Against All Odds: Bilbao to finish with a flourish

"Now that Manolo Jiménez’s side are clear of the drop zone it will be interesting to see if they still play with the same intensity and desire that they did in their last two at La Romareda."

Lay Zaragoza v Athletic Bilbao @ 1.865/6 

Zaragoza are odds-on for their Spanish Primera Division clash with Athletic Bilbao this evening but Paul Robinson thinks that those who tune in to Sky Sports Interactive at 18:00 could be in for a surprise result.

Real Zaragoza have climbed out of the relegation zone thanks to two wins and a draw in their last three. They recorded back to back victories at home over Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano before earning a point at Levante last time. That run came just at the right time and it ended an incredible spell of 15 without victory.

Now that Manolo Jiménez's side are clear of the drop zone it will be interesting to see if they still play with the same intensity and desire that they did in their last two at La Romareda. It's hard to ignore their dreadful form in 2013 and they aren't at full strength due to injuries and suspensions - the loss of Glenn Loovens in particular being a blow.

Athletic Bilbao haven't been able to hit the dizzy heights of last season where they reached the Europa League final and came a respectable 10th in La Liga. They just haven't been able to score the goals that they did last term and even Fernando Llorente has only managed four in all competitions. 

Nevertheless, Marcelo Bielsa's men are four unbeaten and they won their previous match last weekend. The Lions are in 14th place so with just three games to go they don't have anything to play for as such, although given their poor season thus far, they'll at least want to finish on a high. They've drawn their last two away from San Mamés Stadium and they should have enough quality to keep that undefeated record going today.

Zaragoza are very short for a team in their predicament, so at around the 1.865/6 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Zaragoza v Athletic Bilbao @ 1.865/6 

Wagered: 138 pts
Returned: 126.31 pts
P/L – 11.69 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Home and Away: Brann have enough fibre to finish Start

Bet 1: Brann (HOME) @ 1.95

Bet 2: Hammarby (AWAY) @ 2.3

Jonno Turner wraps up warm and takes us to Scandanavia for two selections today...

We're off to Norway for our first selection of the day - as Brann host Start in the Eliteserien, looking to build on a steady start to the campaign which sees them in fifth place after seven outings.

Rune Skarsfjord's side line up for this one having won four of their last five in all competitions - and three clean sheets from their last four league games on their own patch shows just how dominant the Bergen club have been of late.

That makes four straight wins in the league on their own patch, and they'll be keen to continue that momentum in this clash, as they welcome a Start side which, ironically, hasn't really got going yet.

Two losses and a draw from Mons Ivar Mjelde's side's last three games leaves them sitting in 11th place, and they'll be keen to get some points on the board quickly in order to climb the division.

Last year's 1. Division winners have recorded just two wins from their opening seven league outings, and will know that a continuation of that form for any length of time could see them heading back to where they came from at the first attempt.

And that makes five league away encounters without a win - a run which stretches back into October of last season - and a slump which the Kristiansand club will be desperate to arrest.

The 14 goals shipped during that run will ring alarm bells in the away camp, and it will be interesting to see how that leaky defence copes with a Brann side full of confidence and momentum on their own patch.

Bet 1: Brann (HOME) @ 1.95

Switching our attentions to Sweden now, where Hammarby travel to IK Brage, aiming to secure their third win in four games.

The visitors sit fifth in the Superettan after a bright start to the campaign, and go into this clash having lost just one of their last five league outings on the road - a run which will give them much confidence.

In the bigger picture, 11 undefeated from a dozen clashes home and away shows that Gregg Berhalter has made his side very difficult to beat - and the Johanneshov club will be keen to maintain that form here.

Hosts Brage line up for this one in miserable form having lost their last three on the bounce, and they sit in the relegation play-off places after five outings.

Conny Karlsson's side will be desperate to stop that rot, but no wins from five at the Domnarvsvallen suggests that they are far from formidable on their own patch, and no clean sheets in three points to a leaky defence.

Hammarby have won four and drawn one of their last five meetings with Brage, and I expect them to take maximum points from this one, too.

Bet 2: Hammarby (AWAY) @ 2.3

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Champions League: Ruthless Bayern Munich to finish off Arsenal

"So dominant have Bayern been in the Champions League in the current campaign that they have been winning both at half-time and full-time in five of their last seven matches in the competition. Back them to do the same on Wednesday at 2.89/5."

Bayern Munich will show Arsenal no mercy despite their 3-1 advantage from the first leg, while Porto's defensive resolve will mean a low scoring encounter at Malaga, says European football expert James Horncastle as he previews Wednesday night's Champions League games

Bayern Munich v Arsenal
Kick Off: 19:45
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2

"It will be difficult, but let's try to make the impossible, possible," Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger said, after his side's 3-1 defeat to Bayern Munich at the Emirates last month in the first leg of their last 16 Champions League tie. 

Just how difficult is clear from the history of this competition. Since the European Cup began only seven teams have managed to successfully overturn a first leg defeat at home. They are Milan in 1955, Ajax in 1969, Nottingham Forest in 1980, Steaua Bucharest in 1994, Ajax once again in 1996 and Inter in 2011. 

It's a staggeringly low number and, as if any further confirmation were needed, amply demonstrates the size of the task facing Arsenal at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday night. The Exchange understandably has them at 38.037/1 to qualify. 

Arsenal must hope for the kind of blackout Bayern suffered in October when they lost 3-1 to BATE Borisov, a result that looks like an aberration within the context of the rest of their record-breaking season. 

It did look for a while as though they might slip up on Saturday. Twice Bayern fell behind at home to Fortuna Dusseldorf. And if Wenger and his players were watching, which seems likely given they didn't play this weekend and are well-rested for the trip to Munich, then they would have been encouraged right up until the 74th minute. For that's when Franck Ribery equalised again and Dusseldorf's belief in an unlikely win ended. Jerome Boateng would get the winner four minutes from time to seal Bayern's fifteenth straight victory.

It all must have been pretty soul-destroying for those Arsenal players who did perhaps tune in. This Bayern, it seems, are never beaten. 

"Last season we would have lost this kind of match," goalkeeper Manuel Neuer said. "Our cohesion is exceptional." 

That doesn't bode well for Arsenal who wish to replicate the second leg showing they put on against Milan this time last season when they won 3-0 at the Emirates and improbably threatened to take the tie to extra-time after a 4-0 first leg defeat at San Siro. Bayern, as Neuer alluded to, have a resilience about them, however, a mental strength that makes the prospect of this happening distinctly unlikely. 

They've lost just once at home all season and have never conceded more than two in a game. So dominant have they been in the Champions League in the current campaign that they have been winning both at half-time and full-time in five of their last seven matches in the competition. Back them to do the same on Wednesday at 2.89/5. 

Recommended Bet: Bayern Munich/Bayern Munich in the HT/FT market at 2.89/5

Malaga v Porto
Kick Off: 19:45
TV: Live on Sky Sports 4

Elsewhere in Europe things are much more delicately poised between Malaga and Porto. This is certainly the more intriguing of Wednesday night's ties. Porto take a 1-0 lead to the Rosaleda and might be made to regret not making more of the possession they had at the Dragao. Joao Moutinho's goal, the one that separates them, should have been ruled out for offside too. 

"Our first goal was to win. Our second goal was not to concede," Porto coach Vitor Pereira said after the first leg. "But after the great quality match that we played from the first to the last minute, I think we deserved a second goal. I'm not completely satisfied in that we couldn't get a goal to make it 2-0; that would have been a fairer reflection of what happened on the pitch."

Alas, it wasn't to be and Malaga were let off the hook. "The scoreline is one we can turn around," insisted coach Manuel Pellegrini. "Returning to our own stadium we will be confident of reversing the situation."

Malaga have yet to lose at home in this their maiden Champions League campaign. Their record stands at three wins and one draw.  

That said, they haven't won any of their last four games in all competitions, scoring just the once. Their potent left-hand side, crucial to the team's balance, is no longer what it once was following the sale of Nacho Monreal to Arsenal and the injury suffered by Eliseu.

Attacking isn't coming as easy as did earlier in the season. In Pellegrini's words Malaga "played very badly offensively" in Oporto. "We wanted to be offensive," he said, "but Porto wouldn't allow us to be." 

Star players Isco and Joaquin were rested at the weekend. Porto, however, will trust in their ability to go to the Rosaleda, get an away goal and preserve their advantage. They've kept seven clean sheets from nine Champions League matches this season and can be backed to record another one at 3.412/5. Under 1.5 goals also has an attraction at 3.259/4.

Recommended Bet: Under 1.5 Goals at 3.259/4

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Scarbrough Stakes Result: Powerful finish seals it for Sole

"All going well he will go for the Abbaye if the ground is right, and then on to Hong Kong as Johnny thinks he will be perfect to race over there."

Irish raider Sole Power produced a spectacular burst of speed to win the Scarbrough Stakes...

Slightly uneasy in the market due to concerns that the ground had gone against Edward Lynam's star, Sole Power, sent off at a Betfair SP 3.7, produced a startling turn of foot to register a comfortable success.

Always travelling strongly, it had briefly looked as if Sole Power might struggle to get a run, but once the gap appeared he quickened sharply to beat Jwala with Excelette back in third.

Lynam said: "I don't think anyone could say he didn't deserve that. Anyone who was brave enough to back a Group 1 horse in a Listed race at 11-4 has done very well.

"He came back from York (this year's Nunthorpe) very buzzy for whatever reason. He got too much daylight that day and it didn't do him any good. It's a long time until the Abbaye and Hong Kong, so we wanted to get another run into him.

"He was quite keen today - Johnny said he was going to be very cool on him and he certainly was. The horse has a very good turn of foot and all going well he will go for the Abbaye if the ground is right, and then on to Hong Kong as Johnny thinks he will be perfect to race over there."

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Follow The Money: Back Untold Melody for fighting finish

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 03 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

FTM are backing one at Southwell (above)

"Untold Melody has received strong market support, in to [1.66] from [2.34]."

Today's movers come from the meetings at Southwell, Fontwell and Sedgefield.

We start at Southwell in the 14:20 where Untold Melody has received strong market support, in to [1.66] from [2.34]. Kevin Ryan's charge is having her fourth run today and has shown improvement in all her three runs, culminating in a second at Caterick over five furlongs. This three-year-old bay filly is having her first run on the fibresand and is returning from a break. The step back up to six furlongs looks sure to suit and, provided she handles the surface, the strong market support suggests she'll be fighting them off at the finish.

We got to Fontwell for our negative in the 15:40 Maiden Hurdle where Ms Cordelia has been a steady drifter from [2.6] out to [3.6]. This David Pipe trained filly is having her second run over hurdles, and her second run in this country, having previously run on the flat in France, where she notched up two wins. This four-year-old came second on her last run at Catterick on good to soft ground, where she was a beaten favourite. There is a step up in trip today from two miles to two miles two-and-a-half furlongs, and given that she was tiring at the finish at Catterick, this could cause her to struggle today. This step up in trip combined with firmer ground suggests she may be worth taking on.

Our final selection comes in the 17:30 at Sedgefield where we have seen solid market support for Fame Again who has moved from a high of [14.0] in to [4.9]. Trained by the shrewd Mick Easterby, the selection ran well on his debut at Wetherby in February without ever troubling the winner that day. He was turned out quickly, just seven days later, at Catterick and ran a poor race, but the feeling was that the race may have come to soon. He has now been given a nice break, with today's conditions expected to be more suitable to those encountered previously. Market support in National Hunt Flat Races is always worth noting, and such a confident move suggests Fame Again is worth backing.

Recommended Bets
Back Untold Melody @ [1.66] in the 14:20 @ Southwell
Lay Ms Cordelia @ [3.6] in the 15:40 @ Fontwell
Back Fame Again @ [4.9] in the 17:30 @ Sedgefield

The Follow The Money team have been watching the markets all morning to bring you this blast of racing bets...

Two backs and one lay based on price movements on Betfair's price markets: one from Ascot and two from Doncaster are what we can look forward to......

Two backs and one lay courtesy of our workaholic friends from Follow the Money. All based on price movements as per usual....

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Liverpool will finish in the top four

Premier League / The Betfair Contrarian / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

My main men. Luis Suarez, Kenny Dalglish and Andy Carroll will be doing their best to get Liverpool in next seasons' Champions League

"The greatest proof that Liverpool have nothing to fear and plenty of time to make up the ground required with a dozen fixtures remaining is that in their last four outings alone they have already recovered six points, having been 12 points shy of the Champions League positions following their 2-2 draw with Everton at Anfield on January 16."

Liverpool are a team on the up and look set for a Top Six finish when a relegation battle looked a more likely scenario earlier on in the season. But the Betfair Contrarian is pushing the boat out even more and predicting a Champions League spot for the Reds...

The Betfair Contrarian: Why Liverpool will finish in the top four

Four weeks ago, the Contrarian ignored Kenny Dalglish's losses to Manchester United and Blackpool in his first two games back in charge at Anfield to recommend backing Liverpool to finish in the top six at [3.9]. Five matches and 13 points later, the Reds are in to [1.42] in that market and progressing at an even faster rate than the notorious champion of the underdog expected. So swiftly in fact, that he is now tipping them to qualify for the Champions League at [7.0]. Here's why...

The gap is only six points...

A team six points behind the Premier League leaders at this point in the season having played a game more might have their title credentials doubted - Manchester City find themselves in a similar position now - but it's not a decisive margin in the battle for a top-four finish, as has been proven frequently in recent campaigns. Arsenal recovered a four-point deficit with just four left to play when battling with Tottenham in 2005-06, while they trailed Aston Villa by seven points on this date two years ago. Liverpool also have experience of chasing, having clawed their way back from seventh at the start of February 2008 to eventually end up a whopping 11 points clear of fifth-placed Everton.

...and they have already recovered six

The greatest proof that Liverpool have nothing to fear and plenty of time to make up the ground required with a dozen fixtures remaining is that in their last four outings alone they have already recovered six points, having been 12 points shy of the Champions League positions following their 2-2 draw with Everton at Anfield on January 16.

Liverpool have an undaunting run-in

Chelsea have a game in hand on Liverpool but there's no guarantee that they'll pick up any points against table-topping Manchester United, who they still have to face twice. Tottenham have a game in hand too, however the worry for them is that just one of their final 13 matches is against a club placed between eighth and 14th, the ones likely to have the least to play for in the closing weeks, and therefore more favourable opponents than those fighting relegation, of which Spurs clash with seven to Liverpool's four. Encouragingly, Dalglish's side meet only four of the ten teams that have already beaten them in their closing 12 ties, and each of those encounters takes place at Anfield.

The Suarez and Carroll partnership is still to come

Liverpool defeated two top-half Premier League sides last week without departed top goalscorer Fernando Torres and big-money January acquisitions Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll in the starting line-up. A key reason for that success is the defensive improvement under Dalglish, with four successive clean sheets obtained, and Raul Meireles in form, but it begs the question that if they can achieve so much without a proven goal-getter, how much better will they get with two? Carroll's price tag can be questioned, yet he has scored more goals this season than any top-flight player besides Dimitar Berbatov and Carlos Tevez. This despite an injury absence and playing for a promoted team, while Suarez netted 49 times for Ajax last year, showing it was no fluke by delivering at the World Cup too.

They did the double over Chelsea

How about this for a promising omen? Since Roman Abramovich took over at Chelsea in 2003, rapidly turning them from top-six regulars that never looked capable of finishing first into regular title contenders, Liverpool had only once done the double over the Blues - in 2008-09 - and that was the only one of the first seven seasons of Abramovich's reign in which the Reds outperformed their west London rivals. Last weekend's 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge allowed them to replicate the feat.

Liverpool are a team on the up and look set for a Top Six finish when a relegation battle looked a more likely scenario earlier on in the season. But the Betfair Contrarian is pushing the boat out even more...

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