Showing posts with label north. Show all posts
Showing posts with label north. Show all posts
Saturday, August 31, 2013
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Morocco v Tunisia: Atlas Lions are kings of North Africa
African Cup Of Nations 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Mane man: Marouane Chamakh will lead the Atlas Lions line against Tunisia
"Morocco have players from top European leagues in key positions and that big-match experience could be the difference"
Tobias Gourlay explains how Morocco can win the Maghreb deby with Tunisia, despite concerns around the form of their strikers
Monday 19:00 (Live on British Eurosport)
Morocco [2.62] Tunisia [3.1] draw [3.15]
Morocco
The Atlas Lions won their qualifying group, but failed to score in half of their six games. Adel Taarabt has returned to the squad after walking out last summer. Despite poor club form, he will probably start upfront with Marouane Chamakh, who is similarly short on confidence.
Coach Eric Gerets only took his first international job a few months ago, but has significant experience at club level with big teams in France, Germany and the Netherlands.
Tunisia
Many big teams are missing from this year's Cup of Nations, but for a tenth successive competition the Eagles of Carthage are there.
It's not quite accurate to say they flew into Gabon - they trailed in second in their qualifying group, beating up on the bottom two teams but failing to win any of their four matches against Botswana and Malawi, who finished first and third.
Match Odds
Fifa suggests it is difficult to separate the two teams, but Morocco (ranked 61 in the world) are favourites to beat their North African rivals (59) in this repeat of the 2004 final.
Gerets' team has players from top European leagues in key positions - as well as the strikers, there is Udinese's impressive Mehdi Benatia in central defence and the captain, Houssine Kharja of Fiorentina, in midfield. Given the teams similarly mediocre records in getting here - both won only half of their qualifiers - that big-match experience could be the difference.
Nine of Morocco's last 12 matches anywhere have produced two goals or fewer, which helps explain why Under 2.5 Goals is only [1.57].
Dare we risk Under 1.5 Goals at [2.62]? A couple of big home wins over Algeria and Tanzania aside, Morocco's four other qualifiers stayed Under 1.5 Goals and three of Tunisia's eight qualifiers were similarly low-scoring (2/4 on foreign soil).
Tunisia's matches used to be quite exciting: between August 2010 and August 2011 eight of their nine games went Over 2.5 Goals. Things have now changed. In none of their last five matches have both teams scored. The same's true of 8/12 Morocco games. With the market not quite sure what to expect, there might be a touch of value backing 'No' at evens.
Recommended Bet: Back Morocco @ [2.62] to win
*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay
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Sunday, October 2, 2011
Lee Dixon: Adebayor amongst the many scorers in north London derby
Premier League / Lee Dixon / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Revenge is a dish best served cold. Emmanuel Adebayor will be fired up against his old club.
"I wouldn’t be too surprised if this finished 2-2 which is a 15.0 shot but I’m going to be a little bit conservative here and just go with over 3.5 goals instead at [2.7] as this really is one of those matches that could be more like a game out of the NBA than the Premier League and any big scoreline is possible."
Lee Dixon thinks history suggests a currently out-of-form Arsenal can still salvage something from a match where a goal glut will once again be on the cards.
I challenge you readers to tell me when was the last time you saw Tottenham as short as [2.2] to beat Arsenal at any ground, in any competition.
I certainly can't remember when that was but I can't really argue with that quote about the home win. There's no doubting that at this moment in time that Spurs look a far better team than their bitter rivals.
Match Odds
As a player I never had any fear going into this fixture. That came from ending up on the winning side a lot more often than the losing one and having the belief that somehow we'd always find a way to win, or at least not lose. Does the current crop of Arsenal players possess that same belief?
Maybe not and, having been at the Emirates on Wednesday night for the Olympiakos match I can say I don't have too much belief of my own in the current back five. They were all at sea for most of the match and at times looked like they'd only just met each other for the first time on the way to the ground.
Yet Opta tell us that, since Harry Redknapp joined Tottenham, Spurs have won two, drawn three and lost two of the seven meetings in all competitions against Arsenal. It's a stat to respect and, with the prices a little too influenced by short-term rather than long-term form, I'm going to lay Tottenham.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
13 goals were scored in 270 minutes of football played between these two last year, plus a further three in extra-time of Arsenal's 4-1 win at White Hart Lane in the Carling Cup clash. There's just something about this fixture that makes the net bulge.
Opta remind us that Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last 31 matches in all competitions against the Gunners so we have to assume Arsenal will score at least once and I've talked already about how the Gunners' defence looks anything but solid.
I wouldn't be too surprised if this finished 2-2 which is a [15.0] shot but I'm going to be a little bit conservative here and just go with over 3.5 goals instead at [2.7] as this really is one of those matches that could be more like a game out of the NBA than the Premier League and any big scoreline is possible.
Penalty Taken?
Of the 16 goals scored last season between these two, four came from the penalty spot. It's easy to see how in a match like this an adrenaline-fuelled defender can make a clumsy tackle and the ref is pointing to the spot before he knows it. Back a penalty to be taken at [3.3].
To Score
History has a habit of repeating itself. At the start of each spell Emmanuel Adebayor has had at Arsenal, Manchester City, Real Madrid and Spurs he has looked focused, hungry and extremely dangerous, at times unplayable. He's also got plenty of goals at the start of his time with each of those clubs before something happening that has upset him.
We can't trust him as a long-term goalscorer so I'd stay well clear of any fancy prices on him topping the tables come May. But as a short-term prospect he represents excellent value at around [2.7] to get on the scoresheet here. Remember how fired up he was when City beat Arsenal at Eastlands (as it then was) a couple of years ago?.
He scored eight goals in nine games in all competitions for Arsenal against Spurs so maybe a north London derby brings out the best in him, irrespective of who he's playing for. Back him to keep on scoring.
Recommended Bets:
Lay Tottenham against Arsenal @ [2.2]
Back Over 3.5 goals @ [2.7]
Back a penalty to be taken @ [3.3]
Back Emmanuel Adebayor to score @ [2.7]
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