Aston Villa v Liverpool: Spoils to be shared in entertaining match

"Away from Anfield Liverpool have won just four Premier League games this season, losing five and drawing six."

Back the draw @ 4.03/1

Paul Robinson looks ahead at Easter Sunday's lunchtime kick off between the struggling Aston Villa and the inconsistent Liverpool...

Aston Villa v Liverpool  
Sunday March 31, 13.30 GMT
Live on Sky Sports One

Aston Villa have managed to haul themselves out of the relegation zone thanks to back to back wins against fellow strugglers Reading and QPR. They now sit in 17th, three points clear of Wigan, but they have played a game more and have an inferior goal difference. 

Paul Lambert's side also beat West Ham back in February and while they have lost two of their last five, the defeats came at Arsenal and at home to Manchester City. Those losses were only by one goal margins and despite conceding two against QPR last time, the defence has tightened up a bit in recent weeks.

Christian Benteke is of course the main man for Villa, scoring in four of his last five at Villa Park. He didn't manage to find the net in either of Belgium's two games against Macedonia though and that concerns me slightly. His success on Sunday could depend on the inclusion of Jamie Carragher, or to be more precise, the exclusion of Martin Skrtel.

Liverpool's player of the season last year has been terrible under Brendan Rodgers and has finally been axed for the veteran Carragher. The Slovak defender seems more concerned with wrestling his man than clearing the ball and he has been at fault for a number of goals this season. Carragher may be very much past his best, but he still does the basics well and the whole defence seems more assured with him cajoling and organising them throughout the 90 minutes.

The Reds have been largely inconsistent of late - convincing wins or desperate defeats. It was the latter last time out at Southampton as Brendan Rodgers picked the wrong side from the off and was made to pay. The former Swansea manager started with Gerrard and Allen as the holding midfielders, even though it's been proven time after time that those two don't work together in that position as they don't protect the back four well enough. That is essential when deploying full backs who are encouraged to get forward and one of Lucas Leiva or Jordan Henderson need to be in the team.

Away from Anfield Liverpool have won just four Premier League games this season, losing five and drawing six. The victories did come at Norwich, West Ham, QPR and Wigan though, so it could be argued that they've become flat track bullies as Southampton are the only team in the bottom nine that they've lost to.

This match seems very hard to call but I wouldn't want to be backing Liverpool at 1.794/5 given their inconsistent nature. Of course they could go on to thrash Villa and I'd look silly, but they seem too short in the market. The home side can be backed at 5.04/1 and there could be some mileage in that as they will start the game full of confidence given recent wins and the fact they won 3-1 at Anfield back in December.

I'm more interested in the draw though at the prices. It can be backed at 4.03/1 and I like it because Paul Lambert would probably take a point from this fixture and Liverpool have drawn 40% of their away matches this season. 

Over 2.5 goals is currently trading at around the 1.748/11 mark but I'd much rather back 'Yes' in the Both Teams To Score Market at the same price as Liverpool have conceded nine in their last five away from Anfield while scoring at least once themselves in each of the last nine.

As for a correct score, I think you can't go far wrong in backing both 1-1 and 2-2 at 9.08/1 and 17.016/1 respectively. Not only do they seem overpriced to me, they should both be good to trade if that's your kind of thing.

Recommended Bets
Back the draw @ 4.03/1  
Back 'Yes' in BTTS Market @ 1.748/11
Back 1-1 @ 9.08/1  
Back 2-2 @ 17.016/1  

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Grosser Preis von Baden Result: Danedream lands the spoils

Last year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe heroine Danedream followed-up her King George success with victory at Baden-Baden...

The four-year-old, who ran to a Timeform rating of 131 when winning at Longchamp last October, faced some stiff opposition from the likes of Deutsches Derby winner Pastorius and Novellist, but she was more than up to the task as she recorded her third victory of the year.

In a tactical affair which did not really take shape until the field entered the straight, Danedream swung wide and came to the stands-side rail, powering home to follow-up her win in the King George at Ascot, where she beat Nathaniel by a nose, in good style.

A defence of her Arc crown now looks on the cards, for which she can be backed at 7.87/1. Epsom Derby hero Camelot currently heads the market at 5.04/1, with Nathaniel, Ofevre and Masterstroke also prominent.

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Turkish Racing Festival: British raiders look to land the spoils

Master of Hounds has joined William Haggas after a fruitful campaign in Dubai over the winter, a win in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta being the highlight...

Entries for the International Racing Festival, taking place at Veliefendi on September 1 and 2, have been made, featuring a number of British raiders...

Six races during the Turkish Racing Festival, a quintet of Group 2 events and one Group 1, look to be of most interest at this stage, with British runners entered in all but two of them.

The Group 2 Anatolia Trophy, staged over ten furlongs and won last year by the Mark Johnston-trained Dordogne, has attracted the attention of a pair of smart performers this year in Master of Hounds and Zazou. The former has joined William Haggas after a fruitful campaign in Dubai over the winter, a win in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta being the highlight, and he looks set to continue his globetrotting career by participating here.

Zazou finished fifth in the Dubai World Cup, three places ahead of Master of Hounds, and last month achieved third place at Munich behind Pastorius, the winner producing the second best performance by a three-year-old seen this year.

Other entries to catch the eye in this contest are the Marco Botti-trained pair, Kingsdesire and Marcret, and the Godolphin trio Hunter's Light, Retrieve and Sandagiyr.

Sandagiyr also holds an entry in the Group 2 Topkapi Trophy, where he could be joined by Godolphin teammates Dysphonia and French Navy. Mark Johnston could well hold a strong hand in this event, potentially being represented by Bannock, Fulbright and Van Ellis, whilst the entry of Archbishop, who dead-heated with Trumpet Major in a Group 3 at Glorious Goodwood, is also of note.

The aforementioned Dysphonia, a listed winner in Australia who hasn't brought her "A-Game" on her two most recent starts, could alternatively compete in the Group 2 Istanbul Trophy. She may face the likes of Laugh Out Loud, who is best judged on her win in the Group 2 Prix de Sandringham on her penultimate start, and Beatrice Aurore, who had been holding her form well this year prior to getting loose before that start at Ascot last time. Survey, a Group winner in her native Germany, is also worth a second look despite being well below form in the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood last time, as she probably did too much too soon there.

The Group 2 Bosphorus Cup, a race dominated by the British last year with Indian Days winning, Campanologist second, Afsare fourth and Halicarnassus fifth, could well play out in similar fashion this time around, with the Brits responsible for seven of the 12 entries. Headlining the act is Dubai Prince, who recently put up a career-best when winning the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York, finally living up to the promise that he had shown earlier in his career in the process.

Retrieve also holds an entry in this event, as do Calvado Blues and Lost In The Moment. Looking to gatecrash the Godolphin party is Sense of Purpose, from the Dermot Weld yard, and Inspector, who is trained in Turkey and has run in this race for the last four years, winning in 2008 before finishing sixth, eighth and eighth.

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Premier League Previews: Villa and Chelsea to share the spoils

Premier League / Feizal Rahman / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Aston Villa boss Alex McLeish

"Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions throughout March compared to Villa’s three and such exertion from the West Londoners may well be about to catch up with them, despite some squad rotation."

Chelsea have played almost three times as many games as Aston Villa in the month of March and that could be a factor in deciding the outcome this weekend says Feizal Rahman, with the draw his recommended bet.

Aston Villa v Chelsea, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [4.9], Chelsea [1.88], The Draw [3.7]

Villa continue to show the sort of regressive form that has left them three places above the drop zone. Alex McLeish's side have managed just two victories in 2012, with four draws and four losses. The Claret and Blue have six defeats in their last ten at Villa Park, with just one win in eight.

Under the lead of Roberto Di Matteo, Chelsea have progressed in the FA Cup and Champions League. However, in the league, Opta state that they have only two wins from nine and, on the road, they have lost their last three and picked up maximum points just once since the turn of the year.

Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions throughout March compared to Villa's three and such exertion from the West Londoners may well be about to catch up with them, despite some squad rotation. The Blues will also not be encouraged by a poor record against Villa recently.

Opta note that Chelsea have won just once in their last 12 visits to Villa Park, otherwise losing four and drawing seven. Consequently, Chelsea look a lay at [1.88] in the Match Odds market with more appeal about the [3.7] on offer for the Draw.

Villa have struck just five times in their last eight at home, however, Chelsea have found the net only twice in their last five away games. Under 2.5 Goals should attract at [1.85] with a 0-0 and 1-1 Correct Score available at [12.0] and [8.0] respectively.

Everton v West Bromwich Albion, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Everton [1.9], West Brom [4.7], The Draw [3.7]

Everton have finally kicked into gear after their traditional slow start to the season and the Blue half of Merseyside are now just two points off neighbours, Liverpool - who they will go on to play in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley next month.

Back-to-back away wins in the league and cup will boost the confidence of David Moyes' men who have suffered just two league defeats in their last 10. A loss to Arsenal ended a run of three straight victories at Goodison Park, each over sides in the top five.

Having previously won three on the spin themselves, West Brom have picked up just a point from their most recent three in the league. However, Opta state that Roy Hodgson's side have suffered only two losses in the last nine away trips. Yet, Everton have won three of the five Premier League meetings between the two at Goodison with West Brom's sole victory coming in November 2010.

The Baggies have failed to score in just four of their 15 away games so far this season. However, the Toffeemen remain stingy at home and - as Opta reveal - they have conceded only once in their last four, with 10 of the last 12 fixtures at Goodison producing two goals or fewer.

Everton should get back to winning ways and are [1.9] for the victory. Under 2.5 Goals looks reasonably priced at [1.94] but Under 1.5 Goals could appeal more at [3.7] , with a 1-0 Correct Score on offer at [8.6].

Fulham v Norwich City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Fulham [1.75], Norwich [5.4], The Draw [4.0]

Fulham have lost their last three games, failing to score in each, as Opta inform us. Yet, the solid home record of Martin Jol's men has kept them out of trouble and ahead of a 3-0 defeat to Swansea last time out, they had six wins from eight at Craven Cottage, with a whopping 18 goals scored.

Inconsistency has been Norwich's problem all season, only able to put together a short run of point-winning form before a string of defeats. Away from home, the Canaries have three losses from their last four though were undefeated in their four prior to that.

According to Opta, Norwich's record against Fulham will offer them scant hope with not a single win in nine meetings since 1986. Three of the last four trips to Craven Cottage have resulted in defeat, the most recent a 6-0 hiding seven years ago.

Fulham should be good for the win at [1.75], while Over 2.5 Goals looks a safe bet at [1.8] with just one of the last seven at Craven Cottage failing to deliver at least three goals. Yet, the West Londoners have led at the break just four times all season so it may pay to back the Half Time Draw at [2.4].

Meanwhile, Clint Dempsey has nine goals on home turf this term while on-loan Pavel Pogrebnyak - who has indicated a desire to stay on at Fulham - has four strikes from three starts at the Cottage. The duo are [2.7] and [2.5] to score respectively.

Recommended Bets:

Aston Villa v Chelsea - Back The Draw @ [3.7]
Everton v West Brom - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.94]
Fulham v Norwich - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.8]

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League Two Betting: Oxford and Swindon to share the spoils

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

James Constable wasn't keen on moving to Oxford's rivals Swindon

"On form, the leaders would tinker as only Paolo Di Canio seems to know best – it keeps the players on their toes - and their quality would shine through. But Oxford also have strength in depth, Scott Rendell and Medhi Kerrouche competing for places."

Ian Lamont picks the best bets from League Two this weekend, including why table-toppers Swindon and promotion-chasers Oxford will both probably be happy to settle for a draw.

Accrington [2.42] Port Vale [3.1] draw [3.35]

Odds-makers are often slow to catch up with form trends. Often, that has applied to Accrington. But the picture has changed after John Coleman's departure. Under him, odds-against meant time to back Stanley, odds-on time to lay off. Not any more. They are in freefall. Paul Cook's time could be short, if the board lose patience and Stanley slip towards being the relegation cannon fodder the pre-season pundits always wanted them to be. For this game, the odds haven't caught up with Port Vale's good form. Accrington lost their last home game 4-0 to Plymouth - and have failed to score in six of their last seven. Micky Adams' men have steamed up the table, unbeaten in six with 14 points. Thus there is little reason to make the hosts favourites. The respective victory prices should be swapped, in my book. Another strike for 11-goal top scorer Marc Richards is overdue. Vale can win despite administration pending, because their fine form has come amid a swirl of rumours of difficulties.

Back Port Vale to win at Accrington @ a huge [3.1]

Plymouth [2.62] Gillingham [2.82] draw [3.4]

Plymouth, for all their changes and new-found battling verve as they battle the drop, don't score enough to build a convincing case they could actually beat a Gillingham. A side who are performing below par and who had to come back from 4-2 down to beat a poor Hereford side 5-4. The fact they did so - with Hereford missing a penalty to go 5-4 up themselves - tells you more about Hereford's defending, fragile confidence and lack winning habit than indicating the Gills' ability to come from behind. They would find it more difficult to do so if they went a goal down at Home Park, where Argyle have only been beaten by Swindon and Torquay in their last 12 home games. Carl Fletcher's men have spirit. The hosts may not win, but this represents a chance of a positive result. Therefore the draw appeals if you find Gillingham too long to lay.

Back Under 2.5 goals and the draw at [3.4]

Oxford [3.1] Swindon [2.42] Draw [3.35] (noon kick-off)

Swindon have extended their club record to 10 straight wins. Where will it end? Derby rivalry has a habit of upsetting form and James Constable's refusal to contemplate a move to Oxford's Wiltshire rivals adds spice. Poor Michael Duberry can't do anything right - scoring a third own goal in a month on Tuesday. On form, the leaders would tinker as only Paolo Di Canio seems to know best - it keeps the players on their toes - and their quality would shine through. But Oxford also have strength in depth, Scott Rendell and Medhi Kerrouche competing for places. Despite the fact the Swindon loanee won't be eligible and Jon-Paul Pittman is unlikely to be rushed back from a hamstring injury, Oxford simply won't want to lose the momentum of five wins and seven draws in the last 13.

Back the draw at [3.35]

Aldershot [2.1] Morecambe [3.85] Draw [3.45]

As a tipster, there's nothing worse than feeling your team won't win. But it's my gut feeling Aldershot are layable. Five straight wins they may have, while conceding just twice. Guy Madjo seems in great touch. I'd be delighted if Dean Holdsworth's men could prove me wrong and continue to narrow the gap to an unlikely play-off charge. The manager's shake-up has undoubtedly worked.

The backline is looking solid. There is much to like. But my hunch - which doesn't mean I think they will lose, just that one of the other two results seems more likely, particularly the draw - is based on Morecambe's away record - just three away defeats. After a great start to the season, Jim Bentley men made their expected fall, but have rallied. The last time they lost away was at the turn of the year. They attack particularly well down the left, through Kevin Ellison, with Jason Price, Danny Carlton and youngster Jordan Burrow battling hard for attacking spots. Poor home form should not distract from fine form on the road.

Lay Aldershot at home to Morecambe at [2.1]

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Four matches in League Two to look at and some bets to allow you to profit from them via the keyboard of Ian Lamont. Including why Swindon should pick up another three points....

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Weekend Review: Nacarat lands the Kempton spoils again

News / Timeform / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nacarat regained the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton.

"The grey, who was also successful in 2009 and has finished in the placings on two other occasions, looked as good as ever on Saturday, running to a Timeform rating only 1 lb inferior to his career-best."

Timeform review a weekend featuring a win for Nacarat in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton alongside a whole host of Cheltenham pointers...

The Tom George-trained Nacarat added to his fantastic record in the three-mile handicap when beating Hector's Choice by 11 lengths. The grey, who was also successful in 2009 and has finished in the placings on two other occasions, looked as good as ever on Saturday, running to a Timeform rating only 1 lb inferior to his career-best. His trainer has stated that a defence of his Aintree Bowl crown is his target, and with him having a good record there and likely to be granted good ground, who's to say he can't follow up.

The Triumph Hurdle market took on a more defined shape on Saturday and, with the defeat of Minsk and his subsequent removal from the picture owing to a throat infection, it was left to Baby Mix and Grumeti to highlight their claims.

The former made a deeply promising British debut, comfortably beating Hinterland at Cheltenham, but disappointed back at that venue last month when failing to settle and looking awkward under pressure. However, he got back on track in winning the Adonis with just about as good a performance as has been seen in a juvenile hurdle this winter, jumping well and quickening decisively. The quirks shown on his penultimate start were again shown to some extent though and they'd be the main concern with regard to his Festival prospects.

Grumeti landed the Grade 2 Dovecote Hurdle later on the card, a race more slowly run than the earlier contest and resulting in a victory more about style than substance. His jumping was very slick and his acceleration impressive, his experience clearly an advantage against a pair of hurdling newcomers.

Grumeti is right up with the pick of the four-year-old hurdlers and merits serious consideration for the Triumph, presently heading the market at [6.2], whilst Baby Mix can be backed at [8.0].

Another name to bear in mind for the future is the Paul Nicholls-trained Dodging Bullets, runner-up to Grumeti on what was his hurdling debut. He was useful on the Flat, beating subsequent Grade 1 winning hurdler Hisaabaat on his last start, and made a highly promising start to life over timber. Given his inexperience he may now head to Aintree rather than Cheltenham, and he looks sure to win good races.

Cristal Bonus, also trained by Paul Nicholls, landed the Grade 2 Pendil Novices' Chase in impressive style, beating Duke of Lucca by 13 lengths. It is disappointing that his two main market rivals, Zaynar and Minella Class, failed to complete, somewhat weakening the form, but Cristal Bonus has certainly made a bright start over fences with his jumping looking fluent both on Saturday and when winning at Chepstow last month.

He has a host of Cheltenham entries, including the Arkle and the RSA, but the betting would suggest that the Jewson is his most likely target with him currently second-best in the market at [6.6].

The remarkably progressive Hunt Ball continued his upward curve when successful for the sixth time in his last seven races, winning of a BHA mark of 127 having begun his winning sequence on a mark of just 69. His progress shows no signs of abating and he will warrant respect in valuable handicaps from now on, currently heading the Byrne Group Plate market at [11.5].

Newcastle's feature event was the Eider Chase, with the 2012 renewal going the way of Portrait King, trained in Ireland by Maurice Phelan. The seven-year-old was successful at Punchestown on his previous outing, looking one to follow in marathon handicaps, and he duly confirmed that impression when beating Posh Bird by three lengths.

A final mention on Saturday goes to Aldermoor, who won a competitive Sprint Series Final at Lingfield. The participants had all been putting up good displays in the various rounds of the series, meaning there is every reason for the form tp prove solid, but it was Aldermoor that sealed the win in a first-time visor for trainer Stuart Williams.

Moving on to Sunday, which saw Fontwell host the Grade 2 National Spirit hurdle over two and a half miles. Trainer Colin Tizzard has been in excellent form of late, going at a 24% strike rate this month, and Third Intention bolstered that statistic when landing the feature. The five-year-old was not seen to best effect in the Betfair Hurdle, held-up in a slowly run race, but the step up in trip and the first-time tongue-tie may have been the catalyst for improvement.

Barbers Shop, prominent in the betting for the Gold Cup in 2009 and Ryanair in 2010, continued his resurgence in hunter chases at Fontwell, having previously won on his debut in the sphere at Fakenham. Seeing him travel and jump with enthusiasm again is a definite positive and, although he was pushed to within half a length by runner-up Merry Vic, he is still prominent in the Foxhunter Chase betting at [15.5].

Union Rags, and arguably unlucky runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November, got his three-year-old campaign off to a winning start when comfortably landing the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park in North America. Clearly impressive in victory, he now heads the market for the Kentucky Derby at [4.2].

There was excellent racing in Ireland over the weekend, at Fairyhouse on Saturday and Naas on Sunday. Prince de Beauchene cemented his position at the head of the Grand National betting, with Seabass also highlighting his claims for that race, whilst Rathlin and Felix Yonger were also impressive in victory.

....................
Timeform ratings are in fine form! Among 5 top-rated winners at Kempton on Saturday was Nacarat (BSP [5.58]). Click HERE for today's cards & ratings.

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Vlad Spoils Belgian's Party

Poker News / Matthew Pitt / 28 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Geshkenbein captures the EPT Snowfest title

At the start of the fifth and final day of play (six if you include the two Day 1s) all the talk surrounding the European Poker Tour Snowfest final table was the fact there were three Belgian nationals out of the eight players, all with a great chance of becoming the very first Belgian EPT Champion.

By the time play had some to an end, some ten hours after it had begun, the Belgian's were forgotten and it was Russian Vladimir Geshkenbein who was being held aloft by his army of fans in scenes that would not look out of place at a football match back in his homeland of Russian (though he was raised in Switzerland and now resides in Malta.)

Geshkenbein, known as "Beyne" when he is plying his trade online, managed to turn his 30,000 starting stack into a field leading 235,000 during Day 1b and manage to keep this massive stack all the way to the final table, where he started fourth out of eight, with a stack of 1,678,000. Whilst the majority of the final table were content with drinking water, fruit juices and energy drinks, Geshkenbein sat down with a vodka and lemon with a small stuffed monkey and donning a snakeskin cowboy hat and he continued to drink throughout the day and night of the final table!

The Russian, famed for his extremely loose-aggressive style, saw his stack fluctuate wildly but once he had all but eliminated Cristian Dragomir when five handed he never looked back. In that particular hand the flop read Jd-2d-6h and Geshkenbein check-raised Dragomir's 255,000 bet all in. After almost five minutes Dragomir called and turned over 8s8d and was up against the KhTh of Geshkenbein. The eights stayed in front as the 4s fell on the turn but the 9h was one of Geshkenbein's outs and it left his Romanian opponent, who was once berated by Phil Hellmuth at the WSOP, with less than two big blind.

That hand gave Geshkenbein over 5,000,000 chips and the ammunition to make life very difficult for his opponents, who were having a hard time putting him on a hand at any point of the tournament. He got extremely lucky in a hand with fourth place finisher Giacomo Maisto when he found himself calling an all in bet with Qd4d on a 9s-8c-Qc flop to find himself up against QsTc. The 2s on the turn kept him behind but the 4h on the river was the three outer he was looking for.

Half hour later and he called a 20 big blind shove from Koen De Visscher, one of the two Belgian's in the top three, with JsJc, which held against Ac7c to set up a heads up encounter with Kevin Vandersmissen, a very takented player who was superb from start to finish in this tournament. Heads-up only last a few hands, much to the disappointment of the rail who were expecting an epic encounter. In the final hand Geshkenbein raised, Vandermissen three-bet then called when the Russian moved all-in. Geshkenbein held a less than stellar Ah9d but it was still ahead of the KdTs of his Belgian opponent. The flop came down As-9h-8d, almost locking the hand up for Geshkenbein but even he looked worried when the turn brought the Ks into play. However, any thoughts of a major suckout were soon dismissed as the river came down 5s to deny Belgium their first-ever EPT Champion, though Vandersmissen did pick up €260,000 for his efforts over the week.

The €390,000 Geshkenbein picked up represents the largest cash of his career, his previous best being his first live cash when he won the 2009 APPT Macau High Roller event for $266,705 after beating Johnny Chan heads up. He may not be a household name just yet but his skills and personality in this particular event would make me think that there is much more to come from this young man in the future. Mark my words!

Final table payouts

1st place: Vladimir Geshkenbein - €390,000
2nd place: Kevin Vandersmissen - €260,000
3rd place: Koen De Visscher - €147,000
4th place: Giacomo Maisto - €100,000
5th place: Cristian Dragomir - €81,000
6th place: Philip Meulyzer - €65,000
7th place: Denis Murphy - €49,000
8th place: Morten Mortensen - €35,000

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Quirky character can land the spoils

Timeform Radio Tip / Terry Norman / 02 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Numide get the better of a good field today?

"Numide is proven over the 20 furlong trip, ground is not an issue and this represents an ease in class."

Terry Norman has a pair to follow today

Numide has been well handled by Rod Millman and can gain another victory in the competitive 2m4f handicap hurdle at Bangor (15:50).

This quirky eight-year-old finished an excellent second to Ciceron in a hot race at Taunton from 7lb out of the handicap. Happily for punters the son of Highest Honour runs off his original mark of 125 here before he is due to go up to 130 on Saturday.

Numide is proven over the 20 furlong trip, ground is not an issue and this represents an ease in class. There are, however, plenty with chances; most notably Devotion To Duty.
Lucinda Russell's horses are in better shape now and five-year-old was a runaway winner at Mussleburgh.

He is, however, now off a career-high 122 as is Nortonthorpe Lad, runaway winner at Newton Abbot.

The prize money doesn't do justice to the quality of the event and Numide will appreciate the likely decent pace set by down-in-grade Drill Sergeant, who comes with serious stamina doubts.

Finding a second selection was not easy and a tentative vote is given to Khanivorous in the 17:30 at Wolverhampton, a handicap over 7f.

The angle here is that Jim Boyle's runner is back over 7f furlongs on Polytrack.
A third on the Fibresand at Southwell followed a third over a mile at Kempton. But the best performance from Khanivorous was his another third, this time to Highland Quaich over this trip at the Sudbury circuit.

The inconsistent Striker Torres is likely to set a hot pace and it could fall into place for the selection off a mark that he has been competitive off.

Recommended Bets:
Back Numide @ [3.9] in the 15:50 Bangor
Back Khanivorous @ [9.8] in the 17:30 Wolves

Terry Norman has a pair to follow today...

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The Championship Betting: Top two to share the spoils

Championship / Andrew French / 10 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Hull striker Matty Fryatt is in decent form at present

"Forest have drawn three times in seven games away to teams in the top half – and QPR have seen three of seven home games against top-half teams finish all square."

Sunday's live Championship action is a television treat as league leaders QPR host in-from Nottm Forest, and our man Andrew French believes the game will be drawn.

Hull v Preston

There was a time when Hull were the Championship equivalent of watching paint dry. They still are a long way from being the consummate entertainers at home - but the recent signs are that the goals are finally starting to flow following a clutch of attack-minded signings. And the visit of lowly Preston is the ideal opportunity to improve upon their 0.86 goals per game average at home. The Tigers cracked in five at struggling Scunthorpe last week, while their last home game with Leeds ended 2-2: the second time in the last four fixtures at the KC Stadium when backers of Over 2.5 Goals would have been collecting. Clearly, the arrival of the likes of Matty Fryatt (six goals in six games since joining on from Leicester) and Aaron Mclean has pepped up the Tigers attack. There should be plenty of opportunity for more goals against North End, who have not kept a clean sheet away from home all season. However, they have managed to find the net in four of their last six on the road - hence backing Overs appeals.

Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.0]

Derby v Leicester

As recently as late November, Derby were fourth in the table with a push for promotion looking very possible. Less than three months later, and the Rams have tumbled to 17th on the back of a run of eight defeats in their last 11 games. They also suffered the ignominy of going out of the FA Cup to non-league Crawley - and they have not won at home in five outings. Therefore, Saturday teatime's live game seems the perfect opportunity for Leicester to continue their impressive rise up the table under Sven Goran Eriksson. The Foxes' recent form is in stark contrast to their hosts: unbeaten in their last six in the league, five of which they have won. The loan signing of Yakubu has added significantly to the Foxes' attacking strength, but the more important signing may have been big defender Sol Bamba from Hibs: Leicester's excellent league form coincided with his arrival, and he has already scored three times in six appearances. It's also worth noting that four of Derby's six home defeats have come against top 10 teams.

Back Leicester at [2.12] to beat Derby

QPR v Nottm Forest

This looks a really intriguing live game on Sunday - the most in-form team visiting the side that has headed the table virtually all season. Forest have been slow burners this season: as low as 19th in the table at the start of the campaign, they are unbeaten in nine - winning their last six - and are now second, seven points behind Rangers but with a couple of games in hand. This could well be the top two at the end of the season. Forest have drawn three times in seven games away to teams in the top half - and QPR have seen three of seven home games against top-half teams finish all square. I think this will be another tight affair, and I would not put you off backing either 0-0 ([9.8]) and/or 1-1 ([7.4]) in the Correct Score market if you want odds a bit bigger than the 3.4 on offer for the draw.

Back The Draw at [3.4]

Sunday's live Championship action is a television treat as league leaders QPR host in-from Nottm Forest, and our man Andrew French believes the game will be drawn....

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