Showing posts with label Preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Preview. Show all posts
Sunday, August 25, 2013
Monday, August 12, 2013
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Temple Stakes Preview: Sprinting our way to Haydock success
"Sole Power didn't improve when making a winning return to the UK in the Palace House last time, a performance figure of 122 matching that which he has achieved on three occasions previously, but the visual impression was startling..."
Timeform's Matt Gardner gets to grips with the feature race on Saturday, the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock Park...
As is so often the case when previewing a race ante-post, the one unfathomable with regards to the Temple Stakes is not who will run, but in what state the ground will be.
Assessing a handicap ante-post is a nightmare, as you then have marks and possible alternative targets to take into account, but it is often more straightforward with pattern races, as connections tend to point out just which race they are likely to assign their charge or, indeed, if they intend not to run at all. Roger Charlton, for example, was very helpful this morning by announcing that Mince would skip Haydock and instead head to Chantilly for the Prix du Gros-Chene at Chantilly next weekend.
That leaves us with a field of 19 to wade through, though once you deduct the sprinters that are all of a similar ability, yet unlikely to trouble the judge in a race of this nature, you are really only left with six. Eight at a push.
The pair that I'm struggling to include in the "potential winners" category are Kingsgate Native and Tangerine Trees, though if I'm being fair they both ran excellent races to finish second and third respectively in the Palace House at Newmarket. Kingsgate Native is something of an enigma these days, certainly talented but also untrustworthy, and he is just as likely to bomb out as he is to get his head in front for the first time since winning the Temple in 2010, whilst Tangerine Trees, who is seemingly in the middle of a revival, could go well if he continues to regain his form but will need to be right at his peak to trouble a few of these.
The solid option, as has been the case in the top-end sprints for a while now and will continue to be so unless something else emerges in the near future, is the Eddie Lynam-trained Sole Power, who more often than not runs his race. He arguably should have won more in his career to date, his defeat in the corresponding race last year at the hands of Bated Breath particularly painful for my wallet, but it is difficult to knock either his consistency or his attitude.
Sole Power didn't improve when making a winning return to the UK in the Palace House last time, a performance figure of 122 matching that which he has achieved on three occasions previously, but the visual impression was startling and it is possible to argue that he looked better than ever, with the five-year-old still straining Johnny Murtagh's reins two furlongs from home despite the race having been run at a decent pace.
Sole Power had his optimum conditions at Newmarket, a well-run five furlongs on quick ground, and if that comes about again on Saturday he will be a force to be feared.
Having mentioned that the sprint division could do with a couple of additions, some new kids on the block as it were, it would be wrong of us to not discuss the chances of Reckless Abandon, Pearl Secret and Swiss Spirit.
Of that trio Reckless Abandon is the youngest and, in the eyes of many, boasts the most potential, kicking off his three-year-old campaign with an unbeaten record which includes triumphs in the Norfolk Stakes, the Prix Morny and the Middle Park. He is a proper speedball and it is refreshing to see connections sticking to their guns, right in the assertion that he is a sprinter, rather than attempting to stretch out his stamina for a tilt at the Guineas (are you listening Moohaajim and co?).
The problem facing Reckless Abandon is the same one to have faced many a three-year-old sprinter, in that they find it most difficult to mix it with their elders. If anything this issue is exacerbated with Clive Cox's charge, as he is forced to carry a 4 lb Group 1 penalty, and on his first run of the season he could just prove susceptible.
Pearl Secret is a four-year-old but has taken to the track on an equal number of occasions to Reckless Abandon, five to be precise. He made an instant impression, landing his first three assignments in impressive fashion prior to taking a listed race at Sandown, where he wasn't quite so flashy but was disadvantaged by the distinct lack of pace. He carried my cash on his first foray into Group 1 company in the Nunthorpe last year but could hardly have had more go against him, racing on the unfavoured stand-side having had just about the worst of the draw before being hampered a furlong out, finishing with any amount of running left.
It is well worth forgiving that effort, and the suspicion remains that he will develop into a real top-notch sprinter, though the murmurs emanating from the David Barron camp are that they wouldn't mind a spot of rain before Saturday. Looking at the forecast, I'm not so sure that their prayers will be answered.
Swiss Spirit has had much more racing than either of the two we've just discussed but my inkling is that we are yet to see the best of him. He has always struck as one with plenty of talent and that talent has surfaced on occasion, particularly so when scoring in a Group 3 at Newbury last year, but his headstrong ways often got the better of him. A change of stable from David Elsworth to John Gosden over the summer caught the eye, as did his performance in the Duke of York on his reappearance, making good headway approaching the final furlong before fading in the closing stages.
Swiss Spirit is sure to be sharper for that run and, such is the pace he has shown in his races, he will not be inconvenienced by the return to five furlongs. If anything, he could thrive at this distance and, allied with a faster surface, could finally show the latent ability he has long since hinted at possessing.
The others to make up our shortlist are Maarek and Spirit Quartz, with the first mentioned of definite interest were the heavens to open and the latter a consistent performer, if just a shade below the top level.
Where does that leave us in terms of a bet then? Well, if I'm honest, I'm not entirely sure. Sole Power is the solid option and created an excellent impression when winning the Palace House, so it is incredibly difficult to take him on, but both Pearl Secret and Swiss Spirit boast confirmed ability alongside as yet untapped potential.
The wise play is to get Sole Power on side, safe in the knowledge of a good run, and to also take a bit of a chance on one of the exciting horses. Pearl Secret has the most scope for improvement but may want a bit more juice in the ground so I will take Swiss Spirit, who could thrive with this combination of five furlongs on a quick surface.
Recommendations:
Back Sole Power @ 4.216/5
Back Swiss Spirit @ 11.010/1
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Sunday, May 19, 2013
La Liga Preview: Emery could leave Sociedad biting their nails
"Over 2.5 Goals has been the right bet in 7/8 Sevilla home games and 8/13 Sociedad away matches"
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75/7
The Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan is the setting for the biggest game of La Liga's ante-penultimate weekend. Tobias Gourlay reckons in-form Sevilla's clash with fading Sociedad will be fun...
Zaragoza v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday 18:00
Zaragoza 1.910/11 Athletic 4.3100/30 draw 3.9n/a
Athletic are unbeaten in four and the seven points accrued in that run will likely keep their 'never been relegated' boasts alive.
Just to be sure, Marcelo Bielsa's men need one more point from the final three rounds of the season.
Seven points from nine have fired Zaragoza out of the relegation zone, but they need more wins.
Athletic have scored in 12/14 on the road and conceded in 12/14 on the road.
Zaragoza have been potent in attack recently - scoring six in two at La Romareda - and porous in defence all season, shutting out their visitors in only 3/17.
Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.84/5
Barcelona v Valladolid
Sunday 20:00
Barcelona 1.3130/100 Valladolid 11.010/1 draw 6.611/2
Barcelona are champions and are now playing for the artificial prize of equalling Real Madrid's all-time points record (100, set last year).
To make three figures Tito Vilanova's men must win each of their last three games.
Leo Messi will sit out the rest of the season, but other team news is scant.
We'll focus on the other end of the pitch. Valladolid have scored in nine straight rounds of La Liga and in each of the last 17 in which talismanic wide-forward Patrick Ebert has appeared.
Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.774/5
Granada v Osasuna
Saturday 19:00
Granada 2.186/5 Osasuna 4.216/5 draw 3.259/4
Together on 36 points, these two are four clear of the drop zone.
A draw would be useful to both, and respect the improvements they have recently shown: Osasuna beat Getafe last time out, while Granada are unbeaten in four.
That said, the hosts still have La Liga's worst home record (W4-D6-L7) and haven't scored more than once in any of Lucas Alcaraz's seven matches at Los Carmenes.
We're ready to take them on - and will front up with either the straight draw or a bet that goes even further.
The visitors have scored twice or more in 3/6 on the road. Backing Osasuna 0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap pays out on half your stake if the game finishes all-square and you'll get a full payout if the away side take all three points.
Recommended Bet
Back Osasuna 0 & +0.5 @ 2.26/5
Sevilla v Sociedad
Saturday 21:00
Sevilla 2.0811/10 Sociedad 3.613/5 draw 4.03/1
In the race for Spain's final Champions League spot, Real Sociedad have given up a five-point lead over Valencia in the last couple of weeks.
Problems are arising at the back: Philippe Montanier's side have conceded exactly twice in 5/7 home and away.
Unai Emery has won 7/8 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. In all seven wins Sevilla have been ahead by half-time. If you fancy them to confirm Sociedad's loss of form, take them at 3.613/5 in the Half Time/Full Time market.
Over 2.5 Goals is a safer play. It's been the right bet in 7/8 Sevilla home games and 8/13 Sociedad away matches.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75/7
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Sunday, March 31, 2013
Torneo Final Big Match preview: Weakened Vélez will still test River's impressive home form
"Expect some early tentative prodding and probing before the game settles, and it should all open up once one team has scored."
Back Draw/River on the HT/FT @ 5.79/2
There are many games in Argentina this weekend that could be deemed important or intriguing enough to be labelled our 'big match' this week, but the defending champions visiting a potential champion just about pips it. Ed Malyon takes a look...
Vélez Sarsfield head into the city to play River Plate in a fascinating game between two of the best sides in the country right now.
River seem to permanently have one of the strongest playing squads in the league but the unique set of circumstances surrounding the club, especially the pressure or playing for such a giant, mean that things have rarely been plain-sailing for the Millionarios in recent seasons.
Having returned from their humiliating relegation to the Primera B in 2011, Matías Almeyda failed to make a talented squad into a genuine contender and left his post in late 2012.
Ramón Diaz returned to the club as manager, and 2013 has started very well for the club.
At the beginning of the weekend they are in third, and although Lanús look a tough act to catch as things stand, the meeting between the two sides later in the campaign is likely to be the championship decider one way or another.
This weekend Diaz has changed his system to a 4-4-2, and it is difficult to know how this will turn out. Leading scorer Diego 'Chino' Luna misses out again, so David Trezeguet will play up front and Rodrigo Mora will be the man charged with doing all his legwork for him. Opting for a 4-4-2 rather than the previously preferred 3-4-1-2 will give River more options in wide areas, so we might see this formation getting the best out of Trezeguet, who has started to find some goalscoring form with two goals in his last three home games.
For all River's ups and downs over the last few years, Vélez have been the very picture of stability and their sustained success on the field is doubtlessly down to the sensible way in which the club is run.
Ricardo Gareca has been given years in the job - a rare luxury on this continent - and continually evolves and regenerates his side, understanding that he must sell his players at the peak of their value in order to maintain progress.
Nonetheless, the quality of his sides rarely waver and the loan signing of Fernando Gago - exceptional for Argentina at the weekend and undoubtedly a top international midfielder - has been a coup for the Fortín.
Gareca has had to rely on youngsters to step up too, but they do so with an alarming regularity and 20-year-old full-back Gino Perruzi made a first Argentina start on Tuesday evening to continue his remarkable development after famously shackling Neymar in last year's Copa Libertadores.
The other thing that Gareca does well is invest, and the purchase of young forward Facundo Ferreyra from Banfield turned out to be inspired as his late-season rush of form turned out to be vital in them winning the Torneo Inicial in December. Probably more importantly though, Vélez can expect to sell him for around five times what they bought him for when his European suitors finally decide to stump up the cash.
This season hasn't begun so well for Vélez, with Gareca admiring that the Copa Libertadores is his priority and playing weakened sides in the league, but for games like this there is little chance of him resting players.
By that token, the side Gareca puts out is expected to be as strong as possible, although Gago (unfit) and Fabian Cubero (suspended) are both missing. They are comfortable in their 4-3-1-2 shape and up against River's tactical experiment they will be undoubtedly be the more settled side, even though River have a touch more quality.
River: Marcelo Barovero; Gabriel Mercado, Leandro González Pirez, Jonathan Bottinelli, Diego Martínez; Carlos Sánchez, Cristian Ledesma, Leonardo Ponzio, Leonel Vangioni; Rodrigo Mora, David Trezeguet.
Vélez: Sosa; Peruzzi, Sabia, Domínguez, Papa; Bella, Cerro, Romero; Insúa; Copete, Pratto.
Match odds
With Vélez having won the last three meetings between these two and River boasting just one victory in their last seven meetings, Gareca's side have the clear advantage in recent times.
River are obvious favourites at 2.3411/8 given current league position, but also because of how strong they've been at El Monumental this season. Three wins from three will give them much confidence heading into Saturday's match, and the absence of Gago, Cubero and Facundo Ferreyra from the Vélez lineup means that this price seems justified, even if you know that Gareca will always put out a competitive and hard-to-beat XI.
Goals
As touched on before, Vélez will be difficult to break down - even for River - and the central defensive partnership of Sebastián Dominguez and Juan Sabia are very solid at this level.
Four of Vélez's last 15 games have gone over 2.5 goals, but all of those have been when the Fortín were sticking a few goals past far weaker opposition, something we shouldn't expect at River.
The hosts have seen five of their last 15 go over that mark, and three in eight since Diaz took over. While the price is as short as 1.584/7 the unders are to be avoided, with half of River's 12 home games going overs since they returned to the top flight.
The value lies in the overs at 2.68/5 even though the visitors will look to stay compact.
Other bets
Expect some early tentative prodding and probing before the game settles, and it should all open up once one team has scored. On that model, Draw/River on the HT/FT market looks a tempting bet at 5.79/2 or even just the half-time draw at 2.111/10.
Lucas Pratto's physical approach could trouble River's defence - definitely the hosts' weakest area - so Both Teams to Score is also worth consideration at 2.0621/20.
Recommended Bet
Back Draw/River on the HT/FT @ 5.79/2
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Friday, March 22, 2013
Coolmore Classic Preview: Another for Demi
Weight-adjusted Timeform ratings suggest three-year-olds could regain their dominance this afternoon with Dear Demi rated marginally ahead of Flying Snitzel and Bennetta in what is a very evenly graded field, making value the key for any punter wanting a wager...
The Group 1 Coolmore Classic for fillies and mares over 1500m at Rosehill has assembled the usual strong line up of the fairer sex, headed in the quality handicap by multiple Group 1-winning mare Streama...
First run in 1973, the Coolmore Classic has been won by some of Australia's finest female gallopers, including the mighty Sunline who won the feature twice (2000/2002), Typhoon Tracy, Alverta, Bounding Away and Emancipation.
The race was once considered the domain for three-year-old fillies, but in the last three years the older mares have had the edge with Ofcourseican (2012), Aloha (2011) and Alverta (2010) scoring, Typhoon Tracy the last three-year-old to win in 2009 with the youngsters winning five of the previous ten renewals including that win.
Weight-adjusted Timeform ratings suggest three-year-olds could regain their dominance this afternoon with Dear Demi rated marginally ahead of Flying Snitzel and Bennetta in what is a very evenly graded field, making value the key for any punter wanting a wager. Owned by John Singleton, Dear Demi will be aiming to give the popular owner of Strawberry Hill Stud a second win in the race, Singleton having already won the race in 2007 with another three-year-old Tuesday Joy ridden by Darren Beadman.
In fact there are similarities between the two fillies coming into the Coolmore. Tuesday Joy had won the Wakeful Stakes and was runner up in the VRC Oaks in Melbourne during the spring and was second in the Surround Stakes prior to her storming win the Coolmore. On the other hand, Dear Demi was unlucky in the Wakeful Stakes before winning the VRC Oaks as well as the Surround Stakes last start. Both rated similarly with Timeform on 118.
Singleton also owned Gentle Genius who started at 200-1 when narrowly beaten in a close finish by Sunline in her second Coolmore win in 2002. As for Dear Demi this afternoon, I believe she can improve further as she currently sits around four pounds below her peak rating and could not have been more impressive last start winning the Surround Stakes from Driefontein, showing a great turn of foot in the closing stages after settling second last early.
So quickly did she arrive at the finish that race rider Jim Cassidy half eased her down to win by a neck. That was Cassidy's second win aboard the filly having been atop her in the VRC Oaks. Today he hopes to post a third win in the Coolmore having already been successful on Shamekha (2004) and Flitter (1995). On paper, there should be good speed in the race with three or four go forward types. Cassidy should be able to settle Dear Demi worst than midfield early and produce her when the front runners start gasping for air.
Last start impressive Flemington winner Flying Snitzel, Timeform rated 114, is hard to overlook as a genuine improver. After an even effort when resuming in the Light Fingers Stakes (1200m) at Rosehill, trainer Gerald Ryan sent the filly to Melbourne for the G2 Kewney Stakes at Flemington over 1400m.
Coming off a 21 day break since her first up run she did not disappoint. Ridden far more patiently by Craig Williams than had been the case to that time, Flying Snitzel unleashed a devastating burst of acceleration taking her from 10th place 200m from home to an idling length and a quarter win.
Clearly the gear change of removing the blinkers and putting winkers on combined with a more patient ride led to a new peak performance. Craig Williams stays atop the filly today and a similar ride combined with an additional 100m in distance should see her right in the finish.
The lightly-raced filly Bennetta is deserving of another chance. Up until last start she had carried all before her in three previous runs culminating in an impressive Light Fingers Stakes victory from Ichihara, a form line that now looks substantial after that filly's win in last Saturday's Eskimo Prince Quality under a big weight. However, running as an even money favourite in the Surround last time out Bennetta was never a winning hope getting home meekly after a wide run facing the breeze at Warwick Farm.
It would be wise to overlook that run by Bennetta. She has a Timeform rating of 115 and with crack rider Glen Boss to take over pilot duties combined with a four kilo weight drop she certainly has a winning weight if she can reproduce her best. The fact Glen Boss who shares the mantle with Cassidy as the most successful Coolmore riders in the race is no burden for her either, the three-time Melbourne Cup winning jockey has already won the Coolmore aboard Aloha (2011) and Typhoon Tracy (2009).
The history of the Coolmore is definitely against those horses highly weighted. Apart from Sunline who was a freak, no winner has carried more than 56 kgs to win in the last 20 years. Early favourite Steps In Time, Streama and Red Tracer are all handicapped above 56kgs and more importantly all were unplaced last year carrying less weight than today.
Older mares Appearance and Zurella loom as prospects along with the Gai Waterhouse trained three-year-old Driefontein. All are must includes for multiple players.
Appearance from the Guy Walter stable scored an upset win in the G1 Myer Classic over 1600m at Flemington on Derby day in the spring. She comes into the race today third up from a spell - the same state she was in on Myer Classic day. That is a significant lead for punters, Walter aiming to repeat a winning formula. Both her fresh runs were sound and a return to her peak Timeform rating of 114 keeps her under notice.
New Zealand mare Zurella is an interesting one to assess. Timeform rated 111, she did not train on in the spring when set for a Caulfield Cup campaign. Runner up in the New Zealand Oaks at three, she came to Melbourne at four winning the G2 Let's Elope Stakes over 1400m at Flemington in impressive fashion but then lost form. Here she is second up after an equally eye catching fresh up run in the G1 Waikato Draught Sprint over 1400m, flashing home from near last in the 13 horse field to take third place behind Final Touch.
The biggest problem for her today is the 1500m around Rosehill which may be a shade short in distance. That said she is a quality mare and cannot be dismissed entirely.
Driefontein, Timeform rated 115, is on trial at 1500m but she has been steadily working up to a win, just failing to hold out Dear Demi in the Surround Stakes last time out. With no weight on her back and the ability to race handy, it would come as no surprise to see her in the frame at the finish.
Off Time: 05.10BST
Recommendation:
Back Dear Demi @ 7.50n/a in the Coolmore Classic
Get FREE Timeform Star Ratings & Verdicts for racing in Australia and New Zealand at timeform.com/free/
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Jamie Lynch's Flat Season Preview: Look to the stars
With the Flat season upon us, Jamie Lynch hijacks one of the oldest - and phoniest - belief systems in the book, the signs of the zodiac, to analyse a dozen of the major racing personalities for 2013...
This novel that McCoy is supposed to be writing may turn out to be a hit given he has something in common with Kingsley Amis, Henry Fielding, Daphne du Maurier and William Shakespeare: they're all Taurus. It's written in the stars, you see, which is just as well as God only knows when he'll get the time to write it on earth.
Then again, according to Astrology In Depth, Taureans hate discomfort, dislike hard work and are therefore inclined to seek occupations where they can hold back rather than risk themselves: being anything other than a jump jockey, in other words. When McCoy nearly won the Gold Cup aboard Sir des Champs it had nothing to do with horoscopes. Dirty scopes yes, but horoscopes no.
It's the Babylonians' fault. The race that gave us one of the Seven Wonders of the Ancient World - their Hanging Gardens - undid all that good work by also leaving the legacy of one of the Seven Biggest Red Herrings of the Modern World, courtesy of astrology. The other six, for what it's worth, are democracy, Feng Shui, the KitchenAid, multivitamins, the going stick and John Bishop.
I, and hopefully you, can't have astrology at any price, though I'm a Libra, hence a cynic by nature. The idea that our lives are governed by celestial forces out of this world is out of this world, almost as hard to stomach as the fact Russell Grant can and does charge £22.99 for a ten minutes on the phone. I know this as it says so on his website, but also because I rang up for a racing-related reading, to determine what the stars in the sky say about the stars on the level for the 2013 Flat season.
ARIES (March 21 - April 19)
Case study - John Gosden (born March 30)
Russell says: The awards of last year hang heavy around your neck, but keeping a cool head, even under various gravitas-giving hats, is the hallmark of Aries. Remember how tall you are. You're looked up to by your peers, particularly in interviews. Keep talking the American talk. Focus on the spring equinox and the positive of the sun moving in rather than the spring clean and the negative of Nathaniel, Great Heavens, Izzi Top and Thought Worthy moving out. You still have the skill, you still have the fire and, most importantly, you still have The Fugue.
TAURUS (April 20 - May 20)
Case study - Dawn Approach (born April 23)
Russell says: The bull. You're strong like one, you took none of it in 2012, and the bigger china shops are open for you this year. Once you're at full force there's no stopping you. However, yours is a fixed sign, meaning you can be slow to change, including gear, so beware those flat spots that could prevent high points. Similarly fixed are your targets, and you apparently won't go that extra mile-and-a-half, for the ultimate test at Epsom, though the people around you may want a new approach.
GEMINI (May 21 - June 20)
Case study - Pearl Bloodstock (first ever runner June 2)
Russell says: Think Gemini, think twins, and the twin virtues of intent and megabucks makes you an irresistable power in 2013. Wednesday is Gemini's luck day, though any day is a lucky day for those whose door you come-a-knocking with unrefusable offers. If you can't breed 'em, buy 'em. Look out Ballydoyle and Godolphin, there's a new superpower in town. Geminis go well with other Geminis, their compitability high and ambitions the same, so the link-up with Jamie Spencer (born June 8) is a match made in heaven, literally star-crossed lovers.
CANCER (June 21 - July 22)
Case study - USA (Independence Day July 4)
Russell says: Just like the crab, American racing is going only sideways, if not backwards. That hard outer shell, used for protection, is in danger of acting as a buffer to the rest of the world. You've got a lot going for you, so look out rather than in, and have the courage of your convictions to see certain issues through. The racing world will be a better place with more of you in it, so be Wise (Dan), and let's see the Animal (Kingdom) in you.
LEO (July 23 - August 22)
Case study - Black Caviar (born August 18)
Russell sings Simply Red, appropriately Stars: Anyone who ever saw you, would tell you the way I'm feeling. Anyone who ever took on you, would have to tell you that they're hurting inside. The only thing that left you daunted, was the feeling that you ain't Frankel. But he has gone while you are still about, turn up and win it, can't get beat. And I, see a name in the stars, it's you Black Caviar. I've seen you, at Ascot, I hope you come again.
VIRGO (August 23 - September 22)
Case study - Ryan Moore (born September 18)
Russell says: Virgos, symbolised by the virgin, are often considered to be shy individuals, but that can sometimes mask the demon within, as is the case with you. You're hungry, probably literally and certainly metaphorically, and the time has come for you to regain your rightful place at the top of your profession. To get there you need only two things: more luck than in recent years, and a certain knighted Libran to start re-pulling his considerable weight.
LIBRA (September 23 - October 22)
Case study - Aidan O'Brien (born October 16)
Russell says: Listen. Because Librans enjoy balance in their lives, they like to keep all options open, favouring discussions which tend to be more seated than heated. Librans have loads of speed. You, weighing up everything on the symbolic scales, are meticulous, but also far-sighted, even in dodgy sunglasses. Camelot's dimming star is balanced by the rising star of Kingsbarns, and amid all the pressure you, as an even-tempered Libran, keep your cool. You're Mr Cool. Mr Coolmore.
SCORPIO (October 23 - November 21)
Case study - Channel 4 (first broadcast November 2)
Russell says: Like the scorpion, you're fiercly independent, which is a good job as you have the field to yourself now. Like the scorpion can lose its tail and promptly grow a new one, you too have tremendous regenerative powers, and this is a big year for you following the latest evolution. Like the scorpion would rather kill itself than be killed, you force the issues and have a style that some find overbearing, but mostly it's exciting and, with a bit of Luck and spot of Cunning, you'll revolutionise the way we watch racing.
SAGITTARIUS (November 22 - December 21)
Case study - Graham Lee (born December 16)
Russell says: The archer is depicted as a centaur, half man half beast, making Sagittarius a dual sign, and you are the ultimate dual jockey. You literally had your ups and downs over jumps, but the Flat is where it's at, and you, as an archer, are aiming higher and higher: well over 100 of your arrows will hit the bullseye this year. Influential is the North Star. In fact, you are the North Star.
CAPRICORN (December 22 - January 19)
Case study - Marco Botti (born December 23)
Russell says: Being born just one day into Capricorn puts you on the cusp, and you're on the cusp of the big time. Your symbol is the goat, who loves to climb to the top of the mountain, and you too are showing that same ambition, with a new base, new targets and new stars. One such star, Moohaajim, might just give a certain Taurean something to think about in a
AQUARIUS (January 20 - February 18)
Case study - Frankie Dettori (born January 23)
Russell says: Who knows? Even horoscopes can't predict the unpredictable. Look at last year. Let's just hope you keep out of big bother and big brother this time.
PISCES (February 19 - March 20)
Case study - Hydrogen (born March 12)
Russell says: A water sign. H2-oh no. Rarely does the reality match the hype, even when the stars are aligned. It's all about the money, money, money, and it's not so easy to forget about the price tag when it's £2.5m, the most expensive yearling in the world last year. Who knows if you'll become a star, but the star-signs are there.
You can read an interview with Marco Botti, as well as Jamie's definitive views on the classic ante-post markets and the jockeys' championship in Timeform Horses To Follow (2013 Flat season).
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US Sunday Preview: Rivals to rattle Shakin It Up
Calling the winner is far from easy and a lay of the favourite Shakin It Up might be the best play with big doubts about his stamina...
Graeme North concentrates on the high-quality action at Sunland Park on Sunday...
It's very seldom in the States that racing at Sunland Park takes centre stage but it does for once on Sunday when the seven stakes races headed by the G3 Sunland Derby (off local time 17:40, 23:40 GMT) has lured some useful horses out into New Mexico for purses worth almost $1.5million.
The Sunland Derby is the last of the races worth 50 points to the winner in the new and disputed points system put in place this year to determine eligibility for the Kentucky Derby, and the first thing to say is that the quality of the nine-runner field it has attracted doesn't merit it being given equal standing with the likes of the Holy Bull, for example, in which current Timeform top-rated three-year-old Itsmyluckyday beat top 2012 juvenile Shanghai Bobby. For all top trainers Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher are represented in a bid for an opportunistic invite to a race their respective charges as things stand wouldn't get anywhere near if qualification was decided on merit.
Top on Timeform ratings by 4lb and Morning Line favourite at 3.5 is Shakin It Up, one of two horses in the field trained by Baffert and the only Graded Stakes winner in the field. That win in the San Vincente Stakes at Santa Anita last time out (where the reopposing Mudflats was well held) was gallant enough, and there's little doubt he has unquestionably the best form credentials running to a Timeform rating of 106 on three separate occasions, but he still has to prove his stamina going two turns and beyond seven furlongs for the first time. And, being by the dual Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Midnight Lute out of an unraced mare by the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Vindication, there has to be a big doubt whether he will see out the nine furlongs.
Baffert's other runner (and 7 on the Morning Line) is Govenor Charlie who beat subsequent winner Footbridge in a maiden on the same Santa Anita card that Shakin It Up won the San Vincente and he seems likely to make the most improvement of the three twice-raced maiden winners in the line-up. That trio includes Pletcher's Abraham but the form of his Gulfstream Park win is nothing obviously special with four of the sextet he beat that day having been beaten again since but in his favour he has at least shown he stays this trip.
Top local trainer Joel Marr saddles Dry Summer who beat the re-opposing Show Some Magic and Stormdriver in the local prep race that commemorates the last winner of the Sunland Park Derby that went on to win the Derby, the Mine That Bird Stakes, and he shouldn't be far away with home-track advantage a much bigger factor at Sunland Park than many other American venues. He's a better horse than his three unsuccessful attempts in Graded company so far suggest, albeit one of those was in the Breeders' Cup Turf, but all the same it would be a surprise if he was good enough. Calling the winner is far from easy and a lay of the favourite Shakin It Up might be the best play with big doubts about his stamina.
There looks a decent betting opportunity in the preceding Sunland Park Oaks (17:08, 23:08 GMT) if the Morning Line is to be believed with the Bob Baffert representative Midnight Lucky priced up very short at 3.5 in a field among which three-time winner Unusual Way and the Todd Pletcher-trained Majestic River have better form and, more pertinently perhaps, proven stamina.
Midnight Lucky won her maiden in a fast time admittedly at Santa Anita but like her stable-companion Shakin It Up is by Midnight Lute and the fact her dam was a maiden sprinter too suggests she is worth taking on with proven stayer and track performer Countess Curlin another in the mix. Twice-raced Majestic River has the best form without allowing for likely further improvement, however, and the 5 Morning Line forecast looks quite generous.
Rose's Desert in the 15:13 (21:13 GMT) and Safe Trip in the 16:09 (22:09 GMT) also both look to hold very good claims.
Recommended bets:
1pt lay Shakin It Up in the Sunland Derby
1pt back Majestic River in the Sunland Oaks
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Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Jamie Lynch's Cheltenham Day One Preview: Context is king
Our Chief Correspondent looks at day one of the Festival, in which he thinks punters have been twisting the big-race favourite's words and getting too attached to working-class heroes.
'Energy, razzmatazz and technical wizardry' was the testimonial blazoned across the posters and billboards. Who wouldn't want to have seen Sinatra At The London Palladium, a video presentation of the late singer's greatest recordings, staged in 2006, on the back of such an ardent endorsement? Only it wasn't.
The Observer reviewer's complete line, from which the promotional extract was craftily taken, was in actual fact: 'I couldn't help feeling that, for all the energy, razzmatazz and technical wizardry, the audience had been shortchanged.' I'm not sure whether Accentuate The Positive was part of the Sinatra posthumous setlist.
Selective editing is the game and contextomy is its name, the dangerous art of quoting out of context, and it's rife, including in the highly-interpretive world of horse racing analysis. Besides painting a potentially misleading picture, 'quote mining' can also serve to contaminate subsequent interpretation of the original testament, and that's more or less the crux of it with Hurricane Fly, the horse around which the Champion Hurdle.
The critics who are unconvinced by Hurricane Fly tend to pull out one excerpt in particular: he didn't win the race last year when expected to. The 2012 Champion Hurdle, as evidence, is case closed as far as the prosecution is concerned, concluding that why now if not then, especially as, at the age of nine, two years older than the average winner, he must be looking down the hill if not quite over it?
A persuasive enough argument, but based on an isolated incident, and last year's Champion Hurdle is out of context as well as out of character for Hurricane Fly.
His complete bio, from which the pejorative phrase was extracted and distortedly magnified, reads: Hurricane Fly, successful in 14 Grade 1 events including the 2011 Champion Hurdle, didn't win the race last year when expected to, but his odds of 4/6 that day reflected his superior standing over much the same horses he faces this time, and, unsurprisingly for a horse who's had half the racing of most nine-year-olds, there has been no sign of age catching up with him this season with three easy top-level wins from three starts.
Admittedly, this season's three wins do themselves need to be contextualised, as he's beaten nothing yet of the calibre he'll meet at Cheltenham, but the point is that, unlike in 2012, when he had just the one warm-up race amidst some doubts about his well-being, his preparation has gone smoothly, very smoothly, this time.
It's the nature of the racing game that interpretations fluctuate, individually and retrospectively, and, Hurricane Fly apart, there's been a certain amount of revisionism over the 2012 Champion Hurdle. Rock On Ruby, for example, whose win was, at the time, tinged with a touch of enterprise and opportunism, has suddenly become the unsung hero and reincarnation of Hardy Eustace, the back-to-back Champion Hurdler (2004/5) who was cut from the same uncompromising cloth, while everybody seems happy - and rightly so - to overlook Zarkandar's disappointment that day and accept that he's a different horse this different season. So why not Hurricane Fly?
The enthusiastic Hurricane Fly, who settles better in his races these days and therefore isn't beholden to tactics as he once was, has never worn blinkers, but his knockers seemingly do, not seeing the wood for the one, solitary tree planted on Champion Hurdle day last year.
Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar are solid, but solid has won fewer Champion Hurdles than a sharp turn of foot over the years, and Hurricane Fly has something else that, on his day, none of his rivals can match: a Timeform rating of 173, making him the best two-mile hurdler since the legendary Istabraq. It may come across as trite that I'm defending a horse who needs little or no defending - after all, he's clear favourite to take back his Champion Hurdle crown - but the purpose is merely to bring, or bring back, a bit of perspective to Hurricane Fly, bruised from a few cheap shots.
The short-lived production Sinatra At The London Palladium reportedly built to a crescendo of Come Fly With Me, which is what I'm asking of you with Hurricane. This is my official quote on the matter: 'Will Hurricane Fly win? He can't get beat.' Putting it that way gives me some room for contextomy manoeuvre after the event.
That's the Champion Hurdle spleen vented, but what about the other issues up for discussion on the first day of Cheltenham?
The Make-Or-Breaker
On the Tuesday it's a source of fun, on Wednesday it gets mildly annoying, by Thursday there's steam coming out of my ears, and on Friday I'm throwing stuff at the telly. We're talking the phoney-baloney "war", and reporting thereof, between bookies and punters. Bookies rep after bookies rep is wheeled out to tell us, the punters, whether we won that day or not, based on the horrific assumption that all punters back the same horse, always the favourites, and all bookies lay the same horses, always the favourites.
I can't wait for the boy Jiwani to inform that, despite having done £300 in cold blood on the first day according to my account, I'm actually on the winning team because four favourites went in.
There is, however, a make-or-break horse on day one who will, realistically, decide a punters vs. bookies battle, if not the war. It will certainly shape the whole meeting let alone day for me, as I'm going in and going in big on My Tent Or Yours. Odds of 2.89/5 might not sound juicy, but as far as I'm concerned he's a 2.8 chance to post a higher rating than the Champion Hurdle winner.
It's a straightforward case: you just don't get horses of My Tent Or Yours's proven ability running in novice hurdles. He's already bearing down on Golden Cygnet, winner of the 1978 Supreme, whose rating of 176 remains the highest for a novice hurdler in Timeform history, and to get in that bracket prior to the championship races of Cheltenham, as My Tent Or Yours has, is almost unheard of.
Make sure you back him, if only to shout 'Damn right, you're damn right I'm a winner, Jiwani' during the inevitable update at 13:37 on Tuesday.
Match of the Day
There's another war brewing here, and it's something of a class war. In the blue (and yellow) corner, representing the working classes, from the North, we have Overturn, for whom phrases of hearts on sleeves and old-boots toughness were designed. And in the red (with white and navy bits) corner, representing the South, we have Simonsig, the private jet of thoroughbreds.
My analytical head rules my proletariat, Hartlepool heart in this instance. Even the staunchest Overturn supporters can envisage Simonsig, full of running, looming upsides approaching two out. The closer to evens Simonsig gets, the more I'm likely to play up my Tent winnings. Toffs 1-0 Tradesmen. Punters 2-0 Bookies.
Tuesday's C.H.I.L.D. Must Be Replaced
Loving a second child as much as the first is a valid concern, or so I'm told, and that's the way I feel about Tuesday's second C.H.I.L.D. (Cheltenham Handicapper Imploring Large Down-payment) after my first, Attaglance, was withdrawn from the newly-named Rewards4Racing Handicap on account of the softening ground. In the same race, the child I now intend to sponsor heavily is The Druids Nephew, for whom the positive of his own form to some extent cancels out the negative of his stable form, The Druids Nephew its only winner of the season so far. So far...
The promise of his second at Ascot in November, where he split Hadrian's Approach and Rolling Star, was confirmed when he slammed Grandioso - successful twice and much improved subsequently - by 10 lengths at Wincanton. He ran above himself at the Cheltenham Festival last year when sixth in the Albert Bartlett, and The Druids Nephew will be, for one day only, my adopted child, before I abandon him for Attaglance when Aintree comes around.
Read Jamie's Previews of days Two, Three and Four.
Get Timeform data for Cheltenham for just £2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!
Monday, March 11, 2013
Jamie Lynch's Cheltenham Day One Preview: Context is king
Our Chief Correspondent looks at day one of the Festival, in which he thinks punters have been twisting the big-race favourite's words and getting too attached to working-class heroes.
'Energy, razzmatazz and technical wizardry' was the testimonial blazoned across the posters and billboards. Who wouldn't want to have seen Sinatra At The London Palladium, a video presentation of the late singer's greatest recordings, staged in 2006, on the back of such an ardent endorsement? Only it wasn't.
The Observer reviewer's complete line, from which the promotional extract was craftily taken, was in actual fact: 'I couldn't help feeling that, for all the energy, razzmatazz and technical wizardry, the audience had been shortchanged.' I'm not sure whether Accentuate The Positive was part of the Sinatra posthumous setlist.
Selective editing is the game and contextomy is its name, the dangerous art of quoting out of context, and it's rife, including in the highly-interpretive world of horse racing analysis. Besides painting a potentially misleading picture, 'quote mining' can also serve to contaminate subsequent interpretation of the original testament, and that's more or less the crux of it with Hurricane Fly, the horse around which the Champion Hurdle revolves.
The critics who are unconvinced by Hurricane Fly tend to pull out one excerpt in particular: he didn't win the race last year when expected to. The 2012 Champion Hurdle, as evidence, is case closed as far as the prosecution is concerned, concluding that why now if not then, especially as, at the age of nine, two years older than the average winner, he must be looking down the hill if not quite over it?
A persuasive enough argument, but based on an isolated incident, and last year's Champion Hurdle is out of context as well as out of character for Hurricane Fly.
His complete bio, from which the pejorative phrase was extracted and distortedly magnified, reads: Hurricane Fly, successful in 14 Grade 1 events including the 2011 Champion Hurdle, didn't win the race last year when expected to, but his odds of 4/6 that day reflected his superior standing over much the same horses he faces this time, and, unsurprisingly for a horse who's had half the racing of most nine-year-olds, there has been no sign of age catching up with him this season with three easy top-level wins from three starts.
Admittedly, this season's three wins do themselves need to be contextualised, as he's beaten nothing yet of the calibre he'll meet at Cheltenham, but the point is that, unlike in 2012, when he had just the one warm-up race amidst some doubts about his well-being, his preparation has gone smoothly, very smoothly, this time.
It's the nature of the racing game that interpretations fluctuate, individually and retrospectively, and, Hurricane Fly apart, there's been a certain amount of revisionism over the 2012 Champion Hurdle. Rock On Ruby, for example, whose win was, at the time, tinged with a touch of enterprise and opportunism, has suddenly become the unsung hero and reincarnation of Hardy Eustace, the back-to-back Champion Hurdler (2004/5) who was cut from the same uncompromising cloth, while everybody seems happy - and rightly so - to overlook Zarkandar's disappointment that day and accept that he's a different horse this different season. So why not Hurricane Fly?
The enthusiastic Hurricane Fly, who settles better in his races these days and therefore isn't beholden to tactics as he once was, has never worn blinkers, but his knockers seemingly do, not seeing the wood for the one, solitary tree planted on Champion Hurdle day last year.
Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar are solid, but solid has won fewer Champion Hurdles than a sharp turn of foot over the years, and Hurricane Fly has something else that, on his day, none of his rivals can match: a Timeform rating of 173, making him the best two-mile hurdler since the legendary Istabraq. It may come across as trite that I'm defending a horse who needs little or no defending - after all, he's clear favourite to take back his Champion Hurdle crown - but the purpose is merely to bring, or bring back, a bit of perspective to Hurricane Fly, bruised from a few cheap shots.
The short-lived production Sinatra At The London Palladium reportedly built to a crescendo of Come Fly With Me, which is what I'm asking of you with Hurricane. This is my official quote on the matter: 'Will Hurricane Fly win? He can't get beat.' Putting it that way gives me some room for contextomy manoeuvre after the event.
That's the Champion Hurdle spleen vented, but what about the other issues up for discussion on the first day of Cheltenham?
The Make-Or-Breaker
On the Tuesday it's a source of fun, on Wednesday it gets mildly annoying, by Thursday there's steam coming out of my ears, and on Friday I'm throwing stuff at the telly. We're talking the phoney-baloney "war", and reporting thereof, between bookies and punters. Bookies rep after bookies rep is wheeled out to tell us, the punters, whether we won that day or not, based on the horrific assumption that all punters back the same horse, always the favourites, and all bookies lay the same horses, always the favourites.
I can't wait for the boy Jiwani to inform that, despite having done £300 in cold blood on the first day according to my account, I'm actually on the winning team because four favourites went in.
There is, however, a make-or-break horse on day one who will, realistically, decide a punters vs. bookies battle, if not the war. It will certainly shape the whole meeting let alone day for me, as I'm going in and going in big on My Tent Or Yours. Odds of 2.89/5 might not sound juicy, but as far as I'm concerned he's a 2.8 chance to post a higher rating than the Champion Hurdle winner.
It's a straightforward case: you just don't get horses of My Tent Or Yours's proven ability running in novice hurdles. He's already bearing down on Golden Cygnet, winner of the 1978 Supreme, whose rating of 176 remains the highest for a novice hurdler in Timeform history, and to get in that bracket prior to the championship races of Cheltenham, as My Tent Or Yours has, is almost unheard of.
Make sure you back him, if only to shout 'Damn right, you're damn right I'm a winner, Jiwani' during the inevitable update at 13:37 on Tuesday.
Match of the Day
There's another war brewing here, and it's something of a class war. In the blue (and yellow) corner, representing the working classes, from the North, we have Overturn, for whom phrases of hearts on sleeves and old-boots toughness were designed. And in the red (with white and navy bits) corner, representing the South, we have Simonsig, the private jet of thoroughbreds.
My analytical head rules my proletariat, Hartlepool heart in this instance. Even the staunchest Overturn supporters can envisage Simonsig, full of running, looming upsides approaching two out. The closer to evens Simonsig gets, the more I'm likely to play up my Tent winnings. Toffs 1-0 Tradesmen. Punters 2-0 Bookies.
Tuesday's C.H.I.L.D. Has Pull In Chase
C.H.I.L.D. Cheltenham Handicapper Imploring Large Downpayment. Malcolm Jefferson is preparing his lightning as we speak, having struck twice at the 2012 Festival last year with two horses who are back for more this year. Most eyes are on Cape Tribulation, who's going for Gold, but the other one, Attaglance, is the likelier to hit the mark again, in the recently renamed Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap.
Having won the Martin Pipe off 139, then followed up at Aintree off 144, Attaglance gets in here with a mark of just 133, after a chasing campaign that smacks of saving up for Cheltenham. Pottering round in small-field novices, though jumping well, isn't what Attaglance is about, but taking that route has helped towards what's obviously a lenient mark compared to his hurdles form, and we could well see a different proposition in the last race on Tuesday.
Read Jamie's Previews of days Two, Three and Four.
Get Timeform data for Cheltenham for just £2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!
Jamie Lynch's Cheltenham Day Two Preview: Masterminding another Champion performance
Behind every great champion lies a well-run race, argues Jamie Lynch, as he tries to derive emotional, rather than financial, gain from this year's Champion Chase.
It happens infrequently, only five years in the last thirty to be exact, but every now and then the hare beats the tortoise on Timeform ratings, in that a two-mile chaser comes along who's so spectacular that it outranks the best in the staying division. Such speed-awareness horses are rarer still considering that those five supersonic years comprised just three chasers, as Badsworth Boy and Moscow Flyer did it in back-to-back seasons. Sprinter Sacre is about to become the fourth.
Achieving a huge rating, as Badsworth Boy (179) and Moscow Flyer (184) did, along with Master Minded whose mighty 179 would have won him the outright rather than divisional award in almost any other era but Kauto Star's, can be as much about opportunity as ability. George Best had World Cup-winning ability but never the opportunity because of his compatriots.
Likewise, to express their true talent, horses are sometimes at the mercy of comrades, but this specialist group - racing's adrenaline junkies - are reliant, above all, on pace, the faster the better. They feed on speed. That element has been the common denominator in each of the greatest displays in the Queen Mother Champion Chase over the last three decades.
The gallop was strong when, in 1983, Badsworth Boy won, by a distance, the first of three consecutive renewals, while by far the better of Moscow Flyer's two Champion Chase wins, in 2005 when he finished clear with Well Chief of Azertyuiop, came courtesy of two outsiders following the Will.I.Am edict of going hard or going home.
It was the same scenario, only more pronounced, for Master Minded's show-stopper in 2008. A two-mile, undulating track incorporating 13 stiff, five-foot fences might not sound the ideal environment for an attempted land-speed record, but that's what Tamarinbleu and Schindlers Hunt did, and it proved the catalyst for one of the most memorable, as well as one of the highest-rated, performances in the history of the race, Master Minded storming away by 19 lengths.
With that in mind, Nicky Henderson might as well go halves with Tom George on the £17,500 it cost to supplement Mail de Bievre for the Champion Chase, because his presence significantly increases the possibility of something out of this world from Sprinter Sacre. He has it in him, and the game is on, in a big way.
Racing needs gambling and vice versa, but periodically, albeit fewer and further between than a two-miler who can outperform a Gold Cup winner, a thoroughbred emerges who uproots the whole sport from its entrenched betting foundations, so that the privilege comes in watching the horse rather than backing it, in the style of Frankel and Black Caviar. Sprinter Sacre is in the play-offs for that promotion, and a wingman like Mail de Bievre may give him a decisive leg-up.
Is it better to be a wingman or a middleman? It sounds scurrilous to describe an Arkle and Champion Chase winner as a middleman, but that's what Sizing Europe might be reduced to by Sprinter Sacre, though he's the perfect link in the kingmaker chain.
Visualise the composition. First the wingman, or wingmen if Sanctuaire reverts to type, provide the ideal platform by setting a searching gallop, before the all-important second stage, involving Sizing Europe. In his unbeaten time as a chaser, Sprinter Sacre has never played with a horse who can carry him deep enough into a race as Sizing Europe will. Then we'll see just how phenomenal Sprinter Sacre is.
His current Timeform rating is 183p. He still has a little way to go to qualify for dressage, which is seemingly 191, the peak rating in Kauto Star's preliminary career as a racehorse, but, for Wednesday, the stage is set, the bit-part players are well-rehearsed, and we the audience are ready in anticipation of a seen-to-be-believed performance. Sprinter Sacre won't fluff his lines.
With odds of 1.282/7 and a sense of formality, the Champion Chase won't make us rich, but it may just leave us open mouthed in a way that Badsworth Boy did, that Moscow Flyer did, and that Master Minded did, the way that only crack two-mile chasers can. The blueprint has been mapped out for Sprinter Sacre to take his place in history, and for Mail de Bievre, Sanctuaire and Sizing Europe to be listed in the contributors.
While the Champion Chase looks a race to savour first and bet in second if at all, the rest of the Wednesday Cheltenham card comprises races to bet in first and top up second, so let's look at a few:
The Make-Or-Breaker
This is personal rather than widespread make-or-breaker, but my biggest ante-post bet comes in the second race. Almost by the hour, the confidence levels from wager day to present day have diminished, firstly by the gradual revelation that Pont Alexandre is the second coming and then, more devastatingly, by the news that Dr Christian and his medical team have decamped to Grange Hill Farm hot on the trail of an equine scuppering bug.
Sinatra permeated the Tuesday preview, and Mack is back in town for an explanatory singalong wittily entitled 'New One, New One'. (Let's forget about the word 'The' for now...)
Stop spreading the germs, I'm too late to lay
I want to see a big profit - New One, New One.
My savings bond dues, are going astray,
Right through the very arse of it, Neptune, Neptune.
I wanna wake up on the Thursday, and not to weep
But to find I'm King of Cheltenham, cash in a heap.
And if I can make it there, I'll stroke Sam's ginger hair,
It's up to you - New One, New One.
Despite various shepherds and wise men with gifts gathering at a certain stable in Co. Carlow to proclaim the arrival of Pont Alexandre, and despite various vets and microbiologists in containment suits gathering at a certain stable in Naunton, I'm still a believer in The New One. I have to be.
Amid the panic (sorry, my panic), let's not forget that The New One beat My Tent Or Yours in the Graded bumper at Aintree and that he could and probably should be undefeated over hurdles, but for Sam Twiston-Davies pressing on marginally too soon on testing ground at Cheltenham last time.
Pont Alexandre looks a top horse, and he is one by the sounds of it, but he'll have to be to see off the classy and hardened The New One.
Wednesday's C.H.I.L.D. Is Ex-Sheikh Mo
If The New One does shake off the twin troubles of the lurgi and the next Denman, then I promise to donate a portion of my winnings to Greatwood, a fantastic charity that provides fullilling futures for former racehorses. Equally productive, but less reliant upon benefaction, is a similar set-up by the name of Bloomfields, which gives regally-bred Flat horses a second chance as jumpers, and, under the management of John Ferguson, it's proving a huge success.
Bloomfields is the source of Wednesday's C.H.I.L.D. (Cheltenham Handicapper Imploring Large Down-payment), as Bordoni looks the ideal type, and favorably treated, for the Fred Winter. Impeccably bred, by Bernardini and from the family of Allez France, Bordoni went the right way in his only season on the Flat and has taken well to hurdling... apart from that time he ran out when set to hack up at Ludlow. But he put that behind him when making short work of subsequent-winner Somemothersdohavem at Market Rasen, when looking for all the world as if the demands of a well-run race on a stiff track like Cheltenham will be the making of him, as supported by the fact he won at as far as two miles on the Flat.
Career-changer Bordoni was bred for Epsom rather than Cheltenham, but better Cheltenham than Greatwood, or dressage for that matter.
Read Jamie's Previews of days One, Three and Four.
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Sunday, March 10, 2013
Jamie Lynch's Cheltenham Day Three Preview: Staying ain't what it used to be
"What's especially pertinent about flagging up the discrepant demands of the old and new ahead of this year's World Hurdle is that stamina is the pivotal issue regards the pivotal player."
The World Hurdle mightn't be a wholly accurate name for the day-three feature, but it's arguably better than one that gives unwarranted heart to plodders, argues Jamie Lynch as he tries to make a case for third-time-lucky over three miles of the New Course.
There's a school of thought that the World Series, the annual Baseball championship that's global in name but exclusively North American in practice, gets its title not from any mild pomposity but from the newspaper that first sponsored it, the New York World.
It's a blow to those who snipe and say that only in America could there be such blind arrogance as to take a sporting contest that's so conspicuously municipal, never leaving its shores, and label it as a 'World' event. On an unrelated matter, the big race of the day at Cheltenham is the World Hurdle, though only since 2005 has it had such a grandiose title.
A name change sometimes does more harm than good. In the 'nineties, when Kellogg's dared to mess with Coco Pops, in the scandalous misbelief that what we actually wanted was Choco Krispies, so fierce was the public backlash that within a year, tail firmly between legs, order had been restored. In the racing industry, where renaming of races is epidemic, even at the major festivals, there was little more than the shrugging of shoulders and rolling of eyes when it was announced in 2005 that, as part of a new sponsorship deal, the Stayers' Hurdle, which did exactly what it said on the tin since 1972, would henceforth be the World Hurdle. More shiny, less relevant.
However, there's evidence to suggest the race was in fact overdue a name change and that the 'Stayers' tag was something of a misnomer, at least compared to the original design. Prior to 1993, the race was run on the Old Course over a distance of three miles and a furlong. The last winner under those conditions, in what is widely considered to be one of the strongest ever renewals, was Nomadic Way, who clocked a time of 6:33.93, on good ground.
Since its switch to later in the week on the New Course, the average winning time in the Stayers' Hurdle, using the 14 of the 19 runnings when the going was good, is 5:47.23. That's significantly less staying to be done, equivalent to over three furlongs.
Wholesale remeasurements undertaken by Cheltenham after the 1999 Festival did see an official reduction in the Stayers' Hurdle distance by half a furlong to a flat three miles, but there's more to it than that, and it seems that 'declinism' - the idea that things ain't what they used to be - applies to championship races at Cheltenham and not just to meat, Arsenal and Quality Street - both the tin and the sweets.
What's especially pertinent about flagging up the discrepant demands of the old and new ahead of this year's World Hurdle is that stamina is the pivotal issue regards the pivotal player. The universal acceptance that Oscar Whisky is the best horse in the World Hurdle is qualified by his doubted staying power, but, as highlighted, staying isn't necessarily the name of the game, or the race, anymore.
It can't, though, be brushed under the carpet that Oscar Whisky is working on the premise of if at first - or second - you don't succeed, try, try again, because he's already had two tries over the World Hurdle course and distance, but with mitigation both times. In last year's World Hurdle, he paid a heavy price for trying to match the unmatchable Big Buck's from a fair way out, and then in this season's Cleeve Hurdle, the major trial, Oscar Whisky was much more convincing, beaten only a neck by Reve de Sivola when the ground was heavy and the ride was more exploratory than excavatory.
If we were in the 1980s, the halcyon days of unprocessed meat, a reliable Arsenal, quality Quality Street and a stamina-sapping Stayers' Hurdle, then Oscar Whisky wouldn't have a prayer against the relentless Reve de Sivola, but we're in the age of fast food, fast connections and faster times in the 'staying' championship, and Oscar Whisky can make his class count.
Every Which RSA But Jewson
Dynaste is only one letter away from Dynasty, a soap opera that specialised in cliffhangers and regularly held its followers in suspense. When I attended the David Pipe media day two weeks ago, I thought he was just playing the game when he suggested that he didn't know whether Dynaste would run in the RSA or the Jewson, but it turns out he wasn't, and still doesn't, looking at the Betfair markets for both races.
If the ghost of Grands Crus still hasn't been exorcised by next week and Dynaste swerves the RSA for the first race on Thursday then it's a win-lose situation for me: Dynaste wins and my ante-post bet on Aupcharlie loses. It's as simple as that.
The Make-Or-Breaker
While the Dynaste missile is yet to receive exact coordinates, the Ballynagour bomb looks to be locked onto the Byrne Group Plate. The fifth race on the third day is deep enough into the Festival for Ballynagour to be a "sod it" bet, or a "(worse word than sod) it" bet, by which I mean some people will just go 'all in' with what's left of their Cheltenham bank, myself possibly included. In that eventuality, we'll all be sitting tight, including Tom Scu hopefully.
Thursday's C.H.I.L.D. Is Old And Slow
Old, slow and exposed aren't usually the qualities you look for in a handicapper for Cheltenham, but the Pertemps Final is different, and Junior fits the bill very nicely. Six of the last 14 Pertemps winners have been aged nine or older, while three have been returning to hurdling after a spell chasing, and Junior qualifies on both counts. Previous Festival form also seems an advantage, and Junior scores highly in that regard, having won the Kim Muir in 2011 and finished third in the Coral Cup three years earlier.
Two runs since a winning reappearance this season have been in races he literally had no chance, but safeguarding his handicap mark for hurdles, and the ironically-named Junior might just show the youngsters a thing or two in a race the Pipes have won three times, including twice with the old, slow and exposed Buena Vista.
Read Jamie's Previews of days One, Two and Four.
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Friday, March 8, 2013
Jamie Lynch's Cheltenham Day Four Preview: A cheeky word of motivation
In Jamie Lynch's preview of the final day of Cheltenham, the focus is on focus, and whether a leading Gold Cup contender can take inspiration and motivation from a sporting Knight of the Realm.
'I had no motivation to do anything.' It's not uncommon for athletes to lose their mojo, but it is for them to recapture and multiply it in the way Sir Bradley Wiggins has. It was after the 2004 Olympics in Athens, where he won a gold, silver and bronze, that his get up and go got up and went, by his own admission: 'I had lost a big thing in my life. Something that had driven me for so long was gone...I'd lived so religiously in the run-up to Athens.'
Lulls are both relative and indefinite, but Wiggins' dip was low and long, until a new-found focus put him on a road to stardom for which the stop-offs included Beijing for more golds in 2008, the Champs-Elysees, London 2012 and, ultimately, Buckingham Palace. Something propelled him. Perhaps it was those sideburns.
Sideburns of a slightly different kind are the pinned-on hopes of propulsion for Long Run in the Gold Cup. Any parallels go only so far, of course, because Long Run is more like Wiggins' bike in the sense that he feels no pressure nor expectation, while Sam Waley-Cohen, by popular consent, isn't in the same league as Wiggins as a rider. No animal behaviourist has proved or disproved that horses have emotions, but they do, like humans, have identifiable and changeable characteristics, including motivation, and, to a lesser extent, albeit for some time now, Long Run has seemed to be suffering the same malaise Wiggins did of an extinguished fire in the belly.
It's almost recognition of his lassitude that connections are now reaching for the sideburns, or cheekpieces as they are, equipment designed to (re)stimulate and (re)focus the horse. Whether they'll work is the £313,225 question, but first-time headgear did the trick of reinvigorating See More Business in the 1999 Gold Cup. What are the chances of cheekpieces sparking Long Run into 'doing a Wiggins' and taking off again?
This is the point at which, as the final piece of the puzzle, having crunched the numbers, I tell you that, statistically speaking, cheekpieces impact positively upon performance. Only they don't, no more than by chance, anyway. In fact, analysing all 983 cases in Britain and Ireland of jumpers wearing first-time cheekpieces in 2012, wins (77) were fewer than random probability and, measuring by Timeform ratings where available, the sideburned horses collectively performed slightly below expectation (by 3.7 lb), even allowing for them starting at longer-than-average prices.
However, in a lot of those cases, also in part explaining the higher SP anomaly, the horses were put in cheekpieces as a last ability-finding resort, looking for something uncertain to be there, and often not there, but we know it's there with Long Run. That's exactly why, for him more than many, this experiment might just work: the cheekpieces are digging for gold where gold has been won before.
Even in winning at Kempton in December, on heavy ground, Long Run looked slow, but there's a faster horse in there somewhere, the one who, as a zealous six-year-old, had the King George and Gold Cup in the bag a long way out, the latter in the course record time.
Think of the Long Run/cheekpieces relationship the other way round, at the needs of cheekpieces rather than Long Run. For cheekpieces to best do their duty of giving a horse that missing edge, they need something to tap into, either a higher past rating or, better still, some lost speed, and in that respect Long Run is the perfect prototype.
Of the main rivals, Sir des Champs is himself a candidate for headgear one day, though for now he has a proven motivational tool to help, namely Cheltenham, having won at the previous two Festivals, while neither Bobs Worth nor Silviniaco Conti are in need of any trigger, too young and too hungry for all that, though in form terms both still have to look up to see where Long Run used to be.
Used to be is the operative phrase, and the cheekpieces may prove academic if, as is totally reasonable, such is nature's way, age has caught up and Long Run has slowed down, but there's a chance - just a chance - that he's been pulling the wool over our eyes, to be exposed by the wool on the sides of his face.
The races subsequent to the Gold Cup inevitably have an air of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' about them, though sometimes it can be worth waiting around, like after the show at which Coventry's former Lord Mayor got drunk and, while wearing the ceremonial gold chains, told various women what he'd enjoy doing to them...
REMATCH OF THE DAY
It's billed as the amateurs' Gold Cup, but there was nothing amateurish about Colm Sweeney and Jack Barber in the Foxhunter, who produced rides that Walsh and Geraghty would be proud. There was only a length between Salsify and Chapoturgeon at the line, and the rematch is on, the sequel as much about the jockeys again, as the horses are exactly the same this year as last judged on their recent wins.
Are there any lessons to be learned from twelve months ago? Yes, because I backed Chapoturgeon, and I know for a fact that if he couldn't beat Salisify then under the ballsiest of ballsy rides by Barber, he won't do now. Sweeney God to beat the demon Barber.
FRIDAY'S C.H.I.L.D. KEEPS COMING AND WINNING
Drumshambo 2, Anay Turge 1, Bendant 1, Rouge Et Blanc 2, Jumps Road 2, The Chazer 1, Kapga de Cerisy 2, Eastlake 1. Those are the names and number of subsequent wins of the horses who Rody has faced in just three starts this season. Strong form to say the least, suggesting that Nicky Henderson won't have it all his own way in the Grand Annual.
OUR CONOR
Not a reference to the Triumph (won by Rolling Star), but an homage to and attempted impression of Conor Murphy, the punters' hero. So here goes with my accumulated Festival Five who'll alow me to likewise relocate to America and set up as a trainer:
My Tent Or Yours, Supreme
The New One, Neptune
Bordoni, Fred Winter
Oscar Whisky, World Hurdle
Salsify, Foxhunter
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Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Jamie Lynch's Cheltenham Day One Preview: Context is king
Our Chief Correspondent looks at day one of the Festival, in which he thinks punters have been twisting the big-race favourite's words and getting too attached to working-class heroes.
'Energy, razzmatazz and technical wizardry' was the testimonial blazoned across the posters and billboards. Who wouldn't want to have seen Sinatra At The London Palladium, a video presentation of the late singer's greatest recordings, staged in 2006, on the back of such an ardent endorsement? Only it wasn't.
The Observer reviewer's complete line, from which the promotional extract was craftily taken, was in actual fact: 'I couldn't help feeling that, for all the energy, razzmatazz and technical wizardry, the audience had been shortchanged.' I'm not sure whether Accentuate The Positive was part of the Sinatra posthumous setlist.
Selective editing is the game and contextomy is its name, the dangerous art of quoting out of context, and it's rife, including in the highly-interpretive world of horse racing analysis. Besides painting a potentially misleading picture, 'quote mining' can also serve to contaminate subsequent interpretation of the original testament, and that's more or less the crux of it with Hurricane Fly, the horse around which the Champion Hurdle revolves.
The critics who are unconvinced by Hurricane Fly tend to pull out one excerpt in particular: he didn't win the race last year when expected to. The 2012 Champion Hurdle, as evidence, is case closed as far as the prosecution is concerned, concluding that why now if not then, especially as, at the age of nine, two years older than the average winner, he must be looking down the hill if not quite over it?
A persuasive enough argument, but based on an isolated incident, and last year's Champion Hurdle is out of context as well as out of character for Hurricane Fly.
His complete bio, from which the pejorative phrase was extracted and distortedly magnified, reads: Hurricane Fly, successful in 14 Grade 1 events including the 2011 Champion Hurdle, didn't win the race last year when expected to, but his odds of 4/6 that day reflected his superior standing over much the same horses he faces this time, and, unsurprisingly for a horse who's had half the racing of most nine-year-olds, there has been no sign of age catching up with him this season with three easy top-level wins from three starts.
Admittedly, this season's three wins do themselves need to be contextualised, as he's beaten nothing yet of the calibre he'll meet at Cheltenham, but the point is that, unlike in 2012, when he had just the one warm-up race amidst some doubts about his well-being, his preparation has gone smoothly, very smoothly, this time.
It's the nature of the racing game that interpretations fluctuate, individually and retrospectively, and, Hurricane Fly apart, there's been a certain amount of revisionism over the 2012 Champion Hurdle. Rock On Ruby, for example, whose win was, at the time, tinged with a touch of enterprise and opportunism, has suddenly become the unsung hero and reincarnation of Hardy Eustace, the back-to-back Champion Hurdler (2004/5) who was cut from the same uncompromising cloth, while everybody seems happy - and rightly so - to overlook Zarkandar's disappointment that day and accept that he's a different horse this different season. So why not Hurricane Fly?
The enthusiastic Hurricane Fly, who settles better in his races these days and therefore isn't beholden to tactics as he once was, has never worn blinkers, but his knockers seemingly do, not seeing the wood for the one, solitary tree planted on Champion Hurdle day last year.
Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar are solid, but solid has won fewer Champion Hurdles than a sharp turn of foot over the years, and Hurricane Fly has something else that, on his day, none of his rivals can match: a Timeform rating of 173, making him the best two-mile hurdler since the legendary Istabraq. It may come across as trite that I'm defending a horse who needs little or no defending - after all, he's clear favourite to take back his Champion Hurdle crown - but the purpose is merely to bring, or bring back, a bit of perspective to Hurricane Fly, bruised from a few cheap shots.
The short-lived production Sinatra At The London Palladium reportedly built to a crescendo of Come Fly With Me, which is what I'm asking of you with Hurricane. This is my official quote on the matter: 'Will Hurricane Fly win? He can't get beat.' Putting it that way gives me some room for contextomy manoeuvre after the event.
That's the Champion Hurdle spleen vented, but what about the other issues up for discussion on the first day of Cheltenham?
The Make-Or-Breaker
On the Tuesday it's a source of fun, on Wednesday it gets mildly annoying, by Thursday there's steam coming out of my ears, and on Friday I'm throwing stuff at the telly. We're talking the phoney-baloney "war", and reporting thereof, between bookies and punters. Bookies rep after bookies rep is wheeled out to tell us, the punters, whether we won that day or not, based on the horrific assumption that all punters back the same horse, always the favourites, and all bookies lay the same horses, always the favourites.
I can't wait for the boy Jiwani to inform that, despite having done £300 in cold blood on the first day according to my account, I'm actually on the winning team because four favourites went in.
There is, however, a make-or-break horse on day one who will, realistically, decide a punters vs. bookies battle, if not the war. It will certainly shape the whole meeting let alone day for me, as I'm going in and going in big on My Tent Or Yours. Odds of 2.89/5 might not sound juicy, but as far as I'm concerned he's a 2.8 chance to post a higher rating than the Champion Hurdle winner.
It's a straightforward case: you just don't get horses of My Tent Or Yours's proven ability running in novice hurdles. He's already bearing down on Golden Cygnet, winner of the 1978 Supreme, whose rating of 176 remains the highest for a novice hurdler in Timeform history, and to get in that bracket prior to the championship races of Cheltenham, as My Tent Or Yours has, is almost unheard of.
Make sure you back him, if only to shout 'Damn right, you're damn right I'm a winner, Jiwani' during the inevitable update at 13:37 on Tuesday.
There's another war brewing here, and it's something of a class war. In the blue (and yellow) corner, representing the working classes, from the North, we have Overturn, for whom phrases of hearts on sleeves and old-boots toughness were designed. And in the red (with white and navy bits) corner, representing the South, we have Simonsig, the private jet of thoroughbreds.
My analytical head rules my proletariat, Hartlepool heart in this instance. Even the staunchest Overturn supporters can envisage Simonsig, full of running, looming upsides approaching two out. The closer to evens Simonsig gets, the more I'm likely to play up my Tent winnings. Toffs 1-0 Tradesmen. Punters 2-0 Bookies.
Tuesday's C.H.I.L.D. Has Pull In Chase
C.H.I.L.D. Cheltenham Handicapper Imploring Large Downpayment. Malcolm Jefferson is preparing his lightning as we speak, having struck twice at the 2012 Festival last year with two horses who are back for more this year. Most eyes are on Cape Tribulation, who's going for Gold, but the other one, Attaglance, is the likelier to hit the mark again, in the recently renamed Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap.
Having won the Martin Pipe off 139, then followed up at Aintree off 144, Attaglance gets in here with a mark of just 133, after a chasing campaign that smacks of saving up for Cheltenham. Pottering round in small-field novices, though jumping well, isn't what Attaglance is about, but taking that route has helped towards what's obviously a lenient mark compared to his hurdles form, and we could well see a different proposition in the last race on Tuesday.
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Friday, September 14, 2012
Portland Handicap Preview: Rex to turn up the heat on Town Moor
If you forgive Rex Imperator's most unlucky run at York, forget his poor showing at Bath and remember his Windsor demolition job, you may just be rewarded handsomely...
Timeform's Matt Gardner looks ahead to the final day of Doncaster's St Leger meeting, encompassing both the main event itself and the Portland Handicap...
Without wanting to give the St Leger, and Camelot's Triple Crown bid, short shrift, there is very little point in discussing that event as Camelot will win. He will become the first horse to land the Triple Crown since Nijinsky in 1970 and, in all probability, will do it in equally taking style to all of his previous triumphs.
As Gordon Ramsay would say: "St Leger, DONE". Whilst on the topic of food programmes, a show that comes highly recommended is Man vs. Food, a programme where the sole premise is to challenge one blokes' capacity to devour immense portions, to stomach blazing spices and to live to tell the tale.
My personal favourite episode takes place in Portland (conveniently) where the presenter is faced with the "Great Balls of Fire Challenge". He has to consume a quintet of fritters packed with incredibly hot chilli peppers and an equally fiery salsa in a set amount of time, which appears to be no easy feat.
The rapidity with which the field for the 2012 renewal of the Portland Handicap will complete the five and a half furlong distance (average race time of 1:07:27 over the last five years) most likely compares closely to the bowel movements of Adam Richman following his encounter in Portland.
Which horse can get the run on the runs and cross the line first? It's a tricky puzzle to solve, and the best place to start is most likely with Prodigality, who is yet to finish outside of the first two in 2012. His five starts have yielded just the one win, but he was only just denied by a nose at York and his second-placed effort at Ripon can effectively be read as a win, miles clear of those that raced on his side of the track and finding only El Viento, who raced down the far side, a short-head too good.
He was allowed to race off the same mark on his subsequent start at Ffos Las and, whilst that effort may appear to have been a stall in his development, in all probability the softer ground simply blunted his speed and he cannot be written off on the back of that. However, he has been raised 4 lb by the handicapper for his troubles, and whilst that might not be enough to prevent another bold showing, it may just mean that he is destined to be the bridesmaid once more.
A race that has produced two interesting contenders for the Portland took place at Sandown on the first day of September. A competitive sprint handicap went the way of Edge Closer who, after a short break, proved that the majority of his old ability is still there with a two and a quarter length defeat of Face the Problem. The suspicion is, however, that he enjoyed the run of the race that day, travelling strongly in touch of a quick pace on the favoured far-side rail, and that the 8 lb hike in the weights will be enough to stop him going in once more.
The fourth-placed horse in the aforementioned contest was Ajjaadd, and he shaped very well from a poor draw in the middle of the track, showing good speed to race prominently before fading late on, doing much the best of those that forced the pace. The six-year-old looks sure to make a bold bid here and is very tempting to put forward as the selection, but there is one towards the head of the weights that makes even greater appeal.
Rex Imperator is his name, and he has an excellent chance of adding a third win to his CV. The three-year-old is currently my second favourite horse in training after Piscean (don't ask why I like that one so much, I'm not entirely sure myself), and his recent defeats at York and Bath are certainly not reasons to discount him from your calculations.
The Roger Charlton-trained gelding enjoyed no run whatsoever on the Knavesmire, badly hampered after halfway and taken back to the rear of the field, not being knocked about once his chance had gone and finishing with plenty of running left. His next outing at Bath was, on the ratings, the worst run of his career, but given that his best form has come on good to firm ground his flop on a soft surface didn't really come as a surprise.
Forgive and forget, that is the motto of this piece, and if you forgive Rex Imperator's most unlucky run at York, forget his poor showing at Bath and remember his Windsor demolition job, you may just be rewarded handsomely.
Others likely to garner support are Kaldoun Kingdom and Mass Rally. The first mentioned is certainly of interest from his BHA mark of 93, the lowest it has been for almost three years, and it was encouraging that he produced the best effort of his season last time out at York, despite the five and a half furlong trip looking barely adequate, as he stayed on to finish fifth. A similar scenario is likely to unfold here however, but it will be of note once he is returned to six furlongs.
Mass Rally is not the most resolute of characters, his tendency to find little for pressure something of a concern, but he found more than is usually the case when finishing three places ahead of Kaldoun Kingdom on his most recent start. He will still be on the bridle a furlong out but is difficult to win with in general and is not one for maximum faith.
The Portland Handicap will be over and done with in a flash, certainly much faster than Richman can complete many of his Man vs. Food challenges. Ajjaad makes plenty of appeal following an eyecatching outing at Sandown but the one that gets the vote is Rex Imperator who, if at his scorching best as when easily scoring at Windsor, could prove far too tough a proposition for his opponents to stomach.
Recommendation
Back Rex Imperator @ 11.010/1 in the Portland Handicap
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Monday, September 3, 2012
US Racing Preview: Shanghai Hopeful of success at Saratoga
Shanghai Bobby could show quite a bit of improvement on his 112p rating now that he steps up from a pair of good wins at around five furlongs...
Simon Rowlands looks ahead to Monday's racing in the US...
In much the same way that there is no "I" in "team", but both "I" and "me" in Timeform, there is no "u" (pronounced "you") in Labor Day in the US but there is in Labour Day in Canada. Make of that what you will.
Labor Day, or Labour Day, falls on the first Monday in September and means that punters and punsters alike have plenty of good racing to go at in North America on the first day of the week for a change.
Just about the most prestigious race of all is the G2 Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga (due off at 16:52 local time, 21:52 BST). With $300k in purse money, this seven-furlong race should go some way to clarifying the pecking order among the top juvenile males. The race was won by Currency Swap in 2011, a colt who is not far off the best sprinters/milers 12 months on.
Bern Identity was top Timeform juvenile in North America for a while, but his win in the Sanford Stakes here in July was workmanlike rather than better, and the runner-up that day, Handsome Jack, had been given a slightly bigger beating by Shanghai Bobby previously.
Shanghai Bobby is a son of Harlan's Holiday, who was high-class at nine and ten furlongs, and he could show quite a bit of improvement on his 112p rating now that he steps up from a pair of good wins at around five furlongs.
With a number of unknowns in opposition, not least his stable-companions Lawn Man and Overanalyze, support for Shanghai Bobby cannot be with maximum confidence. But he sets a good standard, with the likelihood of more to come, and looks the one to beat.
Del Mar stages the other G2 on Labor Day, the Yellow Ribbon Handicap for fillies and mares over eight and a half furlongs on turf (post time 18:00 locally, 02:00 on Tuesday BST).
The race is something of a rerun of the G2 John C Mabee Stakes at course and distance in August. City To City got up on the line that day to deny All Star Heart, and the pair oppose on the same terms while dominating the Morning Line along with the lightly-raced Byrony.
However, it would be folly to overlook the Mabee third, Go Forth North, who lines up 3 lb better off for one and a half lengths and has plenty of form in the book which suggests she can go close at a bigger price. She made the running that day but has performed well from off the pace, too.
Go Forth North does not win often, it has to be said, but her consistency could well see her hit the board again and a "show" bet (to finish in first three) on the Tote is recommended.
Parx racetrack near Philadelphia stages some fine racing, not least the $350k G3 Smarty Jones (16:40 local time, 21:40 BST) over an extended mile on dirt. Dwyer Stakes winner Teeth of The Dog deserves to be popular under ideal conditions, despite conceding weight to the majority of his rivals, and the main question is whether he will be a value price. Anything over 3.0 would make appeal.
The Labour Day meet at Woodbine in Canada features a couple of $200k races for two-year-olds, but a better proposition for punters may be the $125k Algoma Stakes (due off at 13:57 locally, 18:57 BST). Awesome Fire is the Morning Line favo(u)rite but drops in distance back on a synthetic surface and looks to have plenty on her hands with Tee Game, Casa Loma and possibly It's Gail.
Additionally, Awesome Fire's come-from-behind style is helped by a strong pace up front, which is by no means certain to unfold here. She is worth laying if at 4.0 or shorter on Betfair.
Recommendations
1 pt win Shanghai Bobby
1 pt show (Tote) Go Forth North
1 pt win Teeth of The Dog
lay to lose 2 pts Awesome Fire
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