Against All Odds: Reds to take something from the Etihad

"Sergio Aguero is back from injury but something doesn't seem to be quite clicking for them this term and the absence of skipper, Vincent Kompany, could prove vital for this match."

Lay Man City v Liverpool @ 1.9520/21

Liverpool travel to Manchester City this afternoon and despite showing some good recent form, they aren't expected to get anything from this match, something which Paul Robinson disagrees with.

Manchester City couldn't break down QPR on Tuesday night and the 0-0 draw means they now trail United by 10 points, although they do have a game in hand. With no European football left, Roberto Mancini's future could look bleak if he can't deliver a second Premier League title this summer.

Prior to that draw at Loftus Road, City had been in good form, winning their previous six in all competitions. Sergio Aguero is back from injury but something doesn't seem to be quite clicking for them this term and the absence of skipper, Vincent Kompany, could prove vital for this match. Matija Nastasic should return to partner Joleon Lescott at the back but I wouldn't fancy them to be able to contain the sublime Luis Suarez.

Liverpool blew a two goal lead at the Emirates on Wednesday to draw 2-2 with Arsenal but the performance was good and it at least put the debacle at Oldham behind them. The Reds have been in good form in the league, thrashing QPR, Sunderland and Norwich, and although they lost at Old Trafford, they were much better in the second half and could have taken a point.

Daniel Sturridge has added a bit more threat up front and Jamie Carragher's surprise return to the back four has made them into a much more solid unit as Martin Skrtel's form has dipped lately. Steven Gerrard is playing his best football for two years and the much maligned Jordan Henderson is finally showing what he can do now he's being played in his favoured position.

Manchester City just aren't as good as they were last season for my money, so with a resurgent Liverpool in town, at around the 1.9520/21 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Man City v Liverpool @ 1.9520/21

This match can be seen live on Sky Sports One from 16:00

Wagered: 33 pts
Returned: 27.93 pts
P/L - 5.07 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Two And a Half Goals: Expect fireworks at the Etihad on Sunday

"I feel this will be the day City show they are still very much in the title race by putting on a show against Liverpool."

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Man City v Liverpool at 1.75

The Inside Man is back with his Under/Over 2.5 Goals dilemma. Which way will he go this week in his selected matches?

Saturday

Arsenal v Stoke

Attitude plays a huge part in the scoreline of a football match. 

For the bulk of this season, Stoke were consummate professionals, playing to their defensive and combative strengths. And so they chalked up the points as they went, through a long series of hard-fought and low-scoring games.

But since Christmas, that's all changed. Stoke's last six matches have all been high-scoring, yielding 25 goals in total. For me, this difference in results most likely comes from a change in mentality. With 30 points already, the Potters have positioned themselves in midtable, a healthy distance from the relegation battle. With 39/40 traditionally considered the magic number for safety, it appears Tony Pulis's side now want their points to come in big chunks, by going more ambitiously in search of wins.

And Arsenal are just the sort of team who'll relish a more end-to-end encounter, as opposed to the siege-like fixture this usually equates too. The Gunners' last six home games have contained 26 goals. And with 10 of those having been goals conceded, there should be plenty of chances for Stoke to find the net and make this a game to remember.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.758/11

West Ham v Swansea

75 percent of Swansea's away games this season have been low-scoring. And the average number of goals per game is actually dropping, with three of their last four road games having ended 0-0.

There's no doubt the Swans take a defensive approach when on their travels. They boast the Premier League's best away defence, having conceded a goal less than Man City. They've also scored less goals than all the teams above them, as well as quite a few of the sides below them. And the departure of striker Danny Graham to Sunderland means Michael Laudrup now has even less firepower at his disposal.

As for West Ham, they go into this game short on confidence and unlikely to be too attacking themselves. After three heavy beatings on the road recently, the Hammers will be glad to get back to Upton Park. But their last home game saw them held 1-1 by struggling QPR, and unravelling a stubborn Swansea defence could prove even more difficult. But Big Sam is ever the pragmatist. So don't be surprised to see him settle for a sensible point, to stop the rot, and help edge his side further away from relegation.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.0621/20

Sunday

Man City v Liverpool

I'm expecting fireworks at the Etihad on Sunday. I feel this will be the day City show they are still very much in the title race by putting on a show against Liverpool.

Not that their home games are ever boring. 36 goals in 12 home matches tells you that. And now that Sergio Aguero is back fit, and troublemaker Mario Balotelli has departed, that average should rise.

Liverpool will bring plenty to this party though. The Reds away matches have been even more fruitful, bearing 40 goals from their 12 games. Luis Suarez is in rampant form at the moment, while Liverpool are enjoying their most prolific run since the arrival of Brendan Rodgers, having scored in each of their last 11 league games.

City have big defensive problems going into this fixture with the absence of their rock at the back, Vincent Kompany, a massive loss for them. New signing Coutinho is unlikely to debut in time for Liverpool, and so this game looks set to be all about the forwards. With Liverpool's last six away games having all been high-scoring, I can't see any way in which that run won't continue here.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.758/11

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Gareth's Good Thing: Goals may be in short supply at the Etihad

Premier League / Gareth Purnell / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

David Silva is not such a destructive force without Yaya Toure

"Only the two Manchester clubs and Liverpool have conceded fewer Premier League goals and as the season has gone, the defence has got better and better with the number of goals against falling steadily - as the table in this article shows."

Gareth Purnell is not convinced by the market's assumption that we are in for a minor goal-fest when Manchester City face Tottenham on Sunday afternoon - read on to find out why

Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur, kick off Sunday 1.30pm
Match Odds: Manchester City [1.94]; The Draw [3.85]; Tottenham Hotspur [4.3]
If I wanted to make a case for plenty of goals in this crucial Premier League encounter, it wouldn't be difficult.

Manchester City are the top scorers in the division with 57 goals in 21 games; they are top of the league, and even top of the six-match form table despite an apparent recent wobble; they have only been involved in one home game all season that has finished under the 1.5 goals line and they face a Spurs side that's playing the beautiful game and who have not played in a single away game that hasn't produced at least two goals.

Plus, when the teams met earlier in the season there were six goals, with Manchester City inflicting Tottenham's only home defeat on them and in some style too, thumping the Londoners 5-1.

But that was then and this is now and there are reasons for thinking this game could be tighter than many are expecting.

For a start there is no doubting that right now, the leaders are not quite the same force as they were earlier in the season. In fact this is easily their worst run of the season and in all competitions they have actually lost three and only won two of their last six fixtures.

And if you look just under the surface it's not that hard to work out why. Probably the biggest blow is the loss of Yaya Toure to the African Nations Cup.

Toure is the man who does the work that creates space for the mercurial David Silva to pick defences apart. Without him Silva seems much easier to keep tabs on and he looked very ineffective in their recent 1-0 defeat of Wigan and their 1-0 home loss to Liverpool in the Carling Cup. If Silva is starved of the freedom and time to pick a pass, Manchester City do not look the same attacking force and are not creating as many gilt-edged chances as they have been.

Vincent Kompany is also a big loss and he will miss this game through suspension after the ridiculous red card against Manchester United. It's never ideal to lose the leadership qualities of your established captain.

Then there's Mario Balotelli. A true Marmite player if ever there was one. Quite simply, you either love him or you hate him. I'm firmly in the former camp and I can absolutely see why Roberto Mancini puts up with him.

The man who usually replaces him, Edin Dzeko is functional. Balotelli has a touch of class and that's often what's required to unlock the top defences in the league. Unfortunately for Manchester City fans, the Italian is carrying an ankle injury and even if he plays it's debatable whether he will be able to hit top form in his first game back.

And Spurs certainly have a defence to shout about. In fact only the two Manchester clubs and Liverpool have conceded fewer Premier League goals and as the season has gone, the defence has got better and better with the number of goals against falling steadily - as the table in this article shows.

If we look at the last six games only, the period when City have been most affected by suspensions, injuries and the African Nations Cup, they have been strikingly low on goals with only eight for and one against for a game average of just 1.5 goals. And Spurs' last six have been hardly more prolific with eight goals for and only three against for an average of 1.8 goals a game.

And this is such an important fixture. Victory for City would put them eight points clear of the Londoners and some might argue that Spurs would be out of the title race. But lose this and Tottenham are only two points behind them.

This dynamic might well lead to the managers being even less gung-ho than they have been of late and a cagey start is quite likely. In fact in the Match Odds market I make the draw a big runner, and I've also been looking at the First Goal Odds market where I consider an early goal unlikely.

Half of City's home games and two thirds of Tottenham's away games have failed to produce four goals and given recent form, the player availability situation and perhaps most importantly the importance of this game to both clubs, it could pay to swim against the tide and lay over 3.5 goals in this one.

Recommended Bet
Lay over 3.5 goals at [3.2]

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Lee Dixon: Defoe can help Spurs to a point at the Etihad Stadium

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jermain Defoe doing what Jermain Defoe does best

"Spurs have a good record against City though with Opta revealing the Lilywhites have suffered just five defeats in the last 29 league matches between the two sides."

This is a huge match in the title race whichever way you look at it. Spurs are more than capable of denying Manchester City a point and keeping the title race wide open, says Lee Dixon.

With half of the season gone not many would have expected this to have been a match between two title contenders. There will be those who think that Spurs won't be able to keep going like they have been (for whatever reason) but whilst they're still within touching distance of the pace-setters, we can't rule them out. And if Spurs can't quite keep up till the bitter end, at the very least they'll have a say in who does win it as a result of their matches against Manchester City and United.

Match Odds

Managers will tell you that it's 1-0 away wins that win you leagues, not 5-0 drubbings. What they mean is that securing three points when you're not playing that well is the quality of champions. City's win at Wigan was a case in point. They created a fair few chances but there wasn't a huge amount of fluency in their passing and in the end it was a couple of really good saves from Joe Hart that secured the points. That and the fact that his players did a good job of defending their lead in a pragmatic way rather than going in search of more goals. That gameplan doesn't always work of course but on this occasion it did.

Spurs' chances of contending for the title were dealt a huge blow last Saturday with a disappointing home draw against Wolves, but those results are going to happen from time to time when you're not scoring enough goals. In recent matches they scored just one, or occasionally two, and defended very well. But if you go a goal behind you need to be able to go up a couple of gears if you want to win the league title. How many times have we seen Manchester United over the years stage comebacks after going behind?

Neither side is necessarily at their best just now though it's perfectly understandable that City are slight odds-on to win this game. Spurs have a good record against City though with Opta revealing the Lilywhites have suffered just five defeats in the last 29 league matches between the two sides. They've also lost just one of their last nine away matches - and that in controversial fashion at Stoke - and will be desperate to avenge that thrashing at the Lane earlier on in the season. My money is on the draw at [3.85].

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

A tough market to call. Spurs have kept just the one clean sheet in their last eight games away from home (Opta) so I don't think there's much chance of another against the league leaders. But it's not inconceivable that they'll concede just the one, whereas I've already touched on the fact they're not scoring too many themselves. The best way to play this is to back unders at [2.16] at the off and lay off your bet if there aren't any goals in the first 20 minutes. There may end up being three goals in the match but it may take a while for them to come.

To Score

Emmanuel Adebayor is unavailable for this match because of the terms of his loan to Spurs. That may actually not be a bad thing for Harry Redknapp. Firstly because he hasn't been in great form recently and secondly because he's a temperamental character who has been known to get a bit over-excited in matches against teams he used to play for. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/8252803.stm OK, admittedly he's still a City player, but you know what I mean. Either way, it makes Redknapp's life pretty simple when it comes to picking his striker and Jermain Defoe is almost certain to get a game at last.

There's been speculation Defoe may want to move on given that at this stage of his career he wants to be starting every week, especially with a major championship coming up in the summer. It may be just that - speculation - but Defoe obviously feels he should be playing more. This is a good chance to prove he deserves more game time for the rest of the season and there's no reason why Defoe can't go out and do what he does best. Back him to find the net at any time.

1 pt Back the draw @ [3.85]
1 pt Back-to-lay under 2.5 goals @ [2.16]
Back Jermain Defoe to score at anytime @ [4.5]

Michael Cox says:

Harry Redknapp isn't regarded as the league's most astute tactician, but he'll be well aware that Manchester City have often struggled this season against sides that defend deep before playing on the break - Napoli were a good example, as more recently, were Sunderland.

With that in mind, and without Emmanuel Adebayor, I expect Jermain Defoe to start upfront because of his pace. But I think he might be closely supported by Gareth Bale, who is increasingly playing through the middle and is therefore more of a goalscoring threat himself. Few players are as devastating on the break, so I'm surprised to see Bale at [15.0] to open the scoring.

Back Gareth Bale to be first goalscorer @ [15.0]

Gareth Purnell is not convinced by the market's assumption that we are in for a minor goal-fest when Manchester City face Tottenham on Sunday afternoon - read on to find out why...

Sir Alex Ferguson has tried various approaches at the Emirates in recent years with various degrees of success. Michael Cox ponders the recent history of the fixture and how that will shape Manchester United's tactics here....

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Premier League Previews: Goals expected at the Etihad Stadium

Premier League / Feizal Rahman / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Man City players celebrate scoring yet another goal

"With such richness of attacking resources available to manager Roberto Mancini, it is no surprise to learn that his side has averaged three goals per game in their last 10 at home."

Feizal Rahman previews three of Saturday's Premier League fixtures using the Opta stats, and believes goals will be the order of the day as Manchester City look to extend their lead at the top of the table.

Blackburn Rovers v Swansea City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Blackburn [2.24], Swansea [3.8], The Draw [3.5]

Firmly rooted to the bottom of the Premier League table, Blackburn have now gone eight games without a win, suffering five defeats since victory at home to Arsenal. That was Rovers' only maximum this term, and Opta inform us that they have lost every other game at Ewood Park.

Nine of Blackburn's league fixtures this season have seen in excess of two goals, seven of these producing four or more. Steve Kean's team have also conceded at least three goals in seven league games so far though have failed to score themselves on just three occasions.

Swansea have picked up six points from their last six in the league, suffering two defeats. However, having lost their first four away games of the season, Opta state that the Swans have drawn their last two away trips. Yet, Brendan Rodgers side have had to visit four of the current top seven teams which may account for why they have scored just four times, conceded 14, with all but two away games seeing three goals or more. Over 2.5 Goals trades at [2.02], with Over 3.5 Goals on offer at [3.6].

At home this campaign, Blackburn have been behind at the break just once and have otherwise been level after 45 minutes five times. The Half Time Draw is [2.4] with a 0-0 and 1-1 Half Time Score available at [3.2] and [8.4] respectively and the Draw/Draw HT/FT result around [5.7].

Manchester City v Norwich City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Man City [1.2], Norwich [19.0], The Draw [8.4]

Manchester City sit five points clear at the top of the Premier League table and will view this as another opportunity to assert their top flight dominance. According to Opta, City have won their last 11 home league games and have not experienced defeat since last December.

With such richness of attacking resources available to manager Roberto Mancini, it is no surprise to learn that his side has averaged three goals per game in their last 10 at home, conceding just four. Half of these 10 have seen at least four goals scored so Over 3.5 Goals may appeal at [2.1].

Norwich have picked up two wins in their last six in the league, both at home. Yet, on their travels, they have managed just one win from six and been beaten three times. The Canaries have failed to keep a single clean sheet all season, conceding two goals on average in their last five trips.

Opta reveal that the two sides last met in league competition back in February 2005 and in Manchester, the Canaries have won just once in 22 league visits - losing four of the last six. The home side are [2.3] to beat a -2.5 Goal Asian handicap.

Half of Manchester City's home games this term have been goalless at half-time, with the Citizens performing far better in the second half. The Half Time Draw is [3.4] with a 0-0 Half Time Score at [5.2] and the Draw/Man City HT/FT result around [5.4].

Queens Park Rangers v West Bromwich Albion, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: QPR [2.3], West Brom [3.5], The Draw [3.5]

After an impressive start to the campaign, QPR have faltered slightly over the autumn months with three defeats in their last four, though they have maintained a mid-table position. At home, the Hoops have only one win to their name, otherwise drawing three and losing twice.

Neil Warnock's men have managed just five goals scored in six home games whilst conceding a total of nine. There have been four red cards shown at Loftus Road this term and a Sending Off can be backed at [5.0].

A home defeat to Tottenham last Saturday was West Brom's third loss in four games and a disappointing November has undone all the team's encouraging work throughout October. On the road, Roy Hodgson's side have two wins and three losses from their six trips so far.

Opta note that QPR have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last eight league contests whilst The Baggies have managed to shut out the opposition just once in their last 25 away fixtures. Both Teams To Score could reward at [1.8], with Over 2.5 Goals likely to be popular at [2.06].

West Brom's Chris Brunt is highlighted by Opta as having scored in his last three games against QPR at Loftus Road and the attacking midfielder is [6.0] To Score. Meanwhile, Heidar Helguson has three goals in three starts at home for QPR this term and is [3.0] to similarly find the net at any time.

Recommended Bets

Blackburn v Swansea - Back Half Time Draw @ [2.2]
Man City v Norwich - Back Over 3.5 Goals @ [2.1]
QPR v West Brom - Back Both Teams To Score @ [1.8]

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