Bundesliga Betting: Felix's new-look Wolves to savage Freiburg?

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 10 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Felix Magath has totally revamped the Wolfsburg squad

"Wolfsburg have kept clean sheets in their last three home games, and last week they held title contenders Borussia Monchengladbach to a creditable goalless draw."

Felix Magath is a figure that polarises opinion in German football, but Kevin Hatchard thinks the teak-tough tactician may finally be working his magic at Wolfsburg.

Wolfsburg vs Freiburg, Fri 19:30 BST, Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Wolfsburg [1.78], Freiburg [5.2], the draw [3.95]

After a flurry of winter signings, Felix Magath might finally be dragging Wolfsburg in the right direction. The transfer-loving taskmaster brought ten new players to the Volkswagen Arena in January, and arranged loan exits for underachievers like misfiring striker Srdjan Lakic and creaking defender Sotirios Kyrgiakos. Magath's wheeling and dealing drew criticism from fans underwhelmed by a poor first half to the campaign, but improved performances since Christmas may be winning over the doubters.

Wolfsburg have kept clean sheets in their last three home games, and last week they held title contenders Borussia Monchengladbach to a creditable goalless draw. The Wolves were helped by some tight offside decisions that went in their favour, but generally they now look more organised in defence than they have in the past. The rearguard also impressed in the recent 2-0 defeat at Bayern Munich, as the Bavarians were kept at bay for an hour. Consistency of selection is no doubt helping matters, with defenders Ricardo Rodriguez, Christian Trasch and Felipe starting each of the last three games together.

Last weekend Freiburg twice came from behind to draw 2-2 with Werder Bremen, but they are still rock bottom of the Bundesliga. New boss Christian Streich has collected four points from three games in charge, but the team's miserable away form is a big problem. The Breisgau-Brasilianer have won just once in nine away games, and have conceded more away goals (28) than anyone else in the division.

Recommended Bets: Wolfsburg have won six of their ten home games, and I fancy them to win this one. Backing Wolfsburg to win at [1.78] is a bit modest, so if you want a more beefy price back Wolfsburg to Win to Nil at [3.55]

Stuttgart vs Hertha Berlin, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Stuttgart [1.93], Hertha [4.4], the draw [3.7]

These two sides are in terrible form, and are in serious danger of relegation if they don't buck up their ideas soon. Hertha are paying the price for a disastrous falling-out between general manager Michael Preetz and coach Markus Babbel, which saw Babbel sacked just a day after announcing he would leave at the end of the season. The capital club's decision to hire Michael Skibbe as Babbel's replacement is frankly unfathomable. Skibbe's last job in Germany was at Eintracht Frankfurt, and he contributed massively to last season's relegation. Skibbe was unable to prevent the goals drying up for Eintracht after Christmas, as they entered a fatal tailspin that saw them collect just seven points in the second half of the season.

Skibbe's shown he still has whatever the opposite of the Midas touch is, because Hertha have lost all four games he's helmed in league and cup. To make matters worse, a team that averaged 1.8 goals per game under Babbel this season has scored just once in four games under Skibbe.

Stuttgart are 11th, a precarious five points above the dropzone, and the pressure has steadily built on coach Bruno Labbadia after a run of two wins in 12 matches. Last weekend Stuttgart did well to twice come from behind in a 2-2 draw at Bayer Leverkusen, but the optimism that result generated was wiped away by Wednesday's abject surrender to Bayern Munich in the German Cup. Labbadia rightly slammed his players for lacking courage.

Recommended Bet: Both teams are desperately low on confidence, and it's worth considering Hertha have drawn five of their ten away games. Back the draw at [3.7]

Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Werder [1.96], Hoffenheim [4.3], the draw [3.75]

Werder let me down in their last home game when I tipped them to beat Bayer Leverkusen, but the fact remains they have won seven out of nine at the Weserstadion. Werder have drawn all three matches since the winter break, but should have won at least two of them on chances created.

Hoffenheim's season is descending into chaos. TSG crashed out of the German Cup in midweek, losing 1-0 at home to second division Greuther Furth. That defeat cost coach Holger Stanislawski his job, with keeper Tom Starke admitting there is plenty of unrest at the club. Hoffenheim have won just one of their last ten league games, and they have lost seven times on the road.

Recommended Bets: Back Werder to win at [1.96]. In six of Hoffenheim's seven away defeats, they have trailed at half-time, so back Werder/Werder in the HT/FT market at [3.2]

Schalke are in the thick of the title race, and Kevin Hatchard expects them to maintain their momentum against Mainz this weekend....

After so many close shaves with Bundesliga success in recent years, Schalke are right in the mix once again this year. Is this the year they actually win it, asks Ben Lyttleton....

Last season's surprise package Hannover hope to make a push for European qualification, and Kevin Hatchard fancies them to start that charge against Nurnberg....

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Bundesliga Betting: Do Bayern Munich offer any value at their current price?

German Football / Matthew Walton / 25 January 2012 / 1 Comments

Robert Lewandowki's goals can keep Dortmund in the title race

"If you want to back Bayern at a short price, fine, but you might have a job convincing this sceptic that the former champions are good value to regain their crown."

Bayern Munich are involved in a four-way tussle for the Bundesliga title but are still the overwhelming favourites at 1.66. What does recent history tell us about that price, asks Matthew Walton.

For backers of Bayern Munich at prices as low as [1.14]... these are worrying times.

In the midst of 'Oscar season' all isn't going quite so well for FC Hollywood.

And for Jupp Heynckes's star-studded team, who have previously swept the board with 22 domestic championships, the route to No.23 is proving no stroll up the red carpet.

Bayern's return to the Bundesliga after Germany's mid-season break was welcomed with a 3-1 loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach and that result, along with some worrying pre-Christmas form has made the title race exactly that... a race!

Bayern P18 (W12 D1 L5) are now joint leaders of three on 37 points along with Borussia Dortmund (W11 D4 L3) and Schalke 04 (W12 D1 L5). The resurgent Mönchengladbach (W11 D3 L4) are just a point back with the next team, Werder Bremen, a further six points adrift.

But, many will say, Bayern always come on strong in the second half of the season. They have the money, the players, the experience... more than enough to get the job done.

Well, to a point.

There are five good reasons to question the claims of Die Bayern at their current market price of [1.66].

(i) Germany's most trophied club have only won the Bundesliga title twice in the last five years (2009/10 and 2007/08).

Last season Borussia Dortmund won the league. Jurgen Klopp's side finishing 7 points clear of second-placed Bayer Leverkusen with Bayern, a full 10 points back, just making the tri-cast.

In 2008/09 it was Wolfsburg who beat the Bavarians to the title and back in 2006/07 VFB Stuttgart claimed the title with Bayern, again a full 10 points behind the eventual champions, only coming fourth and ending up in the UEFA Cup/Europa League!

(ii) Bayern's current form isn't the best... W5 D0 L3 of their last eight matches has seen their early season lead disappear, allowing others (like Dortmund W6 D1 L1) to make up ground. Munich need to find their form... and fast!

(iii) 18 games played so far in the Bundesliga. Bayern have played nine at home and nine away, whilst Dortmund have played 10 away but just eight games at home. Slight advantage there to the main challengers. Bayern must also travel to the Westfalenstadion later in the campaign (having already lost at home to Dortmund earlier in the season).

(iv) Champions League activity could also be a distraction as the title race hots up in March/April. Bayern would expect to get past Basle in the R16... which will mean at least four more matches to squeeze into their end of season schedule (even if they go out in the QFs).

(v) and let's not forget, aside of all the above points (added to fatigue, injuries, suspensions etc) that Bayern have still only won the Bundesliga in five of the last 10 years. Odds-on quotes before the season starts (let alone midway) still represent questionable value.

Should we be happy, therefore, to lump on the favourites at a pretty short price?

Dortmund have seven previous national titles to their name, most recently winning the Bundesliga in 2010/11.

They're a very big threat indeed. More so as they possess a very in-form goalscorer...young Polish striker, Robert Lewandowski. With 14 goals in 18 matches he's a highly-rated performer, even by Bayern.

Schalke 04 certainly aren't serial winners (last victorious way back in 1958) but Huub Stevens has a side who have been runners-up three times in the last six seasons. They're not easily discounted as a result.

It's only Borussia Mönchengladbach who lack any recent pedigree (their 1976/77 league win was their last of three consecutive titles in the mid-70's).

But they, along with the other two, make for a chasing pack that has both strength and depth.

If you want to back Bayern at a short price, fine, but you might have a job convincing this sceptic that the former champions are good value to regain their crown. And that's the matter which is in hand... are they value?

The logical play, given the points raised, is to take a 'value' position on their nearest (and biggest) threat, Dortmund, even considering a back-to-lay strategy.

Key Statistic

Bayern only have the sixth best record in the Bundesliga against their nearest rivals (i.e. sides in the top half of the table). Dortmund, Shalke and Mönchengladbach all have better results against the better teams.

Recommended Bets

Back Borussia Dortmund to win the Bundesliga at [3.45]

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Bundesliga Betting: Evolving Bayern are favourites yet again

German Football / Michael Lintorn / 14 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Germany defender Jerome Boateng is set to shore up Bayern's backline

"You have to go all the way back to between 1994 and 1996 to find the last example of two years passing by without Bayern being crowned champions."

Bayern Munich finished ten points shy of champions Borussia Dortmund last season - and even that only after a late flurry - but are favourites to regain the Bundesliga shield.

There have only been five occasions in the last 13 years in which Bayern Munich have failed to get their hands on the Bundesliga shield and such a disappointment never passes by without major action being taken to prevent a repeat.

That is why you have to go all the way back to between 1994 and 1996 to find the last example of two years passing by without them being crowned champions, though interestingly in that instance it was their current dethroners Borussia Dortmund that kept them away from top spot.

Bayern's latest attempt to rebuild has seen veteran tactician Jupp Heynckes return for a third spell having outperformed them with Bayer Leverkusen in 2010-11. The 66-year-old will be aware that this could be his last chance to add to the two titles that he won with the club over two decades ago.

On the pitch, midfielder Hamit Altintop and veteran striker Miroslav Klose, who hasn't replicated his international form at club level in recent years, have left on free transfers for Real Madrid and Lazio.

The majority of the big names are still there and look set to stay however, like Philipp Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery, Thomas Muller and last term's Bundesliga top scorer Mario Gomez.

In a bid to give those stars a better supporting cast, several additions have been made, with Manuel Neuer arriving in goal and his former Schalke team-mate Rafinha joining from Genoa. The backline is about to be strengthened further with a deal reached to sign Jerome Boateng from Manchester City.

Given the trouble Bayern have had finding forwards who consistently produce, they aren't gambling on Gomez delivering again, instead bringing in second-tier top scorer Nils Petersen, Japanese prodigy Takashi Usami and, most surprisingly, Tranmere's Dale Jennings, who is likely to start in the B team.

The consequence of all that is that they are as ever favourites to win the Bundesliga at [1.61], a long way clear of holders Borussia Dortmund at [6.4]. Odds of [22.0] are offered meanwhile on Heynckes claiming the Champions League trophy that he won with Real Madrid in 1997-98.

Kevin Hatchard previews three matches from the final round of Bundesliga games after a successful season of tipping...

Borussia Dortmund have already been crowned champions but with the attitude they've shown and the type of football they've been playing they're unlikely to stop winning anytime soon. Take advantage, says Kevin Hatchard....

It's been a pretty tough last six or seven years for Borussia Dortmund, who in different circumstances may have gone into adminstration rather than winning this year's Bundesliga. Richard Aikman explains how they did it....

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Bundesliga Betting: It's over but it's not over for Dortmund

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 05 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Golden boy. Mario Gotze has been one of Dortmund's shining lights this season

"I’m dumbfounded by the big price on offer for a BVB victory, so take advantage and back Dortmund to win at [3.75]."

Borussia Dortmund have already been crowned champions but with the attitude they've shown and the type of football they've been playing they're unlikely to stop winning anytime soon. Take advantage, says Kevin Hatchard.

Last weekend Borussia Dortmund sealed their first Bundesliga title since 2002, and their success is richly deserved. Charismatic coach Jurgen Klopp put together a youthful squad brimming with confidence and enthusiasm, and they have played with pace and panache. By Klopp's own admission his side were too wasteful in possession last season, unable to dominate games throughout. This time around BVB have played with much more control, and Nuri Sahin has blossomed into a playmaker who can run a game from start to finish.

While young attacking talents like Shinji Kagawa and Mario Gotze have emerged and been lavishly praised, Dortmund's success has been built on a rock-solid defence. Miserly BVB have conceded just 19 goals in 32 matches - the next-best defence (Mainz) has conceded 37. This is a remarkable achievement when you consider the ages of the regular back-four - left-back Marcel Schmelzer is 23, right-back Lukasz Piszczek is 25, while centre-backs Neven Subotic and Mats Hummels are both 22.

There's no doubt Dortmund wobbled after the winter break, and a serious injury to Kagawa dented their attack. However, with the pressure of the title race now released, BVB are dangerous opponents for anyone. They've picked up a league-high 11 away wins, and I fancy them to make it 12 at Werder Bremen.

While Dortmund have vastly exceeded expectations, 13th-placed Werder have underperformed feebly. They have defended badly all season (58 goals conceded), with Mikael Silvestre and Sebastian Prodl accidents waiting to happen. At the other end of the pitch the departure of star string-puller Mesut Ozil to Real Madrid has left a gaping void - Werder have scored just 43 goals, compared to last season's tally of 71.
Werder are still not safe from the drop, with just four points between them and the bottom three. This puts extra pressure on a side that's won just five out of 16 home games.

RECOMMENDED BET: I'm dumbfounded by the big price on offer for a BVB victory, so take advantage and back Dortmund to win at [3.75]

Eintracht Frankfurt [2.1] vs FC Cologne [3.9], the draw [3.6]

Last week's 3-0 defeat at Mainz saw Eintracht slip to third from bottom, so securing a victory against fellow strugglers Cologne is now of paramount importance. Eintracht are yet to win in five games under new coach Christoph Daum, but they have been desperately unlucky not to pick up more points. They led 1-0 in matches against Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich, but conceded late levellers on both occasions.

Eintracht have become embroiled in the relegation scrap because at some stage over Christmas they forgot how to score goals. Since the winter break they have scored just six goals in fifteen games. Bearing that in mind it's lucky that Cologne are coming to town, because they've conceded more goals away from home than anyone else in the Bundesliga.

As we saw in last week's win over Bayer Leverkusen, Cologne can b
eat anyone in front of their own fans. The story is somewhat different on the road - the Billy Goats have lost their last three away games 4-1, 5-1 and 6-2. Cologne have the worst away record in the league, with just one win and three draws from 16 games.
RECOMMENDED BETS: Eintracht have improved since Daum took charge, and Cologne are abysmal away from home. Back Eintracht to win at [2.1]. In-play bettors should note that Eintracht haven't scored before half-time in any of their last five games, so you could wait for that [2.1] to lengthen.

Stuttgart [2.16] vs Hannover [3.7], the draw [3.65]

Hannover's shock loss at home to Borussia Monchengladbach saw them drop behind Bayern in the race for Champions League qualification, and I suspect their morale has taken a huge dip. The last thing they need is a trip to in-form Stuttgart, who have surged clear of the relegation dogfight with three straight wins.

The Swabians have lost just one of their last nine games, and the timely resurgence of striker Cacau (three goals in two games) has given them a cutting edge.

RECOMMENDED BET: Hannover have surprised everyone, but the Champions League dream dies here. Back Stuttgart to win at [2.16]

It's been a pretty tough last six or seven years for Borussia Dortmund, who in different circumstances may have gone into adminstration rather than winning this year's Bundesliga. Richard Aikman explains how they did it....

Why Michael Ballack had to apologise, how Cologne are far better at home than their league position suggests and the best bets ahead of another weekend of Bundesliga action....

Kevin Hatchard looks at the comings and goings in the Bundesliga this week and, of course, the best bets from this weekend's matches...

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Bundesliga Betting: Dortmund's title march could stutter

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 22 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is Robert Lewandowski and his Dortmund team-mates set for a slip-up?

"Dortmund are misfiring on the road, and the pressure of reaching the finish line in the title race could take its toll."

Kevin Hatchard looks at the comings and goings in the Bundesliga this week and, of course, the best bets from this weekend's matches

As has become the norm of late, this week's column begins with the Bundesliga's latest to-ing and fro-ing on the coaching front. As expected, St Pauli coach Holger Stanislawski has agreed to join Hoffenheim in the summer. Hoffe will be working with a lower budget than in recent seasons as owner Dietmar Hopp looks to cut costs, which sounds like a challenge that's right up Stanislawski's strasse.

Hamburg have given caretaker boss Michael Oenning a contract until the end of next season, which I find as mystifying as the appeal of The Only Way Is Essex.

HSV have won just one of their four games since Armin Veh was sacked, but Oenning's already talking about pushing for the title next season. Equally surprising was Frank Schafer's decision to reject Cologne's offer of a two-year deal. He'll return to coaching the reserves next term, despite lifting the club six points above the dropzone.

Borussia Monchengladbach [5.6] vs Borussia Dortmund [1.67], the draw [4.1]
Last weekend's action took leaders Dortmund to the brink of securing their first Bundesliga title since 2002. Closest challengers Bayer Leverkusen were taken apart 4-1 at Bayern Munich, and BVB went eight points clear by sweeping aside Freiburg 3-0. If Jurgen Klopp's effervescent Dortmund win Saturday's game at rock-bottom Monchengladbach, they'll be crowned champions should Bayer fail to beat Hoffenheim.
Dortmund have the best away record in the league, but lately they have struggled on their travels. A 3-1 win at Bayern Munich has been their only win in four road trips, a period in which they lost at Hoffenheim and needed a stoppage-time equaliser to snatch a draw at Hamburg.
There's no doubt that Monchengladbach look a better team under the stewardship of coach Lucien Favre, but the Foals are still seven points adrift of safety.
Their best chance of survival is attempting to finish third from bottom, and then trying to win the relegation playoff.
Since Favre took over from Michael Frontzeck, Monchengladbach have transformed their home form. They've won three of their last four home games, having not won in front of their own fans before Favre arrived.
Defensively Monchengladbach have tightened up. Under Frontzeck they shipped an eye-watering 56 goals in 22 games, but under Favre they've let in just eight goals in eight games.
Recommended Bets: Dortmund are misfiring on the road, and the pressure of reaching the finish line in the title race could take its toll. Monchengladbach are desperate for points and are much more resilient these days, so lay Dortmund at [1.67] and back under 2.5 goals at [2.5]

St Pauli [3.5] vs Werder Bremen [2.22], the draw [3.65]
Before Holger Stanislawski leaves for Hoffenheim, he must somehow pull his beloved St Pauli out of a tailspin which threatens to return them to Bundesliga Zwei after just one season. The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight matches, although last week they were desperately close to picking up what would have been a vital win at Wolfsburg. St Pauli were 2-1 up in the 89th minute, but they failed to pick up Jan Polak at a corner, and he headed in an equaliser.
The spectre of relegation has hung over Werder for much of what's been a troubling season, but a seven-match unbeaten run has taken them six points clear of the dropzone. Werder haven't kept a clean sheet since December 4, but they've shipped just eight goals in seven games.
Recommended Bets: Werder have drawn five of their last seven, including the last three. St Pauli are playing better than their recent run suggests, so back the draw at [3.65] and under 2.5 goals at [2.4]

Nurnberg [2.22] vs Mainz [3.55], the draw [3.55]
Sixth-placed Nurnberg are two points behind fifth-placed Mainz in the race for a Europa League spot, so this game is crucial. Both teams have been in patchy form - Nurnberg have won just one of their last four games, while Mainz have won just one in five.
Recommended Bet: At home Nurnberg have won nine, drawn one and lost five, an exact match with Mainz's record on the road making an away win attractively overpriced. Back Mainz to win at [3.55]

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Bundesliga Betting: Take on Bayern whilst their mind is elsewhere

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 11 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Louis van Gaal won't be at Bayern next season after his side suffered three consecutive defeats

"Bayern have lost their last two home games, and will have one eye on the forthcoming Champions League clash with Inter. Back Hamburg to nick a draw at 4.4."

Louis van Gaal won't be at Bayern next year buit he'll stay till the end of the season. With this news and a Champions League tie in midweek, they may struggle to get more than a point at home to Hamburg at the weekend, says Kevin Hatchard.

Kaiserslautern [2.24] vs Freiburg [3.55], the draw [3.55]

Momentum is a crucial thing to have at this stage of the season, and Kaiserslautern simply don't have it. Marco Kurz's strugglers haven't won since the winter break, and suffered an embarrassing defeat at second-division Duisburg in the German Cup quarter-finals.

A microcosm of Kaiserslautern's struggles is the decline of star striker Srdjan Lakic. The Croatian scored 11 goals in the first half of the campaign, but hasn't netted since. He was booed by his own fans at the last home game against Hamburg, and missed an absolute sitter in last week's stalemate at Eintracht Frakfurt. The announcement of his summer switch to Wolfsburg seems to have unsettled him, and he looks like he can't wait to leave.

Kaiserlautern are second-bottom, and haven't won a home game since late November. They've drawn six out of 12 at home, including four of the last five.

Eighth-placed Freiburg have defied their critics and stayed clear of the relegation dogfight, but their recent form has damaged their Europa League qualification bid. The men from the Black Forest have won just twice since Christmas, and have lost three of their last four.

Highly-rated coach Robin Dutt has tightened Freiburg's defence - last term they conceded 1.74 goals per game, this season the average is 1.36. In attack the Breisgau-Brasilianer are still too reliant on top scorer Papiss Demba Cisse. The Senegalese hitman has netted 17 of Freiburg's 32 league goals, and no-one else in the squad has managed more than four goals.

RECOMMENDED BETS: Kaiserslautern are struggling to turn draws into wins, and I expect that to continue on Saturday. Back the draw at [3.55]

Wolfsburg [2.24] vs Nurnberg [3.4], the draw [3.7]

Whether they like it or not, 2009 champions Wolfsburg are in a relegation battle. The Wolves have lost five of their last six league games, and their only win was against rock-bottom Borussia Monchengladbach.

Last week's 3-0 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen was expected, but the manner of it was alarming. The Wolves defended dreadfully, and out-of-form keeper Diego Benaglio went down like Steptoe for the first two goals.

Wolfsburg's record against Saturday's opponents Nurnberg is poor. Nurnberg have won three of their last four meetings, and Wolfsburg have only beaten them three times in 17 top-flight matches.

Nurnberg are sixth after winning five of their last six games. Last week they hammered St Pauli 5-0, with Christian Eigler scoring four goals. On-loan Bayern playmaker Mehmet Ekici has played a starring role, and the team will be further strengthened by the return from injury of midfielder Ilkay Gundogan.

RECOMMENDED BET: Nurnberg are playing superbly, and Wolfsburg are on a bad run. Back Nurnberg to win at [3.4]

Bayern Munich [1.57] vs Hamburg [6.8], the draw [4.4]

Football fashionistas take note - the caretaker manager is out, and the "delayed departure" is in. Bayern Munich reacted to three consecutive defeats by giving coach Louis van Gaal the push, but he'll stay on until the end of the season. Winning the Champions League is still a viable target for the Bavarians, but they'll have to play far better than they did in last week's 3-1 defeat at Hannover. Bayern defended appallingly and rookie keeper Thomas Kraft had a nightmare, allowing a Sergio Pinto drive to slip through his hands.

Bayern are fifth, five points outside the top three, and on Saturday they'll face a Hamburg side that will also change coaches in the summer. Armin Veh has experienced similar problems to those he had at Wolfsburg, failing to harness a talented but headstrong squad. Hamburg are seventh, five points adrift of European qualification, but Veh's departure is as much to do with the club's off-field problems. President Bernd Hoffman has been given a vote of no confidence, amidst rumours of infighting within HSV's board.

Hamburg's away form has been decent in recent weeks - they've won three of their last five road trips, and their only defeat in that period was at a Nurnberg side who are very strong at home.

RECOMMENDED BET: Bayern have lost their last two home games, and will have one eye on the forthcoming Champions League clash with Inter. Back Hamburg to nick a draw at [4.4]

Louis van Gaal won't be at Bayern next year buit he'll stay till the end of the season. With this news and a Champions League tie in midweek, they may struggle to get more than a point at home to...

Bayern are on a miserable run and their coach is under pressure, so can they overcome Hannover? Meanwhile, can Frankfurt score their first goal of 2011? Kevin Hatchard selects the best bets from the Bundesliga....

Jurgen Klopp wants to take the German champions-elect to the very top. But can he hold on to his talented youngsters? Ben Lyttleton reports....

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Bundesliga Betting: Will Bayern lose three in a row?

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 04 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Louis Van Gaal is under pressure to turn Bayern's fortunes around

"Back Bayern to win at a stingy [1.73], and with Hannover defending well back under 2.5 goals at [2.28]."

Bayern are on a miserable run and their coach is under pressure, so can they overcome Hannover? Meanwhile, can Frankfurt score their first goal of 2011? Kevin Hatchard selects the best bets from the Bundesliga.

Hannover [5.6] vs Bayern Munich [1.73], the draw [4.0]

This time last week Bayern Munich's Allianz Arena could justifiably have been described as a fortress. Bayern had won seven straight league games at their Bavarian home, and hadn't lost there since September. Two costly defeats later, the fortress lies in flaming ruins, with Borussia Dortmund and Schalke riding back to the Ruhr with the spoils.

Dortmund's 3-1 Bundesliga win at Bayern on Saturday came as a big surprise to many, including yours truly. I fully expected Bayern to continue their sparkling recent form, but they were outplayed and outfought by a side that will surely now claim the title. Bayern simply had no answer to a group of young, hungry players who dazzled them with superior skill and movement. Playmaker Nuri Sahin, midfield dynamo Mario Gotze and imperious defender Mats Hummels all showed why Bayern are so keen to sign them in the summer. BVB insist they are not for sale.

Bayern are an insurmountable 16 points behind the leaders, and another route to silverware was blocked off on Wednesday, as they lost their German Cup semi-final 1-0 to Schalke. Raul scored an early winner, and Bayern couldn't find a way past Germany's number one Manuel Neuer.

Coach Louis van Gaal is under pressure, and to save his job the redoubtable Dutchman must get results in this season's Champions League and ensure qualification for next season. To do the latter fourth-placed Bayern must finish in the top three, and they visit third-placed Hannover this Saturday.

Hannover have defied the experts by maintaining their excellent form this deep into the campaign. A team that avoided relegation in the final round of matches last term has been transformed by coach Mirko Slomka. Hannover's defending has been excellent since the winter break, with just four goals conceded in seven matches.

The big question mark hanging over Hannover going into this match is whether they can get results against the division's elite sides. They were hammered 4-0 at home by Dortmund, swept aside 3-0 at Bayern, and took just a point from two games against second-placed Bayer Leverkusen. Slomka says his players must start believing in themselves, but I think last season's struggles have left them with an inferiority complex against Germany's top sides.

Recommended bet: Bayern are too good to lose three games in a row, and man for man they are much better than Hannover. Back Bayern to win at a stingy [1.73], and with Hannover defending well back under 2.5 goals at [2.28].

Stuttgart [2.14] vs Schalke [3.65], the draw [3.65]

Despite last weekend's 2-0 win at goal-shy Frankfurt, second-bottom Stuttgart are in deep trouble, three points adrift of safety. The Swabians' home form is dreadful - they've lost four of their last six matches at the Mercedes-Benz Arena, conceding 12 goals. Saturday's clash with Schalke will be made even harder by the suspension of skipper Mathieu Delpierre, who was red-carded in Frankfurt.

You never really know what you're going to get with Schalke. Their cup win at Bayern was outstanding, but they were abject in their last Bundesliga away game - a 2-1 defeat at rock-bottom Monchengladbach. Schalke's away form has generally improved though - they recently drew 0-0 at Dortmund and won 1-0 at Champions League contenders Hannover.

Recommended bet: I'm not convinced that Stuttgart's win at Frankfurt wasn't a flash in the pan, and Schalke are on a high after reaching the DFB Pokal final. Back Schalke to win at a generous [3.65]

Eintracht Frankfurt [2.42] vs Kaiserslautern [3.3], the draw [3.45]

It must suck to be an Eintracht Frankfurt fan at the moment. In seven games since Christmas, Michael Skibbe's men have scored...no goals. Not one. Zero. Zilch. Nada. This offensive drought has dragged Die Adler into the relegation dogfight, and they're just three points above the dropzone.

Kaiserslautern are third from bottom, and have lost their last three away games.
They have however picked up encouraging recent draws against Dortmund and Hamburg, and this season they've won at Cologne, Nurnberg and Werder Bremen.

Recommended bet: Frankfurt are in a tailspin, and I think Kaiserslautern are better than recent away form suggests. Back the draw at [3.45], and under 2.5 goals at [1.85]

Bayern are on a miserable run and their coach is under pressure, so can they overcome Hannover? Meanwhile, can Frankfurt score their first goal of 2011? Kevin Hatchard selects the best bets from the Bundesliga....

Jurgen Klopp wants to take the German champions-elect to the very top. But can he hold on to his talented youngsters? Ben Lyttleton reports....

It's Bayern Munich versus league leaders Borsussia Dortmund this weekend in a match which may well have a huge say in where the title goes this year. Kevin Hatchard discusses this match and the other best bets......

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Bundesliga Betting: Huge clash...which Bayern should win

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 25 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Big guns. Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery and Sebastian Schweinsteiger are the hereatbeat of this team

"Barring their late collapse in Cologne, Bayern have sparkled since the winter break, and Robben, Ribery and Gomez are all on top form."

It's Bayern Munich versus league leaders Borsussia Dortmund this weekend in a match which may well have a huge say in where the title goes this year. Kevin Hatchard discusses this match and the other best bets...

Bayern Munich [1.88] vs Borussia Dortmund [4.4], the draw [3.9]

Of the 11 games leaders Borussia Dortmund still have to play this season, this is undoubtedly the toughest. Bayern are third, 13 points behind BVB, and will come out all guns blazing at the Allianz Arena in a game they have to win.

Bayern's recent home form has been exceptional. The Bavarians have won their last seven home matches, scoring 26 goals and conceding just four in the process. Louis van Gaal's men go into Saturday's match full of confidence after a superb 1-0 win at Inter in the Champions League. Bayern were deserved victors, with terrifying twosome Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery in electrifying form. Mario Gomez's winner was his 27th goal of the season, not bad when you consider he's made just 31 appearances.

The return to fitness of Robben and the return to form of Ribery has given Bayern a huge boost. Bayern swarmed all over Mainz in last week's 3-1 victory, and could have racked up five or six goals in a scintillating display. At the other end rookie goalkeeper Thomas Kraft has adapted superbly to the pressures of playing for one of Europe's top clubs - van Gaal's decision to throw Kraft in at the deep end is looking inspired.

After draws against Kaiserslautern and Schalke, Dortmund returned to winning ways last week by beating St Pauli 2-0. Young German internationals Mario Gotze and Kevin Grosskreutz buzzed around impressively, but as a team Dortmund are still missing too many chances. Jurgen Klopp's men can take heart from a superb away record, with ten wins from 12 games.

When these two sides met at the Westfalen in October, Dortmund ran out 2-0 winners. The scoreline was somewhat misleading - Bayern dominated the first half, with an off-colour Mario Gomez wasting the kind of chances he now gleefully snaps up.

RECOMMENDED BETS: Barring their late collapse in Cologne, Bayern have sparkled since the winter break, and Robben, Ribery and Gomez are all on top form. If Dortmund keeper and captain Roman Weidenfeller fails a fitness test on a knee injury, the visitors will have an even tougher job on their hands. Back Bayern to win at [1.88], although in a tight game In-Play bettors may be tempted to wait until half-time for that price to improve. Both sides are defending well, so backing under 2.5 goals at [2.24] looks sensible.

Werder Bremen [3.2] vs Bayer Leverkusen [2.34], the draw [3.6]

If Dortmund lose, second-placed Bayer could cut their lead to just seven points with victory at struggling Werder on Sunday. The defensive weaknesses which have plagued Thomas Schaaf's Bremen all season were on show yet again in last week's 4-0 derby defeat at Hamburg. Chronic underperformers Sebastian Prodl and Mikael Silvestre put in another somnambulant display, and appear to be dragging German international Per Metesacker down to their level. Werder have now shipped 48 goals - only rock-bottom Monchengladbach have conceded more.

Werder are just a point above the dropzone, and I expect Bayer to make things worse for them. Bayer lost to title rivals Dortmund in their first game after the winter break, but they've since won four out of five. The return of striker Stefan Kiessling from long-term injury is a massive plus, and he scored twice in last week's 4-2 win over Stuttgart.

RECOMMENDED BET: Bayer have collected 26 points from 33 available on the road, and they should sweep aside a Werder team that simply can't defend. Back Bayer to win at [2.34]

Wolfsburg [2.02] vs Borussia Monchengladbach [4.2], the draw [3.65]

As I suspected, Wolfsburg coach Pierre Littbarski hasn't had the instant impact the Wolves were expecting after they jettisoned Steve McClaren. Littbarski's overseen two defeats, and only goal difference is keeping the club out of the dropzone.
New Borussia boss Lucien Favre did have an instant impact, masterminding a 2-1 win over Schalke, the Foals' first home victory. Borussia have picked up most of their points on the road, winning four out of 11.

RECOMMENDED BET: Wolfsburg are a shambles, and rejuvenated Borussia will see Friday's game as a great chance to get off the bottom. Back Borussia to win at [4.2]

It's Bayern Munich versus league leaders Borsussia Dortmund this weekend in a match which may well have a huge say in where the title goes this year. Kevin Hatchard discusses this match and the other best bets......

Borussia Dortmund versus St Pauli, Mainz versus Bayern Munich and Inter Milan versus Cagliari are among the games that Betfair customers are able to enjoy this weekend courtesy of Betfair Live Video.

Borussia Dortmund manager Jurgen Klopp is concerned that his side have look nervous in recent weeks but can they get their title campaign back on track this weekend? Kevin Hatchard selects the weekend's best Bundesliga bets....

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Bundesliga Betting: Can Dortmund overcome self-doubt?

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 17 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jurgen Klopp must rally his team for the visit of St Pauli

"I fancy St Pauli to score, especially with Dortmund defender Neven Subotic suspended, so back both teams to score at [2.06]."

Jurgen Klopp is concerned that his side have look nervous in recent weeks but can they get their title campaign back on track this weekend? Kevin Hatchard selects the weekend's best Bundesliga bets.

Borussia Dortmund [1.32] v St Pauli [13], the draw [5.7]

Borussia Dortmund lead the Bundesliga by a healthy 10 points, but the creeping mistress that is doubt is starting to whisper seductively into the ears of his players. BVB have drawn their last two matches, and have dropped six points since the winter break. Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich are keeping the pressure on, and are beginning to scent blood.

BVB conceded a 90th-minute equaliser in last week's 1-1 draw at struggling Kaiserslautern, and missed a host of chances in their goalless stalemate with derby rivals Schalke the week before. The concern for coach Klopp will be that a side that usually expresses itself with verve and freedom is starting to look nervous, especially when protecting a narrow lead. Perhaps this is to be expected with a squad comprised of so many young and relatively inexperienced players.

The last thing Dortmund need is Saturday's visit of St Pauli, who are brimming with confidence. On Wednesday night they performed the quintessential smash-and-grab raid at local rivals Hamburg, winning 1-0 thanks to a goal from Gerald Asamoah. The Pirates were outplayed for large chunks of the match, but battened down the hatches to scrape a vital win. St Pauli have won their last three matches, and are unbeaten since Christmas.

Holger Stanislawski's battlers are now five points above the dropzone, and their improvement can largely be attributed to a sudden goalscoring explosion. St Pauli went into the mid-season breather with one of the league's most ineffective forward lines, having scored just 16 goals in 17 games. Since then they've suddenly found their shooting boots, racking up 11 goals in just five games. Midweek match-winner Asamoah has scored in four of those matches.

Recommended bet: I fancy St Pauli to score in this one, especially with Dortmund defender Neven Subotic suspended, so back both teams to score at [2.06]. Given the recent form of both sides, I think [1.32] is too short for a home win, so lay Dortmund at [1.33]

Borussia Monchengladbach [3.7] v Schalke [2.16], the draw [3.6]

Rock-bottom Monchengladbach finally lost patience with coach Michael Frontzeck, and sacked him just over half a season into a two-year contract. The former Manchester City defender left Borussia Park with the Foals propping up the table and a daunting seven points adrift of safety. Frontzeck had already seen Aachen and Bielefeld relegated on his watch, and Borussia weren't about to let him complete an unwanted hat-trick.

The new man in charge is Lucien Favre, who's been itching (not literally) to get back into management since his departure from Hertha Berlin last season. Favre is a former coach of the year but takes over a side who haven't won a home game this season.

Schalke are in town on Sunday, and will be buoyant after a creditable 1-1 Champions League draw at Valencia in midweek. Since losing 5-0 at Kaiserslautern in November, Schalke have improved on the road, winning 1-0 at Mainz and Hannover (both top-four sides at the time) and drawing 0-0 at leaders Dortmund.

Recommended bet: Favre or no Favre, Borussia are still dreadful, and Schalke have toughened up. Back Schalke to win at [2.16]

Hannover [2.18] v Kaiserslautern [3.85], the draw [3.5]

The Champions League qualification dream is still alive for fourth-placed Hannover, who are just a point outside the top three. Mirko Slomka's side has been inconsistent since the winter break, beating Frankfurt and Wolfsburg but losing to Bayer Leverkusen and Schalke. Hannover's home form remains a cause for comfort, with seven wins from 11 matches.

Kaiserslautern have slipped into the bottom three thanks to a rapid post-Christmas decline. Last season's Bundesliga Zwei champions have collected just two points from their last five games, although they did hold leaders Borussia Dortmund to a 1-1 draw last week. Coach Marco Kurz must find a way to pick up points away from home - his side have lost eight of 11 road games.

Recommended bet: Hannover are hot at home, Kaiserslautern are cold away. Back Hannover to win at [2.18]. In-Play bettors should note Hannover have opened the scoring in eight of 11 home games, and are unbeaten in all eight games.

Jurgen Klopp is concerned that his side have look nervous in recent weeks but can they get their title campaign back on track this weekend? Kevin Hatchard selects the weekend's best Bundesliga bets....

Steve McClaren left Wolsburg this week amid talk of mutiny in the camp, not to mention poor results. The Wolves have a tricky match against Hamburg first up whereas elsewhere Cologne should grab another three points....

Kevin Hatchard is on some run of form with 11 winning bets from his last 19 recommendations showing a 31 point profit (before commission). He may be a good guy to carry on following this week......

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Bundesliga Betting: Life post-McClaren to start poorly for Wolfsburg

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 11 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Insubordination. Wolfsburg's Diego slams his penalty against the crossbar after being told not to take it.

"McClaren was left to furiously reflect on the latest insult delivered by a squad he’d lost control of. Like a supply teacher desperately imploring unruly children to behave, McClaren failed to win the respect and the loyalty of a notoriously mutinous set of players."

Steve McClaren left Wolsburg this week amid talk of mutiny in the camp, not to mention poor results. The Wolves have a tricky match against Hamburg first up whereas elsewhere Cologne should grab another three points.

Wolfsburg [2.62] vs Hamburg [2.94], the draw [3.5]

After winning just five of his 21 Bundesliga games in charge of Wolfsburg, Steve McClaren was finally put out of his misery this week, as he was sacked by exasperated chief executive Dieter Hoeness. Former England boss McClaren can hardly complain, with the Wolves just a point above the relegation zone.

Saturday's pitiful 1-0 defeat at local rivals Hannover proved to be the final straw. Not only was the team performance abject, but the game also showcased the poor attitude of individual players towards their coach. Wolfsburg won a penalty at 1-0 down, and McClaren had previously ordered that new signing Patrick Helmes should take any spot-kicks that were awarded. Instead, enigmatic Brazilian Diego grabbed the ball, and promptly smacked it against the crossbar.

McClaren was left to furiously reflect on the latest insult delivered by a squad he'd lost control of. Like a supply teacher desperately imploring unruly children to behave, McClaren failed to win the respect and the loyalty of a notoriously mutinous set of players. One could argue his experience of the England set-up was similar.

Curiously, Wolfsburg have placed McClaren's assistant Pierre Littbarski in charge until the end of the season. Littbarski has somehow managed to distance himself from McClaren, and convince Hoeness he can save the 2009 champions from the drop. Hoeness has tried to help by reprimanding the squad, and banning Diego for one match.
That match is Saturday's home clash with Hamburg, who are finding life much more serene. Ironically Hamburg are coached by Armin Veh, who was sacked by Wolfsburg last season after experiencing similar problems to McClaren.

Hamburg are eighth, seven points off a Champions League place. They've won three of the last four matches, including an eye-catching 1-0 victory at Schalke. HSV seem to finally be addressing their poor away form, with wins in two of their last three road games. It's worth considering Hamburg will be fresh after last week's derby against St Pauli was postponed.

RECOMMENDED BETS: Wolfsburg are a mess, and I'm not convinced Littbarski can make a difference. Back Hamburg to win at [2.94]. Three of Wolfsburg's last four games have been under 2.5 goals, as have Hamburg's last three. Back under 2.5 goals at [2.02]

Cologne [2.52] vs Mainz [3.05], the draw [3.5]

Last weekend these sides experienced the extremes of emotion that football can produce. Cologne came back from 2-0 down to beat Bayern Munich 3-2, while Mainz dominated Werder Bremen but conceded from the last kick of the game to draw 1-1.
Cologne's revival against the Bavarians was truly extraordinary. Bayern dominated the first half, and would have been three or four up but for some excellent last-ditch defending from centre-back Geromel. Coach Frank Schafer must have said something inspirational at the break, as the team were transformed. Two-goal hero Mile Novakovic was particularly impressive - if only he could play so well every week.

Cologne are only in the bottom three on goal difference, and have now won five of their ten home matches, including the last three. Keeper Michael Rensing appears to be a good addition, while Lukas Podolski is showing glimpses of his best form.

Mainz are third, which is a miracle considering they've won just five of their last 14 matches. In those games Mainz have suffered eight defeats, and have scored more than one goal on just three occasions.

RECOMMENDED BET: Cologne have finally learned to perform in front of their own fans, and Mainz are wobbling badly. Back Cologne to win at [2.52]

Eintracht Frankfurt [3.85] vs Bayer Leverkusen [2.12], the draw [3.6]

With leaders Borussia Dortmund dropping points last week, second-placed Bayer chose an inopportune time to produce one of their worst displays of the season. Jupp Heynckes' side were toothless in their 1-0 loss at Nurnberg, their first away defeat.
Speaking of toothless teams, mid-table Eintracht haven't scored in any of their four matches since the winter break, and they've lost their last two home games.

RECOMMENDED BETS: Bayer can't be as bad as they were last week, and Frankfurt are in cow's arse/banjo territory. Back Bayer to win at [2.12], and back under 2.5 goals at [2.0]

Steve McClaren left Wolsburg this week amid talk of mutiny in the camp, not to mention poor results. The Wolves have a tricky match against Hamburg first up whereas elsewhere Cologne should grab another three points....

Kevin Hatchard is on some run of form with 11 winning bets from his last 19 recommendations showing a 31 point profit (before commission). He may be a good guy to carry on following this week......

The return to fitness of Arjen Robben may well prove to be the most significant factor in this year's title race and an inspired performance from the fleet-footed Dutchman this weekend may help Louis Van Gaal's team reduce the deficit...

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