The Punter's In-Play Blog: Hadley too big at a three-figure price

"Jason Day won the WGC Matchplay back in February but only one player currently inside the top-ten at TPC Boston has won a stroke play event this year – Chesson Hadley. The PGA Tour rookie won the Puerto Rico Open in March and he looks slightly over-priced to me at 110.0109/1."

Steve details his lay book at the halfway stage in Italy and takes a quick look at the state of play after day one of the Deutsche Bank Championship. Read his latest in-running thoughts here...

11:20- August 30, 2014

As I suspected he might, Francesco Molinari put in a lacklustre second round at the Open D'Italia yesterday and since I'd layed him after round one, I'd given myself a great cornerstone to build a nice lay book from but I wish I'd left things alone until this morning...

In addition to my lay of Molly, I layed both Hennie Otto and Bernd Wiesberger as they flew through the field yesterday morning in round two but both kept moving forward and with the benefit of hindsight, I'd have been much better off if I'd have waited until the close of play as both now trade much shorter than I layed them at. 

As Otto now leads the Austrian by three and the rest of the field by six, it's going to be a day of crossing fingers and hoping that the pair come back to the field but I'm not hopeful. The third round is underway and it's live at midday in the UK on Sky Sports.

Over at the Deutsche Bank Championship, Ryan Palmer shot an impressive eight-under-par 63 to take up the early running and it's the second time in three starts that he's led after round one. He was tied at the top at the USPGA Championship before going on to finish fifth.

Keegan Bradley is two back in second and Jason Day, Webb Simpson and Chesson Hadley are all three off the lead on -5. Having barely gotten involved before the off and given up with the pace is the way to go here, I was quite keen to find a nice wager this morning but nothing really grabs me.

Only two of the 11 winners to date have been any further than four off the lead after the first round so the stats suggest we should be concentrating hard on the top-ten (in addition to the top-five already mentioned, five men are tied for sixth on -4) but I've struggled to get excited about any of them.

Jason Day is the narrow favourite over Rory McIlroy, who trails be seven and has it all to do, but I'm not keen on the Aussie. He's had plenty of chances to add to his tally of one stroke play PGA Tour title but always seems to find a way to get beat. 

Bradley has been disappointing in-contention of late and makes little appeal at just 8.88/1. Ryan Palmer will in all likelihood hang around all week, as he did at Valhalla, and is a reasonable price at 11.010/1 but I'm going to have just one small wager today and take another look at halfway.

Jason Day won the WGC Matchplay back in February but only one player currently inside the top-ten at TPC Boston has won a stroke play event this year - Chesson Hadley. The PGA Tour rookie won the Puerto Rico Open in March and he looks slightly over-priced to me at 110.0109/1.

22:15 - August 28, 2014

With the Deutsche Bank Championship (previewed here) not starting until Friday, I hadn't envisaged kicking off the In-Play Blog until tomorrow afternoon but given I've already got involved in-running at the Open D'Italia, I thought I'd make a start.

My sole selection, David Horsey, made an inauspicious start, shooting a one-under par 71 this morning but even though he's five off the lead and tied for 43rd, he's not completely out of it. There's an awfully long way to go and that's one of the reasons I've taken on joint-leader and clear favourite, Francesco Molinari, at just 3.8514/5.

There are plenty of quality players hot on Molly's heels and Bernd Wiesberger, sitting alongside the home favourite is a big danger for starters. I appreciate that they haven't had too many representatives over the years but with just one Italian winner in 33 years, taking the title for a second time isn't going to be an easy task for the 2006 champion.

Molinari tends to get nervous in-the-mix and I'll be surprised if he isn't trading bigger by this time tomorrow. I'd be shocked if he was to take the event by the scruff and kick on and laying him looks sensible. As detailed in the In-Pay section of the preview, laying the leaders on Sunday might make sense anyway so getting stuck in early and starting a lay book with Molly looks the right thing to do.

Ideally, Molinari will stutter in the morning and someone else will trade short and I can really start to build a nice book but if the worst case scenario occurs and Molinari bolts up, at just 3.8514/5, it won't be the end of the world if I don't get to lay anyone else and I finish up paying out.

Open D'Italia Pre-Event Selection:
David Horsey @ 80.079/1

In-Play Lays
Francesco Molinari @ 3.8514/5
Hennie Otto @ an average of 4.57/2
Bernd Wiesberger @ an average of 4.84/1

Deutsche Bank Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Stuart Appleby @ 230.0229/1

Deutsche Bank Championship Each-Way Selection:
Scott Stallings @ 500/1 (details here)

In-Play Bet
Chesson Hadley @ 110.0109/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Amazon Watches Center

Lee Dixon: United a huge price to win the battle of Manchester

"There's no reason to think that the Sir Alex will not field his best XI, and massively motivated for a fixture with nothing but pride at stake."

Back United to win @ 2.3411/8

United are running away with the league but are they really going to field a weakened side and roll over with City in town? No way, says Lee Dixon!

It's not often you get the chance to back Manchester United at odds-against playing at home this season and on price alone I feel duty bound to make them a recommended bet for this Monday night special.

Yes, City are their nearest opponents in the league and, yes, this is a derby match.
But records don't get much stronger than United's at Old Trafford with 14 wins from 15 games and I don't buy the argument that City will win because they are the more motivated side.

Had Sir Alex Ferguson's team won in the FA Cup at Chelsea on Easter Monday, they could possibly have been excused a reserved performance from a weaker than expected lineup with Fergie looking to safeguard his best players for a potential double.

They didn't though, and there's no reason to think that the Sir Alex will not field his best XI, and massively motivated for a fixture with nothing but pride at stake.

Successful betting is built on taking value prices and, at 2.3411/8 to win, United are just that.

Old Trafford has been criticised for lacking atmosphere in recent times but there will be no lack of passion from a full house on Monday night. The capacity crowd and those watching at home will be expecting a cracking game from two of the most talented attacks in English football, but I feel it will be defences to the fore. The Opta stats back that up: City have kept the most clean sheets in the league this year (14) and United are next on the list with 11. David de Gea has not had to pick the ball out of his net in the last six league games. 

With those stats on board I'm happy to take a chance on under 2.5 goals at odds-against. There have been plenty of goals in this game, but the equivalent fixture around this time last year finished 1-0 to City. Bold punters might take a chance on either team winning by a goal to nil at 10.09/1 for United and 13.012/1 for City. 

Vincent Kompany scored the winner that night at the Etihad and his return is big for City. He scored against Newcastle as City romped to a 4-0 win and just having the captain back - both on the pitch and in the dressing room - will be huge. That just makes a tight game more likely and I don't think his return will be enough to steer City to victory. Robin van Persie may have gone cold - not that I find that of any great concern - and I just fancy United to hold sway over their Noisy Neighbours by the odd goal.

Recommended Bets 

Back United to win @ 2.3411/8
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.166/5

"Manchester United will want to make a statement here - the 6-1 defeat in this fixture last season will still hurt, and against a City still with relatively little to play for, United should record a victory. However, the lack of quality from United's attackers in recent weeks means a big win is unlikely, and I agree with Lee on the lack of goals. With six league clean sheets in a row for United, I'll happily back another at 3.7."

"Let’s face it, all that is really up for grabs in this one are the bragging rights, United have won the league and I am sure City will be second. I also think that Man City will have one eye on the upcoming Chelsea FA Cup semi final. I was shocked to see United @ 2.32 and I agree with Lee, this is great value for a team that has won its last seven in a row scoring 13 and conceding only once. Add to that Man Utd’s incredible home form, the last time they failed to score in a Premier League home game was against Aston Villa on 12/12/09. They have managed to score in each of the 61 league games at Old Trafford since that Villa defeat and have lost only four times, drawing three. Only word of caution is that United have NEVER completed a Premier League season without drawing at least one game on home soil.

"I will be backing the red side of Manchester to take the bragging rights @ 2.32 in the match odds with a little cheap insurance on the 1-1 @ 7.8 as a saver."

There are no comments on this article.

Product reviews and advice for best reference

Torneo Final Tip Sheet: Godoy can snare a road win at a phenomenal price

"Their game with San Martín is a bit of a derby game with these sides the two biggest club in the west of Argentina, but San Martín - who haven't won in 16 games - will need more than the atmosphere boost of a rivalry to play at Godoy Cruz's standard, and we're backing the visitors at the phenomenal price of 2.89/5."

Ed Malyon previews this weekend's action in Argentina, and believes title-chasing Godoy Cruz are a phenomenal price to get the better of San Martín de San Juan...

Saturday
Argentinos Juniors v All Boys - 17:00
Ricardo Caruso Lombardi's hiring as a 'firefighter' usually signals an improvement in teams, and after he saved San Lorenzo last season he has been charged with doing the same for rock-bottom Argentinos. They couldn't be much worse, and as a good motivator we expect the notorious vendehumo to improve them but not so quickly that they would be 2.47/5 favourites for this weekend's game with All Boys. 

A fairly solid lay at that price, with the visitors a real tough nut to crack.

Recommended Bet
Lay Argentinos at 2.56/4

River Plate v Vélez Sarsfield - 21:10
Check out our big match preview for a look at this weekend's humdinger at el Monumental.

Sunday
Independiente v Boca Juniors - 18:15
Boca rarely have such an early kick-off, so you know it's a derby game when their fixtures are brought forward like this.

Independiente's Avellaneda home is only a few miles south of La Bombonera, and these two near(ish) neighbours both proudly claim to be the most successful clubs in Argentina with Boca boasting a world record 18 international titles and el Rojo a record seven Copa Libertadores wins.

The last year has been poor for the two of them though, and while Independiente fight against relegation, Boca have struggled to impress under new (old) boss Carlos Bianchi. After such success with the club in the middle of the last decade, the fans have been somewhat dumbstruck when the return of the viceroy and talisman Juan Román Riquelme turned out to be a fairly unhappy one.

Winless in five league games and with their Copa Libertadores campaign still very much in the balance, most other managers arriving at Boca would be under some serious pressure, but a defeat to rivals Independiente would begin to make things even more awkward and at current there's little sign of things turning round. 

In what will likely be a tense and heated clásico - any game between two of Argentina's big five is labelled thus - a result seems impossible to pick, and instead we are better served looking at the goals markets.

A big problem for the Xeneize has been their defence, which has lacked leadership since Rolando Schiavi left the club. New arrival Chiqui Perez has tried, withMatías Caruzzo, to adapt to the high defensive line favoured by Bianchi but it's been a disaster, and Caruzzo's fondness for giving away penalties has been costly. 

This should be feisty, error-strewn and accompanied by a great atmosphere, so we fancy both teams to score as our bet for this one.

Recommended Bet
Both teams to score at 2.1211/10

San Martín de San Juan v Godoy Cruz - 20:10
They've had an easy start to the season but you can only beat what's put in front of you and Martín Palermo's Godoy Cruz are in the title mix as things stand. 

Their game with San Martín is a bit of a derby game with these sides the two biggest club in the west of Argentina, but San Martín - who haven't won in 16 games - will need more than the atmosphere boost of a rivalry to play at Godoy Cruz's standard, and we're backing the visitors at the phenomenal price of 2.89/5. 

How the hosts are favourites for this is an absolute mystery. 

Recommended bet: Back Godoy Cruz 0 on Asian Handicap at 1.9310/11

San Lorenzo v Newell's Old Boys - 22:10
This game should be a corker, with both clubs playing some great football under progressive coaches - but don't expect many goals.

San Lore have the best defence in the league, with just two goals conceded all season, while Newell's only saw 11 get through them in the whole of last season. 

With the added burden of Copa Libertadores football Gerardo Martino has not been able to keep his defence as tight, but they are still a very strong side who thrive on possession and boast the best player in the country in Ignacio Scocco

We'd back the unders if it weren't such a short price, so it may be better to just watch this one for the spectacle - no bet.

There are no comments on this article.

Product reviews and advice for best reference

World Matchplay Darts Betting: The Power can light up Blackpool at a big price

"Wes Newton is now a firmly established top eight player and has recently moved above Simon Whitlock and Raymond van Barneveld to number five in the rankings."

Back Wes Newton to win @ 36.035/1

Phil Taylor is aiming for a record-equalling fifth successive World Matchplay title at the Betfair-sponsored event. Jaymes Monte assesses the betting ahead of the Blackpool action...

The Obvious Choice
It doesn't take a darts aficionado to pick Phil Taylor out as a potential winner of the World Matchplay. The Power has 11 Matchplay trophies in his cabinet and has won the last four in succession.

Those bare statistics alone suggest that the 2.71/1 available on Taylor winning the 2012 World Matchplay are fairly generous. And the draw handed to the world number one backs up that idea.

Taylor can be vulnerable in the early stages of tournaments, but an opening round match against old foe Mervyn King will only serve to focus his attentions. Should he beat King then Vincent van der Voort or Ian White would not be expected to pose much of a threat in the second round while the same could be said for potential quarter-final opponents Andy Hamilton, Brendan Dolan, Mark Webster and Colin Lloyd.

Gary Anderson is the next highest seed in the top half of the draw but the Scot hasn't played competitive darts for over a month due to an eye problem, and so his form is something of a mystery.

Come next Sunday evening that 2.71/1 on Taylor could look like a gift from the darting gods.

One to Trade
The best options for trading in the outright winner markets of a darts tournament usually come from players in the opposite half of the draw to Taylor. However, this week, the bottom half of the draw is a potential minefield and so I am plumping for an in-form player in The Power's half but in the opposite quarter.

Wes Newton is now a firmly established top-eight player and has recently moved above Simon Whitlock and Raymond van Barneveld to number five in the rankings.

Young James Hubbard will provide a stern examination in the opening round, but The Warrior's experience on the main stage should see him progress with some comfort. Justin Pipe or Joe Cullen await in the second round, and Newton would go into a match against either as a deserved short-price favourite. Then, given Anderson's injury problems, Dave Chisnall is probably the most likely quarter-final opponent.

Although Chizzy has had a fantastic year, Newton has a considerable 6-1 head-to-head advantage over the St Helens flinger, and would again go into the match as strong favourite. Taylor is a potential semi-final opponent but by that point Newton will be trading considerably lower than the 36.035/1 that is currently available and we can bag a tidy profit.

An Outsider to Keep Onside
As mentioned above, the bottom half of the draw is a real minefield. But it does offer up a couple of bigger priced options as a result.

Richie Burnett showed that he can still mix it with the best by reaching the semi-finals of last season's World Grand Prix and subsequently beating Mark Webster at the World Championships. He then teamed up with Webster to guide Wales to the semis of the PDC World Cup of Darts, before a rather inconspicuous UK Open.

The Prince of Wales appeared to have slipped back into the 'also-ran' status that he had become accustomed with, before bursting back to life in Dusseldorf a fortnight ago. There he beat Andy Jenkins 6-2 in the opening round with an astonishing 121 average before defeating Scott Rand, Michael van Gerwen and James Hubbard to reach the semi-finals. The 1995 Lakeside Champion couldn't go all the way as Raymond van Barneveld beat him in the semis, but he did enough to warrant backing him this week, for small stakes at 140.0139/1.

The action kicks off this Saturday evening with the final taking place the following Sunday. I'll be here all week with daily previews of individual matches so be sure to check these pages before placing your individual match bets.

Recommended Bets:
5 points - Back Phil Taylor to win @ 2.71/1
3 points - Back Wes Newton to win @ 36.035/1
1 point - Back Richie Burnett to win @ 140.0139/1

There are no comments on this article.

Amazon Watches Center

Michael Vaughan: Sri Lanka's First Test price is too big

Test previews / Michael Vaughan / 23 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Been there and done it. Mahela Jayawardene has been doing the business at the highest level for a decade and a half.

"Kumar Sangakarra and Mahela Jayawardene are as good as anyone in the game and have been for the last decade and a half. Other players in this Sri Lankan team have come and gone over that period but those two have been a constant presence in the side, piling on the runs against all-comers."

England can survive without Ravi Bopara as a bowler but they'll have their hands full trying to contain the devastating duo of Kumar Sangakarra and Mahela Jayawardene. Sri Lanka are unlikely to win but they offer a fine trading opportunity, says Michael Vaughan.

I'm not entirely sure what all this hysteria is about regarding Ravi Bopara's injury which will prevent him from bowling. Sure, he may have come in and bowled few overs to give the others a rest in draining conditions. He may even have grabbed a wicket with his medium-pacers. But that's a far cry from suggesting the Essex man is an integral part of this England bowling attack. He's a number six who bowls a bit; not the next Andrew Flintoff!

England's strategy of picking four front-line bowlers has served them well and in the heat and humidity of Sri Lanka they'll need every last one of them. I can't see that there was ever any suggestion at all of Bopara being a much-used fifth bowler. Especially when we consider that, at number seven, England have a guy in Matt Prior who averages 44 in Test cricket. Jonathan Trott can always come in and bowl a few overs if necessary, anyway. As for Samit Patel, he will have to wait for his chance to make his Test debut, which as far as he's concerned, may not be a bad thing anyway.

The rest of the team picks itself: Strauss, Cook, Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Bopara, Prior, Broad, Swann, Anderson, Panesar. The only doubt would be Panesar, if England look at the wicket and decide there's more there for the seamers rather than the spinners but this is a Sri Lankan track we're talking about so that's highly unlikely.

Sri Lanka's bowling line-up isn't that great and I've said that already but their batting is strong. They failed against the swinging ball over in England last summer but that won't have come as a surprise to many because those are conditions that all sub-Continental batsmen struggle in. India were no different.

Tillekeratne Dilshan is one of the most destructive batsmen in the world, Upal Tharanga is an experienced campaigner, Dinesh Chandimal looks a real talent and both Prasanna Jaywardene and Thilan Samaraweera can occupy the crease for long periods. Then there are the two monsters. Kumar Sangakarra and Mahela Jayawardene are as good as anyone in the game and have been for the last decade and a half. Other players in this Sri Lankan team have come and gone over that period but those two have been a constant presence in the side, piling on the runs against all-comers. I almost can't remember the last time that either of them didn't score a century in a Test match. And then the following match the other one comes in and gets a ton!

With Swann being a more dangerous threat to the left-handers - and therefore Sangakarra - I'm going to side with the skipper here for first innings honours and Jayawardene is the call for top bat at around [4.5].

This should be a bat first wicket. Post a big score, keep the opposition in the field for a long as possible and try to drain as much energy out of them as you can. I've said already that I fancy England to edge the series 1-0 but Sri Lanka look a bit over-priced to win the first Test at [3.5]. If they bat first they can post a big score and if they bowl first it's not inconceivable that they can take a couple of early wickets whilst the England batters take some time to get accustomed to a pitch that will be very different to anything they've played on in recent times. I don't think they'll win but their price should come in at some point so they're a good back-to-lay at the current odds.

2 pts Back-to-lay Sri Lanka @ [3.5]
1 pt Back Mahela Jayawardene to be first innings top scorer @ [4.5]

England have a great chance to make up for their failures in the UAE against Pakistan by prevailing in one of the toughests tests cricket has to offer - winning in Sri Lanka. But they have the bowlers to do...

Ed Hawkins, the SJA Betting Writer of the Year for the second year in a row, previews the start of the two-Test series...

Vernon Philander is on course to become the fastest bowler to 50 wickets in Test history and the way he'sbeen playing, that looks to be on the cards. As far as the match itself goes, New Zealand look a tad...

Amazon Watches Center

Bundesliga Betting: Do Bayern Munich offer any value at their current price?

German Football / Matthew Walton / 25 January 2012 / 1 Comments

Robert Lewandowki's goals can keep Dortmund in the title race

"If you want to back Bayern at a short price, fine, but you might have a job convincing this sceptic that the former champions are good value to regain their crown."

Bayern Munich are involved in a four-way tussle for the Bundesliga title but are still the overwhelming favourites at 1.66. What does recent history tell us about that price, asks Matthew Walton.

For backers of Bayern Munich at prices as low as [1.14]... these are worrying times.

In the midst of 'Oscar season' all isn't going quite so well for FC Hollywood.

And for Jupp Heynckes's star-studded team, who have previously swept the board with 22 domestic championships, the route to No.23 is proving no stroll up the red carpet.

Bayern's return to the Bundesliga after Germany's mid-season break was welcomed with a 3-1 loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach and that result, along with some worrying pre-Christmas form has made the title race exactly that... a race!

Bayern P18 (W12 D1 L5) are now joint leaders of three on 37 points along with Borussia Dortmund (W11 D4 L3) and Schalke 04 (W12 D1 L5). The resurgent Mönchengladbach (W11 D3 L4) are just a point back with the next team, Werder Bremen, a further six points adrift.

But, many will say, Bayern always come on strong in the second half of the season. They have the money, the players, the experience... more than enough to get the job done.

Well, to a point.

There are five good reasons to question the claims of Die Bayern at their current market price of [1.66].

(i) Germany's most trophied club have only won the Bundesliga title twice in the last five years (2009/10 and 2007/08).

Last season Borussia Dortmund won the league. Jurgen Klopp's side finishing 7 points clear of second-placed Bayer Leverkusen with Bayern, a full 10 points back, just making the tri-cast.

In 2008/09 it was Wolfsburg who beat the Bavarians to the title and back in 2006/07 VFB Stuttgart claimed the title with Bayern, again a full 10 points behind the eventual champions, only coming fourth and ending up in the UEFA Cup/Europa League!

(ii) Bayern's current form isn't the best... W5 D0 L3 of their last eight matches has seen their early season lead disappear, allowing others (like Dortmund W6 D1 L1) to make up ground. Munich need to find their form... and fast!

(iii) 18 games played so far in the Bundesliga. Bayern have played nine at home and nine away, whilst Dortmund have played 10 away but just eight games at home. Slight advantage there to the main challengers. Bayern must also travel to the Westfalenstadion later in the campaign (having already lost at home to Dortmund earlier in the season).

(iv) Champions League activity could also be a distraction as the title race hots up in March/April. Bayern would expect to get past Basle in the R16... which will mean at least four more matches to squeeze into their end of season schedule (even if they go out in the QFs).

(v) and let's not forget, aside of all the above points (added to fatigue, injuries, suspensions etc) that Bayern have still only won the Bundesliga in five of the last 10 years. Odds-on quotes before the season starts (let alone midway) still represent questionable value.

Should we be happy, therefore, to lump on the favourites at a pretty short price?

Dortmund have seven previous national titles to their name, most recently winning the Bundesliga in 2010/11.

They're a very big threat indeed. More so as they possess a very in-form goalscorer...young Polish striker, Robert Lewandowski. With 14 goals in 18 matches he's a highly-rated performer, even by Bayern.

Schalke 04 certainly aren't serial winners (last victorious way back in 1958) but Huub Stevens has a side who have been runners-up three times in the last six seasons. They're not easily discounted as a result.

It's only Borussia Mönchengladbach who lack any recent pedigree (their 1976/77 league win was their last of three consecutive titles in the mid-70's).

But they, along with the other two, make for a chasing pack that has both strength and depth.

If you want to back Bayern at a short price, fine, but you might have a job convincing this sceptic that the former champions are good value to regain their crown. And that's the matter which is in hand... are they value?

The logical play, given the points raised, is to take a 'value' position on their nearest (and biggest) threat, Dortmund, even considering a back-to-lay strategy.

Key Statistic

Bayern only have the sixth best record in the Bundesliga against their nearest rivals (i.e. sides in the top half of the table). Dortmund, Shalke and Mönchengladbach all have better results against the better teams.

Recommended Bets

Back Borussia Dortmund to win the Bundesliga at [3.45]

There are four teams separated by just one point in Germany after Bayern Munich's defeat was fully exploited, but skipper Philipp Lahm isn't panicking......

The second half of the Bundesliga season kicks off with a heavyweight clash, and Kevin Hatchard foresees a tight encounter....

Dimitar Berbatov will have plenty of options if Manchester United change their mind about letting him go, with four different suitors mentioned......

Amazon Watches Center

Follow The Money: Fairynuff a fair price

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Two backs and one lay are the order of the day in today's Follow The Money column. No change there then...

Today's movers come from the meetings at Kempton and Market Rasen.

Starting at Market Rasen in the 13:30 Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) over 2m 3f, Bar De Ligne has drifted out to [2.48] from [2.00]. With Trozulon now a non-runner, Bar De Ligne is the market favourite.The market suggests this should be between Bar De Ligne and Cross of Honour.However, there is little form to go on, and Bar De Ligne is taking a step up in class, having only won a Class 6 National Hunt Race. Perhaps punters regard the six year old gelding price as short enough in the circumstances.

Staying at Market Rasen in the 16:05 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 1f, Fairynuff has been well backed in to [6.0] from [11.33]. Fairynuff finished second last time out at Market Rasen over 2m3f and does appear to go well at Market Rasen, one win and two second place finishes in three visits there. Today, he drops down in trip, and that may be because he has pulled hard in previous races and it is deemed that a shorter trip may therefore be more suitable. He does look to have a reasonable chance in a fairly competitive handicap race.

Finally at Kempton in the 16:55 6f handicap Belinsky has been supported in to [4.60 from [6.20]. Belinsky won last time out at Kempton from a good draw 1, and has a good draw again today, drawn 2. The gelding is five, which is perhaps the optimal age for sprinters and if he can reproduce a similar effort today, he does look to have a reasonable chance of victory.

Recommended Bets

Lay Bar De Ligne @ [2.48] Market Rasen 13:30
Back Fairynuff @ [6.0] Market Rasen 16:05
Back Belinsky @ [4.60] Kempton 16:55

Two bets and one lay based on early price movements on the Betfair markets. It must be Follow The Money....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Catterick, Chepstow and Lingfield....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Ludlow and Taunton....

Amazon Watches Center

Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Hefner a huge price

Timeform Radio Tip / David Cleary / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Both Cleary's bets go on the Flat

"Hefner has solid each-way claims at a double-figure price."

David Cleary makes the picks today with bets at Doncaster and Newbury

Eight-race cards and large fields are the order of the day at both of this afternoon's Flat meetings, Doncaster and Newbury.

Both cards are top heavy with two-year-old maiden races as well, the first three contests at Doncaster and first four at Newbury all confined to those seeking a first win. There are plenty of well-bred newcomers from good stables in those events, so on the whole they're not appealing from a punting point of view without seeing the runners first, the exception being the 14:55 at Newbury.

There are three newcomers that make some appeal in this, but of those that have run the horse with the strongest form claims is Hefner, both the races in which he's run standing up well to scrutiny. He's also running over what is likely to be his optimum trip, whereas a few of his rivals will want further in due course. He might find a clued-up newcomer too good, but Hefner has solid each-way claims at a double-figure price.

Doncaster has five impossible-looking handicaps to follow the maidens, though it's very tempting to give Jameel another chance in the mile-and-a-quarter event at 16:55. He was a let-down when tipped here early in the month but his earlier form stands up well and he has Frankie Dettori on first time today, an advantage in what has the potential to be a relatively tactical affair. The drop in trip isn't against Jameel either. The main danger may well be New Hampshire, similarly unexposed and on a fair mark for his handicap debut. It's worth having him as a second string.

Recommended Bets
Back Hefner win and place @ [14.0] (win) in the 15.55 at Newbury
Back Jameel and New Hampshire @ [16.0] and [11.0] respectively in the 16.55 at Doncaster

Graham Cunningham offers three to follow at Carlisle today...

Rory Delargy joins Gina Bryce on Timeform Radio to analyse racing at Newmarket, Fontwell and Worcester. His best bets coming at Flat racing's headquarters...

Timeform Radio pundit Will Hayler makes a couple of promising Tuesday afternoon selections......

Play Casino & Poker here

Latest Derby Odds: Carlton's price settles but doubts remain

Ante-Post Betting / Joe Dyer / 01 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Carlton House (right) may not even make it to Epsom

"Our market now suggests that he is odds-against to line up on Saturday."

Carlton House price stabilises at [4.5] but will he even remain favourite on ante-post market?

Carlton House, still as short as [2.38] elsewhere, looks to have found his "true" price at [4.5] on Betfair for the Derby.

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin said: "Comments from John Warren today certainly seemed more hopeful than confident, and the Betfair market has responded.

"He is now [4.5] and, if anything, I can see the horse drifting further. And maybe it is even possible that he will lose favouritism on the Betfair ante-post market before tomorrow's declaration stage at 10am.

"Because, unfortunately, our market now suggests that he is odds-against to line up on Saturday."

On what promises to be a great weekend of racing, Timeform run the rule over what looks a strong, yet wide open, Oaks at Epsom on Friday......

Whilst the Derby is sure to be the race all eyes will be focused upon at Epsom on Saturday, the supporting card is due to feature a number of quality performers, with the 'Dash', over the world's fastest sprint course, a particular highlight. Timeform's Adam Brookes looks over the field......

The Oaks isn't the only Group 1 at Epsom on Friday, as there's also the Coronation Cup, in which Aidan O'Brien's St Nicholas Abbey is currently a short-priced favourite. But does he deserve to be?......

Play Casino & Poker here

Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Ministar at a massive price

Timeform Radio Tip / Jamie Lynch / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will you back Jamie's bets?

"There’s a strong case for Deauville Post to be trading at odds-on in a race in which the rest all have big question marks over them."

Jamie Lynch selects a pair of promising Wednesday afternoon bets, including a lively outsider a big odds...

It was around this time last year that Deauville Post finished second in a maiden at Newmarket. The winner, Desert Myth, was Timeform rated 112 by the end of the season, while the third Awsaal won his next two starts and fourth-home Theology went on to finish second in the Queen's Vase.

On that form, Deauvile Post will win today's low-key handicap at Lingfield at 16:40 by half the track. He lost his way in the summer, albeit in good races, but bounced back on his final 2010 start by finishing second in a handicap at Kempton, proving his worth on polytrack. Significantly kept in training by Richard Hannon, Deauville Post could and should be a class apart from the moderate opposition he faces today, and though short on the face of it at [2.6], there's a strong case for him to be trading at odds-on in a race in which the rest all have big question marks over them.

The 16:00 at Lingfield is crying out for a bet, considering that non-winners Tuscan King and Jonnie Skull are at the top of the market. An outsider worth throwing a few quid at is Pippbrook Ministar, who has far fewer miles on the clock than the rest and is well handicapped on the form she was showing at this track a year ago. A short break and first-time cheekpieces are other reasons for anticipating some sort of revival from Pippbrook Ministar today, and odds of around [25.0] are just too tempting to let go.

Recommended Bets:
Back Pippbrook Ministar @ [25.0] in the 16:00 @ Lingfield
Back Deauville Post @ [2.54] in the 16:30 @ Lingfield

David Johnson has just the one bet for us this afternoon but it looks a good one......

Timeform Radio pundit goes to Towcester for his best bets...

We'd be lying if we said it was a great day's racing ahead of us but that shouldn't stop us from making some money from today's action. David Cleary gives us his best bets....

Play Casino & Poker here

Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Tatispout can upset short price favourite

Timeform Radio Tip / Jeremy Grayson / 14 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Both today's selections are in action at Stratford

"Taking on a likely short-priced favourite with Tatispout makes a lot of sense... "

On the eve of Cheltenham, Jeremy Grayson selects a promising pair of runners that could get a big week off to a flyer...

The 2m7f handicap chase at Stratford (15:40) contains one animal who looks exceptionally well treated on his best form, but who also enters the race in good enough heart to think he can exploit that historically very low mark.

Daldini [4.0] can run off a 15lb lower rating than when recording a fifth chasing victory at Southwell over a year ago, and his most recent effort at Newcastle is not hard to mark up, as he was goaded into doing too much by rivals early on yet still had enough left once headed to box on for a creditable fourth place. Nothing is likely to take him on the same way here.

Importantly around this trappy venue, which claims its share of fallers, the Josr Algarhoud gelding remains a very safe conveyance in the main, with just two unseats and no falls in 48 runs over jumps (37 chases) all told. At least half of today's rivals, meanwhile, possess jumping issues of varying degrees of seriousness.

In addition, Sue Smith is already enjoying a splendid March, with five winners in the last 13 days having included three triumphs (one at 80-1) this last weekend alone.

Charlie Longsdon is another handler to have had a grand time of it just lately, with 44 jumps runners since the start of February garnering 12 winners (including one yesterday).

His filly Tatispout [5.7] gets into Stratford's feature handicap hurdle (16:10) off a flyweight. Confidence is high that she can defy a mark of 105 at the first time of asking, having shown clear improvement over each of three novice runs.

Already the winner of a 1m2f junior bumper on rattling fast ground in France last May, any further drying out of the surface here is unlikely to inconvenience her, and an 8lb age allowance rates another obvious plus.

With the McCoy-ridden Henderson handicap debutant Remember Now still having questions to answer regarding both willingness to settle in races and effectiveness on sounder surfaces, taking on that likely short-priced favourite with Tatispout makes a lot of sense.

Recommended bets:
Back Daldini @ [4.0] in the 15:40 @ Stratford
Back Tatispout @[5.7] on 16:10 @ Stratford

Rory Delargy will be in Timeform Radio's Cheltenham studio to go through today's racing at with Lorna Bradburne and he's found a monster bet at Market Rasen...

Jeremy Grayson picks out a pair to follow on the all-weather at Wolverhampton...

Graham Cunningham selects a pair of lively Friday afternoon runners......

Play Casino & Poker here

League One Betting: Have a bite of the Cherries' price

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 03 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Bournemouth's Michael Symes can help his side to three points against Oldham

"Expect Bournemouth to rotate between a 4-3-3 going forward, and digging in for a 4-5-1
to defend. The Cherries have a great attitude with a fine work-rate, that should be too good for Oldham."

Alan Dudman talks us through the best bets in League One this weekend, starting with why Bournemouth can beat Oldham at the ground formerly known as Dean Court...

Bournemouth [1.90] v Oldham Athletic [4.50], the draw [3.65]

Oldham haven't scored a goal in five games, whilst Bournemouth have maintained their push for promotion under new boss Lee Bradbury, and yet the layers look like they are taking a slight chance with the [1.90] on offer for the Cherries.

The case to back the home side here is fairly conclusive. Saturday's 2-1 win at Dagenham was the first time Bradbury's side have gone behind in a game, yet came back to win it, and remain unbeaten since Eddie Howe left for Burnley. Bournemouth look a tough team to beat and can really dig in against opponents when needed,
plus are quite capable of doing the ugly side of things.

Oldham will try and be ugly here. They haven't scored in 450 minutes of football and defended appallingly last Saturday when losing 5-0 at home to Peterborough. Having completely collapsed after conceding the first goal, Latics boss Paul Dickov said: "That will be the first and only time."

That gives us the recipe for the visitors to try and spoil this, and the hosts will need one moment or two of quality to win - which they have. Expect Bournemouth to rotate between a 4-3-3 going forward, and digging in for a 4-5-1 to defend. The Cherries have a great attitude with a fine work-rate, that should be too good for Oldham.

Best bet: Back Bournemouth to win @ [1.90]
Back Bournemouth to win 1-0 [10.00] and 2-0 [12.00]

Peterborough United [1.81] v Exeter City [4.80], the draw [3.95]

Yes we all know about Peterborough, so do the layers of the over 2.5 goals markets - which trade at a miserly [1.58] for this match. Yes, Craig Mackail Smith with his 19 league goals is brilliant. And yes, Lee Tomlin is a player oozing
quality. And we all are aware of the 5-0 win over Oldham last Saturday to make it a staggering 72 goals this season for Darren Ferguson's side. But I will start with the vistors.

Why? Well Exeter were held 1-1 against Tranmere in midweek, with Tranmere boss Les Parry labelling the Grecians as the best footballing side in the division. Exeter like to pass, and do well against counter-attacking teams. Posh however
don't do counter-attacks, they just pour forward.

I wouldn't quite put Exeter as the best in terms of possession, but they like to pass and play good football. However if they try and out-pass Peterborough it could be a fairly dangerous tactic. In midfielder Ryan Harley they have one of the loveliest touch footballers in the division, but they'll have to pull out something special here. On the plus side, they have played much better away from home and have netted wins at Charlton and Notts County.

Back Peterborough to win @ [1.81]
Back Peterborough in Asian Handicap -0.5 and -1.0 @ [2.00]
Back any unquoted score @ [6.00]

Rochdale [2.42] v MK Dons [3.15], the draw [3.45]

A very rare opportunity to talk about Rochdale this week, a side that hardly ever gets a mention round these parts. Shame on me too - they are unbeaten in 11 games with the play-offs still a possibility. Manager Keith Hill has one of the fittest squads in the league, who score too. Saturday's 0-0 at Walsall was a slight blip though, considering the Dale
failed to net just once in 13 games prior to that.

However it's the MK Dons I am interested in here. A 1-0 win over Brighton last weekend is the standout, and achieved with some cracking football. Dons boss Karl Robinson was left drooling: "At times it was exhilarating and a joy to watch." This young team is going places.

The Buckinghamshire outfit can beat most teams on their day with their attractive pass and move style, plus their away form has been the key to their push into the play-off zone. The MK Dons are far more consistent now.

Back MK Dons to win @ [3.45]
Back MK Dons to win 1-2 @ [16.00]

Alan Dudman talks us through the best bets in League One this weekend, starting with why Bournemouth can beat Oldham at the ground formerly known as Dean Court......

Ian Lamont tells us why Crewe are worth taking on at home to Burton plus the remaining best betting options in League Two this weekend....

The televised Notts County v Charlton on Friday night is the featured match in this week's column. A column worth reading because Alan Dudman is in fine form, showing a profit of 31.42 points to level stakes since December 30....

Play Casino & Poker here

Ligue 1 Betting: A Nice price

French Football / James Eastham / 17 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Danijel Ljuboja is congratulated by Nice coach Eric Roy

"Nice may be struggling near the foot of the table but boast impressive stats of W5-D3-L3 on home soil. Only league leaders Lille have won there in the past three months."

The ever-in-form James Eastham talks us through his best selections ahead of another weekend of Ligue 1 action.

Lyon (5th) v Nancy (14th) (Friday, 7.45pm kick-off UK time)

Lyon have scored nine times in four games since the start of the New Year, including four away to bitter rivals St Etienne (4-1) last weekend. Yoann Gourcuff has been in miserable form all season but finally found his range from set-pieces, setting up Lyon's first two goals from corners.

Nancy's games feature lots of goals because their defence is among the worst in the division (only wooden-spoon holders Arles have conceded more) but Julien Feret in one of the division's best playmakers and Youssouf Hadji a combative striker with good finishing skills. The pair were excellent in last week's 3-1 win over Auxerre, with supporting cast Alexandre Cuvillier and Marama Vahirua equally influential.
Seven of Nancy's 11 away league games and their last six home and away in all competitions have featured over 2.5 goals.

Lorient (11th) v Bordeaux (9th) (Sat, 8pm)

It took Lorient's players a short time to adapt to the artificial surface laid at their Stade du Moustoir last summer but the new pitch has turned into a key asset over the past five months. Since mid-September their record on it in all competitions is W9-D2-L0, including clean sheets in their last four league outings. Lorient also boast the division's in-form striker in Kevin Gameiro, who has scored six goals in his last four games.

Bordeaux are a shadow of the side that lifted the league title two seasons ago. They've won only one of their last nine fixtures and have recorded just one victory on the road against sides currently outside the bottom six. Goalkeeper Cedric Carrasso is one of the most overworked in the division.
Lorient are far too big at [2.50].

Nice (16th) v PSG (4th) (Sun, 4pm)

Nice may be struggling near the foot of the table but boast impressive stats of W5-D3-L3 on home soil. Only league leaders Lille have won there in the past three months.

This is a good time to face PSG, too: the visitors have failed score in their past two league games and had a difficult Europa League game against BATE Borisov in sub-zero conditions in Minsk on Thursday night. Only three of PSG's first-team squad (Sylvain Armand, Siaka Tiene and Claude Makelele) missed that game so the squad will be tired this weekend.

The price on Nice avoiding defeat looks too big.

Nice (16th) v PSG (4th) (Sun, 4pm) and Toulouse (8th) v Rennes (2nd) (Sun, 8pm)

This is the under goals multiple selection of the weekend.

Nice's last 14 games have all had under 2.5 goals. Les Aiglon
s are the division's second-lowest scorers with just 15 from 23 games. They have an average goals-per-game count of 1.81.

PSG have failed to score in their last two league games and two of three away matches. The entire attack is suffering as a result of star man Nene's poor form.

Toulouse are one of the division's most shot-shy sides. They didn't manage a single attempt on target in last weekend's 2-0 defeat at Lille. Fifteen of their 23 (65%) matches have had under 2.5 goals.

Rennes' away stats are remarkable: eight scored and 11 conceded gives a goal-per-game count of 1.73. Eight of those 11 away games - and eight of their last 10 home and away - have featured under 2.5 goals.
An under 2.5 goals double on these two games pays out at [2.36].

Best Bet:

Lorient to beat Bordeaux @ [2.50].

Other Recommended Bets: Lyon v Nancy over 2.5 goals @ [2.00]; Nice +0.25 v PSG at [2.05]; Nice v PSG and Toulouse v Rennes under 2.5 goals double @ [2.36].

The ever-in-form James Eastham talks us through his best selections ahead of another weekend of Ligue 1 action....

Lille are still six points clear at the top of Ligue 1 but they could have been further ahead had both Marseille and Lyon not come from behind to win tough away matches. But a tiring side and a poor...

Ace French football tipster James Eastham brings another round of value bets from Ligue 1...

Play Casino & Poker here