South Africa v Pakistan 3rd ODI Betting: Can Pakistan produce again?

"We don't play on odds as short as South Africa so again the wise money will be a trade on Pakistan"

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Back-to-lay Pakistan at 2.6213/8

Ed Hawkins had an inkling the tourists would improve and after levelling the series at 1-1, he wonders whether they can take the lead in Jo'burg on Sunday...

South Africa v Pakistan
Start time: 08.00GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa
The series is level at 1-1 and South Africa will be wondering what happened to their batting at Centurion. They lost five wickets for 36 runs and never really recovered after that, posting a paltry 191, to lose by six wickets. Dale Steyn returned to the side after missing the first ODI but despite one wicket and an economy rate of under four an over, the tourists were relatively comfortable in chasing the total. They could make one change. Kyle Abbot, who held onto his place for game two but was wicketless, could be replaced by Rory Klieinveldt who was unfortunate in the extreme to miss out having taken four wickets in Bloemfontein. It is possible he suffered a niggle, though.

Pakistan
A much improved Pakistan performance and the last two matches have captured perfectly why they can be so frustrating for gamblers. You never know which side will turn up. It was the bowlers to the fore in Centurion. The giant Mohammad Irfan took four wickets and Junaid Khan two. Saeed Ajmal, the spinner, was also on song with two wickets. There will be concern about Umar Gul's form - he went for more than seven an over - so Wahab Riaz must be in with a shout of plaing this time.

Innings runs
The average first-innings score in the last ten first-innings is 219. Jo'burg has a reputation for big runs, largely because of the South Africa v Australia epic which produced 872 of them in 2008. Recently it has been more of a bowler's wicket. Four times in the last ten games the side batting first have failed to post 154 or more. Pakistan were responsible for one of those, notching 153 in 2007. 15 of the 26 matches have been won by the side fielding first.

Match odds
South Africa could argue that their rhythm was upset by rain in Centurion but they were already on the rocks by the time the heavens opened. There could be more rain around for this clash and, as ever, we would advise that it normally helps the side chasing. Last time out there was some huge money trying to get against South Africa but this time the market is a little calmer. The hosts are 1.594/7 with Pakistan 2.6213/8. We don't play on odds as short as South Africa so again the wise money will be a trade on Pakistan. Before their first wicket on Friday they had drifted to the cusp of 4.003/1 so the value is clear if they can get a foothold.

Top South Africa runscorer
Cricket can be a cruel game. Colin Ingram, star of the show in the second ODI with a century, got a first ball duck in Centurion. Perhaps he will now post another score? He is 5.004/1. Hashim Amla is jolly here at a scandalous 3.7011/4. Graeme Smith is 5.004/1 and AB De Villiers 4.507/2. Farhaan Berhadien, who top scored last time, is 8.4015/2.

Top Pakistan batsman
Kamran Akmal, as discussed in our previous preview, was shunted up to No 3 but the value on him has now gone. In truth we are looking at the powerful middle-order of Younis Khan, Misbah-ul-Haq and Shoaib Malik for runs.

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Back-to-lay Pakistan at 2.6213/8

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Rugby Championship Match Pack: Argentina v South Africa

South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.

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Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6

It should be great occasion in Mendoz on Saturday and Argentina thoroughly deserve their Rugby Championship status. However, whether they can produce a performance that will please their fans is another matter, says Geoffrey Riddle.

Argentina v South Africa, Saturday 20:10

• At the World Cup Argentina played three teams ranked inside the world's top ten: England, Scotland and New Zealand. They scored 35 points in those three matches.

• Subsequently they have played Italy, France twice and South Africa scoring 76 points in those four matches.

• Argentina did not manage to beat any defenders last week in the 27-6 loss to South Africa. What's more they only had 37 per cent territory.

• In contrast, South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.

• In those nine matches South Africa have conceded only eight tries, three of which were in the 36-27 defeat of England in Johannesburg in June.

• Santiago Phelan made just one change to the side that lost 27-6 last week to the Springboks. Martin Rodriguez, the Stade Francais player, replaced Luca Gonzalez Amorosino at fullback but then it was revealed that Juan Martin Hernandez suffered a torn leg muscle in a brutal training session.

• South Africa have some serious injury worries with Pierre Spies ruled out with a broken thumb, while Bryan Habana and Andries Bekker rolled their ankles and missed trainer earlier this week.

Match Preview

Oh to be in Mendoza this weekend for Argentina's debut Test at home against South Africa in the Rugby Championship. Any rugby fan worth his salt and a few thousand quid in the bank should consider it as it promises to be a wonderful occasion... on the pitch.

The home side fully deserve this historic Test after all of the sweat, tears and blood shed by previous Pumas players to get Argentina admitted to the sacred Southern Hemisphere clique but, as mentioned in last week's column, Argentina are barely better than Scotland right now.

As far as statistics go there is little to go on as teams as good as South Africa rarely make it to the depths of South America. What we can deduce, however, is that when teams as good as the Springboks take on teams as bad as Argentina they should be priced as favourites by around six to nine points, which at 8.5 is where Betfair have placed their handicap line.

Where there could be room for manoeuvre, however, is in the total points markets. According to my ratings, matches such as this should have a total points spread of around 41-44, but that is before you take into account Argentina's lamentable efforts to score not only last week, but going back 12 months.

Argentina simply cannot keep the scoreboard ticking over against the better teams. Currently their game plan and their lack of match practice at the highest level results in a lack of serious penetration.

Of course, they have some sublime players, but until the competition wears on, and provided they still have their wonderful spirit and outlook, that simply won't change.

Argentina of course have played only a handful of serious matches in 2012 and although they should improve from last week's run-out they should struggle to accumulate points, let alone cross the whitewash, especially without Hernandez.

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Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6

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Michael Vaughan: Spin, Swann, Bell to toll for South Africa

"But it’s England who are the pre-match bet because of the run they’re in and because they’re at home; at 2.71/1 they offer the potential as a back-to-lay at worst."

The wicket at the Oval is likely to be a dry one so winning the toss and batting first will be the natural gameplan for both captains. But as a pre-toss selection it's England who hold most of the trump cards and should be backed, says Michael Vaughan.

First and foremost let's hope that this Series isn't spoilt by the weather. These are two really good teams up against each other and it would be a massive disappointment if we don't have enough play to establish who is the better of the two right now. Light showers are expected on Thursday and Friday but it's meant to be a lot better over the weekend.

The pitch at the Oval is normally a good one and the news is that it will be a dry track that will offer plenty for the spinners late on in the match. That means that whereas it would normally be an idea to bowl first if you win the toss, both captains will be thinking that chasing any sort of score to win the game will be hard work. So win the toss and bat is probably the wise choice. Graeme Swann and Imran Tahir will be major players in this contest but of the two it's Swann who is the more likely match-winner. Firstly because these are conditions that he knows better (even though Tahir has played plenty of county cricket) and secondly because he has bundles more experience of playing Test cricket. Other reasons why England may have the edge in this match are that South Africa are missing Mark Boucher and that they haven't had much of a chance to get much match practice because of the poor weather.

Either way, this will be far from straightforward for England. If it does something early on and SA are bowling then Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel and Vernon Philander can cause havoc. If they dismiss England's two left-handed openers early then Steyn can have a go at the right-handers who bat between positions three and eight inclusive. We've seen him rip through the best batting line-ups in the world over the years and he won't be feeling nervous about the challenge ahead. If the visitors bat and can make a good start, negating the new-ball threat of James Anderson and Stuart Broad, they can post a big total because theirs is a formidable line-up. You know who they are and the fact that JP Duminy will be coming in at seven is proof that they bat deep; even Philander at eight has first-class hundreds to his name.

As ever in a Test match the start will be crucial because it sets the tempo for the rest of the game and the first hour will give us a big clue as to who will be in the driving seat at the end of day one. The best sides in the world make the most of gaining the initiative and the way England and South Africa play the game, if you lose a session badly, you're half way there to losing the match.

But it's England who are the pre-match bet because of the run they're in and because they're at home; at 2.71/1 they offer the potential as a back-to-lay at worst.

Ravi Bopara will be recalled and bat at number six after Jonny Bairstow never really got going against the West Indies. Ravi will be nervous because he knows he has to perform in this Series but he comes into this game in good form after impressing in the ODI series against the Windies where he looked confident and composed. But the man to side with in terms of getting a score is Ian Bell. He'll be batting down at five after opening in the 50-over matches but that shouldn't bother him and he'll enjoy facing Tahir given that he's such a good player of spin. He's 2.61/1 to score fifty or more and that looks a bet.

For South Africa I like Jacques Kallis for top first innings batsman honours. A lot has been made of his indifferent record over in England but that's even more reason why he'll want to improve upon it on what is surely his last Tour over here. Write this man off at your peril but I certainly won't and he's my choice at 5.54/1.

Back England at 2.71/1
Back Ian Bell to score 50 or more @ 2.61/1
Back Jacques Kallis to be South Africa first innings top batsman @ 5.54/1

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US Politics: All eyes on Newt's last stand in the Deep South

US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Newt Gingrich

"Newt Gingrich, currently third in the delegates race with just two Southern wins to his name, has indicated that he will withdraw if suffering another bad night."

More news and views from Paul Krishnamurty as the race to become the Republican candidate reaches the Deep South.

Tuesday's Republican primaries could be a make or break night in the race to line up against President Obama in November. While [1.17] favourite Mitt Romney retains a substantial lead in delegates, these two contests in the Deep South are far from fertile territory for the man labelled a 'Massachuesetts Liberal' by his rivals.

The betting for both Alabama and Mississippi suggests a couple of genuine three-runner races, and if anyone can complete the double, they will emerge with significant momentum.

Newt Gingrich, currently third in the delegates race with just two Southern wins to his name, has indicated that he will withdraw if suffering another bad night. If so, that could be fantastic news for Rick Santorum, who won Kansas easily on Saturday and would then be in a position to dominate the anti-Romney vote. Likewise, a win for Romney in either contest would strengthen the air of inevitability about his candidacy.

The problem for both men, however, is that Gingrich increasingly looks like starting as favourite for both contests, potentially adding a further twist to this tight race. Today's polls fail to clarity the picture. The three candidates are separated by no more than four percentage points in these two states, whereas two national polls show either Romney or Santorum 4% ahead, depending which firm one wants to believe.

Paul Krishnamuty with the latest on events across the pond where the race to become the Republican candidate in the presidential elections goes on. Mitt Romney may have won Ohio but it was Rick Santorum who was the 'moral winner' of the night....

The race for the Republican nomination goes into overdrive on Tuesday - will Mitt Romney seal the deal or will Messrs Santorum, Gingrich and Paul scupper him once again? Our own Paul - Krishnamurty - explains the complex voting process and selects the best bets......

Romney now [1.27] for the Republican nomination after holding off Santorum challenge to extend lead ahead of Super Tuesday bonanza...

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The Joker's Bet of the Day: Leaping for joy in south Yorkshire

The Joker's Bet Of The Day / The Joker / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.77] in Sheffield United v Scunthorpe

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way...

A Bradley Wright-Phillips hat-trick?

Really?

The Joker's been robbed, you might say.

As the world recovers its senses, there will hopefully be no after-shocks. Not in Yorkshire, at least, where 13 of Sheffield United's 16 home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals. The same's happened in three of Scunthorpe's last five on the road.

Opportunities like this don't come around every year.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.77] in Sheffield United v Scunthorpe

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

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South Africa: Igugu heads strong Met field

News / Gary Crispe / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Igugu is the star entry in the J&B Met.

"Igugu, the winner of nine of her 11 starts in South Africa including the Group 1 Durban July, has recovered from a slight setback and is a hot ante-post favourite..."

There were few surprises when the final field was announced for the R2.5-million J&B Met to be run over 2000m at Kenilworth on Saturday 28 January, with South Africa's reigning Horse of the Year Igugu heading a fantastic field of 16...

Australian-bred Igugu, the winner of nine of her 11 starts in South Africa including the Group 1 Durban July, has recovered from a slight setback and is a hot ante-post favourite for the finale to the Sizzling Summer Season in the Western Cape.

Bravura, Tales Of Bravery and talented three-year-old Gimmethegreenlight, winner of the recent Queen's Plate, are all in the line-up.

Absentees include Summer Cup winner Dancewiththedevil and Charity Mile winner Piere Jourdan as well as three-year-olds Variety Club and Jackson, who have accepted for the Cape Derby instead.

Igugu suffered a setback in training and had to miss the Paddock Stakes, her planned final preparatory run but the Mike de Kock stable says she has hardly missed a beat in getting back into full work.

She will be ridden by her regular jockey Anthony Delpech.

De Kock has also accepted with his Brazilian-bred gelding Ilsanpietro who won the Java Handicap and finished second in both the Victory Moon and the Summer Cup and will have Weichong Marwing in the irons.

The Joey Ramsden-trained Bravura , who won the Cape Derby two years ago but has only won two races since has been allocated top weight of 60kg and will meet Igugu on 0.5kg worse terms than in last year's Durban July when he finished seventh.

He ran in last year's Met and was expected to do much better than seventh behind Past Master but this term has won the Green Point Stakes and was fourth in the L'Ormarins Queen's Plate and looks to be back to his best.

He will have champion jockey Anton Marcus in the irons.

Smart chaser Blazing Tempo landed the most prestigious victory of her career over fences so far when taking the Grade 2 Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse on Sunday afternoon....

Somersby (BSP of [5.8]) finally gained the big victory his consistent efforts deserved when wearing down Finian's Rainbow in the 25th Anniversary of the VC Chase at Ascot......

Betting.Betfair columnist Donald McCain fired in a quartet of winners at Haydock on Saturday......

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Cricket World Cup Betting: England v South Africa

Match Previews / Andrew Hughes / 05 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Botha could be back for the Proteas

"If England lose here, they will be playing knock-out cricket much sooner in the tournament than they’d hoped."

Wednesday's shock defeat to Ireland has thrown England's plans into chaos. Can they get back on track against the formidable looking South Africans?

London Start Time: 04:00

Venue and Conditions
This venue's previous game in Chennai was a non-event as New Zealand crushed Kenya, but the pitch appeared to conform to type, being slow, low and offering nothing for the quicker bowlers. Spinners will have more joy here, but it is essentially a very good track to bat on.

Team News
Kevin Pietersen, Graeme Swann and Paul Collingwood sat out Friday's training session but are expected to be fit for Sunday, although Collingwood may miss out if Ravi Bopara is given his chance. And given his poor performances so far this tournament, James Anderson may be replaced by Ajmal Shahzad.

South Africa's only problem is whether to go with three pace bowlers, three specialist spinners or an extra batsman. On a pitch that should offer some turn, the likely call is for Johan Botha to return at the expense of Morne van Wyk.

Match Odds
If England lose here, they will be playing knock-out cricket much sooner in the tournament than they'd hoped. Two wins from three is the equation and at the moment, it is anyone's guess whether they have it in them to get to the last eight. The general trend under Andy Flower has been continual improvement, but they were woeful in the field against Ireland and can't afford to put in another shocker.

If you wanted to make the case for an England win, you would point out that they have tend to be at their peak against better teams and have a good record against Sunday's opponents. But the addition of Imran Tahir has made South Africa just about the complete team. On paper, they outgun England in every department and they are justifiably [1.56] favourites to wrap up a quarter-final place.

Top Batsman
For England, either of the in-form Jonathan Trott at [5.0] or Andrew Strauss at [4.3] would be sensible picks while for South Africa, A B De Villiers [5.0] is in equally fine touch and hit a half-century last time he played here.

Featured Market
Jacques Kallis has yet to get going in this World Cup and for the moment we can side with Trott at [1.8] or better in the 'Trott v Kallis' market

Best Bet

South Africa to beat England at [1.56]

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World Cup Betting: Has South Africa's time come?

South Africa / Frank Gregan / 28 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Jacques Kallis power South Africa to World Cup glory?

"South Africa are [5.6] to back to lift the trophy which given their 'previous' is very skinny."

Often fancied pre-tournament, the Proteas have a reputation for disappointing their backers. Frank Gregan discusses their chances of overcoming fear of failure this time...

South Africa started their World Cup campaign with an emphatic victory over the West Indies last Thursday. They came into the tournament as the second favourites with only the hosts India shorter in the betting. It's easy to see why as South Africa have a squad packed with talent and experience.

Many pundits believe that this will be their year. A quick look through the archives will tell you this is often the case prior to the World Cup getting under way but they always end up underachieving once it comes to the business end.

Semi-finalists in 1992, 1999 and 2007 is as good as it has got for the Proteas, a record that has earned them a reputation of being bigger bottlers than Coca Cola! There's no reason to suspect that things will be any different this time around. The pressure increases as each trophy-less World Cup passes. There's no heat during the group stages, there's always the next game to put it right but when sudden death comes around the South Africans wilt like hot spinach.

Nothing instils fear of failure as much as failure. It's a cycle of failure, you fail and you feel despair which means that you get scared of failing which means that next time around you fail again and so the cycle continues. Sports psychologists believe it's all about the 'here and now' and 'past performance has no relevance to the present.' Yeah right, good luck telling that to a guy who has lost two World Cup semis!

One way of getting rid of the monsters between the ears is to get young blood into the side. The young are fearless because they have yet to experience the pain of flopping and not fulfilling expectations.

Another way is to break the vicious cycle. Most players who fail feel despair but that's not always the case with some individuals. These players are often not the most talented but because of their personality they take defeat and victory with the same balanced view. Consequently they don't care when they fail or at least they don't beat themselves up about it, which means they are unlikely to choke the next time.

There used to be plenty of those type of characters in the game but with much higher professional standards being applied these days they are getting rarer. You know the guys we're talking about; those who have just won the World Cup Final with a boundary off the last ball and say "Get in there - let's get to the bar!" and those who have just lost a World Cup semi final by 10 wickets and say "Oh dear - let's get to the bar!"

It's a given that South Africa will make the last eight but from there on in it will come down to how much self belief they can muster. They will be three matches away from being crowned World Champions, that's three massive occassions during which they mustn't choke. They are currently [5.6] to back to lift the trophy which given their 'previous' is very skinny.

To put it in perspective, it's possible to play about with the figures and back England at [10.0] the West Indies at [29] and New Zealand at [30] and get a better return for your investment should any of those three teams lift the trophy compared to the return you would get by only backing the perennial bottlers. Three for the price of one - you wouldn't get that from Coca Cola!

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