competition. Only nine sides have gone longer without conceding a goal in the competition, with Manchester United's run of 1334 minutes in 2008-09 the longest. Another United clean sheet is priced at 3.613/5.

Carlos Tevez has now netted seven goals in his last six competitive games for Manchester City. The Argentine is 3.259/4 to score against his former club.

On six occasions this season, Man Utd have conceded the first goal at Old Trafford in the Premier League. They have won five of those six games, losing the other 3-2 to Tottenham. United are 8.5n/a to win from behind.

This will be Manchester United's 51st Premier League game on a Monday. They have won 36, drawn 10 and lost four of the previous 50. It will be Man City's 56th Monday match (W23 D15 L17). Manchester United are 1.645/8 in the draw no bet market.

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Opta Stats: Chelsea v Sunderland

"Chelsea have won 15 of their last 16 Premier League clashes with Sunderland, losing the other. The Blues are 1.748/11 to win to nil."

Paolo Di Canio kicks off his managerial reign at relegation-threatened Sunderland against a Chelsea side aiming to secure a Champions League spot.

Sunderland have won none of their last eight Barclays Premier League matches (D3 L5). A Chelsea win is available at 1.374/11.

Chelsea have won 15 of their last 16 Premier League clashes with Sunderland, losing the other. The Blues are 1.748/11 to win to nil.

The Black Cats' only victory over Chelsea in the league since the end of March 2001 came at Stamford Bridge when they won 3-0 in November 2010. A Sunderland victory can be backed at 12.011/1.

Chelsea are unbeaten in five league matches at Stamford Bridge, winning each of the last four. The double result of Chelsea half-time/Chelsea full-time is priced at 2.01/1.

Fernando Torres has scored six times against Sunderland in the Premier League, including a double in the last meeting between the two. They are his joint favourite opponents (along with West Ham). Torres is 1.910/11 to find the net.

Paolo Di Canio will become the fifth manager (incl. caretakers) to start his time in a Premier League job with a trip to Stamford Bridge. None of the previous four have managed to win (D1 L3). Di Canio's Sunderland are 5.39/2 to become the second newly managed side to grab a draw.

Only Manchester United (13) have scored more headed goals than Chelsea this season (12). Chelsea are 1.051/20 to score a goal.

Sunderland have conceded a league-low four headed goals in the league this season. The Black Cats are 8.07/1 to keep a clean sheet.

John Terry scored his 30th league goal last weekend. Sunderland are one of three teams he has scored against three times (along with Charlton and Arsenal). Terry is 29.028/1 to score the first goal. 

The Black Cats have picked up one point from the three games they have played without Steven Fletcher this season (D1 L2). They are 3.39/4 to be relegated.

Without Fletcher's goals, Sunderland would be rock bottom of the Premier League table with just 21 points from their 31 games. Sunderland are eight points off the bottom of the table and available at 42.041/1 to finish last.

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Opta Stats: Aston Villa v Liverpool

"Christian Benteke has scored eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances, and he netted twice against Liverpool earlier this season. Benteke is 2.915/8 to score."

Aston Villa must win their home games to ensure their safety, but face a Liverpool side aiming for Europe. Who will want it more? Opta reveals all.

Aston Villa have lost just one of their last four Premier League games against Liverpool and won 3-1 away at Anfield earlier this season. You can lay Liverpool at 1.758/11.

Paul Lambert has won all three of his Premier League games against Brendan Rodgers; against no other manager has he secured as many wins. Villa are 5.24/1 to win the match.

Steven Gerrard has scored 10 Premier League goals against Aston Villa; more than against any other opponent. Gerrard is 2.89/5 to find the net.

Gerrard has played every single minute (2700) of Liverpool's Premier League season so far - Matt Lowton (Aston Villa) and Leighton Baines (Everton) are the only other outfield players to have achieved this in 2012-13. The England international is 8.415/2 to score the first goal.

Christian Benteke has scored eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances, and he netted twice against Liverpool earlier this season. Benteke is 2.915/8 to score.

Benteke has scored 11 and assisted three of Aston Villa's last 21 Premier League goals. The Belgian is 7.613/2 to score first.

Luis Suárez has scored 11 goals in his last 11 Premier League appearances. Suarez is 1.910/11 to add to his tally.

Andreas Weimann has scored two and assisted two in his last four Premier League appearances. Weimann is 3.814/5 to find the net.

Aston Villa have not won three successive Premier League matches since April 2010. Liverpool are 1.748/11 to inflict a defeat on the Villains.

Aston Villa have seen their opposition hit the woodwork on five occasions in total in their last four Premier League games. Villa are 6.611/2 to keep a clean sheet.

Luis Suárez has embarked on 249 dribbles in the Premier League this season; 105 more than any other player. Suarez is 5.39/2 to open the scoring.

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Champions League Opta Stats: Draxler to see Schalke through

"Galatasaray have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 away games in the Champions League."
Recommended Bet: Back Julian Draxler to score @ 3.9n/a

Using Opta's insights, Christian Crowther provides some tips to go with the midweek Champions League second-leg action...

Barcelona v AC Milan, Tuesday 19:45, ITV

AC Milan's last seven goals in the Champions League have all been in the second half
AC Milan's domestic resurgence culminated in the best result of the knockout stages so far when they managed to beat Barcelona without conceding an away goal. In light of a trip to the intimidating Camp Nou, the tie is far from over, with qualification possibly hinging on one vital away goal. Five of the last eight goals that the Spaniards have conceded arrived after the break so, if the Italians are to notch, it seems likely to be reserved for the second 45.
Recommended Bet: Back second half to contain more goals @ 2.26/5 

AC Milan have conceded at least three goals in four of their last six away games in the Champions League knockout stages
Stats such as these do not bode well for Milan who have a bad habit of going down in flames when making away trips in the latter stages of the competition. On this occasion, Milan's healthy advantage could see them home but you'd expect Lionel Messi and co to register at least a couple. The Catalans have averaged over three goals a match in the nine home games since they last drew a blank against Benfica.
Recommended Bet: Back Barcelona to score three or more goals @ 2.1211/10  

Schalke v Galatasaray, Tuesday 19:45, Sky Sports 2

Galatasaray have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 away games in the Champions League
This tie is hanging on a knife edge following a tense 1-1 draw in Turkey. The slight advantage lies with the Schalke and the German hosts will be buzzing after completing their third straight Bundesliga win in a row against second-placed Borussia Dortmund at the Veltins-Arena on Saturday. With attacking midfielder Julian Draxler hitting scoring form with three goals in his last two starts, you'd expect to see a confident Schalke side register a few more goals, despite Klaas-Jan Huntelaar's absence.
Recommended Bet: Back Julian Draxler to score @ 3.9n/a  

Galatasaray have scored only eight goals in seven Champions League games this season, the lowest among the 16 teams still left in the competition
Clearly, one of the hindrances to qualification for the Turkish visitors is their inability to score multiple goals. In stark contrast to their hosts, Galatasaray have warmed up for this one with two really poor results in which they have twice failed to trouble the scoresheet. Joint top scorer in this year's competition Burak Yilmaz appears the only man capable of scoring for the Turks, after notching seven of their eight goals to date.
Recommended Bet: Back Schalke to win to nil @ 3.39/4

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Premier League Stats: Liverpool's tough double header to result in nil points

"City have scored in their last 43 Premier League home games, winning 37 (86%), and it would be a surprise if Liverpool were strong enough to shut them out."

Back Manchester City to beat Liverpool @ 1.910/11

After Liverpool's shock loss to Oldham in the FA Cup they now face a tough double header in the Premier League, starting with tonight's trip to Arsenal. Andrew Atherley assesses their chances...

Brendan Rodgers questioned the mental strength of his young Liverpool players following the FA Cup defeat at Oldham and it is something that may be asked again if they come away empty-handed from this week's away double-header at Arsenal and Manchester City.

The signs are not promising for an immediate pick-me-up. Whether it's in the mind or simply a case of a lack of class, Liverpool's players have had particular difficulty in this type of fixture this season. They have the third-worst record against top-half opponents (based on the table prior to this week's fixtures) with no win out of 11 - only Wigan and Southampton have done worse in terms of points per game, and even then only marginally.

On the road Liverpool have drawn three and lost four against top-half teams, but a more telling statistic is that they have kept only one clean sheet in those seven matches, which backs up the argumenr that there is a lack of resolve in Rodgers' team. It is notable also that only West Brom in the top half have conceded more away goals than Liverpool's 18.

Arsenal, Liverpool's first hosts of the week, have a good chance of exploiting that weakness. While they haven't been as strong at home as usual, Arsene Wenger's team still have a good record when scoring at the Emirates (six wins out of eight in the Premier League) and look a decent win bet at 2.47/5 .

Manchester City are shorter, of course, at 1.910/11 for Sunday's home match against Liverpool but they are no less appealing.

City have scored in their last 43 Premier League home games, winning 37 (86%), and it would be a surprise if Liverpool were strong enough to shut them out.

On the other side of the coin, Liverpool have lost half of the 14 Premier League games in which they have conceded under Rodgers. Although both wins in that scenario came on the road, those were against bottom-half sides Norwich and West Ham and Liverpool have lost three of the last four away league games in which they have conceded.

If the premise is correct that both City and Arsenal will score against Liverpool, goals-related bets are worth considering too.

City have had 67% over 2.5 goals in those last 43 home games in which they have scored, but it is worth noting that both teams have scored in just 42% (a figure that rises only slightly with the quality of opposition).

Both outcomes seem more likely judging by Liverpool's figures. Of the nine away games in which Liverpool have conceded, seven (78%) have had over 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in eight (89%).

Clashes between the Premier League big six have continued to be high-scoring this season - 67% over 2.5 goals with both sides scoring in 84%. Last season both of those figures were 67%, which seems a good indication of where the true average might be at the moment.

Like Manchester City, Arsenal tend to hit higher scores once the opposition's barricades have been breached. Six of the eight home games in which they have scored this season have gone over 2.5 goals (both sides have scored in those same six games).

The odds seem in the backer's favour for Over 2.5 Goals in Arsenal v Liverpool at 1.738/11 and even on Both teams to Score at 1.68/13 .

Both outcomes are similarly priced for Manchester City v Liverpool at 1.748/11 for Over 2.5 Goals and 1.625/8 for Both teams to Score.

Recommended Bets

Back Arsenal to beat Liverpool @ 2.47/5
Back Arsenal v Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.738/11
Back Manchester City to beat Liverpool @ 1.910/11
Back Manchester City v Liverpool Over 2.5 goals @ 1.748/11

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FA Cup Stats: Value bets from the winner market and third round match-ups

"One of the many advantages of Betfair over traditional bookmakers is that you don't necessarily need to find the overall winner. You can get a good run for your money, and turn a profit, by backing one of the less obvious teams with a view to laying them at a later stage."

Andrew Atherley has crunched the FA Cup numbers to bring you a huge selection of tournament betting options...

One statistical trend stands out above all others when it comes to betting on the FA Cup: it is a competition dominated by the big six to almost the same extent as the Premier League.

Since the last big FA Cup final upset - when Wimbledon's Crazy Gang beat Liverpool in 1988 - only eight different clubs have lifted the famous trophy. All of the current big six have won at least once in that period, with Everton (1995) and Portsmouth (2008) the only clubs to have broken the stranglehold.

Add in the luck of the draw and punters are going to be fortunate indeed to find the overall winner unless they go for one of the big names. Perhaps the best choice at this stage might be Tottenham at 11.5n/a, as they are starting to gain momentum under Andre Villas-Boas and have a relatively easy start at home to Coventry.

But one of the many advantages of Betfair over traditional bookmakers is that you don't necessarily need to find the overall winner. You can get a good run for your money, and turn a profit, by backing one of the less obvious teams with a view to laying them at a later stage.

One of the best choices for that approach in recent years has been Stoke, who have reached at least the last eight in the past three seasons and were losing finalists in 2011. They are available to back at 44.043/1 this year and are likely to shorten if they can overcome a difficult start away to Crystal Palace.

It is notable that all eight of last season's quarter-finalists started their cup run against teams below them in the league standings (the seven Premier League teams that made it to that stage all drew lower-league opposition in the third round). Stoke fit that bill, but they may not be the most solid selection this time.

Another possible back-to-lay from the Premier League is Fulham at 38.037/1 as they start at home to Blackpool. Everton, Sunderland, Aston Villa and Wigan are others who have been given good chances to progress to the fourth round.

Another group of teams to consider is the top 12 in the Championship, who often feature a surprise performer in the FA Cup, granted a favourable draw. Last season Leicester were 12th in the Championship at the start of the third round and were the only team from outside the Premier League to reach the quarter-finals, losing to eventual winners Chelsea.

Leicester, drawn at home to Burton, have a decent chance of shortening again from their current 170.0169/1, as do Middlesbrough from 160.0159/1 on the assumption that they will have no difficulty disposing of Hastings at home.

Another way to profit from the solid form of the Championship top 12 is to back them in individual ties against teams below that level. Those may not be the most eye-catching games of the round, but the record of teams from the top half of the Championship is excellent in that sort of match-up.

The most attractively priced options this weekend are Millwall at 1.748/11 at home to Preston of League One, Leeds at 2.0811/10 at home to Birmingham from the bottom half of the Championship and Derby at 1.794/5 at home to League One leaders Tranmere.

Another trend worth following is that ties involving short-priced Premier League teams are often high-scoring, particularly when they are away to a lower-league team. Ties with the potential to go over 2.5 goals at decent odds include Brighton v Newcastle at 1.8810/11, Bolton v Sunderland at 1.9310/11 and Crystal Palace v Stoke at 2.1211/10.
Recommended Bets
Millwall to beat Preston @ 1.748/11
Leeds to beat Birmingham @ 2.0811/10
Derby to beat Tranmere @ 1.794/5
Brighton v Newcastle over 2.5 goals @ 1.8810/11
Bolton v Sunderland over 2.5 goals @ 1.9310/11
Crystal Palace v Stoke over 2.5 goals @ 2.1211/10

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Premier League Stats: Clean sheet crucial for Moyes' Everton

"Liverpool, then, score in 75% of derbies and, when they do, their win rate is 80%."

Andrew Atherley explains why a clean sheet is crucial if Everton want to win the Merseyside Derby, and why Liverpool don't lose when they score in this fixture...

Everton are the best team on Merseyside but to prove it in Sunday's derby game they might well have to break one of the most intriguing result patterns in English football.

It is a rare occurrence for Everton to have bragging rights, whether in the derby games or overall in terms of league position. Yet they finished above Liverpool in last season's Premier League table - for only the second time in the 10 full seasons since David Moyes took charge at Goodison Park - and they are even further ahead this season.

When it comes to the derby matches, however, Moyes's Everton have struggled to match their red rivals. In 20 Premier League derbies under Moyes, Everton have won just three and lost 12. That includes a pair of defeats last season, by an aggregate of 5-0, even when Liverpool were comparatively struggling.

But that's not the most interesting part of the results pattern. The remarkable thing is that the derby results divide neatly into two segments: matches in which Everton kept a clean sheet and those in which Liverpool scored. When Everton have kept a clean sheet in a league derby under Moyes, which is a fairly rare occurrence, their record is won three and drawn two out of five.

Whenever Everton have conceded, though, their win chance has gone west across the Irish Sea. Liverpool's record when scoring against Moyes's team is won 12, drawn three and lost none out of 15.

Liverpool, then, score in 75% of derbies and, when they do, their win rate is 80%.

Pretty compelling statistics that indicate a simple starting point when assessing Sunday's game: do you think Liverpool will score?

In recent seasons, it's been a fairly simple question to answer - hence Liverpool's strong derby record. This season, Liverpool's scoring record has been more hit and miss than usual - three blanks in their first eight Premier League games.

But it is worth noting that the only team to have conceded against Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool and beaten them in the Premier League is Manchester United, with a 2-1 win at Anfield (both United goals were scored after Liverpool were reduced to 10 men). The rest of Liverpool's record when scoring is won two, drawn two.

Everton, meanwhile, still rely on a clean sheet for their best results. They have won only two of the five Premier League games in which they have conceded this season and those were against bottom-four sides Aston Villa and Southampton.

Against the elite sides, Moyes clearly understands the importance of a clean sheet. Since the start of last season, Everton have won four out of 13 against the big six - all to nil - and have taken only one point from the nine games in which they have conceded.

That helps to explain why so many Everton v big six matches have under 2.5 goals (10 out of 13 since the start of last season, including all seven at Goodison Park). Under 2.5 Goals must appeal on Sunday at 1.9310/11.

As usual, then, there is more form available than a straight reading of the league table. What we have in Everton is a generally low-scoring side - especially against the better teams - that puts great faith in clean sheets, while on the other side are Liverpool with a decent scoring record even now and a good win rate when they do find the net.

Liverpool to win at 2.915/8 or off 0 on the Asian handicap at 1.991/1 have to be considered.

If Liverpool score, the stats say they will be hard to beat. The last time the Reds scored in a league derby and lost was way back in November 1995 - no wonder Moyes sets so much store in clean sheets.

Pick of the stats

Chelsea v Manchester United
Since Jose Mourinho left Chelsea, nine of the 12 domestic meetings between these sides have had over 2.5 goals.

Southampton v Tottenham
Seven of Southampton's eight games have had over 3.5 goals

Recommended Bets

Liverpool off 0 on Asian handicap v Everton at 1.991/1
Chelsea v Manchester United over 2.5 goals at 1.758/11

*****

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Opta Stats: Stingy Arsenal to deny Saints a look in

"Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in each of their opening three league games for the first time since 1924/25."
Recommended Bet: Back Arsenal to win to nil @ 1.84/5

Arsenal have started the season in miserly fashion and look set to make it another tough day for newly promoted Southampton...

Arsenal v Southampton (Saturday, 15:00)
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in each of their opening three league games for the first time since 1924/25
It's no coincidence that Steve Bould's appointment as Arsene Wenger's assistant has resulted in a far more rigid back line than was evident at the Emirates last season. This new found steeliness has seen the Gunners reduce opposition shots on target to just seven - the joint best in the Premier League this season. In stark contrast Southampton have allowed the most shots on the mark at 19.
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Norwich City v West Ham United (Saturday, 12:45)
West Ham have won none of their last 14 league trips to Carrow Road (W0 D6 L8).
West Ham have started their first season back in the Premier League assuredly, racking up six points from a possible nine but sandwiched between these victories was an away day reality check courtesy of a 3-0 demolition by Swansea. A visit to Norfolk is clearly not a trip the Irons have traditionally relished either and it will be difficult to beat Norwich who have only lost one of their last five.
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Fulham v West Bromwich Albion (Saturday, 15:00)
The Whites have lost just one of their last 11 Premier League games at Craven Cottage (W8 D2 L1)
Fulham's snug west London confines are a difficult place for Premier League teams to pick up their points. Martin Jol's side embarrassed Norwich 5-0 in their opening contest of the league season at the Cottage and will be relishing the chance to get back in front of their faithful after three games away. History denotes this fixture to be a heavily one-sided contest with Fulham winning eight from 13, without tasting defeat.
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Everton v Newcastle United (Monday, 20:00)
Newcastle have lost three of their last four Premier League away games, but haven't drawn any of their last 13 on the road
A shock defeat at West Brom aside Everton have peeled off their label as the Premier League's worst starters in 2012/13. Toffees fans have already been treated to a home win over Man United, their sixth in a row at Goodison in the league - allowing just the one goal to be scored in that sequence. Everton enjoy a Geordie visit too as last season's 3-1 hammering of Newcastle was their fifth win in seven games at home to the Magpies.
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Recommended Bets:
Back Arsenal to win to nil @ 1.84/5
Back Norwich and West Ham to draw @ 3.55/2
Back Fulham to win @ 2.111/10
Back Everton to win @ 1.845/6

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Opta Stats: Routine home wins for Man United and Chelsea

Opta / Richard / 05 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ashley Young's strike at Ewood Park was his fifth in the league this term

"Wigan have lost 14 of their last 15 Premier League trips to London, conceding 46 goals in that period."

Manchester United and Chelsea look set to cruise to comfortable wins, while Spurs and Wolves are gearing up for more away-day misery...

Manchester United v QPR
United have conceded just one goal in their last five Premier League home matches
QPR have failed to score in four of seven league trips to sides currently in the Premier League's top ten. As for Manchester United, they have already kept eight clean sheets in the league at home this season and each of the other five teams in the bottom six have all lost without scoring at Old Trafford.
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Chelsea v Wigan
Wigan have lost 14 of their last 15 Premier League trips to London, conceding 46 goals in that period (3.1 per game)
Roberto Martinez's side have kept just one clean sheet away from home all season, and have conceded three or more on no fewer than six occasions on their travels. Chelsea meanwhile have netted three or more in seven league clashes at Stamford Bridge this term. They put four past Aston Villa at Villa Park last weekend.
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Sunderland v Tottenham
Sunderland have won six and lost just one of their eight league games at the Stadium of Light under Martin O'Neill
Harry Redknapp's side have not won any of their last six league fixtures away from home, (W0 D3 L3), and have failed to score in all but one of their previous four on their travels. And Spurs' record at the Stadium of Light offers little hope of a turnaround, having come out on top in just one of their last six visits. Sunderland have taken four points from the last six available, including a highly creditable draw at the Etihad Stadium.
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Stoke v Wolves
Wolves have won just one of the last 14 Premier League away games (W1 D5 L8)
Terry Connor's side have now lost five successive league fixtures and have taken just a solitary point from the last 21 available. Stoke are not in much better shape, having not won any of their last four in the league, but they are unbeaten in three at the Britannia Stadium, two of which they have won without conceding.
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Recommended Bets:
Back Manchester United to win to nil v QPR @ [1.61]
Back Chelsea to score three or more goals v Wigan @ [2.31]
Back Sunderland to win v Tottenham @ [3.45]
Back Stoke to win v Wolves @ [1.66]

Manchester City can ill-afford another slip-up as they head to the Emirates......

The Opta stats indicate QPR aren't likely to enjoy their trip to Old Trafford......

The Opta stats suggest Wolves' away record spells yet more bad news for Terry Connor's beleaguered men......

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