Australian Grand Prix Betting: Impossible to look past McLaren

Formula One / James Frankland / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lewis Hamilton sets the fastest time in qualifying at Melbourne

"In the winners market, I’d look only at the two front men, Hamilton (2.08) and Button ([4.0])."

The first grand prix of the season takes place in Melbourne and McLaren have set down a marker for the campaign by taking the front two places on the grid. James Frankland can't see anyone other than Lewis or Jenson winning...

The first qualifying session of the season is, as Sebastian Vettel eloquently puts it, where 'everyone pulls down their trousers and we see what they have got'. That being the case, it is Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button who have the biggest reason to smile as the McLaren drivers head the field for tomorrow's Australian Grand Prix.

Going into this weekend there were many unanswered questions about the competitiveness of the field and this session answered most of them. It was McLaren, rather than Red Bull, who held back their true pace in testing and free practice. The elegant-looking Mercedes is fast, but there remains the possibility of a protest against their DRS-activated F-Duct rear wing, although race director Charlie Whiting has already declared it legal.

Ferrari had a woeful time with Fernando Alonso spinning out of second qualifying and lining up 12th, with Felipe Massa 16th. Overall the field is much closer, with just 0.9s separating the top 10 in qualifying and 2.5s covering the top 17 runners.

In the winners market, I'd look only at the two front men, Hamilton (2.08) and Button ([4.0]). Lewis looks be back to his happy, chirpy self and has every right to be pleased having qualified more than 0.7s ahead of the Red Bulls of Mark Webber and Vettel, who are fifth and sixth on the grid.

Another big surprise from qualifying is the presence of Romain Grosjean in third place, while his former World Champion teammate Kimi Raikkonen languishes down in 18th after being caught out following a slight off in first qualifying. Grosjean ([4.6]) and fourth-placed man Michael Schumacher ([3.65]) are good bets for a podium finish, with the early money favouring the Mercedes driver. Vettel ([2.74]) and Webber ([3.3]) are shorter to finish on the podium, reflecting the Red Bull's performance levels in previous years, but it's hard to tell whether their grid placings are representative of the form we'll see throughout the year.

Looking at potential points finishers, the [2.28] for Kimi Raikkonen is worth considering. The car is clearly fast as demonstrated by his teammate's third place in qualifying, and Raikkonen was known as a demon overtaker in his previous F1 career. He'll have lots of fresh rubber with which to make headway during the race too.

Also worth a look is Daniel Ricciardo at even money. The young Australian is racing at home for the first time but performed well to qualify tenth. Pastor Maldonado delivered an improved showing for Williams, qualifying eighth at a circuit that saw him post the 15th fastest time last year. The Venezuelan should also be looked at for points, with [4.5] for a top six finish an attractive pricing given Williams' reliability in pre-season testing, and the propensity for retirements in the early races.

Melbourne is a street circuit so the safety car is more likely to make an appearance at some stage during the race, with the pricing at [1.38] reflecting that. Go for the [3.2] for a non-appearance if you're feeling lucky, but given we had a red flag in second qualifying for Alonso's car being off the track at Turn 1, and the close proximity of unforgiving concrete walls around the circuit, I think it's likely we'll see Bernd Maylander in the Mercedes SLS at the head of the field at some stage tomorrow morning.

James Frankland continues his guide to making money on Formula One as he discusses technological innovation as well as the importance of weather and qualifying positions......

With the season set to get under way in Australia this Sunday, James Frankland explains how to make money betting on Formula One......

The new season is upon us and, while we can't be sure who will be in the best shape come Sunday afternoon in Australia, Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button are making encouraging noises about the McLaren car....

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Lee Dixon: Impossible to make a case for Bolton

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Nicolas Anelka has a fine goalscoring record against Bolton

"Third plays bottom and worst still for the home fans, Opta tell us that Bolton have lost the last eight Premier League games in a row at the Reebok versus Chelsea, the longest losing run of any team at home to a single opponent."

Third visits last in Sunday's first match of the day and all the stats in the world point towards a comfortable Chelsea win. We simply can't ignore them, says Lee Dixon.

Bolton v Chelsea, KO 13:30 BST, Sky Sports 1

Bolton [7.0] Chelsea [1.57] The Draw [4.4]

Bolton are in the middle of a huge slump. But you didn't need me to tell you that, did you? The league table tells you all you need to know with the Trotters rock bottom on just three points from six matches. What's gone wrong? It's hard to say because their squad doesn't look markedly weaker than it has been in recent years. While Daniel Sturridge and Johan Elmander have departed, Owen Coyle has managed to secure the likes of Gael Kakuta and David N'Gog. But the team just hasn't performed.

Chelsea, on the other hand, are showing signs of clicking into gear. Ramires is looking very lively and there's a huge amount to like about Juan Mata. He's one of those players who may not do anything exceptionally well but he does a lot of things very well and is making things happen upfront for Chelsea. We sometimes see these creative foreign players take time to settle in the Premier League but the Spaniard has done so very quickly. Chelsea will however have to make do without his compatriot Fernando Torres, who got sent off just as he was starting to show some form.

Match Odds

When faced with a heavy favourite I always try to make a case for the underdog being able to salvage something from the match before assessing whether there's enough there to actually go ahead and oppose them in the betting. On this occasion I've come up with virtually no case at all.

Third plays bottom and worst still for the home fans, Opta tell us that Bolton have lost the last eight Premier League games in a row at the Reebok versus Chelsea, the longest losing run of any team at home to a single opponent. It's also interesting to note that in Chelsea's last six matches against Bolton (both home and away) they've won all six and not conceded in the last four. That's a very telling stat and means that backing Chelsea to win to nil at 2.6 represents far better value than the straightforward win at [1.58].

Correct Score

I suspect that, if Chelsea score early, the floodgates could open here. Competition for places in the forward positions is pretty intense in Andre Villas-Boas' team at the moment and the likes of Mata, Frank Lampard, Didier Drogba, Florent Malouda, Sturridge and Nicolas Anelka will all be desperate to get on the scoresheet to try and cement their places in the team. No going 1-0 up and shutting up shop then.

3-0 is my idea of a scoreline but I'm not going to put all my eggs in one basket given my first bet of Chelsea winning to nil, so 3-1 is included as a saver.

To Score

Anelka will face one of his (many) former clubs and will be using these three matches which Torres is suspended for to try and remind the manager that while the Spaniard may be the club's pin-up boy now Anelka been at the football club for some time and has always performed when called upon. He has a fine record against Bolton too with Opta telling us that he's scored five in his last eight matches against Sunday's opponents and is a confident selection in this market.

Recommended Bets

2 pts Back Chelsea to win to nil @ [2.6]
1 pt each Back 3-0 and 3-1 to Chelsea in correct score market @ [15.0] and [14.0]
2 pts Back Nicolas Anelka to score at anytime @ [2.8]

Michael Cox's View

Andre Villas-Boas has done a good so far at Chelsea, picking up some decent results whilst overhauling the squad. Even his one defeat so far, away at Manchester United, was slightly harsh on the side's performance.

The one area of concern has been at the back, where Chelsea have leaked goals in the Premier League. Their only clean sheet so far has been away at Stoke on the opening day - in their five subsequent league games, they've conceded.

I think the problem is very specific though, rather than pointing to a lack of defensive organisation. Villas-Boas wants his side to press, which means a high defensive line and space in behind. John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic aren't great at turning and sprinting to collect a pass played behind them, and in certain matches they've clearly struggled playing so high up the pitch.

Will Bolton be able to expolit this weakness? It largely depends on who they play upfront. David Ngog started ahead of Kevin Davies at Arsenal last weekend but didn't last til half-time - he went off injured and was replaced by Davies. I think Owen Coyle might call upon Davies to lead the line - he offers a physical and aerial threat, but little pace in behind.

It's significant that Chelsea's only clean sheet so far this season was against the side who are notoriously focused upon playing long balls (Stoke) - Terry and Ivanovic will be up for a physical test. If I was Owen Coyle I'd want Ngog's pace, and if he plumps for Davies instead, I think Chelsea will be OK at the back. Davies is favourite to get the nod as we've seen and for us that means backing Chelsea to keep a clean sheet at [2.6].

Recommended bet:

Chelsea to keep a clean sheet at [2.6]

To view more Opta stats for this match click here

Manchester's Reds leave it late before securing home while City show they don't need Carlos with thumping win. Meanwhile, Kenny is king on Merseyside......

Lee Dixon thinks history suggests a currently out-of-form Arsenal can still salvage something from a match where a goal glut will once again be on the cards....

Tactics, team selection, systems and momentum will all play a huge part in the outcome of this match. Lets' make some money from guessing how all these factors will pan out, says Michael Cox....

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