Australian Open 2014: Second serve stats the key to profit

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Timeform Australian SmartPlays: Randwick, Saturday, April 27

The master Timeform rating of 127+ It's A Dundeel recorded last start suggests even main rivals such as Silent Achiever and Manighar on their latest form will struggle to prevent him from claiming a fourth straight Group 1 success...

The Sydney Autumn Carnival goes out with a bang on Saturday with four Group 1s on the programme, including the Sydney Cup and a star-studded All Aged Stakes...

11 runners will contest the Sydney Cup (3200m), including 2012 Melbourne Cup fourth Kelinni. Kelinni had been sound in Group 1 company earlier in the autumn and his class prevailed when dropping backed to listed level in the JRA Plate (2000m) seven days ago.

Despite carrying 60kg on a heavy track, Kelinni still managed to overpower his rivals late for a 1.3 length success. The run will have no doubt topped the UK import off ideally for his main target and profiles well heading into the event.

Aside from Maluckyday who is in the midst of a lengthy winning drought, Kelinni rates far superior to his remaining rivals and should be claiming another Group 1 for leading Sydney trainer Chris Waller.

Toydini contesting the Group 3 Frank Packer Plate (2000m) looks an easy way for punters to kick off their day in winning fashion. The promising Guy Walter-trained three-year-old is clearly the class runner in the opening race of the programme.

Toydini showed an impressive turn of foot when storming to a 3.8 length success in the Carbine Club Stakes (1600m). The Bernardini gelding rises to 2000m here and, while untried at the trip, we aren't expecting that to prove much of an issue considering how strong he was over the mile.

Toydini's dominant Carbine Club Stakes win last fortnight at Randwick took a backseat to the feats of Black Caviar on the same day and also the resounding ATC Australian Derby victory of It's A Dundeel.

It's A Dundeel treated his Derby rivals with disdain as the Murray Baker-trained galloper settled last and cruised by them down the straight for a six-length success under a hold. The High Chaparral colt now takes on the older horses for the first time in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m).

The master Timeform rating of 127+ It's A Dundeel recorded last start suggests even main rivals such as Silent Achiever and Manighar on their latest form will struggle to prevent him from claiming a fourth straight Group 1 success this autumn.

Timeform Australian SmartPlays:

Back Toydini @ 1.564/7 in the 03:25 at Randwick
Back It's A Dundeel @ 1.4640/85 in the 05:15 at Randwick
Back Kelinni @ 3.45n/a in the 06:35 at Randwick

Get FREE Timeform Star Ratings & Verdicts for racing in Australia and New Zealand at timeform.com/free/

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Australian Derby: Strike The Stars to take in Rosehill Guineas en route

News / Timeform / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Blake Shinn: Rides Strike The Stars

"Strike The Stars didn't get the breaks when only seventh behind old nemesis Mosheen in the Randwick Guineas last time."

Trainer Anthony Cummings has said that his three-year-old Strike The Stars will swerve the Doncaster Mile and instead head for the Rosehill Guineas on his way to the Australian Derby...

Cummings confirmed that the Doncaster was always seen a a fall-back for the Savabeel gelding and, with the Australian Guineas runner-up in fine form, the Rosehill Guineas is very much the plan, with the $1.5 million Australian Derby (currently trading at [13.0]) on April 14 the main target.

Rosehill's $2.25 million BMW on April 7, in which he will meet older horses at weight-for-age, is still a possibility and he trades at [18.0] for that race, also over 2400m.

Blake Shinn will take over aboard Strike The Stars when he goes in the middle leg of Sydney's autumn triple crown for three-year-olds on Saturday, last year's Group 3 Gloaming Stakes winner looking for his first victory at the highest level.

Strike The Stars didn't get the breaks when only seventh behind old nemesis Mosheen in the Randwick Guineas last time, the filly having beaten him by three lengths in in the Australian Guineas at Flemington earlier in the month.

Mosheen herself, who is trading as short-priiced favourite for the Australian Oaks and at [24.0] for the same day's Doncaster Handicap, will reportedly attempt to further her claims for either race in the $400,000 Vinery Stud Stakes on April 7.

In other news, Corey Brown will ride Paul Messara's Rekindled Alliance is the Guinease should the horse take his chance.

Last year's winner Sweet Lightning has been taken out of the Lincoln, in which 2010 victor Penitent will now carry top weight at Doncaster on Saturday......

Godolphin's Gamilati has undergone surgery to remove a chip from her near-fore ankle and may now be forced to miss the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6.......

Though the culmination of the all-weather season, it's difficult to see Winter Derby day at Lingfield as anything other than the beginning on the new Flat season given the quality of horses and the promising performances on show. David Johnson takes a look at them from the Timeform ratings perspective......

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Australian Grand Prix Betting: Impossible to look past McLaren

Formula One / James Frankland / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lewis Hamilton sets the fastest time in qualifying at Melbourne

"In the winners market, I’d look only at the two front men, Hamilton (2.08) and Button ([4.0])."

The first grand prix of the season takes place in Melbourne and McLaren have set down a marker for the campaign by taking the front two places on the grid. James Frankland can't see anyone other than Lewis or Jenson winning...

The first qualifying session of the season is, as Sebastian Vettel eloquently puts it, where 'everyone pulls down their trousers and we see what they have got'. That being the case, it is Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button who have the biggest reason to smile as the McLaren drivers head the field for tomorrow's Australian Grand Prix.

Going into this weekend there were many unanswered questions about the competitiveness of the field and this session answered most of them. It was McLaren, rather than Red Bull, who held back their true pace in testing and free practice. The elegant-looking Mercedes is fast, but there remains the possibility of a protest against their DRS-activated F-Duct rear wing, although race director Charlie Whiting has already declared it legal.

Ferrari had a woeful time with Fernando Alonso spinning out of second qualifying and lining up 12th, with Felipe Massa 16th. Overall the field is much closer, with just 0.9s separating the top 10 in qualifying and 2.5s covering the top 17 runners.

In the winners market, I'd look only at the two front men, Hamilton (2.08) and Button ([4.0]). Lewis looks be back to his happy, chirpy self and has every right to be pleased having qualified more than 0.7s ahead of the Red Bulls of Mark Webber and Vettel, who are fifth and sixth on the grid.

Another big surprise from qualifying is the presence of Romain Grosjean in third place, while his former World Champion teammate Kimi Raikkonen languishes down in 18th after being caught out following a slight off in first qualifying. Grosjean ([4.6]) and fourth-placed man Michael Schumacher ([3.65]) are good bets for a podium finish, with the early money favouring the Mercedes driver. Vettel ([2.74]) and Webber ([3.3]) are shorter to finish on the podium, reflecting the Red Bull's performance levels in previous years, but it's hard to tell whether their grid placings are representative of the form we'll see throughout the year.

Looking at potential points finishers, the [2.28] for Kimi Raikkonen is worth considering. The car is clearly fast as demonstrated by his teammate's third place in qualifying, and Raikkonen was known as a demon overtaker in his previous F1 career. He'll have lots of fresh rubber with which to make headway during the race too.

Also worth a look is Daniel Ricciardo at even money. The young Australian is racing at home for the first time but performed well to qualify tenth. Pastor Maldonado delivered an improved showing for Williams, qualifying eighth at a circuit that saw him post the 15th fastest time last year. The Venezuelan should also be looked at for points, with [4.5] for a top six finish an attractive pricing given Williams' reliability in pre-season testing, and the propensity for retirements in the early races.

Melbourne is a street circuit so the safety car is more likely to make an appearance at some stage during the race, with the pricing at [1.38] reflecting that. Go for the [3.2] for a non-appearance if you're feeling lucky, but given we had a red flag in second qualifying for Alonso's car being off the track at Turn 1, and the close proximity of unforgiving concrete walls around the circuit, I think it's likely we'll see Bernd Maylander in the Mercedes SLS at the head of the field at some stage tomorrow morning.

James Frankland continues his guide to making money on Formula One as he discusses technological innovation as well as the importance of weather and qualifying positions......

With the season set to get under way in Australia this Sunday, James Frankland explains how to make money betting on Formula One......

The new season is upon us and, while we can't be sure who will be in the best shape come Sunday afternoon in Australia, Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button are making encouraging noises about the McLaren car....

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Australian Cup: Cummings goes for win 14

Australia / Timeform / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Bart cummings has a phenomenal record in the Australian Cup

"Cummings won the first of his 13 Australian Cups with Arctic Coast in 1968 and the latest with Sirmione forty years later in 2008..."

Bart Cummings will rely on German import Illo and second string Precedence as he attempts to win his 14th Australian Cup at Flemington on Saturday...

The pair were put through their paces at Flemington earlier this week and, unsurprisingly, it was Illo, rated the superior of the duo by Timeform, who impressed work watchers most.

Cummings has booked Kerrin McEvoy to take the ride on Illo, who warmed up for Saturday's feature with a fourth place finish behind Black Caviar over an inadequate 1400m in the C. F. Orr Stakes before a second to Lucas Cranach in the Peter Young Stakes (1800m), both at Caulfield.

Michael Rodd will be on board Precedence, who trailed home in the former race when last seen.

Cummings won the first of his 13 Australian Cups with Arctic Coast in 1968 and the latest with Sirmione forty years later in 2008, but if he's going to win number 14 then Illo is going to have to be at his very best, with strong competition in the line-up on Saturday.

Last-start Sandown Classic winner Americain, winner of the Melbourne Cup in 2010 for Alain de Royer-Dupre and fourth in the 2011 renewal, makes his debut for David Hayes and currently trades as favourite, just shading another German import Lucas Cranach, who has done well in Australia since finishing fifth behind subsequent Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Danedream in his homeland.

Manighar, formerly trained by Luca Cumani and now with Peter Moody, also features towards the head of the market.

Click HERE to see the latest Australian Cup odds

Australian Hall of Fame trainer David Hayes will rely on former Melbourne Cup winner Americain in Saturday's $1 million Australian Cup having having decided not confirm his three other horses at the latest entry stage......

A capacity field will contest Saturday's renewal of the Group 1 Australian Guineas (due off 05:00 GMT) for three-year-olds over the metric mile at Flemington writes Timeform Australia's Gary Crispe....

The victory of Soul in a six-furlong handicap at Meydan on Thursday gave a timely boost to Darley-owned Anitpodean superstars Sepoy and Helmet, both of whom are set to take in targets at Meydan on Dubai World Cup night later this month......

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Australian Cup News: Leading fancy Americain now sole Hayes runner

News / Timeform / 05 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Americain is now trained in Australia

"Should Americain oblige on Saturday, he will be Hayes' third Australian Cup winner following Better Loosen Up (1991) and Niconero (2009)."

Australian Hall of Fame trainer David Hayes will rely on former Melbourne Cup winner Americain in Saturday's $1 million Australian Cup having having decided not confirm his three other horses at the latest entry stage...

Hayes' Budai, Extra Zero and Largo Lad have all been removed from the weight-for-age event over 2000m at Flemington on March 10, leaving ex-French stayer Americain, rated 129 by Timeform, to go it alone.

Formerly with Alain de Royer Dupre, Americain will be having his first start since joining the Linday Park trainer in December, a few weeks after his victory in the Zipping Classic at Sandown.

His new trainer has declared himself happy with how Americain's Australian Cup preparation has gone and expressed condifence that the horse can overcome his unorthodox approach to the race - the seven-year-old entire has been subject to strong practice gallops at a range of race meetings in recent weeks.

Americain won "the race that stops a nation" in 2010 and was fourth in it last year, a record that has contributed to him being the most decorated stayer 'Down Under'.

Should Americain oblige on Saturday, he will be Hayes' third Australian Cup winner following Better Loosen Up (1991) and Niconero (2009).

However, joining him at the head of the betting is another ex-European in Lucas Cranach ([3.6]), third in last year's Melbourne Cup on only his second start since joining Anthony Freedman.

David Hayes has also expressed his respect for Manighar, winner of the Catanach's T.S. Carlyon Cup and third in the Young Stakes since joining Black Caviar's trainer Peter Moody from Luca Cumani.

Manghar currently trades at [7.8], close in the betting to yet more former Euros Illo ([9.8]) and Glass Harmonium ([14.0]).

.............
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Experienced amateur rider JT McNamara will partner Teaforthree in the Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival next Wednesday....

Brian Ellison has his eyes on several handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival, but has his fingers crossed his intended runners make the cut....

Timeform give an overview of the weekend's racing, featuring a number of horses with the upcoming Festivals on their agenda......

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Australian Open Results: Djokovic edges out Murray in a thriller

Australian Open Betting / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 27 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Brothers in arms. Novak Djokovic embraces Andy Murray after a monumental effort by both players.

In what was surely the match of the tournament, Novak Djokovic came out on top against Andy Murray over five sets. Rafael Nadal awaits him in the final.

The wait continues for a British Grand Slam winner after Andy Murray was knocked out at the semi-final stage of the Australian Open earlier today by Novak Djokovic.

In what was arguably the match of the tournament, Murray and the world number one toiled for just short of five hours in a see-saw match that saw Djokovic go one set up, Murray winning the next two, the Serbian winning the fourth with ease and breaking the Scot at 6-5 to complete a memorable 6-3 3-6 6-7 (4-7) 6-1 7-5 win.

Murray will feel he wasted opportunities to knock out the pre-tournament favourite, who actually appeared the more tired of the two as the game wore on. But the man they call the 'Serbinator' didn't win three Slams last year by giving up when he was behind or not coming out on top on the big-pressure points. He traded at a high of [2.88] to win the match when 2-1 down in sets. A 3-2 win for the number one seed traded at [19.0] on Betfair.

For Murray, this match, albeit one that ended in defeat, will give him belief that he can beat the likes of Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in the remaining Slams of the year. He played a more aggressive brand of tennis that pushed his opponent all the way, a far cry from the ultra-defensive game where he's waited for the man on the other side of the net to make mistakes, tactics that he's been guilty of in the past.

For just short of five hours the Melbourne crowd enjoyed one of the great matches of recent years but they won't have enjoyed it as much as Rafael Nadal. The French Open champion qualified for the final yesterday after a four sets win over Roger Federer and in addition to having the extra day's rest anyway, will have watched with glee as Djokovic pushed his body to the limit and will surely go into Sunday's final as the more fatigued of the two.

Yet despite that, it is the Serb who will start as the [1.72] favourite with Nadal [2.34], almost exactly the same price he was pre-match to beat Federer.

The money is coming in for Novak Djokovic but Ben Caudell's stats suggest Andy Murray has a real chance at a really big price. A show-down with Rafael Nadal may be on the cards....

There's no patriotic sentimentality when Sean Calvert is predicting the outcome of a tennis match. Andy Murray should get a set against Novak Djokovic but he might as well start packing his bags home now......

We have to show faith in the player who has been there and done it at Grand Slam level before and that means siding with Kim Clijsters over Victoria Azarenka. In the men's draw, expect first blood Federer, says Sean...

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Australian Open Tips: Ferrer to test Djokovic's resolve

Australian Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

The marathon man. David Ferrer is one of the fittest players on the Tour.

"If Djokovic goes into this shell as he did against Lleyton Hewitt he could be in for a long evening against an opponent who you have to scrape off the court, as Murray found out last year."

World number one Novak Djokovic will face the biggest test of this tournament so far when he goes up against the tireless David Ferrer and this could be a long one. Elsewhere, Maria Sharapova should find it a lot easier against shock quarter-finalist Ekaterina Makarova.

There was more misfortune on Day Nine in Melbourne yesterday, as Agnieszka Radwanska capitulated after taking the first set against Victoria Azarenka.

The Pole managed to win just two games in the final two sets, which took down my handicap bet that was looking good early on.

The other annoying aspect is that my fancy of Kim Clijsters at odds against over the thankfully now deposed 'world number one' Caroline Wozniacki did come in in straight sets.

And what can you say about Roger Federer, who destroyed Juan Martin Del Potro to set up a rare semi final clash with Rafa Nadal?

Day 10 should bring some respite though with Andy Murray taking on Kei Nishikori in the early hours of the morning for a place in the semi finals.

Murray has benefited from a dream draw in Melbourne so far, with Gael Monfils losing and allowing Murray a match against a partially fit Mikhail Kukushkin before Nishikori took out Tsonga for him.

The injury-prone Nishikori comes in to this match having played three five setters in a row for the first time in his career and his record of breaking down should concern his backers today.

I said in my preview of his match against Julien Benneteau that this is a guy on his way to the top-20 and so it has proved with that win over Tsonga (so he can beat the best) but I don't like the match up with Murray.

Nishikori likes to play guys that come at him and he'll have the opposite with Murray, who with a lot of gas left in the tank should have few problems winning this one fairly comfortably. The [1.65] about 3-0 looks good in that one if you're having a bet.

Both of the women's quarter finals should prove to be wins for the heavy favourites - Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova against opponents who will be delighted to have just reached the last eight.

It would be a massive shock if Sara Errani's defensive pushing came out on top against Petra Kvitova, who would need to hit a ton of unforced errors, while Makarova will be hoping that Sharapova has one of her nightmare matches on serve.

The only bet I'd consider in the women's is the 2-0 to Sharapova, who won't find the awkward lefty Makarova coming at her with the same power as Sabine Lisicki did yesterday.

Makarova needs to be able to move Sharapova forward where she's more vulnerable and I very much doubt that Maria will allow her the time to do that, so the 2008 champ should win enough of the points from the back of the court.

Sharapova has won the pair's first two meetings, which were both on Maria's least favoured clay surface and the [1.8] about her taking out first time Slam quarter finalist Makarova in straight sets looks a decent price.

The last match of the day is Novak Djokovic v David Ferrer and I think
the bet in this one is the overs at a mark of 31.5 games and odds
of around [1.8].

Ferrer is perennially underrated by the layers and this match could be a tougher battle than the odds suggest.

I expect Djokovic to come out on top and the [4.3] about him winning 3-1 looks tempting, but I can't see Ferrer being taken out in a comfortable straight sets as the layers have it.

If Djokovic goes into this shell as he did against Lleyton Hewitt he could be in for a long evening against an opponent who you have to scrape off the court, as Murray found out last year.

The world number one's backhand down the line needs to be on fire to keep the points as short as possible from Nole's viewpoint and if he does that successfully he'll win, but the Spaniard should have more than enough to make this a match on his recent impressive form.

Recommended Bets

Back Sharapova to beat Makarova 2-0 at [1.8]
Back Over 31.5 games in Djokovic v Ferrer at [1.8]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

***

If you haven't bet on the Open - or any event in Australia and New Zealand - before, there are a few things you need to know. For example, you have to move funds into your 'Australian Wallet' before placing a bet. We've put together a handy guide to how it all works, including short video clips.

Two huge upsets could be on the cards according to the stats, says Ben Caudell. Novak Djokovic and Maria Sharapova backers beware......

The Contrarian is aware that this isn't the first time that he's stepped aboard the Andy Murray bandwagon. However, for several reasons that he is eager to explain, he's never before been so confident that the journey will end in...

Rafael Nadal is yet to drop a set while Kim Clijsters is determined that her quarter-final will not be her last match at Melbourne. Ben Caudell explains why the stats are on their side....

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Australian Open Stat Attack: Makarova can cause a Shockarova over Sharapova

Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Hair today, out of the Australian Open by tomorrow.

"As always, Sharapova has a pretty high rate of double faults so far at this event (16) and is stark contrast, Makarova has won far more second serve points than her opponent and moreover, holds superior stats on her second serve return winning (79)."

Two huge upsets could be on the cards according to the stats, says Ben Caudell. Novak Djokovic and Maria Sharapova backers beware...

Five Reasons to Back Ferrer +7.5 Games @ [2.24] and @ 8.80 to win match against Novak Djokovic (Small Bet)

David Ferrer is no mug, and the [8.80] inflated odds on the Spaniard pre-match looks to represent great value for the purpose of trading out at a shorter price. Even though Djokovic is close to near perfection as a tennis player, he is human after all, and therefore, as he did against Lleyton Hewitt, the Serbian can at times have the odd lapse in concentration. Not to mention a little nervous tension that can often go against him. Ferrer on other hand remains the same throughout; he is a dogged performer who grinds out result after result, a true gritty player and someone who will never give up. Therefore he is always worth backing irrespective of who he is playing and whenever he is priced as a massive underdog.

•Excluding any exhibition event, Ferrer has a decent record against Djokovic, having defeated the world number one on five occasions. Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 6-5; however Ferrer was triumphant in their most recent competitive match - 6-3 6-2 - at the World Tour Finals in London, November 2011.

•Ferrer, who is now an established top ten ranked player at number five in the world, already has a tournament title to his name in 2012, the Auckland Open hard-court event. With his confidence at an all-time high, having also compiled wins over four top ten ranked players within the last three months - Rafael Nadal, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray - David Ferrer will come into this match-up with real optimism and self belief knowing that this could be his best ever Grand Slam result.

•The Spanish number two has a great record at the Australian Open; He reached the semi-final stage in 2011 and has won 90% of his last ten matches, and 72% since January 2000. Ferrer also comes into this match-up having won eight matches in a row, four in a row in Australia, eight in a row on hard-courts, and six in a row in five set matches.

•Although Djokovic has lost only seven matches from his last fifty, it is important to note that six of these have come in the last five months with the majority during November and December 2011. During these months Djokovic has lost to Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, Kei Nishikori, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Janko Tipsarevic and David Ferrer.

•Interestingly, today's quarter-final match with Djokovic will be only the second time Ferrer has been priced at +6.0 and above in a Grand Slam event. The Spanish grinder's SP when he defeated fellow countryman Rafael Nadal at the quarter final stage 6-4 6-2 6-3 of the 2011 Australian Open was [7.50]. His opening odds against Robin Soderling at Wimbledon 2010 was 6.52. However, even though Ferrer managed to lose in an epic five set battle, his price would have dropped from that starting price quite considerably.

Four Reasons to Back Ekaterina Makarova @ [4.30] to defeat Maria Sharapova

•Fellow Russians Makarova and Sharapova face each other for the third time in their contrasting careers with Maria leading the head-to-head series 2-0; Makarova did however manage to take a set off Sharapova in May of last year on the clay courts of Madrid and will be buoyed by her sensational form at this year's Australian Open.

•Who'd have thought Ekaterina Makarova would be facing Maria Sharapova for a place in the semi-finals when the draw for the 2012 Aus Open was made over a week ago? Having dropped just the one set to Tamarine Tanasugarn in the first round, the 23 year-old has gone on to defeat three seeded players in a row and all three in straight sets......She dispatched of one of the pre-tournament favourites, Kaia Kanepi 6-2 7-5, seventh seed Vera Zvonareva 7-6 6-1, and the biggest upset of her career, Serena Williams 6-2 6-3. These four wins has meant that Makarova's earnings ROI (return on investment) is at an incredible 180% from her last ten matches. In total disparity, Sharapova has a ROI of -16.3% from her last ten.

•As always, Sharapova has a pretty high rate of double faults so far at this event (16) and is stark contrast, Makarova has won far more second serve points than her opponent and moreover, holds superior stats on her second serve return winning (79). Only Kim Clijsters and Victoria Azarenka are ahead in the leaders' table for this stat. If the weather forecasts wind, make sure you double your stake on Makarova because Sharapova struggles with her high ball toss and massive back swing on her ground strokes. She hates blustery weather..

•Make sure you back Makarova pre-match as a good start may see her price drop heavily, especially if conditions are tough.

If you haven't bet on the Open - or any event in Australia and New Zealand - before, there are a few things you need to know. For example, you have to move funds into your 'Australian Wallet' before placing a bet. We've put together a handy guide to how it all works, including short video clips.

World number one Novak Djokovic will face the biggest test of this tournament so far when he goes up against the tireless David Ferrer and this could be a long one. Elsewhere, Maria Sharapova should find it a lot easier...

The Contrarian is aware that this isn't the first time that he's stepped aboard the Andy Murray bandwagon. However, for several reasons that he is eager to explain, he's never before been so confident that the journey will end in...

Rafael Nadal is yet to drop a set while Kim Clijsters is determined that her quarter-final will not be her last match at Melbourne. Ben Caudell explains why the stats are on their side....

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Australian Open Tips: Ferrer the tireless and Murray to progress

Australian Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

One of the toughest guys on the Tour to beat - David Ferrer

"Rarely can there have been a wider gap between the attitude, determination and strength of character of two opposing players and I’d back Ferrer all day long against the mercurial underachiever Gasquet."

One of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour, David Ferrer, is up against one of the most enigmatic in Richard Gasquet and a strong preference goes for the Spaniard. Sean Calvert talks us through this and the other best bets of the day.

Day seven at the Australian Open proved to be the first disappointing one of the tournament for this column as both of my bets were beaten.

The first was very unfortunate, as Li Na wasted four match points against a hobbled Kim Clijsters before Bernard Tomic blinked against Roger Federer, who was in no mood to concede a set to the young upstart.

On to the business end of the tournament then and this is where it should prove profitable to back against those for whom reaching the second week is the limit of their expectations.

The first of these is Lleyton Hewitt, who has ridden his luck as far as it is likely to go and who will be taken care of with ease by defending champion, Novak Djokovic.

Hewitt should have been beaten by Cedrik Marcel Stebe (who choked), Andy Roddick (injured) and Milos Raonic (bad day the office) and for the first leg of a Betfair Multiple today I'll take Djokovic to win 3-0 at around [1.38].

I don't see any way (injury notwithstanding) how Hewitt can possibly nick a set off Djokovic in the form the world number one's in at the moment and that should set us up for the second and final leg, which is David Ferrer to beat Richard Gasquet at [1.5].

Rarely can there have been a wider gap between the attitude, determination and strength of character of two opposing players and I'd back Ferrer all day long against the mercurial underachiever Gasquet.

The Frenchman has reached the fourth round here twice in the past and lost in four sets both times and under what is set to be a very hot sun today, I can see the 'Gasman' melting away as he's forced into long, punishing rallies by the indefatigable Spaniard.

Ferrer has won five of their six previous matches, all of which have been straight sets wins for the victor and that could be the same again today.

Finally on the men's side tonight, Andy Murray takes on Mikhail Kukushkin in a match-up that the Scot shouldn't take too lightly.

Kukushkin has shown signs of improvement of late and although the [1.03] shot should take this, I would never back Murray against anyone half decent at that price.

The pair met less than a fortnight ago in Brisbane and the Kazakhstan player was good enough to take a set from the Scot then, but on the evidence of what was almost a choke for the ages against Gael Monfils in the last round, his temperament is not the best.

He's got nothing to lose though and might be good enough to win on the handicap with a [9.5] game start at around [2.0].

Continuing the theme of backing against the players who have done well just to make the second week, I'll take Zheng Jie to use her experience to end Sara Errani's unlikely run to the fourth round at a price of [1.44].

The diminutive Chinese player has reached the semi finals and the fourth round here on her last two visits and she also has a semi final appearance at Wimbledon to her name, which will give her an edge over her Italian opponent.

This is Errani's first time in the fourth round of a Slam and she's surely at the very limit of where her talent will take her, but she does have a 1-0 lead in the head-to-head match up.

This will be an awkward match for Zheng, as she prefers to counterpunch against pace from her opponents, which she won't get today, but I think the clever Zheng will figure out a way to get things done.

As far as outsiders go tonight, Ana Ivanovic has a shot at [4.1] against Petra Kvitova, as does Sabine Lisicki against Maria Sharapova at the same price, but you couldn't back either with any real confidence.

Recommended Bets

Back Ferrer [1.5] and Djokovic 3-0 [1.38] in a Betfair Multiple
Back Zheng to beat Errani at [1.44]

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Petra Kvitova, a pretender to the number one ranking, is up aginst a former world number one in Ana Ivanovic. The beautiful Serb may not be able to knock out the Wimbledon champ but she should be able to take...

It's been a while since Jelena Jankovic has been at her best but a tie against current world number one Caroline Wozniacki should present a great chance to remind the world that she's a former world number one herself, says...

Kim Clijsters is the defending champ in Melbourne but she may be out of the running to defend that title sooner rather than later when she faces the same player she defeated in last year's final. Na Li looks in...

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Australian Open Stat Attack: Ivanovic can test Kvitova

Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Aan Ivanovic looks a far better player after enduring a punishing fitness regime

"Although Kvitova has won twenty one of her last twenty two matches, she is prone to the occasional lapse in concentration and has conceded sets in seven of her last fourteen matches."

Petra Kvitova, a pretender to the number one ranking, is up aginst a former world number one in Ana Ivanovic. The beautiful Serb may not be able to knock out the Wimbledon champ but she should be able to take a set, say the stats of Ben Caudell.

4 Reasons to Lay Petra Kvitova 2-0 @ [1.81] against Ana Ivanovic

•Former world number one Ana Ivanovic has undertaken a strict fitness regime in recent months that has seen her rise in the world rankings. It has improved her serve and consistency from the back of the court and that may in part be due to her new coach and fitness coach. This new found confidence has been in abundance this past week in Melbourne as the tennis pin-up is yet to drop a set in her opening three matches.

• Ana, the 2008 French Open Champion has won 80% of her last ten matches at Grand Slam leve,l compiles credible stats against left-handers recording 71% of wins from her last fifty. The Serbian has also won four of her last six when opponent is a big server.

•Although Kvitova was ranked outside of the top 30 in 2008 and 2009, the years in which Ivanovic defeated the Belarusian, a 3-0 head-to-head series lead still provides a massive psychological advantage coming into today's match in favour of Ivanovic. With all three wins being played on hard (Brisbane 2009 - 6-4 6-2, Zurich 2008 - 6-1 6-4, Montreal 6-3 4-6 6-3) there is definitely value in laying Kvitova 2-0 @ [1.81] in the set betting market.

•Although Kvitova has won twenty one of her last twenty two matches, she is prone to the occasional lapse in concentration and has conceded sets in seven of her last fourteen matches. This includes a three set second round win at this year's Australian Open against Carla Suarez Navarro.

4 Reasons to back Kei Nishikori to defeat Jo Wilfried Tsonga @ [5.0] (Small Bet)

Kei Nishikori is one of my favourite players at the moment so my heart may be slightly ruling my head over today's match-up. But there are a few sound reasons why the Japanese superstar could upset all the odds to make it through to the quarter finals of a Grand Slam event for the first time in his fledging career.

•Firstly, the 22 year-old has defeated the Frenchman twice in the last three months and therefore leads the head-to-head series 2-0. Although their most recent match-up in the Kooyong exhibition event can possibly be discounted due to Tsonga suffering from jetlag and fatigue (which Kei won 1-6 6-4 6-1), the Japanese did triumph over a fully fit Tsonga in Shanghai in October of last year - 6-7 6-4 6-4.

•Nishikori seems to hold no fear when competing against the top players, having also defeated Novak Djokovic in Basel, Dolgopolov and Tsonga in Shanghai, and Nicolas Almagro in Kuala Lumpar. He holds a 50% match win record against top ten players since January 2011.

•Ranked 26 in the world and on the rise, Nishikori comes into this match having won five in a row in five set matches, five in a row on hard-courts and in Australia. Moreover, he has a great record against big servers, winning ten of his last eleven.

•With superior tournament stats on 1st serve %, 2nd serve points won, and total break points won, I'll be hoping that with the millions of Japanese fans tuning into watch their sporting hero, Kei puts in an a dogged performance and doesn't collapse under the weight of expectation.

One of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour, David Ferrer, is up against one of the most enigmatic in Richard Gasquet and a strong preference goes for the Spaniard. Sean Calvert talks us through this and the other...

It's been a while since Jelena Jankovic has been at her best but a tie against current world number one Caroline Wozniacki should present a great chance to remind the world that she's a former world number one herself, says...

Kim Clijsters is the defending champ in Melbourne but she may be out of the running to defend that title sooner rather than later when she faces the same player she defeated in last year's final. Na Li looks in...

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Australian Open Stat Attack: Jankovic to knock out the world number one

Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jankovic can still raise her game when she needs to

"Jankovic holds an all-important 4-3 head-to-head series lead over world number one Wozniacki with three of those match wins being played on the hard-court surface (Indian Wells 2010, Doha 2009, US Open 2008)."

It's been a while since Jelena Jankovic has been at her best but a tie against current world number one Caroline Wozniacki should present a great chance to remind the world that she's a former world number one herself, says Ben Caudell.

5 Reasons to Lay Roger Federer 3-0 @ [1.86] against Bernard Tomic

•There's no doubting the credentials of Bernard Tomic as a future top tenner, especially with the amazing start he has had to the 2012 season, winning nine of his ten opening matches and reaching the fourth round of a Grand Slam for the second time in the space of twelve months.

•The Australian number one has had the benefit of having played Roger Federer in a Davis Cup match -September last year - in which the youngster managed to take a set off the Fed Express and on the multi-Grand Slam winner's favourite grass court surface (6-2 7-5 3-6 6-3)

•From Tomic's seven matches against top ten players and on hard-courts, the Australian has won four and lost three, however he has won at least one set from five of those matches. In fact Tomic has played top ten players on all surfaces only eleven times and from those eleven, he has won at least one set on nine occasions.

•Home favourite Bernard will have the advantage of the Australian supporters cheering on every point against Federer in this eagerly-awaited match. So far this support has given him that extra 10% of fortune to get through his first three matches; he came from two sets down against Fernando Verdasco in round one, defeated Sam Querrey in four and dispatched of Dolgopolov in another tense five set thriller.

•Tomic will have a predicted record number of TV viewers tuning in to watch him play the number three seed and tennis idol of the 19 year-old. With such good stats coming into this match, who can deny him taking at least one set? Tomic has won six matches in a row overall, four of his last five in five sets matches, six in a row in Australia, and six in a row on hard-courts.

4 Reasons to back Jelena Jankovic @[3.0] to defeat Caroline Wozniacki

•Jankovic holds an all-important 4-3 head-to-head series lead over world number one Wozniacki with three of those match wins being played on the hard-court surface (Indian Wells 2010, Doha 2009, US Open 2008)

•The former world number one, who is currently ranked fourteen in the world, steam-rolled through to the fourth round conceding only ten games in total. She has won five of her last six at Grand Slam level, four of her last five on hard-courts and four of her last five in Australia.

•The Serbian comes into today's match holding a superior match rating (Match Ratings assess form specific to the current tournament conditions and the opposing player taking into account the head-to-head series) surface rating, and predicted chance of winning (67%) Therefore there is definite value in backing the consistent baseliner at [3.0] in the match odds.

•Jankovic also benefits from her Australian Open tournament stats, having higher break points won count, second serve return points won, and first serve points won.

Kim Clijsters is the defending champ in Melbourne but she may be out of the running to defend that title sooner rather than later when she faces the same player she defeated in last year's final. Na Li looks in...

Andy Murray can overcome Michel Llodra in Melbourne, says Sean Calvert, but your is better off elsewhere. Our man explains why he's backing Kei Nishikori and Sabine Lisicki....

Ben Caudell continues his value hunting in Melbourne with an in-form outsider to back in both men's and women's tournaments...

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Australian Open Tips: Na Li to upset the defending champ

Australian Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Na Li looks in fantastic shape physically and is in good form

"Clijsters had to be at her best to take Na Li out last time here and
the form that the Chinese player has shown in the last few weeks is
more than good enough to beat a less than 100% Clijsters in my view,
so the current odds look worth taking."

Kim Clijsters is the defending champ in Melbourne but she may be out of the running to defend that title sooner rather than later when she faces the same player she defeated in last year's final. Na Li looks in good enough form to beat her, says Sean Calvert.

It was another perfect day for followers of my tips on Day 6 of the 2012 Australian Open with both Kei Nishikori and Sabine Lisicki both obliging to make it 11 out of 12 so far this week.

With our accounts looking healthy it's time to take a chance on an odds-against shot on Day 7 at Melbourne Park and last year's finalist Na Li is my first bet tonight.

The Chinese star is a very backable [2.44] to take revenge for her loss in last year's final to Kim Clijsters, who by my reckoning isn't at her best so far in this tournament in terms of fitness.

The Belgian has been functional against some average opponents and this is probably because she's not had much tennis in the last six months.

Clijsters had to be at her best to take Na Li out last time here and the form that the Chinese player has shown in the last few weeks is more than good enough to beat a less than 100% Clijsters in my view, so the current odds look worth taking.

Another bet worth consideration is Jelena Jankovic's price in her match against world number one in name only, Caroline Wozniacki.

Jankovic has shown much improved form lately and there are still concerns over Wozniacki's injured wrist.

This clash of two defensive pushers could go long and I like the [2.9]
about Jankovic in that one.

On the men's side today, it's worth sticking with the kid that's made us few quid this week, local hero Bernard Tomic.

The awkward 19-year-old probably won't have enough left in the tank after a few long matches to defeat Federer, but I think he'll be good enough to take a set off the Swiss maestro, so the bet is a lay of 3-0 Federer at around [1.78].

The pair have met just the once so far and that was on grass in the Davis
Cup a few months ago. Tomic took a set that day and his deceptively effective style of play should have enough about it to trouble the world number three.

It's a big ask for Tomic to pull off a shock, but it will be fascinating to see how much the Aussie has improved lately when the pair clash at 8am UK time on Sunday.

Recommended Bets

Back Na Li to beat Clijsters at [2.44]
Lay Federer 3-0 v Tomic at [1.78]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

It's been a while since Jelena Jankovic has been at her best but a tie against current world number one Caroline Wozniacki should present a great chance to remind the world that she's a former world number one herself, says...

Andy Murray can overcome Michel Llodra in Melbourne, says Sean Calvert, but your is better off elsewhere. Our man explains why he's backing Kei Nishikori and Sabine Lisicki....

Ben Caudell continues his value hunting in Melbourne with an in-form outsider to back in both men's and women's tournaments...

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Australian GP Betting: Advantage Vettel

Formula One / James Frankland / 26 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

You were that fast without KERS?

"Given his speed, Vettel’s odds are understandably on the stingy side at [2.06]. Speed talks in F1 but Red Bull have a history of unreliability – last year Vettel lost a win in Bahrain due to a cracked exhaust and then dropped maximum points here in Australia with a brake failure."

James Frankland on what we know so far about the different cars ahead of the first race of the season.

Sitting in the centre of the press conference after securing pole position in Australia, Sebastian Vettel looked calm and relaxed. As well he might, because he knows that in the Red Bull RB7 he has an extremely fast car with which to begin the defence of his 2010 crown.

The measure of his advantage was about to be brought into sharp focus, when the opening question in the press conference revealed he had not used his KERS power boost (worth about 0.3s per lap) to set the time. That revelation caught Lewis Hamilton, sitting to Vettel's right by virtue of his second place, by surprise and his eyebrows arched upwards in shock. It later transpired Hamilton was unable to use his KERS either, due to a system failure in the final part of qualifying. But the existence of a 0.8s per lap difference between Red Bull and McLaren suggests that it is again the blue cars that will hold sway on track in 2011.

However, and as is ever the case in Formula One, there are factors that blur the picture somewhat. The new Pirelli tyres are a relative unknown - the teams have tested extensively on them during the winter and found that they will need to be used in a very different manner to the more durable Bridgestone rubber from previous seasons. With an emphasis on the driver to manage tyre wear throughout the race, drivers like Mark Webber (third on the grid) and Jenson Button (fourth) could come into play if their strategists are on the ball.

Last year's title contender Fernando Alonso could only line up fifth in the Ferrari, a full 1.7s off the pace of the Red Bull. Fernando's race pace will undoubtedly be closer to that of the leaders but it was an inauspicious start for the Maranello team who have been very public in their desire to win this year's championship.

Given his speed, Vettel's odds are understandably on the stingy side at [2.06]. Speed talks in F1 but Red Bull have a history of unreliability - last year Vettel lost a win in Bahrain due to a cracked exhaust and then dropped maximum points here in Australia with a brake failure. On that basis, Hamilton is worth a punt at [7.0] but his ability to keep the fragile Pirellis in shape could limit his ability to mix it with Vettel and Webber ([6.8]) over a race distance if the RB7s hold together. Conversely, Button's ([10.5]) smooth driving style may give him an advantage, even if outright pace is lacking.

It will take a few races before the 'right' tyre strategy becomes clear and until that happens, there are likely to be some unexpected results.

Recommended Bet:

Back Lewis Hamilton to win the Australian GP at [7.0]

You'll be able to read articles about every Grand Prix of 2011 on Betting.Betfair as well as a comprehensive, up-to-the-minute race preview when qualifying has finished. For now, here's a quick update on the latest Championship odds....

Rule changes, less durable tyres and Lewis Hamilton's battle with his ailing McLaren mean that the Formula 1 2011 season will involve all the drama and more of last year, says Ralph Ellis. That's why Sebastien Vettel is too short...

Two years of British dominance in Formula One was ended by Sebastian Vettel in 2010 but nobody stays on top of the sport for very long anymore, and the Betfair Contrarian believes that 2008 champ Lewis Hamilton will benefit from...

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Australian Open Tips: Favourite Djokovic to break British hearts

Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Djokovic and Murray are well matched - but the Serbian may have the edge

"The head-to-head record stands at 4-3 in Djokovic's favour, with six of the seven matches being played on hard-courts. But, interestingly enough, Murray has triumphed in their last three matches - all at Master Series level, and all in straight sets."

The stats suggest a close fought Australian Open Final on Sunday morning but a tough semi-final may have just taken the edge off of Murray, says Ben Caudell

Andy Murray (GBR) v Novak Djokovic (SRB)
The paths of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic converge once more having both successfully won through their semi-final matches to set-up an epic title showdown in Melbourne.

Both men will be familiar with one another's games having competed at junior level from the age of 12, and on to the professional circuit where they have battled it out on seven occasions.

The head-to-head record stands at 4-3 in Djokovic's favour, with six of the seven matches being played on hard-courts. But, interestingly enough, Murray has triumphed in their last three matches - all at Master Series level, and all in straight sets. Sunday morning's final is the pair's first best of five-set match played between the two 23-year-olds and the third final in a row.

Murray is clearly the best tactician on tour and if he can find the balance between his notorious defensive play and his attacking game that has so far proved to be extremely effective against his opponents in the previous rounds he will cause Djokovic difficulties.

The Brit star managed to change tactics with extreme precision when a set down against his dogged semi-final opponent, David Ferrer. Murray started to hit with considerably more depth and power, picking away at Ferrer's defensive wall, applying enough pressure for Ferrer to increase his unforced error count, eventually winning in four tough sets. If he is to succeed tomorrow he will have to apply similar methods.

Although the Serbian will be slightly worried by the fact that he has lost to Murray three times in a row, he will be more than delighted with his near perfect performance against the reigning champion Roger Federer in his semi-final match. It is very difficult to find fault with Djokovic's game at the moment and he is still on a massive high after winning the Davis Cup at the end of 2010 with Serbia.

Djokovic has won 11 matches in a row, his last nine in Australia, and has been victorious in his last nine five-set matches. He also holds better stats on hard courts than Murray. Djokovic will have the advantage of having won a Grand Slam title here back in 2008 and is the deserved favourite in the match odds @ [1.74] to succeed.

Moreover, the Serbian has had an extra day of rest, while Murray looked exhausted and maybe slightly injured after his semi-final. I have to side with Djokovic to win here for the second time in his career, unfortunately for Murray and Britain, the wait continues.

Recommended Bets:
Back Novak Djokovic @ [1.74] to win match
Back Djokovic 3-1 @ [4.8]

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