"Arsenal have conceded just two goals in nine domestic home games"
Back an Arsenal clean sheet at 2.915/8
Michael Cox and Alan Thompson preview the intriguing Saturday afternoon FA Cup showdown between two sides desperate to end their ongoing trophy droughts...
Arsenal v Everton
Saturday 12:45, ITV1.
Match Odds: Arsenal 1.875/6, Everton 5.24/1, The Draw 3.711/4.
Following Arsenal's demoralising defeat at Stoke City last week, and their probable elimination from the European Cup this coming Tuesday against Bayern Munich, the FA Cup represents the Gunners' best chance of success this season. Everton are a dangerous opponent, but having already overcome Tottenham and Liverpool at the Emirates on their way to this Sixth Round stage, Arsener Wenger's side should be confident of another good result.
Wenger's team selection is unpredictable here, particularly in attacking positions. Ahead of the second leg against Bayern, it's not impossible that Wenger will rest a couple of players in preparation for that game - while they're 2-0 down, they've made impressive (if futile) second leg comebacks against Milan and Bayern in the past two seasons, and Wenger's major ambition remains a European Cup victory. However unlikely progression to the quarter-final in that competition may be, Wenger will have one eye on Tuesday night.
However, it's difficult to work out Arsenal's first-choice XI at the moment anyway. Mesut Ozil was left out of the squad for the win against Sunderland because of a slight injury, then was only on the bench at Stoke. Lukas Podolski has been in and out of the side, Santi Cazorla not quite at his best, Tomas Rosicky can't play every game, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain still feels like a bonus rather than a regular
A trio of Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ozil and Cazorla is most likely, but don't rule out a surprise selection - perhaps even Serge Gnabry.
Martinez has generally used the FA Cup to play a couple of outsiders, and while the Spaniard is gunning for a second consecutive success in this competition, it's worth remembering he only truly took the FA Cup seriously with Wigan at this stage last year - coincidentally, with a win at Everton.
He's likely to rest first-choice goalkeeper Tim Howard and play Joel Robles instead - he conceded four on his last visit to the Emirates. Ross Barkley has been left out recently but will probably start against a side he's previously played well against, while Romelu Lukaku should return to the starting line-up, having made an instant impact as a substitute at West Ham last week, following a month-long absence. John Stones will continue if Phil Jagielka, as expected, misses out through injury.
Arsenal must find the right balance between midfield dominance, and getting men up in support of Olivier Giroud. Everton's previous performance at the Emirates, a 1-1 draw, was extremely impressive - they pressed high up the pitch and dominated possession inside the Arsenal half. Wenger will be keen to play as many 'passers' as possible to guard against this, but his side's best attacking moves in recent weeks have come when midfield runners have broken beyond the striker.
Arsenal lack genuine pace in behind the opposition without Theo Walcott, and therefore Everton might feel content to defend high up the pitch, pushing Arsenal away from their goal.
Everton will attempt to get the ball forward quickly to Lukaku, assuming he starts upfront - if not, expect Steven Naismith to work the channels more, and make interesting runs in behind the defence. Arsenal have a nice balance between Laurent Koscielny's pace and Per Mertesacker's positional qualities, however, and should be able to cope with the Belgian alone.
The problem will come from deeper, with right-sided Kevin Mirallas charging in behind, Steven Pienaar drifting inside and Barkley collecting the ball between the lines. Barkley varies his position excellently and find space between the lines and will cause ex-Everton midfield Mikel Arteta serious difficulties. He was twice superb in this fixture during 2013, and will be a goalscoring threat.
In the sides' previous meeting, a 1-1 draw, Everton pushed their full-backs extremely high up the pitch, with James McCarthy and Gareth Barry remaining very deep to form a defensive 'square' with the centre-backs, guarding against counter-attacks. Arsenal's wide midfielders must track back and protect their full-backs, or else Arsenal will become overloaded down the wings.
Arsenal's defensive record in domestic games at the Emirates has been excellent, however. Since Gerard Deolofeu's excellent equaliser in this fixture three months ago, Arsenal have conceded just two goals in nine domestic home games: a penalty from Steven Gerrard and a fine long-range strike from Sunderland's Emanuele Giaccherini. I'll back another Arsenal clean sheet at 2.915/8, but it's difficult to judge their level of attacking threat with an uncertain midfield selection.
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Back an Arsenal clean sheet at 2.915/8
When the Gunners have played at home against sides in the top half of the league this season, they are undefeated (W3:D3), conceding only one goal though that did come against Everton in a 1-1 draw. All six games produced an under 2.5 goal result. In their last six home games they have scored 10 and conceded only once (Sunderland 4-1), and their only home league defeat remains the opening day shocker 1-3 against Aston Villa. Arsenal have made the most of home advantage in the FA Cup this season, eliminating Spurs (2-0), Coventry (4-0) and Everton’s neighbours Liverpool (2-1) in the 5th round.
Everton haven’t managed to beat any of the sides above them in the league thus far and from their five attempts they have scored twice while conceding 10. Their current away form doesn’t inspire much confidence either, no wins on the road in 2014 (five games). A boost for Everton will be the return of Romelu Lukaku, who got the only goal of the game last week, coming off the bench to hit the winner against West Ham.
March is season-defining for Arsenal - after this game they face Spurs in the league then Chelsea away, followed by Man City at the Emirates. In between the London derbies, they have to go to the Allianz Arena with a first leg 2-0 deficit to try and overcome. For me the FA Cup is their only realistic chance of a long overdue trophy and therefore I will be backing them to win this by dutching 2-0 @ 10 and 2-1 @ 9.6 giving approx dutched odds of 5.
