Aston Villa v Liverpool: Spoils to be shared in entertaining match

"Away from Anfield Liverpool have won just four Premier League games this season, losing five and drawing six."

Back the draw @ 4.03/1

Paul Robinson looks ahead at Easter Sunday's lunchtime kick off between the struggling Aston Villa and the inconsistent Liverpool...

Aston Villa v Liverpool  
Sunday March 31, 13.30 GMT
Live on Sky Sports One

Aston Villa have managed to haul themselves out of the relegation zone thanks to back to back wins against fellow strugglers Reading and QPR. They now sit in 17th, three points clear of Wigan, but they have played a game more and have an inferior goal difference. 

Paul Lambert's side also beat West Ham back in February and while they have lost two of their last five, the defeats came at Arsenal and at home to Manchester City. Those losses were only by one goal margins and despite conceding two against QPR last time, the defence has tightened up a bit in recent weeks.

Christian Benteke is of course the main man for Villa, scoring in four of his last five at Villa Park. He didn't manage to find the net in either of Belgium's two games against Macedonia though and that concerns me slightly. His success on Sunday could depend on the inclusion of Jamie Carragher, or to be more precise, the exclusion of Martin Skrtel.

Liverpool's player of the season last year has been terrible under Brendan Rodgers and has finally been axed for the veteran Carragher. The Slovak defender seems more concerned with wrestling his man than clearing the ball and he has been at fault for a number of goals this season. Carragher may be very much past his best, but he still does the basics well and the whole defence seems more assured with him cajoling and organising them throughout the 90 minutes.

The Reds have been largely inconsistent of late - convincing wins or desperate defeats. It was the latter last time out at Southampton as Brendan Rodgers picked the wrong side from the off and was made to pay. The former Swansea manager started with Gerrard and Allen as the holding midfielders, even though it's been proven time after time that those two don't work together in that position as they don't protect the back four well enough. That is essential when deploying full backs who are encouraged to get forward and one of Lucas Leiva or Jordan Henderson need to be in the team.

Away from Anfield Liverpool have won just four Premier League games this season, losing five and drawing six. The victories did come at Norwich, West Ham, QPR and Wigan though, so it could be argued that they've become flat track bullies as Southampton are the only team in the bottom nine that they've lost to.

This match seems very hard to call but I wouldn't want to be backing Liverpool at 1.794/5 given their inconsistent nature. Of course they could go on to thrash Villa and I'd look silly, but they seem too short in the market. The home side can be backed at 5.04/1 and there could be some mileage in that as they will start the game full of confidence given recent wins and the fact they won 3-1 at Anfield back in December.

I'm more interested in the draw though at the prices. It can be backed at 4.03/1 and I like it because Paul Lambert would probably take a point from this fixture and Liverpool have drawn 40% of their away matches this season. 

Over 2.5 goals is currently trading at around the 1.748/11 mark but I'd much rather back 'Yes' in the Both Teams To Score Market at the same price as Liverpool have conceded nine in their last five away from Anfield while scoring at least once themselves in each of the last nine.

As for a correct score, I think you can't go far wrong in backing both 1-1 and 2-2 at 9.08/1 and 17.016/1 respectively. Not only do they seem overpriced to me, they should both be good to trade if that's your kind of thing.

Recommended Bets
Back the draw @ 4.03/1  
Back 'Yes' in BTTS Market @ 1.748/11
Back 1-1 @ 9.08/1  
Back 2-2 @ 17.016/1  

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Aston Villa v Liverpool - Cashback Special!

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Place a pre-match Sportsbook bet on Aston Villa v Liverpool (Live on Sky Sports 1, Sunday 13:30) on the First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer or Correct Score markets and if Luis Suarez scores last and the first bet you place loses, we'll refund your stake, up to £/€50!

Paul Lambert has won all three of his Premier League meetings against Brendan Rogers, so the Villa boss will be confident his side can do the double over Liverpool this season. For Rogers though, defeat is not an option, as his Liverpool side look to stay within touching distance of a Champions League spot and give their star striker Luis Suarez something to stick around for.

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Opta Stats: Aston Villa v Liverpool

"Christian Benteke has scored eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances, and he netted twice against Liverpool earlier this season. Benteke is 2.915/8 to score."

Aston Villa must win their home games to ensure their safety, but face a Liverpool side aiming for Europe. Who will want it more? Opta reveals all.

Aston Villa have lost just one of their last four Premier League games against Liverpool and won 3-1 away at Anfield earlier this season. You can lay Liverpool at 1.758/11.

Paul Lambert has won all three of his Premier League games against Brendan Rodgers; against no other manager has he secured as many wins. Villa are 5.24/1 to win the match.

Steven Gerrard has scored 10 Premier League goals against Aston Villa; more than against any other opponent. Gerrard is 2.89/5 to find the net.

Gerrard has played every single minute (2700) of Liverpool's Premier League season so far - Matt Lowton (Aston Villa) and Leighton Baines (Everton) are the only other outfield players to have achieved this in 2012-13. The England international is 8.415/2 to score the first goal.

Christian Benteke has scored eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances, and he netted twice against Liverpool earlier this season. Benteke is 2.915/8 to score.

Benteke has scored 11 and assisted three of Aston Villa's last 21 Premier League goals. The Belgian is 7.613/2 to score first.

Luis Suárez has scored 11 goals in his last 11 Premier League appearances. Suarez is 1.910/11 to add to his tally.

Andreas Weimann has scored two and assisted two in his last four Premier League appearances. Weimann is 3.814/5 to find the net.

Aston Villa have not won three successive Premier League matches since April 2010. Liverpool are 1.748/11 to inflict a defeat on the Villains.

Aston Villa have seen their opposition hit the woodwork on five occasions in total in their last four Premier League games. Villa are 6.611/2 to keep a clean sheet.

Luis Suárez has embarked on 249 dribbles in the Premier League this season; 105 more than any other player. Suarez is 5.39/2 to open the scoring.

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Cross-Sport Multiple: Villa have momentum to stop Reds

"Both teams are creating and leaking plenty of goals, so this could be a high-scoring game, but Villa have the momentum and can earn a useful point."

Andrew Hughes thinks Aston Villa can earn a draw against Liverpool and help land a Sunday cross-sport multiple in the process.

Betfair now gives you the facility to mix and match your multiples across a huge range of sports and markets with the easy-to-use betslip and so each weekend I've been putting together a cross-sport treble with the aim of showing the way to maximise your profits.

Bet 1: Back Aston Villa to draw with Liverpool at 3.814/5

Liverpool can't afford too many more slip-ups if they want to secure European football next season. They haven't been great away from home this season, but all their wins have come against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, and on paper, they have too much ability for a Villa side still mired in a relegation battle. 

But after a torrid start to 2013, Villa have begun to show some fight with crucial victories over Reading and QPR. They also have a good record against Liverpool, having won three of their last seven encounters, including a 3-1 victory at Anfield earlier this season. Both teams are creating and leaking plenty of goals, so this could be a high-scoring game, but Villa have the momentum and can earn a useful point.

Bet 2: London Irish to beat Sale Sharks at 1.282/7

After their disastrous start to the season, Sale have been in better form in 2013, winning three of their last five. The points deduction suffered by London Welsh has helped the Sharks' cause and they are five points clear of the bottom spot in the Aviva Premiership. They will be hoping to extend their run against the team immediately above them, against whom they recorded their first victory of the campaign, 21-9, back in November

But the Sharks haven't been that impressive away from home this season, their only win being a narrow 26-25 success against London Welsh. And they are up against a side in equally good form on Sunday. London Irish have won four of their last six and  haven't lost at home this year. More significantly, the Sharks haven't beaten the Exiles at the Madjeski since 2006. Back London Irish to take the points. 

Bet 3: Back Andy Murray to beat David Ferrer at 1.330/100

Sunday's final of the Sony Open is between the third and fifth-ranked players in the world, and a win for Andy Murray would move him up to second, ahead of Roger Federer. But if he is to win the tournament for the second time, he will need to improve on his showing against Richard Gasquet in the semi-final, where he dropped the first set thanks to a string of unforced errors. 

On the plus side, his record against his final opponent, David Ferrer is good. Ferrer, who also had to come from a set down in his semi-final, against Novak Djokovic's conqueror, Tommy Haas, has won five of his eleven matches against Murray, but four of those wins have come on clay. On hard courts, Murray has a commanding 5-1 lead against the man who is six years his senior. 

Ferrer won't make it easy for the Scotsman and the final is likely to go to three sets, but Murray has won eight of the eleven Masters finals he has contested, and he is a solid bet to pick up another big prize on Sunday.  

Total Odds for this multiple: 6.47n/a Remember, multiple prices are based on our Fixed
Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

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Premier League Previews: Villa and Chelsea to share the spoils

Premier League / Feizal Rahman / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Aston Villa boss Alex McLeish

"Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions throughout March compared to Villa’s three and such exertion from the West Londoners may well be about to catch up with them, despite some squad rotation."

Chelsea have played almost three times as many games as Aston Villa in the month of March and that could be a factor in deciding the outcome this weekend says Feizal Rahman, with the draw his recommended bet.

Aston Villa v Chelsea, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [4.9], Chelsea [1.88], The Draw [3.7]

Villa continue to show the sort of regressive form that has left them three places above the drop zone. Alex McLeish's side have managed just two victories in 2012, with four draws and four losses. The Claret and Blue have six defeats in their last ten at Villa Park, with just one win in eight.

Under the lead of Roberto Di Matteo, Chelsea have progressed in the FA Cup and Champions League. However, in the league, Opta state that they have only two wins from nine and, on the road, they have lost their last three and picked up maximum points just once since the turn of the year.

Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions throughout March compared to Villa's three and such exertion from the West Londoners may well be about to catch up with them, despite some squad rotation. The Blues will also not be encouraged by a poor record against Villa recently.

Opta note that Chelsea have won just once in their last 12 visits to Villa Park, otherwise losing four and drawing seven. Consequently, Chelsea look a lay at [1.88] in the Match Odds market with more appeal about the [3.7] on offer for the Draw.

Villa have struck just five times in their last eight at home, however, Chelsea have found the net only twice in their last five away games. Under 2.5 Goals should attract at [1.85] with a 0-0 and 1-1 Correct Score available at [12.0] and [8.0] respectively.

Everton v West Bromwich Albion, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Everton [1.9], West Brom [4.7], The Draw [3.7]

Everton have finally kicked into gear after their traditional slow start to the season and the Blue half of Merseyside are now just two points off neighbours, Liverpool - who they will go on to play in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley next month.

Back-to-back away wins in the league and cup will boost the confidence of David Moyes' men who have suffered just two league defeats in their last 10. A loss to Arsenal ended a run of three straight victories at Goodison Park, each over sides in the top five.

Having previously won three on the spin themselves, West Brom have picked up just a point from their most recent three in the league. However, Opta state that Roy Hodgson's side have suffered only two losses in the last nine away trips. Yet, Everton have won three of the five Premier League meetings between the two at Goodison with West Brom's sole victory coming in November 2010.

The Baggies have failed to score in just four of their 15 away games so far this season. However, the Toffeemen remain stingy at home and - as Opta reveal - they have conceded only once in their last four, with 10 of the last 12 fixtures at Goodison producing two goals or fewer.

Everton should get back to winning ways and are [1.9] for the victory. Under 2.5 Goals looks reasonably priced at [1.94] but Under 1.5 Goals could appeal more at [3.7] , with a 1-0 Correct Score on offer at [8.6].

Fulham v Norwich City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Fulham [1.75], Norwich [5.4], The Draw [4.0]

Fulham have lost their last three games, failing to score in each, as Opta inform us. Yet, the solid home record of Martin Jol's men has kept them out of trouble and ahead of a 3-0 defeat to Swansea last time out, they had six wins from eight at Craven Cottage, with a whopping 18 goals scored.

Inconsistency has been Norwich's problem all season, only able to put together a short run of point-winning form before a string of defeats. Away from home, the Canaries have three losses from their last four though were undefeated in their four prior to that.

According to Opta, Norwich's record against Fulham will offer them scant hope with not a single win in nine meetings since 1986. Three of the last four trips to Craven Cottage have resulted in defeat, the most recent a 6-0 hiding seven years ago.

Fulham should be good for the win at [1.75], while Over 2.5 Goals looks a safe bet at [1.8] with just one of the last seven at Craven Cottage failing to deliver at least three goals. Yet, the West Londoners have led at the break just four times all season so it may pay to back the Half Time Draw at [2.4].

Meanwhile, Clint Dempsey has nine goals on home turf this term while on-loan Pavel Pogrebnyak - who has indicated a desire to stay on at Fulham - has four strikes from three starts at the Cottage. The duo are [2.7] and [2.5] to score respectively.

Recommended Bets:

Aston Villa v Chelsea - Back The Draw @ [3.7]
Everton v West Brom - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.94]
Fulham v Norwich - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.8]

Will the two Wanderers return goals in the crunch bottom-of-the-table clash on Saturday at Molineux? Gareth Purnell thinks there may be value in betting that they will.......

Manchester City and Arsenal are amongst the clubs playing on Saturday afternoon, but it's the price of Bolton to beat out-of-form Wolves that has got Mike Norman really excited....

Newcastle are closing in on a top-six finish and if they harbour ambitions of building on their success, they're in for an eventful summer......

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Gareth's Good Thing: Why Aston Villa won't lose at Wigan

Premier League / Gareth Purnell / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Roberto Martinez could have been Aston Villa manager in the summer

"Roberto Martinez is a man with a great managerial future ahead of him but his team looks in real trouble again and perhaps he should have moved to Villa in the summer."

Gareth Purnell is normally against Aston Villa, but on Saturday he is fully behind them and expects them to get at least a point against Wigan. Here, he tells us why...

Wigan v Aston Villa, Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00, Match Odds: Wigan [2.86], Aston Villa [2.72], The Draw [3.4]

Aston Villa have been one of my 'go to' teams to lay this season. They have been particularly poor at home and apart from a surprise 3-1 win at (a let's face it) pretty shambolic Chelsea, they have struggled to beat anyone above them in the league either home or away.

So it's perhaps a little surprising that I want to get the right side of them this weekend. Bear with me, because there is some method to my apparent madness.

For a start, the Midlanders' home record contrasts with their away form, which is actually pretty good. Villa have only actually lost three games away from Villa Park all season, at Spurs, Manchester City and Newcastle. Alex Mcleish's charges have admittedly drawn a lot of away games, but that's fine - a draw is a winner for us.

And closer inspection reveals that when Villa have taken on teams flirting with relegation, they have generally come away with something. In fact four of their six wins have come against Bolton, Blackburn, Wolves and Saturday's opponents Wigan Athletic... in other words the bottom four.

Villa have also showed some improved cutting edge since the turn of the year. Some of that has undoubtedly been down to Robbie Keane, who has now gone back to the States, adding a touch of quality to the forward play. But it also coincided with the return to fitness and form of key striker Darren Bent, and of Marc Albrighton, who has great delivery from out wide.

Bent and Albrighton should be partnered on Saturday by Gabi Agbonlahor. He's hardly a man to put your mortgage on, but what he has got is great pace, which perfectly suits Villa's counter attacking style away for home, and he has a good record against Wigan.

And what of the Latics? I've said before what an admirer of manager Roberto Martinez I am. I love the way he sets his teams up to play what I call proper football. Martinez is a man with a great managerial future ahead of him but his team looks in real trouble again and perhaps he should have moved to Villa in the summer - I think that would have been good for both parties.

The problem is that he doesn't really have the squad to play the type of football he likes, and they always look like conceding to me. In fact they have only kept one clean sheet in their last 22 matches at this level. And he has to be mighty worried about his team's home form. Wigan have not won any of their last ten matches at the DW Stadium and that is relegation form.

Villa have lost only one of their last seven Premier League games against Wigan and only one of their last six away this season. Clearly their style is more suited to soaking up pressure and breaking with speed, than having to force the pace themselves.

At the price and given all of the above, I make Wigan a solid lay at under 2-1 in the Match Odds market.

Recommended Bet: Lay Wigan at [2.9]

Wolves have met their deadline to hire a new manager before Saturday's trip to Newcastle, but the appointment has done little to calm relegation fears......

A case could be made for all three outcomes in this match so the draw is the call at an attractive price. One thing is for sure: there will be no shortage of goals, says Lee Dixon....

High-flying Manchester City play hosts to a struggling Blackburn side and it's extremely unlikely that we're going to have an upset on the cards here. Expect a City win and plenty of goals, says Lee Dixon....

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Opta Stats: Aston Villa v Manchester City

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 08 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Sergio Aguero has scored 15 goals in his first Premier League campaign

Aston Villa don't win at home, while Manchester City haven't been winning on the road of late, so something has to give at Villa Park on Sunday...

Aston Villa have won only one of the last six Premier League games against Man City (W1 D1 L4).

Darren Bent has scored seven goals in 12 Premier League games against Man City; only against Bolton (11) has he netted more often.

Villa have won two and lost none of the last four home games against Man City.

Manchester City have won just one of their last six Premier League away games (W1 D2 L3).

In that six game run, Roberto Mancini's side have scored just three goals.

If Villa don't win this match, it will be their longest run of home games without a win in Premier League history (7) and just one short of their top-flight worst mark of eight games set in March 1921.

David Silva has more Premier League assists than any other player in the Premier League (12).

Aston Villa are the only team yet to score a Premier League goal from a corner, but have conceded from them a league-high 10.

Manchester City have scored the most goals from corners (11).

79% of the goals that Man City have conceded have been in the second half, a league high proportion.

Wolves head into Sunday's Black Country derby on a high, but the statistics suggest that they will do well to claim victory over neighbours West Brom......

Two of the most impressive teams in the country this season meet on Saturday teatime looking to continue their unlikely respective title and top-four charges......

The Premier League's overachieving newcomers collide, with Swansea's magnificent home record giving them a clear edge......

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Opta Stats: Newcastle v Aston Villa

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 02 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Newcastle should have Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse available for this game

Aston Villa were humiliated on their last visit to Tyneside, but will have an opportunity to claim revenge in front of the cameras on Sunday lunchtime...

Alex McLeish has won none and lost three of his five matches as a Premier League coach against Newcastle.

This fixture ended 6-0 to the Magpies last season

Aston Villa have lost just two of their last 12 Premier League away games (W4 D6 L2) and none of the last five (W3 D2).

None of the last nine Premier League meetings between Newcastle and Aston Villa have been away wins.

Newcastle have lost just two of their last 15 Premier League home matches (W8 D5 L2).

Aston Villa have recovered more points from losing positions than any other team in the top flight (11).

Villa have conceded 55% of their goals in the first half, a league-high proportion.

Darren Bent has score in four of his last five Premier League appearances and now has 100 Premier League goals.

Aston Villa are the only team in the Premier League without a goal from a corner this season.

Aston Villa have conceded more goals from corners than any other team in the top flight this season (10).

Liverpool have hit form recently and are even able to welcome Luis Suarez back on Monday night - will they halt Tottenham's title bid?...

Chelsea's home record hasn't been great this season, however after tripping up leaders Manchester City in December, they will be hopeful of causing Manchester United trouble......

Fulham have been a bit of a bogey team for Manchester City in recent seasons - will they be the ones to end the Premier League leaders' perfect home record?...

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Lee Dixon: Manchester United to sort their house out at the Villa

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Rooney should feature up front for Manchester United again on Saturday

"Sir Alex will be expecting a reaction from his players and a much-improved performance after what’s happened in the last week or so and I think he’s going to get one. United should win this."

After a tricky week with indifferent results in three different competitions, Manchester United should return to winning ways when they travel to Villa Park, a venue that has proved to be a happy hunting ground in recent years...

It's been a poor week by Manchester United's standards.

I've praised Newcastle's performance at Old Trafford in my preview of their match against Chelsea already. But whichever way you look at it, that was a match United really should have won if they're going to successfully defend their title. The shock Carling Cup defeat to Crystal Palace was a different story of course because only a couple of the players who started that would possibly feature in Sir Alex's strongest XI. It suggests that maybe there isn't as much talent in reserve at Old Trafford as there has been in yesteryear but that's for him to worry about another day. Let's just focus on this Aston Villa match for the time being.

Match Odds

Aston Villa started the season well and were undefeated for a while but even in those early weeks there were very obvious signs of where their problems lay. They can grind out 0-0 and 1-1 draws with the best of them but don't really have another gear to turn to if they go behind. They're solid and resilient but at times perhaps also lack a little ambition. Seven draws from 13 matches backs that theory up.

Villa Park has been a happy hunting ground for Manchester United over the years. Opta tell us that Man Utd have won 11 times at Villa Park in the Premier League and that only at Everton (14 wins) have they come away with three points more often from an opponent's ground.

Sir Alex will be expecting a reaction from his players and a much-improved performance after what's happened in the last week or so and I think he's going to get one. United should win this.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Gabriel Agbonlahor has been in super form this season, scoring goals, creating chances, running at defenders. Darren Bent has just done what Darren Bent does. Five goals from 12 starts without ever putting in a particularly eye-catching performance. But beyond these two there doesn't seem to be much in the way of attacking threats, either from midfield or on the bench. It's in attack that Alex McCleish needs to start looking for new players in the January transfer window.

United have defended better in the league recently whilst not scoring freely themselves so 'unders' looks a good bet at [1.96].

To Score

After adopting a 'horses for courses' approach and playing Wayne Rooney in midfield for a couple of matches last month, Sir Alex restored the former Everton man to his attack on Saturday against Newcastle.

The goals have dried up recently for Rooney but he'll enjoy running at the two Aston Villa centre-backs who have plenty in terms of strength and aerial ability but far less in terms of pace. I fancy Rooney to re-discover his scoring boots on Saturday afternoon.

2 pts Back Manchester United to win @ [1.77]
2pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.96]
1pt Back Wayne Rooney to score @ [2.3]

Feizal Rahman previews three of Saturday's Premier League fixtures using the Opta stats, and believes goals will be the order of the day as Manchester City look to extend their lead at the top of the table....

Forget the hype, reputation and star names in Chelsea's line-up. It is Newcastle who are at home, look the more organised side and are carrying the greater momentum, says Lee Dixon....

Gareth Purnell can't make any case for Aston Villa beating Manchester United on Saturday and believes a lay on the home side is a banker selection....

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Opta Stats: Manchester City v Aston Villa

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gabriel Agbonlahor has outshone Darren Bent at Aston Villa this season

Judging by these Opta trends, Gabriel Agbonlahor could be on the scoresheet and in the referee's notepad at the Etihad Stadium this weekend...

Gabriel Agbonlahor has scored in four of his last six Premier League appearances.

Agbonlahor has been booked in all three of his Premier League away appearances this season.

Aston Villa have posted the joint-worst shooting accuracy in the top flight, hitting the target with just 35% of their attempts.

Manchester City have scored more goals from outside the box than any other team this season (7).

Samir Nasri leads the Premier League with six goal assists this season.

The Villans have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League games (W6 D8 L1).

Manchester City have taken 28 from a possible 30 points in their last 10 Premier League matches and kept seven clean sheets in that run.

The Citizens have also won 12 and lost none of their last 13 Premier League home games, a run that started with a 4-0 win over Aston Villa, keeping 10 clean sheets.

Villa have won just four of their last 23 Premier League away games (W4 D8 L11), a run which started with a 1-3 defeat against Manchester City.

However, the Villans have lost just one of their last seven Premier League away games (W2 D4 L1) and are unbeaten in the last four.

Newcastle's stingy defence meets Tottenham's prolific attack on Sunday. Here's Opta's take on how that battle will unfold......

The Opta trends indicate that Arsenal will begin climbing the table with three points against Sunderland on Sunday, but don't expect a big scoreline......

The first few minutes could prove decisive in Sunday's grudge match at The Hawthorns, with the Baggies frequently flying out of the blocks of late......

Everton have a fine recent record against Chelsea, who have been uncharacteristically leaky at the back. Could there be a shock at Stamford Bridge?...

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Premier League Talking Point: Villa for the drop?

Premier League / Richard Aikman / 20 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gerard Houllier's team could well be dragged into the relegation reckoning

"Blackpool can’t defend for toffee and have mustered just five points from their last six matches, but how can they be [2.28] to get relegated when Villa – against whom they drew 1-1 recently – are [8.2]?"

The number of teams who are still unable to take their Premier League status for granted is a testament to the drama of the top flight, says Richard Aikman. Could a long odds candidate yet be be dragged into the relegation reckoning?

If the Premier League is not the best league in Europe in terms of quality it is certainly one of the most compelling. There are few championships in which the big guns can so regularly be toppled by the sides battling against relegation and in which, with eight games to go, over half of the division is still not technically safe from the drop.

Wolves were bottom of the league when they ended Manchester United's unbeaten record last month and they are still third from bottom despite collecting 11 points from their last six matches. In fact, it seems that no matter how well Wolves play there seems to be a force-field keeping them penned back in the bottom three. They can, however, take comfort from the trust of Betfair punters, who believe Mick McCarthy's men - at [3.25] to go down - will stay up.

West Bromwich Albion, meanwhile, have mustered seven points in the same timeframe, are unbeaten under Roy Hodgson and came within a whisker of completing the double over Arsenal yesterday. Yet the Baggies are hovering just a point above the trapdoor and rated even more likely relegation fodder than their Midlands rivals [3.05].

Despite beating Birmingham 2-1 on Saturday, and finding themselves within three points of 13th-placed Blackburn Rovers, rock-bottom Wigan are odds-on [1.45] to be playing Championship football next season, with the Blues [2.76] set for both the Europa League and the English second-tier next season.

Birmingham have been unfortunate with injuries of late. The loss of James McFadden and Scott Dann has hit them particularly hard this season but few tears will be shed outside of England's second city if the Blues do take a tumble. They are, at times, unwatchable. The purchase of Nikola Zigic tells you everything you need to know about Alex McLeish's gameplan, which largely consists of packing the midfield with warhorses and hoping for the big Serb or a central defender to get on the end of a set-piece. ESPN's interview with Alexander Hleb earlier this season was a telling insight into how desperate he was finding the football at St Andrews' ("Our game is kick and rush and fight and this is not the game I like. It's difficult, sometimes you don't take the ball for five minutes because... [looks up at imaginary long balls going to and fro overhead]."

McLeish's approach is in marked contrast to Ian Holloway's and, if there is any justice in this game, Blackpool will be around to entertain us again next season. But justice and football are seldom the best of bedfellows, as evidenced by Blackburn Rovers' last-gasp equaliser at Ewood Park, courtesy of a hail mary into the penalty area, a poor clearance and a deflected header into the net. The Seasiders, like Rovers, West Brom and Aston Villa have 33 points from 30 matches and yet they are rated the side most likely to go down [2.28] after Wigan.

Admittedly, Blackpool can't defend for toffee and have mustered just five points from their last six matches, but how can they be [2.28] to get relegated when Villa - against whom they drew 1-1 recently - are [8.2]? Part of the reason Blackpool have struggled recently is because their standout player this season, Charlie Adam, missed the Wolves and Chelsea matches through suspension, while DJ Campbell - who had scored seven goals in 11 matches before getting sent off at Molineux - has also been sorely missed.

Furthermore Blackpool have five home matches left to play and they will surely get points against Wigan, Newcastle and Stoke. In fact, you couldn't rule out a result against the Gunners based on the way are playing just now.

Villa, meanwhile, seem to have escaped most people's relegation reckoning because they are, well, Aston Villa. Apparently, they have enough established names (Darren Bent, Stewart Downing, Ashley Young) to get them out of trouble. But if that were the case they wouldn't be where they are now, would they? Gerard Houllier's side have managed just one win and a draw from their last six matches in all competitions and lost their last three matches in succession.

Houllier took a gamble by essentially forfeiting their FA Cup fifth round stage and it has backfired. Admittedly, the Frenchman has had injuries to contend with and the City and Bolton reverses were hardly unexpected, but the crowd have now turned on a side whose January signings Jean Makoun, Kyle Walker and Darren Bent need time to adapt. But time is running out.

With the exception of their next match - Everton away - and their last two - Arsenal (away), Liverpool (home), Villa have a relatively benign run-in on paper. But they will be playing against sides who are themselves scrapping for survival (Newcastle, West Ham, Stoke, West Brom and Wigan). Should they lose to an improving Everton side on April 2, which I wouldn't bet against, four successive defeats would exacerbate an already fragile mental environment at the club, where reports of in-fighting between coaches and players has been the only mark of consistency.

January signings make the difference as Chelsea and Liverpool continue their excellent form with wins over Manchester City and Sunderland respectively......

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Feizal Rahman selects the best bets as the richest clubs in England go head to head. Top Stat: Manchester City are unbeaten in their last eight league visits to the capital...

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Midweek Internationals Results: Villa pair save England's Danish bacon

Internationals / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Villa trio. Ashley Young and Darren Bent celebrate as Stewart Downing looks on.

"In truth it was a match with few chances and a few big names missing but beating the five-time World Champions is always a big scalp and those who backed Les Bleus to do so at a high of 3.7 will have enjoyed the French victory."

England secured a good win away to Denmark whilst France beat Brazil and Lionel Messi once again got the better of Cristiano Ronaldo.

England secured a decent win against a Denmark side who have made themselves pretty hard to beat these days. All three goalscorers were Premier League-based players, Liverpool's Daniel Agger opening the scoring before Aston Villa's Darren Bent equalised; Bent's Villa team-mate Ashley Young scored the winner in England's 2-1 win.

England were matched at [4.9] In-Play when going 1-0 down and at [11.0] to win by 2-1. Former Sunderland man Bent was matched at [4.9] to score at anytime.

In one of the three most glamorous games of the evening France hosted and beat Brazil, who had a man sent off just before half-time. In truth it was a match with few chances and a few big names missing but beating the five-time World Champions is always a big scalp and those who backed Les Bleus to do so at a high of [3.7] will have enjoyed the French victory.

Another mouth-watering match was Portugal against Argentina, or Lionel Messi against Cristiano Ronaldo as it was described in some places, so it was fitting that both players scored. The Real Madrid striker was matched at a high of [4.0] to score at anytime whilst Lionel Messi scored from the spot with virtually the last kick of the game. Ronaldo's Real team-mate Angel Di Maria scored Argentina's other goal. The final 2-1 scoreline was backed at [11.0].

Elsewhere Germany and Italy also drew one apiece and the Netherlands got the better of Austria.

In the Carling Cup Of Nations Scotland got off to the best possible start by beating Northern Ireland 3-0.

England secured a good win away to Denmark whilst France beat Brazil and Lionel Messi once again got the better of Cristiano Ronaldo....

There will be the inevitable questions being asked ahead of this match such as "why bother playing friendlies" but that's not for us to worry about. In his usual heartless, emotion-free, value-means-everything approach, Jamie Pacheco searches for the best bets....

Scotland take on Northern Ireland in the second of the Carling Nations Cup fixtures at the Aviva Stadium. Jaymes Monte reports......

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