“I fancy Grace will convert now, there’s no reason to suspect otherwise, but I’m not ploughing in at odds on.”
Our man's kicking himself for not backing Branden Grace in China and he's not best pleased with the weather in Texas either. Read Steve's latest thoughts here...
12:55 - April 21, 2012
Not the greatest 24 hours ever!
Deciding not to back Branden Grace in China was clearly an error. He heads into tomorrow's final round with a three shot lead after shooting an eight-under par 64 this morning and he now trades at odds on!
My crumb of comfort is that George Coetzee also shot 64 and he's now five off Grace's lead; he's not completely out of it by any means. He's in tie for 4th but he'll need help from his fellow South African, help that I can't see coming. I fancy Grace will convert now, there's no reason to suspect otherwise, but I'm not ploughing in at odds on.
Over at the Valero Texas Open, Thursday afternoon's starters enjoyed benign conditions yesterday morning and Ben Curtis, who thankfully I backed modestly on day one, has shot clear after his second straight five-under par round. On -10, he's two clear of David Mathis and three clear of Cameron Tringale who also enjoyed the favourable draw.
My man, Matt Every, is also on -7 (alongside Tringale) but he still hasn't finished round two yet. He'll return shortly to the 17th green where he'll attempt to convert for birdie from 11 feet before tackling the par five 18th and I can't help feeling aggrieved about the weather.
There was an almost two hour weather delay before my man even started his second round and by the time he did get going the benign conditions were long gone. The wind was howling when Every kicked off and it didn't relent all evening. Having failed to make a birdie in the treacherous conditions, he bogeyed four holes in seven from the 6th hole. Mercifully he did manage to pick up a couple of birdies after that and he's back in it. After Tringale and Every, there's a three shot gap to the rest.
With in-running plays Hunter Haas, Freddie Jacobson and Troy Matteson shooting two, four and nine over par respectfully yesterday, I think the best cause of action now is to do nothing more. With a lot of luck, Every can get back on track today and with the wind forecasted to blow again, he might have an advantage over the other three in the leading group, in that he experienced playing in the wind yesterday. Ok, so I'm possibly clutching at straws! Not easy with crossed fingers...
14:35 - April 20, 2012
Is it a day of disasters for my picks? Troy Matteson's just had a nine to shoot his way out of the Valero Texas Open!
14:30 - April 20, 2012
I couldn't quite believe my eyes when I first looked at the Volvo China Open leaderboard this morning. I was quite hopeful that pre-event pick Paul Casey, who had started the day on -4 and three off the lead, would be right in the thick of things. From what I'd seen of the coverage yesterday there was no sign of any injury problems and he looked to be in great form but having scanned up and down the leaderboard several times with bleary morning eyes, I eventually found him, miles down the list. So much for being in the thick of things!
Incredibly, he made a seven at the 2nd hole, a 10 at the 12th, and a seven at the 18th. All three holes are par fives and given he only pared the other one - he played the four long holes in nine over par! Needless to say, he's missed the cut.
In stark contrast, my only other pick, Paul Lawrie, managed a very respectable -5 but he's still six off the halfway lead - held by Gary Boyd and Jean-Baptiste Gonnet. A long way back maybe but I haven't given up all hope.
From the moment I got up I've been toying with backing Branden Grace. He was a couple under par through six holes then and I fancied he could get to, and probably pass, the leader at that time on -9 - Nicolas Colsaerts. Then the leaderboard froze for a while at around 8.00am and when it came back to life Grace had eagled the 7th hole. His price collapsed and I wasn't best pleased. After much deliberation, I decided to leave it alone and go to the gym instead and I'm glad I did. I may well have backed him shorter than he is now if I hadn't gone and after even more deliberation, I've decided to leave him alone for now anyway.
Grace will play with Colsaerts tomorrow and given the pair contended together at the Volvo Champions at Fancourt (similar venue) in January (won by Grace) they'll make for an interesting two-ball tomorrow when they tee-off in the penultimate pairing at 05.37 am UK time. Quite what affect that will have on the pair is anyone's guess. It could inspire either or- or they could both be distracted by playing together again. For the record, I have no idea why Colsaerts (a shot worse off) is shorter than Grace. The Belgian has won only once in over 200 starts (this event last year) whereas Grace has won twice this year already!
Anyway, I've decided to leave Grace alone for now because I think the event's still wide open and I can see anyone from -4 or better getting in the shake-up. 6.611/2 is a fair price but no more than that. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
I have had one bet though, a small play on George Coetzee at an average of 70.069/1. On -5, he's more than capable of putting in a low one tomorrow and I thought he was well worth a small play at those odds.
They're off and running in Texas again and that event will be live on Sky at 3.30pm.
22:35 - April 19, 2012
With the threat of bad weather tomorrow, play has been brought forward and live coverage on Sky starts on Friday at 3.30pm.
22:25 - April 19, 2012
With the Volvo China Open being played throughout the night and the Valero Texas Open finishing late, it's not easy to find an opportune moment to kick-off the blog. I was going to wait until tomorrow afternoon but given I've already been busy trading in Texas; I thought I'd better get it started.
Both of my pre-event picks in China, Paul Casey and Paul Lawrie, were given afternoon tee-times on day one and given that the conditions were a fair bit tougher for the latter starters, I'm quite pleased with their first rounds. Lawrie was slightly disappointing and he needed to birdie the last two holes to shoot level par but Casey did very well. He missed a very makeable birdie chance on the 16th but despite that, still shot -4. He trails first round leader Mathew Baldwin by three shots but he'll be out nice and early in round two (00.15 UK time) and he'll be looking to keep climbing the leaderboard.
Quite pleased with the start in China, I'm chuffed to bits with day one in Texas! I was pretty bullish about Matt Every in my preview and so far he's done me proud. You can't really ask for more than a broken course record can you? After shooting a nine-under par 63 in the favourable morning conditions, he leads by three over Hunter Haas, with a further two shots back to a small group of players tied for 3rd.
Rather than lay any of my bet back I've backed a few more players. I'd written in my preview that up on the pace is where you may need to be from early on here and I'm going to take a chance that that theory's correct. The wind isn't forecasted to die down until Sunday so low rounds could be few and far between over the next few days. I've backed Haas, Fredrik Jacobson - one of those currently tied for 3rd, and I've also backed Ben Curtis and Troy Matteson, who I wish I'd backed before the off.
Haas and Jacobson are done for the day and like Every they'll be out in the afternoon tomorrow but Matteson and Curtis are still playing their first rounds (-3 and -4 respectfully as I write).
When looking at this event before the off I fancied the Sony Hawaiian Open and the Puerto Rico Open might be good guides and Matteson's played well at both. I looked at him closely before the off so I'm slightly miffed I didn't get him onside then.
Curtis is something of a panic buy possibly but at an average of 34.033/1, on -4 after nine holes, I felt he was well worth getting onside.
Volvo China Open Pre-Event Picks:
Paul Lawrie @ 34.033/1
Paul Casey @ 38.037/1
In-Running Play
George Coetzee @ an average of 70.069/1
Valero Texas Open Pre-Event Picks:
Matt Every @ 90.089/1
Brian Gay @ 95.094/1
Matt Bettencourt @ 140.0139/1
In-Running Plays:
Freddie Jacobson @ 12.011/1
Hunter Haas @ 23.022/1
Ben Curtis @ an average of 34.033/1
Troy Matteson @ an average of 60.059/1
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