Lee Dixon: Defoe can help Spurs to a point at the Etihad Stadium

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jermain Defoe doing what Jermain Defoe does best

"Spurs have a good record against City though with Opta revealing the Lilywhites have suffered just five defeats in the last 29 league matches between the two sides."

This is a huge match in the title race whichever way you look at it. Spurs are more than capable of denying Manchester City a point and keeping the title race wide open, says Lee Dixon.

With half of the season gone not many would have expected this to have been a match between two title contenders. There will be those who think that Spurs won't be able to keep going like they have been (for whatever reason) but whilst they're still within touching distance of the pace-setters, we can't rule them out. And if Spurs can't quite keep up till the bitter end, at the very least they'll have a say in who does win it as a result of their matches against Manchester City and United.

Match Odds

Managers will tell you that it's 1-0 away wins that win you leagues, not 5-0 drubbings. What they mean is that securing three points when you're not playing that well is the quality of champions. City's win at Wigan was a case in point. They created a fair few chances but there wasn't a huge amount of fluency in their passing and in the end it was a couple of really good saves from Joe Hart that secured the points. That and the fact that his players did a good job of defending their lead in a pragmatic way rather than going in search of more goals. That gameplan doesn't always work of course but on this occasion it did.

Spurs' chances of contending for the title were dealt a huge blow last Saturday with a disappointing home draw against Wolves, but those results are going to happen from time to time when you're not scoring enough goals. In recent matches they scored just one, or occasionally two, and defended very well. But if you go a goal behind you need to be able to go up a couple of gears if you want to win the league title. How many times have we seen Manchester United over the years stage comebacks after going behind?

Neither side is necessarily at their best just now though it's perfectly understandable that City are slight odds-on to win this game. Spurs have a good record against City though with Opta revealing the Lilywhites have suffered just five defeats in the last 29 league matches between the two sides. They've also lost just one of their last nine away matches - and that in controversial fashion at Stoke - and will be desperate to avenge that thrashing at the Lane earlier on in the season. My money is on the draw at [3.85].

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

A tough market to call. Spurs have kept just the one clean sheet in their last eight games away from home (Opta) so I don't think there's much chance of another against the league leaders. But it's not inconceivable that they'll concede just the one, whereas I've already touched on the fact they're not scoring too many themselves. The best way to play this is to back unders at [2.16] at the off and lay off your bet if there aren't any goals in the first 20 minutes. There may end up being three goals in the match but it may take a while for them to come.

To Score

Emmanuel Adebayor is unavailable for this match because of the terms of his loan to Spurs. That may actually not be a bad thing for Harry Redknapp. Firstly because he hasn't been in great form recently and secondly because he's a temperamental character who has been known to get a bit over-excited in matches against teams he used to play for. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/8252803.stm OK, admittedly he's still a City player, but you know what I mean. Either way, it makes Redknapp's life pretty simple when it comes to picking his striker and Jermain Defoe is almost certain to get a game at last.

There's been speculation Defoe may want to move on given that at this stage of his career he wants to be starting every week, especially with a major championship coming up in the summer. It may be just that - speculation - but Defoe obviously feels he should be playing more. This is a good chance to prove he deserves more game time for the rest of the season and there's no reason why Defoe can't go out and do what he does best. Back him to find the net at any time.

1 pt Back the draw @ [3.85]
1 pt Back-to-lay under 2.5 goals @ [2.16]
Back Jermain Defoe to score at anytime @ [4.5]

Michael Cox says:

Harry Redknapp isn't regarded as the league's most astute tactician, but he'll be well aware that Manchester City have often struggled this season against sides that defend deep before playing on the break - Napoli were a good example, as more recently, were Sunderland.

With that in mind, and without Emmanuel Adebayor, I expect Jermain Defoe to start upfront because of his pace. But I think he might be closely supported by Gareth Bale, who is increasingly playing through the middle and is therefore more of a goalscoring threat himself. Few players are as devastating on the break, so I'm surprised to see Bale at [15.0] to open the scoring.

Back Gareth Bale to be first goalscorer @ [15.0]

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Premier League Previews: Goals expected at the Etihad Stadium

Premier League / Feizal Rahman / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Man City players celebrate scoring yet another goal

"With such richness of attacking resources available to manager Roberto Mancini, it is no surprise to learn that his side has averaged three goals per game in their last 10 at home."

Feizal Rahman previews three of Saturday's Premier League fixtures using the Opta stats, and believes goals will be the order of the day as Manchester City look to extend their lead at the top of the table.

Blackburn Rovers v Swansea City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Blackburn [2.24], Swansea [3.8], The Draw [3.5]

Firmly rooted to the bottom of the Premier League table, Blackburn have now gone eight games without a win, suffering five defeats since victory at home to Arsenal. That was Rovers' only maximum this term, and Opta inform us that they have lost every other game at Ewood Park.

Nine of Blackburn's league fixtures this season have seen in excess of two goals, seven of these producing four or more. Steve Kean's team have also conceded at least three goals in seven league games so far though have failed to score themselves on just three occasions.

Swansea have picked up six points from their last six in the league, suffering two defeats. However, having lost their first four away games of the season, Opta state that the Swans have drawn their last two away trips. Yet, Brendan Rodgers side have had to visit four of the current top seven teams which may account for why they have scored just four times, conceded 14, with all but two away games seeing three goals or more. Over 2.5 Goals trades at [2.02], with Over 3.5 Goals on offer at [3.6].

At home this campaign, Blackburn have been behind at the break just once and have otherwise been level after 45 minutes five times. The Half Time Draw is [2.4] with a 0-0 and 1-1 Half Time Score available at [3.2] and [8.4] respectively and the Draw/Draw HT/FT result around [5.7].

Manchester City v Norwich City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Man City [1.2], Norwich [19.0], The Draw [8.4]

Manchester City sit five points clear at the top of the Premier League table and will view this as another opportunity to assert their top flight dominance. According to Opta, City have won their last 11 home league games and have not experienced defeat since last December.

With such richness of attacking resources available to manager Roberto Mancini, it is no surprise to learn that his side has averaged three goals per game in their last 10 at home, conceding just four. Half of these 10 have seen at least four goals scored so Over 3.5 Goals may appeal at [2.1].

Norwich have picked up two wins in their last six in the league, both at home. Yet, on their travels, they have managed just one win from six and been beaten three times. The Canaries have failed to keep a single clean sheet all season, conceding two goals on average in their last five trips.

Opta reveal that the two sides last met in league competition back in February 2005 and in Manchester, the Canaries have won just once in 22 league visits - losing four of the last six. The home side are [2.3] to beat a -2.5 Goal Asian handicap.

Half of Manchester City's home games this term have been goalless at half-time, with the Citizens performing far better in the second half. The Half Time Draw is [3.4] with a 0-0 Half Time Score at [5.2] and the Draw/Man City HT/FT result around [5.4].

Queens Park Rangers v West Bromwich Albion, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: QPR [2.3], West Brom [3.5], The Draw [3.5]

After an impressive start to the campaign, QPR have faltered slightly over the autumn months with three defeats in their last four, though they have maintained a mid-table position. At home, the Hoops have only one win to their name, otherwise drawing three and losing twice.

Neil Warnock's men have managed just five goals scored in six home games whilst conceding a total of nine. There have been four red cards shown at Loftus Road this term and a Sending Off can be backed at [5.0].

A home defeat to Tottenham last Saturday was West Brom's third loss in four games and a disappointing November has undone all the team's encouraging work throughout October. On the road, Roy Hodgson's side have two wins and three losses from their six trips so far.

Opta note that QPR have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last eight league contests whilst The Baggies have managed to shut out the opposition just once in their last 25 away fixtures. Both Teams To Score could reward at [1.8], with Over 2.5 Goals likely to be popular at [2.06].

West Brom's Chris Brunt is highlighted by Opta as having scored in his last three games against QPR at Loftus Road and the attacking midfielder is [6.0] To Score. Meanwhile, Heidar Helguson has three goals in three starts at home for QPR this term and is [3.0] to similarly find the net at any time.

Recommended Bets

Blackburn v Swansea - Back Half Time Draw @ [2.2]
Man City v Norwich - Back Over 3.5 Goals @ [2.1]
QPR v West Brom - Back Both Teams To Score @ [1.8]

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Premier League Previews: Reebok Stadium to serve up goal-fest

Premier League / Mike Norman / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Expect goals when Bolton host Sunderland this weekend

"Don’t look for any other bets in the Bolton v Sunderland fixture, the stats suggest that Over 2.5 Goals should be available to back at around [1.6], so the fact that we can lump on at [2.0] is a gift from football heaven."

There's one outstanding bet this weekend as far as Mike Norman is concerned, and it comes in the Bolton v Sunderland game where goals should be the order of the day.

Aston Villa v West Brom, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [2.1], West Brom [4.2], The Draw [3.4]

On the plus side new Aston Villa boss Alex McLeish has overseen just one defeat in the league this season, on the negative side Villa have won just 25% of their league games under their controversially-appointed new boss. Put simply, a lot of Villa fans are still angered that ex-Birmingham manager McLeish has been put in charge and only a Midlands derby victory over West Brom will temporarily appease their disappointment.

The Baggies have also won just a quarter of their league games this term and Roy Hodgson's men face a difficult task in trying to improve that ratio in this encounter. As the Opta stats show, Albion have won just one of their 12 Midlands derbies away from home whilst Villa have lost just one of their 15 home derbies.

In addition, you have to go back nearly 30 years to find the last time West Brom won at Villa Park. A home win has to be the selection then, especially as the team news suggests they'll be at full strength, but perhaps the Goals markets offer the best opportunity to profit from this game.

Opta show that eight of the last nine meetings between these two have resulted in both teams getting on the score sheet, whilst six of those encounters finished with at least three goals being scored. Both teams to Score is available to back at [1.82], whilst the Over 2.5 Goals option looks generously priced at [2.1].

Bolton v Sunderland, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Bolton [2.26], Sunderland [3.7], The Draw [3.4]

Bolton ended a miserable run of form (six league defeats in a row) when they beat Wigan at the DW Stadium last week and now their task is to halt a horrible home run which has seen them lose six consecutive home games stretching back to last season. Alarmingly, despite some top clubs visiting the Reebok, the Trotters have conceded a staggering 15 goals in their four home defeats this term.

So perhaps the last thing Owen Coyle needs right now is a home tie against a side - Sunderland - that they have lost to on the last four occasions. The Black Cats don't have the best away record in the division, but they did beat Bolton at the Reebok at the end of last season and they will be confident of doing the same again.

Entertainment is usually guaranteed when Bolton take to the field, as Opta point out, the Trotters have the fourth best scoring record in the division as well as the worst defensive record. In fact, a total of 36 goals have been scored in the eight league games involving Bolton this season, and every one of those eight games has produced Over 2.5 Goals. Incredibly then, Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [2.0] here. Am I missing something? Seemingly not as Opta also point out that Sunderland's last five Premier League games have also resulted in at least three goals being scored.

Don't look for any other bets in this fixture, the stats suggest Over 2.5 Goals should be available to back at around [1.6], so the fact that we can lump on at [2.0] is a gift from football heaven.

Newcastle v Wigan, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Newcastle [1.6], Wigan [7.2], The Draw [4.1]

Odds of just [1.6] for a Newcastle victory, fans talking about an excellent team spirit, Mike Ashley not receiving criticism. Is this the same Newcastle that we all know and love? If the Magpies carry on the way they are going Ashley will be granted freedom of the city; they're a fickle bunch up there I can tell you.

On a serious note it's enjoyable to see Newcastle doing so well for a club that has had so much upheaval in recent years, and more importantly, hasn't spent much money this season. Contrast that to neighbours Sunderland who have spent twice as much this term and are languishing at the wrong end of the table. Early days and all that I know.

As far as this game goes I'm not prepared to back Newcastle to win at [1.6]; they may well do so, and I hope they do, but I don't believe Wigan are as bad as their league position suggests and this could be a tight game. Opta point out that Alan Pardew's men have the joint best defensive record in the division this term, and the fact that the Latics have scored just three goals in their last six league away games suggests to me that a Newcastle Clean Sheet is worth a punt at [2.3].

Opta stats also show that since 2005, six of the 11 meetings between Newcastle and Wigan have resulted in a scoreline of just 1-0. This persuade me to have a wager on the Under 1.5 Goals option at a generous looking [4.2].

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.0] in Bolton v Sunderland
Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.1] in Aston Villa v West Brom
Back Both teams to Score @ [1.82] in Aston Villa v West Brom
Back Yes to Newcastle Clean Sheet @ [2.3] v Wigan
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ [4.2] in Newcastle v Wigan

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Two And A Half Goals: Dour game expected at Stadium of Light

Two And A Half Goals / The Inside Man / 17 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

More low-scoring stuff at Sunderland?

"Most punters think of Blackpool as the free-scoring entertainers with the happy-go-lucky manager who lit-up last year’s Premier League, but that’s simply no longer the case. Set-piece master Charlie Adam and goal-getter D.J.Campbell have moved on to pastures new and as a result only two of Blackpool’s games this season have gone over two goals."

Four games from the English divisions are previewed and analysed for their worthiness in the Over/under 2.5 goals betting...

Saturday
Torquay v Rotherham
Goals look a certainty for this clash between two teams in the top half of League Two.

Torquay boss Martin Ling claims his side are as good as anybody in the division and bemoans that his team have ended with too many draws (four) in their eight games this season. This kind of talk suggests he wants much better than their current sixth place in the table.

To turn draws into wins though, Torquay will need to become more offensive. This is great news for fans, who've already seen their home games averaging a massive three and a half goals so far.

In terms of goal action though, Torquay must doff their caps to today's visitors. Second-placed Rotherham come with betting satisfaction almost guaranteed, somehow averaging almost four goals per game on the road. Indeed the only time they failed to go over the mark was last week's 1-1 draw at Accrington Stanley, which included goal-line clearances and misses-galore.

The price on offer for three or more goals is simply huge. Don't miss out!

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ [1.8]

Blackpool v Cardiff
In betting, as in life, we're often told to trust our instincts. Be aware though that on occasions your instincts can lead you up the garden path.

Most punters think of Blackpool as the free-scoring entertainers with the happy-go-lucky manager who lit-up last year's Premier League, but that's simply no longer the case. Set-piece master Charlie Adam and goal-getter D.J.Campbell have moved on to pastures new and as a result only two of Blackpool's games this season have gone over two goals.

It's a similar story for Cardiff. They no longer have their most able striker from last year, Craig Bellamy. The Welsh side have similarly seen only two of their six games go over the two goal mark.

These sides lie next to each other, in sixth and seventh place in the table. With their identical win-loss records and identical goal-difference, there's no reason to think this encounter between two promotion rivals should be anything but tight...and so we won't.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.94]

Sunday
Southampton v Birmingham
With five victories from six games, Southampton have continued where they left-off last season, by defeating just about every team in their path. This has come as little surprise to many football fans, with Saints showing even last season that they are a side with huge momentum that could take them all the way to the Premier League.

That momentum has been achieved with a real style, which means Southampton are quickly becoming the new Blackpool in terms of entertainment. The 23 goals scored in their opening six games says it all. Whichever way you look at the stats, be it home form, away form, or recent results, Saints are always a banker for goals.

Meanwhile Birmingham are unrecognisable since losing Alex McLeish as manager. Gone is the dour, defensive mindset, replaced instead by Chris Hughton's much more positive approach. This is illustrated by the fact that five of Birmingham's six games this season, including all of their away games, have gone over 2.5 goals. Expect this match to be no different.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ [1.84]

Sunderland v Stoke
This is a simple case of two teams who struggle to score but know how to keep things tight.

In Stoke's case, tight means water-tight, as shown by their heroic defensive display to hang-on for a 1-0 win against Liverpool last week. Tony Pulis's men have faced two sides with legitimate title hopes in the shape of Kenny Dalglish's men and Chelsea, and two who are likely to be at the wrong end of the table in Norwich and West Brom. Yet it's made no difference to their results which read four goals, four games, two goals for, two against. It's machine-like and effective, but no good if you're betting on goals.

Sunderland have proved similarly unreliable for goals, with just six scored in their opening four matches. Importantly though, the level of their opposition does seem to make a difference. Games against Chelsea and Liverpool produced five of those six goals, while matches against Swansea and Newcastle yielded just one.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.63]

The Inside Man makes four weekend selections with a strong emphasis on the Premier League......

The Inside Man turns his attentions to English and Scottish domestic football over the weekend in search of the best bets in the ever-popular over/under 2.5 goals markets on Betfair....

Neil Harvey talks us through four European games where backing either Under or Over 2.5 Goals looks an appealing option....

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