Lee Dixon: Struggling sides to share the points at Ewood Park

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Luis Suarez rues yet another missed chance, the story of Liverpool's season

"I don’t think this will be a goalless draw because I’m not sure either defence is good enough to keep a clean sheet. A Blackburn one is a rare sight indeed at Ewood Park with Opta telling us Steve Kean’s men have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League games."

Two teams who have seriously under-achieved this campaign meet on Tueday night and it's hard to pick a winner. The draw is over-priced anyway so it makes sense to think a share of the spoils is on the cards, says Lee Dixon.

A match between two sides who really need a win for very different reasons. Blackburn were extremely poor at the weekend and let indiscipline get the better of them both in terms of poor defending and a late red card. As for Liverpool, by hook or by crook, they need to start winning league matches.

Match Odds

You could almost blindly lay Liverpool for every Premier League match they're involved in. They continue to be under-priced both home and away and the odds on offer about them winning games are based solely on reputation and some of the names in that squad. Ten days ago we took a huge price on Newcastle to beat them and they duly obliged in a game they pretty much dominated throughout.

You can probably see where I'm going with this! I simply can't have Liverpool at [2.16] to win a tricky away game against a side fighting for their lives. Ewood Park is a tough place to go and we saw how much Manchester United struggled to break them down last Monday.

The defending champions needed a moment of brilliance from Antonio Valencia and a late second from Ashley Young to put the game to bed and the way the United players celebrated at the end was a good indication of just how tough it was for them.

A few weeks ago I thought the goals of Yakubu would save Blackburn from the drop but he's been a bit quiet over the last few games and they really need him to start firing. He actually seems to save his best for the bigger games so I wouldn't be too surprised if he does a good job of leading the line against a Liverpool defence who seems a shadow of the stingy one that started the season so well.

I think Blackburn are over-priced at [3.9] but the stats don't lie. Opta tell us Rovers have won just two of the last 26 Premier League games against Liverpool so they obviously struggle for some reason against them. But having watched how dogged they were against Manchester United and having said Liverpol were far too short, that means there's definitely value in the draw price at [3.6]

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I don't think this will be a goalless draw because I'm not sure either defence is good enough to keep a clean sheet. A Blackburn one is a rare sight indeed at Ewood Park with Opta telling us Steve Kean's men have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League games.

But neither side is exactly prolific either and in Liverpool's case a clue for that may be in the fact they keep hitting the frame of the goal rather the goal itself. As Opta reveal: the Reds have hit the woodwork 28 times this season. If all their woodwork strikes (and the oppositions') had gone in, they'd be 13 points better off. Other reasons include the fact that no-one has made a good fist of giving Luis Suarez good support and the fact the service to the Uruguyan has often been poor.

1-1 would be my idea of a scoreline but under [2.5] goals is probably the best way to play this.

Bookings Odds

Don't underestimate the importance of such things as the time when a match is played. Night matches can often create a more electric atmosphere, certainly more so than those 12:45 kick-offs we see these days because of TV scheduling. A night game is also more likely to have dew on the grass and that leads to the ball zipping around nicely but also the odd mist-timed tackle.

It's the teams who are playing poorly who often get players booked and let's face it, not many sides in the division are struggling as much as these two.

Frustration boils over because you're not executing game-plans or individuals aren't doing things with the ball that they know they're capable of in training.

This match has the makings of a fiery contest and we should get at least five bookings so nine points and above at around [2.6] appeals.

2pts Back the draw @ [3.6]
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ [2.04]
1 pt Back nine points and above in the bookings odds market @ [2.6]

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IPL Betting: Can your predictions win you a share of £250?

Indian Premier League - IPL / Andrew French / 03 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Shilpa Shetty knows her IPL - but do you?

The 2012 Indian Premier League gets underway tomorrow - and there is a prize pot of £250 up for grabs in the Betfair Community IPL competition.

Taking part is simple: there are nine different predictions to be made in part one of the competition, including Highest Team Score, Highest Individual Score and Highest Successful Run Chase.

Then, in part two, entrants are asked to select a batsman and bowler who will then score points for them for runs/wickets during the IPL.

Lastly, as a tie-breaker, you will be asked to predict the total number of sixes hit during the tournament.

Entry is free, but you must have a fully funded Betfair account in order to be able to receive any prizes you may win. More details here

Closing time for entries is 14:30pm on April 4.

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Premier League Previews: Villa and Chelsea to share the spoils

Premier League / Feizal Rahman / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Aston Villa boss Alex McLeish

"Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions throughout March compared to Villa’s three and such exertion from the West Londoners may well be about to catch up with them, despite some squad rotation."

Chelsea have played almost three times as many games as Aston Villa in the month of March and that could be a factor in deciding the outcome this weekend says Feizal Rahman, with the draw his recommended bet.

Aston Villa v Chelsea, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [4.9], Chelsea [1.88], The Draw [3.7]

Villa continue to show the sort of regressive form that has left them three places above the drop zone. Alex McLeish's side have managed just two victories in 2012, with four draws and four losses. The Claret and Blue have six defeats in their last ten at Villa Park, with just one win in eight.

Under the lead of Roberto Di Matteo, Chelsea have progressed in the FA Cup and Champions League. However, in the league, Opta state that they have only two wins from nine and, on the road, they have lost their last three and picked up maximum points just once since the turn of the year.

Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions throughout March compared to Villa's three and such exertion from the West Londoners may well be about to catch up with them, despite some squad rotation. The Blues will also not be encouraged by a poor record against Villa recently.

Opta note that Chelsea have won just once in their last 12 visits to Villa Park, otherwise losing four and drawing seven. Consequently, Chelsea look a lay at [1.88] in the Match Odds market with more appeal about the [3.7] on offer for the Draw.

Villa have struck just five times in their last eight at home, however, Chelsea have found the net only twice in their last five away games. Under 2.5 Goals should attract at [1.85] with a 0-0 and 1-1 Correct Score available at [12.0] and [8.0] respectively.

Everton v West Bromwich Albion, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Everton [1.9], West Brom [4.7], The Draw [3.7]

Everton have finally kicked into gear after their traditional slow start to the season and the Blue half of Merseyside are now just two points off neighbours, Liverpool - who they will go on to play in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley next month.

Back-to-back away wins in the league and cup will boost the confidence of David Moyes' men who have suffered just two league defeats in their last 10. A loss to Arsenal ended a run of three straight victories at Goodison Park, each over sides in the top five.

Having previously won three on the spin themselves, West Brom have picked up just a point from their most recent three in the league. However, Opta state that Roy Hodgson's side have suffered only two losses in the last nine away trips. Yet, Everton have won three of the five Premier League meetings between the two at Goodison with West Brom's sole victory coming in November 2010.

The Baggies have failed to score in just four of their 15 away games so far this season. However, the Toffeemen remain stingy at home and - as Opta reveal - they have conceded only once in their last four, with 10 of the last 12 fixtures at Goodison producing two goals or fewer.

Everton should get back to winning ways and are [1.9] for the victory. Under 2.5 Goals looks reasonably priced at [1.94] but Under 1.5 Goals could appeal more at [3.7] , with a 1-0 Correct Score on offer at [8.6].

Fulham v Norwich City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Fulham [1.75], Norwich [5.4], The Draw [4.0]

Fulham have lost their last three games, failing to score in each, as Opta inform us. Yet, the solid home record of Martin Jol's men has kept them out of trouble and ahead of a 3-0 defeat to Swansea last time out, they had six wins from eight at Craven Cottage, with a whopping 18 goals scored.

Inconsistency has been Norwich's problem all season, only able to put together a short run of point-winning form before a string of defeats. Away from home, the Canaries have three losses from their last four though were undefeated in their four prior to that.

According to Opta, Norwich's record against Fulham will offer them scant hope with not a single win in nine meetings since 1986. Three of the last four trips to Craven Cottage have resulted in defeat, the most recent a 6-0 hiding seven years ago.

Fulham should be good for the win at [1.75], while Over 2.5 Goals looks a safe bet at [1.8] with just one of the last seven at Craven Cottage failing to deliver at least three goals. Yet, the West Londoners have led at the break just four times all season so it may pay to back the Half Time Draw at [2.4].

Meanwhile, Clint Dempsey has nine goals on home turf this term while on-loan Pavel Pogrebnyak - who has indicated a desire to stay on at Fulham - has four strikes from three starts at the Cottage. The duo are [2.7] and [2.5] to score respectively.

Recommended Bets:

Aston Villa v Chelsea - Back The Draw @ [3.7]
Everton v West Brom - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.94]
Fulham v Norwich - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.8]

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Cheltenham 2012: Win a share of £1,000 in our daily tipping competition!

Latest News / Andrew French / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can you pick a Cheltenham winner? Enter our daily competition to win a share of £1,000

To mark the biggest week in the jump racing calendar, Betfair Community is offering budding tipsters a share of £1,000 for picking Festival winners in a daily competition...

The Betfair Horse Racing forum is running a daily competition during Cheltenham, where entrants will be asked to select one horse in each race.

Points will be scored for each winner picked, based upon their Betfair SP. The winner will be the person who scores the most points, with a tie-breaker coming into play if there is a draw.

The prize for the daily competitions will be: Day Two - £200; Day Three - £300; Day 4 - £400.

As a bonus, any entrant who manages to find all the winners on a given day will win an extra £500 - and be invited to write a tipping column for betting.betfair.com, ahead of the Grand National meeting next month.

More than 300 people entered on Day One - fancy your chances today? Details of today's competition are now live on the Forum.

- Prizes will only be paid into winners' Betfair accounts directly
- Therefore, you must have a funded Betfair account to be able to claim any prizes
- Prizes will not be paid until week commencing March 19

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League Two Betting: Oxford and Swindon to share the spoils

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

James Constable wasn't keen on moving to Oxford's rivals Swindon

"On form, the leaders would tinker as only Paolo Di Canio seems to know best – it keeps the players on their toes - and their quality would shine through. But Oxford also have strength in depth, Scott Rendell and Medhi Kerrouche competing for places."

Ian Lamont picks the best bets from League Two this weekend, including why table-toppers Swindon and promotion-chasers Oxford will both probably be happy to settle for a draw.

Accrington [2.42] Port Vale [3.1] draw [3.35]

Odds-makers are often slow to catch up with form trends. Often, that has applied to Accrington. But the picture has changed after John Coleman's departure. Under him, odds-against meant time to back Stanley, odds-on time to lay off. Not any more. They are in freefall. Paul Cook's time could be short, if the board lose patience and Stanley slip towards being the relegation cannon fodder the pre-season pundits always wanted them to be. For this game, the odds haven't caught up with Port Vale's good form. Accrington lost their last home game 4-0 to Plymouth - and have failed to score in six of their last seven. Micky Adams' men have steamed up the table, unbeaten in six with 14 points. Thus there is little reason to make the hosts favourites. The respective victory prices should be swapped, in my book. Another strike for 11-goal top scorer Marc Richards is overdue. Vale can win despite administration pending, because their fine form has come amid a swirl of rumours of difficulties.

Back Port Vale to win at Accrington @ a huge [3.1]

Plymouth [2.62] Gillingham [2.82] draw [3.4]

Plymouth, for all their changes and new-found battling verve as they battle the drop, don't score enough to build a convincing case they could actually beat a Gillingham. A side who are performing below par and who had to come back from 4-2 down to beat a poor Hereford side 5-4. The fact they did so - with Hereford missing a penalty to go 5-4 up themselves - tells you more about Hereford's defending, fragile confidence and lack winning habit than indicating the Gills' ability to come from behind. They would find it more difficult to do so if they went a goal down at Home Park, where Argyle have only been beaten by Swindon and Torquay in their last 12 home games. Carl Fletcher's men have spirit. The hosts may not win, but this represents a chance of a positive result. Therefore the draw appeals if you find Gillingham too long to lay.

Back Under 2.5 goals and the draw at [3.4]

Oxford [3.1] Swindon [2.42] Draw [3.35] (noon kick-off)

Swindon have extended their club record to 10 straight wins. Where will it end? Derby rivalry has a habit of upsetting form and James Constable's refusal to contemplate a move to Oxford's Wiltshire rivals adds spice. Poor Michael Duberry can't do anything right - scoring a third own goal in a month on Tuesday. On form, the leaders would tinker as only Paolo Di Canio seems to know best - it keeps the players on their toes - and their quality would shine through. But Oxford also have strength in depth, Scott Rendell and Medhi Kerrouche competing for places. Despite the fact the Swindon loanee won't be eligible and Jon-Paul Pittman is unlikely to be rushed back from a hamstring injury, Oxford simply won't want to lose the momentum of five wins and seven draws in the last 13.

Back the draw at [3.35]

Aldershot [2.1] Morecambe [3.85] Draw [3.45]

As a tipster, there's nothing worse than feeling your team won't win. But it's my gut feeling Aldershot are layable. Five straight wins they may have, while conceding just twice. Guy Madjo seems in great touch. I'd be delighted if Dean Holdsworth's men could prove me wrong and continue to narrow the gap to an unlikely play-off charge. The manager's shake-up has undoubtedly worked.

The backline is looking solid. There is much to like. But my hunch - which doesn't mean I think they will lose, just that one of the other two results seems more likely, particularly the draw - is based on Morecambe's away record - just three away defeats. After a great start to the season, Jim Bentley men made their expected fall, but have rallied. The last time they lost away was at the turn of the year. They attack particularly well down the left, through Kevin Ellison, with Jason Price, Danny Carlton and youngster Jordan Burrow battling hard for attacking spots. Poor home form should not distract from fine form on the road.

Lay Aldershot at home to Morecambe at [2.1]

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The Championship Betting: Top two to share the spoils

Championship / Andrew French / 10 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Hull striker Matty Fryatt is in decent form at present

"Forest have drawn three times in seven games away to teams in the top half – and QPR have seen three of seven home games against top-half teams finish all square."

Sunday's live Championship action is a television treat as league leaders QPR host in-from Nottm Forest, and our man Andrew French believes the game will be drawn.

Hull v Preston

There was a time when Hull were the Championship equivalent of watching paint dry. They still are a long way from being the consummate entertainers at home - but the recent signs are that the goals are finally starting to flow following a clutch of attack-minded signings. And the visit of lowly Preston is the ideal opportunity to improve upon their 0.86 goals per game average at home. The Tigers cracked in five at struggling Scunthorpe last week, while their last home game with Leeds ended 2-2: the second time in the last four fixtures at the KC Stadium when backers of Over 2.5 Goals would have been collecting. Clearly, the arrival of the likes of Matty Fryatt (six goals in six games since joining on from Leicester) and Aaron Mclean has pepped up the Tigers attack. There should be plenty of opportunity for more goals against North End, who have not kept a clean sheet away from home all season. However, they have managed to find the net in four of their last six on the road - hence backing Overs appeals.

Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.0]

Derby v Leicester

As recently as late November, Derby were fourth in the table with a push for promotion looking very possible. Less than three months later, and the Rams have tumbled to 17th on the back of a run of eight defeats in their last 11 games. They also suffered the ignominy of going out of the FA Cup to non-league Crawley - and they have not won at home in five outings. Therefore, Saturday teatime's live game seems the perfect opportunity for Leicester to continue their impressive rise up the table under Sven Goran Eriksson. The Foxes' recent form is in stark contrast to their hosts: unbeaten in their last six in the league, five of which they have won. The loan signing of Yakubu has added significantly to the Foxes' attacking strength, but the more important signing may have been big defender Sol Bamba from Hibs: Leicester's excellent league form coincided with his arrival, and he has already scored three times in six appearances. It's also worth noting that four of Derby's six home defeats have come against top 10 teams.

Back Leicester at [2.12] to beat Derby

QPR v Nottm Forest

This looks a really intriguing live game on Sunday - the most in-form team visiting the side that has headed the table virtually all season. Forest have been slow burners this season: as low as 19th in the table at the start of the campaign, they are unbeaten in nine - winning their last six - and are now second, seven points behind Rangers but with a couple of games in hand. This could well be the top two at the end of the season. Forest have drawn three times in seven games away to teams in the top half - and QPR have seen three of seven home games against top-half teams finish all square. I think this will be another tight affair, and I would not put you off backing either 0-0 ([9.8]) and/or 1-1 ([7.4]) in the Correct Score market if you want odds a bit bigger than the 3.4 on offer for the draw.

Back The Draw at [3.4]

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