McLaren and Red Bull make their mark at Spa as F1 show gets back on the road

"Hamilton can be expected to bounce back in Monza next weekend, and with Red Bull traditionally struggling in Italy – Vettel’s 2011 win notwithstanding – getting behind McLaren at 4.3100/30 might be wise at this stage."

Tipped for a pole to chequered flag win by BB F1 blogger James Frankland, McLaren's Jenson Button did the business at Spa to give his team a boost in their Constructors' Championship bid

McLaren driver Jenson Button dominated the Belgian Grand Prix to win from pole position, staying out of trouble in a large first-corner melee that eliminated several runners and caused the safety car to be deployed for four laps while hundreds of carbon fibre shards were cleared from the track.

Fernando Alonso was amongst those whose races ended at La Source, caught up in an accident triggered by Romain Grosjean squeezing McLaren's Lewis Hamilton on the run to the first corner. The two cars touched, Hamilton slewed into the back of the Lotus and pushed Grosjean into the first corner, cartwheeling over Alonso's Ferrari with Sergio Perez caught up as well.

Button used the pace of his McLaren to good effect, building an advantage over the rest of the field as soon as the safety car departed. Kimi Raikkonen, expected to shine on this circuit, suffered from a lack of grip and gradually went backwards in the early stint before recovering to finish third. Sebastian Vettel was the big mover, going from tenth at the start to finish second on the road, 13.6 seconds behind the McLaren driver but unable to make inroads into Button's lead.

Alonso's DNF meant there was an opportunity to make inroads into his championship lead and the 18 points scored by Vettel move him into second place in the Driver's Championship behind Alonso, the gap reduced from 40 points to 24. Should Alonso fail to finish again, and Vettel capitalise with a victory, the Red Bull driver will go into the lead of the championship and so backing him at 3.7511/4 might be a shrewd move. Alonso himself admits the Ferrari is the slowest of the four leading cars so perhaps his time at the top is coming to an end.

Hamilton's DNF has widened his odds from 7.613/2 at the start to 8.27/1 now - somewhat surprising given that he still has the same points gap to Alonso, 47, that he had going into this weekend, but he has lost an opportunity to reduce the gap by failing to finish in Belgium. Alonso himself has widened slightly from 2.0811/10 to 2.447/5 and is still the favourite, but with eight races to go he cannot afford to draw any more blanks.

Red Bull have extended their title lead by eight points over nearest challengers McLaren, who have moved away from Lotus thanks to Button's win, with Lotus only managing third with Raikkonen.

Previously I've suggested that McLaren need both cars scoring points in order to have any chance of overhauling Red Bull, and while only Button scored today it is the #3 McLaren which has needed to step up recently. Hamilton can be expected to bounce back in Monza next weekend, and with Red Bull traditionally struggling in Italy - Vettel's 2011 win notwithstanding - getting behind McLaren at 4.3100/30 might be wise at this stage.

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Australian Grand Prix Betting: Impossible to look past McLaren

Formula One / James Frankland / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lewis Hamilton sets the fastest time in qualifying at Melbourne

"In the winners market, I’d look only at the two front men, Hamilton (2.08) and Button ([4.0])."

The first grand prix of the season takes place in Melbourne and McLaren have set down a marker for the campaign by taking the front two places on the grid. James Frankland can't see anyone other than Lewis or Jenson winning...

The first qualifying session of the season is, as Sebastian Vettel eloquently puts it, where 'everyone pulls down their trousers and we see what they have got'. That being the case, it is Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button who have the biggest reason to smile as the McLaren drivers head the field for tomorrow's Australian Grand Prix.

Going into this weekend there were many unanswered questions about the competitiveness of the field and this session answered most of them. It was McLaren, rather than Red Bull, who held back their true pace in testing and free practice. The elegant-looking Mercedes is fast, but there remains the possibility of a protest against their DRS-activated F-Duct rear wing, although race director Charlie Whiting has already declared it legal.

Ferrari had a woeful time with Fernando Alonso spinning out of second qualifying and lining up 12th, with Felipe Massa 16th. Overall the field is much closer, with just 0.9s separating the top 10 in qualifying and 2.5s covering the top 17 runners.

In the winners market, I'd look only at the two front men, Hamilton (2.08) and Button ([4.0]). Lewis looks be back to his happy, chirpy self and has every right to be pleased having qualified more than 0.7s ahead of the Red Bulls of Mark Webber and Vettel, who are fifth and sixth on the grid.

Another big surprise from qualifying is the presence of Romain Grosjean in third place, while his former World Champion teammate Kimi Raikkonen languishes down in 18th after being caught out following a slight off in first qualifying. Grosjean ([4.6]) and fourth-placed man Michael Schumacher ([3.65]) are good bets for a podium finish, with the early money favouring the Mercedes driver. Vettel ([2.74]) and Webber ([3.3]) are shorter to finish on the podium, reflecting the Red Bull's performance levels in previous years, but it's hard to tell whether their grid placings are representative of the form we'll see throughout the year.

Looking at potential points finishers, the [2.28] for Kimi Raikkonen is worth considering. The car is clearly fast as demonstrated by his teammate's third place in qualifying, and Raikkonen was known as a demon overtaker in his previous F1 career. He'll have lots of fresh rubber with which to make headway during the race too.

Also worth a look is Daniel Ricciardo at even money. The young Australian is racing at home for the first time but performed well to qualify tenth. Pastor Maldonado delivered an improved showing for Williams, qualifying eighth at a circuit that saw him post the 15th fastest time last year. The Venezuelan should also be looked at for points, with [4.5] for a top six finish an attractive pricing given Williams' reliability in pre-season testing, and the propensity for retirements in the early races.

Melbourne is a street circuit so the safety car is more likely to make an appearance at some stage during the race, with the pricing at [1.38] reflecting that. Go for the [3.2] for a non-appearance if you're feeling lucky, but given we had a red flag in second qualifying for Alonso's car being off the track at Turn 1, and the close proximity of unforgiving concrete walls around the circuit, I think it's likely we'll see Bernd Maylander in the Mercedes SLS at the head of the field at some stage tomorrow morning.

James Frankland continues his guide to making money on Formula One as he discusses technological innovation as well as the importance of weather and qualifying positions......

With the season set to get under way in Australia this Sunday, James Frankland explains how to make money betting on Formula One......

The new season is upon us and, while we can't be sure who will be in the best shape come Sunday afternoon in Australia, Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button are making encouraging noises about the McLaren car....

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