The Big Match Tactical View: Manchester City v Manchester United

"Blind has been booked twice in six starts in a United shirt, and this is his biggest test so far."

Back Daley Blind to be shown a card at 4.216/5

Manchester City are odds-on favourites despite being winless in three matches, and potentially without key players through injury. Michael Cox considers how Manuel Pellegrini might adjust, while Alan Thompson has the betting lowdown...

Manchester City v Manchester United
Sunday, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Manchester City 1.9520/21, Manchester United 4.67/2, The Draw 3.814/5.

Manchester City are unquestionably favourites for Sunday's Manchester derby, but following a poor run of form, confidence at the Etihad is in short supply - and Manchester United are coming into this fixture with their tails up.

The Manchester derby is a particularly intriguing fixture. Consider the balance of power in the long-term, medium-term and short-term, and you get very different answers. While United have undoubtedly been the strongest team over the last decade, and City superior over the past year, considering the last month - or even week - is a lot trickier.

United still haven't entirely clicked under Louis van Gaal, but they're unbeaten in four matches, whereas City haven't won in their last three. This game might be closer than previously anticipated.

City are also being troubled by injuries. David Silva is definitely out with a knee problem, while Yaya Toure is rated as doubtful. Silva brings the creativity and incision to City, while Toure brings power to City's side. Without these two, the Citizens are a much weaker attacking force.

Manuel Pellegrini's team selection, therefore, is highly dependent upon the fitness of Toure, and it could even define his formation. Pellegrini has increasingly played Silva behind Sergio Aguero in a 4-2-3-1 for big matches, but he could play a 4-4-2 with Edin Dzeko alongside Aguero here, or put Toure behind the main striker.

Fernando and Fernandinho would be the midfield partnership without Toure, with the returning Samir Nasri on the left and James Milner on the right. It's a lot boxier than a potential 4-2-3-1 featuring Silva and Toure in central positions.

There's less of a question mark about Van Gaal's system. Wayne Rooney is suspended and Radamel Falcao still injured, so it seems unlikely United will revert to a midfield diamond, and the 4-1-4-1 proved reasonably effective against Chelsea last weekend.

However, don't rule out a couple of changes - Adnan Januzaj could be dropped with Ander Herrera returning, perhaps meaning Juan Mata being shifted out to the flank. 

The most interesting zone, however, is in front of the Manchester United back four. This is where Daley Blind will be stationed, and this is arguably his first real test in a United shirt. Against Chelsea last weekend, he was up against Oscar, a fine playmaker - but a player who suits Blind's skillset, providing a technical and tactical test.

This time around, Blind could be faced with multiple players coming inside into his zone - it's possible, for example, that Nasri will be drifting in from the left, Aguero dropping deep, and Toure storming forward. Toure, in particular, would be a huge challenge for Blind, who isn't the most physically imposing player. Blind has been booked twice in six starts in a United shirt, and I'll back him to be shown another card at 4.216/5.

He'll depend upon good support from his midfield colleagues, particularly Marouane Fellaini, who provides strength and height against Toure. Expect United to be forced back into their own half for long periods, and their best attacks might come on the break - Angel Di Maria was subdued against Chelsea, but remains their greatest threat.

Robin van Persie, quiet in recent weeks, must also be more involved this time around, and his battle against Vincent Kompany should be particularly interesting.

This seems like another game for Aguero, though. Manchester United's centre-backs continue to look nervous, and playing relatively high up the pitch too - which plays into Aguero's hands, because of his sheer speed. The Argentine has opened the scoring in four of his nine starts so far this season, and I'll back him to score another opener here, at 5.69/2.

Recommended Bets
Back Daley Blind to be shown a card at 4.216/5
Back Sergio Aguero as first goalscorer at 5.69/2

Without a victory in their last three starts in all competitions Manchester City head into this weekend’s derby in a must win situation. City have already dropped as many points at home as they did in the entire 2013-14 Premier League season and trail Chelsea by six points already.

While the Red Devils certainly made progress against Chelsea last week it doesn’t disguise the fact that they have still failed to win any of their last six Premier League away days. United have kept just two clean sheets this season, against Queens Park Rangers and Burnley, the two clubs currently propping up the Premier League.

I can see this game producing a few goals again with City really needing to win and United offering quality and a threat going forward. A look at the head-to-head’s shows there have also been plenty of goals to enjoy in the Manchester derbies recently. Both teams have scored in five of the last seven meetings with City scoring at least twice in five of them.

I think City will get back to winning ways but priced around 2.0 they are short enough. As I am expecting an entertaining encounter and I will take a chance on backing City to win 2-1 @ 10 and 3-1 @ 16.

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Premier League: Manchester City's tranquil summer proves a successful one

"City’s best business was done in-house, with the contract extensions for Sergio Agüero, Samir Nasri, Vincent Kompany, Edin Dzeko, David Silva and Aleksandar Kolarov."

Andy Brassell tells us why Manchester City's relatively quiet summer in the transfer market looks set to be reap rewards with the club extending the contracts of some of their major stars and the improved form of Stevan Jovetic...

No longer are Manchester City dominating the headlines when it comes to transfer speculation. Now, the fireworks are on the pitch, with Monday night's win over Liverpool continuing what has been an engaging and satisfying beginning to the Premier League champions' title defence. The noisy neighbours, it appears, have piped down at last.

There is always a hint of concern when reigning champions have a quiet summer in the transfer market. With a position of strength the best one from which to strengthen, there is the feeling of laurels being rested upon, of decompression and dropping of intensity, and lack of a clear next objective going forward.

Witnessing the positivity of City's display against last season's runners-up, it is clear that none of these accusations could be levelled at them. Set two distinct and contrasting challenges in their pair of opening games, Manuel Pellegrini's side have responded well. They snuffed out the threat of an ambitious and new Newcastle side, before mastering Liverpool with far greater assurance than they did on The Reds' last visit to the Etihad.

Besides, City's board has hardly been idle between seasons. As Jamie Jackson pointed out in Tuesday's edition of The Guardian, City's best business was done in-house, with the contract extensions for Sergio Agüero, Samir Nasri, Vincent Kompany, Edin Dzeko, David Silva and Aleksandar Kolarov. Their few, select signings - notably Fernando and Eliaquim Mangala - fulfil very specific needs and suggest complementarity with the existing group of players.

This suits the coach. Pellegrini, as was apparent during his best work at Villarreal and Malaga, is infinitely happier having a core of trusted players to work with than having stars thrown at him to subsequently incorporate. Clearly, the quality available to him is far greater than it was at either of those two rather more modest clubs, but the club are happy for the Chilean to create fairly similar working conditions for himself.

It works for the club too, with their initial plan to attract Pep Guardiola involving the presentation of a less sprawling, opulent squad and its replacement with a tight group. Clearly players to supplement and improve the excellent level that exists requires significant investment, which would also put City further at odds with UEFA's Financial Fair Play principles.

The rare signings have been notable, and will continue to be so. Fernando was the only new boy to start, but he showed just how vital he will be as the team's fulcrum. His accurate passing helped City grab a firm hold on midfield, and he was rarely called upon to make any interventions like the one which denied Ayoze Pérez an equaliser at Newcastle last week. Fernando can do containment just as well as destruction.

Mangala will grow into being a dominating presence alongside Kompany, and Willy Caballero - one of the most accomplished goalkeepers in La Liga over the last few seasons - will look a bargain at £6m even if his only function is to keep Joe Hart performing at a high level.

Pellegrini's sanguine nature is also a key attribute in making sure City make the most of everything they have. Plenty of coaches would have ditched Stevan Jovetic after his tough opening year in English football. Instead, Pellegrini persevered, and got his immediate reward against Liverpool. The Montenegrin's regular role with City may end up being a deeper one but for now, his form means no risks need to be taken with Agüero as he attains optimum condition.

City are still second favourites at 3.02/1 to retain their crown, behind Chelsea, 2.427/5. It is hard to choose between the two at the moment but Pellegrini's men make a persuasive case, and are unlikely to go out much longer in the coming weeks.

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West Brom v Manchester United: It's lay-day payday when United and Rooney are in town

"The older Rooney gets the deeper he drops and with it goes his potency of finding the net. His performance in midweek for England was mediocre - not for the first time, it must be said – and the stats show he’s scored just two goals in his 13 games in all competitions."

Lay Wayne Rooney to score at any time @ 2.3211/8

David Moyes' Manchester United head to West Brom on Saturday afternoon with their season all-but over. With no motivation to get a result, Lewis Jones predicts another Red Devils slip-up and has some strong views on Wayne Rooney.....

West Brom v Manchester United
Saturday March 8th, 12:45
Live on BT Sport 1

West Brom

It's fair to say that Pepe Mel's tenure has yet to really take off. Six games into life at the Baggies and the new boss has yet to taste victory in the hot-seat and has taken West Brom's draw tally to a staggering 13.

Three of those were very creditable results, against Chelsea, Everton and Liverpool, but it's the fact they've only taken one point from relegation six-pointers against Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Fulham that will be more worrying for people involved with the club.

What hasn't helped Mel is the way other clubs, who were in much bigger trouble than the Baggies, have responded to managerial changes.

Tony Pulis has revitalised Palace and they now sit three points above the dreaded drop zone while Sunderland are also now a much tougher proposition under Gus Poyet, who led them to Wembley last week.

Scoring goals has been the main problem at home for West Brom. They've scored just 16 all season and it's a good job a backline, led by Gareth McCauley, has stood strong at the other end, conceding just 16 in 14 games.

Usually a visit from Manchester United would be the last thing they need, but considering their record against the big boys and United's inconsistency, the squad may see this as a decent opportunity to start rediscovering that winning feeling.

Manchester United

If United don't turnaround their 2-0 deficit to Olympiakos in the Champions League, then it's fair to say that their season will be over before the middle of March. It's been one to forget for David Moyes.

They currently sit seventh in the Premier League and are 12 points behind Manchester City, who are in fourth and occupy the final Champions League place. It's hard to believe this is the same side that ran away with the Premier League title last season under Sir Alex Ferguson.

This fixture ended 5-5 last season in the highest scoring draw in Premier League history and was also Ferguson's final game in charge as United boss.

Results have been more prosperous away from home rather than at Old Trafford, but not by much. In their last away day, goals from Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie saw off Crystal Palace but to say it was convincing would be farfetched.

Match Odds

The Baggies have drawn 1-1 at home to three of the top four this season and only narrowly went down 2-3 to Man City, which does bode well for punters, like myself, who continue to take on Manchester United at every opportunity possible.

Despite their poor form, the defensive tactics and the lack of confidence, the market for a Manchester United game still is heavily skewed, wrongly, in their favour.

To my delight, United are trading at a ridiculously short 1.845/6 for this clash against the limited but hard to beat Baggies.

Teams can now get results against the Red Devils by out-working and out-battling them - as proved by Olympiakos - and West Brom certainly have enough midfield energy through Yousef Mulumbu and James Morrison to get about United in the same way that the Greeks did.

The hosts do look about the right price at 5.14/1 considering their woeful record of winning just four games in the Premier League all season but the draw at 3.7511/4 certainly has some scope as does laying United outright at short odds with one eye on trading out of the bet in-running.

If pushed, I'd rather lay United than back the draw.

Anytime Goalscorer

Rooney has scored six goals in his last five Premier League starts against West Brom but those thinking of backing him to notch first should think again and strike a lay.

The England forward, despite signing a new improved five-year-deal at United, has looked a shadow of his former self this season. The older he gets the deeper he drops and with it goes his potency of finding the net.

His performance in midweek for England was mediocre - not for the first time, it must be said - and the stats show he's scored just two goals in his 13 games in all competitions.

With that in mind, I was quite surprised to see him trading so short at 2.35/4 to score at any time against the Midlands side, who, as I've already mentioned, have a solid make-up defensively at home.

The beauty of Betfair is that we can act as a bookmaker in these incidences and lay that price for all it's worth.

It's also bound to trade shorter nearer kick-off as the United followers pile on Rooney.

Recommended Bets

Lay Manchester United @ 1.845/6
Lay Wayne Rooney to score at any time @ 2.3211/8

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Opta Stats: Newcastle United v Manchester City

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Opta Stats: Arsenal v Manchester United

"Arsenal have taken only four points from seven games against the other sides in the top five this season, every other member has at least 10. You can lay an Arsenal win at 2.3211/8."

Manchester United have wrapped up another title and are now honing in on a record points haul. Champions League chasing Arsenal stand in their way.

Arsenal and Man Utd have dropped the joint-fewest points from winning positions in the Barclays Premier League this season (4). The Gunners are 1.758/11 to score the first goal, with United at 2.26/5.

Manchester United have won six and lost one of the last seven Premier League meetings with Arsenal. United are 3.3512/5 to win.

The Gunners have kept just four clean sheets in their last 16 Premier League games at Emirates Stadium. Arsenal are 1.341/3 to concede a goal.

Robin Van Persie has scored in each of his last three appearances where Arsenal have played against Man Utd, twice for the Gunners and last time out for the Red Devils. Van Persie is 2.35n/a to find the net.

Rooney scored his first Premier League goal, his first in the PL for Man Utd and his 100th Premier League goal against Arsenal. The England striker is 2.915/8 to score.

Rooney's 10 goal haul is the highest by a Premier League player against the Gunners (along with Robbie Fowler) and also his joint-highest versus any opponent in the history of the competition. If you think Rooney will open the scoring you can back him at 7.87/1.

Only Arsenal (18) have scored more goals in the final 15 minutes of matches than Manchester United (15). Arsenal are 1.84/5 to score the last goal.

Despite having the best away defence (14 goals conceded), 12 teams have a better home defensive record than the 21 goals shipped by the Gunners at Emirates Stadium. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.774/5.

Robin van Persie has scored 17 goals in his last 17 Premier League appearances at the Emirates. Van Persie is available at 6.05/1 to score the first goal.

Arsenal have taken only four points from seven games against the other sides in the top five this season, every other member has at least 10. You can lay an Arsenal win at 2.3211/8.

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Premier League: Back Mancini to leave Manchester City after disastrous season

"If United this season haven’t been genuinely great, their manager yet again certainly has. Which is more than you can say for his counterpart down the road." 

As Betfair launch a new Mancini To Go? market, Luke Moore explains why Roberto Mancini will almost certainly be out of the Manchester City door ahead of the new season...

As the celebrations rang around Old Trafford last night after a convincing Robin van Persie-inspired victory over struggling Aston Villa, more than a penny would have been offered for the thoughts of the wealthy owners of Manchester City. Because, make no mistake about it, this campaign has been a disaster for Roberto Mancini and his team, by any measure you wish to use. 

After the narrowest of title wins last season, their first in 44 years, the temperamental Italian went about adding quality to his squad, wielding his chairman's cheque book with abandon and promptly drafting in midfielder Javi Garcia, wide man Scott Sinclair (trust me, he is still a City player), the latest of England's injury-prone roses Jack Rodwell, an ageing and ultimately semi-retired Maicon and defender Matija Nastasic. 

The Italian also failed to convince several other targets to join his project at City; Robin van Persie, Daniele De Rossi and Eden Hazard all decided against moves to the Etihad for various reasons, and if those facts don't quite make a disastrous transfer window, it certainly pitches it some way short of a good one. Of the personnel Mancini did manage to convince to sign, only Nastasic could legitimately be considered a successful buy thus far. Mancini's 'improvements' were either unrealistic or failed to actually improve anything. 

At time of writing, Manchester City under Mancini have also recorded just 68 points this season, and even if they win all of the five fixtures they have remaining cannot approach anything near the 89 points they totalled last term. Add all that to another disastrous showing in the Champions League where they failed to win a single game and managed just three points, and the facts are there for all to see: Manchester City under Roberto Mancini are not only hugely under-performing with the group of players they have, but they are actually going backwards. Mancini has failed in all three main departments of his job.

There have long been question marks over the fiery Italian's abilities as a manager on the European stage, and he hasn't shown anything to suggest that he has learnt from previous mistakes and poor showings as boss of Internazionale, where he failed to progress beyond the quarter-final stage in his time there despite managing the standout side in Serie A, backed by Massimo Moratti's millions. Yes, if Man City want to make a serious impression on that competition they need to look beyond Mancini, but that is something that could have been reasonably deduced before he took over at the Etihad. It's his domestic failure that will really rankle with the decision makers at the top and make them wonder where they turn next.

Mancini's management style also attracts criticism. Happy to berate his players in public and wear his heart on his sleeve (just imagine playing poker against him), his faults are easy to overlook when he is delivering the club their first title in several generations, but when they're floundering 16 points behind their local rivals despite having arguably the biggest playing budget in world football it should and will be a different story. He recently commented that he felt there was no difference in quality between his side and Ferguson's, only United's superior attitude won the day. Surely instilling a winning attitude into a great group of players is the manager's responsibility? 

Much has been made of whether this title-winning Manchester United team is a truly 'great' side or not, but if it isn't, then Manchester City, their closest rivals, should shoulder much of the blame for not running them anywhere near close and really testing how good they could be. What's more, even if United this season haven't been genuinely great, their manager yet again certainly has. Which is more than you can say for his counterpart down the road. 

If City want to kick on and improve next year, it cannot be with Roberto Mancini at the helm, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if City's owners came to the same conclusion.

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Back Mancini to leave Manchester City in the Mancini To Go? market 

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Manchester United go to Arsenal with a point to make ahead of title defence

"Before the worries of next term, United still have four more games to play this year – with Chelsea’s record points tally of 95 in sight."

With Chelsea's Premier League record in sight, Sir Alex Ferguson won't go on easy on the Gunners - but he's got work to do to keep the pack at bay next season, writes Hannah Duncan.

With Manchester United having sealed their 20th top-flight title last night - and Sir Alex Ferguson's 13th league crown - it might seem daft to ask where the club goes next.

But, although they have won the title at a canter with just four Premier League defeats all season, there is one big question that seems to produce conflicting answers. Is this really one of the strongest United squads in recent times? Or is that everyone else in the league was weaker?

There's no doubting over the summer that Chelsea and Manchester City will bolster their playing staff with big-money acquisitions, with certainly the former - and possibly the latter - also bringing in a fresh manager with fresh ideas (or maybe even an old face).

Rafael Benitez is an enormous outside bet at 34.033/1 to remain at Stamford Bridge next term, and for many Chelsea fans even those odds aren't long enough. 

So with changes afoot elsewhere, Fergie and the United board can't rest on their laurels.

Paul Scholes, having not been seen since January, may well retire for a second time this summer and Ryan Giggs, while being instrumental in their 3-0 win over Aston Villa to clinch the title, isn't getting any younger.

There's also talk that Javier Hernandez could seek pastures new for guaranteed first-team football, while Rio Ferdinand's injuries could finally catch up with him. And there are still question marks over the (admittedly improving) David De Gea.

Radamel Falcao is the latest in a string of names to be linked with a summer move to Old Trafford, which if they pulled it off, would certainly help keep Chelsea at bay.

United have also been linked with a long-anticipated move for Borussia Dortmund hitman Robert Lewandowski, who they tried to sign last summer.

They are two big names which would certainly do no harm in the Old Trafford dressing room. But whether signing either or both would spell the end for Wayne Rooney's United career, or enable him to play more frequently in a deeper role - in which he has flourished - remains to be seen.

While strengthening their attack wouldn't hurt, goalscoring hasn't been a problem for United this season. But their defence, particularly at the start of the season, has looked very shaky at times.

Of course they can blame injuries, with Ferdinand, Nemanja Vidic and Jonny Evans all missing periods of the campaign. But that would be papering over the cracks, and that's not Fergie's style.

The Scot said last night - possibly in a moment clouded by euphoria and champagne - that Phil Jones could be the club's greatest ever player. Well he's good, but he's got some stiff competition.

And with him only really being utilised at centre-back in an emergency, the former Blackburn man isn't about to solve their defensive concerns any time soon.

Centre-half is certainly an area Ferguson will need to address in the summer and it wouldn't be surprising if he plumped for a new goalkeeper too.

As much as De Gea has improved on his turbulent debut season, he still has too many flappy moments - and Ferguson hasn't won 13 league titles by being sentimental.

But before the worries of next term, United still have four more games to play this year - with Chelsea's record points tally of 95 in sight.

They begin their latest challenge with a tough trip to Arsenal on Sunday - where Robin van Persie could be afforded a guard of honour, along with his title-winning team-mates. 

That alone is bound to spur on the Gunners, who are 2.245/4 favourites to beat Manchester United, with the draw looking a good outside bet at 3.65n/a.  

But while Ferguson may not view records in the same manner as a manager such as Jose Mourinho, he'll demand his players carry out a professional job for the rest of the campaign and send out a message to those eyeing up the Premier League title next year.

Recommended Bet
Manchester United to draw with Arsenal @ 3.65n/a

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Opta Stats: Manchester United v Manchester City

"Manchester United (W25 D2) and Manchester City (W18 D2) are two of the three teams yet to lose in the Barclays Premier League this season when they have taken the lead (Arsenal are the other)."

The draw is 3.55n/a.

It may not be the climatic battle at the top of the table that we might have expected, but any Manchester derby is worth tuning in for. As Manchester United host Manchester City, Opta have all the stats to hand...

Manchester United (W25 D2) and Manchester City (W18 D2) are two of the three teams yet to lose in the Barclays Premier League this season when they have taken the lead (Arsenal are the other). The draw is 3.55n/a.

Sir Alex Ferguson's side have won each of their last seven Premier League games and are unbeaten in 18 (D2). Both are Premier League bests for this season. A United win can be backed at 2.35/4.

Including the Community Shield match in 2011, the last five meetings between Manchester City and Manchester United (all comps) have seen 23 goals scored - an average of 4.6 a game. Over 4.5 goals is available at 5.85/1.

Manchester United are the only team yet to concede a penalty in the Premier League this season. The odds of a penalty being take by either side are 3.3512/5.

Only Man City (14) have kept more clean sheets than United so far this season (11). A City clean sheet can be backed at 5.04/1.

35% of the goals Man City have conceded in the league this season have been scored from outside the area (9 of 26); a league high proportion. Manchester United are 1.232/9 to score against City.

Robin van Persie has gone nine successive appearances without a goal in all competitions; this despite attempting 24 shots a goal within his 549 minutes on this pitch during this run. Van Persie is 2.3611/8 to end his barren run.

Manchester United have kept six clean sheets in a row in the Premier League, and have not conceded for 627 minutes in the competition. Only nine sides have gone longer without conceding a goal in the competition, with Manchester United's run of 1334 minutes in 2008-09 the longest. Another United clean sheet is priced at 3.613/5.

Carlos Tevez has now netted seven goals in his last six competitive games for Manchester City. The Argentine is 3.259/4 to score against his former club.

On six occasions this season, Man Utd have conceded the first goal at Old Trafford in the Premier League. They have won five of those six games, losing the other 3-2 to Tottenham. United are 8.5n/a to win from behind.

This will be Manchester United's 51st Premier League game on a Monday. They have won 36, drawn 10 and lost four of the previous 50. It will be Man City's 56th Monday match (W23 D15 L17). Manchester United are 1.645/8 in the draw no bet market.

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Lee Dixon: United a huge price to win the battle of Manchester

"There's no reason to think that the Sir Alex will not field his best XI, and massively motivated for a fixture with nothing but pride at stake."

Back United to win @ 2.3411/8

United are running away with the league but are they really going to field a weakened side and roll over with City in town? No way, says Lee Dixon!

It's not often you get the chance to back Manchester United at odds-against playing at home this season and on price alone I feel duty bound to make them a recommended bet for this Monday night special.

Yes, City are their nearest opponents in the league and, yes, this is a derby match.
But records don't get much stronger than United's at Old Trafford with 14 wins from 15 games and I don't buy the argument that City will win because they are the more motivated side.

Had Sir Alex Ferguson's team won in the FA Cup at Chelsea on Easter Monday, they could possibly have been excused a reserved performance from a weaker than expected lineup with Fergie looking to safeguard his best players for a potential double.

They didn't though, and there's no reason to think that the Sir Alex will not field his best XI, and massively motivated for a fixture with nothing but pride at stake.

Successful betting is built on taking value prices and, at 2.3411/8 to win, United are just that.

Old Trafford has been criticised for lacking atmosphere in recent times but there will be no lack of passion from a full house on Monday night. The capacity crowd and those watching at home will be expecting a cracking game from two of the most talented attacks in English football, but I feel it will be defences to the fore. The Opta stats back that up: City have kept the most clean sheets in the league this year (14) and United are next on the list with 11. David de Gea has not had to pick the ball out of his net in the last six league games. 

With those stats on board I'm happy to take a chance on under 2.5 goals at odds-against. There have been plenty of goals in this game, but the equivalent fixture around this time last year finished 1-0 to City. Bold punters might take a chance on either team winning by a goal to nil at 10.09/1 for United and 13.012/1 for City. 

Vincent Kompany scored the winner that night at the Etihad and his return is big for City. He scored against Newcastle as City romped to a 4-0 win and just having the captain back - both on the pitch and in the dressing room - will be huge. That just makes a tight game more likely and I don't think his return will be enough to steer City to victory. Robin van Persie may have gone cold - not that I find that of any great concern - and I just fancy United to hold sway over their Noisy Neighbours by the odd goal.

Recommended Bets 

Back United to win @ 2.3411/8
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.166/5

"Manchester United will want to make a statement here - the 6-1 defeat in this fixture last season will still hurt, and against a City still with relatively little to play for, United should record a victory. However, the lack of quality from United's attackers in recent weeks means a big win is unlikely, and I agree with Lee on the lack of goals. With six league clean sheets in a row for United, I'll happily back another at 3.7."

"Let’s face it, all that is really up for grabs in this one are the bragging rights, United have won the league and I am sure City will be second. I also think that Man City will have one eye on the upcoming Chelsea FA Cup semi final. I was shocked to see United @ 2.32 and I agree with Lee, this is great value for a team that has won its last seven in a row scoring 13 and conceding only once. Add to that Man Utd’s incredible home form, the last time they failed to score in a Premier League home game was against Aston Villa on 12/12/09. They have managed to score in each of the 61 league games at Old Trafford since that Villa defeat and have lost only four times, drawing three. Only word of caution is that United have NEVER completed a Premier League season without drawing at least one game on home soil.

"I will be backing the red side of Manchester to take the bragging rights @ 2.32 in the match odds with a little cheap insurance on the 1-1 @ 7.8 as a saver."

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Chelsea v Manchester United: Red Devils too good domestically to oppose

"You'll no doubt know then that United are unbeaten in 23 games domestically, winning a staggering 19 of those games including their last six league games without conceding a single goal."

Back Man Utd To Qualify @ 2.0621/20

Is Rafa Benitez putting FA Cup glory ahead of Champions League qualification? Mike Norman thinks he is and believes Chelsea's inconsistent form will cost them any silverware this season...

Chelsea v Manchester United
Monday 12:30, live on ITV1

It's difficult to understand why Chelsea (or rather Rafa Benitez) would consider that winning the FA Cup, and therefore qualification to the Europa League, is more important than finishing in the top four in the Premier League table. But that's how it seems.

The Blues were at Southampton on Saturday afternoon with Benitez making seven changes to the side that beat West Ham, leaving out - for whatever reason - the likes of David Luiz, Gary Cahill, Ashley Cole, Ramires, Juan Mata, Eden Hazard and Demba Ba. They lost the game 2-1 and looked disinterested according to most media sources, a result that heightens the possibility that Chelsea won't qualify for the Champions League next season.

True, Manchester United made changes ahead of their Premier League clash at Sunderland, but the Red Devils are 15 points clear at the top of the table and only a collapse of ginormous proportions would prevent Sir Alex Ferguson's men from winning the title. As it happens, United won.

It's hard not to have some sympathy for Chelsea fans. They have an 'outgoing' manager at the helm who appears to be putting himself ahead of the club; after all, having 'FA Cup winner' on his CV from his tenure at Stamford Bridge reads far better than simply 'scraped into the top four'.

Of course, Benitez and Chelsea might do both, but don't be surprised at all if the former Liverpool boss is deleting the words FA Cup winner form his draft CV come Monday afternoon. United are looking unbeatable domestically, and are in a far better place than Chelsea right now, and at this level that can count volumes.

Match Odds and To Qualify

The fact that Manchester United are outsiders to win the game in 90 minutes (3.02/1) and to qualify (2.0621/20) is only because this game is being played at the home of Chelsea (2.56/4 to win in 90 minutes, 1.9210/11 to qualify), but as Opta point out, the Red Devils have won their last two FA Cup games at Stamford Bridge and haven't lost there in this competition since 1950.

There'll be those of you who give no relevance to head-to-head cup form spanning back many years and will instead use current form as a guide. You'll no doubt know then that United are unbeaten in 23 games domestically, winning a staggering 19 of those games including their last six league games without conceding a single goal.

Chelsea on the other hand have lost four times already in 2013, and that fact that three of those losses came against lowly QPR, Newcastle and Southampton inspires no confidence whatsoever ahead of the visit of the champions-elect.

The Blues have also failed to beat Brentford, Reading, and the Saints (as well as losing to them this weekend) since the turn of the year, and with so much uncertainty surrounding the club they simply have to be opposed on Monday.

Head-to-head Goal stats

This is something that I don't normally pay too much attention towards, but the goal stats between these two sides in recent history makes staggering reading, so perhaps they - and the relevant markets - are worth mentioning on this occasion.

For example, from the last 11 meetings between Chelsea and Man Utd in all competitions, 10 of them (91%) resulted in both teams finding the net, and the same number of games resulted in the match ending with three or more goals being scored.

Both teams to Score is available to back at 1.68/13 ahead of this match, while the Over 2.5 Goals option can be backed at 1.728/11.

The Over 2.5 Goals stat is strengthened more by the fact that every one of the last seven meetings between these two finished that way, and the last five meetings all ended with at least four goals being scored. Over 3.5 Goals is available to back at 2.727/4 this time.

If you're looking to take the 'Overs' even higher, then how about the fact that the last five meetings between the Blues and the Red Devils have averaged 5.6 goals per game, and the last three meetings at Stamford Bridge have averaged an astonishing seven goals per game. Over 5.5 Goals can be backed at 10.09/1, while Over 6.5 Goals is available at 23.022/1.

And just to put a balance on the Over/Under markets, if you believe this game will go completely against the recent trend then you can back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.3211/8 and Under 1.5 Goals at 4.84/1.

I'm happy to sit on the fence this time however as United are defending so well at present that I can't be confident about Chelsea scoring, so the away team to win and qualify will be my only wagers in this encounter.

Recommended Bets

Back Man Utd To Qualify @ 2.0621/20
Back Man Utd to beat Chelsea @ 3.02/1

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Manchester United v Reading: Champions-elect to brush aside Royals

"And just last month United hosted Saturday's opponents in the FA Cup, and with similar line-ups to what we can expect here, the game was 0-0 for 70 minutes."

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 3.711/4

Manchester United are edging closer and closer to the Premier League title, and out-of-form Reading are not going to be able to stop the Red Devils in their tracks says Mike Norman...

Manchester United v Reading
Saturday 17:30, live on ESPN

Manchester United will go into the game against manager-less Reading with either a reduced lead at the top of the table or the knowledge that they can virtually wrap up the title, depending on how neighbours Manchester City get on away to Everton earlier in the day.

Not that any of this will matter to Sir Alex Ferguson - or at least he'll say it doesn't matter - as his primary aim will be to beat Reading with as less fuss as possible before travelling to Stamford Bridge for a FA Cup quarter-final replay on Wednesday night.

Of course, Sir Alex won't take Saturday's opponents lightly, but he's almost certain to re-shuffle his squad with one eye on Chelsea in midweek. And that makes trying to predict how United will line-up a far more difficult task than predicting the first six home in a 30-runner Cheltenham handicap.

What we do know is that Nani is out after suffering a hamstring injury, while Phil Jones and Paul Scholes are also unavailable. Nemanja Vidic and Robin van Persie should return to the starting line-up after beginning on the bench last weekend.

Reading sacked Brian McDermott on Monday leaving any incoming manager just nine games to save the Berkshire club from relegation; eight if we assume that a new boss won't be in place prior to the trip to Old Trafford.

Assuming that's the case then former Reading academy coach Eamonn Dolan will be responsible for naming the side to play United. He will be without injured duo Adam Federici and Jimmy Kebe, while Pavel Pogrebnyak completes a three-game ban.

Match Odds

Opta tell us that Reading haven't beat United for over 75 years; I am telling you that Reading won't be beating United in this encounter. OK, that's not exactly the bravest call I've ever made with the home side available to back at just 1.182/11, but it's just impossible to make any case for the away side... so I won't! Let's move on.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Yes, United will win this game, I'm certain of that. And yes, they'll probably win the game very comfortably, but to see Over 2.5 Goals available to back at just 1.351/3 is strange to say the least. I don't have the information to back it up, but I'm pretty confident that there hasn't been a Premier League game all season where Overs has traded so low prior to a match.

For that reason alone I believe Unders is worth a wager at 3.711/4 in this market, especially from a back-to-lay perspective.

There have been many instances at Old Trafford this season where the home side have started in a pedestrian fashion against some 'lesser' clubs - Wigan, QPR, West Ham (league and cup), WBA for example - where trading Under 2.5 Goals would have proved very profitable.

And just last month United hosted Saturday's opponents in the FA Cup, and with similar line-ups to what we can expect here, the game was 0-0 for 70 minutes.

Other Markets

It will take a brave man to think that Reading can take the lead in this game, but if you think they can then it's worth pointing out the Opta stats that tell us The Royals have lost at total of 23 points from winning positions this season, whereas United have won 27 points from losing positions - the most in the Premier League.

The Champions-elect are 6.05/1 in the Man Utd Win from Behind market currently, but I'm sure you'd get matched at much higher should you put a request in.

And one last bet worth considering is the Draw/Man Utd option at 5.79/2 in the Half Time/Full Time market. Similar to my reasoning for backing Unders, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Reading went ultra-defensive and United take a little time to find their stride.

Recommeded Bet

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 3.711/4

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Manchester City v Barnsley: No stopping Citizens at this stage

With the chance to retain their league title all but over Mike Norman believes Manchester City will go all out for the only silverware available to them, starting with a simple victory on Saturday...

Man City v Barnsley
FA Cup QF - Saturday 17:30
Live on ESPN

They won't admit it, but everyone at Manchester City knows that the FA Cup is their only chance of silverware this season, and they couldn't have wished for a better tie than a home quarter-final against Championship strugglers Barnsley.

In almost a replica scenario to the previous round, City haven't played for a week, and it's another seven days before they are back in league action so there is absolutely no reason why Roberto Mancini won't play the strongest team available to him. However, it is expected that Mancini won't risk either Vincent Kompany or Sergio Aguero following recent injuries.

Barnsley boss David Flitcroft - whose brother Garry made over 140 appearances for Man City - has midfielder Stephen Dawson back from injury meaning he has virtually a full strength squad to choose from.

Current Form

Two draws and a surprising loss to Southampton last month effectively took City out of the title race. They've recovered in good fashion however to win their last two league games over Chelsea and Aston Villa without conceding a goal. And it's a similar story in the FA Cup. The Citizens have won all three ties in this year's competition without conceding, two of which were at home to Championship outfits.

I referred to Barnsley as Championship strugglers in my opening paragraph, and simply looking at the league table then that is what they most certainly are. But it was only a few weeks ago that I was referring to The Tykes as one of the country's most in-form clubs. The Yorkshire outfit were unbeaten in nine a few weeks ago, but it's no wins in three currently, possibly because of having one eye on this competition.

Match Odds & Half Time markets

You won't get rich at all backing the home side at just 1.152/13, and I'm sure there's been bigger shocks in the FA Cup than the one Barnsley - 26.025/1 to win on the day - would have to produce at the Etihad, but everything being equal it is absolutely impossible to envisage anything than a comfortable win for City.

Perhaps a better way to profit is to back Man City in the Half Time market at 1.42/5, collect your winnings, and re-assess the game during the interval. Alternatively you could simply back Man City/Man City at 1.4840/85 in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Reasons for the above recommendations are simply. Other than the obvious gulf in class between the two sides, Barnsley have trailed at half time in each of their last four games since their good run of form came to an end, whereas City were two goals to the good by half time in both their FA Cup victories over Championship clubs this season.

Correct Score

You can never be overly confident about a side scoring a plethora of goals, especially with the possibility of players taking their foot of the gas once a game is won. Having said that, I don't think we should be too worried on that score here.

City will almost certainly be at full strength, which in itself should make them too hot to handle for Barnsley, and they'll want to build as much confidence as possible as they aim to send out a warning to Manchester United that they're not giving up on the title just yet.

If City can make an early breakthrough - just as they did against Leeds in the previous round - then I fully expect them to go on and score four or five. The Any Unquoted option can be backed at 2.56/4 in this market.

First Goalscorer

With Aguero a major doubt, and Carlos Tevez having more 'off-field' problems the last few days, a chance is taken on Edin Dzeko to get the first goal of the game. The tall Bosnian has started eight of City's last 11 games, scoring a total of six goals, three of which rewarded First Goalscorer punters.

Dzeko is available to back at around 1.910/11 in the To Score market, which isn't a bad alternative, but if he starts then he has every chance of notching first at 4.47/2.

Recommended Bets

Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ 2.56/4
Back Man City in Half Time market @ 1.42/5
Back Edin Dzeko First Goalscorer @ 4.47/2

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Fulham v Manchester United: Red Devils to move 10 points clear at the top

"Throw in the fact that Fulham’s home games have averaged over three goals per game this term, and that United have averaged three goals scored against Saturday’s opponents in recent years, then it’s a straightforward task to recommend Over 3.5 Goals at 2.68/5."

Fulham are out to gain quick compensation for their defeat to Manchester United in the FA Cup last Saturday, but Mike Norman believes the Cottagers will be left disappointed...

Fulham v Manchester United
Kick-off Saturday 17:30, live on ESPN

Just a week after Manchester United handed out a 4-1 thrashing to Fulham in the FA Cup the two sides meet again, this time in the Premier League and this time at Craven Cottage. But don't expect the outcome to be any different.

Sir Alex Ferguson has exactly the same squad of players now as he had before the January Transfer Window - even £15m capture Wilfried Zaha is back at Crystal Palace on loan - and few can blame the United boss for putting his faith in the same group of players that have taken the club seven points clear at the top of the table.

Fulham however did make some Deadline Day signings. Martin Jol has brought in Dutch international midfielder Urby Emanuelson, Bulgarian defender Stanislav Manolev, and Cameroonian defensive midfielder Eyong Enoh, all on loan.

All three of the Cottagers' new boys could play a part in the game against United, but one man who is unlikely to figure is ex-Red Devil Dimitar Berbatov after he pulled a hamstring in his side's 3-1 win over West Ham in midweek.

United's form leading up to the game is sold, Fulham's is patchy at best (just three league wins from their last 16 outings), and with Opta pointing out that Man Utd have won six and drawn one of their last seven meetings with the London club then it's easy to understand why the league leaders are strong favourites to collect another three points.

Match Odds

United took full advantage of Manchester City's failure to beat QPR on Tuesday night with an unimpressive 2-1 win over Southampton at Old Trafford 24 hours later. But we're getting to the business end of the season now, and unimpressive victories, especially when your main title rivals fail to win, are just as welcome as any other victory.

On that performance alone however some may view the 1.664/6 on offer for a United win a little on the skinny side - Fulham can be backed at 6.05/1 with the Draw at 4.3100/30.

But it's unlikely that United will play as poor again, and with five straight victories over Fulham, scoring 15 goals in the process, Ferguson's men will be extremely confident of extending their lead at the top of the table to 10 points.

United put four past the Cottagers just seven days ago in the cup, and with a stronger line-up expected for this encounter, and their ability to score goals away from home not in any doubt, then it's easy to envisage them scoring three or four again. An away win has to be the call.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Just because this fixture is at Craven Cottage and not at Old Trafford doesn't mean we shouldn't expect as many goals as we saw last weekend. United are by far the highest scoring side in the Premier League away from home, and the 27 goals that they have scored on their travels is just five short of the number of home league goals they've scored this season.

Throw in the fact that Fulham's home games have averaged over three goals per game this term, and that United have averaged three goals scored against Saturday's opponents in recent years, then it's a straightforward task to recommend Over 3.5 Goals at 2.68/5.

Other Markets

Slightly contradictory to the above, backing the No option in the Both teams to Score market at 2.3811/8 is certainly something to think about. With Nemanja Vidic back to full fitness, and Berbatov expected to miss the game, it's possible that United could win this in easy fashion without conceding a goal.

Preference however is to have a small wager on Any Unquoted in the Correct Score market at 6.05/1. I really do fancy some goals in this game so there's no need for me to concern myself debating whether the home side will score or not. If United score three or four as I expect them too then there'll be plenty of opportunity for me to lock in some profits on my recommended bets.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.68/5
Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ 6.05/1
Back Man Utd to win @ 1.664/6

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Lee Dixon: Manchester City will be too good for Saints

Newly promoted Southampton face possibly their toughest match of the season when they go to the Etihad on Sunday afternoon. Lee Dixon explains why he expects Manchester City to start with a comfortable win...

Running out at home as champions for the first match of a new campaign is a fantastic feeling. There's a buzz around the stadium and the wind is well and truly in your sails. You've got a new kit on and new team-mates to link up with. On top of all that, the sun is often shining.

You can't rest of your laurels though, there can be no basking in former glories because football moves fast and the importance of a good start in the Premier League should never be underestimated. Having won title in the most dramatic circumstances last season, Manchester City must now aim to dominate and cement their place at the top of English football.

It's been an unexpectedly quiet summer at Eastlands. I thought they would bring in players and I think Roberto Mancini did too. Inquiries were made about Daniel Agger, a player I rate, but he isn't making the move and I do think City need a centre-back.
Southampton also have a glow about them. They were very unlucky not to win the Championship but they return to the top flight on the back of consecutive promotions. Manager Nigel Adkins' will need all his nous and resilience if Saints are to take anything from this one and it will be interesting to see how talented youngsters Jay Rodriguez and Nathaniel Clyne fare against top opposition. Over all, I reckon they can stay up this season.

Half-time/Full-time

Not that I think they can take anything from this one. In one sense, it's bad luck, beginning your return to the Premier League with a trip to the champions, but at least they're getting it out of the way early and if Saints could take a point from this it would be a massive boost.

City will be too good. They looked sharp in the Community Shield, we all know that in Carlos Tevez, Sergio Aguero, Mario Balotelli and Edin Dzeko they have the most devastating attackers in the Premier League, but Mancini's new 3-4-1-2 formation is intriguing. It liberates the full-backs and could allow Pablo Zabaleta and Micah Richards new attacking impetus.
Everybody knows that City came within minutes of losing to QPR on the last day of the 2011/12 season but the fact remains they only dropped two points at Eastland in the entire campaign. They won't yield any against Saints and I'll be backing them to be up at the break and at full-time.

City to win to nil

Opta tell me that City scored the highest percentage of second-half goals of in the Premier League in 2011/12 so I think they could be a goal up at half-time before adding one or two in the second-half. They were the division's top scorers and Southampton hit the most goals in the Championship. Despite my feeling that City aren't the finished article at the back, I expect the champions to kick off with a win to nil.

Recommended Bets
Back Manchester City/Manchester City @ 1.674/6
Back Manchester City to win to nil @ 1.68/13

This is a similar introduction for City as last season, when they started their opening game slowly against before eventually demolishing the newly promoted side 4-0.

I can see a similar fixture here – will probably defend resiliently in their first fixture back in the Premier League, but eventually City’s wealth of options and superior fitness levels will prove too much.

Backing ‘Any Unquoted’ in the Correct Scores market at [3.55] covers City scoring four goals or more. This shouldn't be seen as an indictment of though - as demonstrated last season, a tonking by City doesn’t necessarily mean a season of struggle.

I agree with Lee on the Half/Time full time bet but at [1.67] it's a bit on the short side for me. However, when this market is as short as this I often look into the half-time markets to see if I can manufacture a price from the correct scores.

Looking back at last season only failed to keep a clean sheet at half time on one occasion (v who scored twice) and they were 1-0 or 2-0 up at the break on 12 of the other 18 home games.

I agree with Lee, that a win-to-nil is likely, so I'll be placing a 'dutch' bet on 1-0 & 2-0 at half-time, a combined price of around [2.0]. I'm prepared risk of City getting three or more first-half goals for the better price - remember that, of the 67 goals scored at the City of Manchester stadium last season, 48 came in the second half.

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Friendlies: Newcastle and Manchester City on the box

"Despite starting Vincent Kompany, Yaya Toure and Carlos Tevez, the Premier League champions were beaten 1-0 by Saudi Arabian side Al Hilal in their first friendly."

Two of the Premier League's biggest success stories in 2011/12 are in pre-season action this week, with odds offered on Betfair...

The transfer window hasn't quite provided the demanded excitement yet this summer, but fear not because there's actual action to enjoy again. Newcastle, Manchester City and Manchester United are among those advancing their preparations for the new campaign over the next few days...

Newcastle v Monaco (Monday, 18:00, ESPN)
Newcastle's opening match in Germany ended in a 1-0 defeat to third division team Chemnitzer FC as Alan Pardew picked players that he is expecting to step up next season with more fixtures to negotiate. Their latest lower-league obstacle are far more high-profile: 2003/04 Champions League finalists Monaco, who are desperate to return to Ligue 1 at the second attempt and have tasked Claudio Ranieri with achieving that target. Newcastle are 2.141/1 favourites, with Monaco 3.62/1.

Manchester City v Dynamo Dresden (Tuesday, 18:00, ESPN)
Despite starting Vincent Kompany, Yaya Toure and Carlos Tevez, the Premier League champions were beaten 1-0 by Saudi Arabian side Al Hilal in their first friendly on Saturday. They are staying in Innsbruck for this latest test and are 1.27n/a favourites to triumph despite their weekend struggle. Their German opponents are far more advanced in their pre-season program and have won all nine of their games over the duration, admittedly none as illustrious as this - yet are 7.26/1 outsiders.

Amazulu FC v Manchester United (Wednesday, 19:00, MUTV)
The first stop on a summer tour that will also take Manchester United to China, Norway, Sweden and Germany is Durban in South Africa, where Sir Alex Ferguson's men will meet Premier Soccer League side AmaZulu. The Red Devils have taken 22 players with them for the non-European stops, with Rio Ferdinand selected as captain, new signings Shinji Kagawa and Nick Powell included and loan returnees Bebe and Federico Macheda also travelling. They are strong odds-on favourites here.

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The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Manchester City

Premier League / Michael Cox / 08 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

The battle for possession in the centre of the pitch will be key

"Arsenal need to make sure they're not caught out by City's clever short corners to the edge of the box"

Both Arsenal and Manchester City need a win in the weekend's biggest Premier League game. Michael Cox doesn't expect too many changes in the line-ups.

Arsenal v Manchester City, Sunday 4:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Arsenal [2.44], Man City [3.55], The Draw [3.15].

The last two Arsenal v Manchester City matches at the Emirates have finished 0-0 - but both were played when City had a very different mentality, when they were content with a point in a match like this. Now, with Manchester United likely to have extended their lead to eight points by the time this game kicks off, City really need a win.

Therefore, Roberto Mancini has some big decisions ahead of this match. The biggest question is whether Sergio Aguero is fit to return from injury - if so, he'll start behind the main forward in a 4-2-3-1. If not (which seems more likely), David Silva will probably move inside into that playmaking role. Samir Nasri and James Milner would be a good bet for the flanks, with Mario Balotelli upfront. Despite question marks over the Italian's mentality, Mancini prefers him to Edin Dzeko in big games.

Arsenal's side will probably feature no more than one change from last weekend, despite the defeat to Queens Park Rangers. Aaron Ramsey was poor in an unfamiliar role out on the left, and I think Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain might get a start here instead. Arsene Wenger fielded the youngster in that position at home to Manchester United, and he was arguably the game's key player.

So where will the main battles be? The first issue is possession - Arsenal have more of the ball at home than any side in the league (60.8%), while City enjoy more than any side away (58.3%). Neither are used to the opposition dominating, and I think we'll see a patient midfield battle at the start, while both try to establish superiority.

Arsenal will try to get Tomas Rosicky into space between the lines, but City are generally quite tight in that zone. Instead, a bigger threat might be the rotation of Arsenal's midfield trio - Alex Song has increasingly become a playmaker and moved ahead of Mikel Arteta. Watch for Song's diagonal balls into the space behind Vincent Kompany for Robin van Persie's run.

Another key player - and another likely to combine with van Persie - is Theo Walcott. In a game where the wide players will generally be looking to come inside, I think Walcott could be of real value here by staying wide and high up against his old teammate Gael Clichy. However, as the Frenchman has only picked up four bookings all season (including two in the same match at Chelsea), I'll stay clear of backing him to be shown a card.

At the other end, I think City might try to exploit the space in behind Thomas Vermaelen. The Belgian looks to storm into tackles high up the pitch, and if it's Silva in that deep-lying position, Vermaelen will be drawn too high up from the defence (a mistake he made a couple of times against QPR last week). Balotelli would be the right man to take advantage of that space in the channels.

The second approach will be looking for space between the Arsenal midfield and defence - while Song's attacking contribution this season has been excellent, he and Arteta can neglect their defensive responsibilities, and Arsenal's full-backs don't like being drawn into central positions. I can imagine a Silva coming inside to play a through-ball, and Balotelli running into the ball for a one-on-one.

The corners market is interesting - Arsenal are the favourites, and City will probably look to defend very deep and force Arsenal down the outside. However, in the home game against Manchester United, Arsenal didn't force a single corner, and if Ramsey plays on the left there'll be little chance of him moving towards the byline. That market is very unpredictable, but on the subject of corners, Arsenal need to make sure they're not caught out by City's clever short corners to the edge of the box, something they've triedin recent weeks, particularly from the left.

Instead, I'll look at the number of goals. City's last seven away Premier League games have seen under 2.5 goals, while Arsenal's main threat Robin van Persie hasn't found the net for 350 minutes, something a drought by his standards. Under 2.5 goals at [2.3] gets my backing.

Recommended bet:
Back under 2.5 goals at [2.3]

There was very late drama at Stamford Bridge today as Chelsea scored at the death to keep on the heels of London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal. Joe Dyer rounds up the results and latest odds from various markets following a...

The wheels have come off at Manchester City in recent games and there's more misery to come at The Emirates on Sunday, says Lee Dixon...

United are just [1.2] to beat QPR on Sunday but Lee Dixon isn't about to take on the title winners-elect - here's why...

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Manchester United are overbet and under-priced at Ewood Park

Premier League / Soccer Widow / 01 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Antonio Valencia has been excellent since returning from injury but he and United will have their work cut out on Monday night

"The reason for this difference is probably because half the world is betting on the favourite to come good, and United’s win odds are once again way below their true value. In this game, the value bettor can decide whether to lay Manchester or to back the draw, with relatively small stakes and therefore not much risk."

The cold-hearted stats of Soccer Widow have spoken and the value lies with laying Manchester United or better still, backing the draw. Read on to find out why...

Monday night sees another huge game in the title race for Manchester United, whilst Blackburn Rovers try to distance themselves from the other relegation candidates. With Wigan, QPR and Bolton all winning on Saturday this relegation dogfight looks set to go to the wire.

Rovers and United have been local rivals since the nineteenth century, first playing each other competitively in 1892. 120 years on, and Blackburn are hoping these local derby meetings continue for some time to come as they cling on desperately to their Premier League status.

Although United have been at the pinnacle of English football for 20-years, Blackburn have of course also won a title during this period and always prove difficult opponents for the Red Devils. With Wayne Rooney dropped for a social transgression before the last encounter between these teams, it is absolutely certain that barring a late injury, he will face Blackburn this time.

Rovers took advantage of his unexpected but welcome absence from United's line-up plus a make-shift back-four containing Michael Carrick and Antonio Valencia during a well-documented injury crisis, all of which contributed to Rover's celebrated 2-3 victory at Old Trafford on New Year's Eve. Indeed, in 12 head-to-head matches at Ewood Park since 1999 in all competitions, United have only mustered two victories.

United's away form continues to be impressive with 11 wins from 15 matches played, which is more than double Blackburn's home wins for the season to date (just five victories). Despite this disparity it is certain that a full-house of over 31,000 fans will be at the game, most of them hoping that Blackburn can pull off another upset. With Wolves' apparent demise on Saturday, Blackburn's chances of staying up have improved from 40 to 50% even before a ball is kicked against United. That said, one relegation spot now looks filled, leaving the teams in 16th to 19th place dancing around four musical chairs, half of them strategically placed over ever-loosening trap-doors...

Salient statistics for the betting recommendations...

Head-To-Head (Blackburn Rovers home, Manchester United away: 12 matches since 1999, all competitions):

•Blackburn three wins (25%), seven draws (58.3%), United two wins (16.7%)
•Last six (most recent first): D-D-A-D-A-H
•United clean sheets: four (33.3%)
•Under 3.5 goals: 10 times in last 12 meetings (83.33%)

Blackburn Rover's last 25 Premier League home games:

•Eight wins (32%); five draws (20%), 12 defeats (48%)
•Last six (most recent first): W-D-W-L-W-L
•Opposition clean sheets: eight (32%)
•Under 3.5 goals: 18 times in last 25 home games (72%)

Manchester United's last 25 Premier League away games:
•14 wins (56%); six draws (24%); Five defeats (20%)
•Last six (most recent first): W-W-W-D-W-L
•Clean sheets: 10 (40%)
•Under 3.5 goals: 16 times in last 25 away games (64%)

Summary:

As mentioned, Blackburn are always a hard nut to crack for United and from 12 recent head-to-head encounters, seven finished in draws (58.3%). Soccer Widow calculates a mathematical probability for the draw in this game at 40.2%, whilst the market is offering odds corresponding to an 18.9% chance.

The reason for this difference is probably because half the world is betting on the favourite to come good, and United's win odds are once again way below their true value. In this game, the value bettor can decide whether to lay Manchester or to back the draw, with relatively small stakes and therefore not much risk. Soccer Widow has decided to back the draw to balance her portfolio of bets in this probability cluster group.
In the head-to-head matches we've looked at, there were only four in which Blackburn did not manage to score at least one goal and the calculated probability from the recent data makes a United clean sheet just a 25% chance.

As ever, Soccer Widow's predictions are made with just a cold-hearted computer spreadsheet, and gut-feeling never enters the equation. The New Year's Eve recommendation of backing Blackburn at odds of [32.0] was based purely on statistics and mathematics.

Value Betting Recommendations:

•Back "Draw at full-time" (odds [5.3], 'true' odds [2.5], value 112.9%, probability: 40.2%)

•Back "Manchester United clean sheet: No" (odds [1.74], 'true' odds 1.53, value 120%, probability: 75.3%)

•Back "Under 3.5 goals" (odds [1.58], 'true' odds 1.32, value 20%, probability: 75.7%)

As ever, good luck with your wagers and never bet more than you can afford to lose

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