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Premier League Stats: Late season improvers offer value

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Bardsley and the Black Cats are on the upgrade

"Knowing which teams have upped their game, while others have stagnated or gone backwards, might be useful for punters this week, when a handful of in-form teams stand out as good bets."

The second-half of the season has seen some teams stall while others have turned the form around. Andrew Atherley outlines the improving Premier League performers and those on the decline

Half of the 20 Premier League teams have improved in the second half of the season and it's a fair bet that some of the names on the list would cause a few eyebrows to be raised.

Knowing which teams have upped their game, while others have stagnated or gone backwards, might be useful for punters this week, when a handful of in-form teams stand out as good bets.

We can all see that Manchester United are the improving team at the top of the table - their points average was 2.37 per game in the first 19 matches but has gone up to 2.5 in the second half of the season. Every other big-six team has gone backwards since the halfway point, some only marginally but Tottenham and Liverpool most dramatically.

Swansea are another obviously progressive side. Brendan Rodgers' increasingly impressive team are second to United among the improvers and third overall (behind United and Manchester City) if the league table was based only on results in the second half of the season. Swansea's record since the halfway point is six wins, one draw and three defeats.

One of the surprise names on the list of improvers might be Newcastle, who started fast and to many eyes appear to be consolidating at best. In fact, they are still moving forward - their points average in the second half of the season is 1.7 per game, a rise from 1.58 up to the halfway point.

Norwich, too, are still on the up, which might surprise some people after their status as best promoted side was taken over by Swansea. And it might also be a surprise that Bolton have improved just as much as Everton in the second half of the season, more than doubling their previous points average.

Blackburn, too, are notable improvers at the bottom end with a healthy average of 1.4 points per game since the halfway point, but the other strugglers - QPR, Wigan and Wolves - have all gone backwards.

So, how does that help us with this week's matches? Well, there are three fixtures that pit one of the improvers against a team in decline and backing the in-form teams looks the way to go.

The three improvers are Everton (at home to Arsenal on Wednesday night), Norwich (at home to Wolves on Saturday) and Sunderland (at home to QPR on Saturday).

With respect to Arsenal's steadying form, Everton might be best off -0 on the Asian handicap at [2.44]. Wolves and QPR have the worst two points averages since the halfway point of the season and home wins for Norwich at [1.84] and Sunderland at [1.94] look good.

Manchester City do not fit in the 'improvers' category, but nor are they imploding as some appear to believe.

Their points average in the first half of the season was 2.37 and since then it has been 2.33, still making them clear second-best in the Premier League behind leaders United.
City's home form is keeping them going and their fabulous record at the Etihad gives them strong betting appeal against Chelsea on Wednesday night.

In the past 12 months City's home record is 23 wins, one draw and just two defeats - and it's a perfect 18 in the Premier League. Despite Chelsea's resurgence, the stats say back City for another home win at [1.95].

Pick of the stats
Bolton v Blackburn
Both teams rank in the top four for games with over 2.5 goals - Bolton are second with 71 per cent and Blackburn fourth with 66 per cent

Swansea v Everton
Swansea rank seventh on home form and Everton's away record against the top 10 in that category is one win, one draw and six defeats

Recommended Bets
Manchester City to beat Chelsea at [1.95]
Everton off -0 on the Asian handicap v Arsenal at [2.44]
Norwich to beat Wolves at [1.84]
Sunderland to beat QPR at [1.94]

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2000 Guineas Betting: Top Offer attracts market support

News / Timeform / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Newmarket is the venue for the 2000 Guineas on May 5

"Top Offer is currently rated 96P with Timeform..."

This weekend saw Roger Charlton's unbeaten three-year-old Top Offer attract market support for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 5...

Top Offer is now available to back at [9.0] for the first classic of the British Flat Season, having traded as high as [14.0] earlier in the week.

The once-raced son of Dansili was an impressive winner of a Newbury Maiden last August and, with the form of that contest having worked out relatively well since, it is easy to see why he has proved an attractive betting proposition recently.

Top Offer is currently rated 96P with Timeform on the back of that one performance and features in the Timeform Horses to Follow annual, pinpointed as a potential 2000 Guineas horse by Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch.

Last season's Racing Post Trophy winner Camelot , rated 117P by Timeform, remains at the head of the market for both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby, available to back at [3.9] for both contests at the moment.
.........
Timeform Horses to Follow 2012 is out now! Includes Fifty to follow on the Flat, top trainer interviews & much more! Click HERE for more information.

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Timeform look back on the weekend's action, the highlight of which was the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter.......

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Bundesliga Betting: Do Bayern Munich offer any value at their current price?

German Football / Matthew Walton / 25 January 2012 / 1 Comments

Robert Lewandowki's goals can keep Dortmund in the title race

"If you want to back Bayern at a short price, fine, but you might have a job convincing this sceptic that the former champions are good value to regain their crown."

Bayern Munich are involved in a four-way tussle for the Bundesliga title but are still the overwhelming favourites at 1.66. What does recent history tell us about that price, asks Matthew Walton.

For backers of Bayern Munich at prices as low as [1.14]... these are worrying times.

In the midst of 'Oscar season' all isn't going quite so well for FC Hollywood.

And for Jupp Heynckes's star-studded team, who have previously swept the board with 22 domestic championships, the route to No.23 is proving no stroll up the red carpet.

Bayern's return to the Bundesliga after Germany's mid-season break was welcomed with a 3-1 loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach and that result, along with some worrying pre-Christmas form has made the title race exactly that... a race!

Bayern P18 (W12 D1 L5) are now joint leaders of three on 37 points along with Borussia Dortmund (W11 D4 L3) and Schalke 04 (W12 D1 L5). The resurgent Mönchengladbach (W11 D3 L4) are just a point back with the next team, Werder Bremen, a further six points adrift.

But, many will say, Bayern always come on strong in the second half of the season. They have the money, the players, the experience... more than enough to get the job done.

Well, to a point.

There are five good reasons to question the claims of Die Bayern at their current market price of [1.66].

(i) Germany's most trophied club have only won the Bundesliga title twice in the last five years (2009/10 and 2007/08).

Last season Borussia Dortmund won the league. Jurgen Klopp's side finishing 7 points clear of second-placed Bayer Leverkusen with Bayern, a full 10 points back, just making the tri-cast.

In 2008/09 it was Wolfsburg who beat the Bavarians to the title and back in 2006/07 VFB Stuttgart claimed the title with Bayern, again a full 10 points behind the eventual champions, only coming fourth and ending up in the UEFA Cup/Europa League!

(ii) Bayern's current form isn't the best... W5 D0 L3 of their last eight matches has seen their early season lead disappear, allowing others (like Dortmund W6 D1 L1) to make up ground. Munich need to find their form... and fast!

(iii) 18 games played so far in the Bundesliga. Bayern have played nine at home and nine away, whilst Dortmund have played 10 away but just eight games at home. Slight advantage there to the main challengers. Bayern must also travel to the Westfalenstadion later in the campaign (having already lost at home to Dortmund earlier in the season).

(iv) Champions League activity could also be a distraction as the title race hots up in March/April. Bayern would expect to get past Basle in the R16... which will mean at least four more matches to squeeze into their end of season schedule (even if they go out in the QFs).

(v) and let's not forget, aside of all the above points (added to fatigue, injuries, suspensions etc) that Bayern have still only won the Bundesliga in five of the last 10 years. Odds-on quotes before the season starts (let alone midway) still represent questionable value.

Should we be happy, therefore, to lump on the favourites at a pretty short price?

Dortmund have seven previous national titles to their name, most recently winning the Bundesliga in 2010/11.

They're a very big threat indeed. More so as they possess a very in-form goalscorer...young Polish striker, Robert Lewandowski. With 14 goals in 18 matches he's a highly-rated performer, even by Bayern.

Schalke 04 certainly aren't serial winners (last victorious way back in 1958) but Huub Stevens has a side who have been runners-up three times in the last six seasons. They're not easily discounted as a result.

It's only Borussia Mönchengladbach who lack any recent pedigree (their 1976/77 league win was their last of three consecutive titles in the mid-70's).

But they, along with the other two, make for a chasing pack that has both strength and depth.

If you want to back Bayern at a short price, fine, but you might have a job convincing this sceptic that the former champions are good value to regain their crown. And that's the matter which is in hand... are they value?

The logical play, given the points raised, is to take a 'value' position on their nearest (and biggest) threat, Dortmund, even considering a back-to-lay strategy.

Key Statistic

Bayern only have the sixth best record in the Bundesliga against their nearest rivals (i.e. sides in the top half of the table). Dortmund, Shalke and Mönchengladbach all have better results against the better teams.

Recommended Bets

Back Borussia Dortmund to win the Bundesliga at [3.45]

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Simon Rowlands: Riches galore on offer on Super Saturday

Tipping / Simon Rowlands / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Uncle Mo will look to get back to winning ways at Belmont on Saturday

"Uncle Mo (125) goes in the Kelso Handicap on the Belmont Saturday undercard."

Timeform's head of US development Simon Rowlands looks at the action on Super Saturday and gives you his recommendations for the $500k Guaranteed All-Graded Stakes Pick 4 at Belmont...

European racing fans will be in clover at the weekend, when Longchamp's Arc Day card features seven Group 1s, but their cousins on the other side of the Atlantic are hardly losing out by comparison.

'Super Saturday' involves five Grade 1s at Belmont and four Grade 1s at Santa Anita, with another Grade 1 at the latter course on Sunday for good measure.

Picking a highlight is all but impossible, but try: Cape Blanco (Timeform rating of 124) in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont; Stacelita (121) in the Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont; top sprinter Trappe Shot (128) in the Vosburgh Invitational at Belmont; or top fillies/mares Blind Luck (122), Ask The Moon (119) and Zazu (119) in the Lady's Secret at Santa Anita.

If you fancy slumming it in a "mere" Grade 2, Uncle Mo (125) goes in the Kelso Handicap on the Belmont Saturday undercard.

There are plenty of good horses and great racing in the offing, then, as well as likely pointers for the Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs on November 4 and 5.

If you want to follow the action from Belmont on Saturday you can do so on Timeform Radio. And if you want to get involved there is the option of having a crack at the $500,000 Guaranteed All-Graded Stakes Pick 4 at the track, bets for which can be placed through the Tote option on Betfair.

The Pick 4 starts with race seven, the six-furlong Vosburgh, due off at 20:57 British Summer Time, a race weakened by the late defection of Big Drama (please note that this blog and the Pick4 selections have been updated to take into account Big Drama's withdrawal).

Trappe Shot has come to sprinting late, having previously raced at beyond a mile, and there is still a suspicion that an extra furlong would not go amiss. In the circumstances it seems worth considering also putting in the three-year-old outsider Justin Phillip (rated 119), whose less aggressive run style could just pay off.

Next is the Kelso Handicap over a mile (21:33 BST). With only five declared runners, the temptation is to go "all in" on a resurgent Uncle Mo. His nose defeat by the classy Caleb's Posse at Saratoga last time came after a near-five-month absence and is better form than his rivals here can boast. The best of those rivals is Jackson Bend (rated 123), winner of the Grade 1 Forego Stakes last time.

The Beldame Invitational (22:06 BST) is dominated by crack older filly Havre de Grace (rated 124), who should win comfortably at her best but will be very short. The three-year-old Royal Delta (rated 120) is her main rival but it could be worth throwing in Life At Ten (rated 115), freshened after a 10-week break, instead.

The 10-furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup (22:46 BST) lies between Flat Out and Stay Thirsty on form. They are both rated 122 by Timeform, but weight-for-age tips the balance in the favour of the older Flat Out.

Stay Thirsty's win in the Travers Stakes last time seems to have been over-rated by the public, who briefly made the colt favourite for the Breeders' Cup Classic after it. I intend constructing two bets, one with him in and one with him out. Rodman (rated 116) looks the best outsider stepping up in trip.

Recommended bets:
Leg 1: 7/8
Leg 2: 3
Leg 3: 1/5
Leg 4: 1/3/4

2 x 1 x 2 x 3 = 12 bets

Plus as above with 4 omitted from leg 4 = 8 bets

Total 20 bets at $2 each

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