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Chelsea v Manchester United: Red Devils too good domestically to oppose

"You'll no doubt know then that United are unbeaten in 23 games domestically, winning a staggering 19 of those games including their last six league games without conceding a single goal."

Back Man Utd To Qualify @ 2.0621/20

Is Rafa Benitez putting FA Cup glory ahead of Champions League qualification? Mike Norman thinks he is and believes Chelsea's inconsistent form will cost them any silverware this season...

Chelsea v Manchester United
Monday 12:30, live on ITV1

It's difficult to understand why Chelsea (or rather Rafa Benitez) would consider that winning the FA Cup, and therefore qualification to the Europa League, is more important than finishing in the top four in the Premier League table. But that's how it seems.

The Blues were at Southampton on Saturday afternoon with Benitez making seven changes to the side that beat West Ham, leaving out - for whatever reason - the likes of David Luiz, Gary Cahill, Ashley Cole, Ramires, Juan Mata, Eden Hazard and Demba Ba. They lost the game 2-1 and looked disinterested according to most media sources, a result that heightens the possibility that Chelsea won't qualify for the Champions League next season.

True, Manchester United made changes ahead of their Premier League clash at Sunderland, but the Red Devils are 15 points clear at the top of the table and only a collapse of ginormous proportions would prevent Sir Alex Ferguson's men from winning the title. As it happens, United won.

It's hard not to have some sympathy for Chelsea fans. They have an 'outgoing' manager at the helm who appears to be putting himself ahead of the club; after all, having 'FA Cup winner' on his CV from his tenure at Stamford Bridge reads far better than simply 'scraped into the top four'.

Of course, Benitez and Chelsea might do both, but don't be surprised at all if the former Liverpool boss is deleting the words FA Cup winner form his draft CV come Monday afternoon. United are looking unbeatable domestically, and are in a far better place than Chelsea right now, and at this level that can count volumes.

Match Odds and To Qualify

The fact that Manchester United are outsiders to win the game in 90 minutes (3.02/1) and to qualify (2.0621/20) is only because this game is being played at the home of Chelsea (2.56/4 to win in 90 minutes, 1.9210/11 to qualify), but as Opta point out, the Red Devils have won their last two FA Cup games at Stamford Bridge and haven't lost there in this competition since 1950.

There'll be those of you who give no relevance to head-to-head cup form spanning back many years and will instead use current form as a guide. You'll no doubt know then that United are unbeaten in 23 games domestically, winning a staggering 19 of those games including their last six league games without conceding a single goal.

Chelsea on the other hand have lost four times already in 2013, and that fact that three of those losses came against lowly QPR, Newcastle and Southampton inspires no confidence whatsoever ahead of the visit of the champions-elect.

The Blues have also failed to beat Brentford, Reading, and the Saints (as well as losing to them this weekend) since the turn of the year, and with so much uncertainty surrounding the club they simply have to be opposed on Monday.

Head-to-head Goal stats

This is something that I don't normally pay too much attention towards, but the goal stats between these two sides in recent history makes staggering reading, so perhaps they - and the relevant markets - are worth mentioning on this occasion.

For example, from the last 11 meetings between Chelsea and Man Utd in all competitions, 10 of them (91%) resulted in both teams finding the net, and the same number of games resulted in the match ending with three or more goals being scored.

Both teams to Score is available to back at 1.68/13 ahead of this match, while the Over 2.5 Goals option can be backed at 1.728/11.

The Over 2.5 Goals stat is strengthened more by the fact that every one of the last seven meetings between these two finished that way, and the last five meetings all ended with at least four goals being scored. Over 3.5 Goals is available to back at 2.727/4 this time.

If you're looking to take the 'Overs' even higher, then how about the fact that the last five meetings between the Blues and the Red Devils have averaged 5.6 goals per game, and the last three meetings at Stamford Bridge have averaged an astonishing seven goals per game. Over 5.5 Goals can be backed at 10.09/1, while Over 6.5 Goals is available at 23.022/1.

And just to put a balance on the Over/Under markets, if you believe this game will go completely against the recent trend then you can back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.3211/8 and Under 1.5 Goals at 4.84/1.

I'm happy to sit on the fence this time however as United are defending so well at present that I can't be confident about Chelsea scoring, so the away team to win and qualify will be my only wagers in this encounter.

Recommended Bets

Back Man Utd To Qualify @ 2.0621/20
Back Man Utd to beat Chelsea @ 3.02/1

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Graham Cunningham's Cheltenham Blog: Simonsig very tough to oppose

Day one recommendations

Back My Tent Or Yours and Un Atout in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Back Simonsig in the Arkle Chase
Back Arabella Boy win and place in the Cross Country Chase

The speculation is over and it's time for the horses to do the talking on day one of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. Tradition dictates that trilby hatted sportsmanship rules, but the men below the titfers are desperate for success and Channel 4 analyst Graham Cunningham is relishing the equine and human battles in the three big Grade 1 contests...

The chances of a Fergie-style rant or a Mourinho gallop down the touchline are slim to non existent, but don't make the mistake of thinking the big names of Cheltenham are any less driven than their footballing counterparts.

Cast your mind back to Aintree last April when Neptune Collonges recorded the narrowest winning margin in history to give Paul Nicholls that long awaited first Grand National success.

Nicholls had aimed any number of good horses at the Aintree showpiece without success and could have been forgiven for basking in the glory of finally landing the world's most famous chase.

But instead some of the first words to come out of his mouth were "that's blown Nicky out of the water."

The Nicky in question was Nicky Henderson, who remains favourite to dethrone Nicholls as champion trainer for the first time in seven years and heads back to Cheltenham with a potent hand headed by Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Bobs Worth and backed up by the likes of My Tent Or Yours, Oscar Whisky and Long Run.

Henderson's patrician approach inspires devotion from old school jumping fans and caution from some exchange players - witness Grandouet's volatile progress in the Champion Hurdle market of late - but Nicholls is the most feisty of competitors and will not give up his crown lightly as Zarkandar bids to make it 4-0 in his running battles with Grandouet.

Nor will he be keen to see his former assistant Harry Fry trump the pair with former Nicholls star Rock On Ruby, while Carlow powerhouse Willie Mullins heads to the Festival with the most powerful Irish team ever assembled and is confident Hurricane Fly is back to the form which saw him land the Champion in ruthlessly efficient fashion two years ago.

And all that reckons without the spiky banter which has been such a feature of the preamble to the heavyweight clash between Simonsig and Overturn in the Arkle Chase.

Henderson has suggested that the trailblazing Overturn will give Simonsig the perfect lead, while the normally laid back Donald McCain has bristled quietly in response having seen many a fancied rival crumble when faced with the sort of heat his stable star brings to battle.

True, it's hardly the sort of trash talk which accompanies heavyweight boxing, but the subtleties of the personal battles will add huge interest to the equine duels in this year's Festival.

But what about the tactical subtleties of the three big races on day one?

Tactics shouldn't be crucial in the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle if My Tent Or Yours is in the same form that saw him turn an ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle into a procession at Newbury.

Timeform ratings give him a great deal in hand and the unbeaten Irish raider Un Atout is the other to focus on in a race which will almost certainly be run at a stronger pace than the Champion Hurdle over the same distance.

The lack of an obvious front runner has been a constant talking point with regard to the Champion, while an added layer of intrigue has been added with news that Fry has decided to fit the outwardly uncomplicated Rock On Ruby with blinkers for the first time.

Fry will be hailed as a wizard if the plan comes off - and if forced to choose Rock On Ruby would get my vote - but the combination of soft ground and slight concerns about the headgear have put me off a little.

By contrast, I've switched from being open minded to clear cut on the Arkle.

It's always difficult to bet against your heart in a big race and I would love to see McCain gaze across to Hendo in the winner's enclosure and give him that knowing smile if Overturn can turn Simonsig away.

But the more I look at the Arkle the more I suspect this sets up perfectly for Simonsig.

Overturn will blaze as usual and the pressure on jumping will be very high given that Arvika Ligeonniere and Majala can also force the pace. However, a frenetic gallop could be exactly what Simonsig needs to show his brilliance.

A runaway winner of last year's Neptune Hurdle, Simonsig has slaughtered small chase fields at Ascot and Kempton with a combination of sound jumping and a relentless cruising gallop.

Expect Barry Geraghty to bide his time before loping into contention coming down the hill.

Overturn won't lie down if challenged, but Simonsig looks better equipped for conditions now the ground has turned soft and even at 1.75/7 or thereabouts he looks very tough to oppose.

Last but not least on day one, a word on the Cross Country Chase.

My original fancy Balthazar King misses out due to the soft ground, but the weekend deluge is great news for Arabella Boy.

Enda Bolger's gelding departed six out here in December but his overall profile in this discipline is progressive and impressive. Don't expect to see him on the scene too early. Do expect to see him play a significant part in the finish.

Day one recommendations

Back My Tent Or Yours and Un Atout in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Back Simonsig in the Arkle Chase
Back Arabella Boy win and place in the Cross Country Chase

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The Lord's Lays: Three to oppose at Romford

The Lord selects three to go against from Wednesday night's lively card at Romford...

Express Rover (20:15)

Comes from a kennel very much in form and certainly has a burst of pace that could take him clear. However, that applies to most in this puppy final and he will have to time it right from the boxes to hit the bend in front, which is vital to his chances.

Bubbly Jaytee (20:35)

Has one or two terrific lines on his lightly-raced card, not least in the heats here when running away from his field. However, his wasn't the quickest time clocked and, while local support will ensure he goes off a short price, he surely does not represent value here.

Gilbeyhall Ned (21:10)

Proved himself a fast dog with a fluent win in the heats, and he will repeat the dose if given the chance. But there is element of doubt about him repeating that effort now switched to five, from six. He now has huge pace outside to contend with, and might be worth taking on.

Recommended Bets
Lay Express Rover in the 20:15 at Romford
Lay Bubbly Jaytee @ in the 20:35 at Romford
Lay Gilbeyhall Ned @ in the 21:10 at Romford

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The Lord's Lays at Perry Barr: Two to oppose on Betfair night

Events / The Lord / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will you follow The Lord tonight?

"Lonely Boy folded tamely at Wimbledon recently when in front and there are plenty of strong types ready to exploit any chinks tonight."

The equation is simple - lay one dog and the other five all win for you. Here are a pair of pooches to get against in tonight's Sky-televised Betfair Trainers' Championship at Perry Barr

Ballymac William (20:35)
Will be plenty of people's choice to land one of the six-bend events, and certainly ran well when bolting home at Monmore last week. He is staying on better than ever. However, he remains a dog who prefers, and is best when, bowling along in front and the nature of the Trainers' Championship teams is that there are a number of four-bend dogs stepping up in distance take him on. Therefore, will he enjoy a comfortable lead now?

Lonely Boy (21:25)
Has got the draw in the top division of the 660m and will again try to blaze one. However, he folded tamely at Wimbledon recently when in front and there are plenty of strong types ready to exploit any chinks, the potential star that is Freedom Cache being one.

Recommended Bets
Lay Ballymac William @ [4.0] in the 20:35 at Perry Barr
Lay Lonely Boy @ [3.1] in the 21:25 at Perry Barr

The best trainers in greyhound racing go head-to-head on Wednesday night for the Betfair-sponsored competition. It's a fantastic night of rollercoaster action, says The Lord, who takes an early look at the contest here...

Hove and Henlow play the chief supporting role on RPGTV to Swindon's Sky Sports's fare tonight, with greyhound fans preparing for an open-race TV bonanza - and our open-race guru The Lord is across it all....

Racing Post Greyhound TV kicks starts another week of live action this Thursday night with a double-header from Hove and Henlow on Sky Channel 232....

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The Lord's Lays: Two to oppose at Swindon

General / The Lord / 30 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

"If there are any chinks in Bush Paddy's armour, the presence of two marathon dogs could see him denied even after an early lead."

It's the Arc final live on Sky Sports 4 from Swindon tonight. The Lord has two short-shots you should be... against.

Aherlow Shaw (19:40)

Could be one of the punts of the night for many, but is worth taking on. He has packed an early punch in so many of his races, but arrives at Swindon following a short lay-off. Will the edge be off him? Will he stay after being caught over a faster 480m at Monmore? And surely Mountjoy Moon will be heavy presence on his inside, and will be pushing to middle and wide ground from two. Take him on.

Bush Paddy (21:10)

A cracking winner of the Golden Jacket at Crayford, but this is chalk and cheese to that. The 737m trip puts pressure on his stamina and a healthy lead will be required. That could be difficult with pace either side of him. And if there are any chinks in his armour, the presence of two marathon dogs in the field in the shape of Killishin Masai, a dog with good course and distance form, and Santiago Lad could see him denied even after an early lead.

Recommended Bets
Lay Aherlow Shaw @ [4.1] in the 19:40 @ Swindon
Lay Bush Paddy @ [3.25] in the 21:10 @ Swindon

The title of this column may suggest a dubious night out in Essex but the Lord intends to stay on the straight and narrow with some smart selections......

The Lord livens up the midweek dogs fare by taking on the big boys at Notts......

The Lord selects a pair of dogs to oppose in tonight's South Yorkshire action......

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Irish Racing Tips: Time to oppose Arctic Mick

Tipping / Stuart Jones / 06 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

"Arctic Mick disappointed when turned out quickly after wins at Navan twice recently, not going with anything like his usual fluency when unseating three out at Downpatrick on Wednesday".

Three selections for Leinster National day at Naas.

Shirley Casper (15.30) is proving herself to be a most expensive chaser to follow this season, but that hasn't stopped her again being made favourite for what is a reasonably competitive maiden chase. Shirley Casper has failed to convince with her finishing effort on several occasions and doesn't deserve to be ahead of For The Staff or Jaffonnien in the betting.

Forty Foot Tom (16.00) hasn't reached the heights that were once expected of him over hurdles, but this useful bumper winner has been progressing nicely of late, and caught the eye when fourth to Peak Raider under a patient ride on his handicap debut at Leopardstown. Forty Foot Tom is still unexposed over timber, should have no trouble staying the extra three furlongs, and is ably assisted by Emmet Mullins.

Regular readers of this columm will know that we've been keen to have Michael O'Hare's Arctic Mick (16.30) on side in handicaps, both over hurdles and fences, but we've also quickly established that it appears he needs time between races. He disappointed when turned out quickly after wins at Navan twice recently, not going with anything like his usual fluency when unseating three out at Downpatrick on Wednesday. This is a really competitive staying chase and Arctic Mick should be opposed in the place market.

Recommendations

lay Shirley Casper @ [3.5] in the 15.30
back Forty Foot Tom win and place @ [9.6] in the 16.00
place lay Arctic Mick @ [3.2] in the 16.30

Three selections for Leinster National day at Naas....

Big fields are the order of the day at Gowran and we have come up with three more selections.......

For many 'Super Thursday' will be no different to 'Mundane Monday' or 'Turgid Tuesday', but avid followers of the Dubai Carnival will be beside themselves at the prospect of a race meeting jam-packed full of top-quality thoroughbreds. Here is a trio who can hopefully make their mark on Dubai World Cup trials day......

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