UAE 2000 Guineas: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Godolphin haven't always enjoyed great success with their recruits from Australia but few will have had better form than Long John and he should be good enough to win this

The UAE 2000 Guineas is the feature race on another good Meydan card and Timeform provide you with their assessment of the runners...

Safety Check was kept busy as a juvenile, winning 3 times, and would have pushed Emirates Flyer even closer on return had he not had to wait for a run. Already stays 1m but this looks a better race.

Jallota had just the one win for Mick Channon, but did hold his own in some good races, particularly when fourth to No Nay Never in the Prix Morny. Trip not guaranteed to suit on first start for new yard.

Paximadia won 4 of his 8 starts in Australia, including a Grade 2 at Caulfield when last seen. Interesting to see how he goes in the market compared to Long John.

Journeyman is nothing special judged on his 2 starts at Meydan this year, soundly beaten behind Emirates Flyer on return and looked hard work when fifth to He's No Saint last week. Others preferred.

Wednaan cost €450,000, and made a winning debut at Yarmouth last year. Runner-up has at least franked the form and he looks sure to improve a lot for that, so not ruled out despite lack of experience.

Long John won the Caulfied Guineas last year, one of five victories for Peter Snowden. Finished ahead of Shamus Award that day who won the Cox Plate (Long John behind) subsequently so form looks very strong.

My Catch was a  dual winner in France last year for David Brown, his only failure coming on soft ground. Ran well when third to Emirates Flyer on return but step up in trip not guaranteed to suit.

Nezar looked awkward at times last year, but still won twice including a nursery at Chester. Didn't put up much resistance behind Emirates Flyer on return and shouldn't be good enough.

Asmar is a half-brother to the top class Zagora (Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner) and has shaped with plenty of promise in a pair of maidens at this track. Will need to break on terms in this company.

Emirates Flyer can't be knocked for toughness or consistency, and made it 3 wins from 7 starts when beating Safety Check here last time. Should be fine at the trip but this is a better race.

Full Combat has one win from his 4 starts in South Africa last year, and not totally disgraced in a Grade 1 on his final start. Eyecatching return when fifth to Emirates Flyer and could easily reverse form.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Long John
2. Full Combat
3. Asmer

Timeform View: Godolphin haven't always enjoyed great success with their recruits from Australia but few will have had better form than Long John and he should be good enough to win this. Full Combat can improve past several who contested the prep for this race and chase him home whilst a big run from the maiden, Asmar, wouldn't surprise, although he does need to break better than he has done to date.

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Irish 1000 Guineas: Judge features among acceptors

Just The Judge, narrowly denied by Sky Lantern in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, is among 18 remaining entries in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh on Sunday...

Trained by Charlie Hills, the filly lost her unbeaten record at Newmarket and connections are keen to stick to a mile for now.

Big Break missed Newmarket on account of the fast ground, with trainer Dermot Weld hoping there is rain in the build-up to the Irish Classic.

Aidan O'Brien's Moth, who caught the eye when running on into third at Newmarket and has been strongly fancied for the Oaks at Epsom, is still in the shake-up for the Guineas.

O'Brien's Snow Queen also stayed on pleasingly into fifth and may also run along with stablemates Just Pretending and Hanky Panky.

Richard Hannon's Maureen was just behind Snow Queen in sixth, while the Eddie Lynam-trained Viztoria is also in the frame but has never competed over a mile.

Newmarket Guineas eighth Masarah remains in the hunt for the Clive Brittain team, with the Elaine Burke-trained Exactement still entered.

John Oxx has left in What Style and Harasiya, with Andy Oliver having supplemented Dubaya, who could join stablemate Uleavemebreathless.

Jim Bolger also has a couple in contention in Rehn's Nest and Bunairgead.

Mizzava and Harpist complete the list ahead of Friday's declaration stage.

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Myth-busting: 2000 Guineas is the best Derby trial

"This year’s Guineas winner Dawn Approach has some illustrious hoofprints to fill, but this “myth” provides encouragement that he can do so, for it is not really a myth at all..."

Simon Rowlands analyses the recognised Derby Trials in an attempt to discover which provides the best pointers for Epsom...

This saying is not as popular as it once was - indeed, it took no small amount of Googling to relocate it - but the idea that the best trial for the second colts' classic is the first colts' classic has a certain ring of truth to it. 

Against that, the Guineas is run at a mile at Newmarket, while the Derby is run at just over a mile and a half at Epsom. It is asking something of a young horse to excel at both in the space of less than a month. 

As with many a "myth", its veracity depends in no small part on how you look at the evidence. Judged on winners alone, the Guineas is equal on four with the Dante for three-year-old "trials" this century, though in New Approach's case he ran in the Irish Guineas between defeat at Newmarket and success at Epsom. 

If we take a horse's most recent run prior to the Derby as its definitive trial for that race, the Dante is alone at the top, but from 28 representatives this century against 18 for the Guineas. The strike-rate for horses going to Epsom straight from the Guineas is higher than the same for the Dante, in other words. 

Regular readers of this blog will know that wins, and wins alone, can be a crude measure, and that strike-rates are often little better: the former disregards the wealth of nuanced information from the majority of horses that do not win, while the latter fails to allow for opportunity, such as reflected in field size. 

One way to look at this issue is to consider the percentage of rivals beaten by horses in a given trial and then the percentage of rivals beaten by that cohort in the Derby itself. Percentage of rivals beaten reflects, for instance, that it is better to finish second of 15 than second of five. 

There is one slight drawback with this approach, and that is our old friend Regression To The Mean, which dictates that winners of trials will be punished compared to horses out the back. If you have beaten 100% of your rivals in a trial, you can at best match that in the Derby itself; conversely, if you have finished plum last in a trial you can do no worse (and may do better) in the big race itself. There is a tendency for extremes to head towards the middle. 

An adjustment for this phenomenon alters the figures somewhat, but not the ranking, and has the Guineas as top on a factor of 0.78 (a horse that had beaten 50% of its rivals in the Guineas could be expected to beat 39% of its rivals in the Derby), followed by Leopardstown's Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial on 0.76, the Dante on 0.74 and the Chester Vase on 0.68. 

One interesting consequence of this is that it implies finishing second in this year's Guineas (beating 91.7% of rivals, with an expectation of beating 71.5% at Epsom) would be better than winning the Chester Vase (expectation of beating 68% of rivals at Epsom). 

The figures for all trials (latest run only) which produced five or more runners in the Derby this century are shown here: 

By this measure the Guineas is indeed the best trial for the Derby, but only just. By other measures, it could be argued that it is not, but only just. 

This year's Guineas winner Dawn Approach has some illustrious hoofprints to fill, but this "myth" provides encouragement that he can do so, for it is not really a myth at all. 

While the figures quoted are primarily descriptive of past events, I will, for interest, calculate expected % rivals beaten when all the named trials have been run and post those expectations in the comments section below.

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2000 Guineas: Dawn stars on Newmarket list

Long-time favourite Dawn Approach tops 14 colts confirmed for Saturday's 2000 Guineas at Newmarket...

The Jim Bolger-trained colt has dominated the betting for the 2000 Guineas after ending his 2012 campaign unbeaten in six starts, culminating in an impressive victory over stablemate Leitir Mor in the Dewhurst Stakes.

Victory for the Dawn Approach could provide owner Godolphin with a little comfort after a torrid few days following the Mahmood Al Zarooni drugs scandal.

Leitir Mor is also among the contenders for the Guineas, with Aidan O'Brien having the pick of four from Cristoforo Colombo, George Vancouver, Lines Of Battle and Mars.

Richard Hannon appears to have a strong hand with Craven Stakes victor Toronado and last year's Racing Post Trophy second Van Der Neer.

Hannon has, however, taken out Craven Stakes runner-up Havana Gold.

Free Handicap winner Garswood is set to represent Richard Fahey, while Greenham third Moohaajim is Marco Botti's sole contender.

Correspondent, Dont Bother Me, Glory Awaits and the Sir Henry Cecil-trained Kyllachy Rise complete the list of possible runners.

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1000 Guineas: Moth added to Newmarket field

Aidan O'Brien's Moth has been supplemented for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday...

Beaten in both starts as a juvenile, the daughter of Galileo appeared much improved when running out a most impressive winner of a Curragh maiden on her three-year-old debut at the Curragh in early April.

O'Brien revealed afterwards the first fillies' Classic of the season would be considered and she has now been added to the field at a cost of £30,000.

The master of Ballydoyle also has Magical Dream and Snow Queen in the mix for the 1000 Guineas.

Sir Henry Cecil's hugely impressive Nell Gwyn scorer Hot Snap is the ante-post favourite and features among 18 confirmations.

Charlie Hills' star filly Just The Judge remains in the hunt, as does the Mikel Delzangles-trained French challenger What A Name.

Richard Hannon could saddle Fred Darling winner Maureen and Nell Gwyn runner-up Sky Lantern, but one significant absentee is William Haggas' Rosdhu Queen.

Unbeaten as a juvenile but beaten into fourth when seemingly failing to stay seven furlongs in the Fred Darling, the three-year-old is set to revert to sprint distances.

Haggas said: "We think she'll be better over shorter and we've decided to give up on the Guineas.

"She worked at the weekend and is in great form.

"I think that race (Fred Darling) has done a lot of good, but she needs to be better than that at a mile and I can't see it.

"She has a lot of speed, she is good at going fast, so let's use that as a major weapon."

Asked where Rosdhu Queen could run next, Haggas said: "I haven't got as far as that yet. I'll get there."

Leading Irish handler Dermot Weld has Big Break and Rasmeyaa in the field, while other contenders include Roz, Ollie Olga and Diaminda.

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1000 Guineas News: Queen to start at Newbury

The William Haggas-trained filly was unbeaten in four outings last year, winning the Lowther Stakes at York and the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket on her final two runs...

Johnny Murtagh is set to partner 1000 Guineas contender Rosdhu Queen as she makes her seasonal bow at Newbury on Saturday week...

The William Haggas-trained filly was unbeaten in four outings last year, winning the Lowther Stakes at York and the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket on her final two runs.

Rosdhu Queen was ridden by Murtagh on the latter occasion and Haggas will give him the leg up again as the daughter of Invincible Spirit tackles the Dubai Duty Free Stakes, a race better know as the Fred Darling.

Haggas said: "Johnny Murtagh will be offered the ride on her in the Guineas. He'll come and ride her next weekend in the Fred Darling and we'll see how that goes."

Haggas also has once-raced Lady Nouf in the 1000 Guineas picture, with the Leicester winner set to head to Newmarket for the  Nell Gwyn Stakes.

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2000 Guineas: Oxx's Akeed misses opening Classic with injury

News / Timeform / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Born To Sea emulate half-brother Sea The Stars (yellow)?

"Oxx's sole 2000 Guineas representative is now likely to be Born To Sea ([12.0])..."

Akeed Mofeed, well backed in recent days for the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, will miss the race through injury.

Trainer John Oxx has been forced to rule his Timeform 114p-rated colt out of the first Classic of the season after he found him to be lame.

Bruce Raymond, racing manager to owner Jaber Abdullah, said: "It was a bit of a shock when John told me.

"He'll be fine in the long-term and he'll only miss a week but it's enough to force him out of the Guineas unfortunately."

A five-length winner of a Leopardstown maiden in September, he was beaten in the Beresford Stakes on his last start at two when he was reportedly unsuited by the testing ground.

Raymond added that although the sun of Dubawi still had the option of the Guineas up until this setback, Oxx had always viewed him more as a Derby (currently trading at [15.0] for Epsom version) horse.

"It's only a strain, it's nothing serious, but John thought it better not to run in the Guineas," he continued.

"Anyway, he's always thought the Derby would be more his race, even last year.

"The plan now is to run him in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. That's the tried and tested route for a lot of the Irish Derby horses.

"It's a shame but there we go. He'd been a bit worried about him for the last few days and now we know where we stand."

Despite his injury, Akeed Mofeed, who features in the latest edition of Timeform Horses to Follow 2012, is still a horse to keep well on side this year.

Oxx's sole 2000 Guineas representative is now likely to be Born To Sea ([12.0]), with the market headed by Camelot at [4.1] and substantial gamble Most Improved at [5.7].

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Trainer Shark Hanlon has issued an upbeat bulletin regards his Grand National runner Alfa Beat, suggesting that punters who overlook the horse do so at their peril......

Thomas Gibney's Lion Na Bearnai showed thorough stamina reserves to deny the Edward o'Grady-trained Out Now in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse......

Get Me Out Of Here finally landed the decent prize his consistent efforts have deserved when winning the Grade Two Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle at Fairyhouse......

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Guineas News: Smart looking to send his Classic hopefuls to trials

News / Timeform / 01 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Newmarket Racecourse

"Romeo Foxtrot and Ptolemaic have also done exceptionally well."

Bryan Smart is keen to give his three Newmarket Guineas entries a run in one of the trials to assess their prospects of going for Classic glory.

The North Yorkshire trainer has Foxtrot Romeo (Timeform master rating of 99) and Ptolemaic (97) in the 2000 Guineas and Excelette (102) in the 1000 Guineas.

All three are big prices in the ante-post markets for their respective events, but Smart reports them to have wintered well.

"Excelette has done really well through the winter. I'm very pleased with her," said Smart.

"Romeo Foxtrot and Ptolemaic have also done exceptionally well.

"All three will probably take in a trial and we'll see what we do after that.

"They all had good first seasons and have done very well during the winter."

In other Guineas news, Mick Channon is weighing up options for his exciting filly Samitar (112).

The daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar showed her quality during a fine juvenile campaign, winning an Ascot Group 3 and a Newmarket sales race.

She was also beaten just a head by Lyric Of Light (114p) in the Group 1 Fillies' Mile and Channon is looking forward to seeing her return to the track as a three-year-old.

"Samitar is great, I'm very pleased with her," said the West Ilsey trainer.

"I'm not quite sure where she'll go first, she might run in a sales race, but we'll see."

Samitar is currently [30/0] for the 1000 Guineas and the same price for the Epsom Oaks.

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Monterosso lands the Dubai World Cup, the world's richest race, at Meydan......

Cirrus Des Aigles gamely held St Nicholas Abbey to land the spoils in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan......

Cityscape lands the Dubai Duty Free under James Doyle at Meydan......

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Australian Derby: Strike The Stars to take in Rosehill Guineas en route

News / Timeform / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Blake Shinn: Rides Strike The Stars

"Strike The Stars didn't get the breaks when only seventh behind old nemesis Mosheen in the Randwick Guineas last time."

Trainer Anthony Cummings has said that his three-year-old Strike The Stars will swerve the Doncaster Mile and instead head for the Rosehill Guineas on his way to the Australian Derby...

Cummings confirmed that the Doncaster was always seen a a fall-back for the Savabeel gelding and, with the Australian Guineas runner-up in fine form, the Rosehill Guineas is very much the plan, with the $1.5 million Australian Derby (currently trading at [13.0]) on April 14 the main target.

Rosehill's $2.25 million BMW on April 7, in which he will meet older horses at weight-for-age, is still a possibility and he trades at [18.0] for that race, also over 2400m.

Blake Shinn will take over aboard Strike The Stars when he goes in the middle leg of Sydney's autumn triple crown for three-year-olds on Saturday, last year's Group 3 Gloaming Stakes winner looking for his first victory at the highest level.

Strike The Stars didn't get the breaks when only seventh behind old nemesis Mosheen in the Randwick Guineas last time, the filly having beaten him by three lengths in in the Australian Guineas at Flemington earlier in the month.

Mosheen herself, who is trading as short-priiced favourite for the Australian Oaks and at [24.0] for the same day's Doncaster Handicap, will reportedly attempt to further her claims for either race in the $400,000 Vinery Stud Stakes on April 7.

In other news, Corey Brown will ride Paul Messara's Rekindled Alliance is the Guinease should the horse take his chance.

Last year's winner Sweet Lightning has been taken out of the Lincoln, in which 2010 victor Penitent will now carry top weight at Doncaster on Saturday......

Godolphin's Gamilati has undergone surgery to remove a chip from her near-fore ankle and may now be forced to miss the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6.......

Though the culmination of the all-weather season, it's difficult to see Winter Derby day at Lingfield as anything other than the beginning on the new Flat season given the quality of horses and the promising performances on show. David Johnson takes a look at them from the Timeform ratings perspective......

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1000 Guineas Betting: Gamilati bid in doubt

News / Timeform / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Gamilati has been put on the easy list

Godolphin's Gamilati has undergone surgery to remove a chip from her near-fore ankle and may now be forced to miss the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6....

Last year's Cherry Hinton Stakes winner Gamilati, is unbeaten in two starts at Meydan this year and has raised her Timeform rating to a lofty 120, putting her at the head of the list for the 1000 Guineas.

However, the Mahmood Al Zarooni-trained filly will need time to recuperate and may therefore miss her intended run in the classic at HQ.

Simon Crisford, Godolphin racing manager, explained on the Godolphin website "Gamilati had a very good winter in Dubai, winning the UAE 1,000 Guineas impressively, but unfortunately she has required surgery to remove a chip from her near-fore ankle.

"She will have a little bit of time out of training and when she starts back in a few weeks we will reassess what her programme will be for the summer."
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Trainer Anthony Cummings has said that his three-year-old Strike The Stars will swerve the Doncaster Mile and instead head for the Rosehill Guineas on his way to the Australian Derby......

Last year's winner Sweet Lightning has been taken out of the Lincoln, in which 2010 victor Penitent will now carry top weight at Doncaster on Saturday......

Though the culmination of the all-weather season, it's difficult to see Winter Derby day at Lingfield as anything other than the beginning on the new Flat season given the quality of horses and the promising performances on show. David Johnson takes a look at them from the Timeform ratings perspective......

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1000 Guineas News: Hannon's Best on good Terms with herself in gallop

News / Timeform / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Richard Hughes aboard Best Terms

""Eight of the last 11 winners have gone to Newmarket without a prep-race, and I would not be fussed about taking in the Fred Darling route."

Dual Group 2 winner Best Terms came through her first serious gallop of 2012 with flying colours.

The Queen Mary and Lowther Stakes winner was ridden by trainer Richard Hannon's stable jockey Richard Hughes in the seven-furlong spin with Misdemeanour and Cresta Star on Tuesday.

"That was good - she settled and she wanted to do it for me," Hughes told richardhannonracing.com.

Richard Hannon jnr was equally bullish about the filly rated 116 with Timeform, saying: "That was the first piece of fast work that Best Terms has done this year, and we could not have been happier.

"Misdemeanour has won both her races so far and is an 85-rated filly, so you had to be impressed, and it is always a relief when they look to have trained on."

Best Terms is currently trading at [32.0] for the 1000 Guineas on May 6 and connections know there is no guarantee she will stay the mile.

Will Edmeades, racing manager to owners the Barnett family, said: "Obviously, the fact that she is so exuberant in her races throws up concerns as to how long her stamina will last, but she settled better this morning and if she does switch-off there must be a chance.

"We will see how she progresses over the next three weeks, but I would not be averse in going straight for the Guineas.

"Eight of the last 11 winners have gone to Newmarket without a prep-race, and I would not be fussed about taking in the Fred Darling route.

"It is a case of so far, so good, and the dream is still very much alive, and we have nothing to lose by testing Best Terms' stamina early on as there are very few opportunities for three-year-old sprinters in the first half of the season.

"You would not be wanting to take on the older speedballs in the Palace House Stakes at the Guineas meeting, so we might as well go the Classic route and if that fails, we can come back in distance at Royal Ascot and take on the mighty Black Caviar in the Golden Jubilee. Now that should be fun!"

Best Terms' only defeat came in the last of her five starts when she finished fifth in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket in September, shaping as if clearly not herself.

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The Group 1 Coolmore Classic (due off 05:10 GMT) is the feature at Rosehill on Saturday, and top-weight Secret Admirer has been allotted stall six of 14 for the fillies and mares showpiece....

It is said that there are few certainties in life other than death and taxes. After a hectic Cheltenham Festival, jumps handicapper Phil Turner can add a few more to that list- whichever lane you change into during a motorway traffic jam immediately becomes the slowest, there are far more lows than highs when you're a lifelong Evertonian and, of course, Big Buck's will continue to remain unbeaten over hurdles.........

Joseph O'Brien has played down speculation linking him with the mount on So You Think in the Dubai World Cup on Saturday week....

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Randwick Guineas: Mosheen makes history

Australia / Timeform / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mosheen has completed the Australian Guineas – Randwick Guineas double

"Mosheen.. is currently the second highest Timeform rated three-year-old filly over 1600m to 2000m, behind Atlantic Jewel (128+)."

The records keep tumbling for crack filly Mosheen who overcame difficulties last Saturday to win the G1 Randwick Guineas over 1600m at headquarters...

The win by Mosheen made her the first filly to win the Randwick Guineas since it's inauguration in 2006, replacing the time honoured Canterbury Guineas that had been previously run over 1900m dating back to 1935.

In addition Mosheen is the first horse to have won the Australian Guineas - Randwick Guineas double, as well as the first filly to win the treble of Group o1 races, VRC Oaks-Australian Guineas-Randwick Guineas, something we may not see achieved again for a very long time.

It takes an exceptional filly to win those three races and Mosheen has certainly proved herself that. However, to some extent she still lives in the shadow of another filly, the unbeaten Atlantic Jewel who treated Mosheen with such contempt in the 1000 Guineas over 1600m at Caulfield last October.

Admittedly Mosheen has improved a great deal since then, but so too has Atlantic Jewel and even trainer Robert Smerdon who regards Mosheen as the best horse he has trained, is not keen to engage Atlantic Jewel anytime soon.

In its short history the Randwick Guineas has quickly made a name for itself as quality race, capable of producing good horses.

The 2011 renewal won by Ilovethiscity has not produced as many subsequent winners as the other renewals have but Queensland Derby Shootoff winner was in that field.

However the 2010 renewal produced subsequent G1 AJC Derby winner Shoot Out, G1 Epsom Handicap winner Captain Sonador, G1 Rosehill Guineas winner Zabrasive, G1 SA Derby winner Kidnapped and G1 Railway Stakes winner Gathering.

The previous four renewals have produced nine subsequent G1 winners and 20 overall Stakes winners - not bad for a race only in its infancy.

Last Saturday's Randwick Guineas was looked upon as a match between G1 winning gelding Manawanui and Mosheen, however with 200m to travel neither looked a chance of victory.

Manawanui who again travelled close to the lead failed to detonate when put under pressure while Mosheen was still some five lengths off the lead and looking for clear running.

Once rider Dan Nikolic angled Mosheen into the open she accelerated like the good horse she is quickly gathering up the leaders to win surging away by a neck.

The final assessment of the race was not straightforward. In this instance the margin is not reflective of the merit of the win plus second and third placegetters Said Com and Laser Hawk were both coming off restricted class races both factors tending to hold the race back to a value under the five year average.

Others factors in the mix when assessing the quality of the race are, a bunched finish, the fact Mosheen was coming off a career peak effort at her previous start fourteen days prior and those efforts are seldom backed up next start. Mosheen also suffered buffeting during the race that cost her valuable ground.

Consequently Mosheen ran to a 115+ Timeform rating some nine pounds under her previous peak figure while Said Com and Laser Hawk ran to vastly improved ratings of 118 and 117 respectively.

Interestingly fourth placegetter Ambidexter ran to his master value while Manawanui continues his current flat line ratings profile around nine pounds under his peak Spring rating.

In respect of Manawanui, maybe the arduous Spring campaign that saw him "spent" when narrowly downed by Helmet after a titanic struggle all the way up the Caulfield straight is having an impact on him regaining his best form?

Certainly there are signs emerging this campaign with both Helmet and Manawanui this could be the case. Both are currently well below form.

I will be surprised if the form from the Randwick Guineas does not hold up and again prove to be a strong reference over the coming weeks.

As for Mosheen, she is currently the second highest Timeform rated three-year-old filly over 1600m to 2000m, behind Atlantic Jewel (128+). Quality Sydney filly Streama has a Timeform rating of 122 at 1600m, but is yet to be tried over a middle or staying distance.

Mosheen's immediate target will be the G1 Vinery Stakes over 2000m at Rosehill in two weeks time where she races against her own age and sex. The opposition will be easier than she raced against in either of her last two outings and she looks certain to start very much in the red.

Under those circumstances, it is hard to see her improving her master rating past 124 in that assignment, but the AJC Oaks (her next probable race) could be a different story as she will meet improving New Zealand Oaks winner Silent Achiever.

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The Randwick Guineas is the feature event on Saturday, and Timeform's Australian team highlight their three best bets from 'Down Under'......

An impressive line up of three-year-olds is set to do battle in Saturday's Group 1 Randwick Guineas (off 05:20 GMT), the first group one for their age group during the Sydney Autumn Carnival writes Timeform Australia's Gary Crispe....

Sydney-based jockey Glyn Schofield could have up to five rides for South African trainer Herman Brown on Dubai World Cup night at Meydan on March 31 writes Timeform's man 'Down Under' Gary Crispe....

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2000 Guineas Betting: Top Offer attracts market support

News / Timeform / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Newmarket is the venue for the 2000 Guineas on May 5

"Top Offer is currently rated 96P with Timeform..."

This weekend saw Roger Charlton's unbeaten three-year-old Top Offer attract market support for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 5...

Top Offer is now available to back at [9.0] for the first classic of the British Flat Season, having traded as high as [14.0] earlier in the week.

The once-raced son of Dansili was an impressive winner of a Newbury Maiden last August and, with the form of that contest having worked out relatively well since, it is easy to see why he has proved an attractive betting proposition recently.

Top Offer is currently rated 96P with Timeform on the back of that one performance and features in the Timeform Horses to Follow annual, pinpointed as a potential 2000 Guineas horse by Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch.

Last season's Racing Post Trophy winner Camelot , rated 117P by Timeform, remains at the head of the market for both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby, available to back at [3.9] for both contests at the moment.
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Timeform Horses to Follow 2012 is out now! Includes Fifty to follow on the Flat, top trainer interviews & much more! Click HERE for more information.

Trainer Noel Glynn is looking forward to the John Smith's Grand National with Becauseicouldntsee after his fine run in defeat in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup......

So You Think is set to be among the field for the Dubai World Cup at Meydan on Saturday March 31.......

Timeform look back on the weekend's action, the highlight of which was the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter.......

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2000 Guineas: Camelot dominates Newmarket entries

News / Timeform / 07 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Camelot winning at Doncaster.

"Camelot, rated 117P by Timeform, is one of 11 entries for Aidan O'Brien as he chases a sixth win in the race..."

Aidan O'Brien's Camelot is the star name among 63 entries for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 5...

Already a Group One winner thanks to his stunning victory in the RP Trophy at Doncaster, the unbeaten colt currently heads the market for both the Guineas and the Derby.

Camelot, rated 117P by Timeform, is one of 11 entries for the Ballydoyle handler as he chases a sixth win in the race.

Born To Sea, trained by John Oxx, and Jim Bolger's Dewhurst winner Parish Hall add to the Irish challenge, while Harbour Watch is among eight possibles for Richard Hannon.

French trainer Mikel Delzangles, successful with Makfi two years ago, has two contenders in Dragon Pulse, formerly with Jessica Harrington in Ireland, and Hermival.

"The 2000 Guineas is a race we are considering for both horses," said Delzangles.

"They will both run once before that in the trials - one will run in the Prix Djebel (Maisons-Laffitte, April 5) and the other in the Prix de Fontainebleau (Longchamp, April 15). We will see what happens there and then decide after that.

"Dragon Pulse has been with me for three weeks. I was impressed with his Irish form, and he looks like he is a very decent horse. He has not done any work for me yet, but physically he has all the looks and size to make a champion.

"Hermival won quite impressively at Saint-Cloud and I like him. He is not a show horse, but he is a very hard worker and if he improves he could be a very good horse.

"Although he won on heavy ground, I think he will be fine on better ground."

Another French possible is Nicolas Clement's French Fifteen, who has been bought by Sheikh Al Thani after winning the Criterium International Saint Cloud.

Clement said: "The plan now is to run him in the Prix Djebel (before Newmarket) and he is a colt who needs a true early pace to show his best.

"He has a good turn of foot and could be ridden by Olivier Peslier if he isn't claimed by the Wertheimer brothers as he now has a second retainer with Sheikh Al Thani."

Matusalen is the Spanish-trained entry for Mauricio Delcher Sanchez, who has already enjoyed significant success in Britain having saddled Equiano to success in the 2008 King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The 2000 Guineas market is, at present, dominated by Camelot, who currently trades at [3.8]. Born To Sea can be backed at [13.5] with Power not far behind that one at [14.0].

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Mendip is likely to bid to give Godolphin an 11th success in Round 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meydan on Super Saturday on March 10....

Bart Cummings will rely on German import Illo and second string Precedence as he attempts to win his 14th Australian Cup at Flemington on Saturday......

Trainer Paul Nolan has stated that he is pleased with leading Irish fancy Noble Prince's preparation for the Ryanair with the horse having had a breathing operation since his last start......

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2000 Guineas: Caspar Netscher to have stamina tested in Greenham

News / Timeform / 12 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Charles Wentworth's Caspar Netscher

""I have a gut feeling he's a sprinter. His pedigree suggests he should get further, so that's the way we are going to go with him."

Alan McCabe expects the result of Caspar Netscher's three-year-old debut in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury to shape the rest of his 2012 campaign.

Although the Newark trainer feels his Timeform 115-rated dual Group 2 hero is likely to be suited by sprint distances, he wants to give the Dutch Art colt a try in a Classic trial.

McCabe sees the Group 3 seven-furlong contest in April on a track where he won the Mill Reef Stakes last season as the ideal race to find out.

"He's in good order. We're preparing him for the Greenham and it's fingers crossed. It's a long road, but hopefully we get there," McCabe told At The Races.

"He came back from America after the Breeders' Cup and has had a nice break.

"He was the third best two-year-old in the country last year, so we've a nice horse to go to war with this year.

"I have a gut feeling he's a sprinter. His pedigree suggests he should get further, so that's the way we are going to go with him.

"We can assess after that whether it's speed or that he stays."

Caspar Netscher is yet to enter the Betfair market for the 2000 Guineas, race in which Camelot currently heads the market at [7.0].

Colm Murphy faces a race against time to get Quito De La Roque ready for Cheltenham after the Grade 1 winner scoped badly last week....

Mouse Morris is delighted with how First Lieutenant's preparation is going as he prepares to bid for his second Cheltenham Festival triumph next month......

The highest Timeform-rated sprinter in the world, the unbeaten Black Caviar, posted a record equalling victory at Caulfield on Saturday, claiming her eighteenth consecutive success on a major Australian racetrack, and now looks set to raise her rating beyond 135......

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Dubai Daily: UAE 2000 Guineas, Thursday, Meydan 15:45

Dubai / Timeform / 08 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mickael Barzalona rides Godolphin's Kinglet

"Kinglet won a couple of times last year and really caught the eye on reappearance when staying on strongly into second behind Dark Matter..."

The first three home in the trial - Dark Matter, Kinglet and Rassam - meet again in the main event, the Group 3 UAE 2000 Guineas. Timeform assess the field...

Dark Matter was a 4-time winner in Singapore last year, and has won both his outings at Meydan this season, including a handicap off a mark of 110 last time. Should stay this far and can go well again.

Sand Stamp made a promising debut and didn't need to build on that when winning his maiden next time. Not disgraced behind Factory Time last week but this is tougher and likely to come up short.

Burano was steadily progressive at 2 yrs without getting his head in front, best effort on final start when second to Anjaz at Doncaster. Too much to do over inadequate trip last week but this tougher.

Noor Zabeel won a maiden at York last year for Mick Channon before running with credit in minor and listed company. Has already shown he stays this far but faces a stiff enough task on first start for new yard.

Kinglet won a couple of times last year and really caught the eye on reappearance when staying on strongly into second behind Dark Matter. Realistic claims of reversing form over this longer trip.

Mickdaam was trained by Richard Fahey at 2 yrs, winning maiden at York on final outing. Built on that when sixth behind Dark Matter on debut for this yard but more needed if he is to win this.

Mehdi was the winner of a valuable sales race at Newmarket last year and placed in similar event subsequently. Not disgraced behind Dark Matter on reappearance but will do well to reverse form.

Surfer was placed on all bar one of his starts last year, leaving Mahmood Al Zarooni prior to final outing. Again gave his running when fifth to Dark Matter last time and entitled to be involved.

Rassam was hugely impressive on debut when winning at Kempton and built on that despite only finishing third behind Dark Matter last time. Arguably too keen that day and Dettori opts to ride him again.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Kinglet
2. Rassam
3. Dark Matter

Timeform Verdict: Dark Matter is the pick on form based on his win in a handicap off a mark of 110 last time but he didn't have much to spare when beating several of these prior to that and he is passed over in favour of Kinglet who forfeited plenty of ground that day and did very well to finish so close. Rassam could also reverse form having been too keen on what was just his second start.

Visit timeform.com to download a race card for Thursday's meeting at Meydan.

Timeform's Dubai handicapper, Stephen Molyneux, is back with three more SmartPlays for Thursday's meeting at Meydan......

Top Australian jockey Kerrin McEvoy will team-up with Godolphin once more when he rides both Sepoy and Helmet on Dubai World Cup night......

The 2012 Dubai World Cup has amassed an entry that numbers 271, featuring a whole host of top performers from around the globe....

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Timeform Daily: 1000 Guineas, Sunday, Curragh 16:15

Race of the Day / Timeform / 21 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Which filly will win the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh?

"Together comes here with an excellent second in the British equivalent under her belt and just gets the vote with Ryan Moore in the saddle."

After his Roderic O'Connor won the Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday, can Aidan O'Brien double up in the fillies version on Sunday?

Ballybacka Lady hasn't always looked the most straightforward but showed no signs of waywardness when winning Group 3 at Leopardstown last time under an enterprising ride. Needs to progress again to feature, however.

Banimpire is a prominently-ridden sort with a good attitude who has already won a listed race and 2 Group 3's around 1¼m this year. That's some of the best form on offer but the drop back to 1m leaves her vulnerable.

Chrysanthemum was a costly purchase with a useful pedigree and won 2 from 2 as a juvenile, namely a listed race over 1m and a Group 3 race at 7f, both at the Curragh. She needs to progress again but that's a possibility.

Claiomh Solais is a well-bred filly who got off the mark at fourth attempt in a 1m maiden at Naas earlier this month. That form is way off the required standard here, though, and Kevin Manning prefers Banimpire.

Emiyna looks an exciting prospect, winning a 7f maiden at Dundalk in April and doubling tally in Group 3 at 7f here, beating a consistent older filly with
more in hand than the bare margin. Leading player.

Handassa was most impressive when making a winning debut in maiden here last year. Didn't build on that at first attempt when behind Ballybacka Lady and Sapphire Pendant on return, and already blinkered.

History Note is from good family and has made a most favourable impression so far, winning 7f maiden here last backend and a good third in Group 3 at Leopardstown on return, meeting trouble. Will improve further.

Laughing Lashes finished ahead of Misty For Me when off the mark at third attempt in Group 2 at the Curragh, but found that rival progressing past her on final 2-y-o start. Lacklustre return at Newmarket, too.

Look At Me created a big impression at 2 yrs, winning a Fairyhouse maiden before improving markedly when second in Group 3 at Newmarket. Easy to back and ran poorly behind Emiyna on reappearance, however.

Majestic Dubawi progressed in leaps and bounds at 2 yrs, winning maiden at Bath and Group 3 at Ayr, showing good speed both times. Last in listed handicap on reappearance and stamina for 1m not assured.

Misty For Me enjoyed a most productive 2-y-o campaign, winning Group 1 events at the Curragh and Longchamp. Lacks scope physically, however, and dropped away tamely in 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on reappearance.

Rose Bonheur is beginning to deliver on early promise, winning maiden at Tipperary in April and handicap at Naas in May (easily). Will be at least as effective at this longer trip and could go well at a price.

Seeharn won her first 2 starts at the Curragh, namely maiden and listed race, both over 6f. Limitations exposed since (behind Emiyna last time) and she's no banker to stay 1m, on breeding or running style.

Together was a 7f Group 3 winner in busy 2-y-o campaign who ran a cracker when second to Blue Bunting in 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, just collared late on. Not always looked straightforward but sets the standard.

Wild Wind has only 1 win to her name but has done well to be placed all 3 starts this season, notably when third in French 1000 Guineas at Longchamp. Could easily get placed again, but looks an unlikely winner.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Together
2. Emiyna
3. History Note

Timeform's View: Emiyna looks an exciting prospect and will be suited by this step up to 1m so deserves to be high on the shortlist, but Together comes here with an excellent second in the British equivalent under her belt and just gets the vote with Ryan Moore in the saddle. History Note rates as a sure-fire improver and is a good second string for the Oxx yard.

This handicap over a mile for three-year-olds traditionally proves a very good race......

Timeform run the rule over this fillies' handicap......

Timeform go through the runners for this tricky big-field handicap......

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