Ante-post 
/
Matt Gardner / 27 March 2012 /
Leave a Comment 
Doncaster stages the Lincoln on March 31.
"judging on his Lingfield win, when back to his best, it is difficult to argue that he [Mull of Killough] does not have just as good a chance of gaining victory."
Saturday March 31 sees the seasonal return of British Turf Flat racing, with Doncaster's Lincoln Handicap being the traditional curtain raiser that urges Flat racing fans to wake up from their winter hibernation. Timeform's Matt Gardner searches through the field in the hope of unearthing a spot of ante-post value...
Currently trading as favourite for the Lincoln Handicap is the Roger Varian-trained Eton Forever, a lightly-raced five-year-old who has visited the track just eight times since making his debut in April 2010. Successful in the Spring Mile, a consolation race to the Lincoln, at the meeting 12 months ago, Eton Forever marked himself down as a pattern race winner in waiting that day, travelling powerfully before bursting clear in the final furlong and having more in hand than the winning margin of three and three-quarter lengths.
However, a trio of defeats later and there has to be questions over his standing as the market leader, for all he came close to matching that Spring Mile form when runner-up to Man of Action on his final start last year at the same venue. While Eton Forever's two standout efforts have both been at Doncaster and it is very possible that he can return at his peak, taking the [7.0] currently available does not make much appeal.
Another that is prominent in the market is the William Haggas-trained Fury, who finished fifth to Frankel in the 2000 Guineas. Fury was unbeaten in his two starts as a two-year-old and showed smart form when winning the valuable Tattersalls Millions at Newmarket.
His Guineas run the following season was promising, too, confirming impressions that he was a Group winner in the making, but in even more emphatic style than Eton Forever he failed to live up to that billing throughout the rest of the season, not beating a single rival home in his final three starts.
Fury has since been gelded and has come in for notable market support but, again, the [8.6] available at present smacks as being on the skinny side for one with obvious doubts surrounding him in a race as competitive as this.
One that is more than worthy of consideration is Edinburgh Knight, who won his final two races of 2011. Although he had begun to look out of sorts, with disappointing efforts in the Stewards' Cup, Great St Wilfrid and Ayr Silver Cup serving as evidence, Edinburgh Knight bounced back with a win in the apprentice handicap on Champions Day at Ascot before improving on anything that had gone before when achieving listed success at Kempton in November. The suspicion, however, is that he is something of an "all or nothing" performer, making him difficult to fully commit to for all that he may run well.
Godolphin break new ground on the opening day of the 2012 Flat season by fielding their first ever runners in the Lincoln. Both Start Right and the aforementioned Man of Action have been plying their trade in Dubai over the winter, and it is the former that is marginally preferred on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, although the duo come with negatives attached.
Start Right has been unable to get his head in front since July 2010, and excuses are seemingly on the thin side after curling up under pressure on his latest start. Man of Action boasts a win over Saturday's course and distance, when finishing just over a length and a half in front of Eton Forever, but he has looked awkward in his two starts at Meydan and does not seem one to be placing any faith in at present.
Smarty Socks, trained by David O'Meara, enjoyed a fantastic year in 2011, winning twice and racking up a number of solid efforts. His penultimate start last year, when runner-up at Ascot to potential pattern race performer Pastoral Player and his previous effort when successful at that same track were both career bests, and his final start of the year is worth forgiving as it may just have been one to many for the campaign. Smarty Socks appeals as one that will give you a run for your money, although he will typically be a hostage to his hold-up/weave through the field run style.
One that is really rather interesting indeed is Leviathan, trained by Tony Newcombe, although there is a very real possibility that he will not make the final field.
The five-year-old put up a career-best when winning at Salisbury off the same mark as he will run off on Saturday (89) and was arguably deserving of extra credit given the second, third and fourth were possibly at an advantage as the field split, Leviathan having to work hard to make up the forfeited ground. Things didn't really go to plan thereafter, but he has a reasonable excuse for his latest two poor efforts as he looks a non-stayer at a mile and a quarter. A return to a mile and this track (two runs here have yielded two of his better performances) are definite pluses, and he is worth supporting if making the Lincoln field. If he doesn't, he'll be worth backing for the Spring Mile.
A final one to mention is Mull of Killough, who scored on his debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam at Lingfield in January. The six-year-old finished third in the 2010 Lincoln, off the same BHA rating that he will race off on Saturday, and the Doncaster handicap has appealed as the ideal starting point for this horse for some time. His current price of [22.0] is almost double what his starting price was two years ago and, judging on his Lingfield win, when back to his best, it is difficult to argue that he does not have just as good a chance of gaining victory.
The Flat season could not get underway in much more competitive style than the Lincoln Handicap, and it should prove to be an exciting and informative event. Leviathan would be the selection were he a certain runner but, with doubts about him making the cut, he cannot be recommended as an ante-post selection, although he is well worth supporting in this contest should he make it, or in the Spring Mile should he not. Mull of Killough also appeals as one of the best value bets in the field, particularly with doubts creeping in regards the top two in the market.
Recommendation
Back Mull of Killough @ [22.0] for the Lincoln Handicap
There are three meetings in Ireland this weekend but the one that stands out is at the Curragh, as it signals the start of the Irish Flat season proper. Timeform look at the pick of the action........
With temperatures predicted to hit 20°C it isn't going to feel much like the cold season at Lingfield on Saturday, where the Winter Derby head's a quality card. Timeform's Adam Brookes takes a look at the ten-furlong Group 3 feature and warms to the claims of one horse in particular......
This weekend saw Roger Charlton's unbeaten three-year-old Top Offer attract market support for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 5......
Amazon Watches Center
Three Against The Field 
