Premier League: Festive season unlikely to solve Title puzzle

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bet365 Gold Cup Result: Daly lifts season finale

Quentin Collonges outbattled Same Difference in a thrilling finish to lift the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown...

Andrew Tinkler was always prominent aboard the Henry Daly-trained winner, with the 17.016/1 shot tracking early leaders Becauseicouldntsee and Galaxy Rock.

That pair had built up a seven-length advantage with a circuit to run in the Grade Three heat but their early efforts eventually told and they were lining up in behind.

With three fences to jump, there were a handful of horses, including favourite Away We Go, travelling well and poised to challenge.

However, the market leader lost all chance when crashing through the second-last fence while Muirhead also appeared to make a costly mistake.

That left Quentin Collonges and Same Difference to slug it out, with Sam Twiston-Davies looking pretty confident on the latter.

They took the last together and Same Difference edged ahead, only for Tinkler to ask his mount for one last push which proved decisive as he pulled two lengths clear at the line.

Away We Go was a further 13 lengths back in third with Muirhead in fourth.

Daly said: "We were going to go to Scotland (for the Scottish National) but the ground was so heavy (earlier in the week), so we came here instead.

"He's not big enough to jump the fences when it's soft so he's had a light campaign.

"Briery Fox led over the last here and got beat (in 2009) so it's a very nice end of season race to win.

"I'd imagine he'll go for good staying chases next year, but he's so small that the National fences would seem very big for him, it's something we'll have to think about."

Tinkler said: "It's great that on a day Nicky Henderson is crowned champion trainer, another of the trainers I ride for has won a big race.

"He stays so well but it's his attitude that helps him to stay, he's so tough."

Nigel Twiston-Davies said of the runner up: "I thought we were going to win but we were giving 9 lb away to an improving horse."

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Paul Nicholls: Reflections on a season of ups and downs

"Considering we have not had the best of luck this season with injuries to some big names, to have won races such as the Charlie Hall, the Betfair Chase, the Paddy Power, the Lexus and the Aintree Hurdle is not too bad going."

With the National Hunt season drawing to a close, Paul takes time to reflect on a campaign that has been challenging for Ditcheat in many respects but has, in fact, been better than many people might have imagined

It did make me smile when someone mentioned to me the other day that we have had a 'disappointing' season. 

Because I don't think that we have had any such thing. In fact, with 130 winners on the board and over £2.3m in prize money, I think we have had a bloody good season.

Considering we have not had the best of luck this season with injuries to some big names - more of that later - to have won races such as the Charlie Hall, the Betfair Chase, the Paddy Power, the Lexus and the Aintree Hurdle is not too bad going.

Of course, I would have loved to have won the trainers' championship again. It was a honour to win it once, let alone seven times. But a trainer's job, first and foremost, is to win races and prize money for his owners and I think we have a done pretty good job on that front this season.

I didn't have the Seaborough horses this season - a lot of big yards have these satellite yards - and the 18 winners that we sent out from there in the last campaign. So 130-odd winners really pleased me, considering we had 138 in 2011-12.

Don't forget that we had three winners from five runners in Ireland, too, to net over £180,000 in prize money. And Tidal Bay provided one of the real highlights of the season when we coaxed him back to form, and probably a career-best, at the age of 12, culminating in a thrilling victory in the Lexus.

We clearly failed to reproduce the success we have had at previous Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals, and Nicky is now in the situation where I was five or so years ago in terms of having a lot of the best talent for the big races, as well as real depth. But racing is like that, it is cyclical. And if I have anything to do with it, the wheel of fortune will rotate back to us.

Luck

It's fair to say that luck is one thing we haven't particularly had a lot of this season.

To lose Big Buck's and Al Ferof, two of the stable stars, on one December morning was a pretty crushing blow at the time, while losing other good horses, including Cristal Bonus, was very sad. Throw in the likes of Silviniaco Conti's fall in the Gold Cup and Tidal Bay's injury before the National and there was a theme of bad luck and what-might-have-been throughout the campaign.

But if we were in any danger of feeling sorry for ourselves, we were soon dragged into the real world with the crushing news of Dominic Baker's death in a car crash. We are one big family here at Ditcheat, and when Clifford lost his son, we all felt it too.

That was loss in the most starkest and darkest sense. It certainly put all the nonsense that surrounded Kauto Star's leaving the stable into perspective, too. 

Just as with Nicky and Sprinter Sacre, Kauto was probably the greatest horse I am likely to ever train and it was very sad to see him go in the manner he did and the resulting publicity. But it was a privilege to have him here for over nine years, and great to see him doing so well in his new career.

Looking ahead

So what does the future hold?

Well, if it is the start of a new era horse-wise - though we are not short of top class talent with Big Buck's, Al Ferof, Silviniaco Conti, Tidal Bay, Zarkandar and the like, as well as a lot of promising young horses  - it certainly is staff-wise. 

We combined an end-of-season staff party with Dan's leaving-do here on Monday night, and I am sure he will go on to prove himself in his own right just as much as Harry did this season. 

If he does fail as a trainer, then he looks to have a good stallion career in front of him at least, as he and Gracie are expecting their first child. Good luck trying to juggle a newborn and a new training career, Dan! 

He was not only one of my two right hand men here along with Clifford, he is also a great friend, too. So he will be a great loss in every respect.

But, as horses move on, so do staff. And I am sure my new assistant Tom Jonason, who has been here for three years and who has been shadowing Dan for the past six months, will step up to the plate. And David Prichard will take over Tom's role as pupil assistant.

The season finishes at Sandown on Saturday - I may not be collecting the trainers' title but Megan is receiving her award as the leading 148cm Pony Race Champion for last season - but the new challenge for us starts the very next day with plenty to run over the summer. They have been waiting nine months for their ground, so it makes sense for them to go out and enjoy it at last.

Let's hope that next season goes more smoothly than this one.  

Whatever fate throws at us, rest assured that we will be as determined and focused as ever. The best always bounce back, as Sir Alex and Man Utd have shown again this season, and I would like to think that myself and Team Ditcheat have that kind of winning mentality and strong work ethic. 

And as Alex has always said to me, you are only as good as your squad. So the pressure is on me to go out and find the next Robin van Persie, surely the signing, and the player, of the season! 

I have already bought what I think will be significant additions to the squad, and I'll name just five here: Vicente, On Blueberry Hill, Black River, Vesperal Dream, and Caesar Milan. And there will be plenty of more coming and goings in the summer.

But win, lose or draw, we will always give of our best. We owe it to the past, and the memory of Dominic, to make the best of whatever the future holds. It will be tough, but life invariably is.

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Premier League: Back Mancini to leave Manchester City after disastrous season

"If United this season haven’t been genuinely great, their manager yet again certainly has. Which is more than you can say for his counterpart down the road." 

As Betfair launch a new Mancini To Go? market, Luke Moore explains why Roberto Mancini will almost certainly be out of the Manchester City door ahead of the new season...

As the celebrations rang around Old Trafford last night after a convincing Robin van Persie-inspired victory over struggling Aston Villa, more than a penny would have been offered for the thoughts of the wealthy owners of Manchester City. Because, make no mistake about it, this campaign has been a disaster for Roberto Mancini and his team, by any measure you wish to use. 

After the narrowest of title wins last season, their first in 44 years, the temperamental Italian went about adding quality to his squad, wielding his chairman's cheque book with abandon and promptly drafting in midfielder Javi Garcia, wide man Scott Sinclair (trust me, he is still a City player), the latest of England's injury-prone roses Jack Rodwell, an ageing and ultimately semi-retired Maicon and defender Matija Nastasic. 

The Italian also failed to convince several other targets to join his project at City; Robin van Persie, Daniele De Rossi and Eden Hazard all decided against moves to the Etihad for various reasons, and if those facts don't quite make a disastrous transfer window, it certainly pitches it some way short of a good one. Of the personnel Mancini did manage to convince to sign, only Nastasic could legitimately be considered a successful buy thus far. Mancini's 'improvements' were either unrealistic or failed to actually improve anything. 

At time of writing, Manchester City under Mancini have also recorded just 68 points this season, and even if they win all of the five fixtures they have remaining cannot approach anything near the 89 points they totalled last term. Add all that to another disastrous showing in the Champions League where they failed to win a single game and managed just three points, and the facts are there for all to see: Manchester City under Roberto Mancini are not only hugely under-performing with the group of players they have, but they are actually going backwards. Mancini has failed in all three main departments of his job.

There have long been question marks over the fiery Italian's abilities as a manager on the European stage, and he hasn't shown anything to suggest that he has learnt from previous mistakes and poor showings as boss of Internazionale, where he failed to progress beyond the quarter-final stage in his time there despite managing the standout side in Serie A, backed by Massimo Moratti's millions. Yes, if Man City want to make a serious impression on that competition they need to look beyond Mancini, but that is something that could have been reasonably deduced before he took over at the Etihad. It's his domestic failure that will really rankle with the decision makers at the top and make them wonder where they turn next.

Mancini's management style also attracts criticism. Happy to berate his players in public and wear his heart on his sleeve (just imagine playing poker against him), his faults are easy to overlook when he is delivering the club their first title in several generations, but when they're floundering 16 points behind their local rivals despite having arguably the biggest playing budget in world football it should and will be a different story. He recently commented that he felt there was no difference in quality between his side and Ferguson's, only United's superior attitude won the day. Surely instilling a winning attitude into a great group of players is the manager's responsibility? 

Much has been made of whether this title-winning Manchester United team is a truly 'great' side or not, but if it isn't, then Manchester City, their closest rivals, should shoulder much of the blame for not running them anywhere near close and really testing how good they could be. What's more, even if United this season haven't been genuinely great, their manager yet again certainly has. Which is more than you can say for his counterpart down the road. 

If City want to kick on and improve next year, it cannot be with Roberto Mancini at the helm, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if City's owners came to the same conclusion.

Recommended Bet

Back Mancini to leave Manchester City in the Mancini To Go? market 

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Jamie Lynch's Flat Season Preview: Look to the stars

With the Flat season upon us, Jamie Lynch hijacks one of the oldest - and phoniest - belief systems in the book, the signs of the zodiac, to analyse a dozen of the major racing personalities for 2013...

This novel that McCoy is supposed to be writing may turn out to be a hit given he has something in common with Kingsley Amis, Henry Fielding, Daphne du Maurier and William Shakespeare: they're all Taurus. It's written in the stars, you see, which is just as well as God only knows when he'll get the time to write it on earth. 

Then again, according to Astrology In Depth, Taureans hate discomfort, dislike hard work and are therefore inclined to seek occupations where they can hold back rather than risk themselves: being anything other than a jump jockey, in other words. When McCoy nearly won the Gold Cup aboard Sir des Champs it had nothing to do with horoscopes. Dirty scopes yes, but horoscopes no.

It's the Babylonians' fault. The race that gave us one of the Seven Wonders of the Ancient World - their Hanging Gardens - undid all that good work by also leaving the legacy of one of the Seven Biggest Red Herrings of the Modern World, courtesy of astrology. The other six, for what it's worth, are democracy, Feng Shui, the KitchenAid, multivitamins, the going stick and John Bishop.

I, and hopefully you, can't have astrology at any price, though I'm a Libra, hence a cynic by nature. The idea that our lives are governed by celestial forces out of this world is out of this world, almost as hard to stomach as the fact Russell Grant can and does charge £22.99 for a ten minutes on the phone. I know this as it says so on his website, but also because I rang up for a racing-related reading, to determine what the stars in the sky say about the stars on the level for the 2013 Flat season. 

ARIES (March 21 - April 19)
Case study - John Gosden (born March 30)

Russell says: The awards of last year hang heavy around your neck, but keeping a cool head, even under various gravitas-giving hats, is the hallmark of Aries. Remember how tall you are. You're looked up to by your peers, particularly in interviews. Keep talking the American talk. Focus on the spring equinox and the positive of the sun moving in rather than the spring clean and the negative of Nathaniel, Great Heavens, Izzi Top and Thought Worthy moving out. You still have the skill, you still have the fire and, most importantly, you still have The Fugue. 

TAURUS (April 20 - May 20)
Case study - Dawn Approach (born April 23)

Russell says: The bull. You're strong like one, you took none of it in 2012, and the bigger china shops are open for you this year. Once you're at full force there's no stopping you. However, yours is a fixed sign, meaning you can be slow to change, including gear, so beware those flat spots that could prevent high points. Similarly fixed are your targets, and you apparently won't go that extra mile-and-a-half, for the ultimate test at Epsom, though the people around you may want a new approach. 

GEMINI (May 21 - June 20)
Case study - Pearl Bloodstock (first ever runner June 2)

Russell says:  Think Gemini, think twins, and the twin virtues of intent and megabucks makes you an irresistable power in 2013. Wednesday is Gemini's luck day, though any day is a lucky day for those whose door you come-a-knocking with unrefusable offers. If you can't breed 'em, buy 'em. Look out Ballydoyle and Godolphin, there's a new superpower in town. Geminis go well with other Geminis, their compitability high and ambitions the same, so the link-up with Jamie Spencer (born June 8) is a match made in heaven, literally star-crossed lovers.  

CANCER (June 21 - July 22)
Case study - USA (Independence Day July 4)

Russell says: Just like the crab, American racing is going only sideways, if not backwards. That hard outer shell, used for protection, is in danger of acting as a buffer to the rest of the world. You've got a lot going for you, so look out rather than in, and have the courage of your convictions to see certain issues through. The racing world will be a better place with more of you in it, so be Wise (Dan), and let's see the Animal (Kingdom) in you. 

LEO (July 23 - August 22)
Case study - Black Caviar (born August 18)

Russell sings Simply Red, appropriately Stars: Anyone who ever saw you, would tell you the way I'm feeling. Anyone who ever took on you, would have to tell you that they're hurting inside. The only thing that left you daunted, was the feeling that you ain't Frankel. But he has gone while you are still about, turn up and win it, can't get beat. And I, see a name in the stars, it's you Black Caviar. I've seen you, at Ascot, I hope you come again. 

VIRGO (August 23 - September 22)
Case study - Ryan Moore (born September 18)

Russell says: Virgos, symbolised by the virgin, are often considered to be shy individuals, but that can sometimes mask the demon within, as is the case with you. You're hungry, probably literally and certainly metaphorically, and the time has come for you to regain your rightful place at the top of your profession. To get there you need only two things: more luck than in recent years, and a certain knighted Libran to start re-pulling his considerable weight. 

LIBRA (September 23 - October 22)
Case study - Aidan O'Brien (born October 16)

Russell says: Listen. Because Librans enjoy balance in their lives, they like to keep all options open, favouring discussions which tend to be more seated than heated. Librans have loads of speed. You, weighing up everything on the symbolic scales, are meticulous, but also far-sighted, even in dodgy sunglasses. Camelot's dimming star is balanced by the rising star of Kingsbarns, and amid all the pressure you, as an even-tempered Libran, keep your cool. You're Mr Cool. Mr Coolmore. 

SCORPIO (October 23 - November 21)
Case study - Channel 4 (first broadcast November 2)

Russell says: Like the scorpion, you're fiercly independent, which is a good job as you have the field to yourself now. Like the scorpion can lose its tail and promptly grow a new one, you too have tremendous regenerative powers, and this is a big year for you following the latest evolution. Like the scorpion would rather kill itself than be killed, you force the issues and have a style that some find overbearing, but mostly it's exciting and, with a bit of Luck and spot of Cunning, you'll revolutionise the way we watch racing. 

SAGITTARIUS (November 22 - December 21)
Case study - Graham Lee (born December 16)

Russell says:  The archer is depicted as a centaur, half man half beast, making Sagittarius a dual sign, and you are the ultimate dual jockey. You literally had your ups and downs over jumps, but the Flat is where it's at, and you, as an archer, are aiming higher and higher: well over 100 of your arrows will hit the bullseye this year. Influential is the North Star. In fact, you are the North Star. 

CAPRICORN (December 22 - January 19)
Case study - Marco Botti (born December 23)

Russell says:  Being born just one day into Capricorn puts you on the cusp, and you're on the cusp of the big time. Your symbol is the goat, who loves to climb to the top of the mountain, and you too are showing that same ambition, with a new base, new targets and new stars. One such star, Moohaajim, might just give a certain Taurean something to think about in a 

AQUARIUS (January 20 - February 18)
Case study - Frankie Dettori (born January 23)

Russell says: Who knows? Even horoscopes can't predict the unpredictable. Look at last year. Let's just hope you keep out of big bother and big brother this time. 

PISCES (February 19 - March 20)
Case study - Hydrogen (born March 12) 

Russell says: A water sign. H2-oh no. Rarely does the reality match the hype, even when the stars are aligned. It's all about the money, money, money, and it's not so easy to forget about the price tag when it's £2.5m, the most expensive yearling in the world last year. Who knows if you'll become a star, but the star-signs are there. 

You can read an interview with Marco Botti, as well as Jamie's definitive views on the classic ante-post markets and the jockeys' championship in Timeform Horses To Follow (2013 Flat season).

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John Dunlop set to retire at the end of the season

"I can confirm that I'll be retiring at the end of the current Flat turf season."

Veteran Classic-winning trainer John Dunlop is to retire at the end of the current Flat season...

Twice winner of the Epsom Derby with Shirley Heights (1978) and Erhaab (1994), Dunlop, 73, also saddled three St Leger winners in Moon Madness (1986), Silver Patriarch (1997) and Millenary (2000).

Other big wins on his roll of honour include three 1000 Guineas winners - Quick As Lightning (1980), Salsabil (1990) and Shadayid (1991) - and two Oaks winners in Circus Plume (1984), Salsabil (1990).

Dunlop said: "I can confirm that I'll be retiring at the end of the current Flat turf season. There are several reasons behind the decision. I now have much reduced stable numbers and it is now less viable than it once was.

"My wife has also been ill for quite a while as well, so that has been a factor and I can also now live in the shadow of my very successful sons.

"I don't want to get involved at the moment (in talking about his career), it is a little bit too fresh. I talked to the staff this morning and my owners yesterday and today. It's very much fresh off the printing machine."

Arguably one of the finest horses to pass through the doors of Dunlop's stable was Sakhee, who finished second in the 2000 Derby to Sinndar and then fourth to Giant's Causeway in the Coral-Eclipse.

The Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum-owned colt joined Godolphin for his four-year-old season, winning the Juddmonte International and Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe before being beaten a nose by Tiznow in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Dunlop's sons Ed and Harry have both become trainers, with the former enjoying Classic glory of his own in the Oaks with superstar fillies Ouija Board and Snow Fairy.

Snow Fairy most recently won the seventh Group One of her incredible career when landing the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown in the hands of Frankie Dettori.

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Serie A Season Preview: Old Lady ready to dominate once again

"Juventus were the best team in Italy by a long way last season, and this time around they look stronger, while their major rivals look weaker. What's not to like about a price of 2.186/5?"

Back Juventus to win Serie A @ 2.186/5

Italy's finest kick-off the Serie A season this weekend and, with their rivals weakened, Dave Farrar is finding it very hard to see past reigning champions Juventus...

I heard Zonal Marking's Michael Cox say recently that Serie A is the most open League in Europe. Now, Michael is someone for whom I have a great deal of time and respect, and is also of this parish, but I think that he's wrong. I can see where he's coming from: in Italy, there's no Real/Barca style domination, there's no Manchester hegemony, and certainly no Paris St Germain. But I think that Italy's top flight has a more obvious winner this season than another major European League, with the possible exception of France.

Juventus were the best team in Italy by a long way last season, and this time around they look stronger, while their major rivals look weaker. What's not to like about a price of 2.186/5?

Naysayers and contrarians will suggest that Antonio Conte's absence from the Juve bench will have a negative effect on the team: that's true, but remember that Conte will still be in charge of the day-to-day running of the club, and it's only on the touchline and the dressing room where he'll be missed. Juve look like one of those teams that can just about coach themselves, and Massimo Carrera should be more than capable of coping with the ten month task ahead. If they, as is widely reported, are able to sign Fernando Llorente, then they'll be yet more powerful.

So that's Juve, and in the limited number of words that I have, I'll dismiss the potential challengers as follows: Milan have lost the best three players in the division and signed a lump of a striker in Giampaolo Pazzini. Enjoy the cheque, Pazzo. Napoli have no Ezequiel Lavezzi and their squad still looks too small and short of quality. Inter are a side that COULD emerge as a challenger, but I'm prepared to gamble that the combination of an inexperienced coach in a high-pressure job, and a far from sparkling squad, will leave them short. Lazio are a shambles, Udinese have lost two high-class players, and Roma will be great to watch under Zdenek Zeman, but I can't see them putting together a realistic title challenge, although I'd love to see them do it. So far, so dismissive.

If you don't like the idea of taking 2.186/5, and are of the opinion that Juve are worth taking on, then you could do a lot worse than throw a speculative sum at Fiorentina. La Viola have recruited one of the best young coaches in Vincenzo Montella, and he in turn has recruited well, replacing Riccardo Montolivo with the likes of Borja Valero, Alberto Aquilani, David Pizarro and Matias Fernandez: I don't think that they'll win Serie A, but they can give us a trading angle from a starting point of around 170.0169/1 and are worth backing for a top-three finish at a double figure price.

The Top Goalscorer market looks interesting with a couple of potentially weak favourites to take on. I can't possibly criticise Antonio Di Natale whose goal scoring record in recent seasons has been astonishing. A weakened Udinese will be even more of a struggle this season for him though, and while Edinson Cavani is a wonderful player, he has lost a supplier in Ezequiel Lavezzi, and may have to share the goals around with Lorenzo Insigne and Goran Pandev.

Given Zeman's attacking philosophy, we have to have a Roma player on our side, and the man that I'm keen to support is new arrival Mattia Destro, who is an excellent finisher and a solid citizen, less likely to miss chunks of the season than his strike partner Pablo Osvaldo. If you can get him matched at around 11.010/1 then that would be a price worth taking. The other player that interests me is Stefan Jovetic of Fiorentina. He is as big as 28-1 with some fixed odds operators, and that's gigantic for a player with such talent and likely to be playing in such a good team. Try to get Jovetic matched at around 30.029/1

Recommended Bets
Back Juventus to win Serie A @ 2.186/5
Back Fiorentina Top 3 finish @ 10.09/1
Back Mattia Destro Top Goalscorer @ 11.010/1
Back Stefan Jovetic Top Goalscorer @ 30.029/1

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Premier League Stats: Late season improvers offer value

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Bardsley and the Black Cats are on the upgrade

"Knowing which teams have upped their game, while others have stagnated or gone backwards, might be useful for punters this week, when a handful of in-form teams stand out as good bets."

The second-half of the season has seen some teams stall while others have turned the form around. Andrew Atherley outlines the improving Premier League performers and those on the decline

Half of the 20 Premier League teams have improved in the second half of the season and it's a fair bet that some of the names on the list would cause a few eyebrows to be raised.

Knowing which teams have upped their game, while others have stagnated or gone backwards, might be useful for punters this week, when a handful of in-form teams stand out as good bets.

We can all see that Manchester United are the improving team at the top of the table - their points average was 2.37 per game in the first 19 matches but has gone up to 2.5 in the second half of the season. Every other big-six team has gone backwards since the halfway point, some only marginally but Tottenham and Liverpool most dramatically.

Swansea are another obviously progressive side. Brendan Rodgers' increasingly impressive team are second to United among the improvers and third overall (behind United and Manchester City) if the league table was based only on results in the second half of the season. Swansea's record since the halfway point is six wins, one draw and three defeats.

One of the surprise names on the list of improvers might be Newcastle, who started fast and to many eyes appear to be consolidating at best. In fact, they are still moving forward - their points average in the second half of the season is 1.7 per game, a rise from 1.58 up to the halfway point.

Norwich, too, are still on the up, which might surprise some people after their status as best promoted side was taken over by Swansea. And it might also be a surprise that Bolton have improved just as much as Everton in the second half of the season, more than doubling their previous points average.

Blackburn, too, are notable improvers at the bottom end with a healthy average of 1.4 points per game since the halfway point, but the other strugglers - QPR, Wigan and Wolves - have all gone backwards.

So, how does that help us with this week's matches? Well, there are three fixtures that pit one of the improvers against a team in decline and backing the in-form teams looks the way to go.

The three improvers are Everton (at home to Arsenal on Wednesday night), Norwich (at home to Wolves on Saturday) and Sunderland (at home to QPR on Saturday).

With respect to Arsenal's steadying form, Everton might be best off -0 on the Asian handicap at [2.44]. Wolves and QPR have the worst two points averages since the halfway point of the season and home wins for Norwich at [1.84] and Sunderland at [1.94] look good.

Manchester City do not fit in the 'improvers' category, but nor are they imploding as some appear to believe.

Their points average in the first half of the season was 2.37 and since then it has been 2.33, still making them clear second-best in the Premier League behind leaders United.
City's home form is keeping them going and their fabulous record at the Etihad gives them strong betting appeal against Chelsea on Wednesday night.

In the past 12 months City's home record is 23 wins, one draw and just two defeats - and it's a perfect 18 in the Premier League. Despite Chelsea's resurgence, the stats say back City for another home win at [1.95].

Pick of the stats
Bolton v Blackburn
Both teams rank in the top four for games with over 2.5 goals - Bolton are second with 71 per cent and Blackburn fourth with 66 per cent

Swansea v Everton
Swansea rank seventh on home form and Everton's away record against the top 10 in that category is one win, one draw and six defeats

Recommended Bets
Manchester City to beat Chelsea at [1.95]
Everton off -0 on the Asian handicap v Arsenal at [2.44]
Norwich to beat Wolves at [1.84]
Sunderland to beat QPR at [1.94]

Blackburn are beginning to reap the rewards of sticking with Steve Kean and are now within touching distance of saving their Premier League skin......

A battle between two Italian coaches is always likely to be very tactical - Michael Cox assesses Roberto Mancini and Roberto Di Matteo's options....

There's no question about who has the momentum in this match but City's record at home is an incredible one. When all is said and done, it should be a point each in a really entertaining game of football, says...

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Paul Nicholls: Ranjaan is out for the season

Latest News / Paul Nicholls / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

We have just had it confirmed this evening that Ranjaan (pictured with Ruby Walsh) has a small hairline fracture in his tibia, so is out of the Triumph Hurdle.

It never rains, it pours.

***

Earlier today, Paul updated on Kauto Star's recovery plan.

A day after breaking the news that Kauto Star suffered a fall while schooling, Paul Nicholls updates on the recovery plan ahead of Cheltenham.......

Much-awaited clash with Long Run hangs in the balance after two-time Gold Cup champ - and long time second favourite for 2012 running - takes a 'tumble' at Ditcheat...

The one highlight of last week was Zarkandar's performance in the Betfair Hurdle. Especially as he was one who came back from Newbury with filthy nose and cough.

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Golf Betting: Markets are over-reacting to early season form

/ Paul Krishnamurty / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jason Day at 37-1? It would be rude not to!

"Unlike Abu Dhabi, which played tougher than usual and rewarded accuracy over power, Doha GC has a reputation for favouring the biggest hitters. Day is more than simply a bomber, but is certainly seen to best effect on such open layouts."

Beware early-season judgements and punish over-reacting layers is Paul Krishnamurty's message this week, noting huge prices available on two huge talents - Jason Day and Gary Woodland - either side of the Atlantic

One feature of the new golf order, where both tours boast unprecedented strength in depth, is a market that repeatedly over-reacts to the most recent result. The 2012 season is only three weeks old. Most top players have played only once and could be forgiven for using it as an opportunity to shake off any winter rust. Hardly a time, then, to be drawing strong conclusions or writing people off. Yet in both of this week's events, there is at least one example of a top-class player available at vastly inflated odds compared to their seasonal debut.

First, Jason Day in the Qatar Masters. Here is a player widely tipped to sweep all before him. He was runner-up on both his Masters and US Open debuts last year - an unprecedented achievement in majors that generally reward experience. He's ranked tenth in the world already, placing him third best in this company. Before last week's Abu Dhabi Championship, against a stronger line-up, he was amongst the leading handful in the betting. Yet as a consequence of missing one cut, Day is relegated to 11th place in the betting at [38.0], nearly four times the odds of the favourite.

Such a reaction makes even less sense given the nature of this course, which should be ideal. Unlike Abu Dhabi, which played tougher than usual and rewarded accuracy over power, Doha GC has a reputation for favouring the biggest hitters. It is no coincidence that huge, wild-hitting Alvaro Quiros has form figures of 2/2/1 here. Day is more than simply a bomber, but is certainly seen to best effect on such open layouts. Historically, the two key stats here have been driving distance and putting average, and according to the excellent course compatibility stats at www.tour-tips.com, Jason ranks second and fourth in those categories.

It's a similar story in the US, where Gary Woodland is enormous at [60.0] to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Again, we have a vast bank of course form to study at Scottsdale, which suggest Gary has the credentials to thrive. Scottsdale isn't so much of a big-hitters track, but bombers have often taken it apart. For instance JB Holmes, who usually reserves his best for courses that reward his power game, has won this title twice. A further clue is birdie average, as Scottsdale is the type of risk-reward layout where frequent birdies are essential to offset the inevitable bogies. Year in, year out, the leaderboard reflects those stats.

Woodland scores very well on both counts, ranking fifth for driving distance amongst this lot, and 13th for birdies over the past 12 months. More significant than any performance stats, however, is the fact Woodland finished fifth here last year, on one of his earliest PGA Tour starts. On that basis, Scottsdale is more suitable than the Hawaii track where he flopped first time out, or the quirky Torrey Pines, where he failed last week for the second year running.

Gary really improved as that rookie season wore on, missing only one cut after May, registering top-25s in all four majors, winning his maiden title and landing the World Cup alongside Matt Kuchar. Both myself and Dan Geraghty have marked him as one of the players to follow in 2012. Keep the faith. Odds like this week's [60.0] will soon be a thing of the past.

Recommended Bets
Qatar Masters
Back Jason Day to win @ [38.0]
Back Jason Day for top-five finish @ [9.0]

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Back Gary Woodland to win @ [60.0]
Back Gary Woodland for top-five finish @ [11.0]

It's going to be a blustery week in Qatar, so who has the best draw? And what does it take to win around Doha? Read Steve's event preview here......

Beware early-season judgements and punish over-reacting layers is Paul Krishnamurty's message this week, noting huge prices available on two huge talents - Jason Day and Gary Woodland - either side of the Atlantic...

Ignore Peter Hanson's final round collapse in Abu Dhabi says Mike Norman, the Swede is still playing well and is one of this week's Form Guide's three suggested players....

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Grand National News: Time called on Oscar season

News / Timeform / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Oscar Time has been ruled out for the season.

"He just has a slight tendon injury. It's nothing huge, but it's enough to keep him out for the season, which is obviously disappointing..."

Last season's Grand National runner-up Oscar Time has been ruled out for the season with a leg injury...

Running in the colours of last year's Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Long Run, the 11-year-old almost gave owner Robert Waley-Cohen and his rider-son Sam a huge double at Aintree last April, but had to make do with the runner-up spot behind Donald McCain's Ballabriggs.

Following a creditable run over hurdles at Thurles in November, trainer Martin Lynch had been looking forward to another crack at the world's most famous steeplechase, but he will now not be making the trip across the Irish Sea.

"It's a big blow but it's not career-threatening and the main thing is he's still in one piece," said Lynch.

"He just has a slight tendon injury. It's nothing huge, but it's enough to keep him out for the season, which is obviously disappointing.

"He'd been in tremendous form since his run over hurdles - even better than he was this time last year if anything.

"He's a horse we've minded during his career so hopefully he'll be back next season."

While refusing to make any concrete plans, Lynch has raised the possibility of the gelding running in next season's Foxhunter Chase at the Cheltenham Festival before another bid for Grand National glory.

"We'll obviously make plans nearer the time, but there's a possibility he could go down the hunter chase route and go to Cheltenham before he goes back to Aintree. It's all up in the air at the minute," the trainer added.

Robert Waley-Cohen said: "It's unfortunate and it just shows you how difficult it is just to get horse and jockey to the races at the top of their game.

"We were looking forward to running in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse as we wanted to get another run into him before Aintree.

"He's lightly raced and it's not unheard of for a 12-year-old to win the National, so hopefully he'll still be up to it next year. Fingers crossed."

Hurricane Fly features among just six remaining entries for the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown......

Recession Proof will not defend his title in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury next month......

Improvement needed from David Pipe's big race favourite according to ratings...

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Premier League Bets: The season the stats mean nothing

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 02 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Leighton Baines' penalty against his old club Wigan denied the hosts a fanrastic chance of picking up a rare win

"It’s not just we punters who lay store by trends and numbers. I’ve been in many manager’s offices where there is a graph on the wall, plotting how their season can reach a particular points total they consider will guarantee them promotion or a play-off place. What happens when the line that shows points achieved goes above the one that shows the target, but it still doesn’t actually reap the reward?"

It's been a strange old season and whoever wins the title will have done so without setting the league alight if their final points tally is anything to go by. But then again, the stats affecting all teams have got us all in a right spin, says Ralph Ellis.

Statistically, nobody will win the Barclays Premier League this season. Not a single team will get relegated either.

Aaron Ramsey's carefully slotted winning goal for Arsenal against Manchester United wasn't only a blow for Sir Alex Ferguson. It was a bit of a kick in the wotsits for mathematicians too, especially those who rely on numbers, facts and figures to plot their betting.

Everybody saw that the defeat opened up the title race.Chelsea had beaten Spurs 2-1 thanks to two awful refereeing decisions the day before. Now three points behind on the same goal difference, a win at Old Trafford next Sunday afternoon will take them back to the top of the table. But Arsenal's win also meant that United cannot get more than 82 points by the time they kick the last ball on May 22nd. It's ten years since a smaller total took top spot. In fact in the last six seasons, it wouldn't even get you into second place. On that basis you can confidently lay them for the title right now at [1.29], because the stats show that simply isn't enough to win the Premier League.

Feeling brave enough to do it? No, me neither. Because this is the season that has defied all the statistical trends on which we were beginning to base our targets.
It's not just we punters who lay store by trends and numbers. I've been in many manager's offices where there is a graph on the wall, plotting how their season can reach a particular points total they consider will guarantee them promotion or a play-off place. What happens when the line that shows points achieved goes above the one that shows the target, but it still doesn't actually reap the reward?

I spent all last week wondering whether to pick up the £100 that was available if you wanted to lay Birmingham for relegation. At last week's price of [16.0] it would have meant putting all my 'available to bet' balance at stake, but statistically it looked safe as houses. Only twice in the last 12 years has anybody gone down with more than 36 points, and Alex McLeish's side already had 38.

They have 39 now after a scrappy 1-1 draw with Wolves, clinging on for a point with ten men after Craig Gardner got himself sent off. I chickened out last week and I'm still not confident enough to collect the £27 that at this moment is waiting if you want to lay them for relegation at [17.5].

More stats: 35 points would have kept you up in five of the last seven seasons. So Blackpool, having battled for a 0-0 draw against Stoke, ought mathematically to be odds against of about [2.5] to be relegated, yet instead they are [1.29]. Even West Ham, still bottom after a miserable first 20 minutes and a 2-1 defeat at Manchester City, can still get to 35 points. I suspect if they do, they will go down regardless.

Next week Hammers play Blackburn, who chipped out a 1-0 win over local rivals Bolton, and moved on to 38 points. They will feel more safe and look the safest lay at [5.4] to be relegated. But I'm sure somebody at Upton Park will remind them that Sheffield United went down with 38 in 2007 when Carlos Tevez scored that winner at Old Trafford on the final day, and that Hammers themselves got relegated on 42 points in 2003.

Roberto Martinez said last week that none of the sides near the bottom deserved to be relegated, and that was his point (or 35 of them, as the case may be). Wigan backed up his argument by moving to 35 points with a 1-1 draw at home to Everton, and should have won but for conceding a silly penalty which their former player Leighton Baines slotted away.

Even for the teams in mid-table safety you can't rely on much this season. Of the £35,000 that's been matched on Sunderland finishing in the top half of the table, most of it has been at odds of anywhere between [3.0] and [1.15]. A miserable 3-0 defeat at home to Fulham pushed the current lay out to [19.5]. Roy Hodgson's West Brom, whose ten men took their recent tally to 16 points from nine games with a late winner against Aston Villa, are now the best value to do it at [3.25].

The uncertainty of the whole season is underlined by Betfair's market. Four teams are very short odds on to go down, yet only three of them can do.There's clearly an opportunity. Just don't rely on the stats to tell you where!

Ramsey goal blows title race wide open ahead of next week's massive Old Trafford clash. Meanwhile, Liverpool seal comfortable win over Newcastle and City pull clear in fourth......

There is too much riding on the outcome of football matches for FIFA to continue their absurd opposition to goal-line technology, says Richard Aikman....

Chelsea stay in touch in title race as Harry fumes at linesman. Meanwhile, Blackburn earn vital win and Sunderland slump continues......

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Horseracing Betting Briefing: Lincoln at Doncaster start of Flat season proper

Weekly Betfair Briefing / Timeform / 26 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Although there is racing at Catterick on Wednesday, Doncaster on Saturday is the start of the Flat season proper

"The fixture that for many signals the true start of the Flat season takes place on Saturday as Doncaster plays host to the Lincoln meeting."

Timeform preview next week's racing, which includes the official start of the British Flat season...

Sunday March 27

Wincanton and Hexham are the scenes for NH racing in Britain on Sunday, while over in Ireland they go over jumps at Downpatrick and on the level at Leopardstown. It is the latter of those Irish venues that hosts the day's most interesting fare with both the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas Trials set to take place. Both races have been known to influence the classics themselves, Virginia Waters being the last filly to follow at win at Leopardstown with one at Newmarket, while Refuse To Bend did the same double for colts in 2003.

Monday March 28

Two of the three meetings in Britain on Monday take place over jumps (Plumpton, Towcester) while the other is on the all-weather (Wolverhampton).

Tuesday March 29

Taunton is the sole NH fixture scheduled for Tuesday, when all-weather action dominates with cards at Lingfield and Southwell.

Wednesday March 30

The new British Flat season kicks off on Wednesday with seven rather low-key races at Catterick. The day's remaining action takes place over jumps at Hereford and on the all-weather at Lingfield in the afternoon and Wolverhampton in the evening.

Thursday March 31

The second turf meeting of the Flat season takes place at Leicester on Tuesday, where the highlight is often the Kibworth Handicap, a mile-and-a-half event for three-year-olds that often works out well. The day's sole jumps card in Britain takes place at Ludlow, while in the evening there are seven races on the all-weather at Wolverhampton. Racing also returns to Ireland with an early-evening jumps meeting at Cork.

Friday April 1

Four meetings in total on Friday; on the Flat turf at Musselburgh, on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and over jumps at Newcastle and Stratford.

Saturday April 2

The fixture that for many signals the true start of the Flat season takes place on Saturday as Doncaster plays host to the Lincoln meeting. The Lincoln itself, run over Doncaster's straight mile, is the main event, but there is a strong supporting card including the listed Cammidge Trophy over six furlongs, while there is also the prospect of seeing some speedy two-year-olds out in the Brocklesby.

Kempton also stages good-quality Flat racing on Saturday with two listed races - namely the ten-furlong Magnolia Stakes and the Snowdrop Fillies' Stakes over a mile - along with a pair of historic handicaps in the shape of the Rosebery and the Queen's Prize.

The day's two remaining fixtures both take place over jumps, at Chepstow and Uttoxeter respectively.

Timeform look ahead to next week's racing, with the Dubai World Cup meeting and the Winter Derby at Lingfield the big highlights......

Timeform look ahead to next week's racing, which very much has the feel of the calm before the storm, though on Saturday there is at least the Imperial Cup to look forward to......

The calm before the Cheltenham storm somewhat, but this week's action is set to feature some good horses and lots of opportunities to bolster you betting kitty for the Festival......

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High Stakes Poker: Season Seven

Poker News / Matthew Pitt / 16 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

There is a well-known saying that goes along the lines of "if it is not broken, then do not fix it" and basically implies that is something is working well then there is no need to alter anything about it. Try telling that to the bosses at GSN, formerly known on-air as the Game Show Network, the producers of the ever-popular "High Stakes Poker."

For five seasons viewers were delighted with the show as it allowed them to watch some of the biggest names in poker fight it out in a series of high stakes cash games, where most poker shown on television was in a tournament format. Another reason the show was such a success was the chemistry between the host, Gabe Kaplan and his co-host, AJ Benza. Although their humour was sometimes cringe-worthy, they were a great double act that certainly added something to the show.

Notice how I wrote that in the past tense, that is because before the start of the sixth season the bosses at GSN announced that AJ Benza had been axed and a new female co-host was being sought after. That particular female co-host turned out to be Kara Scott and although pleasing on the eye and someone who certainly knows their way around in poker environment, the chemistry previously seen between Kaplan and Benza simply was not there. Many fans openly critisised the decision to replace Benza with Scott but despite this the viewing figures soared by almost 27% for the shows target demographic of adult males ages between 18-49.

Having such high ratings is worth a lot of money to the show as they could essentially charge what they liked for sponsorship, something that until recently they had refrained from having. In December of 2010, just as filming for the seventh season began, it was announced that PokerStars would be the shows primary sponsor going forward and it has had a serious knock-on effect for the line-up of pros who will be taking part in the show. There are going to be some noticeable absentees when the first episode airs on Saturday 26 February.

As Full Tilt Poker are in direct competition with PokerStars, being the two largest, American facing sites, they have refused to allow their stable of pros from taking part so viewers are going to be deprived of the talents of Mike Matusow, Eli Elezra, Tom "durrrr" Dwan and Phil Ivey, all of whom brought something to the show. There will still be some familiar faces such as Daniel Negreanu, Barry Greenstein and Antonio Esfandiari but I cannot help but wonder how much of an impact losing the Full Tilt players will have, especially as some of them brought some serious action to the table.

Another change, possibly forced and out of GSN's control, was Kaplan's departure from the show. No official statement from the producers or from Kaplan himself has been put into the public domain so one could only speculate on his reasons for parting company after six seasons. Kaplan's replacement is Canadian actor and stand-up comedian, Norm Macdonald who admitted in an interview with Poker News Daily that although he loves the show, he has virtually no live announcing experience! Probably not the best replacement in the world but he deserves a chance to prove the poker community wrong.

The final change brought into play for the upcoming season is that it will be broadcast in 3D for the first time ever. Those who have the necessary viewing equipment will be able to watch people playing cards in 3D. Why you would even consider it is the real question.

Can High Stakes Poker survive after all of these changes? Will losing the Full Tilt pros and Kabe Kaplan be too much for the viewers to take? Will you still be tuning in? I will be watching, in standard 2D of course, just to see how the show plays out. I am all for change but only if it adds to the experience of whatever is being altered, I just cannot see how the plethora of alterations to one of my favourite shows are going to be positive.

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