Follow The Money: Empire being backed in today's Saturday Sandown special

Recommended Bets

Lay Fintry in the 15:15 Sandown @ 2.962/1

Back Assault On Rome in the 16:25 Sandown @ 6.05/1

Back Zain Empire in the 17:00 Sandown @ 3.412/5

The markets have been reviewed and all three of today's Follow The Money selections come from the meeting at Sandown...

It takes a brave person to ignore the words of the great Andre Fabre and he has warned that his filly Fintry may not be at her best in today's 15:15 Sandown. Her price has eased out from 2.56/4 to her current price of 2.962/1 with large volumes of money traded on her. She has been off the track for 90 days and has a seven pound Group two penalty to shoulder as well. She has been brought here for better ground but this is very much a prep race for the Sun Chariot. She rates a good value lay with several credible rivals in opposition.

Moving on to the 16:25 Sandown, Assault On Rome has been backed to take advantage of a drop in class. The early 8.615/2 is long gone and she's currently trading at 6.05/1. She has been highly tried for the excellent Mark Johnston stable, running respectably in a listed race at Cologne in July and following that with an excellent third place behind Cabs in a Class three Nursery at Newmarket. Off the same mark and in this easier grade, this consistent sort can get her head back in front today. She should be able to get a prominent early position from her good draw and as with most representatives from this stable, keep finding at the business end.

Zain Empire has been the subject of relentless support in the 17:00 Sandown. Small money has been traded on him at as big as 7.613/2 and larger sums at all rates down to his current 3.412/5 accounting for over half of the money traded on the market. He's a lightly raced and progressive colt. After making a successful debut at Carlisle he ran an excellent third behind Provenance at Sandown over seven furlongs, form which has been boosted by the winner since. He posted another good effort on his latest start where he just missed out. After just three starts he is still open to improvement and the strength of support reflects his trainer's view that the colt is steadily improving and can only get better, will like the ground and should go well.

Recommended Bets

Lay Fintry in the 15:15 Sandown @ 2.962/1
Back Assault On Rome in the 16:25 Sandown @ 6.05/1
Back Zain Empire in the 17:00 Sandown @ 3.412/5

Staked: 632pts
Returned: 664.65pts
P/L: + 52.72pts (before commission)

Updated to end of July. Based on prices at time of publication.

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Sidemarket Special: City to bounce back with rout of Norwich

Man City Total Goals - Back 4 or more @ 3.814/5

In his weekly column Jaymes Monte picks out the best bets from the side markets of this weekend's Premier League matches...

Liverpool v Arsenal - Arsenal to win to nil - Back Yes @ 8.07/1
This bet stems largely from my belief that Arsenal are completely overpriced in the Match Odds market at 3.613/5. Therefore the knock-on effect is that the Gunners are over priced in many of the sidemarkets.

Perhaps there is a case for Liverpool to be made slight favourites given that they are on home turf, but we shouldn't forget that Arsenal are the league leaders and are in a rich vein of form themselves - eight wins and two draws from their last 10. In my opinion there should be much greater parity in the betting.

Liverpool have yet to earn a single point this season from games against their fellow top-four inhabitants, with Arsenal comfortable 2-0 winners in the meeting at the Emirates.

No Premier League goalkeeper has kept more clean sheets (11) than Wojciech Szczesny this season and that 8.07/1 about the Gunners winning here without conceding looks solid value.

C Palace v West Brom - C Palace Clean Sheet? - Back Yes @ 3.02/1
The difference that Tony Pulis has made since being introduced as manager of Crystal Palace cannot be understated. Seemingly down and out at the bottom of the Premier League table, the Eagles now look as though they may survive with a bit in hand. And that's largely down to a new defensive rigidity.

Every one of Palace's six wins under the former Stoke boss have come without conceding a goal. Including a 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture at the Hawthorns.

Furthermore, the Baggies look bereft of attacking quality and extremely short on confidence at present. Julian Speroni has kept five clean sheets in his last seven league games at Selhurst Park and odds of 3.02/1 on that tally improving is a bet worth siding with.

Norwich v Man City - Man City Total Goals - Back four or more @ 3.814/5
I fear for Norwich this weekend, I really do. Not just because Manchester City have scored 24 goals in their last five games against the Canaries, but because that could be compounded even further by the Citizens looking for a reaction to Monday night's loss to Chelsea.

Manuel Pellegrini and his players will know that they need to reassert themselves by showing that Monday's performance was a one-off, that they are still the team that everyone should fear and that they deserve to be the title favourites. And the best, and quickest way of doing that would be with an emphatic win over Chris Hughton's struggling Norwich side this weekend.

If you'd backed City to score four or more goals in each of their last five games against Norwich then you'd have been paid out at handsome odds on four occasions. Take the attractive 3.814/5 on that becoming five out of six this weekend.

Wagered: 73 pts
Returned: 55.6 pts
P/L - 17.4 pts (after commission)

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Against All Odds: A Rafa European special on the way in Switzerland

"It’s hard to see The Blues going wild tonight, especially as Rafa will likely adopt a quite cautious approach."

Lay Over 2.5 goals in Basel v Chelsea @ 1.9720/21 

Chelsea travel to Switzerland to take on Basel in a Europa League semi-final live on ITV1 at 20:05 and Paul Robinson thinks we could be in for a low scoring game.

Basel are classed as the outsiders of the remaining four to lift the trophy but they have been excellent in the competition thus far and it would be dangerous to write them off. After coming through a group that contained both Sporting Lisbon and Genk, Murat Yakin's men have knocked out three sides who were all talked about as possible winners. They beat Dnipro 3-1 on aggregate, Zenit 2-1 and saw off Tottenham on penalties after a pair of 2-2 draws.

Marco Streller leads the way with four Europa League goals for the Swiss outfit, but it's Mohamed Salah who has impressed the most with his performances - notably the one he put in at White Hart Lane. That tie might have finished 4-4 on aggregate but I expect this one to be much more like their other matches in this tournament. Seven of their previous 10 this term had gone under 2.5 goals, including all their games in the knockout phase. 

Chelsea edged out Rubin Kazan in the quarter-finals, beating them 5-4 on aggregate over two legs. Prior to that they'd knocked out Sparta Prague and Steaua Bucharest, but again, the margins of victory were hardly convincing. Rafa Benitez is the master of finding a way to win in Europe though and he will love nothing more than to add another major trophy to his CV before departing the club in May.

Fernando Torres will lead the line in the absence of Demba Ba and while his goal record isn't actually as bad as some people make out - he's outscored the likes of Rooney and Tevez this season - it's hard to see The Blues going wild tonight, especially as Rafa will likely adopt a quite cautious approach.

Over 2.5 goals is trading at a shade of odds-on at 1.9720/21 and that seems too short to me as I'm expecting a somewhat tentative affair, especially in the early stages. That's why, at the prices, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Basel v Chelsea @ 1.9720/21 

Wagered: 114 pts
Returned: 100.38 pts
P/L – 13.62 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Follow The Money: Doncaster special!

"With all three of Red Tyke's flat wins coming on going ranging form good-to-soft to heavy, there looks every chance he'll be right in the finish today."

Back Red Tyke @ 4.1n/a 15:00 Doncaster

The 2013 flat season begins today at Doncaster and that is where you'll find all three of Friday's Follow The Money selections...

We start in the 13:25 where Vodka Time has seen solid support, coming in from 13.3n/a to 5.79/2. He's a half-brother to four-time winner Barista, who importantly had a victory at as a two-year-old. Given Vodka Time's trainer David Evans has been known to ready a newcomer, the market support is significant. With jockey Adam Kirby boasting a 28% win rate for the stable this year, you can see why Betfair customers are backing Vodka Time to get his flat season started with a victory

Moving onto the 15:00, Red Tyke has seen some support, coming in to 4.1n/a from 5.21n/a. John Quinn's runner has been mixing it up over the jumps and flat for his last six runs, being successful over both. He comes into this race after a solid fourth over hurdles a fortnight ago, so should be race-fit. With all three flat wins coming on going ranging form good-to-soft to heavy, there looks every chance he'll be right in the finish today.

We find today's drifter in the 16:45 in the form of Munhamer who is friendless in the market, going from 3.02/1 out to 3.9n/a. John Gosden's runner was a 160,000 guineas purchase as a yearling, and the yard has sent out two wide-margin winners of this race the past few years. Given these factors, the lack of support in the market is a big worry, so he might be one to avoid until we can see what potential he has after today's run.

Recommended Bets
Back Vodka Time @ 5.79/2 13:25 Doncaster
Back Red Tyke @ 4.1n/a 15:00 Doncaster
Lay Munhamer @ 3.9n/a 16:45 Doncaster

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Cheltenham Festival 2013: Handicappers' Corner Special

"Sprinter Sacre’s imperious display in the Queen Mother Champion Chase earned him a rating of c192p, which is the highest since our Chasers & Hurdlers series began in 1975/6..."

Politics certainly isn't the only field in which "a week is a long time", explains jumps handicapper Phil Turner.

Indeed, I can report that it has been quite an eventful seven days for Welsh-born Evertonians who put ratings on horses for a living. It began with Everton being unceremoniously dumped out of the FA Cup by unfancied Wigan, whilst the day job got off to a similarly unpromising start when My Tent Or Yours (14lb clear on Timeform ratings) suffered defeat in the Cheltenham Festival opener on Tuesday. Fortunately, things rallied splendidly thereafter, and the week ended with Bobs Worth leading home a one-two-three for Timeform ratings in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Everton beating Premier League champions Manchester City. Oh, and in case anyone missed Saturday evening's rugby result, Wales thumped England to claim the Six Nations' title again. Smug doesn't even come close to covering it...

Although Wales ruled the roost in the rugby, it was Ireland - and particularly Willie Mullins - who stole the honours at the Cheltenham Festival, claiming a record haul of 14 wins. Mullins supplied five of those successes, with pride of place going to Hurricane Fly (Timeform rating h173), who became the first horse since Comedy of Errors in 1975 to regain his Champion Hurdle crown when producing a gutsy display to beat 2012 winner Rock On Ruby (h168) and Countrywide Flame (h164) - though the performances of the latter pair did provoke thoughts of "what might have been" with Darlan (h170), who was set to beat that pair comprehensively at Doncaster last month when suffering a fatal fall. 

That's 15 Grade 1 wins now for Hurricane Fly, which is a remarkable achievement that arguably hasn't received the credit it deserves. Indeed, many of the pre-Cheltenham preview nights downplayed Hurricane Fly's record due to him "beating the same horses on Irish soil". The folly of this argument was further highlighted when Solwhit (h164) - defeated by Hurricane Fly on four out of their five meetings - showed himself to be better than ever when winning the World Hurdle. Hot favourite Oscar Whisky (h167) patently failed to give his running in the World Hurdle but, happily, that proved to be the exception to the rule during Festival week, with most of the leading players running to somewhere near their best and producing some reliable-looking results.

Take the Gold Cup, for example, which saw all of the leading players run to form, Bobs Worth (c179) emerging as an above-average winner of the race as he stayed on strongly in the rain-softened conditions to beat Sir des Champs (c173) by seven lengths, with 2011 hero Long Run (c172) finishing third for the second year running - the last-named gelding is now rated on the balance of his form over the past two seasons. Silviniaco Conti (c172+) could well have stirred things up had he not fallen three out when still going strongly and, along with the Gold Cup first two, underlined what a vintage crop of novice chasers we enjoyed in 2011/12.

Second-season chasers duly dominated the other open Grade 1 chases at the meeting, with Cue Card (c175) proving far too strong for First Lieutenant (c166) and For Non Stop (c163) in the Ryanair Chase, in which 2012 winner Riverside Theatre (c162) could manage only fourth this time around. The Ryanair provided long overdue recognition on the big stage for Cue Card and confirmed our view that he is one of the very best horses in training - he now shares the same rating as Cheltenham absentee, and fellow second-season chaser, Flemenstar (c175) and they sit below only Bobs Worth and Sprinter Sacre in the Timeform chase rankings.

Ah yes, Sprinter Sacre. As many readers may already be aware, Sprinter Sacre's imperious display in the Queen Mother Champion Chase earned him a rating of c192p, which is the highest since our Chasers & Hurdlers series began in 1975/6, whilst the Tom Dreaper-trained superstars of the 1960s, Arkle and Flyingbolt, are the only horses to have achieved a higher rating in Timeform's 65-year history. It could be argued that the Champion Chase should be rated even higher, as neither of the placed horses have been rated as running to their very best Timeform figure, though a late stumble (plus the effort of trying to match strides with Sprinter Sacre) almost certainly contributed to 2011 winner Sizing Europe (c173) tiring close home as he finished 19 lengths back in second, running some 6lb below his best.

Simonsig (c162P) remains the most plausible challenger to stable-companion Sprinter Sacre in 2013/14, even though his win in the Arkle Chase wasn't quite as impressive as most had imagined it would be. That said, the grey still ran to a very high level of form in defeating Irish raider Baily Green (c157), who had a better chance on form than the betting suggested. In addition, Simonsig rather compromised his chance by racing too freely and jumping less fluently than usual, so it reflects well on him that he still had enough in reserve to hold on in the latter stages - particularly as fellow pacesetters Overturn (c156) and Arvika Ligeonierre (c155) folded tamely out of contention.

With the exception of Simonsig, the novice chasers on show at last week's Festival didn't look anything out of the ordinary and seem unlikely to be emulating that vintage crop from last season come next March. By contrast, there was an abundance of potential top-class performers to be found amongst the novice hurdlers in action over the four-day meeting. 

Despite that chastening defeat in the Supreme Novices', My Tent Or Yours (h167) remains very much one to consider for the 2014 Champion Hurdle, the manner in which he tanked through the race (combined with some very fluent jumping) going a long way to confirm the striking impression he'd made when winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. His Achilles' heel at this stage remains his response to pressure against a very tough opponent - his Cheltenham second to Champagne Fever (h165) was a carbon copy to the latter stages of last season's Aintree bumper, when he lost out to The New One. 

It also needs stressing that the 2013 Supreme looks a vintage renewal, with Champagne Fever, My Tent Or Yours and third-placed Jezki (h162) pulling fully 15 lengths clear of the remainder off a sound pace.  In addition, it is worth remembering that Sprinter Sacre also failed to get up the hill so well as seemed likely after pulling very hard for Tony McCoy when only third in a similarly strong Supreme in 2011, so it is certainly too soon to be writing off My Tent Or Yours.

The aforementioned The New One (h155p) could be renewing rivalry with My Tent Or Yours in 2013/14 if connections opt to drop him in trip following his impressive win in the Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle. The New One certainly showed an impressive turn of foot to put that race to bed after a steady early gallop, whilst the likes of Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and Rock On Ruby all contested this 21-furlong novice championship 12 months prior to tasting Champion Hurdle glory for the first time.

Perhaps the brightest Champion Hurdle hope to emerge from last week's Festival, however, was Triumph Hurdle winner Our Conor (h160p), who posted the highest rating by a juvenile since Jair du Cochet (163 in 2000/01) and subsequent Champion Hurdle winner Hors La Loi III (162p in 1998/99). The Triumph form made plenty of sense amongst the main pack, so it is safe to assume that Our Conor is full value (at the very least!) for his 15-length winning margin and he should prove a formidable opponent to Hurricane Fly on Irish soil next winter.

In common with Our Conor, At Fishers Cross (h153p) can boast a 100% record in 2012/13 - including a defeat of The New One - and he justified favouritism in highly satisfactory fashion in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. It was a landmark Grade 1 victory for up-and-coming trainer Rebecca Curtis and ensured it wasn't the only Welsh victory over highly-touted English rivals last week...

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In-Running Week: Cheltenham Special!

Zarkandar is a horse who just grinds it out and keeps finding and because of this tends to trade bigger in the run in victory and defeat...

With less than two weeks to go until the racing feast that is The Cheltenham Festival I thought I would put forward some in-running nibbles to try on the day, starting this week with the main feature races on each of the first two days...

Tuesday

Arkle - The starting point for trading in this race has to be around Overturn and Simonsig, and whether Donald McCain's stable sweetheart (he obviously adores this horse) can get into his familiar rhythm at the front end. I am sure he will be up there, but whether he will have an easy time of it is very debateable with Nicky Henderson already suggesting that Simonsig could challenge the early pace (and he is comfortable with any tactics) as well as Avrika Ligeonniere and a couple of bigger price runners challenging. With this in mind I am going to try and lay Overturn in the run to try and obtain a bit of value, as well as the fact that I do not think he will win. If Oscars Well runs in this I will attempt to trade on him with the way he travels and the fact a strong pace should help him travel well into the race late.

Lay Overturn in the run at around 3.10 in the run, with a further offer up at 2.10.
Back Oscars Well pre-race at BSP for small and then lay out your stake at ½ the BSP with further offers around 4.00 and 2.50 to have the field winning.

Champion Hurdle - For me this race revolves around some strong travelling types and the gritty determination of Zarkandar. Hurricane Fly, Rock On Ruby, Binocular (or My Tent Or Yours if plans changed) all move with eye-catching ease and of the three the stats back up playing on Rock On Ruby, although I will also have a small play on Binocular because of the likely value. Meanwhile Zarkandar is a horse who just grinds it out and keeps finding and because of this tends to trade bigger in the run in victory and defeat. The play on Zarkandar is based on not fancying the horse, but if you do, just split your stakes, backing ½ pre-race at BSP, and the other ½ in the run at double BSP.

Lay Zarkandar pre-race and then put up a back offer in the run at 2.5 times the BSP to cover your liability.
Back Rock On Ruby pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at ¼ the BSP with a further offer to create a green book at just above evens.
Back Binocular pre-race at BSP for small and then lay out your stake at ½ the BSP with further offers around 2.50 and 1.50 to create a green book.
RSA Chase - Let us keep this simple. I don't fancy Dynaste so I am looking for some value to trade on and in Super Duty I have a likely front runner who will trade short in the run and Boston Bob who will be delivered late and will trade both high and low during the race.

Back Super Duty pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake only at ½ the matched price with further offers up around evens to create a green book but with Super Duty still winning plenty.
Back Boston Bob for small stakes pre-race at BSP, and then back it at both 2x and 4x BSP in the run for further small stakes. Then lay out your combined stakes, plus a little more at around 2.20 to create a green book.

Champion Chase - Probably the hardest of the four races to try and make a trade in. I think Sprinter Sacre is rock solid, being a horse that travels supremely well and jumps like a stag. Sometimes it is just best to say no.

No play. 

Remember with Cheltenham Festival trades to put them in slightly higher or lower than at other meetings due to the volume of money and the fact that you are trading on a market that is very educated and mature.

Something for the weekend

The Package - He is entered at the weekend in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster and it will be perceived as an attempt to bounce back from a poor run at Warwick earlier in the year but that was on heavy ground which he has never particularly likes. With the ground drying out it could be time to trade on a horse that travels well and normally gets in the shake-up. The Package has traded ½ his BSP in 18 of 24 of his runs and odds-on in 10 of those runs so has the stats and style for a back to lay trade. If he goes to Cheltenham then play on him there as well.

Home Run - If David Pipe sends Home Run to Newbury this weekend for the Greatwood Hurdle then I will be looking to get involved with a horse that tends to drift under pressure at the business end. He put together the five timer earlier in the season so it doesn't always stop him winning but with the weight he is carrying now I am happy that my end position is opposing the horse. I will be backing Home Run for small stakes and then look to lay out my stake at ½ the BSP in the run with further low offers to have the field winning.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Minella set for Special run

Timeform Radio Tip / David Cleary / 25 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will you follow David's advice at Wincanton?

"Minella Special has strong form and looks overpriced. He's run really well when second here on both starts for Paul Henderson and today's conditions might suit him even better."

David Cleary makes the most of slim Sunday afternoon pickings to come up with a pair of promising bets...

The Irish turf Flat season gets underway at the Curragh this afternoon and provides the day's best action, with just two workaday jumps cards offered in Britain.

Easily the most interesting of the afternoon's jumping is the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at Wincanton at 15:55. Themilanhorse is likely to start favourite and is open to progress, although this is a much stronger handicap than he won last time. Revani is obviously interesting for Nick Williams first time and Perpetually has claims too, but bottom weight Minella Special has strong form claims too and looks overpriced. He's run really well when second here on both starts for Paul Henderson and today's conditions might suit him even better.

At Hexham, Tipsy Indian could well be another winner for bang-in-form Sue Smith in the two-mile handicap at 16:40. His second at Sedgefield on his penultimate start has been boosted since and gives him the best form chance, while 12 wins from 34 runs in the last fortnight for the stable is an outstanding strike rate by any standards.

Recommended Bets
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105240272&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105240288&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013

Rory Delargy is the pundit on Timeform Radio this afternoon, and he joins Big Al Dudman to take you through a packed afternoon of action. Here are his best bets......

Terry Norman's back in the Timeform Radio pundit's chair and therefore makes the picks on a busy day of racing in the UK...

Timeform Radio pundit Graham Cunningham makes a trio of Thursday afternoon selections, all at the Cumbria course......

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In-running Week: Cheltenham Festival special

Results & Reviews / Neil Munro / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Pure class - Barry Geraghty celebrates riding Sprinter Sacre to victory

"Montbazon travels well and keeps finding. But he has a tendency to make a mistake at the last."

An impatient Neil Munro considers some of the stars of day one at the Cheltenham Fesitval and explains how we should bet on them in future...

Maybe I should wait before analysing the Cheltenham form but, on day one, there were some horses that confirmed thoughts that I had going into the Festival.

Montbazon

Alan King was very upbeat before the Supreme Novice Hurdle, setting out that Montbazon had been working very well at home but admitting that he may not be good enough. So it proved with Montbazon finishing fourth behind Cinders And Ashes. However, he showed enough of the qualities that means I will be attempting to trade on him in the future. Montbazon is a battler who travels well and keeps finding. My main issue with him, and the reason that has brought about his last two defeats, is his propensity to make a mistake at the last. I believe this has cost him at Newbury, and in the Supreme. But because of his courageous qualities he is definitely worth a back to lay policy.

Back Montbazon pre-race at BSP and then lay out double your stake at one quarter the matched price. I would also put up a small speculative back bet at a big price.

Sprinter Sacre

Nicky Henderson's six-year-old was not as keen as before. He didn't trade high in the run - in fact, he didn't break evens - but he still took a while to settle. He is pure class but he remains on the list because his keeness could yet make him an interesting option for in-running bettors.

The Package

How good are the Pipes at getting a horse back to his best after a long layoff? Some mornings I feel I could benefit from time in the swimming pool that they use to get horses fit. The Package went to Cheltenham after being off the race track for over 450 days but ran superbly well to finish fourth in the 3m Handicap Chase on Day One of the Festival 2012. Historically, he's covered the ground in an eye-catching fashion from off the pace, and did so again before just fading. He always runs well at Cheltenham and in his last four defeats there he has traded [2.1], [2.1], [2.0] and [2.2]. He might go for the National but his two runs at Aintree, including one in the National, have both been poor.

Away from Aintree, back The Package pre-race at BSP and then lay out 150% of your stake at half the matched price.

The Champion Hurdle

This was a fantastic race and fascinating to try and dissect. Rock On Ruby travelled superbly well, as he has done previously and kept on finding up the hill, worth remembering for the future. Overturn is just as game as they come, and this was a career best performance. Hurricane Fly just didn't pick up and it will be interesting if an explanation comes to light. The race also featured two fascinating characters from an in-running point of view. Oscars Well again travelled well, didn't quite hit half his BSP in-running and again didn't take the last perfectly. To me he just needs to step up in trip but he does tend to trade low in the run. Just ahead of him, Zarkandar did his best work late on, to finish fifth. Look through all his runs and he does keep finding but, while campaigned over this kind of trip, I believe he will always trade bigger in the run.

Recommended
Rock On Ruby - Back to lay.
Overturn - Back to lay.
Oscars Well - Back to lay over 2m2f or further.
Zarkander - Lay to Back over 2m.

Sprinter Sacre has been given a Timeform master rating of 174p following his brilliant win in the Arkle Chase on the opening day of the 2012 Cheltenham Festival, making him the most highly rated novice chaser of the modern era......

Timeform look back on day one of the Cheltenham Festival, providing provisional ratings for the winners.......

Rock On Ruby ran out a most impressive winner of the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham under Noel Fehily......

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Find Me A 100 Winner: WGC-Bridgestone Invitational special!

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 02 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

The lesser heralded Rory of the golfing world is a big price this week

"Rory Sabbatini has twice finished second in this event, to Tiger in 2007 and Stewart Cink three years earlier. Given that obvious liking for course conditions and some decent 2011 figures, [150.0] strikes me as way too big."

Two course lovers with winning form in 2011 have caught the eye of Paul Krishnamurty in his weekly search for big priced wagers in the world of golf betting

With only one triple-figure priced winner in 11 renewals of this event on this course, Firestone Country Club may seem like the last place to be backing rank outsiders, but there is a legitimate reason to think this year might be different. In truth, it's been hard enough getting double-figure prices about the Firestone champion, as this is one of the events Tiger Woods completely dominated at his peak, winning seven times. Plenty of outsiders made the places during those years, even if it felt like they were effectively playing a different event.

Clearly, the old rules no longer apply, and Woods rates poor value even at a career high of [23.0] this week. Naturally Tiger's demise means shorter odds for everyone else, but given the strength of this elite field, there are still plenty of interesting contenders available in our price range. Take the following pair of 2011 winners.

Another event Tiger monopolised at his peak was the Bay Hill Invitational, and this year's champion might also appreciate the similar emphasis on quality long-iron play at Firestone. Martin Laird has slipped off the radar since landing that second career title, but catches the eye at [160.0] on the basis of an impressive first half of the season.

In recent years, August has been the month when Laird comes to life, whether it was his breakthrough Fedex Cup run in 2008 or last year's narrow second at the Barclays. The likeliest explanation for Martin's summer figures is that the heat and dry, fast greens particularly reward his long-iron accuracy. That is very much the nature of Firestone, where last year's debut 16th was promising.

Rory Sabbatini has twice finished second in this event, to Tiger in 2007 and Stewart Cink three years earlier. Given that obvious liking for course conditions and some decent 2011 figures, [150.0] strikes me as way too big.

There is a school of thought that the notoriously volatile Sabbatini is a reformed character this year, for which supporting evidence can be found in a win at the Honda Classic and third place at Quail Hollow. However, I would also draw positives from his last two mid-division finishes in the US and British Opens. Sabbatini has an appalling record in those majors, highly prone to giving up, so it was notable to see him battling hard when all was lost, especially in horrific weather at Sandwich.

The trading advice is to have two units on each player, then place the following two lay orders on both at [15.0] and [3.0]

Recommended Bets
2u Rory Sabbatini @ [150.0]
2u Martin Laird @ [160.0]

Place orders to lay both players 10u @ [15.0]
Place orders to lay both players 20u @ [3.0]

2011 Updated Stats: -17u

Paul Krishnamurty's column continues to bang at the door of a big win. Will this be the week for our man and his followers?...

After a thrilling weekend at Royal St Georges it might be time for a long odds winner at this week's Nordea Masters, says Paul Krishnamurty....

Five of the last 12 champions have gone off at [300.0] or bigger so consider one or more of this quintet for your Open bets...

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Overs and Unders: Scandinavian special

Against All Odds / Adam Preston / 17 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Adam Preston alights on Sweden and Denmark for Sunday's over and unders bets...

Midtjylland v Silkeborg - Danish Superliga, kick off 13:00 (UK)

For both teams this is the first match of the new league season. Of Midtylland's last five games at home in the league, two went over 2.5 and they kept two clean sheets; Silkeborg's last 5 away games in the league also involved two going overs. Many games between the two sides have come in under 2.5 and, with Midtlylland playing in Europe midweek, the wise bet is for under 2.5.

Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ [2.02]

Gefle v AIK - Swedish Allsvenska, 15:30

Both teams are in good form at the moment and once again I expect them both to score. I'm going for a AIK win; Gefle's last two matches have gone over 2.5 and they went over 3.5 as well. In AIK's last five matches, four have produced over 2.5 goals with three out of their last five away games going overs. I'm very suprised by the odds here and over 3.5 could also come in. After all, AIK let in a lot of goals.

Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.34]

Saturday takes us to Sweden for a lively Allvenska League clash......

Betting.Betfair are delighted to launch a new column: every weekend, on both Saturday and Sunday, our writers will be scouring the football markets to find two overs and unders bets. Today, Adam Preston gets the ball rolling with two shrewd...

Today's bet takes us to the Stadium Of Light. No, not that one. The real one....

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In-Running Week: Royal Ascot special!

Neil Munro / Neil Munro / 22 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Somewhere in the pack is St Barths, meeting interference

"I hope connections run St Barths up with the pace next time, but if he is held up again, I will be supporting him while out the back and then laying off in case he hits trouble again."

Neil Munro brings his In-Play insight to two Royal Ascot runners - with specific betting advice - next time they take to the track

Royal Ascot 2011 is over, long live Royal Ascot 2011! I think it had a bit of everything: split opinion - some were excited by Frankel's run, others disappointed; pure emotion - Michael Owen's reaction to Brown Panther's win; amazement - no winner during the five days for Sir Michael Stoute; happiness - the Queen looked at one with the world everyday; surprise - James Fanshawe hasn't had the best of times recently but his Saturday double proved how good he is with sprinters.

For me personally it was a very quiet one, due to other commitments. Prohibit was a fancy of mine for the Kings Stand due to his consistent record at Ascot but I thought the ground had gone against him so left him alone. And Genki I did get involved with but he just wasn't quite good enough.

But what about the in-running angle? Well, I think that Royal Ascot 2011 proved to me that I am better off playing on the lower profile meetings, or you have to be a lot more conservative with your plays. But there are definitely some horses to take from the early part of the week.

St Barths
The Coventry Stakes always seems to throw up some good stories and I know a lot of people will have noticed St Barths' run but I think there is an in-running angle for the next few outings. We have now seen the two-year-old colt three times on the racecourse and, aside from his win at Leicester when sent off a very short price, he has encountered trouble in the run as connections have tried to deliver him from off the pace. Because he will eventually get a mile, St Barths finishes his races well. I hope connections will run him up with the pace next time, but if he is held up again, I will be supporting him while out the back and then laying off in case he hits trouble again.

Ermyn Lodge
It would have been fantastic for Pat Phelan to have had a Royal Ascot winner but he deserves full credit for the run of Ermyn Lodge in the Ascot Stakes over two miles. It wasn't a complete surprise, despite going off 16/1, as the five-year-old has a cracking record at Ascot and also on good ground so conditions suited. From an in-running point of view he is a strong traveller over extreme trips, thus he catches the eye of backers. In his last six defeats he has traded [3.05] or less five times. Unless the ground is good to firm then back pre-race and lay in-running.

I will be doing further analysis of the Ascot races over the next few days so expect more horses from Royal Ascot 2011 next week.

Eschewing the glamour of Ascot in favour of some horses to focus on long term, Neil Munro returns with his in-running week....

Neil Munro outlines specific In-Play betting strategies for a trio of horses...

Neil Munro explains why, along with the banking crisis, the author of the Communist Manifesto predicted problems for short odds backers at a certain Devon track....

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Summer Solstice night special

Timeform Radio Tip / Andrew Sheret / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Andrew Sheret serves up a pair of promising Tuesday evening bets, including one returning to the track after a lay-off and another looking to end a losing run...

Goat Castle (19:35 Newton Abbot) had some solid handicap form to his name when last seen in the autumn, chasing home the pretty useful Crystal Rock on one occasion, and looks to represent a bit of value against likely market leader Dunowen Point. This seven-year-old has been off the track over seven months but has gone well fresh before and lack of fitness isn't usually an issue with this yard.

Equuleus Pictor (20:50 Newbury) hasn't won for a while but has run well enough of late to suggest he'll be ending his losing sequence before long, not enjoying any luck in running at Leicester last time. This is a lower-class race than John Spearing's gelding usually contests and he's sure to go close if reacting well to first-time cheekpieces.

Recommended Bets
Back Goat Castle @ [3.8] in the 19:35 @ Newton Abbot
Back Equuleus Pictor @ [4.0] in the 20:50 @ Newbury

With British golf fans jubilant and tennis enthusiasts hopeful, it's a quiet day in racing. Terry Norman, however, reckons he's found a promising afternoon bet....

Fresh from a super day's tipping at Royal Ascot yesterday, David Cleary is back for the slightly less glamorous racing on offer today. But don't let that stop you from making some money......

Rain is around for day three of Royal Ascot but that shouldn't dampen enthusiasm for what's been a terrific meeting so far, writes David Cleary....

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In-Running Week: Hold-up special!

Neil Munro / Neil Munro / 01 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Late finishers = big in-running odds

"Trachonitis doesn’t always find quite as much as you would expect and with seven odds-on trades in defeat you can obtain a useful winning position on the rest of the field."

Neil Munro outlines specific In-Play betting strategies for a trio of horses

With in-running trades the temptation is to concentrate on those horses dictating the pace from the front, or being ridden in a prominent manner. But some of the best plays come from those animals that are held up in mid-division, or even further back, but travel with supreme style. This allows you to obtain a clear position on them even before they have started to make their move and then you don't have to worry if they are delivered too late or they don't find as much as expected. Here are some such 'closers' as the Americans would call them.

Trachonitis
John Jenkins' experienced 7yo gelding loves a test of stamina and has five career wins to his name, three on turf and two on the All-Weather. The preferred tactics of Trachonitis since joining Jenkins has been to hold him off the pace and let him travel past tired horses to win the race. But, in all honesty, he doesn't always find quite as much as you would expect and with seven odds-on trades in defeat you can obtain a useful winning position on the rest of the field. His best form on turf has come when the ground is good to firm so beware he could go on to win under those conditions. Otherwise take him on at low odds.

Cai Shen
Richard Hannon's son of Iffraaj has only had six starts in his career but one very noticeable point about him is how well he travels. With three wins in those starts Cai Shen knows how to get his head in front but as he is set harder challenges it is nice to know that you can lay out your position on him during a race before he is even asked the question. In his last two defeats he has traded at [2.5] and [1.51] in the run before finishing second and third. He relishes good to firm ground and will win further races but he is a great trade with the eye catching way he travels.

Rocket Rob
I have to mention a sprinter somewhere and Willie Musson now trains a 5yo who likes to be delivered as late as possible. This leads to many in-running factors with Rocket Rob, who had previously been with Marco Botti, but new connections are persevering with the same tactics. So, as a hold-up sprinter, he quite often hits trouble in-running and it appears that they don't want him at the front to early. His best record is on good to firm ground and he appears to enjoy Sandown. The play on him is that, if you think it is his day back him in-running because he nearly always trades bigger, and if you don't lay him in-running as he travels into the race.

Neil Munro explains why, along with the banking crisis, the author of the Communist Manifesto predicted problems for short odds backers at a certain Devon track....

The flat season is here and with Neil Munro - Betting.Betfair's man for all things in-running......

Neil Munro may have moved from England to Ireland but he still loves the game and the opportunities for In-Play trading on Betfair. He returns with one to watch in spring handicaps this spring and summer...

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Greyhound News Derby Special: Crunch time!

Greyhounds News / The Lord / 25 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Forty-seven dogs are bidding for Derby glory

"In terms of an overall winner, Razldazl Jayfkay would at this stage get the majority vote after two dazzling efforts at Plough Lane... "

There's not long to go now until the biggest race of the season. The Lord has all the latest news in the build up to the 2011 Derby at Wimbledon...

Forty-seven greyhounds - Local Dee Jay was pulled out yesterday - begin the countdown to the most important eight days of their racing lives when the third round of the Derby takes centre-stage at Wimbledon on Saturday.

The first three in each of the eight heats qualify for the quarter-finals on Tuesday, in turn the first three of which will make the semi-finals on Saturday week. Three runs in eight days as the Classic hots up.

But in terms of an overall winner, Razldazl Jayfkay would at this stage get the majority vote after two dazzling efforts at Plough Lane as Dolores Ruth's potential superstar followed up his first-round effort with another terrific effort.

However, the mantle of fastest second-round heat winner didn't go Jayfkay, but rather his litter-brother Razldazl George as the Easter Cup second led earlier this time before powering clear for Team Ruth.

The Irish challenge is again strong this year with Barefoot Bullet also shining for Paul Hennessy. The Gowran handler is bidding to become only the second handler after Nick Savva in the modern day to win all the Derbys, the Irish, English and Scottish. Success at Wimbledon would complete the set.

Saturday's third round heats

Heat One
1 Westmead Guru 2 Droopys Bradley 3 Yahoo Jamie (m) 4 Ministry Magic (m) 5 Pennys Viking (w) 6 Razldazl Jayfkay (w)

Heat Two
1 Buzz Doc 2 Westmead Maldini 3 Diesel Malc 4 Modern Man 5 Fifis Rocket (w) 6 Trevi You Go (w)

Heat Three
1 Krug Ninety Five 2 Local Dee Jay 3 Taylors Sky 4 Legal Rebel (m) 5 Tudor Prince (m) 6 Barefoot Bullet (w)

Heat Four
1 Bright Redcliffe 2 Express Jazz 3 Jackdaw Summer 4 Boher Paddy 5 Nambisco 6 Melodys Royal (w)

Heat Five
1 Big Pair 2 Bockos Boozer 3 Blue Artisan 4 Shaws Dilemma (m) 5 Jonny Whitesox (w) 6 Boher Legend (w)

Heat 6
1 Jazz Apollo 2 Taylors Cruise 3 Coom Bullet 4 Ballymac Barrell (m) 5 Aero Ardiles (m) 6 Destroy The Camp (w)

Heat 7
1 Spinkys Nod 2 Razldazl George 3 Westmead Logan (m) 4 Give Mesome Luck (w) 5 Farloe Skywalker (w) 6 Cloheena Cash (w)

Heat 8
1 Mays Rocknroller 2 Lenson Boss 3 Springlawn Bert 4 Jordansoilutions 5 Rockview Head (m) 6 Bellers Bud (w)

Clockwatchers at Wimbledon have been keeping an eye on when the bowser is put round the circuit, with conditions speeding up as much as 40 spots, say some experts. And for some dogs, that has proved crucial.

One Derby regular said: "There's no question that when the water is put down the track speeds up. It's then difficult to compare like-for-like heat clockings, and for a dog like Fifis Rocket it has proved a god-send as his heat has come twice after the bowser went round."

Fifis Rocket, the dog formerly known as King Lee, is a top-class sprinter

*

Sources close to the GRA have rubbished reports that Oxford is about to close for redevelopment. A local newspaper report has outlined the Cowley track among a number of sites in the area that could be subject to planning permission. But it is unlikely to threaten greyhound racing there.

One source said: "It's no secret that the owners of the GRA, Risk Capital, need to service or make good their debt to the banks which is running at around £50m. And pretty much the 'for sale' notice hangs over thje whole group.

"But this is just a ruse to see what if any interest there is. No planning permission has been applied for and the business itself at Oxford is profitable, it's a good going concern. This is just Risk Capital flying a kite."

Lister's dog moves in to single figures in the antepost Derby betting but first round performance was anything but commanding...

The biggest race in the game is nearly here! The Lord looks forward to the Derby as well as the Betfair Pall Mall and brings good news for lovers of that other great London track, Walthamstow...

Derby gets underway in South West London, Mullins is back in the big time and Sky head for Hove on Tuesday. All this and much more from the Lord's Greyhounds News wrap......

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Follow The Money: Beverley special!

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 10 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Another sunny day in UK racing

"Casper Netscher's stable are not averse to having a gamble and today’s market move makes this horse worth considering."

All today's Follow The Money bets run at Beverley

We start with the opening race, the 5f Maiden Stakes at 14:00 where there has been money for Casper Netscher who has been supported from [17.0] in to [7.0]. This Alan Mccabe trained two-year-old is having his first racecourse outing and is a half brother to Bronze Beau, a three time winner over today's trip. The yard's runners have tended to benefit from a run, but this stable are not averse to having a gamble and today's market move makes this horse worth considering.

Our next selection is today's negative and it's Dance For Livvy in the 15:30 who has drifted from an opening [3.35] out to [4.3]. She arrives here on the back of an all-weather victory at Wolverhampton which was over today's trip of 1m4f and the form of that race has worked out well. She has raced three times on the turf and although they were over shorter distances, she has been well beaten on each occasion, so there are doubts over whether she can transfer that form back to the turf and punters are happy to take her on today.

Our final selection is in the 16:00 1m Handicap and Aquarian Spirit has been heavily supported throughout the morning from [4.6] in to [2.94]. Richard Fahey's runner made a successful reappearance last month in a similar event at Redcar and the form has been boosted as the third that day and has since gone on and won twice. He is only 2lb higher in the ratings and there could be more to come following his first run of the season. With very little support for any of his market rivals, the stable's fine form is expected to continue in this race.

Recommended Bets
Back Casper Netscher @ [7.0] Beverley 14:00
Lay Dance For Livvy @ [4.3] Beverley 15:30
Back Aquarian Spirit @ [2.94] Beverley 16:00

Today's Follow The Money bets run at Brighton and Redcar....

Price movements, market drifts, two backs, one lay. Here's the Follow The Money column....

There's no rest for the wicked, or the Follow The Money column, for that matter. Here are their usual two backs and one lay....

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Snooker World Championship Betting: Semi-finals special

World Snooker Championship Betting / Alex Lee / 28 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is John Higgins set for the final?

"Williams v Higgins provides a trader’s paradise as neither player will remain in the ascendancy for long due to the quality of their opponent."

Alex Lee looks for the betting angles on two compelling World Championship semi-finals at the Crucible...

Once again, the World Snooker Championship has thrown up a closely-matched semi-final contest in the shape of Mark Williams v John Higgins. While Welshman Williams has a little more panache - and speed - about him at the table, Higgins is a fantastic tactician and break-builder. Both players have the requisite qualities to propel them into the final and it is for this reason that I believe it's worth laying Higgins with a view to trading out. Higgins is currently favourite at [1.82] while Williams is [2.2].

More realistically, both should be much closer to evens and the above prices are based on Higgins' recent World Championship record - and his Scottish fan base - than current form. Neither player will be concerned if they go behind early on as both have sufficient mental strength, experience and character to ease their way back into the game. In other words, this match provides a trader's paradise as neither player will remain in the ascendancy for long due to the quality of their opponent.

In the other semi, between Ding Junhui and Judd Trump, keep faith in the more experienced player from China and back him accordingly. Trump's tremendous potting skills temporarily deserted him in the first session and this fact will be at the forefront of both players' minds as the match progresses.

Recommended Bets
Lay Higgins with a view to trading out
Back Ding Junhui

Judd Trump and Mark Williams are through to the semis and it is the former in particular who has his work cut out in the next round. Meanwhile, with some serious heavy scoring coming up, it could pay to side...

So far the focus has been on picking the best bets from the individual matches, but there's a tournament to be won when all is said and done. With the quarter-finals well under way, there are two outstanding candidates, says...

Alex Lee believes Allen can give Williams the game of his life in the clash of the Marks, while Judd Trump will beat Graeme Dott....

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Find Me A 100 Winner: Masters special!

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 05 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Y E Yang - a major winner in good form - what's not to like?

"Perhaps because he's an 'international' player, less recognisable than the top Americans and Europeans, Yang continues to be under-estimated by the market."

Fancy a lively Masters wager at three-figure odds? Then take a look at Paul Krishnamurty's selection...

Spare a thought for a poor golf tipster, after a very frustrating weekend. Last week's pick George Coetzee gave us a great run for our money, challenging all weekend and even holding a four shot lead at one stage. However, while George hit our first lay target and traded down to [3.7], it wasn't quite hit the [3.0] required to bank a further 10 units profit.

Further annoyance followed when the tournament was eventually won by the previous week's selection, David Horsey. Indeed, Horsey would have been retained as a pick, but his [90.0] odds didn't meet the triple-figure criteria. Still any profit is welcome however small and if nothing else, it was great fun to watch.

Hopefully that was a sign of an imminent hot streak and we'll have some better luck at the Masters. When looking at the rollcall of former winners, this seems like a terrible tournament to be backing outsiders as champions have tended to be world-class legends. Take Tiger and Phil out of the equation, however, and recent results tell a different story. All three champions from 2007 to 2009 started the week in triple figures, as did all three play-off candidates on the final occasion. Moreover, numerous outsiders shortened up considerably in all of those renewals.

I'm going in three-handed. First up is 2009 USPGA champion Y E Yang at around [120.0]. Perhaps because he's an 'international' player, less recognisable than the top Americans and Europeans, Yang continues to be under-estimated by the market. This is a major winner, with four European and PGA Tour titles to his name, who twice saw off Tiger Woods at his peak head-to-head. Yang's recent form is fine too, finishing runner-up in the Honda and reaching the quarter-finals of the World Matchplay. Eighth place in last year's Masters confirmed he can cope with Augusta's demands.

Brandt Snedeker is another with a solid record in Majors, making two of the last three US Open top-tens and trading at short odds here in 2008. One of the game's best scramblers, Snedeker is always worth considering at Augusta, and there is plenty to like in recent numbers showing five top-tens from his last 12 PGA Tour starts. Admittedly, Brandt has never dispelled the concerns about his dodgy temperament, that stem from an embarrassing finish behind Trevor Immelman here, but at [200.0] there's plenty of trading mileage.

Finally, Jonathan Byrd may not be quite the no-hoper suggested by odds of [270.0]. As a Georgia resident, he will carry some local support and has done well at Augusta before, making the top-ten on his debut in 2003. This will be his fourth crack at the Masters, which is usually the minimum for candidates to gain the necessary experience, and he's never arrived with higher hopes. It is only three months since Byrd won back-to-back PGA Tour titles, and he also showed good form with top-20s on his two latest starts.

The trading plan is to lay out four units on these three picks, and then place two lay orders on each at [12.0] and then [3.0], therefore banking a profit if any are hit.

Recommended Bets
2u Y E Yang @ [120.0]
1u Brandt Snedeker @ [200.0]
1u Jonathan Byrd @ [270.0]

Place order to lay each player 8u @ [12.0]
Place order to lay each player 10u @ [3.0]

For the first time ever we're set to enjoy live coverage of the Masters Par 3 Contest so Steve's had a look at the history books for clues......

Our man fancies Justin to get off to a flyer, yet again!...

It's not easy to make a mint betting in-running at Augusta but take heed of these five pointers from Paul Krishnamurty before making your In-Play decisions...

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