Golf Betting: Rory and Tiger's odds are simply too short

Golf Bets / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Tiger Woods ever repeat his best Pebble Beach form again?

"Tiger Woods may have most of his game back, but he simply doesn't carry the same persona these days, and perhaps even the self-confidence that drove him to rewrite the history books time and again."

Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods will have an army of followers this week, in the Betfair markets that is, but Paul Krishnamurty believes both are worth taking on at their current short odds.

Eight weeks ahead of the opening major of 2012, a two-horse race narrative is gaining momentum. With Phil Mickelson, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood making slow starts to their campaigns, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy are streets ahead of the rest in the betting at [6.2] and [8.4] respectively, and with the big-2 heading markets on each main tour, this week offers a good opportunity for punters to weigh up their form. Moreover, it offers a good test case for whether either man, or indeed anyone, can represent good value at single-figure odds nowadays.

First, the positives. Arguing with their course form credentials would be churlish. McIlroy's first title came at the Dubai Desert Classic, albeit at several times this week's miserly [5.4] quote. Tiger has won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and produced arguably his finest ever performance when winning the 2000 US Open by 15 shots on this famous links. Both played very well on their seasonal debuts, contending throughout at the Abu Dhabi Championship.

However, with that event fresh in the memory, I'm not convinced either man represents value. Betting may be ultimately about picking winners, but repeatedly taking too short a price will lose over the long-term. For my money, the only times a golfer can represent good value in single figures are when either the opposition is weak, or the player in question is prolific. Neither comment can be fairly applied here.

Tiger was of course unbelievably prolific at his peak, but while his effort in Abu Dhabi was good, it wasn't reminiscent of his old self. Once upon a time, Woods was unbeatable when holding a weekend lead. This time he was comprehensively outplayed by relative journeyman Robert Rock in the final 3-ball (Peter Hanson was the other contender to fall away), barely hitting a green in regulation and failing to put the pressure on when Rock began to flounder. Rather than conjuring memories of the glory days, it strengthened the doubts left by another recent failure, when blowing a weekend lead at the Australian Open to the hardly terrifying figures of Greg Chalmers and John Senden.

Tiger may have most of his game back, but he simply doesn't carry the same persona these days, and perhaps even the self-confidence that drove him to rewrite the history books time and again. Without that aura, he must be considered a normal golfer, albeit a very good one, about whom short odds can only occasionally appeal, in specific circumstances. A pro-am, where anyone can hit a very low score, isn't one of them. He might be a former champion, but one title from six attempts makes it one of his weaker events. Given that he missed the top-ten in four out of those six previous attempts, the best value may lie in laying at [1.7] and [2.5] for the top-ten and top-five markets.

The wider point is that nobody at the top of the game seems particularly prolific these days, and with the competition getting fiercer by the day, we may never see the likes of a young Woods again. McIlroy is a classic case in point. He may well be world number one by the end of the year, and is phenomenally consistent. Seeking to pick holes in his form is increasingly futile. Yet for all that, McIlroy has won only four times in well over 100 tournaments. One doesn't need a maths degree to work out that doesn't equate to a [5.4] chance.

There is a sound counter argument that Rory nearly always trades shorter than that In-Play, but with an afternoon tee-time, there is every chance he will face an uphill task to catch the leaders and drift before even hitting a shot. With no shortage of plausible alternatives, including fellow members of the golfing elite like Westwood and Martin Kaymer, laying McIlroy at such a short opening price could be a good position to start building an In-Play book.

Recommended bets

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am
Lay Tiger Woods for top-five finish @ [2.5]
Lay Tiger Woods for top-ten finish @ [1.7]

Dubai Desert Classic
Lay Rory McIlroy to win @ [5.4]

Dan Geraghty is hoping for better luck with his three-ball tips, making four selections for the opening day action at the Commercialbank Qatar Masters...

Danny Lee is a massive [350.0] and Ryan Palmer a chunky [160.0] to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open at Scottsdale but this pair of birdie machines could kickstart their seasons on a course that looks to provide an ideal...

Beware early-season judgements and punish over-reacting layers is Paul Krishnamurty's message this week, noting huge prices available on two huge talents - Jason Day and Gary Woodland - either side of the Atlantic...

Amazon Watches Center

Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Simply the best?

Timeform Radio Tip / David Cleary / 06 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will you back David's Monday bets?

"Simply Strong looks the likeliest winner of the handicap chase at 15:15... "

David Cleary selects a pair of bets that standout from some pretty standard Monday afternoon fare...

Folkestone and Newton Abbot provide the afternoon action and there isn't much on either card to set the pulse racing. So far as bets are concerned, the best options are probably in Devon, where Simply Strong looks the likeliest winner of the handicap chase at 15:15. He is less exposed than most of his rivals and ran well over course and distance on his latest start, just run out of it by Life of A Luso.

The likeable winner would have gone in again at Stratford but for falling at the last, which gives an extra shine to Simply Strong's form. He has a fairly obvious chance but a couple of the others have half-decent claims as well, so the price shouldn't be too short.

The staying handicap hurdle at 16:45 won't take much winning and Burnthill is an obvious favourite after a good run at Huntingdon last month. However, he was a little flattered by the final margin and it might be worth taking a chance with Little Eaglet stepping up in trip. He came from a long way back in a slowly-run novice over two miles six here last time, spared a hard race, and wouldn't need to improve much on that form to take a hand back in handicap company.

Recommended Bets
Back Simply Strong @ [3.75] in the 15:15 at Newton Abbot
Back Little Eaglet @ [7.0] in the 16:45 at Newton Abbot

Jeremy Grayson is your Timeform Radio pundit on a day of jumps action in the UK...

David Cleary makes three selections on a very busy Saturday in UK racing...

Neil Munro looks ahead to a fascinating day's racing of which of course the highlight is the action at Epsom, where he's predicting a big run from a big outsider....

Play Casino & Poker here

Dutching on Betfair: Simply better than the rest and here's why

Bloggers / Joe Dyer / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Dutching may be the best Mutliples option in big field races

"A normal fixed odds accumulator in our example would cost 12 bets, however a Betfair dutched accumulator only costs one bet."

Betfair's Peter Flynn explains why the Exchange's Mutliples product offers better value then our competitors

One advantage Betfair's Horseracing Multiples has over other firms is the opportunity to Dutch selections. This means that you can back more than one horse in several races for just one total bet.

The way this works is that the percentage chances of each individual selection winning are added together to create a combined price. This means that whichever horse wins, the same amount is won on the race.

For example...

Horse Race Leg one - two selections - [6.0] and [3.0]
Horse Race Leg two - three selections - [10.0], [5.0] and [10.0]
Horse Race Leg three - one selection - [2.0] and a non-runner

A normal fixed odds accumulator in this instance would cost 12 bets, however a Betfair dutched accumulator only costs one bet.

In leg one in theory the first horse has 16.67% chance of winning and horse two has a 33.3% chance of winning, between them they have a 50% chance which equates to a Betfair price of [2.0].

In leg two the horses have 10% +20%+10% 40% chance of winning which equates to a Betfair price of [2.5].

In leg Three all money goes onto the one remaining selection at [2.0].

A £10 Treble will pay £100 with Betfair on the above selections, and it doesn't matter which one of your horses win, you collect the same amount of profit. You can add as many selections as you like and it's still only one bet, this could be quite useful foe example if you think that the high numbers will have an advantage in the Lincoln.

Dutching is currently exclusive to Betfair Multiples, and we now also take E/W bets as well. To access our Horse Racing Multiples site, click the link below.

http://horseracing.betfair.com/

Our blogger looks for guidance in the First-season sire market and explains some crucial alterations to the draw in Britain......

There was just a fleeting half second when it seemed as though the wonderful Grands Crus was actually going to go by, but then Big Buck's spied his challenger and asserted his authority as (arguably) the most talented horse in training. The World Hurdle was a truly fantastic race, quickening the pulse of even a cynical punter such as I. Made even better by the fact that Pipey's grey did the decent thing and at least came second....

'Pocket talker' is a familiar retort across the plethora of racing forums whenever a complaint about a ride is made. The reasoning seemingly being that the complainer is bias by his financial interest. I do wonder though why anyone would care about a poor ride unless they'd backed it? Anyway, Aidan Coleman, all my pockets say that was far from great....

Play Casino & Poker here