Showing posts with label third. Show all posts
Showing posts with label third. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Supreme third Jezki set for Punchestown date

Despite losing his unbeaten record over hurdles, Jezki was far from disgraced in finishing third behind Champagne Fever and My Tent Or Yours...

Jessica Harrington's Jezki remains on course for next month's Punchestown Festival following his excellent run in defeat in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham...

The five-year-old was the long-term ante-post favourite for the Festival curtain-raiser, before being usurped at the head of the market by fellow JP McManus-owned runner My Tent Or Yours.

Despite losing his unbeaten record over hurdles, Jezki was far from disgraced in finishing third behind Champagne Fever and My Tent Or Yours and Harrington is looking forward to his next appearance.

"He came home in good form and he'll probably go to Punchestown for the two-mile novice there, all being well," said the trainer.

Jezki's half-brother Jetson also performed admirably at Cheltenham, taking third place in the Pertemps Final.

Harrington said: "He'll be entered in Fairyhouse but it's more likely he'll go to Aintree for the three-mile handicap hurdle there. He could then go to Punchestown for a hurdle race or a novice chase."

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Friday, January 4, 2013

FA Cup Stats: Value bets from the winner market and third round match-ups

"One of the many advantages of Betfair over traditional bookmakers is that you don't necessarily need to find the overall winner. You can get a good run for your money, and turn a profit, by backing one of the less obvious teams with a view to laying them at a later stage."

Andrew Atherley has crunched the FA Cup numbers to bring you a huge selection of tournament betting options...

One statistical trend stands out above all others when it comes to betting on the FA Cup: it is a competition dominated by the big six to almost the same extent as the Premier League.

Since the last big FA Cup final upset - when Wimbledon's Crazy Gang beat Liverpool in 1988 - only eight different clubs have lifted the famous trophy. All of the current big six have won at least once in that period, with Everton (1995) and Portsmouth (2008) the only clubs to have broken the stranglehold.

Add in the luck of the draw and punters are going to be fortunate indeed to find the overall winner unless they go for one of the big names. Perhaps the best choice at this stage might be Tottenham at 11.5n/a, as they are starting to gain momentum under Andre Villas-Boas and have a relatively easy start at home to Coventry.

But one of the many advantages of Betfair over traditional bookmakers is that you don't necessarily need to find the overall winner. You can get a good run for your money, and turn a profit, by backing one of the less obvious teams with a view to laying them at a later stage.

One of the best choices for that approach in recent years has been Stoke, who have reached at least the last eight in the past three seasons and were losing finalists in 2011. They are available to back at 44.043/1 this year and are likely to shorten if they can overcome a difficult start away to Crystal Palace.

It is notable that all eight of last season's quarter-finalists started their cup run against teams below them in the league standings (the seven Premier League teams that made it to that stage all drew lower-league opposition in the third round). Stoke fit that bill, but they may not be the most solid selection this time.

Another possible back-to-lay from the Premier League is Fulham at 38.037/1 as they start at home to Blackpool. Everton, Sunderland, Aston Villa and Wigan are others who have been given good chances to progress to the fourth round.

Another group of teams to consider is the top 12 in the Championship, who often feature a surprise performer in the FA Cup, granted a favourable draw. Last season Leicester were 12th in the Championship at the start of the third round and were the only team from outside the Premier League to reach the quarter-finals, losing to eventual winners Chelsea.

Leicester, drawn at home to Burton, have a decent chance of shortening again from their current 170.0169/1, as do Middlesbrough from 160.0159/1 on the assumption that they will have no difficulty disposing of Hastings at home.

Another way to profit from the solid form of the Championship top 12 is to back them in individual ties against teams below that level. Those may not be the most eye-catching games of the round, but the record of teams from the top half of the Championship is excellent in that sort of match-up.

The most attractively priced options this weekend are Millwall at 1.748/11 at home to Preston of League One, Leeds at 2.0811/10 at home to Birmingham from the bottom half of the Championship and Derby at 1.794/5 at home to League One leaders Tranmere.

Another trend worth following is that ties involving short-priced Premier League teams are often high-scoring, particularly when they are away to a lower-league team. Ties with the potential to go over 2.5 goals at decent odds include Brighton v Newcastle at 1.8810/11, Bolton v Sunderland at 1.9310/11 and Crystal Palace v Stoke at 2.1211/10.
Recommended Bets
Millwall to beat Preston @ 1.748/11
Leeds to beat Birmingham @ 2.0811/10
Derby to beat Tranmere @ 1.794/5
Brighton v Newcastle over 2.5 goals @ 1.8810/11
Bolton v Sunderland over 2.5 goals @ 1.9310/11
Crystal Palace v Stoke over 2.5 goals @ 2.1211/10

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Monday, February 20, 2012

Nick Abou Risk In Hunt For Third UKIPT Title

Poker News RSS / / 20 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nick Abou Risk (Photo: Mickey May)

Nick Abou Risk (Photo: Mickey May)

Abou Risk is a regular on the UKIPT and has had some stellar results in the three seasons it has been running, including two outright wins

The UK & Ireland Poker Tour Galway Main Event has reached the nine-handed final table and the eyes of the media are fixated on one man, despite the fact he is the second shortest stack when play resumes. That man is Nick Abou Risk.

Abou Risk is a regular on the UKIPT and has had some stellar results in the three seasons it has been running, including two outright wins. Back in 2010 Risk outlasted 401 runners in the UKIPT Edinburgh Main Event to get his hands on €50,000 in prize money then he followed that up with another win in December 2010's UKIPT Galway Main Event for a further €67,100. Now he has the chance for an unprecedented third UKIPT title when play resumes this afternoon.

Standing between Risk and that third UKIPT title are eight talented player who will be lead into battle by Ronan Gilligan whose 2,489,000 stack contains an extra 1,000,000 chips than any other player at the final table. Gilligan is a name that has graced these very pages before, not for his runner-up finish in the UKIPT Dublin Main Event back in 2010 but for his third place finish in the recent World Poker Tour Dublin Main Event that was won by Dave "Dubai" Shallow in January.

The final table of UKIPTs are usually played eight-handed but the penultimate day's play took more than 14 hours to complete so when Alan Gilmore was sent to the rail in tenth place during the early hours of the morning the decision was taken to pause the tournament and play down to a winner today instead, much to the delights of the players, the tournament staff and the various media outlets.

When play resumes at 1200 noon in Galway the players will sit down safe in the knowledge they have each locked up €7,800 in prize money but by the time play comes to an end and one player has in his possession each and every one of the 10,470,000 chips in play that player will be crowned champion and will have won a massive €114,900. Who will that be? Check in tomorrow to find that out!

UKIPT Galway Final Table Seat Draw

Seat 1: Emmett Mullin: 1,003,000
Seat 2: Nick Abou Risk: 647,000
Seat 3: Richard Haile: 652,000
Seat 4: Craig Burke: 1,283,000
Seat 5: Joe Roberts: 1,103,000
Seat 6: John Willoughby: 1,382,000
Seat 7: Aleksandras Rusinovas: 1,003,000
Seat 8: Joris Ruijs: 440,000
Seat 9: Ronan Gilligan: 2,489,000

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Sunday, February 5, 2012

Third Test Day Three Analysis: Ali takes game away from England

Pakistan v England RSS / / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Azhar Ali and Younis Khan, pictured, left Andrew Strauss with plenty to ponder

Azhar Ali and Younis Khan, pictured, left Andrew Strauss with plenty to ponder

"England record’s in the fourth innings in Asia is, unsurprisingly, not good enough for the impossible."

Ed Hawkins eats a bit of humble pie over the scoring ability of Azhar Ali and pours cold water on any faint England hopes of an unlikely victory...

Yesterday the old master. Today the new master? Azhar Ali got a bit of a bad press from this column at the start of the series. Talented but ill-disciplined we reckoned as we overlooked him for top bat wagers. Taking a leaf from Younis Khan - who helped build Pakistan's advantage - he looked every inch the coming man.

On day three of the third Test between Pakistan and England at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium, he embarrassed England, taking the game away from them with staunch defence and no little class. His maiden 150 - and only his second Test century - underlined Pakistan's extraordinary production line of young talent.

It is worth pausing, for a moment, to wonder just how they do it. Ali is keeping the talented Umar Akmal out of the team while do not forget that they are without Mohammad Amir and Mohammad Asid, two of the finest, if not flawed, bowlers in the world.

Yet Pakistan still produce players. One wonders which other sides could cope with such a drain and hit back with a series victory over the No 1-ranked side in the world. And with a whitewash by the looks of it, too.

If Younis and Ali together laid the groundwork for Pakistan's monstrous lead, it was the youngster who went on to build its impregnability. England must be sore in body and mind. They can't get home fast enough, knowing they have been outplayed in three consecutive matches.

There could be more ignominy to come. Memories of their 72 all out humbling last time out will surely haunt them. Indeed, England record's in the fourth innings in Asia is, unsurprisingly, not good enough for the impossible.

Since 2000, they average 27 runs per wicket. It is a statistic which suggests that we should have been expecting an implosion at some stage.

And as if you didn't already know that England were cooked, there have been only 14 occasions in history when a side has made 320 or more in the fourth innings in Asia - and only three resulted in victories for the batting side.

As a gauge for how the innings runs market should play, the average all out fourth-innings total in Asia is 233 in the last two years.

Recommended Bet:
Pakistan to win at [1.46]

England's bowlers made a good start, then their batsman let them down before Younis Khan starred on day two. It all leaves Michael Vaughan feeling glum despite the fact that his match odds bet looks likely to come in......

Ed Hawkins marvels at Younis Khan's innings as Pakistan take firm control of the third Test. Meanwhile, our man recommends a lay bet on an England batsman whose technique leaves a lot to be desired......

Ed Hawkins was not impressed by the tourists, who showed exactly why the series has already been lost...


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Thursday, February 2, 2012

Pakistan v England Third Test: Dreadful value on tourists

Pakistan v England RSS / / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kevin Pietersen's inability to play spin is a huge concern for England

Kevin Pietersen's inability to play spin is a huge concern for England

"It is impossible to recommend England following their implosion in the second innings in Abu Dhabi when they were shot out for 72"

Ed Hawkins has lost patience with England and can't understand why Pakistan are not favourites for the third match, which starts in Dubai on Friday


Pakistan
Pakistan, not surprisingly, are expected to be unchanged following their sensational victory in the second Test at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi last week.

Umar Gul, who felt his calf in the first innings in that game, is fit while Asad Shafiq's 58 and 43 - vital contributions - secure his spot just as there were whispers that Umar Akmal would come into the team.


England
Ian Bell should be fit despite suffering from a stomach bug. Bell's place is apparently not under threat despite a return of 36 runs in four innings.

England, surely, will look to replace Eoin Morgan with Ravi Bopara. Morgan has 41 runs in the series and although he is faring marginally better than Bell he is considered more vulnerable because he is newest to the team.

In that thinking you may have hit upon a weakness in the England camp. Batsmen are given chance after chance and there is a strong case for saying Kevin Pietersen should sit this one out. He has only 17 runs.

No matter. England must jettison one of the underperforming three. Reputation and past performances should count for little. The management should decide who remains purely on the basis of who is most likely to counter the spin of Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman. They can't all survive on that basis.


Venue and conditions
One could be forgiven for reckoning that we have a pretty good idea of how the Dubai surface will play given this was the venue for the first Test. But in reality England were so abject that it is hard to tell. The match lasted barely three days as England succumbed to spin. In their two innings 14 wickets fell to Ajmal and Rehman. So it will spin then. Otherwise Pakistan batted reasonably well on it, posting 338.


Match odds
It is impossible to recommend England following their implosion in the second innings in Abu Dhabi when they were shot out for 72. Ajmal and Rehman, the spin threat, have got into the heads of the England batsmen and when that happens the torment can only continue.

England are [2.76] favourites which seems ludicrous given that they have twice been outplayed. Pakistan are [2.86] and the draw is [3.45]. One wonders what it will take for the market to realise that in these conditions England are vastly inferior.

The best advice for a wager is to back Pakistan with a view to laying off, just in case they take things easy with this being a dead rubber. There have been positive noises coming out of the camp this week, though, claiming they are "desperate" to win 3-0. At least at some stage the spinners should given them a stranglehold to make the trade pay.

As for England, their spirits are good, apparently. James Anderson, rather curiously, said: "The mood is pretty good, considering the position we're are in in this series."


Top Pakistan batsman
Mohammad Hafeez and Misbah-ul-Haq are almost neck and neck in the race to be top Pakistan batsman in the series. Hafeez, who has 156 runs, is around [5.00] for honours in the first innings. Misbah, on 148, could go off at around [6.00].


Top England batsman
As we have written before in this series Bell, Morgan and Pietersen are unbackable in this market and you can probably chuck in Andrew Strauss, too. The first three have no clue as to how to play spin. Certainly Morgan looks the most clueless, if you'll pardon the clumsy expression. It is to be hoped he plays because he would represent a solid lay in the to score a 50 in the first innings market.

Recommended bet
Back to lay Pakistan @ [2.86] in 3rd Test

He's far from being the most obvious candidate for a Test captain but Misbah Ul Haq's tenure as leader of the Pakistan cricket team has been remarkable, especially in the longest format. What's the secret, wonders Frank Gregan....

Ed Hawkins says England's defeat in Abu Dhabi shows how they have taken their position as the No 1-ranked side for granted...

Tourists lose from a winnable position as Pakistan spinners cast their spell...


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