Ante-post
/ Matt Gardner / 18 January 2012 / Leave a Comment
Al Ferof has looked an exciting prospect in his two chase starts to date.
"Paul Nicholls would not be pitching Al Ferof in at such a level if he was not up to it."
The VC Chase at Ascot on Saturday could easily prove an informative contest with regards to the Champion Chase at Cheltenham but, lest we forget, this race is a Grade 1 in its own right and it is shaping up to be a fascinating affair...
Take a look through the list of winners of the VC Chase, and name after name leaps off the page at you: Desert Orchid in 1989, Viking Flagship in 1994 and the talented-but-fragile Call Equiname in 1999. Any of Saturday's line-up would jump at the chance to put their own names alongside that first-rate group, let alone more recent winners Well Chief, the ill-fated Twist Magic and the fantastic Master Minded.
This year's renewal does have something of a bizarre element to it, however, as a case can be made for all of the principals that they may be better over further, either now or in due course; that is something that will need to be factored in to the quest to find the most likely winner.
A good starting point looks to be the Nicky Henderson-trained Finian's Rainbow, who made his seasonal reappearance a winning one in the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton at the end of December. A bad mistake at the fourth last that day was the main contributory factor to him just scrambling home, rather than any rustiness, and but for that blunder he could well have recorded a ready success.
At the time, the impression was that two miles was his trip, and the fact that he responded terrifically for pressure was just a latent turn of foot. However, an entry in the Gold Cup could suggest that his trainer feels he needs further than two miles, now that his free-going tendencies are seemingly in check, and that would call into question his prospects for both this race and the Champion Chase.
There is almost certainly more to come from the nine-year-old, as suggested by his Timeform weight-adjusted rating of 176p and that he is still fairly unexposed, but that improvement may only come into fruition when stepped up in trip. That slight doubt, combined with the concern that his seasonal reappearance was most definitely belated, gives enough evidence to believe that he is worth taking on, especially at his current price of [2.96].
Another that can realistically be taken on with the distance in mind is the Philip Hobbs-trained Wishfull Thinking, and that is not because he ran a fairly decent July Cup trial in the Tingle Creek last month! The nine year-old's best performances have all come over 20/21f, and while his three-quarter length second to Finian's Rainbow in the Desert Orchid Chase last time demonstrated that at least the lion's share of his ability remains intact, it also highlighted that he will likely prove best when stepped back up in trip.
Somersby is a fairly difficult horse to weigh up, and is seemingly at the stage in his career where he needs to be turning the ability he clearly possesses into race wins. Admittedly he is largely holding his form, with a second in the Amlin Chase and the Peterborough Chase and a fourth in the King George alongside a success in a minor event at Kempton to show for his efforts this season, surely making him the most consistent enigma in training! His defeat to Master Minded in the Amlin can be excused, as he is not as good as that rival, as can his first crack at three miles in the King George.
What cannot be as readily excused, however, is his failure to win the Peterborough Chase despite having by far the best chance on form. He did not convince entirely with his attitude that day, notwithstanding the fact that he was not seen to the best advantage as a result of the tactics employed. He had looked in need of the step up to three miles but did not shape nearly as well as expected at Kempton on Boxing Day, and will need the dramatic drop in trip to spark somewhat of a restoration to how he performed in the corresponding contest last year (short-head second to Master Minded).
That said, at the prices he is tempting, currently trading at [7.2], and he is Timeform-top rated, with a couple of pounds in hand over Finian's Rainbow. However, it is up for debate as to whether he can get his head in front of a slightly younger and more inexperienced rival, who could well develop into one of the best chasers around.
That rival is Al Ferof who, after just two starts over fences has achieved a Timeform weight-adjusted rating of 169p. The Paul Nicholls-trained seven year-old produced a very smart performance when winning the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham last year and has taken extremely well to chasing, landing novices at Cheltenham (Grade 2) and Sandown (Grade 1). His jumping, on his most recent start in particular, looked assured and although he only beat For Non Stop by a neck, he was almost certainly idling after leaping to the front earlier than suits and was always doing enough to hold the runner-up, himself looking a bright prospect.
Yes, he does not have as much chasing experience as his rivals, but Finian's Rainbow is, after all, just the one race out of novice company and Paul Nicholls would not be pitching Al Ferof in at such a level if he was not up to it. The signs from his two most recent runs would suggest that he is.
Of the others, Gauvain would have the best chance, but it would be disappointing if none of the aforementioned quartet were to beat him, Forpadydeplasterer is not the force he once was, for all that he has been running respectably in Ireland, whilst the in-form Oiseau de Nuit and the David Pipe-trained I'm So Lucky are unlikely to be good enough and would be of more interest in a lesser event.
An intriguing contest then in which, at the prices, Somersby makes plenty of appeal and Finian's Rainbow does not. Arguably, the latter is the most likely winner but the price currently available does not strike as being particularly good value when considering the niggling doubts regards his trainers' opinion of his optimum distance and the belatedness of his reappearance. On the other hand the [7.2] available about Somersby is very tempting indeed, but he is difficult to recommend as a win selection. His last three successes, spanning from November 2009 to the present, have all been achieved in fields of five runners or less, and whilst his price is enticing it is preferable to side with the exciting Al Ferof. Paul Nicholls' grey looks a chasing star in the making, and he could well be up to taking the Grade 1 VC Chase on his way to the Cheltenham Festival.
Recommendation
Back Al Ferof @ [4.0] in the VC Chase at Ascot
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