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Friday, September 14, 2012

Lee Dixon: Remembering 1989

Lee Dixon was playing for Arsenal on the day of the Hillsborough disaster. Here, he reflects on a few weeks which made a big imprint on him and thousands of others...

In 1989, I was 25-years-old. I was an experienced footballer but I was still a young man and the mixed emotions I experienced that spring left their mark. That year has become an important part of my life.

Like everybody else, I'm very pleased to see that the truth about what happened at Hillsborough on April 15 1989 is finally coming out. I was playing for Arsenal at Highbury that day. Our opponents were Newcastle, we won the match 1-0, but I had to check the records to remind myself. The reasons for that are obvious: the result did not matter. It was a very strange afternoon and, as news emerged about the extent of the tragedy, it became a horrendous period.

Football was in mourning but, as players, we had to concentrate on trying to win the league. We did so in a subdued manner. Games were postponed and when we returned to action we won two matches before losing to Derby and drawing against Wimbledon. That meant that Liverpool, who had managed to win five league games in a row, were now in the perfect position to win the league.

Our trip to Anfield on May 26 would be a title decider, the kind of match that the whole nation watches. We were under no illusions, most neutrals wanted Liverpool to win. I admit, professional as I always was, there was part of me that thought it would be ok if they did.

Anfield was somber and expectant. George Graham told us in the dressing room that we would hand out flowers before kick-off, going to every corner of the ground, but then our focus had to be on winning the match. Perhaps Kenny Dalglish said something similar to his players, but the point is that, in the end, you respect the emotions and the occasion by doing your job.

Everybody knows what happened next but I admit that I still occasionally put on the DVD of Fever Pitch to remind myself. The presentation of the trophy on the Anfield pitch was a surreal experience and celebrations passed in a blur. I will never forget that the Liverpool fans were magic, staying on to applaud. The Kop clapped us off the field and we clapped them. It was a night to remember.

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Saturday, August 18, 2012

Lee Dixon: Manchester City will be too good for Saints

Newly promoted Southampton face possibly their toughest match of the season when they go to the Etihad on Sunday afternoon. Lee Dixon explains why he expects Manchester City to start with a comfortable win...

Running out at home as champions for the first match of a new campaign is a fantastic feeling. There's a buzz around the stadium and the wind is well and truly in your sails. You've got a new kit on and new team-mates to link up with. On top of all that, the sun is often shining.

You can't rest of your laurels though, there can be no basking in former glories because football moves fast and the importance of a good start in the Premier League should never be underestimated. Having won title in the most dramatic circumstances last season, Manchester City must now aim to dominate and cement their place at the top of English football.

It's been an unexpectedly quiet summer at Eastlands. I thought they would bring in players and I think Roberto Mancini did too. Inquiries were made about Daniel Agger, a player I rate, but he isn't making the move and I do think City need a centre-back.
Southampton also have a glow about them. They were very unlucky not to win the Championship but they return to the top flight on the back of consecutive promotions. Manager Nigel Adkins' will need all his nous and resilience if Saints are to take anything from this one and it will be interesting to see how talented youngsters Jay Rodriguez and Nathaniel Clyne fare against top opposition. Over all, I reckon they can stay up this season.

Half-time/Full-time

Not that I think they can take anything from this one. In one sense, it's bad luck, beginning your return to the Premier League with a trip to the champions, but at least they're getting it out of the way early and if Saints could take a point from this it would be a massive boost.

City will be too good. They looked sharp in the Community Shield, we all know that in Carlos Tevez, Sergio Aguero, Mario Balotelli and Edin Dzeko they have the most devastating attackers in the Premier League, but Mancini's new 3-4-1-2 formation is intriguing. It liberates the full-backs and could allow Pablo Zabaleta and Micah Richards new attacking impetus.
Everybody knows that City came within minutes of losing to QPR on the last day of the 2011/12 season but the fact remains they only dropped two points at Eastland in the entire campaign. They won't yield any against Saints and I'll be backing them to be up at the break and at full-time.

City to win to nil

Opta tell me that City scored the highest percentage of second-half goals of in the Premier League in 2011/12 so I think they could be a goal up at half-time before adding one or two in the second-half. They were the division's top scorers and Southampton hit the most goals in the Championship. Despite my feeling that City aren't the finished article at the back, I expect the champions to kick off with a win to nil.

This is a similar introduction for City as last season, when they started their opening game slowly against before eventually demolishing the newly promoted side 4-0.

I can see a similar fixture here – will probably defend resiliently in their first fixture back in the Premier League, but eventually City’s wealth of options and superior fitness levels will prove too much.

Backing ‘Any Unquoted’ in the Correct Scores market at [3.55] covers City scoring four goals or more. This shouldn't be seen as an indictment of though - as demonstrated last season, a tonking by City doesn’t necessarily mean a season of struggle.

I agree with Lee on the Half/Time full time bet but at [1.67] it's a bit on the short side for me. However, when this market is as short as this I often look into the half-time markets to see if I can manufacture a price from the correct scores.

Looking back at last season only failed to keep a clean sheet at half time on one occasion (v who scored twice) and they were 1-0 or 2-0 up at the break on 12 of the other 18 home games.

I agree with Lee, that a win-to-nil is likely, so I'll be placing a 'dutch' bet on 1-0 & 2-0 at half-time, a combined price of around [2.0]. I'm prepared risk of City getting three or more first-half goals for the better price - remember that, of the 67 goals scored at the City of Manchester stadium last season, 48 came in the second half.

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Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Lee Dixon: Struggling sides to share the points at Ewood Park

2pts Back the draw @ [3.6]
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ [2.04]
1 pt Back nine points and above in the bookings odds market @ [2.6]

/ Lee Dixon / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Luis Suarez rues yet another missed chance, the story of Liverpool's season

"I don’t think this will be a goalless draw because I’m not sure either defence is good enough to keep a clean sheet. A Blackburn one is a rare sight indeed at Ewood Park with Opta telling us Steve Kean’s men have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League games."

Two teams who have seriously under-achieved this campaign meet on Tueday night and it's hard to pick a winner. The draw is over-priced anyway so it makes sense to think a share of the spoils is on the cards, says Lee Dixon.

A match between two sides who really need a win for very different reasons. Blackburn were extremely poor at the weekend and let indiscipline get the better of them both in terms of poor defending and a late red card. As for Liverpool, by hook or by crook, they need to start winning league matches.

Match Odds

You could almost blindly lay Liverpool for every Premier League match they're involved in. They continue to be under-priced both home and away and the odds on offer about them winning games are based solely on reputation and some of the names in that squad. Ten days ago we took a huge price on Newcastle to beat them and they duly obliged in a game they pretty much dominated throughout.

You can probably see where I'm going with this! I simply can't have Liverpool at [2.16] to win a tricky away game against a side fighting for their lives. Ewood Park is a tough place to go and we saw how much Manchester United struggled to break them down last Monday.

The defending champions needed a moment of brilliance from Antonio Valencia and a late second from Ashley Young to put the game to bed and the way the United players celebrated at the end was a good indication of just how tough it was for them.

A few weeks ago I thought the goals of Yakubu would save Blackburn from the drop but he's been a bit quiet over the last few games and they really need him to start firing. He actually seems to save his best for the bigger games so I wouldn't be too surprised if he does a good job of leading the line against a Liverpool defence who seems a shadow of the stingy one that started the season so well.

I think Blackburn are over-priced at [3.9] but the stats don't lie. Opta tell us Rovers have won just two of the last 26 Premier League games against Liverpool so they obviously struggle for some reason against them. But having watched how dogged they were against Manchester United and having said Liverpol were far too short, that means there's definitely value in the draw price at [3.6]

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I don't think this will be a goalless draw because I'm not sure either defence is good enough to keep a clean sheet. A Blackburn one is a rare sight indeed at Ewood Park with Opta telling us Steve Kean's men have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League games.

But neither side is exactly prolific either and in Liverpool's case a clue for that may be in the fact they keep hitting the frame of the goal rather the goal itself. As Opta reveal: the Reds have hit the woodwork 28 times this season. If all their woodwork strikes (and the oppositions') had gone in, they'd be 13 points better off. Other reasons include the fact that no-one has made a good fist of giving Luis Suarez good support and the fact the service to the Uruguyan has often been poor.

1-1 would be my idea of a scoreline but under [2.5] goals is probably the best way to play this.

Bookings Odds

Don't underestimate the importance of such things as the time when a match is played. Night matches can often create a more electric atmosphere, certainly more so than those 12:45 kick-offs we see these days because of TV scheduling. A night game is also more likely to have dew on the grass and that leads to the ball zipping around nicely but also the odd mist-timed tackle.

It's the teams who are playing poorly who often get players booked and let's face it, not many sides in the division are struggling as much as these two.

Frustration boils over because you're not executing game-plans or individuals aren't doing things with the ball that they know they're capable of in training.

This match has the makings of a fiery contest and we should get at least five bookings so nine points and above at around [2.6] appeals.

Norwich stun Tottenham, Newcastle record a fifth successive win, and Everton thrash Sunderland on an afternoon of Premier League action....

After Mario Balotelli's red card yesterday, and Wayne Rooney's extended run without a yellow card, Ralph Ellis makes a case for discipline being a vital factor in this season's title race....

Followers of Lee Dixon's column would have enjoyed a great day if backing all his selections on Easter Sunday. Mike Norman explains......

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Lee Dixon: Rooney to kick Wolves while they're down

/ Lee Dixon / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

The hero Rooney and the unsung hero Carrick

"We could try to make a case for Wolves getting something from this game but we won’t."

Wolves are a side in a slump and Manchester United very much a team on the up. Sometimes the obvious outcome leads to obvious bets and that's probably the case here, says Lee Dixon.

If Manchester United win the Premier League his season - and they're now clear favourites to at 1.64 - then expect to hear plenty of "typical United to win without playing that well", "it was City's to lose and they did" and other such comments. But that of course is just the point. Maybe over the past few seasons Fergie's men have indeed benefited from other contenders imploding and have won matches from almost impossible positions. But if others have lost their heads, it's credit to United that they've kept theirs and managed to win ugly when they've needed to. Isn't that what being a champion is all about?

Match Odds

There are so many stories involving United players this campaign. Wayne Rooney is on track to have his most prolific season ever, Paul Scholes came out of retirement to save the day, Ryan Giggs told Father Time just what he thought of him once again, David de Gea went from laughing stock to the one who laughed both last and longest.

But let's not forget the unsung heroes. Jonny Evans has had a great season after losing his senior partner Nemanja Vidic and, that Manchester City game aside, has looked confident and composed. Michael Carrick has also been very reliable without ever doing anything too spectacular but that's just his way. Both will be key players from now until the end of the season.

We could try to make a case for Wolves getting something from this game but we won't. Opta tell us they have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games (W1 D5 L8), a run which started with a 1-4 defeat to Manchester United. Just as the hosts appear to be going through a real slump, so United seem to be at their very best at the moment. Not only do I think United will win, I think they'll so comfortably. 3-0 is my idea of the sort of scoreline we'll get here.

Manchester United clean sheet?

I've tipped 3-0 as a final score but it could easily be 2-0 or 4-0. Either way, I don't fancy Wolves to score here simply because they're not playing well enough against a team who is confident at the back and defending as a unit. A United clean sheet looks good value at [2.2].

First Goalscorer

No prizes for originality but Wayne Rooney is going through one of those runs where every time he takes a shot, it seems to go in. Only Robin van Persie looks hotter than him at the moment in this league and Rooney will be eyeing up the chance to finish as the Premier League's top scorer http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=102873735&ex=1&origin=MRL with the easier run-in. Opta tell us he's scored seven goals in his last four Premier League matches and it's worth backing him to get the opener here.

2 pts Back Manchester United to win @ [1.35]
1 pt Back Manchester United to win 3-0 @ [12.0]
2 pts Back a Manchester United clean sheet @ [2.2]
2 pts Back Wayne Rooney to be first goalscorer @ [4.5]

Saturday brings a pair of relatively low key Premier League fixtures with Swansea travelling to Fulham for a mid-table battle while bottom club Wigan attempt to win a second home game of the season with West Brom the visitors...

Andrew Atherley once again roots through the statistics ahead of this weekend's cup and league games with Liverpool and West Brom catching the eye...

Gerrard scores three as Liverpool blitz Everton at Anfield. Meanwhile, in the Champions League big bets are landed on emphatic Bayern and Italian drama......

Monday, March 12, 2012

Lee Dixon: Grant to Holt any Wigan revival

3 pts Back Norwich to beat Wigan @ [1.9]
1 pt Back Norwich to win to nil @ [3.4]
2 pts back Grant Holt to score @ [2.4]
1 pt Back 13 corners or more @ [2.7]

/ Lee Dixon / 10 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Grant Holt leaves defenders battered and bruised but also scores plenty of goals

"A Norwich win is just about the weekend banker (Manchester United at home to West Brom would be the other) and that’s not something you’d often say when talking about the Premier League weekend fixture list."

Of all the matches in the Premier League this weekend, this is as close to a home banker as you might get. Wigan are in deep trouble whereas Norwich keep on showing they can more than compete at this level and have a proven goalscorer in Grant Holt, says Lee Dixon.

Match Odds

I suspect that if you asked any neutral which of the teams battling to fight relegation they'd most like to see avoid the drop, the most popular answer would be Wigan. Myself included.

I've met Roberto Martinez several times when he's been a guest on the Match Of The Day 2 sofa. He's one of the nicest blokes you'll ever meet in football and we speak a similar language when it comes to the way we see the game. He's tried really hard to get his side to play a good brand of football, keeping the ball on the deck and approaching the game in the right way. The problem this season is that he quite simply doesn't have the resources to execute that philosophy. He's had little or no money to spend of his own and was powerless to prevent his most creative player last year - Charles N'Zogbia - from leaving when a big offer came in.

This may well be the season that it's all too much for them. They've done incredibly well to remain in this league as long as they have without getting themselves into financial difficulties. If they do go down - and given that they're [1.28] for the drop the writing appears to be on the wall for them - they'll at least be in a far better position than they were when they came up all those years ago.

I've praised Norwich before for playing the game in the right way themselves. And though Opta tell us that they're not on a great run at home at the moment with just one win in their last five, this is arguably the easiest game they'll have to improve on that record.

A Norwich win is just about the weekend banker (Manchester United at home to West Brom would be the other) and that's not something you'd often say when talking about the Premier League weekend fixture list. But that's how I see it and in addition to the [1.91] about that, it may also be worth pushing the boat out a little more and backing them to win to nil at [3.4].

To Score

No prizes for originality here but Grant Holt is the man to be with. Not only is the skipper the team's top scorer with 10 but he's also in form, with three in his last three. He's a handful at the best of times and Wigan aren't the sort of side who will enjoy 90 minutes of hustling, bustling, nudging, holding and whatever else. He's a very decent player and has done extremely well to score as many goals as he has in his first season but Opta tell us he's also committed more fouls than any other player in the league this season. But let's focus on his goals. He's around [2.4] to score.

Corners odds

Slightly left of centre, this last one, but I fancy plenty of corners in this game. Norwich like to get the ball out wide and with the aforementioned Holt always an aerial threat, they're always happy to settle for a corner. Jean Beausejour added some extra width to Wigan's attack when he arrived in January and 13 or more corners at around [2.7] is worth a small interest.

Everton narrowly beat Tottenham at Goodison Park to blow the race to finish in the top four wide open......

Rovers and Wanderers pick up three vital points each against relegation rivals as Wolves look sunk and Hughes seethes. Meanwhile, O'Neill outfoxes Dalglish and Drogba earns three points for Chelsea......

Tottenham's run of two straight defeats in the league has been talked about as a mini-crisis and though a trip to Goodison Park is never easy, Harry Redknapp's men are good for at least a point. Emmanuel Adebayor will be...

3 pts Back both teams to score @ [1.7]

Monday, March 5, 2012

Lee Dixon: Arsene Wenger's AC Milan dilemma

Champions League

/ Lee Dixon / 05 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Main men. Theo Walcott and Robin van Persie train ahead of the Milan game but will Arsene Wenger risk them both?

"The dilemma Wenger has is whether to play his best team in this game. If he does and they somehow go through he’ll be hailed a genius."

Arsenal's team selection will be the main talking point ahead of this match because only the most optimistic of all Arsenal fans will believe progressing is actually possible. If it's a good XI, at least the Gunners have a really good chance of winning the match.

In between the devil and the deep blue sea. In between a rock and a hard place. That's the situation in which Arsene Wenger finds himself going into the second leg of this Champions League knock-out match. Arsenal were destroyed 4-0 in the first leg in Milan and, if they were to find a way of progressing, I suspect they might consider re-naming the Emirates Stadium the Arsene Wenger Stadium because it would go down as one of the biggest turnarounds in European football history. But before we get too ahead of ourselves, let's remember the Betfair market makes the Gunners [34.0] to progress and that price is actually considerably shorter than what it was; they were matched at [50.0] to go through in the aftermath of the first leg and have been shortened on the back of those two fine domestic wins against Spurs and Liverpool .

The dilemma Wenger has is whether to play his best team in this game. If he does and they somehow go through he'll be hailed a genius. If he does and they win but still don't go through he'll be praised for keeping the team's winning streak going, which is a good thing in terms of morale and motivation with plenty still to play for in the Premier League. On the other hand, if he does and they lose at home or worse still, a couple of key players get injured, he'd be slated for it. Imagine if Robin van Persie was one of them. What about if he plays a weakened team? He'll get criticised for not giving it a go having come this far and accused of a lack of ambition. I wouldn't want to be in his shoes over the next 24 hours.

But reading between the lines in terms of what he's said since the Liverpool win I suspect he'll play pretty much his best team, with the exception of any players who are carrying a knock. As Arsene said himself, when asked about starting van Persie: "I would not be very credible to tell you that we want to score five goals and that I will leave Robin van Persie out."

And if he does go for it by picking his strongest side, there's no reason why they can't win the game, if not the tie. Especially considering the names who have been ruled out for AC Milan: Kevin-Prince Boateng, Clarence Seedorf, Pato, Maxi Lopez (all injured) and Massimo Ambrosini (suspended).

As the away team in a game like this, your first priority is to keep things tight and to go into the break without conceding. But Milan will have an eye on an away goal, which really would kill the tie for once and for all. And I think they'll get it. Arsenal aren't the greatest at defending at the best of times and they'll be even more exposed than usual with the pressing need for goals themselves. Given that and the fact Milan put a 'mere' four past them at home, backing both teams to score is the even better bet than the Arsenal win.

2 pts Back Arsenal to win @ [2.16]

AC Milan have thrown away convincing leads before, and Arsenal have a good historic record against Italian sides, but is there any way back for the Gunners? Here's what Opta say......

Chelsea's miserable form continues at they go down 3-1 to Napoli, whilst a late goal in Moscow means it was a night of huge prices being landed....

No English club has ever won at the San Paolo and Tobias Gourlay is not convinced that Chelsea are the team to put that right...

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Lee Dixon: Black Cats defeat in the bag

/ Lee Dixon / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Demba Ba showed against Manchester United that he's often at his best in the biggest matches

"But I’m edging towards Newcastle in the match odds. They have the firepower and the Black Cats might just encounter another blip after a stunning run."

Sunderland have improved massively under Martin O'Neill but this Newcastle side have been far more consistent over the course of the season and with a little help from Demba Ba, should make home advantage count, says Lee Dixon.

Match Odds

I talked to Alan Pardew on Match of the Day 2 last week and he had an interesting take on his side's 2-2 draw with Wolves. Pards said that the solitary point they picked up after 90 minutes might get Newcastle where they want to be at the end of the season - a glass-half-full guy if ever there was one!

Pardew gave his players the Monday off following the game and that adult approach could be just what the team needs after a disappointing result.

In fierce local rivals Sunderland, they are playing a side that suffered a painful weekend themselves, coming unstuck at West Brom in dramatic fashion, after a good run.
Regardless of that 4-0 defeat, Martin O'Neill has done a fantastic job since taking the helm at the Stadium of Light. His team are in a very decent position and could even push on for a European spot. In a strange way, I suspect that Pardew would have preferred to face the Black Cats when they were on the crest of a wave, as Martin O'Neill will have his players fully fired up for this one.

But I'm edging towards Newcastle in the match odds. They have the firepower and the Black Cats might just encounter another blip after a stunning run. The Opta stats back up the fact the hosts have had the upper hand in this fixture in recent times: Newcastle have won eight, drawn five and lost just one of the last 14 Premier League games against Sunderland.

At [2.22] I'm prepared to back the Toon for home win number eight of the season.

To Score

Demba Ba has had a fantastic season upfront for Newcastle and he's been joined in attack by fellow countryman Papiss Cisse, who has been most impressive in the four games since his arrival. Full of effort and energy, Cisse has fully deserved his two Premier League goals with his all-action displays.

However, he is a slight doubt for the match and I see Ba getting back amongst the goals himself. Against Manchester United he proved to us that he enjoys the big games and I fancy the Senegalese to score his 17th goal of the season on Sunday. As Opta say, Ba has not gone three league starts without a goal since joining Newcastle and I think he will get on the scoresheet again.

Booking Odds

This is generally a card-heavy affair with sendings off in the two of the last three, and I can't resist a dabble on nine points and above in the booking odds market
.
Recommended Bets

2pts Back Newcastle to win @ [2.22]
2pts Back Demba Ba to score @ [3.0]
2pts Back 9pts and above in Booking Odds @ [1.7]

Michael Cox says:

I'm expecting plenty of cards in this derby - there were six yellows and one red in the previous meeting between the two sides, and there could have been many more.

There are a couple of obvious players to back to pick up a card - Lee Cattermole is one, but Cheick Tiote strikes me as a walking yellow card here. He's picked up five yellows from 15 Premier League games this season, and was in good booking form at the African Cup of Nations, with three from his four games. Against Wolves last week he gave the ball away too much then had to stop counter-attacks, and I think he might be forced to break up Sunderland moves with fouls. So I'll back him to be shown a card at anything around [3.0].

It's difficult to predict the starting line-ups for this game, but that means a potentially exciting tactical battle, says Michael Cox...

Chelsea travel to the Hawthorns, the increasingly impressive Swansea are at Roberto Martinez's Wigan and Stoke play hosts to a Norwich side who can't stop scoring on the road. Let's see what Feizal Rahman and his Opta stats make of...

Table-toppers Manchester City are at home to Bolton, Aston Villa travel to relegation-threatened Blackburn and Everton visit out-of-form QPR. But what do Opta say ahead of the games?...

Monday, February 27, 2012

Lee Dixon Video: England job is made for Harry Redknapp

Euro 2012

/ Lee Dixon / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

All the factors point to England appointing Harry Redknapp, according to Lee Dixon

Lee Dixon expects Stuart Pearce to inject some passion into the England dressing room while in temporary charge, but believes the job is made for Harry Redknapp...

In an exclusive video interview ahead of Wednesday's friendly with Holland, Betfair's football ambassador said Pearce will remind the players of their responsibilities when wearing an England shirt.

But looking ahead to Euro 2012, Dixon wants and expects Redknapp to be in the hotseat, citing his man management skills, tactical awareness and - importantly - the fact he is English.

See the full interview below:

Fabio Capello has walked and Harry Redknapp is the man they all want to step into the hotseat. He's got a lot going for him in terms of filling the role but save your money when it comes to backing...

Michael Lintorn looks back on the reigns of the last five England managers, judging which were successful and who failed, and labelling Sven-Goran Eriksson the best of the bunch......

Harry Redknapp is expected to lead England at Euro 2012 after it was confirmed on Wednesday evening that Fabio Capello has stepped down......

Friday, February 24, 2012

Lee Dixon: Too tough to split Arsenal and Tottenham

/ Lee Dixon / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Gareth Bale is one of many match-winners in this Spurs team

"A draw is a lively runner because home advantage negates to some extent the fact that Spurs are the better football team right here, right now."

A case could be made for all three outcomes in this match so the draw is the call at an attractive price. One thing is for sure: there will be no shortage of goals, says Lee Dixon.

I've written elsewhere that this is arguably the most important north London derby of Arsene Wenger's time at Arsenal. Others have had league titles at stake and they've all had bragging rights at stake. But this time it's almost Arsene's job that could be at stake.

Being out of both domestic Cups, the Premier League title race and now almost certainly the Champions League is bad enough. But if they were to lose at home to Tottenham to cap it all off, it's not too far-fetched to think that could be the point at which the fans finally turn on their manager in numbers.

This really is one of those games where you could make a case for all three outcomes. Spurs are the in-form side, high on confidence and won this fixture at White Hart Lane earlier in the campaign. If we're looking for a potential match-winner in Harry Redknapp's team we could list quite a few names: Rafael van der Vaart and Emmanuel Adebayor (though both are doubtful for the game at the time of writing), Gareth Bale, Luka Modric, even Louis Saha. But if we look at Arsenal's team, it's pretty much only Robin van Persie who you'd expect to take the game by the scruff of the neck and win it for his side. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has impressed over the past month but it's asking a lot of a youngster to come in and play a blinder in his first north London derby. And therein lies part of the problem for the Gunners.

But Arsenal are the home team and at this moment in time will see this as the biggest match they have left to play this season. That's the message Arsene will be sending his players and if they can't get fired up for this one, they never will.

A draw is a lively runner because home advantage negates to some extent the fact that Spurs are the better football team right here, right now.

It's the biggest price of the three and at [3.6] the stalemate is where my money will be.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 goals (1.74) is my strongest selection of the match. Opta tell us Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last 32 matches in all competitions against the Gunners so I think it's safe to assume one here is pretty much out of the question. The two games last season ended 3-2 and 3-3 and at White Hart Lane in October it was 2-1 so recent results also suggest we'll get goals.

From a tactical point of view, there's also the fact that both these teams are at their best when being positive and sending men forward. Momentum will shift throughout the game and there will be times when it's Arsenal playing on the break and times when it's Spurs. Either way, goals are very much on the cards.

To Score

Robin van Persie has served us well as a goalscorer bet in this column throughout the season but, that hat-trick against Blackburn aside, he hasn't looked quite as dangerous as he did a few weeks back. That said, I wouldn't really want to nominate anyone else in the Arsenal team!

With doubts over the fitness of Adebayor and van der Vaart I'm going with Gareth Bale, who has netted three times against Arsenal, his joint-highest tally against any opponent in the Premier League (along with Wigan). He's been given almost a free role in recent times and should have at least a couple of good chances to grab a goal.

Bookings Odds

Going low on bookings proved a shrew bet when Manchester United hosted Liverpool a couple of weeks ago.

No-one wanted to make the Luis Suarez situation any worse by doing something stupid and passionate though the game was, there wasn't too much by the way of indiscipline. At least not during the ninety minutes!

But I do fancy at least five bookings (or three and a red) here. I don't think we'll see ridiculously dangerous tackles or anything but there's pace on both sides and that's a recipe for the odd trip or pull of the shirt to break down an attack. At [1.65] that's my final bet of the game.

2 pts Back the draw @ [3.6]
3 pts Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.74]
1 pt back Gareth Bale to score @ [4.5]
2 pts Back nine points and above in the bookings odds market @ [1.65]

Wolves have met their deadline to hire a new manager before Saturday's trip to Newcastle, but the appointment has done little to calm relegation fears......

Gareth Purnell is normally against Aston Villa, but on Saturday he is fully behind them and expects them to get at least a point against Wigan. Here, he tells us why......

High-flying Manchester City play hosts to a struggling Blackburn side and it's extremely unlikely that we're going to have an upset on the cards here. Expect a City win and plenty of goals, says Lee Dixon....

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Lee Dixon Video: Man City players will forgive Tevez

/ Lee Dixon / 20 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Tevez and Mancini kiss and make-up?

Lifelong Man City fan Lee Dixon believes most City players would be prepared to forgive Carlos Tevez if the Argentinian returned to the team in goalscoring form...

In an exclusive video interview, the Betfair Ambassador said the football dressing room is a unique environment where trangressions are quickly forgotten.

With Tevez now back in Manchester after his self-imposed exile - and reports suggesting he may be prepared to apologise to Roberto Mancini - Dixon said the City players "won't care one jot" about the Argentinian's refusal to play should he score some vital goals in the run-in.

Both Norwich and Tottenham made changes ahead of their FA Cup ties last weekend, and both failed to win, whilst Arsenal left out their first choice goalkeeper. Ralph Ellis discusses team selections....

Arsenal have endured a miserable few days and, unless they buck their ideas up very quickly, they could be humiliated by their local rivals on Sunday, says Richard Aikman....

Norwich have been one of the surprise teams in the Premier League, thanks in no small part to John Ruddy, says Hannah Duncan. Next stop, England?...

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Lee Dixon: Newcastle can hold Tottenham

/ Lee Dixon / 11 February 2012 / 4 Comments

Senegal duo Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse can form a formidable partnership for Newcastle

"All these factors mean the draw has appeal at [4.6] but I actually prefer the lay of Spurs. I wouldn’t be that surprised if Newcastle actually won the match so I’d rather cover that eventuality too."

Newcastle keep on improving and in Papiss Cisse they've recruited a dangerous attacker who can form a super partnership with Demba Ba. The former can score at White Hart Lane and help Newcastle to earn at least a draw.

We'll have to wait and see whether Harry Redknapp takes the England job or not. For all we know, he doesn't want it at this moment in time. But all the speculation about it won't be doing him or Tottenham any good at the moment when they have an in-form Newcastle making the trip to White Hart Lane.

2 pts Lay Spurs @ [1.53]
3 pts Back both teams to score @[1.9]
Back Papiss Cisse to score @ [4.2]

Tottenham's match away at Liverpool wasn't exactly a classic but Redknapp will have seen it as a good point earned at a ground where the home side very seldom gets beaten. This match is a different story though and the Spurs boss will be seeing it as one that he really needs to win if his side are to stay in the title race.

The Betfair market makes them [1.53] to do just that but I'm not so sure about that price. Newcastle may be missing Cheick Tiote (international duty), Johan Cabaye (suspension) and probably Ryan Taylor as well for this match (injury) but they've done well in their absences and, in Demba Ba, they have their star and talisman back and in-form, not to mention his mate Papiss Cisse. More on him later. Opta tell us that Spurs have won only two of their last 10 games against Newcastle but on the other hand they've lost just one of their last 29 home matches in the league.

All these factors mean the draw has appeal at [4.6] but I actually prefer the lay of Spurs. I wouldn't be that surprised if Newcastle actually won the match so I'd rather cover that eventuality too.

Both Teams to score

The over/under 2.5 goals market looks a tough one to call. My preference would just about be for over 2.5 goals but then again 1-1 is a lively runner ahead of this match, too. Confused? Let me try and explain and find the better bet then. We'll leave the 1-1 alone because that scoreline would already be a winner with our lay of Spurs and instead back 'yes' on the 'both teams to score' market. Newcastle have some serious firepower with that duo I've already mentioned and I'd be absolutely amazed if Spurs don't get at least one playing at home. So that looks the call at [1.9].

To Score

It always takes time to adapt when you start playing in a new league but one of the advantages of being new to it are that opposing players may not know so much about you. Papiss Cisse is a good example of that. Premier League defenders probably won't have seen much of him so far given he hasn't featured in the Champions League and didn't really catch the eye at the African Cup of Nations. It's one thing having a plan of how to mark a Robin van Persie or a Darren Bent whose games you're so familiar with, even if they end up scoring anyway, it's another to have a plan for one whose strengths and weaknesses you don't know so much about.

Cisse looked good last Sunday, coming short to receive the ball, moving well when not in possession of it and scoring a cracking goal. I was watching the game with former England international Dion Dublin who said that his gangly running style and the way he controls the ball and shoots reminded him of Nwankwo Kanu. I can see where he's coming from and if he ends up being as good as my former Arsenal team-mate then Newcastle have some player on their hands. Demba Ba is the one with the amazing scoring record - 16 goals in his last 16 matches in the league - but my money is on Cisse to get a goal for Newcastle on Saturday.

Michael Cox says

There will probably be goals in this game, but [2.32] for 'Under 2.5 goals' seems a little overpriced. Spurs weren't much of a goal threat away at Anfield on Monday night, and Emmanuel Adebayor is having a mid-season slump - he hasn't scored for eight games. Newcastle, meanwhile, can be a little too cautious on the road, and with Yohan Cabaye and Ryan Taylor likely to be out, they lack long-range goal threats. They depend too much on their Senegalese duo upfront and, with Michael Dawson superb at Anfield and probably able to keep them quiet, I'll be on unders at that price.

Recommended Bet
Back under 2.5 goals @ [2.32]

***

Lee Dixon's Fantastic Five
Get up to £50 back if one leg of Ambassador Dixon's Premier League fivefold lets you down! See this weekend's selection here.

This may not be the best match you'll see all weekend in terms of quality but these are desperate times for these two sides and it's Wolves who get the nod to win it, says Lee Dixon....

Two huge relegation battles are amongst the games Feizal Rahman has previewed this weekend, and it's not good news for Blackburn and Wigan if our man is correct....

Jaymes Monte takes you through the team news, Opta stats and betting markets for three of Saturday's Premier League games......

Lee Dixon: Wolves win in the Bag

2 pts Back Wolves to win @ [2.62]
Lay West Brom in-play if they take the lead
1pt Back Kevin Doyle to be first goalscorer @ [9.0]

/ Lee Dixon / 11 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kevin Doyle scored the winner against 10-man QPR last week

"A single goal may well be enough to settle this one between two somewhat nervy relegation-threatened sides and I think Wolves will be the ones getting it. "

This may not be the best match you'll see all weekend in terms of quality but these are desperate times for these two sides and it's Wolves who get the nod to win it, says Lee Dixon.

Wolves' defeat at home to Liverpool a couple of weeks ago was hugely disappointing all round for them, whereas the week before they lost at home to Aston Villa in a match they would certainly have got something from had they not had Karl Henry sent off. But they benefited from a sending off themselves away at QPR last week and turned a one goal deficit into a win. Mick McCarthy won't be too concerned about the circumstances of that win and will see the result merely as a springboard from which to go on a good run that can help his side beat the drop.

Match Odds

McCarthy has said he's had enough of 'heroic defeats'. You know, the ones where you're the better team for most of the match but concede two goals from just about the only two shots your opponent has on target or conceded in the last minute when you were on top. At this stage of the season he'd much rather win ugly than draw or lose pretty so it may be that this match ends up being one of those that should be best avoided by the so-called 'purist'.

West Brom may actually prefer to be playing away because their results on the road have actually been better of late than those at the Hawthorns. But Opta tells us they've kept just the one clean sheet away from home in the last 31 away matches so the stats are stacked against them being able to keep one here. A single goal may well be enough to settle this one between two somewhat nervy relegation-threatened sides and I think Wolves will be the ones getting it.

In-play tip

But if this match doesn't quite pan out that way and Wolves go a goal behind, don't lose faith in them salvaging at least something from it. Opta say no side has recovered more points (13) from losing positions than Wolves in the top flight this season. Whether that's Mick McCarthy's ability to motivate his players to believe they can get something out of a game from losing positions or high levels of fitness throughout the team that mean they can keep on going till the bitter end, is obviously up for debate. Either way, if the Baggies go a goal up, you may want to think of reaching for that lay button and opposing West Brom in-play.

First Goalscorer

There's no doubt that Kevin Doyle is very much McCarthy's sort of player. Tough, hard-working, dedicated, honest and professional. Very much the sort of player McCarthy was himself. The goals have admittedly dried up a bit for the Republic of Ireland international since his Reading days and he hasn't always been first-choice in the Wolves XI of late but he was the man who instigated that comeback last week after coming off the bench, with an assist for the equaliser and popping up with the winner himself. He may just get the nod to start this one after that performance and I wouldn't be surprised if he marks his return to the starting line-up with the game's opening goal.

Two huge relegation battles are amongst the games Feizal Rahman has previewed this weekend, and it's not good news for Blackburn and Wigan if our man is correct....

Jaymes Monte takes you through the team news, Opta stats and betting markets for three of Saturday's Premier League games......

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Lee Dixon: A point apiece at Anfield

/ Lee Dixon / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Danger man. Gareth Bale needs to be monitored closely.

"They’ve (Liverpool) beaten the big guns in both Cup competitions as well as in the league, yet found it hard to beat the seemingly easier teams, more often than not, at home."

Spurs are the better side at the moment but home advantage should provide a good leveller again and the smart money is on a result that would please both managers. A draw it is, says Lee Dixon.

Before a ball had been kicked in anger, many were predicting that it would be Liverpool who would improve significantly on last year's finish (sixth) and that Spurs would probably finish in a very similar position to last year's fifth. But here we are, almost exactly two thirds into the season and it's Tottenham who have made all the progress, sitting pretty in third, not yet out of the title race and looking good for a Champions League place at the very least. As for Liverpool, they've had a strange sort of season. Steven Gerrard has been out injured for most of it; they lost the grossly under-rated Lucas to injury; Andy Carroll has spent most of the time on the bench; and other big money signings like Charlie Adam and Jordan Henderson are yet to find their best form. They've beaten the big guns in both Cup competitions as well as in the league, yet found it hard to beat the seemingly easier teams, more often than not, at home.

A win here for either side would be a huge boost, no doubt about that.

2 pts Back the draw at [3.55]
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ [1.98]
1 pt Back 1-1 at [7.8]
1 pt Back Andy Carroll to be first goalscorer at [10.0]

One of the keys to this match will be how much Gareth Bale sees of the ball. If he receives it in space and has a chance to run at defenders at pace, Liverpool could be in all sorts of trouble. Goals, crosses, cards, penalties, they all come into the equation. Bale is often accused of not performing often enough: looking brilliant one day and mediocre the next. But every time I've seen him play live this season he's been very impressive. Not quite good enough to have got my vote for Player Of The Season - the Betfair market has got that one right with David Silva very much the front-runner - but pretty good nonetheless.

This is a really tough match to call. A case could be made for Liverpool given that they were excellent away at Wolves in midweek and very professional in knocking Manchester United out of the FA Cup the weekend before last. The fact that they're one of only two sides who are unbeaten at home in the league seems to suggest they're very unlikely to get beat here.

As for Spurs, well I've touched already on the fact that they've been much the better team this campaign and got a monkey off their backs when a comfortable 2-0 win at Anfield last season ended a run of 16 Premier League away games at Liverpool without a victory (Opta). They've also lost just twice in their last ten away matches so the stats support the premise that losing here would be going against the grain.

We profited from backing the draw in Chelsea v Manchester United because we felt that the away side was the better team but that home advantage would provide a good leveller for Chelsea. I'm not sure many would have imagined the match would have panned out the way it did but the reasoning behind the bet was right and we should take the same approach again here. Back the stalemate at [3.55].

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

One of the ongoing debates this season has been around what Liverpool's best XI is. Glen Johnson, Daniel Agger, Martin Skrtel and Jose Enrique would be my defenders. Lucas has been sorely missed because Liverpool don't really have anyone with those exact same characteristics in their squad but Steven Gerrard's return gives them some proper steel in the heart of midfield. I like Craig Bellamy out wide and even though he's been a little inconsistent, I think Charlie Adam's range of passing makes him an automatic choice, too. Luis Suarez is their best attacking player and his return from suspension is massive to Liverpool. But beyond that it's hard to say who should play and where and perhaps therein lies one of Liverpool's problems.

I think they'll go 4-4-2 here tonight and I'm not expecting a repeat of yesterday with the floodgates opening in terms of goals. Spurs' defence is somewhat under-rated and they don't concede many themselves so unders is quite a confident selection at [1.99]. Those who are already on the draw may not want to double up on 1-1 at [7.8] but that would be my idea of the most likely scoreline.

First Goalscorer

Only Kenny Dalglish knows whether he intends to hand Luis Suarez a start tonight. But whether he does or doesn't, I think Andy Carroll may well keep his place in the team. In truth he hasn't made the best of his chance whilst the Uruguyan has been out suspended but he did score away at Wolves and that may have just been the goal he needed to get his confidence back. It's not my strongest bet of the night but if he does start, a quote of [10.0] about him may look pretty big once the game is under way.

They may have taken just a point, but it was the manner of Manchester United's comeback that should warn Man City that the title race is still wide open. Ralph Ellis reviews the weekend action....

The matches involving the Premier League's three newest clubs - QPR, Swansea and Norwich - presented opportunities to land large sums on Betfair this weekend......

Magnificent Wayne Rooney scores a brace and inspires champions to come from 3-0 down to draw with Chelsea. Overs backers are smiling too......

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Lee Dixon: Defoe can help Spurs to a point at the Etihad Stadium

/ Lee Dixon / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jermain Defoe doing what Jermain Defoe does best

"Spurs have a good record against City though with Opta revealing the Lilywhites have suffered just five defeats in the last 29 league matches between the two sides."

This is a huge match in the title race whichever way you look at it. Spurs are more than capable of denying Manchester City a point and keeping the title race wide open, says Lee Dixon.

With half of the season gone not many would have expected this to have been a match between two title contenders. There will be those who think that Spurs won't be able to keep going like they have been (for whatever reason) but whilst they're still within touching distance of the pace-setters, we can't rule them out. And if Spurs can't quite keep up till the bitter end, at the very least they'll have a say in who does win it as a result of their matches against Manchester City and United.

1 pt Back the draw @ [3.85]
1 pt Back-to-lay under 2.5 goals @ [2.16]
Back Jermain Defoe to score at anytime @ [4.5]

Managers will tell you that it's 1-0 away wins that win you leagues, not 5-0 drubbings. What they mean is that securing three points when you're not playing that well is the quality of champions. City's win at Wigan was a case in point. They created a fair few chances but there wasn't a huge amount of fluency in their passing and in the end it was a couple of really good saves from Joe Hart that secured the points. That and the fact that his players did a good job of defending their lead in a pragmatic way rather than going in search of more goals. That gameplan doesn't always work of course but on this occasion it did.

Spurs' chances of contending for the title were dealt a huge blow last Saturday with a disappointing home draw against Wolves, but those results are going to happen from time to time when you're not scoring enough goals. In recent matches they scored just one, or occasionally two, and defended very well. But if you go a goal behind you need to be able to go up a couple of gears if you want to win the league title. How many times have we seen Manchester United over the years stage comebacks after going behind?

Neither side is necessarily at their best just now though it's perfectly understandable that City are slight odds-on to win this game. Spurs have a good record against City though with Opta revealing the Lilywhites have suffered just five defeats in the last 29 league matches between the two sides. They've also lost just one of their last nine away matches - and that in controversial fashion at Stoke - and will be desperate to avenge that thrashing at the Lane earlier on in the season. My money is on the draw at [3.85].

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

A tough market to call. Spurs have kept just the one clean sheet in their last eight games away from home (Opta) so I don't think there's much chance of another against the league leaders. But it's not inconceivable that they'll concede just the one, whereas I've already touched on the fact they're not scoring too many themselves. The best way to play this is to back unders at [2.16] at the off and lay off your bet if there aren't any goals in the first 20 minutes. There may end up being three goals in the match but it may take a while for them to come.

To Score

Emmanuel Adebayor is unavailable for this match because of the terms of his loan to Spurs. That may actually not be a bad thing for Harry Redknapp. Firstly because he hasn't been in great form recently and secondly because he's a temperamental character who has been known to get a bit over-excited in matches against teams he used to play for. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/8252803.stm OK, admittedly he's still a City player, but you know what I mean. Either way, it makes Redknapp's life pretty simple when it comes to picking his striker and Jermain Defoe is almost certain to get a game at last.

There's been speculation Defoe may want to move on given that at this stage of his career he wants to be starting every week, especially with a major championship coming up in the summer. It may be just that - speculation - but Defoe obviously feels he should be playing more. This is a good chance to prove he deserves more game time for the rest of the season and there's no reason why Defoe can't go out and do what he does best. Back him to find the net at any time.

Michael Cox says:

Harry Redknapp isn't regarded as the league's most astute tactician, but he'll be well aware that Manchester City have often struggled this season against sides that defend deep before playing on the break - Napoli were a good example, as more recently, were Sunderland.

With that in mind, and without Emmanuel Adebayor, I expect Jermain Defoe to start upfront because of his pace. But I think he might be closely supported by Gareth Bale, who is increasingly playing through the middle and is therefore more of a goalscoring threat himself. Few players are as devastating on the break, so I'm surprised to see Bale at [15.0] to open the scoring.

Back Gareth Bale to be first goalscorer @ [15.0]

Gareth Purnell is not convinced by the market's assumption that we are in for a minor goal-fest when Manchester City face Tottenham on Sunday afternoon - read on to find out why...

Sir Alex Ferguson has tried various approaches at the Emirates in recent years with various degrees of success. Michael Cox ponders the recent history of the fixture and how that will shape Manchester United's tactics here....

It's their home form that's the problem and this away trip to the Reebok Stadium should suit Liverpool just fine. A low-scoring win for the away team looks the bet with Craig Bellamy being the one to break the deadlock,...