Showing posts with label Tough. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tough. Show all posts
Sunday, September 8, 2013
Thursday, March 14, 2013
ATP Indian Wells Betting: Federer and Nadal set for another tough battle in the desert
"I can't see either player winning this comfortably unless injury intervenes and preference is for the over 22.5 total games.."
Back over 22.5 games in Federer vs. Nadal at 1.865/6
Sean Calvert has seen a fair few Roger Federer versus Rafa Nadal matches over the years and he'll be up late again tonight for the latest instalment. He fancies this one to go long...
A fairly awful choke from Milos Raonic against an injured Jo-Wilfried Tsonga cost me my bet on Wednesday at the BNP Paribas Open.
Not for the first time this week one of the men let a good lead slip away and it looked all over a Raonic win when Tsonga went a set down and had treatment on his knee, but Raonic handed the Frenchman a lifeline with an awful service game in set two and then gave him the match in a similar style in set three, ending on a double fault.
That will be a painful loss for the Canadian, who normally possesses a more reliable temperament and Tsonga goes through to face Novak Djokovic, who had a 2am finish local time against Sam Querrey last night.
That match is for tomorrow though and today it's my outright tip Tomas Berdych taking on Kevin Anderson and if you're staying up late counting your Cheltenham winnings (or losses) then it's Rafa Nadal versus Roger Federer at 2am UK time.
Part 29 of this match-up is probably one of the toughest to predict, with both players not at their best physically.
Rafa still has issues with his knees and it's in the lap of the gods how well he is able to move on any given day. He was hampered last night against Ernests Gulbis, but was still able to edge that one and similarly Federer struggled again with his back and crept past Stan Wawrinka.
Obviously the match-up favours Nadal, who has won 18 of their matches lifetime to Fed's 10 and we can expect the same tactics again tonight, as Rafa will try and get the ball up high to Roger's backhand and control the point from there.
That said, Federer won here 12 months ago on a very windy day and Nadal has only played two competitive matches on a hard court since that day, so all things considered it's far from easy to pick a winner in this one.
If I were going on the outright match odds market I would favour the underdog purely on the match-up at around 2.166/5, but I can't see either player winning this comfortably unless injury intervenes and preference is for the over 22.5 total games at 1.865/6.
Recommended Bet
Back over 22.5 games in Federer vs. Nadal at 1.865/6
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Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Graham Cunningham's Cheltenham Blog: Simonsig very tough to oppose
Day one recommendations
Back My Tent Or Yours and Un Atout in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Back Simonsig in the Arkle Chase
Back Arabella Boy win and place in the Cross Country Chase
The speculation is over and it's time for the horses to do the talking on day one of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. Tradition dictates that trilby hatted sportsmanship rules, but the men below the titfers are desperate for success and Channel 4 analyst Graham Cunningham is relishing the equine and human battles in the three big Grade 1 contests...
The chances of a Fergie-style rant or a Mourinho gallop down the touchline are slim to non existent, but don't make the mistake of thinking the big names of Cheltenham are any less driven than their footballing counterparts.
Cast your mind back to Aintree last April when Neptune Collonges recorded the narrowest winning margin in history to give Paul Nicholls that long awaited first Grand National success.
Nicholls had aimed any number of good horses at the Aintree showpiece without success and could have been forgiven for basking in the glory of finally landing the world's most famous chase.
But instead some of the first words to come out of his mouth were "that's blown Nicky out of the water."
The Nicky in question was Nicky Henderson, who remains favourite to dethrone Nicholls as champion trainer for the first time in seven years and heads back to Cheltenham with a potent hand headed by Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Bobs Worth and backed up by the likes of My Tent Or Yours, Oscar Whisky and Long Run.
Henderson's patrician approach inspires devotion from old school jumping fans and caution from some exchange players - witness Grandouet's volatile progress in the Champion Hurdle market of late - but Nicholls is the most feisty of competitors and will not give up his crown lightly as Zarkandar bids to make it 4-0 in his running battles with Grandouet.
Nor will he be keen to see his former assistant Harry Fry trump the pair with former Nicholls star Rock On Ruby, while Carlow powerhouse Willie Mullins heads to the Festival with the most powerful Irish team ever assembled and is confident Hurricane Fly is back to the form which saw him land the Champion in ruthlessly efficient fashion two years ago.
And all that reckons without the spiky banter which has been such a feature of the preamble to the heavyweight clash between Simonsig and Overturn in the Arkle Chase.
Henderson has suggested that the trailblazing Overturn will give Simonsig the perfect lead, while the normally laid back Donald McCain has bristled quietly in response having seen many a fancied rival crumble when faced with the sort of heat his stable star brings to battle.
True, it's hardly the sort of trash talk which accompanies heavyweight boxing, but the subtleties of the personal battles will add huge interest to the equine duels in this year's Festival.
But what about the tactical subtleties of the three big races on day one?
Tactics shouldn't be crucial in the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle if My Tent Or Yours is in the same form that saw him turn an ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle into a procession at Newbury.
Timeform ratings give him a great deal in hand and the unbeaten Irish raider Un Atout is the other to focus on in a race which will almost certainly be run at a stronger pace than the Champion Hurdle over the same distance.
The lack of an obvious front runner has been a constant talking point with regard to the Champion, while an added layer of intrigue has been added with news that Fry has decided to fit the outwardly uncomplicated Rock On Ruby with blinkers for the first time.
Fry will be hailed as a wizard if the plan comes off - and if forced to choose Rock On Ruby would get my vote - but the combination of soft ground and slight concerns about the headgear have put me off a little.
By contrast, I've switched from being open minded to clear cut on the Arkle.
It's always difficult to bet against your heart in a big race and I would love to see McCain gaze across to Hendo in the winner's enclosure and give him that knowing smile if Overturn can turn Simonsig away.
But the more I look at the Arkle the more I suspect this sets up perfectly for Simonsig.
Overturn will blaze as usual and the pressure on jumping will be very high given that Arvika Ligeonniere and Majala can also force the pace. However, a frenetic gallop could be exactly what Simonsig needs to show his brilliance.
A runaway winner of last year's Neptune Hurdle, Simonsig has slaughtered small chase fields at Ascot and Kempton with a combination of sound jumping and a relentless cruising gallop.
Expect Barry Geraghty to bide his time before loping into contention coming down the hill.
Overturn won't lie down if challenged, but Simonsig looks better equipped for conditions now the ground has turned soft and even at 1.75/7 or thereabouts he looks very tough to oppose.
Last but not least on day one, a word on the Cross Country Chase.
My original fancy Balthazar King misses out due to the soft ground, but the weekend deluge is great news for Arabella Boy.
Enda Bolger's gelding departed six out here in December but his overall profile in this discipline is progressive and impressive. Don't expect to see him on the scene too early. Do expect to see him play a significant part in the finish.
Day one recommendations
Back My Tent Or Yours and Un Atout in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Back Simonsig in the Arkle Chase
Back Arabella Boy win and place in the Cross Country Chase
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WTA Indian Wells Betting: Tough Test for stuttering Kvitova
"There's no reason why Tsurenko can't be the player that Kvitova has become in the next couple of years."
Back Lesya Tsurenko +5.5 Games vs Petra Kvitova
Even with the absence of the Williams sisters there is still plenty of quality tennis to be seen as eight of the current top ten in the women's game remain in the draw. Of those eight, Petra Kvitova could be in the most amount of trouble tonight...
While Petra Kvitova is undoubtedly an exceptional talent, there are reasons to oppose her tonight.
Firstly she didn't appear to be firing on all cylinders in her last match, serving ten double-faults and letting her head drop in the second Set. Secondly she has in the past openly confessed to not enjoying playing in North America because the humidity affects her asthma, and finally she is facing a young girl, Lesya Tsurenko, who is showing plenty of belief and self-confidence.
Tsurenko has reached her highest ever ranking of 74, the young Ukranian has had an impressive start to the year with notable wins over Hantuchova, Pavlyuchenkova, and Shvedova. She hits the ball with power and she's aggressive from the backcourt. She's clearly moving in the right direction and tonight is another opportunity for her to shine. There's no reason why Tsurenko can't be the player that Kvitova has become in the next couple of years.
Another youngster to keep an eye on is American Mallory Burdette. Like Tsurenko she also came through qualifying for this tournament, and her recent form suggests she has a lot going for her. Her service stats are impeccable, with very few double faults, and few break point opportunities offered.
One tennis rule of thumb that is generally accepted is not to oppose Americans in America; there's something about the US crowd, they really know how to get behind their players. Kirilenko will be a very tough test, but with the home support, Burdette's rising star, and Kirilenko's poor record at this tournament (she's only gone past the third Round twice), Burdette can do enough here to win the match or at least cover the Handicap of +4.5.
The Cirstea v Radwanska match will be a big hitting aggressor versus an elegant, tricky counter-puncher. In their last two meetings the total has gone over both times. Cirstea's powerful serve will win her cheap points, and with her glorious forehand that she frequently unleashes with devastating effect, she can keep Radwanska pegged back on the baseline.
Last year was a stellar one for Radwanska as she made her first ever Grand Slam final. Cirstea on the other hand has not done anything of note since she made the quarter-finals of the French back in 2009. Nevertheless she is a solid performer, and while her ranking has slid since then she looks to be getting her form back.
Having played each other many times these two know each other's games very well. It will be an amicable affair and most likely closer than the odds suggest. +6.5 Games for Cirstea and Over 17.5 is the play here for me.
Recommended Bets
Lesya Tsurenko +5.5 Games vs Petra Kvitova
Mallory Burdette +4.5 Games vs Maria Kirilenko
Sorana Cirstea +6.5 Games vs Agnieszka Radwanska
Over 17.5 Games - Sorana Cirstea vs Agnieszka Radwanska
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Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Premier League Stats: Liverpool's tough double header to result in nil points
"City have scored in their last 43 Premier League home games, winning 37 (86%), and it would be a surprise if Liverpool were strong enough to shut them out."
Back Manchester City to beat Liverpool @ 1.910/11
After Liverpool's shock loss to Oldham in the FA Cup they now face a tough double header in the Premier League, starting with tonight's trip to Arsenal. Andrew Atherley assesses their chances...
Brendan Rodgers questioned the mental strength of his young Liverpool players following the FA Cup defeat at Oldham and it is something that may be asked again if they come away empty-handed from this week's away double-header at Arsenal and Manchester City.
The signs are not promising for an immediate pick-me-up. Whether it's in the mind or simply a case of a lack of class, Liverpool's players have had particular difficulty in this type of fixture this season. They have the third-worst record against top-half opponents (based on the table prior to this week's fixtures) with no win out of 11 - only Wigan and Southampton have done worse in terms of points per game, and even then only marginally.
On the road Liverpool have drawn three and lost four against top-half teams, but a more telling statistic is that they have kept only one clean sheet in those seven matches, which backs up the argumenr that there is a lack of resolve in Rodgers' team. It is notable also that only West Brom in the top half have conceded more away goals than Liverpool's 18.
Arsenal, Liverpool's first hosts of the week, have a good chance of exploiting that weakness. While they haven't been as strong at home as usual, Arsene Wenger's team still have a good record when scoring at the Emirates (six wins out of eight in the Premier League) and look a decent win bet at 2.47/5 .
Manchester City are shorter, of course, at 1.910/11 for Sunday's home match against Liverpool but they are no less appealing.
City have scored in their last 43 Premier League home games, winning 37 (86%), and it would be a surprise if Liverpool were strong enough to shut them out.
On the other side of the coin, Liverpool have lost half of the 14 Premier League games in which they have conceded under Rodgers. Although both wins in that scenario came on the road, those were against bottom-half sides Norwich and West Ham and Liverpool have lost three of the last four away league games in which they have conceded.
If the premise is correct that both City and Arsenal will score against Liverpool, goals-related bets are worth considering too.
City have had 67% over 2.5 goals in those last 43 home games in which they have scored, but it is worth noting that both teams have scored in just 42% (a figure that rises only slightly with the quality of opposition).
Both outcomes seem more likely judging by Liverpool's figures. Of the nine away games in which Liverpool have conceded, seven (78%) have had over 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in eight (89%).
Clashes between the Premier League big six have continued to be high-scoring this season - 67% over 2.5 goals with both sides scoring in 84%. Last season both of those figures were 67%, which seems a good indication of where the true average might be at the moment.
Like Manchester City, Arsenal tend to hit higher scores once the opposition's barricades have been breached. Six of the eight home games in which they have scored this season have gone over 2.5 goals (both sides have scored in those same six games).
The odds seem in the backer's favour for Over 2.5 Goals in Arsenal v Liverpool at 1.738/11 and even on Both teams to Score at 1.68/13 .
Both outcomes are similarly priced for Manchester City v Liverpool at 1.748/11 for Over 2.5 Goals and 1.625/8 for Both teams to Score.
Recommended Bets
Back Arsenal to beat Liverpool @ 2.47/5
Back Arsenal v Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.738/11
Back Manchester City to beat Liverpool @ 1.910/11
Back Manchester City v Liverpool Over 2.5 goals @ 1.748/11
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Thursday, April 5, 2012
Against All Odds: Chelsea's tough test against lethal Benfica
Against All Odds 
/ Paul Robinson / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Oscar Cardozo is one of Benfica's attacking threats...
"With the likes of Oscar Cardozo, Bruno Cesar and Fabian Gaitan at their disposal, the Portugese side can be lethal when going forward... "
Chelsea take on Benfica in the second leg of their Champions League quarter final this evening and hold a 1-0 lead from the game in Portugal. With only a draw required to go through, Paul Robinson thinks that their win odds of [1.78] are a bit too short.
Chelsea have been revitalised since Roberto Di Matteo took over in March and have lost just the one match under his management. I wouldn't say it was so much his own greatness that has caused this change, more likely that the players prefer him to Andre Villas Boas and have decided to give 100 percent. There was no better proof of that than in the 4-1 win over Napoli in the last round and then the fantastic 1-0 defeat of Benfica in Portugal a fortnight ago.
In truth, Chelsea were fortunate to win the first leg, with the hosts dominating most of the relevant stats and the Blues will have to play better tonight if they want to set up a semi-final against Barcelona. They will also have to defend much better than they did on Saturday at Villa Park where they conceded two sloppy goals and nearly threw away the three points. Di Matteo does have an almost fully fit squad to choose from but my nagging doubt about them getting the win here is that a draw is good enough and Benfica have absolutely nothing to lose.
Benfica come into this one on the back of a major victory over Braga in their domestic league and the 90th minute winner from Bruno Cesar could well end up winning them the title. Jorge Jesus has got his side playing some great stuff at times this season and they dominated Manchester United home and away in the group phase of this competition. The Eagles weren't at their best in the first leg at Estádio da Luz, but they didn't deserve to lose and are more than capable of winning in London tonight.
Benfica have lost just the once on the road in Europe this season but they have scored at least one goal in every match and twice in their last three on the trot. With the likes of Oscar Cardozo, Bruno Cesar and Fabian Gaitan at their disposal, the Portugese side can be lethal when going forward and I fully expect them to give John Terry and co are troublesome evening.
The English press have been talking as if Chelsea are home and hosed in this one, but that's premature. Benfica are a top side and Chelsea are still below their form of recent seasons, despite being on a good. Taking into account the fact that they don't even have to win to go through, odds-on seems pretty skinny and I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Chelsea against Benfica @ [1.78]
Oldham travel to Brentford tonight for a clash in England's League One with under 2.5 goals trading at odds-on. Three of Oldham's last five away matches have been five goal thrillers though. Paul Robinson talks us through his lay of...
Sevilla take on Mallorca in Spain's La Liga tonight and are odds-on to take the three points. With just two wins in 10 at home though, in-form tipster Paul Robinson believes they are far too short a price and are...
Willem II travel to FC Oss this evening in Netherlands' Jupiler League and are odds-on to pick up the victory. The hosts will be no pushovers though and they've lost just the once in the last half dozen at home....
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Michael Vaughan: Lay the draw on another tough wicket
Test previews / Michael Vaughan / 01 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Jonathan Trott hit a magnificent century in the First Test but he failed to finish the job
"Sri Lankan wickets have a reputation for being flat and lifeless but they do get worse as the match goes on and with quality spinners on show, in particular Rangana Herath and Graeme Swann, wickets can fall pretty quickly later on in the game, especially with DRS in use."
Sri Lanka are 1-0 up and have already shown what a tough a side they are in their own conditions. Winning the toss will be crucial and puts the team batting first in pole position but the bet is that we'll end up getting a result, says Michael Vaughan.
England will ring the changes ahead of the Second Test, a match they need to win to level the Series and stop the rot. The first is an enforced one with Steve Finn the natural replacement for the injured Stuart Broad. Finn did well in the ODI matches against Pakistan, which were played on a similar sort of wicket to the one he'll find at Galle so there's no reason why he can't be successful again here. I'm also expecting Monty Panesar to give way with Tim Bresnan coming in for him. With all due respect to Monty, Bresnan is the far better fielder and batsman and will take Broad's place at eight with Finn probably batting down at eleven. Unlike in Colombo, there won't be a breeze in Galle so bowling quickly will be even more hard work than it was last week - a three-man pace attack looks a good move to me.
Samit Patel will keep his place in the team and will probably have to get through more overs than he did last week as the second spinner but I'll be interested to see whether he carries on batting at seven, or is promoted to come in at six. For me the obvious thing to have done in the First Test would have been for him to bat above Matt Prior rather than change a settled batting line-up; the move may have somewhat dented Patel's confidence whereas I'm not sure Prior would have cared either way where he batted. Something for Andrew Strauss to think about.
Winning the toss will be crucial again because days one and two will be by far the best time to bat and the wicket will most likely deteriorate on days four and five, just as it did in Colombo. The price of whoever wins the toss and bats first will come in on the back of that, no doubt about that. But because we obviously don't know who that will be, the smart bet is to lay the draw. Sri Lankan wickets have a reputation for being flat and lifeless but they do get worse as the match goes on and with quality spinners on show, in particular Rangana Herath and Graeme Swann, wickets can fall pretty quickly later on in the game, especially with DRS in use .That price of [2.9] has to go out at some stage and we'll surely be able to re-back it at 5.0 at some point in the game.
If the England batsmen want to have an idea of how to compile a century in sub-continental conditions then they should look at how Jonathan Trott did it in the second innings. It came off 250-odd balls and he needed to be at the crease for six or seven hours to get it . That's the sort of hard work you need to put in to get a tonne over here. You can't expect to score 100 off 150 balls by playing aggressively all the time like you can on some harder, quicker wickets. The sort you get in Australia for example. Trott is one of those players who gets a feel for a certain type of pitch and proceeds to cash in, just like he did last week. He now knows what his scoring areas are and when to play on the front or back foot. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets another big score and is the obvious, but smart, choice to be England first innings top batsman at around [4.0].
Mahela Jayawardene is another guy who is in a rich vein of form, himself a centurion in the First Test. He made it all look pretty easy whilst others appeared to be playing on a minefield. The skipper is the man to side ([4.5]) with as far as Sri Lanka are concerned.
A final word on Andrew Strauss. I'm really not sure what this nonsense is about with suggestions he should walk away from his job as England captain. Yes, he hasn't made a big score in a while and England have lost four Tests on the trot but these things happen to everyone and he hasn't become a bad batsman or captain overnight. If he feels it's the right thing to do to give someone else a chance, he will. But it's up to him to decide when that may be, no-one else.
3 pts Lay the draw @ [2.9]
1 pt Back Jonathan Trott to be England first innings top batsman @ [4.0]
1 pt Back Mahela Jayawardene to be Sri Lanka first innings top batsman @ [4.5]
It's difficult to understand how the Ian Bell who played magnificently in the first innings of this match is the same one who failed so miserably against Pakistan. He will be crucial if England are to come out on top...
Michael Vaughan tells us just why England find themselves in such a precarious situation at the moment and how Graeme Swann needs to strike early when Sri Lanka resume their innings on the morning of day three....
Sri Lanka skipper Mahela Jayawardene was, not for the first time, the thorn in England's side as the hosts moved on to 289/8. It will mostly be trial by spin when England bat tomorrow but how will they cope?...
Friday, February 24, 2012
Lee Dixon: Too tough to split Arsenal and Tottenham
Premier League / Lee Dixon / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Gareth Bale is one of many match-winners in this Spurs team
"A draw is a lively runner because home advantage negates to some extent the fact that Spurs are the better football team right here, right now."
A case could be made for all three outcomes in this match so the draw is the call at an attractive price. One thing is for sure: there will be no shortage of goals, says Lee Dixon.
I've written elsewhere that this is arguably the most important north London derby of Arsene Wenger's time at Arsenal. Others have had league titles at stake and they've all had bragging rights at stake. But this time it's almost Arsene's job that could be at stake.
Being out of both domestic Cups, the Premier League title race and now almost certainly the Champions League is bad enough. But if they were to lose at home to Tottenham to cap it all off, it's not too far-fetched to think that could be the point at which the fans finally turn on their manager in numbers.
This really is one of those games where you could make a case for all three outcomes. Spurs are the in-form side, high on confidence and won this fixture at White Hart Lane earlier in the campaign. If we're looking for a potential match-winner in Harry Redknapp's team we could list quite a few names: Rafael van der Vaart and Emmanuel Adebayor (though both are doubtful for the game at the time of writing), Gareth Bale, Luka Modric, even Louis Saha. But if we look at Arsenal's team, it's pretty much only Robin van Persie who you'd expect to take the game by the scruff of the neck and win it for his side. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has impressed over the past month but it's asking a lot of a youngster to come in and play a blinder in his first north London derby. And therein lies part of the problem for the Gunners.
But Arsenal are the home team and at this moment in time will see this as the biggest match they have left to play this season. That's the message Arsene will be sending his players and if they can't get fired up for this one, they never will.
A draw is a lively runner because home advantage negates to some extent the fact that Spurs are the better football team right here, right now.
It's the biggest price of the three and at [3.6] the stalemate is where my money will be.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 goals (1.74) is my strongest selection of the match. Opta tell us Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last 32 matches in all competitions against the Gunners so I think it's safe to assume one here is pretty much out of the question. The two games last season ended 3-2 and 3-3 and at White Hart Lane in October it was 2-1 so recent results also suggest we'll get goals.
From a tactical point of view, there's also the fact that both these teams are at their best when being positive and sending men forward. Momentum will shift throughout the game and there will be times when it's Arsenal playing on the break and times when it's Spurs. Either way, goals are very much on the cards.
To Score
Robin van Persie has served us well as a goalscorer bet in this column throughout the season but, that hat-trick against Blackburn aside, he hasn't looked quite as dangerous as he did a few weeks back. That said, I wouldn't really want to nominate anyone else in the Arsenal team!
With doubts over the fitness of Adebayor and van der Vaart I'm going with Gareth Bale, who has netted three times against Arsenal, his joint-highest tally against any opponent in the Premier League (along with Wigan). He's been given almost a free role in recent times and should have at least a couple of good chances to grab a goal.
Bookings Odds
Going low on bookings proved a shrew bet when Manchester United hosted Liverpool a couple of weeks ago.
No-one wanted to make the Luis Suarez situation any worse by doing something stupid and passionate though the game was, there wasn't too much by the way of indiscipline. At least not during the ninety minutes!
But I do fancy at least five bookings (or three and a red) here. I don't think we'll see ridiculously dangerous tackles or anything but there's pace on both sides and that's a recipe for the odd trip or pull of the shirt to break down an attack. At [1.65] that's my final bet of the game.
2 pts Back the draw @ [3.6]
3 pts Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.74]
1 pt back Gareth Bale to score @ [4.5]
2 pts Back nine points and above in the bookings odds market @ [1.65]
Wolves have met their deadline to hire a new manager before Saturday's trip to Newcastle, but the appointment has done little to calm relegation fears......
Gareth Purnell is normally against Aston Villa, but on Saturday he is fully behind them and expects them to get at least a point against Wigan. Here, he tells us why......
High-flying Manchester City play hosts to a struggling Blackburn side and it's extremely unlikely that we're going to have an upset on the cards here. Expect a City win and plenty of goals, says Lee Dixon....
Friday, September 2, 2011
Super League Betting: Tigers and Warriors face tough tasks
Super League / Stuart Jones / 01 September 2011 / Leave a Comment Castleford could struggle against Hull
"Beating Warrington away from home is a big ask in normal circumstances, never mind when you’ve spent the early part of the week celebrating new silverware."
This weekend's live Sky games will have a big impact on how the final play-off places unfold and Sunday's game between Warrington and Wigan could well decide who ends the season as Super League's Regular Season winners, writes Stuart Jones.
On current form Castleford are in serious danger of slipping out of the play-off places for the first time this season, and face a Hull side that will be keen to cement their own place amongst the last eight.
The Tigers have been woefully unlucky with injuries to their forwards and are still without several of their first-choice props, something that won't do them any favours when they come up against what is a monstrous Hull side.
The Castleford defence were at sixes and sevens against a poor Wakefield side in the latest round of Super League fixtures and, although they created far more chances, they still needed a late Dean Widders score to seal victory over there local rivals.
Hull recorded impressive wins over Catalans and Crusaders last month, with their 40-8 victory over a pretty much full strength French side as good a win as they have enjoyed all season.
With Mark O'Meley, Craig Fitzgibbon and Danny Houghton all expected to be fit for the trip to Castleford, the Airlie Birds ought to have way too much power for this depleted Tigers side,and look good value for giving up just a four and a half point start.
Opposing the winners of the Challenge Cup in the following week of Super League fixtures is unlikely have turned a loss in years gone by, especially if the winners were asked to take on the second best side in the league just eight days on from victory at Wembley.
Wigan may have been boosted by Sam Tomkins avoiding suspension, but beating Warrington away from home is a big ask in normal circumstances, never mind when you've spent the early part of the week celebrating new silverware.
The Warriors side were forced to work much harder than many people thought by Leeds last Saturday and Wigan's effort to hold such a sustained onslaught wil surely tell against a Wire side that have a fortnight to focus on beating the current league leaders.
Both Lee Mossop and Josh Charnley picked up injuries in the final and it's doubtful that Michael Maguire will risk that pair with the play-offs just around the corner. Ben Westwood and Adrian Morley are missing for the Wolves, but other than that, Tony Smith has a full strength and well-rested squad to choose from.
I expect Wigan's recent exploits to catch up with them at the Halliwell Jones and have to side with the Wolves giving up 2.5 pts.
Elsewhere, if the current handicap line for Bradford and Crusaders is anything to go by, I must have missed some signings the Bulls have made during a week's break. Bradford can't make the play-offs, still have no recognised hooker, and are missing Elliott Whitehead and Nick Scrutton. Their outright price of [1.16] is mystifying and the Crusaders look a good bet with 18.5 points start.
Recommended Bets
Back Hull -4.5pts at [1.91]
Back Warrington - 2.5pts at [1.91]
Back Crusaders +18.5 pts at [1.91]
Ralph Ellis was unimpressed by Sam Tomkins two-fingered salute to Leeds fans last weekend. However, the youngster's talent is not in doubt and he could be crucial to Wigan's chances of success this season....
Wigan are very short favourites but that's for a reason. They're the better side in all areas of the pitch and should overcome the handicap in the end, says Stuart Jones....
Bradford's problems look set to continue even if their opponents do have a cup final to prepare for, says Stuart Jones. Meanwhile, Saturday sees a west Yorkshire derby......
Friday, August 5, 2011
Champions League Betting: Arsenal dealt tough Udinese draw
Champions League / Michael Lintorn / 05 August 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Arsene Wenger will have to pit his wits against Udinese's Francesco Guidolin
"As is often the case in such situations, Udinese’s response to one of the most successful campaigns in their recent history was to flog their assets while their value was high."
History suggests that Arsenal always make it to the Champions League group stage at the very least, but they will have to do it the hard way this year after drawing Serie A overachievers Udinese.
The Gunners have been constant qualifiers since 1998-99 so will rightly be fancied to progress, however this will be one of their tougher tests, especially as the second leg is at the Stadio Friuli, where the Italian club went unbeaten against their division's top five last season.
Arsene Wenger's team stood to face Udinese, Rubin Kazan, Twente, FC Zurich or OB, so will feel hard done by landing one of the trickiest available opponents, though confidence can be gained from the Zebrette enduring an even more underwhelming summer than them.
As is often the case in such situations, Udinese's response to one of the most successful campaigns in their recent history was to flog their assets while their value was high. Alexis Sanchez joined Barcelona, Gokhan Inler headed to Napoli and Cristian Zapata made his way to Villarreal.
That and the dreadful record of Serie A sides in Europe in 2010-11 is why the second-time entrants, who reached the group stage in 2005-06, are [560.0] to take the trophy at the Allianz Arena next May, whereas Arsenal aren't too far shy of the frontrunners at [22.0].
2009-10 semi-finalists Lyon [[280.0]] also failed to receive the full benefit of their place among the seeds, landing a difficult collision with Rubin Kazan [[410.0]] that is made all the more challenging by their lack of action so far in the transfer market.
Benfica [[180.0]] will be favoured in their intriguing tie with Dutch title challengers Twente [[800.0]], whose continental stock rises with each passing season, having secured a second leg in Lisbon, while Bayern Munich [[22.0]] will be happy to have been paired with FC Zurich.
Smart bettors will look beyond the result, because there is some excellent value on offer in some of the other markets before the showdown at Wembley on Saturday night, writes James Eastham....
Want to know how Manchester United can stop Barcelona? Michael Cox assesses the likely patterns of play and selection conundrums ahead of Saturday's Champions League final....
Lionel Messi was named in a whopping 98% of teams as football fans around the world voted on the best hybrid line-up of FC Barcelona and Manchester United players, ahead of the Champions League Final between the two clubs....
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Malaysian Open Betting: Tough week ahead for Masters Champion
Golf Bets / Mike Norman / 12 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Kiradech Aphibarnrat kisses the SAIL Open trophy – his maiden Asian Tour title
"What was encouraging about that performance was that Davies wasn’t defending at the same venue, he was playing a course – two courses in fact – for the first time so his improvement in form can be taken as genuine."
Charl Schwartzel is making a quick reappearance after winning last week's US Masters, but Mike Norman believes it will be a tough week for the South African and two other Masters' participants.
Throughout this season Mike will give one selection in each of the Winner, Top Five Finish and Top Ten Finish markets every week a European Tour event is being played.
Punting wise, it hasn't been a great start for me on the European Tour this season but there have been a lot of low-key events to date with some very weak fields. The stronger the event, the more confidence I will have in my selections. Patience is definitely the key.
Although this week's Maybank Malaysian Open has another relatively weak feel to it, I at least go into the selection process on the back of a very good week at the US Masters. Two of my three selections - Luke Donald and Justin Rose - finished first and second in the Top European market, and I decided on Thursday night (as betting.betfair editor Joe Dyer, and Steve 'The Punter' Rawlings will testify) that I was going to back Charl Schwartzel at [46.0] in the Winner market.
Schwartzel is in Malaysia this week along with Rory McIlroy - the man who made the headlines for all the wrong reasons after his final round collapse - and world number one Martin Kaymer, but other than that it's a familiar looking line-up for the first leg of the 'Asian Swing'.
Schwartzel can be backed at [16.0], but of the star trio he is the one who I'd want to avoid most. He's never been a prolific winner outside of South Africa, and last week's exertions - the media side of it that is - will surely take its toll as the week goes on. Kaymer ([8.8]) missed the cut at Augusta for the fourth year running, and with his season being a bit stop-start so far, I definitely don't want to back him at his current price. It's anyone's guess as to how McIlroy ([13.0]) will respond this week, but he will get almost as much media attention as Schwartzel in the next few days and the whole saga might just get to his already scrambled brain.
Winner
It was at this same time last year that Rhys Davies was finishing in the top five seemingly for fun. That terrific run of form included a win at the Moroccan Open and the Welshman went very close to defending his crown a fortnight ago, eventually losing in a play-off to David Horsey. What was encouraging about that performance was that Davies wasn't defending at the same venue, he was playing a course - two courses in fact - for the first time so his improvement in form can be taken as genuine. He is available to back at [36.0] to triumph this week and he is worth a punt without doubt. He proved last year that he is a very consistent player when in form, and the fact that he finished in a tie for third in this tournament - at this venue - in 2010 augers well.
Top Five Finish
A few weeks ago I vowed personally to leave Stephen Gallacher go un-backed for a while - he's a player that I can never seem to catch right. But a few things have changed my mind. The first is the fact that Schwartzel was another player that I could never catch right, but that changed last week (a good omen perhaps), and the second is Gallacher's price. When I backed Gallacher two weeks running last month he was around the [20.0] mark, now he can be backed at [80.0] to win - and at [14.0] in this market - against similar type players. His Gulf Swing form is hard to ignore (three top-12 finishes), so a missed cut last time out shouldn't have put punters off as much as it appears to have done.
Top Ten Finish
My selection in this market is a complete stab in the dark purely and simply because I wanted an Asian-born player on my side. But the wonderfully-named Kiradech Aphibarnrat is no long shot at [7.4]. The 21-year-old finished in a tie for third - alongside Davies - here last year, and after numerous close finishes he finally won his maiden Asian Tour title when he triumphed at the SAIL Open just three weeks ago. You can do much worse than back a recent winner, a player with proven course form, and someone who knows the culture so well; and in Aphibarnrat you'll also have an extremely enjoyable character to follow.
Recommended Bets
Back Rhys Davies at [36.0] in Winner market
Back Stephen Gallacher at [14.0] in Top Five Finish market
Back Kiradech Aphibarnrat at [7.4] in Top Ten Finish market
Total pts bet this season (one pt bet per selection): 30
Total pts returned: 10.75
2011 European Tour season Profit/Loss: -19.25
It's another low key affair on the European Tour this week so Mike Norman is pinning his hopes on a trio of Spanish players, two of which have been very consistent in 2011....
The European Tour visits Spain this week for a tournament hosted by loveable veteran Miguel Angel Jimenez, but Mike Norman finds reasons to oppose both Jimenez and his classy countryman Alvaro Quiros....
There's a new venue for the European Tour this week but Mike Norman is not put off by having no course form to go on, he's been studying hard he tells us....
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