South Africa v Pakistan 3rd ODI Betting: Can Pakistan produce again?

"We don't play on odds as short as South Africa so again the wise money will be a trade on Pakistan"

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Back-to-lay Pakistan at 2.6213/8

Ed Hawkins had an inkling the tourists would improve and after levelling the series at 1-1, he wonders whether they can take the lead in Jo'burg on Sunday...

South Africa v Pakistan
Start time: 08.00GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa
The series is level at 1-1 and South Africa will be wondering what happened to their batting at Centurion. They lost five wickets for 36 runs and never really recovered after that, posting a paltry 191, to lose by six wickets. Dale Steyn returned to the side after missing the first ODI but despite one wicket and an economy rate of under four an over, the tourists were relatively comfortable in chasing the total. They could make one change. Kyle Abbot, who held onto his place for game two but was wicketless, could be replaced by Rory Klieinveldt who was unfortunate in the extreme to miss out having taken four wickets in Bloemfontein. It is possible he suffered a niggle, though.

Pakistan
A much improved Pakistan performance and the last two matches have captured perfectly why they can be so frustrating for gamblers. You never know which side will turn up. It was the bowlers to the fore in Centurion. The giant Mohammad Irfan took four wickets and Junaid Khan two. Saeed Ajmal, the spinner, was also on song with two wickets. There will be concern about Umar Gul's form - he went for more than seven an over - so Wahab Riaz must be in with a shout of plaing this time.

Innings runs
The average first-innings score in the last ten first-innings is 219. Jo'burg has a reputation for big runs, largely because of the South Africa v Australia epic which produced 872 of them in 2008. Recently it has been more of a bowler's wicket. Four times in the last ten games the side batting first have failed to post 154 or more. Pakistan were responsible for one of those, notching 153 in 2007. 15 of the 26 matches have been won by the side fielding first.

Match odds
South Africa could argue that their rhythm was upset by rain in Centurion but they were already on the rocks by the time the heavens opened. There could be more rain around for this clash and, as ever, we would advise that it normally helps the side chasing. Last time out there was some huge money trying to get against South Africa but this time the market is a little calmer. The hosts are 1.594/7 with Pakistan 2.6213/8. We don't play on odds as short as South Africa so again the wise money will be a trade on Pakistan. Before their first wicket on Friday they had drifted to the cusp of 4.003/1 so the value is clear if they can get a foothold.

Top South Africa runscorer
Cricket can be a cruel game. Colin Ingram, star of the show in the second ODI with a century, got a first ball duck in Centurion. Perhaps he will now post another score? He is 5.004/1. Hashim Amla is jolly here at a scandalous 3.7011/4. Graeme Smith is 5.004/1 and AB De Villiers 4.507/2. Farhaan Berhadien, who top scored last time, is 8.4015/2.

Top Pakistan batsman
Kamran Akmal, as discussed in our previous preview, was shunted up to No 3 but the value on him has now gone. In truth we are looking at the powerful middle-order of Younis Khan, Misbah-ul-Haq and Shoaib Malik for runs.

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Back-to-lay Pakistan at 2.6213/8

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ODI Betting: Pakistan to exact World Cup revenge on India

ODI preview / Andrew Hughes / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Pakistan are out for revenge

"As has so often been the case, this clash between neighbours will come down to India’s batsmen against Pakistan’s bowlers."

India's shock defeat on Friday gives extra spice to this meeting of bitter rivals and Andrew Hughes thinks Pakistan could have the edge.

March 18, India v Pakistan, Dhaka, 08:00 GMT
Team News
Given that their seamers have largely failed so far, India could go old school and play just the two, although it's more likely that they'll opt to shuffle the pack, bringing in Vinay Kumar at the expense of Ashok Dinda. Yusuf Pathan is another option, but India are already well-stocked with big hitters and M S Dhoni seems to prefer Ravindra Jadeja in the all-rounder's berth.

Pakistan will consider strengthening the batting by bringing in Asad Shafiq, but that would weaken their bowling and young all-rounder Hammad Azam did well enough in Thursday's game to retain his place. Aizaz Cheema took four wickets in that game so should continue to keep Wahab Riaz on the sidelines.

Venue and Conditions
There is a marginal advantage to batting second at the Shere Bangla Stadium, although results have not yet fully reflected this. The surface has looked a little worn and sluggish in the afternoon whilst the evening dew freshens it up and brings the ball onto the bat more quickly, as well as making it harder for the fielding side. Still this is essentially a batting-friendly venue and bowlers erring in line or length will suffer.

Match Odds
As has so often been the case, this clash between neighbours will come down to India's batsmen against Pakistan's bowlers. And on a good batting pitch, Pakistan's superiority with the ball could be crucial. On paper, India's batting is the best in the tournament, but their spinners are ordinary and their seamers are military medium. They badly miss the class of Zaheer Khan or Harbhajan Singh at his peak.

It is hard to see India's bowlers causing a talented if inconsistent Pakistan batting line-up too many problems. By contrast, Aizaz Cheema and Umar Gul backed up by the spin of Shahid Afridi and Saaed Ajmal can apply the pressure. It will be a close contest, but at [2.24] Pakistan are the value in the Match Odds market and have a great chance of securing revenge for that World Cup semi-final defeat.

Top Indian Batsman
Now that he's reached his milestone, the runs might come more freely for Sachin Tendulkar but at bigger odds, I prefer Suresh Raina. He hit a rapid half-century on Friday which should have blown away the cobwebs and he's worth backing at [6.5]

Top Pakistan Batsman
On a slowing pitch one or two of Pakistan's batsmen might lack the requisite patience, but the experienced Younis Khan is just the man for the job. He hasn't hit many runs yet, but he fell to a wonder catch from Fervez Maharoof last time so we can't read too much into his single figure score. He should be backed at [5.0]

Featured Market
So far the average number of fours per game is a touch over 42 with the lowest total being 35. At this venue, the four tally is unlikely to drop much below 40, so '0-30' makes no appeal in the Total Fours market. Both '31-42' or '43 or more' are worth backing at [2.0] or better.

Recommended Bet
Back Pakistan to beat India at 2.24

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1st ODI Betting Pakistan v England: New trial by spin

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 12 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

"Before considering backing Alastair Cook’s team we would like to see evidence that they can counter Pakistan’s spin"

Ed Hawkins has all the stats and analysis ahead of the first match in Abu Dhabi tomorrow

Pakistan
The 'hosts' could launch an army of spinners against England following the tourists' poor performance against twirl in the Test series.

Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman could be joined by Shahid Afridi, whose variations are potent in this format, plus there are other spin options in Mohammad Hafeez and Imran Farhat. Shoaib Malik, the off-spinning allrounder, returns to the squad while Umar Gul and Wahab Riaz are the likely pace pairing.

England
Stuart Broad, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen and Monty Panesar were unhurt after a taxi they were travelling in had to stop suddenly after its bonnet flew up, obscuring the driver's view.

Jos Buttler, the highly-rated Somerset batsman, is expected to miss out after injuring a hand in the nets. Buttler needed stitches when he split the webbing on his left hand. Ravi Bopara, the patient tourist, should play in his place.

Tim Bresnan returns following his injury lay-off. Bresnan played in the warm-up match against England Lions, taking one for 23. Steven Finn looks to have bowled himself into a berth with three for 28 and although Jade Dernbach also took three wickets, the Middlesex man should pip him for the final fast-bowling slot.

Venue and conditions
The Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi has hosted 17 ODIs, all under lights, but there is no discernible toss bias with a nine-eight split in favour of the side batting first. The average first-innings score in those matches is 251. Pakistan have a good record at this ground, winning ten from those 17.

Match odds
If you missed our series preview, you can read it here. It makes for grim reading for England supporters, largely because of a poor record in Asian conditions. England have won just 12 of 38 ODIs in Asia. It is a stat worth repeating.

Pakistan are as short as [1.78] to take honours in the first game with England [2.28]. Before considering backing Alastair Cook's team we would like to see evidence that they can counter Pakistan's spin.

Moving up Kevin Pietersen to the position as an opener is not a bad idea to protect their supposed stellar performer from spin, but don't be surprised to see Pakistan open the bowling with Ajmal from one end.

As if twirl does not terrify enough, England appear to have a potential problem in the middle order. Craig Kieswetter, a pinch hitter, is now expected to do the job of a finisher, or a nudger and nurdler in these conditions. It a potentially stupefying move.

England's best chance is to bat first without the pressure of a chase and hope that Stuart Broad and Bresnan, impressive performers with the ball, can trouble Pakistan.

Top Pakistan batsman
Misbah-ul-Haq top scored for Pakistan last time at this venue with 66 against Sri Lanka. He is [5.10]. Umar Akmal, Pakistan's best batsman in ODis in recent times, also scored a fifty in that game. He is [3.55] under Any Other, which includes Afridi and Malik. Not a bad wager.

Top England batsman
Jonathan Trott [4.70], Alastair Cook [4.60] and Eoin Morgan [5.10] are England's best hopes of countering Pakistan's squeeze, although Morgan was in poor nick in the Test series. Pietersen is [4.40] favourite.

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Back Any Other top Pakistan batsman @ [3.55]

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Michael Vaughan: Pakistan to carry on where they left off

Pakistan v England / Michael Vaughan / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Big guns. Younis Khan, Umar Gul and Shahid Afridi share a joke with coach Mohsin Khan (second from left).

"We have seen Pakistan struggle to chase good scores plenty of times in the past so the toss may end up being really important. Still, we have to side with Pakistan because of the momentum they bring into the one-dayers and their better knowledge of the conditions."

The momentum Pakistan are carrying from the Test series and better knowledge of the conditions should help them win the ODI series. Michael Vaughan discusses England's strongest team and the best bets.

The Test series was a rude awakening for England but they get a chance to try and redeem themselves with this four-match ODI series. If we're looking for positives then we can say that some of the England batsmen who now take to the limited-overs format should know how to play the likes of Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman by now. One of the guys who really struggled against them, Ian Bell, has been dropped and there are some new guys like Jos Butler, Steven Davies and Ravi Bopara coming in who may not have played against those guys before but then again, won't have nightmares about what happened in the Test matches to haunt them.

Kevin Pietersen is opening the batting just like he did at the World Cup and that's a good move. Firstly because he's probably still England's most dangerous player in this format and will enjoy batting when the ball (or balls as it now given that two are used throughout the match) is hard. And secondly because I think it's time to abandon the experiment of opening with Craig Kieswetter, who will drop down the order.

Jonathan Trott may contribute in terms of weight of runs but I simply can't have him and Alastair Cook batting together in the top three. You can't axe the skipper so if I was me, I'd be tempted to leave Trott out and play Samit Patel at three. The Notts all-rounder also likes to bat when the ball is hard and something England need to start doing is playing the batsmen in the positions they bat for when playing for their counties. Patel bats at three for his county so he should bat there for England as well.

If Jos Butler is going to get a game he should bat at four, which is where he comes in for Somerset. But I'd actually be tempted to play Bopara and find out for once and for all if he can cut it at this level. He'd also provide another useful option as a fourth seamer. Then it would be Eoin Morgan at five, Jonny Bairstow at six and the aforementioned Kieswetter in the traditional keeper's position of seven.

Of these Morgan would be my selection to end the series as top-runscorer. I know he only comes in at five but we saw in the Test series how one wickets leads to another and he may well be at the crease a lot earlier than England would have liked! He's available at [6.0].

The rest pretty much pick themselves with Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann, James Anderson and one of Tim Bresnan or Steve Finn.

Pakistan are arguably a better Test side at the moment than they are ODI team but this will be far from easy for England. Shahid Afridi is and always has been a match-winner and Umar Akmal has been accused of being a little reckless at times but he's another who can turn a game very quickly. They will both come into the side and could be big players for Pakistan in this series.

The big problem England have is that I wouldn't fancy them to chase anything above 250 and that's likely to be on the cards if Pakistan bat first. We saw in the Test series that England's batters couldn't keep their wickets intact against the spinners, let alone score off them so I can't see how that's going to change now, especially with the pressure of a tricky run-chase on. I can picture a scenario where England are chasing 230-250 and fall well short just like they did in the Tests.

England's best bet is to bat first if they win the toss, be aggressive against the spinners and try to set a decent total. We have seen Pakistan struggle to chase good scores plenty of times in the past so the toss may end up being really important. Still, we have to side with Pakistan because of the momentum they bring into the one-dayers and their better knowledge of the conditions. If England don't win one of the first two matches it could easily end up being another whitewash, just as it was in India before Christmas but I think they will, so 3-1 would be my idea of the series score.

1pt Back Eoin Morgan to be England top series runscorer @ [6.0]
3 pts Back Pakistan to win the series @ [2.22]
Back Pakistan to win the series 3-1 @ [3.4]

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Pakistan v England Third Test: Dreadful value on tourists

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kevin Pietersen's inability to play spin is a huge concern for England

"It is impossible to recommend England following their implosion in the second innings in Abu Dhabi when they were shot out for 72"

Ed Hawkins has lost patience with England and can't understand why Pakistan are not favourites for the third match, which starts in Dubai on Friday

Pakistan
Pakistan, not surprisingly, are expected to be unchanged following their sensational victory in the second Test at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi last week.

Umar Gul, who felt his calf in the first innings in that game, is fit while Asad Shafiq's 58 and 43 - vital contributions - secure his spot just as there were whispers that Umar Akmal would come into the team.

England
Ian Bell should be fit despite suffering from a stomach bug. Bell's place is apparently not under threat despite a return of 36 runs in four innings.

England, surely, will look to replace Eoin Morgan with Ravi Bopara. Morgan has 41 runs in the series and although he is faring marginally better than Bell he is considered more vulnerable because he is newest to the team.

In that thinking you may have hit upon a weakness in the England camp. Batsmen are given chance after chance and there is a strong case for saying Kevin Pietersen should sit this one out. He has only 17 runs.

No matter. England must jettison one of the underperforming three. Reputation and past performances should count for little. The management should decide who remains purely on the basis of who is most likely to counter the spin of Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman. They can't all survive on that basis.

Venue and conditions
One could be forgiven for reckoning that we have a pretty good idea of how the Dubai surface will play given this was the venue for the first Test. But in reality England were so abject that it is hard to tell. The match lasted barely three days as England succumbed to spin. In their two innings 14 wickets fell to Ajmal and Rehman. So it will spin then. Otherwise Pakistan batted reasonably well on it, posting 338.

Match odds
It is impossible to recommend England following their implosion in the second innings in Abu Dhabi when they were shot out for 72. Ajmal and Rehman, the spin threat, have got into the heads of the England batsmen and when that happens the torment can only continue.

England are [2.76] favourites which seems ludicrous given that they have twice been outplayed. Pakistan are [2.86] and the draw is [3.45]. One wonders what it will take for the market to realise that in these conditions England are vastly inferior.

The best advice for a wager is to back Pakistan with a view to laying off, just in case they take things easy with this being a dead rubber. There have been positive noises coming out of the camp this week, though, claiming they are "desperate" to win 3-0. At least at some stage the spinners should given them a stranglehold to make the trade pay.

As for England, their spirits are good, apparently. James Anderson, rather curiously, said: "The mood is pretty good, considering the position we're are in in this series."

Top Pakistan batsman
Mohammad Hafeez and Misbah-ul-Haq are almost neck and neck in the race to be top Pakistan batsman in the series. Hafeez, who has 156 runs, is around [5.00] for honours in the first innings. Misbah, on 148, could go off at around [6.00].

Top England batsman
As we have written before in this series Bell, Morgan and Pietersen are unbackable in this market and you can probably chuck in Andrew Strauss, too. The first three have no clue as to how to play spin. Certainly Morgan looks the most clueless, if you'll pardon the clumsy expression. It is to be hoped he plays because he would represent a solid lay in the to score a 50 in the first innings market.

Recommended bet
Back to lay Pakistan @ [2.86] in 3rd Test

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Pakistan v England, Day 3 Analysis: Prepare for twists

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 27 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Saeed Ajmal might be deadly on a fourth day wicket

"A chase of 175 on a wearing pitch with Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman whirling away will be tricky indeed"

Ed Hawkins says there could be more turns on day four as England look to get back into the series

So England would appear to be in the driving seat after day three of the second Test at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi. They are [1.49] for victory with Pakistan [3.75] and the draw a largely irrelevant [14.50].

The tourists, who have battled hard in this Test following their dismal showing in the first game, leaving many to believe it was surely a blip, trail by 55 runs with six wickets to claim.

England should win. Should. It is difficult to definitely say that they will, however, because we must respect the character of this game. It has been a capricious sort. We have been unable to confidently say how proceedings would pan out, in terms of one side dominating, ever since England's implosion from a position of strength on day two.

The key for England will be early wickets. And from that point of view the game has been consistent. In the first innings England rushed through the Pakistan tail after an overnight break as refreshed bowlers restricted Pakistan to only one more run.

A repeat is unlikely, of course, but Andrew Strauss and co will hope to pick up the remaining Pakistan batsmen for no more than 100 runs. Any more and England will be nervous. A chase of 175 on a wearing pitch with Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman whirling away will be tricky indeed.

In such a sentence we have a strategy for the denouement. There is the potential for classic back-and-lay scenarios in a tight chase, particularly as we already know that once partnerships - which are far from impossible - are broken there is an opportunity for another quick wicket. One brings two has been this Test's mantra.

There is work to be done until then, of course. And one would hope that a thrilling Test does not fizzle out with Pakistan falling by the wayside tomorrow. Much depends on Asad Shafiq and Azhar Ali. Adnan Akmal aside, there is precious little batting to come.

Looking ahead to a top England runscorer, it is difficult to get away from Jonathan Trott. A battle will be right up his street and we will forgive him his lazy shot in the first dig. Men to avoid are Strauss, Eoin Morgan and Kevin Pietersen.

Each appear to be in dire form. There is little one may be able to do betting-wise with the latter two but Strauss could be worth a lay for top bat, especially if England are chasing a small target.

No-one managed to correctly predict the number of runs scored on day three in the Michael Vaughan Run Chase game so we have a rollover on day three, with £1,500 now up for grabs.

Click here to play ahead of tomorrow's action.

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World Cup Betting: New Zealand v Pakistan

Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 07 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Shahid Afridi is the dangerman

"New Zealand are expected to keep faith with the side that hammered Zimbabwe by 10 wickets, meaning there is still no room for allrounder Jacob Oram"

Ed Hawkins looks ahead to the Group A contest in Pallekele on Tuesday. Follow him on Twitter here for in-running recommendations

Team news
Pakistan, who overcame a typical wobble against Canada, have three wins from three and are expected to comfortably deal with New Zealand.

There are issues to resolve, however and we should not hold our breath that they come up with an answer. Openers Mohammad Hafeez and Ahmed Shehzad are the weak links and coach Waqar Younis has identified that.

The problem is that Pakistan have not had a decent opening pair for years so they may as well let the duo get on with it and hope for the best.

Shoaib Akhtar and Abdur Rehman, who both missed the win over Canada, could return in place of Wahab Riaz and Saeed Ajmal respectively.

New Zealand are expected to keep faith with the side that hammered Zimbabwe by 10 wickets, meaning there is still no room for allrounder Jacob Oram.

Venue and conditions
The Pallekele stadium, in Kandy, is a new ground and only one match has been played there, the Test between Sri Lanka and West Indies at the end of last year which was badly affected by the weather. However, six of the eight wickets to fall went to the spinners but one could be charged with trying to read too much into that. The forecast is for sunny spells.

Match odds
This column does not rate [2.52] New Zealand in the least and anyone taking the [1.64] have a perfectly good wager. Pakistan have played New Zealand seven times in World Cups and lost only once. Of more relevance is the 3-2 victory over the Kiwis in an ODI series before the tournament began.

Doubts persist about New Zealand's batting when they come against a proper side and Shahid Afridi's brand of spin should sorely test them. He leads the wickets tally with 14 victims from three matches. He is also fifth in the overall economy rate with 2.60 runs per over from his 28 overs so far.

Top batsman - New Zealand
Martin Guptill (with 135 runs so far) and Brendon McCullum (118 runs) will have to provide a convincing opening start. The pair are [4.70] and [4.50] respectively for top-bat honours. Scott Styris is probably underrated at [9.60] while Daniel Vettori comes under Any Other at a poor value [4.40]

Top batsman - Pakistan
Misbah-ul-Haq (185 runs), Umar Akmal (129) and Younus Khan (128) have solid form behind them.

Featured market
Hafeez and Shehzad average just 25 together for the first wicket in their eight innings. If you can lay 30 runs or more at [3.00] then take it.

Best bet: lay Pakistan opening partnership for 30 or more at [3.00]

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World Cup Betting: Kenya v Pakistan

Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Shoaib Akhtar should trouble Kenya

"Despite Pakistan’s previous problems with spot-fixing, it would be remarkable if there was to be anything untoward taking place in this contest in terms of the result"

It's another mismatch in the tournament but there are still betting options for this contest in Hambantota on Wednesday as Ed Hawkins explains. Follow him on Twitter here.

Team news
Pakistan, the pariahs of the world game, begin their campaign for forgiveness against Kenya and they do so with an embarrassment of riches in terms of talent, which makes it hard not to believe they have been underrated for glory.

They have one of best squads on show with Shoaib Akhtar, Umar Gul and Wahab Riaz masters with new ball, old ball and at the death, while Shahid Afridi leads a mini army of spinners. Such is their depth that fearsome hitter and occasional opening bowler Abdul Razzaq may be left out.

Kenya, humiliated by New Zealand in barely 30 overs in their first match, should be no match for Pakistan. Jimmy Kamande, the captain, promised an improvement. They could hardly be any worse.

Venue and conditions
The Mahinda Rajapaksha stadium has hosted the one game so far and although it could be perceived as premature to judge a wicket after one viewing, we know a sluggish one when we see one. Sure, Sri Lanka may have amassed 332 against Canada but the home side are used to such surfaces and it was obvious watching batsmen mistime at the start of an innings that it was slow. This will suit Pakistan. Kenya will find it alien.

Match odds
Despite Pakistan's previous problems with spot-fixing, it would be remarkable if there was to be anything untoward taking place in this contest in terms of the result. Not that anyone will be betting Pakistan at skinny odds of [1.05]. Kenya are [18.00] and if you have to play this market then the African side are a back-to-lay option. Remarkably a similar trade would have paid off - providing you were quick - against New Zealand.

Top batsman - Pakistan
Misbah-ul-Haq is the man in form for Pakistan with a couple of fifties in the recent series against New Zealand and a century in the warm-up match against Bangladesh. He is [6.00] for top-bat honours. Younis Khan, with 80 in the warm-up loss to England, is [5.00].

Ahmed Shehzad and Mohammad Hafeez, probably the two weakest openers in the tournament from a Big Eight perspective, are both [2.60]. Kamran Akmal could also open, however and is [4.00]. The value looks to lie with Any Other at [7.00], however. You will have Afridi, Razzaq and Umar Akmal batting for you among the rest.

Top batsman - Kenya
Seren Waters and Rakep Patel were joint top scorers with 16 runs against New Zealand. Collins Obuya, the former Warwickshire legspinner, hit the heights of 14. Not surprisingly the market is a confused one. Waters, Patel, Obuya and the trusty veteran Steve Tikolo are all [5.00]. In what is perhaps a sign of wishful thinking, [3.00] is the price for Any Other.

Featured market
It was the pace of New Zealand's Hamish Bennett which accounted for Kenya against New Zealand. Hurling it fast and full he was too much for them. So what could Shoaib Akhtar achieve? He could be worth following for top Pakistan bowler.

Best bet: back SHoaib for top bowler at [3.00]

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