Premier League 
/ Lee Dixon / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Gareth Bale is one of many match-winners in this Spurs team
"A draw is a lively runner because home advantage negates to some extent the fact that Spurs are the better football team right here, right now."
A case could be made for all three outcomes in this match so the draw is the call at an attractive price. One thing is for sure: there will be no shortage of goals, says Lee Dixon.
I've written elsewhere that this is arguably the most important north London derby of Arsene Wenger's time at Arsenal. Others have had league titles at stake and they've all had bragging rights at stake. But this time it's almost Arsene's job that could be at stake.
Being out of both domestic Cups, the Premier League title race and now almost certainly the Champions League is bad enough. But if they were to lose at home to Tottenham to cap it all off, it's not too far-fetched to think that could be the point at which the fans finally turn on their manager in numbers.
This really is one of those games where you could make a case for all three outcomes. Spurs are the in-form side, high on confidence and won this fixture at White Hart Lane earlier in the campaign. If we're looking for a potential match-winner in Harry Redknapp's team we could list quite a few names: Rafael van der Vaart and Emmanuel Adebayor (though both are doubtful for the game at the time of writing), Gareth Bale, Luka Modric, even Louis Saha. But if we look at Arsenal's team, it's pretty much only Robin van Persie who you'd expect to take the game by the scruff of the neck and win it for his side. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has impressed over the past month but it's asking a lot of a youngster to come in and play a blinder in his first north London derby. And therein lies part of the problem for the Gunners.
But Arsenal are the home team and at this moment in time will see this as the biggest match they have left to play this season. That's the message Arsene will be sending his players and if they can't get fired up for this one, they never will.
A draw is a lively runner because home advantage negates to some extent the fact that Spurs are the better football team right here, right now.
It's the biggest price of the three and at [3.6] the stalemate is where my money will be.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 goals (1.74) is my strongest selection of the match. Opta tell us Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last 32 matches in all competitions against the Gunners so I think it's safe to assume one here is pretty much out of the question. The two games last season ended 3-2 and 3-3 and at White Hart Lane in October it was 2-1 so recent results also suggest we'll get goals.
From a tactical point of view, there's also the fact that both these teams are at their best when being positive and sending men forward. Momentum will shift throughout the game and there will be times when it's Arsenal playing on the break and times when it's Spurs. Either way, goals are very much on the cards.
To Score
Robin van Persie has served us well as a goalscorer bet in this column throughout the season but, that hat-trick against Blackburn aside, he hasn't looked quite as dangerous as he did a few weeks back. That said, I wouldn't really want to nominate anyone else in the Arsenal team!
With doubts over the fitness of Adebayor and van der Vaart I'm going with Gareth Bale, who has netted three times against Arsenal, his joint-highest tally against any opponent in the Premier League (along with Wigan). He's been given almost a free role in recent times and should have at least a couple of good chances to grab a goal.
Bookings Odds
Going low on bookings proved a shrew bet when Manchester United hosted Liverpool a couple of weeks ago.
No-one wanted to make the Luis Suarez situation any worse by doing something stupid and passionate though the game was, there wasn't too much by the way of indiscipline. At least not during the ninety minutes!
But I do fancy at least five bookings (or three and a red) here. I don't think we'll see ridiculously dangerous tackles or anything but there's pace on both sides and that's a recipe for the odd trip or pull of the shirt to break down an attack. At [1.65] that's my final bet of the game.
2 pts Back the draw @ [3.6]
3 pts Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.74]
1 pt back Gareth Bale to score @ [4.5]
2 pts Back nine points and above in the bookings odds market @ [1.65]
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