South Africa v Pakistan 3rd ODI Betting: Can Pakistan produce again?

"We don't play on odds as short as South Africa so again the wise money will be a trade on Pakistan"

Recommended bet
Back-to-lay Pakistan at 2.6213/8

Ed Hawkins had an inkling the tourists would improve and after levelling the series at 1-1, he wonders whether they can take the lead in Jo'burg on Sunday...

South Africa v Pakistan
Start time: 08.00GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa
The series is level at 1-1 and South Africa will be wondering what happened to their batting at Centurion. They lost five wickets for 36 runs and never really recovered after that, posting a paltry 191, to lose by six wickets. Dale Steyn returned to the side after missing the first ODI but despite one wicket and an economy rate of under four an over, the tourists were relatively comfortable in chasing the total. They could make one change. Kyle Abbot, who held onto his place for game two but was wicketless, could be replaced by Rory Klieinveldt who was unfortunate in the extreme to miss out having taken four wickets in Bloemfontein. It is possible he suffered a niggle, though.

Pakistan
A much improved Pakistan performance and the last two matches have captured perfectly why they can be so frustrating for gamblers. You never know which side will turn up. It was the bowlers to the fore in Centurion. The giant Mohammad Irfan took four wickets and Junaid Khan two. Saeed Ajmal, the spinner, was also on song with two wickets. There will be concern about Umar Gul's form - he went for more than seven an over - so Wahab Riaz must be in with a shout of plaing this time.

Innings runs
The average first-innings score in the last ten first-innings is 219. Jo'burg has a reputation for big runs, largely because of the South Africa v Australia epic which produced 872 of them in 2008. Recently it has been more of a bowler's wicket. Four times in the last ten games the side batting first have failed to post 154 or more. Pakistan were responsible for one of those, notching 153 in 2007. 15 of the 26 matches have been won by the side fielding first.

Match odds
South Africa could argue that their rhythm was upset by rain in Centurion but they were already on the rocks by the time the heavens opened. There could be more rain around for this clash and, as ever, we would advise that it normally helps the side chasing. Last time out there was some huge money trying to get against South Africa but this time the market is a little calmer. The hosts are 1.594/7 with Pakistan 2.6213/8. We don't play on odds as short as South Africa so again the wise money will be a trade on Pakistan. Before their first wicket on Friday they had drifted to the cusp of 4.003/1 so the value is clear if they can get a foothold.

Top South Africa runscorer
Cricket can be a cruel game. Colin Ingram, star of the show in the second ODI with a century, got a first ball duck in Centurion. Perhaps he will now post another score? He is 5.004/1. Hashim Amla is jolly here at a scandalous 3.7011/4. Graeme Smith is 5.004/1 and AB De Villiers 4.507/2. Farhaan Berhadien, who top scored last time, is 8.4015/2.

Top Pakistan batsman
Kamran Akmal, as discussed in our previous preview, was shunted up to No 3 but the value on him has now gone. In truth we are looking at the powerful middle-order of Younis Khan, Misbah-ul-Haq and Shoaib Malik for runs.

Recommended Bet

Back-to-lay Pakistan at 2.6213/8

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Rugby Championship Match Pack: Argentina v South Africa

South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.

Recommended Bet
Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6

It should be great occasion in Mendoz on Saturday and Argentina thoroughly deserve their Rugby Championship status. However, whether they can produce a performance that will please their fans is another matter, says Geoffrey Riddle.

Argentina v South Africa, Saturday 20:10

• At the World Cup Argentina played three teams ranked inside the world's top ten: England, Scotland and New Zealand. They scored 35 points in those three matches.

• Subsequently they have played Italy, France twice and South Africa scoring 76 points in those four matches.

• Argentina did not manage to beat any defenders last week in the 27-6 loss to South Africa. What's more they only had 37 per cent territory.

• In contrast, South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.

• In those nine matches South Africa have conceded only eight tries, three of which were in the 36-27 defeat of England in Johannesburg in June.

• Santiago Phelan made just one change to the side that lost 27-6 last week to the Springboks. Martin Rodriguez, the Stade Francais player, replaced Luca Gonzalez Amorosino at fullback but then it was revealed that Juan Martin Hernandez suffered a torn leg muscle in a brutal training session.

• South Africa have some serious injury worries with Pierre Spies ruled out with a broken thumb, while Bryan Habana and Andries Bekker rolled their ankles and missed trainer earlier this week.

Match Preview

Oh to be in Mendoza this weekend for Argentina's debut Test at home against South Africa in the Rugby Championship. Any rugby fan worth his salt and a few thousand quid in the bank should consider it as it promises to be a wonderful occasion... on the pitch.

The home side fully deserve this historic Test after all of the sweat, tears and blood shed by previous Pumas players to get Argentina admitted to the sacred Southern Hemisphere clique but, as mentioned in last week's column, Argentina are barely better than Scotland right now.

As far as statistics go there is little to go on as teams as good as South Africa rarely make it to the depths of South America. What we can deduce, however, is that when teams as good as the Springboks take on teams as bad as Argentina they should be priced as favourites by around six to nine points, which at 8.5 is where Betfair have placed their handicap line.

Where there could be room for manoeuvre, however, is in the total points markets. According to my ratings, matches such as this should have a total points spread of around 41-44, but that is before you take into account Argentina's lamentable efforts to score not only last week, but going back 12 months.

Argentina simply cannot keep the scoreboard ticking over against the better teams. Currently their game plan and their lack of match practice at the highest level results in a lack of serious penetration.

Of course, they have some sublime players, but until the competition wears on, and provided they still have their wonderful spirit and outlook, that simply won't change.

Argentina of course have played only a handful of serious matches in 2012 and although they should improve from last week's run-out they should struggle to accumulate points, let alone cross the whitewash, especially without Hernandez.

Recommended Bet
Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6

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Michael Vaughan: Spin, Swann, Bell to toll for South Africa

"But it’s England who are the pre-match bet because of the run they’re in and because they’re at home; at 2.71/1 they offer the potential as a back-to-lay at worst."

The wicket at the Oval is likely to be a dry one so winning the toss and batting first will be the natural gameplan for both captains. But as a pre-toss selection it's England who hold most of the trump cards and should be backed, says Michael Vaughan.

First and foremost let's hope that this Series isn't spoilt by the weather. These are two really good teams up against each other and it would be a massive disappointment if we don't have enough play to establish who is the better of the two right now. Light showers are expected on Thursday and Friday but it's meant to be a lot better over the weekend.

The pitch at the Oval is normally a good one and the news is that it will be a dry track that will offer plenty for the spinners late on in the match. That means that whereas it would normally be an idea to bowl first if you win the toss, both captains will be thinking that chasing any sort of score to win the game will be hard work. So win the toss and bat is probably the wise choice. Graeme Swann and Imran Tahir will be major players in this contest but of the two it's Swann who is the more likely match-winner. Firstly because these are conditions that he knows better (even though Tahir has played plenty of county cricket) and secondly because he has bundles more experience of playing Test cricket. Other reasons why England may have the edge in this match are that South Africa are missing Mark Boucher and that they haven't had much of a chance to get much match practice because of the poor weather.

Either way, this will be far from straightforward for England. If it does something early on and SA are bowling then Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel and Vernon Philander can cause havoc. If they dismiss England's two left-handed openers early then Steyn can have a go at the right-handers who bat between positions three and eight inclusive. We've seen him rip through the best batting line-ups in the world over the years and he won't be feeling nervous about the challenge ahead. If the visitors bat and can make a good start, negating the new-ball threat of James Anderson and Stuart Broad, they can post a big total because theirs is a formidable line-up. You know who they are and the fact that JP Duminy will be coming in at seven is proof that they bat deep; even Philander at eight has first-class hundreds to his name.

As ever in a Test match the start will be crucial because it sets the tempo for the rest of the game and the first hour will give us a big clue as to who will be in the driving seat at the end of day one. The best sides in the world make the most of gaining the initiative and the way England and South Africa play the game, if you lose a session badly, you're half way there to losing the match.

But it's England who are the pre-match bet because of the run they're in and because they're at home; at 2.71/1 they offer the potential as a back-to-lay at worst.

Ravi Bopara will be recalled and bat at number six after Jonny Bairstow never really got going against the West Indies. Ravi will be nervous because he knows he has to perform in this Series but he comes into this game in good form after impressing in the ODI series against the Windies where he looked confident and composed. But the man to side with in terms of getting a score is Ian Bell. He'll be batting down at five after opening in the 50-over matches but that shouldn't bother him and he'll enjoy facing Tahir given that he's such a good player of spin. He's 2.61/1 to score fifty or more and that looks a bet.

For South Africa I like Jacques Kallis for top first innings batsman honours. A lot has been made of his indifferent record over in England but that's even more reason why he'll want to improve upon it on what is surely his last Tour over here. Write this man off at your peril but I certainly won't and he's my choice at 5.54/1.

Back England at 2.71/1
Back Ian Bell to score 50 or more @ 2.61/1
Back Jacques Kallis to be South Africa first innings top batsman @ 5.54/1

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South Africa: Igugu heads strong Met field

News / Gary Crispe / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Igugu is the star entry in the J&B Met.

"Igugu, the winner of nine of her 11 starts in South Africa including the Group 1 Durban July, has recovered from a slight setback and is a hot ante-post favourite..."

There were few surprises when the final field was announced for the R2.5-million J&B Met to be run over 2000m at Kenilworth on Saturday 28 January, with South Africa's reigning Horse of the Year Igugu heading a fantastic field of 16...

Australian-bred Igugu, the winner of nine of her 11 starts in South Africa including the Group 1 Durban July, has recovered from a slight setback and is a hot ante-post favourite for the finale to the Sizzling Summer Season in the Western Cape.

Bravura, Tales Of Bravery and talented three-year-old Gimmethegreenlight, winner of the recent Queen's Plate, are all in the line-up.

Absentees include Summer Cup winner Dancewiththedevil and Charity Mile winner Piere Jourdan as well as three-year-olds Variety Club and Jackson, who have accepted for the Cape Derby instead.

Igugu suffered a setback in training and had to miss the Paddock Stakes, her planned final preparatory run but the Mike de Kock stable says she has hardly missed a beat in getting back into full work.

She will be ridden by her regular jockey Anthony Delpech.

De Kock has also accepted with his Brazilian-bred gelding Ilsanpietro who won the Java Handicap and finished second in both the Victory Moon and the Summer Cup and will have Weichong Marwing in the irons.

The Joey Ramsden-trained Bravura , who won the Cape Derby two years ago but has only won two races since has been allocated top weight of 60kg and will meet Igugu on 0.5kg worse terms than in last year's Durban July when he finished seventh.

He ran in last year's Met and was expected to do much better than seventh behind Past Master but this term has won the Green Point Stakes and was fourth in the L'Ormarins Queen's Plate and looks to be back to his best.

He will have champion jockey Anton Marcus in the irons.

Smart chaser Blazing Tempo landed the most prestigious victory of her career over fences so far when taking the Grade 2 Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse on Sunday afternoon....

Somersby (BSP of [5.8]) finally gained the big victory his consistent efforts deserved when wearing down Finian's Rainbow in the 25th Anniversary of the VC Chase at Ascot......

Betting.Betfair columnist Donald McCain fired in a quartet of winners at Haydock on Saturday......

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Morocco v Tunisia: Atlas Lions are kings of North Africa

African Cup Of Nations / Tobias Gourlay / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mane man: Marouane Chamakh will lead the Atlas Lions line against Tunisia

"Morocco have players from top European leagues in key positions and that big-match experience could be the difference"

Tobias Gourlay explains how Morocco can win the Maghreb deby with Tunisia, despite concerns around the form of their strikers

Monday 19:00 (Live on British Eurosport)
Morocco [2.62] Tunisia [3.1] draw [3.15]

Morocco

The Atlas Lions won their qualifying group, but failed to score in half of their six games. Adel Taarabt has returned to the squad after walking out last summer. Despite poor club form, he will probably start upfront with Marouane Chamakh, who is similarly short on confidence.

Coach Eric Gerets only took his first international job a few months ago, but has significant experience at club level with big teams in France, Germany and the Netherlands.

Tunisia

Many big teams are missing from this year's Cup of Nations, but for a tenth successive competition the Eagles of Carthage are there.

It's not quite accurate to say they flew into Gabon - they trailed in second in their qualifying group, beating up on the bottom two teams but failing to win any of their four matches against Botswana and Malawi, who finished first and third.

Match Odds

Fifa suggests it is difficult to separate the two teams, but Morocco (ranked 61 in the world) are favourites to beat their North African rivals (59) in this repeat of the 2004 final.

Gerets' team has players from top European leagues in key positions - as well as the strikers, there is Udinese's impressive Mehdi Benatia in central defence and the captain, Houssine Kharja of Fiorentina, in midfield. Given the teams similarly mediocre records in getting here - both won only half of their qualifiers - that big-match experience could be the difference.

Over/Under Goals

Nine of Morocco's last 12 matches anywhere have produced two goals or fewer, which helps explain why Under 2.5 Goals is only [1.57].

Dare we risk Under 1.5 Goals at [2.62]? A couple of big home wins over Algeria and Tanzania aside, Morocco's four other qualifiers stayed Under 1.5 Goals and three of Tunisia's eight qualifiers were similarly low-scoring (2/4 on foreign soil).

Both Teams to Score?

Tunisia's matches used to be quite exciting: between August 2010 and August 2011 eight of their nine games went Over 2.5 Goals. Things have now changed. In none of their last five matches have both teams scored. The same's true of 8/12 Morocco games. With the market not quite sure what to expect, there might be a touch of value backing 'No' at evens.

Recommended Bet: Back Morocco @ [2.62] to win

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

Gabon are eminently capable of emulating their co-hosts, Equatorial Guinea, and starting their campaign with a win, says Tobias Gourlay...

James Eastham believes Ivory Coast will avoid any slip-ups against rank outsiders Sudan on Sunday afternoon....

James Eastham expects tournament dark horses Burkina Faso to make a winning start against Angola on Sunday....

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Cricket World Cup Betting: England v South Africa

Match Previews / Andrew Hughes / 05 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Botha could be back for the Proteas

"If England lose here, they will be playing knock-out cricket much sooner in the tournament than they’d hoped."

Wednesday's shock defeat to Ireland has thrown England's plans into chaos. Can they get back on track against the formidable looking South Africans?

London Start Time: 04:00

Venue and Conditions
This venue's previous game in Chennai was a non-event as New Zealand crushed Kenya, but the pitch appeared to conform to type, being slow, low and offering nothing for the quicker bowlers. Spinners will have more joy here, but it is essentially a very good track to bat on.

Team News
Kevin Pietersen, Graeme Swann and Paul Collingwood sat out Friday's training session but are expected to be fit for Sunday, although Collingwood may miss out if Ravi Bopara is given his chance. And given his poor performances so far this tournament, James Anderson may be replaced by Ajmal Shahzad.

South Africa's only problem is whether to go with three pace bowlers, three specialist spinners or an extra batsman. On a pitch that should offer some turn, the likely call is for Johan Botha to return at the expense of Morne van Wyk.

Match Odds
If England lose here, they will be playing knock-out cricket much sooner in the tournament than they'd hoped. Two wins from three is the equation and at the moment, it is anyone's guess whether they have it in them to get to the last eight. The general trend under Andy Flower has been continual improvement, but they were woeful in the field against Ireland and can't afford to put in another shocker.

If you wanted to make the case for an England win, you would point out that they have tend to be at their peak against better teams and have a good record against Sunday's opponents. But the addition of Imran Tahir has made South Africa just about the complete team. On paper, they outgun England in every department and they are justifiably [1.56] favourites to wrap up a quarter-final place.

Top Batsman
For England, either of the in-form Jonathan Trott at [5.0] or Andrew Strauss at [4.3] would be sensible picks while for South Africa, A B De Villiers [5.0] is in equally fine touch and hit a half-century last time he played here.

Featured Market
Jacques Kallis has yet to get going in this World Cup and for the moment we can side with Trott at [1.8] or better in the 'Trott v Kallis' market

Best Bet

South Africa to beat England at [1.56]

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