Championship Betting: Back Wolves for safety and Blackburn for the drop

"If Blackburn are going to ensure their Championship safety tonight’s game against Millwall seems like a real make-or-break point in their season."

Back Blackburn to be relegated at 6.611/2

Callum Davis takes a look at the Championship relegation battle ahead of Blackburn's trip to Millwall tonight - a game that could prove pivotal to Rovers' survival hopes...

Even by the Championship's usual standards of tense competition, this season has been one of the most closely contested for many years. Although the second automatic promotion spot and playoff positions are far from being decided, it is at the bottom of the table where the most enthralling drama looks set to unfold. 

A mere five points separate Barnsley in 23rd from Ipswich in 15th and all the teams in between have the genuine threat of relegation to League One hanging over them as we approach the final two weeks of the season. As predictions go, this one is exceptionally hard to call and the cluster of clubs sitting so closely together above the relegation zone means that the outcome could conceivably come down to goal difference on the last day.

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, momentum in the Championship at this stage of the season has previously proven to be the key to the success or demise of any club hoping to avoid relegation or gain promotion, and this year will be no different. Reading's late acceleration into the automatic promotion spots last season was largely due to their extraordinary run of victories late in the campaign, while Bolton's latest surge up the table into the playoffs is another example of the effect a good run of form can have in such a closely congested table as the Championship. You only have to look at Crystal Palace's abysmal run which has seen them go from challengers for automatic promotion to a team who are clinging on to a place in the playoffs after no wins in six to see how damaging a dip in form can be.

While Bolton have found some stability since relegation and genuine form under Dougie Freedman, the two other relegated sides from last season, Wolves and Bolton, have found themselves facing the prospect of the dreaded double drop. Although Wolves currently reside in the relegation zone in 21st, it is Blackburn's current demise which is looking more critical. Ahead of tonight's visit to The Den, Blackburn sit just two points above the drop on the back of five losses from six away games and on the precipice of losing their Championship status.

Blackburn's season has been punctuated by a series of farcical managerial dismissals which has turned the Rovers from much fancied pre-season promotion candidates to a team in free-fall with a fundamental crisis of leadership.

If Blackburn are going to ensure their Championship safety tonight's game against Millwall seems like a real make-or-break point in their season. With remaining fixtures against Crystal Palace at home and Birmingham away on the last game of the season, Rovers fans will feel uneasy with the prospect of needing to get a result in one of those two games to ensure safety. Millwall are unbeaten in three against Blackburn and have kept clean sheets in each of those games, and despite Millwall's indifferent home record of late I'm unconvinced that Blackburn will be able get the result they need to distance themselves from getting drawn into the relegation places on the final day of the season. 

With that in mind, and given Blackburn's form and tricky run in, 6.611/2 for Blackburn to be relegated looks like the best value in the relegation market. If they come away from south London without a result that price should begin to shorten as Palace and Birmingham beckon.

Although the pressure is firmly on Wolves manager Dean Saunders to rescue the failing Midlanders, I'd be backing them to carry on their recent peak in form (ten points from their last six) to finish the season strongly and avoid relegation by the skin of their teeth, leaving Blackburn fans with the prospect of an uncertain future in the third tier of English football.

Recommended Bets

Lay Wolves to be relegated at 2.0421/20
Back Blackburn to be relegated at 6.611/2

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Championship: Wolves poised for £24 million windfall

"Jarvis has played in both of their league matches this campaign under new boss Stale Solbakken, knuckling down and performing well regardless of his apparent desire to depart."

With Wolves about to pocket huge fees for their two most established stars, it is difficult not to feel impressed...

Wolves suits Steve Morgan and Jez Moxey were rightly ridiculed for bungling the search for Mick McCarthy's replacement, but their tough negotiating this summer is about to deliver remarkable results in the transfer market.

After weeks of wrangling, deals to send prize assets Steven Fletcher and Matt Jarvis to Sunderland and West Ham are edging closer. And while losing key players is far from ideal as they strive to return to the Premier League at the first attempt, they are poised to recoup staggering eight-figure sums for both.

The Fletcher transfer seems the nearest to conclusion after they reportedly accepted Sunderland's fourth offer for the Scotland striker, believed to total around £14 million, with the majority paid up front rather than being clause dependent.

There are even rumours, albeit played down by Wolves, that young Black Cats forward Connor Wickham could head to Molineux as part of the deal. Despite disappointing on Wearside last season, the 19-year-old has fared better at Championship level before for Ipswich.

Jarvis could also be on his way, with West Ham thought to have submitted a third bid that comes close to meeting their £10 million valuation for the one-time England winger, whose crossing ability is seen as an ideal fit for a Sam Allardyce side.

Unlike Fletcher, who confirmed handing in a transfer request to try to force a move, Jarvis has played in both of their league matches this campaign under new boss Stale Solbakken, knuckling down and performing well regardless of his apparent desire to depart.

That earned him a warm reception from fans as they claimed their first home victory of 2012 against Barnsley on Tuesday night, their three goals - one by reinstated front man Sylvain Ebanks-Blake - inspiring hope that their attack can thrive without Fletcher.

Solbakken has made it clear though that, if the duo are the follow Michael Kightly out of the club, he expects some of the funds raised to be reinvested. FC Copenhagen's Christian Bolanos is an alleged £3 million target for the Jarvis role.

Wolves are 11.010/1 to claim the Championship title after winning one and losing one of their first two games.

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Opta Stats: Wolves v Bolton

Opta / Richard / 29 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Terry Connor is still searching for his first win as Wolves manager

Time is running out for rock-bottom Wolves and a win against fellow strugglers Bolton is an absolute must...

Bolton have won seven and lost just one of the last 10 meetings with Wolves. Match odds

Only Arsenal (19) have picked up more points from losing positions than Wolves (14) this season. Match odds

Wolves have won just one of their last 16 Premier League matches (W1 D5 L10) and taken just one point from the last 18 available. Match odds

Wolves have taken just one point from the last 24 available at Molineux and lost the last six in a row on home soil. Match odds

Bolton haven't won three league games in a row since December 2006. Match odds

Owen Coyle's side have lost their last four Premier League away games and have failed to score in any of those defeats. Wolves clean sheet?

Only Wolves (221) have allowed their opponents more shots on target against them in the top flight then Bolton (173).

Bolton have earned 16 points in their head to head games with the other teams in the current bottom five, six more than the next highest haul which is Wolves with 10. Match odds

The Trotters have been caught offside just 39 times in the Premier League, fewer occasions than any other team.

Wolves have scored just one goal from outside the box this season, fewer than any other team.

Blackburn might have won at Old Trafford earlier in the campaign but they won't repeat the feat this time round......

Tottenham are in desperate need of three points if they are to hold on to fourth spot......

Liverpool head to Tyneside on the back of desperate defeats to QPR and latterly Wigan......

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Opta Big Match Stats: Wolves to be left in turmoil by Man United

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Wolves lost 2-0 to relegation rivals Blackburn last time out at Molineux

"No team with fewer than 12 points after 14 Premier League home games have ever survived in the Premier League (Wolves have 11)."

Wolves inflicted Manchester United's first loss of 2010-11 when they last visited Molineux, however the Opta stats suggest that a repeat is very unlikely...

Wolves have allowed their opponents more shots on target against them than any other team in the Premier League this season (208)
Wolves have comfortably the leakiest home defence in the division, keeping just one clean sheet in 14 games at Molineux and shipping two or more on an inexcusable 11 occasions. Their dire figures aren't helped by having conceded a league-high 15 strikes from outside the box. They must face the fiercest travelling attack, Manchester United firing three or more four times away from Old Trafford.

Wayne Rooney has scored seven goals in his last four Premier League matches
Rooney's 20 goals so far this season would have been enough to see him crowned the division's top scorer in three of the last five years, but with Robin van Persie a further six ahead, it is [6.6] that he claims that honour for the first time. The England forward is giving it a good shot though and will be confident of adding to his tally having netted twice in the reverse fixture, a 4-1 triumph in December.

No team with fewer than 12 points after 14 Premier League home games have ever survived in the Premier League (Wolves have 11)
This is one of a number of Opta trends that spell disaster for Wolves, another being that they have won just once in 14, conceding 14 times in their last four matches. Another crushing defeat could see them conclude the weekend bottom - Wigan, the only side below them, host West Brom on Saturday - and send their odds to finish 20th, as they did in their last relegation campaign, inwards. It may also lead to a rethink over the decision to appoint Terry Connor until the summer.

Recommended Bets:
Manchester United to score three or more @ [2.5]
Rooney to score @ [2.0]
Wolves to finish bottom @ [3.0]

Click here to read even more from Opta about this encounter

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Lee Dixon: Rooney to kick Wolves while they're down

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

The hero Rooney and the unsung hero Carrick

"We could try to make a case for Wolves getting something from this game but we won’t."

Wolves are a side in a slump and Manchester United very much a team on the up. Sometimes the obvious outcome leads to obvious bets and that's probably the case here, says Lee Dixon.

If Manchester United win the Premier League his season - and they're now clear favourites to at 1.64 - then expect to hear plenty of "typical United to win without playing that well", "it was City's to lose and they did" and other such comments. But that of course is just the point. Maybe over the past few seasons Fergie's men have indeed benefited from other contenders imploding and have won matches from almost impossible positions. But if others have lost their heads, it's credit to United that they've kept theirs and managed to win ugly when they've needed to. Isn't that what being a champion is all about?

Match Odds

There are so many stories involving United players this campaign. Wayne Rooney is on track to have his most prolific season ever, Paul Scholes came out of retirement to save the day, Ryan Giggs told Father Time just what he thought of him once again, David de Gea went from laughing stock to the one who laughed both last and longest.

But let's not forget the unsung heroes. Jonny Evans has had a great season after losing his senior partner Nemanja Vidic and, that Manchester City game aside, has looked confident and composed. Michael Carrick has also been very reliable without ever doing anything too spectacular but that's just his way. Both will be key players from now until the end of the season.

We could try to make a case for Wolves getting something from this game but we won't. Opta tell us they have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games (W1 D5 L8), a run which started with a 1-4 defeat to Manchester United. Just as the hosts appear to be going through a real slump, so United seem to be at their very best at the moment. Not only do I think United will win, I think they'll so comfortably. 3-0 is my idea of the sort of scoreline we'll get here.

Manchester United clean sheet?

I've tipped 3-0 as a final score but it could easily be 2-0 or 4-0. Either way, I don't fancy Wolves to score here simply because they're not playing well enough against a team who is confident at the back and defending as a unit. A United clean sheet looks good value at [2.2].

First Goalscorer

No prizes for originality but Wayne Rooney is going through one of those runs where every time he takes a shot, it seems to go in. Only Robin van Persie looks hotter than him at the moment in this league and Rooney will be eyeing up the chance to finish as the Premier League's top scorer http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=102873735&ex=1&origin=MRL with the easier run-in. Opta tell us he's scored seven goals in his last four Premier League matches and it's worth backing him to get the opener here.

2 pts Back Manchester United to win @ [1.35]
1 pt Back Manchester United to win 3-0 @ [12.0]
2 pts Back a Manchester United clean sheet @ [2.2]
2 pts Back Wayne Rooney to be first goalscorer @ [4.5]

Saturday brings a pair of relatively low key Premier League fixtures with Swansea travelling to Fulham for a mid-table battle while bottom club Wigan attempt to win a second home game of the season with West Brom the visitors...

Andrew Atherley once again roots through the statistics ahead of this weekend's cup and league games with Liverpool and West Brom catching the eye...

Gerrard scores three as Liverpool blitz Everton at Anfield. Meanwhile, in the Champions League big bets are landed on emphatic Bayern and Italian drama......

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Follow The Money: Watch Clockmaker at Wolves

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 10 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

FTM's first selection runs at Wolverhampton

"Eleven Fifty Nine has come in for strong support, backed from [7.6] in to [4.3]."

Today's Follow the Money comes from Sandown, Chepstow and Wolverhampton.

In the 14:20 at Wolverhampton, Clockmaker has been backed from [7.8] in to [5.2]. Tim Easterby trained six-year-old won here in December and since then has been running well on the all-weather, finishing placed on his last three starts. Today's trip over 7f looks ideal and if he gets first run on the rest of the field he will be very hard to beat.

At Sandown, in the 15:50, Eleven Fifty Nine has come in for strong support, backed from [7.6] in to [4.3]. Anthony Honeyball's mare made a winning debut and then finished runner up on her next start behind the useful Colour Squadron with both horses pulling clear of the reminder. She was beaten narrowly at Ffos Las last month, the soft going that day perhaps wasn't ideal and today's better ground should be suit her and she looks to have a good chance of adding to the trainers good strike rate in bumpers.

Our final selection is from Chepstow where Lady Bridget has been drifting all morning from [3.05] out to [3.5] in the 16:15. This four-year-old filly has only shown a moderate level of ability, although she has worn cheek pieces on her last two starts and that has brought some improvement as she finished runner up on both occasions. On form she has a chance, but today's heavy going and testing track are both big negatives and we are happy to take her on at short prices today.

Recommended Bets
Back Clockmaker @ [5.2] Wolverhampton 14:20
Back Eleven Fifty Nine @ [4.3] Sandown 15:50
Lay Lady Bridget @ [3.5] Chepstow 16:15

Today's Follow The Money comes from the meetings at Leicester, Wincanton and Sandown....

Welcome to Follow The Money on Thursday 8th March. Today's selections are from the cards at Southwell and Wincanton....

Today's Follow The Money comes from the meetings at Lingfield and Fontwell....

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Premier League News: Wolves take remarkable risk on Connor

Premier League / Michael Lintorn / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Wolves have promoted number two Terry Connor until the summer

"Despite being chosen, Connor is just a [1.3] favourite on Betfair. The reason is that interim appointments are only settled after the caretaker has survived ten consecutive league games."

Wolves have met their deadline to hire a new manager before Saturday's trip to Newcastle, but the appointment has done little to calm relegation fears...

First Alan Curbishley turned it down, then Brian McDermott said no and finally Walter Smith decided it wasn't for him, so Wolves have been forced to confirm assistant Terry Connor as their boss until the end of the season.

Having stated 11 days ago upon sacking Mick McCarthy, who paid the price for a 5-1 home derby loss to West Brom which pushed them back into the relegation zone, that "it is not a job for a novice", they have wound up with a coach who has never managed at any level.

Although this writer questioned whether any of the trio initially linked with the Molineux job - Steve Bruce, Curbishley and Neil Warnock - were a significant improvement on McCarthy, you suspect that most Wolves fans would have preferred one of that experienced trio to his former number two.

The most damning verdict on the decision has been made by Betfair punters, with the Black Country strugglers backed in to [1.67] for the drop already on Friday morning. It is a hefty [6.4] that Connor immediately calms the doubters with a victory at Newcastle this weekend.

You may wonder why Betfair's next Wolves manager market remains open, and why despite being chosen, Connor is just a [1.3] favourite. The reason is that interim appointments are only settled after the caretaker has survived ten consecutive league games. Click here for more information.

So the fact that there are still people willing to lay the 49-year-old suggests that they are sceptical as to whether Wolves will stand by him if he encounters a difficult start.

He is incredibly the third contender to be backed at odds-on during the process, while McDermott and Smith traded at [2.0] and [2.12] at various stages, so it has been a great market for bold layers.

A case could be made for all three outcomes in this match so the draw is the call at an attractive price. One thing is for sure: there will be no shortage of goals, says Lee Dixon....

Gareth Purnell is normally against Aston Villa, but on Saturday he is fully behind them and expects them to get at least a point against Wigan. Here, he tells us why......

High-flying Manchester City play hosts to a struggling Blackburn side and it's extremely unlikely that we're going to have an upset on the cards here. Expect a City win and plenty of goals, says Lee Dixon....

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Premier League News: Wolves axe McCarthy after derby loss

Premier League / Michael Lintorn / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mick McCarthy paid the price for a 5-1 Black Country derby defeat

"Whoever inherits the role has far from an impossible task leading them to safety, with only goal difference following the severity of Sunday’s reverse putting them below QPR and Blackburn in 18th."

Steve Bruce is being linked with a speedy return to management after Wolves decided to sack Mick McCarthy in the aftermath of their 5-1 home hammering against neighbours West Brom...

He led them to promotion and then guided them to survival twice, but Wolves' heavy home defeat to rivals West Brom saw the strugglers finally lose faith with Mick McCarthy, prompting his dismissal on Monday morning.

Steve Bruce is the early frontrunner at [4.0] in Betfair's next manager market, with Neil Warnock and Alan Curbishley also featuring prominently.

Whoever inherits the role faces far from an impossible task leading them to safety, with only goal difference following the severity of Sunday's reverse putting them below QPR and Blackburn in 18th, and just four of the top seven left to play, three of those at Molineux. They are [1.77] to go down.

Given that McCarthy has kept Wolves up from more worrying positions in the past, it is arguable that the inflictors of Sunday's humiliation rather than the impact that it will have on their chances of beating the drop is the reason that he lost his job.

It definitely doesn't appear as though he has been axed because there is someone infinitely better currently out of work, as the names currently being mentioned indicate.

Of Bruce, Warnock and Curbishley, this writer would probably plump for the latter, who hasn't been relegated this century, has achieved more top-half Premier League finishes than the other two combined and has no track record for failure.

The question that Wolves will be asking however is how significant it is that the former Charlton and West Ham boss hasn't been employed for close to three-and-a-half years, and whether it would be too big a gamble to hire someone who has been out of work for so long.

Meanwhile, those who love a long shot can find odds of [100.0] on McCarthy succeeding Fabio Capello as England manager, but surely proud Irishman that he is, he wouldn't consider the gig even in the unlikely event that he was offered it...

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Lee Dixon: Wolves win in the Bag

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 11 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kevin Doyle scored the winner against 10-man QPR last week

"A single goal may well be enough to settle this one between two somewhat nervy relegation-threatened sides and I think Wolves will be the ones getting it. "

This may not be the best match you'll see all weekend in terms of quality but these are desperate times for these two sides and it's Wolves who get the nod to win it, says Lee Dixon.

Wolves' defeat at home to Liverpool a couple of weeks ago was hugely disappointing all round for them, whereas the week before they lost at home to Aston Villa in a match they would certainly have got something from had they not had Karl Henry sent off. But they benefited from a sending off themselves away at QPR last week and turned a one goal deficit into a win. Mick McCarthy won't be too concerned about the circumstances of that win and will see the result merely as a springboard from which to go on a good run that can help his side beat the drop.

Match Odds

McCarthy has said he's had enough of 'heroic defeats'. You know, the ones where you're the better team for most of the match but concede two goals from just about the only two shots your opponent has on target or conceded in the last minute when you were on top. At this stage of the season he'd much rather win ugly than draw or lose pretty so it may be that this match ends up being one of those that should be best avoided by the so-called 'purist'.

West Brom may actually prefer to be playing away because their results on the road have actually been better of late than those at the Hawthorns. But Opta tells us they've kept just the one clean sheet away from home in the last 31 away matches so the stats are stacked against them being able to keep one here. A single goal may well be enough to settle this one between two somewhat nervy relegation-threatened sides and I think Wolves will be the ones getting it.

In-play tip

But if this match doesn't quite pan out that way and Wolves go a goal behind, don't lose faith in them salvaging at least something from it. Opta say no side has recovered more points (13) from losing positions than Wolves in the top flight this season. Whether that's Mick McCarthy's ability to motivate his players to believe they can get something out of a game from losing positions or high levels of fitness throughout the team that mean they can keep on going till the bitter end, is obviously up for debate. Either way, if the Baggies go a goal up, you may want to think of reaching for that lay button and opposing West Brom in-play.

First Goalscorer

There's no doubt that Kevin Doyle is very much McCarthy's sort of player. Tough, hard-working, dedicated, honest and professional. Very much the sort of player McCarthy was himself. The goals have admittedly dried up a bit for the Republic of Ireland international since his Reading days and he hasn't always been first-choice in the Wolves XI of late but he was the man who instigated that comeback last week after coming off the bench, with an assist for the equaliser and popping up with the winner himself. He may just get the nod to start this one after that performance and I wouldn't be surprised if he marks his return to the starting line-up with the game's opening goal.

2 pts Back Wolves to win @ [2.62]
Lay West Brom in-play if they take the lead
1pt Back Kevin Doyle to be first goalscorer @ [9.0]

Newcastle keep on improving and in Papiss Cisse they've recruited a dangerous attacker who can form a super partnership with Demba Ba. The former can score at White Hart Lane and help Newcastle to earn at least a draw....

Two huge relegation battles are amongst the games Feizal Rahman has previewed this weekend, and it's not good news for Blackburn and Wigan if our man is correct....

Jaymes Monte takes you through the team news, Opta stats and betting markets for three of Saturday's Premier League games......

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Bundesliga Betting: Felix's new-look Wolves to savage Freiburg?

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 10 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Felix Magath has totally revamped the Wolfsburg squad

"Wolfsburg have kept clean sheets in their last three home games, and last week they held title contenders Borussia Monchengladbach to a creditable goalless draw."

Felix Magath is a figure that polarises opinion in German football, but Kevin Hatchard thinks the teak-tough tactician may finally be working his magic at Wolfsburg.

Wolfsburg vs Freiburg, Fri 19:30 BST, Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Wolfsburg [1.78], Freiburg [5.2], the draw [3.95]

After a flurry of winter signings, Felix Magath might finally be dragging Wolfsburg in the right direction. The transfer-loving taskmaster brought ten new players to the Volkswagen Arena in January, and arranged loan exits for underachievers like misfiring striker Srdjan Lakic and creaking defender Sotirios Kyrgiakos. Magath's wheeling and dealing drew criticism from fans underwhelmed by a poor first half to the campaign, but improved performances since Christmas may be winning over the doubters.

Wolfsburg have kept clean sheets in their last three home games, and last week they held title contenders Borussia Monchengladbach to a creditable goalless draw. The Wolves were helped by some tight offside decisions that went in their favour, but generally they now look more organised in defence than they have in the past. The rearguard also impressed in the recent 2-0 defeat at Bayern Munich, as the Bavarians were kept at bay for an hour. Consistency of selection is no doubt helping matters, with defenders Ricardo Rodriguez, Christian Trasch and Felipe starting each of the last three games together.

Last weekend Freiburg twice came from behind to draw 2-2 with Werder Bremen, but they are still rock bottom of the Bundesliga. New boss Christian Streich has collected four points from three games in charge, but the team's miserable away form is a big problem. The Breisgau-Brasilianer have won just once in nine away games, and have conceded more away goals (28) than anyone else in the division.

Recommended Bets: Wolfsburg have won six of their ten home games, and I fancy them to win this one. Backing Wolfsburg to win at [1.78] is a bit modest, so if you want a more beefy price back Wolfsburg to Win to Nil at [3.55]

Stuttgart vs Hertha Berlin, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Stuttgart [1.93], Hertha [4.4], the draw [3.7]

These two sides are in terrible form, and are in serious danger of relegation if they don't buck up their ideas soon. Hertha are paying the price for a disastrous falling-out between general manager Michael Preetz and coach Markus Babbel, which saw Babbel sacked just a day after announcing he would leave at the end of the season. The capital club's decision to hire Michael Skibbe as Babbel's replacement is frankly unfathomable. Skibbe's last job in Germany was at Eintracht Frankfurt, and he contributed massively to last season's relegation. Skibbe was unable to prevent the goals drying up for Eintracht after Christmas, as they entered a fatal tailspin that saw them collect just seven points in the second half of the season.

Skibbe's shown he still has whatever the opposite of the Midas touch is, because Hertha have lost all four games he's helmed in league and cup. To make matters worse, a team that averaged 1.8 goals per game under Babbel this season has scored just once in four games under Skibbe.

Stuttgart are 11th, a precarious five points above the dropzone, and the pressure has steadily built on coach Bruno Labbadia after a run of two wins in 12 matches. Last weekend Stuttgart did well to twice come from behind in a 2-2 draw at Bayer Leverkusen, but the optimism that result generated was wiped away by Wednesday's abject surrender to Bayern Munich in the German Cup. Labbadia rightly slammed his players for lacking courage.

Recommended Bet: Both teams are desperately low on confidence, and it's worth considering Hertha have drawn five of their ten away games. Back the draw at [3.7]

Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Werder [1.96], Hoffenheim [4.3], the draw [3.75]

Werder let me down in their last home game when I tipped them to beat Bayer Leverkusen, but the fact remains they have won seven out of nine at the Weserstadion. Werder have drawn all three matches since the winter break, but should have won at least two of them on chances created.

Hoffenheim's season is descending into chaos. TSG crashed out of the German Cup in midweek, losing 1-0 at home to second division Greuther Furth. That defeat cost coach Holger Stanislawski his job, with keeper Tom Starke admitting there is plenty of unrest at the club. Hoffenheim have won just one of their last ten league games, and they have lost seven times on the road.

Recommended Bets: Back Werder to win at [1.96]. In six of Hoffenheim's seven away defeats, they have trailed at half-time, so back Werder/Werder in the HT/FT market at [3.2]

Schalke are in the thick of the title race, and Kevin Hatchard expects them to maintain their momentum against Mainz this weekend....

After so many close shaves with Bundesliga success in recent years, Schalke are right in the mix once again this year. Is this the year they actually win it, asks Ben Lyttleton....

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Opta Stats: Wolves v West Brom

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 08 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Victory at QPR last week was a huge boost to Wolves' survival chances

Wolves head into Sunday's Black Country derby on a high, but the statistics suggest that they will do well to claim victory over neighbours West Brom...

West Brom have won seven and lost only two of the last 12 meetings in all competitions against their Black Country rivals.

Peter Odemwingie has scored in their last two games against Wolves.

West Brom have won four of their last six visits to Molineux (W4 D0 L2).

The Baggies have kept just one clean sheet in their last 31 Premier League away matches.

Wolves have lost four and won none of their last five Premier League games at Molineux.

Wolves have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League home games and none in the last 11.

In their last 11 home games, nine visiting teams have scored two or more goals against Wolves.

Wolves have now recovered more points from losing positions than any other team in the top flight this season (13).

Only QPR (15) have dropped more points from winning positions than West Brom (14).

West Brom have scored the highest percentage of goals in the opening 15 minutes of any team in the top flight.

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Opta Stats: QPR v Wolves

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 02 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Djibril Cisse scored the opener on his QPR debut at Aston Villa in midweek

QPR invested in several strikers in January, however the Opta stats suggest that goals will be scarce in this clash between two strugglers...

Steven Fletcher has scored in each of his last four Premier League away appearances.

Wolves have only won seven of 37 Premier League games against London clubs.

There have been just two goals scored in the last four league meetings between Wolves and QPR at Loftus Road.

QPR have won just one of their last 11 home matches in all competitions with Wolves (W1 D7 L3), but that was the last encounter in December 2008.

Victory over Wigan ended a run of five games without a win on home soil for QPR (W0 D1 L4).

Wolves have won none of their last 10 Premier League away games (W0 D4 L6) but have drawn the last three in a row, including two in London.

Wolves have kept one clean sheet in their last 15 Premier League away games.

Wolves have won none of their last nine Premier League matches (D4 L5).

Mick McCarthy's side have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 20 Premier League games.

Wolves are the only team not to score a goal from outside the box this season.

Liverpool have hit form recently and are even able to welcome Luis Suarez back on Monday night - will they halt Tottenham's title bid?...

Chelsea's home record hasn't been great this season, however after tripping up leaders Manchester City in December, they will be hopeful of causing Manchester United trouble......

Aston Villa were humiliated on their last visit to Tyneside, but will have an opportunity to claim revenge in front of the cameras on Sunday lunchtime......

Fulham have been a bit of a bogey team for Manchester City in recent seasons - will they be the ones to end the Premier League leaders' perfect home record?...

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Lee Dixon: Lucky number six for Mick McCarthy's Wolves

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mick McCarthy will have his Wolves team primed for three precious points

"I really think this is Wolves’ to lose and they will get the three points they so desire."

Wolves are mired in a five-game losing streak but Saturday's early Premier League kick-off gives them the best opportunity yet to break that horrible run, says Lee Dixon

Wolves v Swansea, Saturday 12:45, live on Sky Sports 2
This may sound ridiculous but if Wolves had only defended better and taken their chances against West Brom they would have won the game. What I mean is that if they could cut out the silly errors at the back and be a touch sharper in front of goal the three points could, probably should, have belonged to Mick McCarthy's men.

You could pretty much say the same about any losing side but I thought there was actually a lot to like about the Wolves display in the Black Country derby. We watched the match live in the Match of the Day studio and I think McCarthy will have taken the positives from it and will be priming his boys to break their five game losing streak. And you know what? They should do it.

Match Odds - Wolves [2.06], Swansea [4.3], Draw [3.5]
It's an old cliche but a week really is a long time in football. You live from game to game and, if you are losing, those games just seem to come around ever quicker. It's worrying psychologically to lose five on the trot and Wolves will be primed to stop the rot here.

It's not just a big game for Wolves though. Swansea are 13th, two points off the bottom three, and a win for them would be massive. I suspect that Brendan Rogers' boys would be happy just to pick up their first away point of the campaign. But I really think this is Wolves' to lose and they will get the three points they so desire.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Wolves' problem last year was a tendency to give up some awful goals through defensive errors. I thought the arrival of Roger Johnson would sort that out, but they are still giving away bad goals through bad mistakes and that must be frustrating for Mick, being an ex-central defender himself.

Then again, opponents don't come much better than Swansea when you're looking for a home win. With just two goals scored, 12 conceded, and no points gained this is an ideal opportunity for Wanderers to cut out the blunders at the back and register a win. I think a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline is likely here and will be backing under 2.5 goals at [1.86].

Half-time/Full-time
In keeping with the expected low-scoring nature of the game I will try for bigger odds by backing draw/Wolves in the HT/FT market at odds of around 5.8.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Wolves to win @ 2.06
2pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.86]
1pt Back draw/Wolves HT/FT @ [5.8]

There's one outstanding bet this weekend as far as Mike Norman is concerned, and it comes in the Bolton v Sunderland game where goals should be the order of the day....

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Opta Stats: West Brom v Wolves

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Shane Long will be fresh after starting neither Republic of Ireland qualifier

The first few minutes could prove decisive in Sunday's grudge match at The Hawthorns, with the Baggies frequently flying out of the blocks of late...

All five of the goals West Brom have scored so far this season gave been netted in the first half of matches and the last four have all been netted in the opening five minutes of games.

Steven Fletcher has scored nine goals in his last 15 Premier League appearances. Two of those goals came in a 3-1 win over West Brom last May.

West Brom have won six and lost only two of the last 11 meetings in all competitions against their Black Country rivals.

West Brom have won five and lost none of their last nine home matches against Wolves since they lost 2-4 at the Hawthorns in September 1996.

The Baggies have won just one of their last eight Premier League matches (W1 D3 L4).

West Brom have won just four out of 25 Midlands derbies in the Premier League.

Wolves have won just one of 11 Midlands derbies away from home.

Wolves have kept just two clean sheets in their last 13 Premier League away games.

Mick McCarthy's side have lost their last four Premier League games in a row. Wolves haven't lost five in a row in the top flight since April 1984.

Wolves have been 0-2 down at half-time in each of their last three Premier League matches.

Newcastle's stingy defence meets Tottenham's prolific attack on Sunday. Here's Opta's take on how that battle will unfold......

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Everton have a fine recent record against Chelsea, who have been uncharacteristically leaky at the back. Could there be a shock at Stamford Bridge?...

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Super League Betting: Wolves chance to win at Headingley

Super League / Stuart Jones / 26 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Richie Myler is back for the Wolves

"Leeds lost at the Halliwell Jones earlier this season and their good run, and record at Headingley against the Wolves, look in jeopardy on Friday night."

Once again it's Bank Holiday or bust for some of Super League's prime movers and punters. Stuart Jones selects the best bets.

The Bank Holiday weekend means Betfair punters have the chance to trade three live games in-running, the first of which is Friday evenings clash between Leeds and Warrington at the Carnegie Stadium.

The Rhinos' rotten luck with injuries this season shows no sign of abating. Centre Keith Senior is the latest to be ruled out, reportedly for the remainder of the season, and despite both men being named in the squad, question marks still hang over the fitness of full back Brent Webb and stand off Danny Maguire. The pair have been out since the Fourth Round Carnegie Challenge Cup win over Crusaders and, if either were to miss out on Friday, it would really restrict the attacking options available to the home side.

Leeds were comprehensively defeated at the Halliwell Jones earlier this season and their good run, and record at Headingley against the Wolves, look in jeopardy on Friday night. The fact that Tony Smith has been able to loan Chris Riley out to Harlequins this week speaks volumes about the strength in depth at his disposal, not only in the backs, but across the park as a whole, and they're boosted by the return of Richie Myler.

Warrington have won just once at Headingley since 2002, that success coming in the 2006 Playoff Eliminator courtesy of a last-gasp Lee Briers drop goal, but it's difficult to remember when they last visited Leeds in such good form, having notched up 232 points in their last three games, and a start of six doesn't look enough for any team against them in their current mood.

Huddersfield were given a boost mid-week when coach Nathan Brown signed a new deal, but I see very little between them and Hull at present, and I am happy to back the Airlie Birds with home advantage and a couple of points head start when the sides meet on Sunday.

The loss of Luke O'Donnell in the forwards is a huge blow to the Giants, especially given that he would have been key to negating the threat of opposite number Craig Fitzgibbon. They will have their work cut out to slow down a Hull pack that's gaining in confidence. Martin Gleeson and Sam Obst have been fine acquisitions by Richard Agar, both playing big roles in their team's return to form. The capture of a classy centre like Gleeson was something they'd been crying out for.

Elsewhere on Sunday, Wakefield entertain the Catalan Dragons at Belle Vue and I'm very surprised to see the French team asked to concede just the six points on the handicap. The Wildcats looked out on their feet at the end of extra-time against Castleford last week and I expect them to come unstuck against a superior Catalans side. As long as Scott Dureau makes the starting 13, the visitors should have no bother winning by double figures.

Recommended Bets
Back Warrington -6.5 pts @ 1.91
Back Hull + 2.5 pts @ 1.91

Stuart Jones thinks Castleford are in for a painful trip to Warrington on Friday evening while Huddersfield should have too much for St Helens...

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Premier League Betting: Wolves v Spurs

Premier League / Joe Dyer / 05 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Both these men could be very busy on Sunday afternoon

"Wolves may have a reputation as dour, attritional grinders but they can cut loose when they need to. Spurs may be known as attack-first entertainers but they can shut up shop if the occasion demands it. The market says defence will dominate on Sunday – with Unders priced at 1.83 – but I smell the whiff of goals about this one."

With AC Milan looming in the rear-view mirror, Spurs may not have their eye on the ball here - can Wolves profit? Joe Dyer may have the answers

How ironic that a successful debut season in the Champions League could derail Tottenham's bid for a second crack at the world's richest club competition.

With AC Milan in town on Wednesday night and a 1-0 first leg lead to protect, Spurs must decide whether to risk the first team at Wolves on Sunday, knowing they can't afford to let up in the league with Chelsea looking strong again and Liverpool coming up on the inside rail.

And waiting for them will be a hungry Wanderers outfit, desperate for points as they bid to beat the drop.

Match Odds - Wolves [3.15], Spurs [2.54], the draw [3.4]
With such a wide gap between league positions it's understandable that Spurs are favourites at [2.5], but it's debatable whether that is a price worth taking. The Lilywhites may have accrued six wins on the road - just one less than they've achieved at home - but the suspicion is that they remain susceptible to 'shock' defeats when the market suggests a win is likely.

And that doubt is compounded by Wolves' recent good form. Mick McCarthy's men have ended Manchester United's unbeaten run and pounded ten-man Blackpool in recent weeks. It would be no surprise to see them claim the scalp of another big club, to add to a collection that includes Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool already this season.

But is [3.15] particularly appealing for a home win? No, the draw is the bet for me at 3.4 with an In-Play lay punched in should the stalemate go short late on.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Wolves may have a reputation as dour, attritional grinders but they can cut loose when they need to. Spurs may be known as attack-first entertainers but they can shut up shop if the occasion demands it. The market says defence will dominate on Sunday - with Unders priced at 1.83 - but I smell the whiff of goals about this one. A draw is not much good to either and the urge to attack will be strong.

Both Teams to Score
Spurs have conceded a relatively low 31 goals, but they usually find a way to let one in as a poor total of five clean sheets shows. Wolves have let in 46, with just four shutouts. Backing both teams to score at nearly [1.9] appeals.

And backing a man to score those goals is the natural place to go if we're looking for bigger odds. With Tottenham's forwards misfiring it's natural to look at the midfield to provide but with doubts over Rafael van der Vaart and Gareth Bale, who will score them? Niko Kranjcar was displaying good form with two in two matches but, surprisingly, was just a sub when Tottenham went down at Blackpool. Back him around the [5.0] mark to get on the scoresheet if his name is in the Spurs starting line-up.

Recommended Bets:
Best Bet: Back both teams to score @ [1.86]
Back over 2.5 goals @ [2.16]

The two most successful football teams in England go head-to-head this Sunday lunchtime as Liverpool take on Manchester United at Anfield. Feizal Rahman selects the best bets....

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With AC Milan looming in the rear-view mirror, Spurs may not have their eye on the ball here - can Wolves profit? Joe Dyer may have the answers...

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Premier League Result: 1.08 Wolves denied at the death

Premier League / Joe Dyer / 20 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mick McCarthy's men were within minutes of an important win

Wanderers concede a late goal at The Hawthorns as golden chance slips through fingers

Wolves were primed to haul themselves off the bottom of the Premier League table at West Brom today but conceded late on as the Black Country Derby ended in a 1-1 draw.

On-loan Spurs midfielder Jamie O'Hara looked to have scored the only goal of the match but another loan signing, Carlos Vela, pounced late on to delight the home fans. Wolves were backed at [1.08] to win the match.

The result leaves Mick McCarthy's men deep in the relegation mire and they can be backed at [1.9] to go down at the end of the season.

Roy Hodgson's Baggies are just one point off the relegation zone and trading at [2.18] to exit the league.

Wanderers concede a late goal at The Hawthorns as golden chance slips through fingers...

Last year's double winners have been a pale shadow of their former selves this time around and there are signs that this could be a long-term decline, says Richard Aikman...

Following their 0-0 draw against Fulham, Chelsea's title odds have ballooned to [27.0]. If their new striker continues to struggle, that price will only drift, says Max Liu....

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Premier League Betting: Wolves v Manchester United

Premier League / Dan Fitch / 04 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is Rooney getting back to his best form?

Wolves didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet until December and though they’ve subsequently shut out Chelsea and Liverpool, both of those sides were seriously misfiring at the time.

Surely unbeaten Manchester United won't slip up against bottom of the table Wolves? Dan 'The Betting Man' Fitch doesn't think they'll be any shocks. Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [1.82].

Venue: Molineux

Kick-Off/TV: 17:30/ESPN

A total of 3 points and 19 league places currently separate table-topping Manchester United and bottom-placed Wolves, as Sir Alex Ferguson's undefeated team travel to Molineux.

Both sides were in action in midweek, with the respective results rather summing up the two sides' seasons. Manchester United cruised to victory against Aston Villa, while Wolves suffered the sucker punch of conceding an injury time goal, just when it looked like they were about to pick up a useful away point at Bolton.

There's not been much good news for Mick McCarthy of late, but he at least has no new injury concerns, although long term casualties Sylvan Ebanks-Blake, Adlene Guedioura, Stephen Hunt and Michael Kightly are all still unavailable.

For United, Darren Fletcher looks set to shake off an eye injury to start, while Rafael is expected to return after a spell out with concussion. Although Park Ji-Sung has returned from his Asian Cup duty with South Korea, it seems likely that he will be rested and allowed time to recover from the tournament.

Match Odds: Wolves [9.2], the draw [4.7], Manchester United [1.46]

If you're looking for signs that Wolves are capable of pulling off a shock, then look no further than the fact that they have already defeated Manchester City and Chelsea this season.

However, there are far more signs that indicate that Manchester United will win once again on Saturday. They are in terrific form at the moment and showed their mental strength recently against Blackpool, in a game where they refused to be beaten.

Add the fact that Wayne Rooney hit two goals and made another against Aston Villa, to suggest that he might be edging towards his brilliant best and the fact that Wolves have not scored in their last three games, and it's difficult to argue for anything but an away win. The [1.46] looks reasonable value, but you may wish to wait for the In-Play price to increase, if you fancy Wolves to make life difficult.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 [2.12], over 2.5 [1.82]

As mentioned, Wolves have not scored for three games and indeed, have struggled to find the net all season. So if we accept that they're quite unlikely to trouble the Manchester United defence, can they keep them out at the other end?

It seems unlikely. Wolves didn't manage to keep a clean sheet until December and though they've subsequently shut out Chelsea and Liverpool, both of those sides were seriously misfiring at the time.

This is not the case with United, who have broken the 2.5 goals barrier in five of their last six league games and are generally scoring for fun. It's overs all the way for me at [1.82].

First Goal Odds

The visitors opened the scoring against Aston Villa on Tuesday in the opening minute and it was no fluke. United have scored within the first five minutes in five of their last ten games, which makes the [4.8] on offer for the first goal to be scored (by either side) within the first ten minutes, pretty interesting.

If you want to play safe, it might be an idea to also bet on 11-20 minutes, which is available at [4.7]

Manchester United Clean Sheet

United have now gone three games without keeping a clean sheet, but before this they had not conceded a goal for three games. It may be then that they are overdue a clean sheet and against a shot-shy team like Wolves, the [2.16] looks like a nice price, with odds of [1.8] that they'll concede.

Best Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.82]

Recommended Bets: Back a Manchester United clean sheet @ [2.16], Back first goal with 1-10 minutes @ [4.8].

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