Against All Odds: Benfica just too short for Primeira Liga clash

"Guimaraes are running into a bit of form and will take hope from the fact that they haven’t lost to them in the league at home for two seasons."

Lay Benfica v Guimaraes @ 1.392/5

Benfica are long odds-on for their trip to Guimaraes in the Primeria Liga this evening and while they are the most likely winners, Paul Robinson thinks their price is just too short and has to be opposed.

Guimaraes are up to sixth in the league after back to back victories and after just missing out on European qualification last term, they have a great shot of making amends this time around. Pacos de Ferreira may be out of sight in fourth place, but they are level on points with Rio Ave in the last remaining qualifying spot, with only goal difference splitting them.

After a bit of a shaky start to their campaign at home, Rui Vitória's side have won three of their last five at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, losing just one to the reigning champions Porto. All those victories came with clean sheets and when they played Benfica at home last season, they beat them 1-0.  

Benfica are flying at the moment - unbeaten in the league and through to the quarter-finals of the Europa. They've won their last four Primeira Liga matches to nil, scoring a total of 10 goals. They really are in red-hot form, with Oscar Cardozo leading the way with 25 goals in all competitions.

They aren't completely infallible though as Braga managed to knock them out of the Taca da Liga on penalties at the end of February and another concern I have is that they had a hard game in France on Thursday against Bordeaux. 

It's quite clear that Jorge Jesus' men are the worthy favourites for this clash, but they are far from nailed on. Guimaraes are running into a bit of form and will take hope from the fact that they haven't lost to them in the league at home for two seasons. Add in the fact that Benfica have had less than 72 hours since their last match and it makes me believe that their odds of 1.392/5 are just too short and have to be opposed. That's why, at the prices, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Benfica v Guimaraes @ 1.392/5 

This match is available on Betfair Live Video at 20:30

Wagered: 75 pts
Returned: 71.30 pts
P/L – 3.70 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Opta Big Match Stats: Norwich to fall short against Man United

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 25 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Javier Hernandez is pushing for a starting spot after scoring four in four

"Manchester United have kept the most clean sheets in the Premier League this season (12) while only Blackburn (0) have kept fewer than Norwich (2)."

Manchester United struggled against Ajax on Thursday but, after consulting the Opta stats, Michael Lintorn expects them to perform much better at Norwich on Sunday...

Manchester United have kept the most clean sheets in the Premier League this season (12) while only Blackburn (0) have kept fewer than Norwich (2)
Half of those Red Devils clean sheets have come on the road too, with eight of their last 14 hosts in all competitions failing to find a way past David de Gea and co. Given that the champions shut out the Canaries in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford and did the same when they visited fellow Premier League newcomers Swansea and QPR, odds of [2.52] on them not conceding look very appealing.

The last four games in all competitions between Norwich and Man United at Carrow Road have ended with a 2-0 scoreline, as did the meeting earlier this season at Old Trafford
On three of the aforementioned four occasions, this outcome occurred in Sir Alex Ferguson's side's favour, so given the statistics indicating that they will keep a clean sheet, they are the obvious team of the two to keep the trend alive. 2-0 was also the result in their last away match against Ajax in the Europa League, while it was also the margin that they defeated QPR by at Loftus Road in December.

Five of Javier Hernandez's eight Premier League goals this season have been the opening goal of the game
Hernandez has made a firm case for being recalled to Manchester United's Premier League starting line up by firing in his last four appearances, with his strikes in both legs against Ajax prolonging their Europa League participation. The prolific Mexican has scored 21 goals in 27 top-flight starts in England and three of his five deadlock-breakers this term came away (Bolton, Everton, Swansea).

Recommended Bets:
Manchester United to keep a clean sheet @ [2.52]
Manchester United to win 2-0 @ [9.4]
Hernandez to score first @ [6.1]

Click here to read even more from Opta about this encounter

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Golf Betting: Rory and Tiger's odds are simply too short

Golf Bets / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Tiger Woods ever repeat his best Pebble Beach form again?

"Tiger Woods may have most of his game back, but he simply doesn't carry the same persona these days, and perhaps even the self-confidence that drove him to rewrite the history books time and again."

Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods will have an army of followers this week, in the Betfair markets that is, but Paul Krishnamurty believes both are worth taking on at their current short odds.

Eight weeks ahead of the opening major of 2012, a two-horse race narrative is gaining momentum. With Phil Mickelson, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood making slow starts to their campaigns, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy are streets ahead of the rest in the betting at [6.2] and [8.4] respectively, and with the big-2 heading markets on each main tour, this week offers a good opportunity for punters to weigh up their form. Moreover, it offers a good test case for whether either man, or indeed anyone, can represent good value at single-figure odds nowadays.

First, the positives. Arguing with their course form credentials would be churlish. McIlroy's first title came at the Dubai Desert Classic, albeit at several times this week's miserly [5.4] quote. Tiger has won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and produced arguably his finest ever performance when winning the 2000 US Open by 15 shots on this famous links. Both played very well on their seasonal debuts, contending throughout at the Abu Dhabi Championship.

However, with that event fresh in the memory, I'm not convinced either man represents value. Betting may be ultimately about picking winners, but repeatedly taking too short a price will lose over the long-term. For my money, the only times a golfer can represent good value in single figures are when either the opposition is weak, or the player in question is prolific. Neither comment can be fairly applied here.

Tiger was of course unbelievably prolific at his peak, but while his effort in Abu Dhabi was good, it wasn't reminiscent of his old self. Once upon a time, Woods was unbeatable when holding a weekend lead. This time he was comprehensively outplayed by relative journeyman Robert Rock in the final 3-ball (Peter Hanson was the other contender to fall away), barely hitting a green in regulation and failing to put the pressure on when Rock began to flounder. Rather than conjuring memories of the glory days, it strengthened the doubts left by another recent failure, when blowing a weekend lead at the Australian Open to the hardly terrifying figures of Greg Chalmers and John Senden.

Tiger may have most of his game back, but he simply doesn't carry the same persona these days, and perhaps even the self-confidence that drove him to rewrite the history books time and again. Without that aura, he must be considered a normal golfer, albeit a very good one, about whom short odds can only occasionally appeal, in specific circumstances. A pro-am, where anyone can hit a very low score, isn't one of them. He might be a former champion, but one title from six attempts makes it one of his weaker events. Given that he missed the top-ten in four out of those six previous attempts, the best value may lie in laying at [1.7] and [2.5] for the top-ten and top-five markets.

The wider point is that nobody at the top of the game seems particularly prolific these days, and with the competition getting fiercer by the day, we may never see the likes of a young Woods again. McIlroy is a classic case in point. He may well be world number one by the end of the year, and is phenomenally consistent. Seeking to pick holes in his form is increasingly futile. Yet for all that, McIlroy has won only four times in well over 100 tournaments. One doesn't need a maths degree to work out that doesn't equate to a [5.4] chance.

There is a sound counter argument that Rory nearly always trades shorter than that In-Play, but with an afternoon tee-time, there is every chance he will face an uphill task to catch the leaders and drift before even hitting a shot. With no shortage of plausible alternatives, including fellow members of the golfing elite like Westwood and Martin Kaymer, laying McIlroy at such a short opening price could be a good position to start building an In-Play book.

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Lay Tiger Woods for top-five finish @ [2.5]
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Gareth's Good Thing: Goals may be in short supply at the Etihad

Premier League / Gareth Purnell / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

David Silva is not such a destructive force without Yaya Toure

"Only the two Manchester clubs and Liverpool have conceded fewer Premier League goals and as the season has gone, the defence has got better and better with the number of goals against falling steadily - as the table in this article shows."

Gareth Purnell is not convinced by the market's assumption that we are in for a minor goal-fest when Manchester City face Tottenham on Sunday afternoon - read on to find out why

Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur, kick off Sunday 1.30pm
Match Odds: Manchester City [1.94]; The Draw [3.85]; Tottenham Hotspur [4.3]
If I wanted to make a case for plenty of goals in this crucial Premier League encounter, it wouldn't be difficult.

Manchester City are the top scorers in the division with 57 goals in 21 games; they are top of the league, and even top of the six-match form table despite an apparent recent wobble; they have only been involved in one home game all season that has finished under the 1.5 goals line and they face a Spurs side that's playing the beautiful game and who have not played in a single away game that hasn't produced at least two goals.

Plus, when the teams met earlier in the season there were six goals, with Manchester City inflicting Tottenham's only home defeat on them and in some style too, thumping the Londoners 5-1.

But that was then and this is now and there are reasons for thinking this game could be tighter than many are expecting.

For a start there is no doubting that right now, the leaders are not quite the same force as they were earlier in the season. In fact this is easily their worst run of the season and in all competitions they have actually lost three and only won two of their last six fixtures.

And if you look just under the surface it's not that hard to work out why. Probably the biggest blow is the loss of Yaya Toure to the African Nations Cup.

Toure is the man who does the work that creates space for the mercurial David Silva to pick defences apart. Without him Silva seems much easier to keep tabs on and he looked very ineffective in their recent 1-0 defeat of Wigan and their 1-0 home loss to Liverpool in the Carling Cup. If Silva is starved of the freedom and time to pick a pass, Manchester City do not look the same attacking force and are not creating as many gilt-edged chances as they have been.

Vincent Kompany is also a big loss and he will miss this game through suspension after the ridiculous red card against Manchester United. It's never ideal to lose the leadership qualities of your established captain.

Then there's Mario Balotelli. A true Marmite player if ever there was one. Quite simply, you either love him or you hate him. I'm firmly in the former camp and I can absolutely see why Roberto Mancini puts up with him.

The man who usually replaces him, Edin Dzeko is functional. Balotelli has a touch of class and that's often what's required to unlock the top defences in the league. Unfortunately for Manchester City fans, the Italian is carrying an ankle injury and even if he plays it's debatable whether he will be able to hit top form in his first game back.

And Spurs certainly have a defence to shout about. In fact only the two Manchester clubs and Liverpool have conceded fewer Premier League goals and as the season has gone, the defence has got better and better with the number of goals against falling steadily - as the table in this article shows.

If we look at the last six games only, the period when City have been most affected by suspensions, injuries and the African Nations Cup, they have been strikingly low on goals with only eight for and one against for a game average of just 1.5 goals. And Spurs' last six have been hardly more prolific with eight goals for and only three against for an average of 1.8 goals a game.

And this is such an important fixture. Victory for City would put them eight points clear of the Londoners and some might argue that Spurs would be out of the title race. But lose this and Tottenham are only two points behind them.

This dynamic might well lead to the managers being even less gung-ho than they have been of late and a cagey start is quite likely. In fact in the Match Odds market I make the draw a big runner, and I've also been looking at the First Goal Odds market where I consider an early goal unlikely.

Half of City's home games and two thirds of Tottenham's away games have failed to produce four goals and given recent form, the player availability situation and perhaps most importantly the importance of this game to both clubs, it could pay to swim against the tide and lay over 3.5 goals in this one.

Recommended Bet
Lay over 3.5 goals at [3.2]

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Coronation Cup Betting: Favourite St Nicholas Abbey too short?

Ante-Post Betting / Mark Powell-Bevan / 30 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Middleton winner Midday should arguably be favourite for the Coronation Cup

"the simple facts are that Midday has the more reliable (and arguably better) form, gets 3 lb from her rival, and has shown she acts around Epsom..."

The Oaks isn't the only Group 1 at Epsom on Friday, as there's also the Coronation Cup, in which Aidan O'Brien's St Nicholas Abbey is currently a short-priced favourite. But does he deserve to be?...

No. There's no point beating around the bush. Yes, St Nicholas Abbey is a high-class colt who still has potential, having run out an impressive winner of the Racing Post Trophy in 2009 and got his career back on track when bolting up in the Ormonde at Chester in May. But there are still niggling doubts about him, including whether he can take a sustained period of racing, remembering that he raced only twice in between (missed the 2010 Derby, for which he was ante-post favourite, through injury) those two successes, and exactly what that Chester form is worth, the second and third, Allied Powers and Harris Tweed, arguably not seen at their best for different reasons.

At the time of writing, St Nicholas Abbey is [2.06] to win the Coronation Cup at Epsom, but that price is surely too short bearing in mind the opposition he will face compared to at Chester. Granted, there isn't much strength in depth on Friday (O'Brien says SNA will be his only runner and the James Given-trained pair Dandino and Indian Days have plenty to find), but in Henry Cecil's Midday, St Nicholas Abbey is going to face by far his most formidable challenger so far.

Midday has been performing consistently at the top level for a long time now, having finished runner-up in the Epsom Oaks in 2009, going on to win two Nassaus, a Yorkshire Oaks, a Vermeille, a Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (unlucky loser last year) and, most recently, the Middleton at York, in which she ran out a comfortable two-length winner over Sajjhaa.

That York form, along with a number of other efforts that Midday has produced looks solid, something which can't necessarily be said of St Nicholas Abbey's nine-length demolition job around a track like Chester, which makes it hard to fathom why Midday is currently trading at [2.6], especially as she will be in receipt of the fillies allowance.

There's surely a bit of the 'O'Brien Factor' at play with St Nicholas Abbey's price, in a race that the Ballydoyle trainer has won four times in the last six years (with Yeats, Scorpion, Soldier of Fortune and Fame And Glory), which is justified to an extent, but the simple facts are that Midday has the more reliable (and arguably better) form, gets 3 lb from her rival, and has shown she acts around Epsom, making her a strong selection.

Don't be surprised if the odds are much tighter on Friday, perhaps even with Midday going off favourite?!

Recommendation

Back Midday @ [2.6] for the Coronation Cup at Epsom on Friday

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Tatispout can upset short price favourite

Timeform Radio Tip / Jeremy Grayson / 14 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Both today's selections are in action at Stratford

"Taking on a likely short-priced favourite with Tatispout makes a lot of sense... "

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The 2m7f handicap chase at Stratford (15:40) contains one animal who looks exceptionally well treated on his best form, but who also enters the race in good enough heart to think he can exploit that historically very low mark.

Daldini [4.0] can run off a 15lb lower rating than when recording a fifth chasing victory at Southwell over a year ago, and his most recent effort at Newcastle is not hard to mark up, as he was goaded into doing too much by rivals early on yet still had enough left once headed to box on for a creditable fourth place. Nothing is likely to take him on the same way here.

Importantly around this trappy venue, which claims its share of fallers, the Josr Algarhoud gelding remains a very safe conveyance in the main, with just two unseats and no falls in 48 runs over jumps (37 chases) all told. At least half of today's rivals, meanwhile, possess jumping issues of varying degrees of seriousness.

In addition, Sue Smith is already enjoying a splendid March, with five winners in the last 13 days having included three triumphs (one at 80-1) this last weekend alone.

Charlie Longsdon is another handler to have had a grand time of it just lately, with 44 jumps runners since the start of February garnering 12 winners (including one yesterday).

His filly Tatispout [5.7] gets into Stratford's feature handicap hurdle (16:10) off a flyweight. Confidence is high that she can defy a mark of 105 at the first time of asking, having shown clear improvement over each of three novice runs.

Already the winner of a 1m2f junior bumper on rattling fast ground in France last May, any further drying out of the surface here is unlikely to inconvenience her, and an 8lb age allowance rates another obvious plus.

With the McCoy-ridden Henderson handicap debutant Remember Now still having questions to answer regarding both willingness to settle in races and effectiveness on sounder surfaces, taking on that likely short-priced favourite with Tatispout makes a lot of sense.

Recommended bets:
Back Daldini @ [4.0] in the 15:40 @ Stratford
Back Tatispout @[5.7] on 16:10 @ Stratford

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