Gareth's Good Thing: Why Aston Villa won't lose at Wigan

Premier League / Gareth Purnell / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Roberto Martinez could have been Aston Villa manager in the summer

"Roberto Martinez is a man with a great managerial future ahead of him but his team looks in real trouble again and perhaps he should have moved to Villa in the summer."

Gareth Purnell is normally against Aston Villa, but on Saturday he is fully behind them and expects them to get at least a point against Wigan. Here, he tells us why...

Wigan v Aston Villa, Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00, Match Odds: Wigan [2.86], Aston Villa [2.72], The Draw [3.4]

Aston Villa have been one of my 'go to' teams to lay this season. They have been particularly poor at home and apart from a surprise 3-1 win at (a let's face it) pretty shambolic Chelsea, they have struggled to beat anyone above them in the league either home or away.

So it's perhaps a little surprising that I want to get the right side of them this weekend. Bear with me, because there is some method to my apparent madness.

For a start, the Midlanders' home record contrasts with their away form, which is actually pretty good. Villa have only actually lost three games away from Villa Park all season, at Spurs, Manchester City and Newcastle. Alex Mcleish's charges have admittedly drawn a lot of away games, but that's fine - a draw is a winner for us.

And closer inspection reveals that when Villa have taken on teams flirting with relegation, they have generally come away with something. In fact four of their six wins have come against Bolton, Blackburn, Wolves and Saturday's opponents Wigan Athletic... in other words the bottom four.

Villa have also showed some improved cutting edge since the turn of the year. Some of that has undoubtedly been down to Robbie Keane, who has now gone back to the States, adding a touch of quality to the forward play. But it also coincided with the return to fitness and form of key striker Darren Bent, and of Marc Albrighton, who has great delivery from out wide.

Bent and Albrighton should be partnered on Saturday by Gabi Agbonlahor. He's hardly a man to put your mortgage on, but what he has got is great pace, which perfectly suits Villa's counter attacking style away for home, and he has a good record against Wigan.

And what of the Latics? I've said before what an admirer of manager Roberto Martinez I am. I love the way he sets his teams up to play what I call proper football. Martinez is a man with a great managerial future ahead of him but his team looks in real trouble again and perhaps he should have moved to Villa in the summer - I think that would have been good for both parties.

The problem is that he doesn't really have the squad to play the type of football he likes, and they always look like conceding to me. In fact they have only kept one clean sheet in their last 22 matches at this level. And he has to be mighty worried about his team's home form. Wigan have not won any of their last ten matches at the DW Stadium and that is relegation form.

Villa have lost only one of their last seven Premier League games against Wigan and only one of their last six away this season. Clearly their style is more suited to soaking up pressure and breaking with speed, than having to force the pace themselves.

At the price and given all of the above, I make Wigan a solid lay at under 2-1 in the Match Odds market.

Recommended Bet: Lay Wigan at [2.9]

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Gareth's Good Thing: Goals may be in short supply at the Etihad

Premier League / Gareth Purnell / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

David Silva is not such a destructive force without Yaya Toure

"Only the two Manchester clubs and Liverpool have conceded fewer Premier League goals and as the season has gone, the defence has got better and better with the number of goals against falling steadily - as the table in this article shows."

Gareth Purnell is not convinced by the market's assumption that we are in for a minor goal-fest when Manchester City face Tottenham on Sunday afternoon - read on to find out why

Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur, kick off Sunday 1.30pm
Match Odds: Manchester City [1.94]; The Draw [3.85]; Tottenham Hotspur [4.3]
If I wanted to make a case for plenty of goals in this crucial Premier League encounter, it wouldn't be difficult.

Manchester City are the top scorers in the division with 57 goals in 21 games; they are top of the league, and even top of the six-match form table despite an apparent recent wobble; they have only been involved in one home game all season that has finished under the 1.5 goals line and they face a Spurs side that's playing the beautiful game and who have not played in a single away game that hasn't produced at least two goals.

Plus, when the teams met earlier in the season there were six goals, with Manchester City inflicting Tottenham's only home defeat on them and in some style too, thumping the Londoners 5-1.

But that was then and this is now and there are reasons for thinking this game could be tighter than many are expecting.

For a start there is no doubting that right now, the leaders are not quite the same force as they were earlier in the season. In fact this is easily their worst run of the season and in all competitions they have actually lost three and only won two of their last six fixtures.

And if you look just under the surface it's not that hard to work out why. Probably the biggest blow is the loss of Yaya Toure to the African Nations Cup.

Toure is the man who does the work that creates space for the mercurial David Silva to pick defences apart. Without him Silva seems much easier to keep tabs on and he looked very ineffective in their recent 1-0 defeat of Wigan and their 1-0 home loss to Liverpool in the Carling Cup. If Silva is starved of the freedom and time to pick a pass, Manchester City do not look the same attacking force and are not creating as many gilt-edged chances as they have been.

Vincent Kompany is also a big loss and he will miss this game through suspension after the ridiculous red card against Manchester United. It's never ideal to lose the leadership qualities of your established captain.

Then there's Mario Balotelli. A true Marmite player if ever there was one. Quite simply, you either love him or you hate him. I'm firmly in the former camp and I can absolutely see why Roberto Mancini puts up with him.

The man who usually replaces him, Edin Dzeko is functional. Balotelli has a touch of class and that's often what's required to unlock the top defences in the league. Unfortunately for Manchester City fans, the Italian is carrying an ankle injury and even if he plays it's debatable whether he will be able to hit top form in his first game back.

And Spurs certainly have a defence to shout about. In fact only the two Manchester clubs and Liverpool have conceded fewer Premier League goals and as the season has gone, the defence has got better and better with the number of goals against falling steadily - as the table in this article shows.

If we look at the last six games only, the period when City have been most affected by suspensions, injuries and the African Nations Cup, they have been strikingly low on goals with only eight for and one against for a game average of just 1.5 goals. And Spurs' last six have been hardly more prolific with eight goals for and only three against for an average of 1.8 goals a game.

And this is such an important fixture. Victory for City would put them eight points clear of the Londoners and some might argue that Spurs would be out of the title race. But lose this and Tottenham are only two points behind them.

This dynamic might well lead to the managers being even less gung-ho than they have been of late and a cagey start is quite likely. In fact in the Match Odds market I make the draw a big runner, and I've also been looking at the First Goal Odds market where I consider an early goal unlikely.

Half of City's home games and two thirds of Tottenham's away games have failed to produce four goals and given recent form, the player availability situation and perhaps most importantly the importance of this game to both clubs, it could pay to swim against the tide and lay over 3.5 goals in this one.

Recommended Bet
Lay over 3.5 goals at [3.2]

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