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Paul Nicholls: Reflections on a season of ups and downs

"Considering we have not had the best of luck this season with injuries to some big names, to have won races such as the Charlie Hall, the Betfair Chase, the Paddy Power, the Lexus and the Aintree Hurdle is not too bad going."

With the National Hunt season drawing to a close, Paul takes time to reflect on a campaign that has been challenging for Ditcheat in many respects but has, in fact, been better than many people might have imagined

It did make me smile when someone mentioned to me the other day that we have had a 'disappointing' season. 

Because I don't think that we have had any such thing. In fact, with 130 winners on the board and over £2.3m in prize money, I think we have had a bloody good season.

Considering we have not had the best of luck this season with injuries to some big names - more of that later - to have won races such as the Charlie Hall, the Betfair Chase, the Paddy Power, the Lexus and the Aintree Hurdle is not too bad going.

Of course, I would have loved to have won the trainers' championship again. It was a honour to win it once, let alone seven times. But a trainer's job, first and foremost, is to win races and prize money for his owners and I think we have a done pretty good job on that front this season.

I didn't have the Seaborough horses this season - a lot of big yards have these satellite yards - and the 18 winners that we sent out from there in the last campaign. So 130-odd winners really pleased me, considering we had 138 in 2011-12.

Don't forget that we had three winners from five runners in Ireland, too, to net over £180,000 in prize money. And Tidal Bay provided one of the real highlights of the season when we coaxed him back to form, and probably a career-best, at the age of 12, culminating in a thrilling victory in the Lexus.

We clearly failed to reproduce the success we have had at previous Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals, and Nicky is now in the situation where I was five or so years ago in terms of having a lot of the best talent for the big races, as well as real depth. But racing is like that, it is cyclical. And if I have anything to do with it, the wheel of fortune will rotate back to us.

Luck

It's fair to say that luck is one thing we haven't particularly had a lot of this season.

To lose Big Buck's and Al Ferof, two of the stable stars, on one December morning was a pretty crushing blow at the time, while losing other good horses, including Cristal Bonus, was very sad. Throw in the likes of Silviniaco Conti's fall in the Gold Cup and Tidal Bay's injury before the National and there was a theme of bad luck and what-might-have-been throughout the campaign.

But if we were in any danger of feeling sorry for ourselves, we were soon dragged into the real world with the crushing news of Dominic Baker's death in a car crash. We are one big family here at Ditcheat, and when Clifford lost his son, we all felt it too.

That was loss in the most starkest and darkest sense. It certainly put all the nonsense that surrounded Kauto Star's leaving the stable into perspective, too. 

Just as with Nicky and Sprinter Sacre, Kauto was probably the greatest horse I am likely to ever train and it was very sad to see him go in the manner he did and the resulting publicity. But it was a privilege to have him here for over nine years, and great to see him doing so well in his new career.

Looking ahead

So what does the future hold?

Well, if it is the start of a new era horse-wise - though we are not short of top class talent with Big Buck's, Al Ferof, Silviniaco Conti, Tidal Bay, Zarkandar and the like, as well as a lot of promising young horses  - it certainly is staff-wise. 

We combined an end-of-season staff party with Dan's leaving-do here on Monday night, and I am sure he will go on to prove himself in his own right just as much as Harry did this season. 

If he does fail as a trainer, then he looks to have a good stallion career in front of him at least, as he and Gracie are expecting their first child. Good luck trying to juggle a newborn and a new training career, Dan! 

He was not only one of my two right hand men here along with Clifford, he is also a great friend, too. So he will be a great loss in every respect.

But, as horses move on, so do staff. And I am sure my new assistant Tom Jonason, who has been here for three years and who has been shadowing Dan for the past six months, will step up to the plate. And David Prichard will take over Tom's role as pupil assistant.

The season finishes at Sandown on Saturday - I may not be collecting the trainers' title but Megan is receiving her award as the leading 148cm Pony Race Champion for last season - but the new challenge for us starts the very next day with plenty to run over the summer. They have been waiting nine months for their ground, so it makes sense for them to go out and enjoy it at last.

Let's hope that next season goes more smoothly than this one.  

Whatever fate throws at us, rest assured that we will be as determined and focused as ever. The best always bounce back, as Sir Alex and Man Utd have shown again this season, and I would like to think that myself and Team Ditcheat have that kind of winning mentality and strong work ethic. 

And as Alex has always said to me, you are only as good as your squad. So the pressure is on me to go out and find the next Robin van Persie, surely the signing, and the player, of the season! 

I have already bought what I think will be significant additions to the squad, and I'll name just five here: Vicente, On Blueberry Hill, Black River, Vesperal Dream, and Caesar Milan. And there will be plenty of more coming and goings in the summer.

But win, lose or draw, we will always give of our best. We owe it to the past, and the memory of Dominic, to make the best of whatever the future holds. It will be tough, but life invariably is.

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Road to the Kentucky Derby: The Churchill Downs dozen

World Racing / Timeform / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Who will you side with on May 5?

"Union Rags has been an impressive winner of 4 of 5 starts, beating News Pending by easy 4 lengths in G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February..."

Timeform bring you their latest update on the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5...

UNION RAGS Timeform Rating 124p, Trainer M Matz
Impressive winner of 4 of 5 starts, beating News Pending by easy 4 lengths in G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February, and is the top-rated 3-y-o male in North America. Wide throughout and probably unlucky in only defeat, at Breeders' Cup. Sprinting/miling pedigree but already stays 8.5f. May next run in 9f Florida Derby back at Gulfstream on March 31.

HANSEN Timeform Rating 123, Trainer M Maker
Won all 3 starts at 2 yrs, culminating in narrow defeat of Union Rags in Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Back to best when landing G3 Gotham at Aqueduct in March comfortably by 3 lengths from My Adonis, giving weight all round. Front-runner prior to last time, when tracked until going on 2f out. May next take in 9f Wood Memorial (a race his sire Tapit won, though dam was a sprinter) at Aqueduct on April 7.

CREATIVE CAUSE Timeform Rating 121, Trainer M Harrington
Winner of 4 of 7 starts, notably G1 Norfolk at Santa Anita at 2 yrs, when also third to Hansen and Union Rags in Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Back to best when giving weight and beating to Bodemeister in G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita in March. Son of Giant's Causeway and better prospects than some of staying beyond 8.5f. May next contest Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

SECRET CIRCLE Timeform Rating 121, Trainer B Baffert
Fast juvenile, unbeaten in 3 starts, notably Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. Stretched out to around 8f this year, beaten narrowly on first occasion and winning narrowly at Oaklawn in G3 Southwest and G2 Rebel since. Gave weight all round when holding Optimizer by three-quarters of a length last time. Some encouragement from breeding that he could stay further (sire gained biggest win at 9.5f). Could be aimed at G1 Arkansas Derby, again at Oaklawn, on April 14.

GEMOLOGIST Timeform Rating 119p, Trainer T Pletcher
Unbeaten in 3 starts at 2 yrs, notably G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes over 8.5f at Churchill Downs, and one this year. Beat Currency Swap impressively by 7 lengths in allowance at Gulfstream in March. Son of Tiznow, and seems a likely stayer at 10f in same colours as 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. Likely to return to Graded company in G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7.

OPTIMIZER Timeform Rating 117, Trainer D Lukas
Maiden at Saratoga at 2 yrs has been sole win from 8 starts, but has kept good company, and made eye-catching late headway when close second to Secret Circle in G2 Rebel at Oaklawn last time (rated 4 lb better than result). Son of 12f Breeders' Cup Turf winner English Channel, and should be suited by at least 10f himself. Needs much greater earnings to make Kentucky Derby field, and may take on Secret Circle again in G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on April 14.

EL PADRINO Timeform Rating 116, Trainer T Pletcher
Won 1 from 3 as a juvenile and both starts this year, notably G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds last time by nose from Mark Valeski. Son of Kentucky Derby fourth Pulpit and shapes as if will stay beyond 9f himself. May reportedly clash with Union Rags in Florida Derby next.

HOWE GREAT Timeform Rating 116, Trainer G Motion
Unbeaten in 4 runs since debut second, defeating Dullahan by length in G3 Palm Beach at Gulfstream last time, in March. Best efforts on turf to date. Son of smart Japanese miler Hat Trick but has already shown stays 9f. May next take in G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 14, as did connections' Animal Kingdom on way to Kentucky Derby success in 2011.

BODEMEISTER Timeform Rating 115, Trainer B Baffert
All 3 runs at Santa Anita, debuting in January then winning maiden by over 9 lengths. Ran Creative Cause (who conceded 5 lbs) to three-quarters of a length in G2 San Felipe in March. Son of Belmont winner Empire Maker and smart US 2-y-o Untouched Talent, and seems a likely stayer at beyond 8.5f.

DULLAHAN Timeform Rating 115p, Trainer D Romans
Only win from 6 appearances at 2 yrs was in G1 Futurity at Keeneland by three-quarters of a length from Majestic City. Fourth to Hansen in Breeders' Cup Juvenile on final outing. Encouraging length second to Howe Great in G3 Palm Beach at Gulfstream on return on turf in March, staying on well. Half-brother to a Kentucky Derby winner in Mine That Bird and looks open to improvement at further than 9f. Being aimed at G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 14.

ALPHA Timeform Rating 113, Trainer K McLaughlin
Won 1 out of 3 at 2 yrs and both this term, most recently G3 Withers at Aqueduct in February by three-and-a-quarter lengths from Speightscity. Behind Union Rags the two times they met, though presumably wasn't himself in Breeders' Cup. By Bernardini, out of 11.5f winner from the family of Swain, and seems near certain to stay the 10f Derby distance, having so far tried no further than 8.5f. Owned by Godolphin. Being aimed at Florida Derby on March 31 or G2 Louisiana Derby day after.

PROSPECTIVE Timeform Rating 113, Trainer M Casse
Has won 4 of 7 starts, notably G2 Tampa Bay Derby last time (when first-time blinkered) by three-quarters of a length from Golden Ticket. Son of Malibu Moon, and has yet to try further than 8.5f. May next take in Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7.

Kentucky Derby Diary:
Saturday March 24: G3 Spiral Stakes, Turfway Park 9f;
Sunday March 25: G3 Sunland Derby 9f;
Saturday March 31: G1 Florida Derby, Gulfstream 9f.

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In-Play Betting: How predictable are the extreme ups and downs?

In-Play / Simon Rowlands / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ascot: Found to be the least erratic jumps course.

"Ascot did not have a single [1000.0] winner or [1.01] loser over jumps from 135 races..."

Rare, or "Black Swan", events make the headlines when they occur. Simon Rowlands considers the evidence of how and when they have cropped up for in-running punters...

One of the upsides of a spate of racing cancellations - such as we are having in Britain at present - is that it affords time to take stock and to refine betting strategies without much in the way of day-to-day distractions. Or that is what I am trying to convince myself at present.

As an example, I decided this might be a good opportunity to look at some data concerning in-play prices and the incidence of rare, or "Black Swan", events. I really should get out more (or "at all" would be nice given the snowdrift at my front door).

There is, understandably, a bit of a kerfuffle when the thoroughly unexpected happens.

Winners matched at [1000.0] in-running and losers matched at [1.01] in-running make headlines. Someone usually asks "how can you lay/back a horse at such a price without complete certainty?", while conveniently forgetting that the layer/backer picks up many more times than they leave their money behind.

From 2009 to 2011 inclusive (Flat and jumps), there were nearly 140,000 horses matched at [1000.0] in-play and just 108 of them won. At the same time, nearly 28,000 horses were matched at [1.01] in-play and 387 of them were turned over.

What should be stated up front is that rare events like [1000.0] winners happen too infrequently for it to be possible to come up with meaningful figures in many instances.

If something is expected to happen only once in 1000 attempts then you are going to need very many more than 1000 attempts to start to see a true pattern. Random variation will see to it that parts of the data stand out from the norm.

That said, betting is an exercise in acting upon information that is often incomplete. You are likely to miss opportunities (good and bad) if you always wait for copper-bottomed proof.

With all the above in mind, I consolidated the in-running data by course (treating Flat and jumps separately) and combined [1000.0] winners and [1.01] losers in order to see how often they occurred compared to how often they might be expected to have occurred. Here are a few of the findings:

The top jumps courses for Black Swan events were:
FOLKESTONE (rare events occurred 2.31 times expectation)
WORCESTER (2.29)
NEWCASTLE (2.14)

The top Flat courses were:
CATTERICK (1.60)
SANDOWN (1.58)
HAMILTON (1.42)

The least erratic jumps courses were:
ASCOT (0.00)
NEWTON ABBOT (0.16)
WINCANTON (0.19)

The least erratic Flat courses were:
PONTEFRACT (0.54)
RIPON (0.63)
CHESTER (0.68)

If the identities of some of those courses come as a surprise, it should be remembered that what is being measured is the in-play market's ability to get things "right" where rare events are concerned, and not the predictability of results and events at the course itself.

We may expect races to change in character at somewhere like Pontefract, but that already could be factored into the in-play prices themselves.

Ten Flat courses did not have a single [1000.0] winner in the period under review, with Goodwood (2109 horses matched) having the biggest sample.

Catterick (Flat) had 9 horses turned over at the minimum price of [1.01] from 358 horses matched at that price.

Chepstow had 5 horses beaten at the minimum price in chases from just 103 matched.
Meanwhile, Worcester had 5 horses win at [1000.0] in hurdles and bumpers from just 1,434 matched.

Ascot did not have a single [1000.0] winner or [1.01] loser over jumps from 135 races.

In order to drill down a bit more, and to lessen the influence of variation, I considered losers at less than [1.10] in-play at the four all-weather tracks, the courses at which there was, by some way, the most racing.

The fact is that there was little difference between them overall (Southwell led the way in in-running unpredictability, though not by much). There was, however, a tendency for fewer rare(ish) events - of losers as a proportion of horses matched at short odds - to occur at shorter distances than longer ones.

As mentioned, the above figures are prone to fluctuation. It will be interesting to see whether they are merely descriptive or will be borne out by events hereafter.

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Breeders' Cup: Danedream has Churchill Downs options

Breeders’ Cup News / Timeform / 05 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Danedream could now go to the Breeders' Cup

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Danedream could make her next appearance at the Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs in November...

Peter Schiergen's three-year-old was most impressive when running out a five-length winner of Europe's Premier middle-distance event at Longchamp on Sunday, running to a Timeform rating of 132.

She has now been supplemented for the Breeders' Cup and has the option of the Filly & Mare Turf, where she could face the likes of Midday (124) and Stacelita (121), while she also has the option of lining up against the colts once more in the Breeders' Cup Turf over a mile and a half.

Should a trip to America be thought to come too soon, she could instead head for the Japan Cup, homeland of her new part-owner Teruya Yoshida.

"She could go for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare, for which I think we paid 25,000, or we could switch her to the Turf. The Filly & Mare is the easy option anyway," Schiergen told Paris-Turf.

"However, as she was been sold in part to Mr Yoshida, the Japan Cup is now also an option.

"She would not be able to run in both, we would have to have to make a decision but as yet nothing as been decided. She will tell us where to go.

"She has come out of the race fine and eaten up but was understandably tired."

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