Champions League: Back Bayern to go to the Nou Camp and win

"It doesn't bode well for Barcelona. Nor did their performance at Athletic Bilbao on Saturday. Like in the second leg of their quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain, they required Lionel Messi to come off the bench to rescue them from a goal down with a moment of inspiration."

Bayern to win 3.9n/a

James Horncastle thinks Bayern can complete an historic double over Barcelona when the two teams meet at the Nou Camp on Wednesday night...

"There is a lot of catching up to do. I don't think it has ever happened in the history of the Champions League but we will do our best," Barcelona assistant coach Jordi Roura said after watching his team receive a 4-0 "drubbing," as Gerard Pique called it, from Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena. 

Roura's instinct was correct. In the 155 cases of a team losing the first leg away from home by a 4-0 scoreline in this competition since the 1970-71 season, no one has ever contrived to go through. True, there's always a first time, but considering the state Barca are currently in and how formidable their opponents are, a miracle looks unlikely.

Barca, it must be said, have made a habit of launching successful comebacks this season. 

After losing 2-0 to Milan at San Siro in the Round of 16, they then won 4-0 at the Camp Nou. That would be enough to take things to extra-time on Wednesday night and serves as an example of what they're still capable of. 

Bayern, at the same stage of the competition, also displayed a complacency that might give Barcelona a feint hope. After beating Arsenal 3-1 at the Emirates, they found themselves 2-0 down at the Allianz Arena. Laurent Koscielny's 85th minute goal made the close of that game unnecessarily nervy.  

You suspect Bayern will have learned from that experience. So dominant were they in the first leg, imposing themselves on Barca, cowing them into submission with their physicality like no one else in the last four and a half years, that while they're likely to still be respectful, you'd think they're unlikely to be scared on taking the field at the Camp Nou. 

Bayern won again at the weekend to set a new record points-total in the Bundesliga. Freiburg were beaten 1-0 even though Bastian Schweinsteiger, Philipp Lahm and Thomas Müller were in the stands and Arjen Robben, Dante, Manuel Neuer and David Alaba left on the bench. Mario Gomez and Frank Ribery played the final 15 minutes and Javi Martinez the last six. All are fresh for the trip to Catalunya. 

It doesn't bode well for Barcelona. Nor did their performance at Athletic Bilbao on Saturday. Like in the second leg of their quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain, they required Lionel Messi to come off the bench to rescue them from a goal down with a moment of inspiration. Eight minutes after replacing Xavi he equalised with a sensational goal. Alexis Sanchez then gave Barcelona the lead, but they couldn't hold on. Ander Herrera levelled in the 90th minute.

Barcelona are 1.9620/21 to win on Wednesday night. Considering the vibe around them at the moment and how good their opponents are, that seems flattering. Sure, Bayern haven't won at the Camp Nou since the group stages back in 1998 when they came back from behind to beat the hosts 2-1 with goals from Alexander Zickler and Hasan Salihamidzic. But their first victory there in 15 years appears closer, certainly than it did in 2009, when they lost 4-0 during the height of the Pep Guardiola era. 

Barcelona aren't as good as they were then and Bayern are better. Back them to win at 3.9n/a. 

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Bayern to win 3.9n/a

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Champions League: Lewandowski has world at his feet

"If the papers are to believed, he could well be heading the same way as his outgoing teammate Mario Gotze to Dortmund's biggest rivals Bayern Munich."

After Robert Lewandowski's incredible virtuoso display sinks Real Madrid, Christian Crowther assesses the hottest number nine on the planet...

It's not often that someone scores a hat-trick against Real Madrid in the Champions League. Well, not ever in fact, until Wednesday night that is.

Borussia Dortmund's Robert Lewandowski let the handbrake off in spectacular style, firing in a hat-trick before smashing in a fourth from the spot to cap off one of the most unforgettable number nine performances in recent memory.

Ruud Gullit in the Sky Sports studio could hardly contain his excitement over the hat-trick goal in his analysis. That's hardly surprising given that the Pole displayed extraordinarily nifty footwork before unleashing a thunderbolt into the roof of the net.

Incidentally, those four goals now move Lewandowski within two of current Champions League top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo, with the former 5.24/1 to overhaul Ronny, who is available at 1.232/9.

It is worth noting that Real Madrid's superstar has notched ten in his last ten appearances at the Bernabeu, though Dortmund's ace has scored five in eight appearances against Bayern Munich - including a hat-trick in last season's German Cup final - should they meet in the final.

After such a dynamic first-leg showing from Jurgen Klopp's young team - average age just 23 against Madrid - their price of 1.21/5 to qualify for Wembley seems fairly safe and their odds of 3.1511/5 for glory even more tempting.

So what comes next for Dortmund's destroyer? If the papers are to believed, he could well be heading the same way as his outgoing teammate Mario Gotze to Dortmund's biggest rivals Bayern Munich.

Unfortunately for Dortmund, Lewandowski comes to the end of his current contract in 2014 and, after a performance of such magnitude, the striker's agent will surely be dreaming of what super yacht he'll be ordering off the back of a summer move.

The player himself has refused to put pen to paper with his current club and right now, he could pick anywhere on the planet.

The centre forward has been linked with Manchester United in recent seasons, but rumours in Germany suggest that the red of Bayern is his preference.

After losing Gotze to Bayern's advances, this would represent a real hammer blow for Dortmund, though we've already seen how capable Klopp's powers of rebuilding are after they lost Nuri Sahin and Shinji Kagawa in the previous two pre-seasons.

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Champions League Betting: Should Wembley already be preparing for a German party?

Following a sensational week of Champions League football, Callum Davis looks at the fallout from the first legs of the semi-inals and casts an eye over the odds for the eventual winner of the tournament.

In a Champions League week which few football fans would have foreseen, Real Madrid and Barcelona find themselves facing the exit door after two resounding defeats to German opponents. The combined score from the two ties stands at 8-1 to Germany on aggregate, and the prospect of an all-German final looks the most likely outcome. Surely there's no way back for either of the Spanish sides?

Barcelona look to be all but out of the running for the final, and although they have a team of world beaters with the potential to perform miracles, the task looks too difficult given the lacklustre form of Lionel Messi and the quality of their opponents.

Bayern have been described as the most in-form side in Europe this season and Barca's inability to create any meaningful chances in the Allianz Arena will not have done anything to persuade punters that they should be backing them to qualify at the price of 2322/1.

In contrast, Real Madrid's away goal gives them the faintest of hopes of being able to overturn their 3 goal deficit and progress through to the final. Madrid are 1.594/7 to win on the night but it will take more than mere victory to ensure that the reigning Spanish champions progress to Wembley, and they are priced out at 12.5n/a to go on and win the final.

With Madrid's firepower up front, featuring the tournament's top goalscorer, Cristiano Ronaldo, the issue will not be whether they are able to score the goals required, but more whether they will be able to stop Dortmund, and Lewandowski in particular, from adding to the aggregate score and putting the tie to bed. You can back Madrid to qualify for the final at odds of 5.85/1.

An all-German final is now priced at 1.241/4 after both sides registered such resounding victories with the superior performances to boot. Bayern are currently favourites to win Europe's biggest prize at 1.715/7 while Dortmund are currently trading at 3.1511/5. Despite the fact that Bayern have run away with the Bundesliga this season, I'd expect an all-German final to be much more closely contested than the current odds suggest. 

Bayern have the edge on Dortmund in their head-to-head record this season with two wins and one draw in league and cup competitions. Saying that, all three of the previous match ups took place in the Allianz Arena so a prospective clash at Wembley may not necessarily adhere to the form guide. 

Dortmund's dominant display against Madrid was arguably more impressive than Bayern's the previous evening, with Graeme Souness lauding the game as the greatest single Champions League showing he has ever witnessed. The Dortmund team have a youthful energy and abundance of pace which the older legs of Bayern will surely be wary of. If any team will be able to match Bayern Munich's work ethic and tenacity it will be Jurgen Klopp's Dortmund side and I will be having a punt on them to win the Champions League at 3.1511/5.

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Champions League Opta Stats: Draxler to see Schalke through

"Galatasaray have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 away games in the Champions League."
Recommended Bet: Back Julian Draxler to score @ 3.9n/a

Using Opta's insights, Christian Crowther provides some tips to go with the midweek Champions League second-leg action...

Barcelona v AC Milan, Tuesday 19:45, ITV

AC Milan's last seven goals in the Champions League have all been in the second half
AC Milan's domestic resurgence culminated in the best result of the knockout stages so far when they managed to beat Barcelona without conceding an away goal. In light of a trip to the intimidating Camp Nou, the tie is far from over, with qualification possibly hinging on one vital away goal. Five of the last eight goals that the Spaniards have conceded arrived after the break so, if the Italians are to notch, it seems likely to be reserved for the second 45.
Recommended Bet: Back second half to contain more goals @ 2.26/5 

AC Milan have conceded at least three goals in four of their last six away games in the Champions League knockout stages
Stats such as these do not bode well for Milan who have a bad habit of going down in flames when making away trips in the latter stages of the competition. On this occasion, Milan's healthy advantage could see them home but you'd expect Lionel Messi and co to register at least a couple. The Catalans have averaged over three goals a match in the nine home games since they last drew a blank against Benfica.
Recommended Bet: Back Barcelona to score three or more goals @ 2.1211/10  

Schalke v Galatasaray, Tuesday 19:45, Sky Sports 2

Galatasaray have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 away games in the Champions League
This tie is hanging on a knife edge following a tense 1-1 draw in Turkey. The slight advantage lies with the Schalke and the German hosts will be buzzing after completing their third straight Bundesliga win in a row against second-placed Borussia Dortmund at the Veltins-Arena on Saturday. With attacking midfielder Julian Draxler hitting scoring form with three goals in his last two starts, you'd expect to see a confident Schalke side register a few more goals, despite Klaas-Jan Huntelaar's absence.
Recommended Bet: Back Julian Draxler to score @ 3.9n/a  

Galatasaray have scored only eight goals in seven Champions League games this season, the lowest among the 16 teams still left in the competition
Clearly, one of the hindrances to qualification for the Turkish visitors is their inability to score multiple goals. In stark contrast to their hosts, Galatasaray have warmed up for this one with two really poor results in which they have twice failed to trouble the scoresheet. Joint top scorer in this year's competition Burak Yilmaz appears the only man capable of scoring for the Turks, after notching seven of their eight goals to date.
Recommended Bet: Back Schalke to win to nil @ 3.39/4

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Champions League: Ruthless Bayern Munich to finish off Arsenal

"So dominant have Bayern been in the Champions League in the current campaign that they have been winning both at half-time and full-time in five of their last seven matches in the competition. Back them to do the same on Wednesday at 2.89/5."

Bayern Munich will show Arsenal no mercy despite their 3-1 advantage from the first leg, while Porto's defensive resolve will mean a low scoring encounter at Malaga, says European football expert James Horncastle as he previews Wednesday night's Champions League games

Bayern Munich v Arsenal
Kick Off: 19:45
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2

"It will be difficult, but let's try to make the impossible, possible," Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger said, after his side's 3-1 defeat to Bayern Munich at the Emirates last month in the first leg of their last 16 Champions League tie. 

Just how difficult is clear from the history of this competition. Since the European Cup began only seven teams have managed to successfully overturn a first leg defeat at home. They are Milan in 1955, Ajax in 1969, Nottingham Forest in 1980, Steaua Bucharest in 1994, Ajax once again in 1996 and Inter in 2011. 

It's a staggeringly low number and, as if any further confirmation were needed, amply demonstrates the size of the task facing Arsenal at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday night. The Exchange understandably has them at 38.037/1 to qualify. 

Arsenal must hope for the kind of blackout Bayern suffered in October when they lost 3-1 to BATE Borisov, a result that looks like an aberration within the context of the rest of their record-breaking season. 

It did look for a while as though they might slip up on Saturday. Twice Bayern fell behind at home to Fortuna Dusseldorf. And if Wenger and his players were watching, which seems likely given they didn't play this weekend and are well-rested for the trip to Munich, then they would have been encouraged right up until the 74th minute. For that's when Franck Ribery equalised again and Dusseldorf's belief in an unlikely win ended. Jerome Boateng would get the winner four minutes from time to seal Bayern's fifteenth straight victory.

It all must have been pretty soul-destroying for those Arsenal players who did perhaps tune in. This Bayern, it seems, are never beaten. 

"Last season we would have lost this kind of match," goalkeeper Manuel Neuer said. "Our cohesion is exceptional." 

That doesn't bode well for Arsenal who wish to replicate the second leg showing they put on against Milan this time last season when they won 3-0 at the Emirates and improbably threatened to take the tie to extra-time after a 4-0 first leg defeat at San Siro. Bayern, as Neuer alluded to, have a resilience about them, however, a mental strength that makes the prospect of this happening distinctly unlikely. 

They've lost just once at home all season and have never conceded more than two in a game. So dominant have they been in the Champions League in the current campaign that they have been winning both at half-time and full-time in five of their last seven matches in the competition. Back them to do the same on Wednesday at 2.89/5. 

Recommended Bet: Bayern Munich/Bayern Munich in the HT/FT market at 2.89/5

Malaga v Porto
Kick Off: 19:45
TV: Live on Sky Sports 4

Elsewhere in Europe things are much more delicately poised between Malaga and Porto. This is certainly the more intriguing of Wednesday night's ties. Porto take a 1-0 lead to the Rosaleda and might be made to regret not making more of the possession they had at the Dragao. Joao Moutinho's goal, the one that separates them, should have been ruled out for offside too. 

"Our first goal was to win. Our second goal was not to concede," Porto coach Vitor Pereira said after the first leg. "But after the great quality match that we played from the first to the last minute, I think we deserved a second goal. I'm not completely satisfied in that we couldn't get a goal to make it 2-0; that would have been a fairer reflection of what happened on the pitch."

Alas, it wasn't to be and Malaga were let off the hook. "The scoreline is one we can turn around," insisted coach Manuel Pellegrini. "Returning to our own stadium we will be confident of reversing the situation."

Malaga have yet to lose at home in this their maiden Champions League campaign. Their record stands at three wins and one draw.  

That said, they haven't won any of their last four games in all competitions, scoring just the once. Their potent left-hand side, crucial to the team's balance, is no longer what it once was following the sale of Nacho Monreal to Arsenal and the injury suffered by Eliseu.

Attacking isn't coming as easy as did earlier in the season. In Pellegrini's words Malaga "played very badly offensively" in Oporto. "We wanted to be offensive," he said, "but Porto wouldn't allow us to be." 

Star players Isco and Joaquin were rested at the weekend. Porto, however, will trust in their ability to go to the Rosaleda, get an away goal and preserve their advantage. They've kept seven clean sheets from nine Champions League matches this season and can be backed to record another one at 3.412/5. Under 1.5 goals also has an attraction at 3.259/4.

Recommended Bet: Under 1.5 Goals at 3.259/4

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Ryan Moore: How Champions Day can move forward in the future

A Champion Stakes featuring Frankel and taking on Cirrus Des Aigles and Nathaniel is clearly out of the top drawer but at the end of the day the race has attracted just six runners for a massive pot...
If the ground is deemed suitable by Sir Henry, then Frankel will win by seven lengths.

Nobody wants to get behind a top class meeting more than Ryan Moore and he is a big supporter of the Champions Day concept. Here he suggests some improvements for the organisers to consider.

It will obviously be a crushing blow to all concerned if heavy ground sees the withdrawal of Frankel at Ascot tomorrow.

But I fear for the future of Champions Day, full stop.

I appreciate that it is almost sacrilege to question the wisdom of the day, but I think we have to be honest with ourselves and everyone should stop pussy-footing around the subject.

I know plenty of people who share the same concerns that I am going to express now - and Julian Muscat touched upon them in the Racing Post this week - but they almost feel intimidated into silence and acceptance. Intimidated may be a touch strong, but you know what I mean.

Everyone applauds the concept of us having our own Champions Day and Ascot and all concerned have done a great job to get it up and running. It clearly involved overcoming a hell of a lot of self-interest to get it staged.

And you have to give Qipco the utmost respect for supporting the meeting to such a stunning degree, especially in terms of the prize money on offer.

Their involvement is a massive plus for the sport.

So nothing but praise on that level. And no-one wants to get behind a top class meeting in this country more than I; as I have said before, above all else, and that includes jockey titles, I work to be involved in top class racing.

But at the moment I think Champions Day ranks some way behind the Arc and Breeders' Cup meetings, and is clearly a work in progress.

There are obvious issues to address, not least the quality of the cards, on which races "clash" with themselves, the timing of the meeting, and the lack of variety on the card. And I am not even going to mention the apprentice race on the card. Well, I might a bit later.

Take out Frankel last year and this, and what are we left with? Pretty much two cards - although I fully accept the Champion Stakes was a top class race last year, with Frankel sparkling in the QEII - that wouldn't particularly stand out during a Royal Ascot meeting.

And when I look at Champions Day, I see a dilution of the domestic end-of-season racing, not a strengthening.

Let me explain.

Let's go through tomorrow's Ascot card. And one thing that immediately strikes me is that it is just a six-race card - and one of those races is a 0-100 apprentices handicap worth 30k, for god's sake - and that is surely unacceptable for such a showcase meeting. Compare that with an Arc or Breeders Cup card, which give racegoers a breadth and depth of racing that Ascot tomorrow cannot currently compete with.

We have a stayers race that features three previous Gold Cup winners but who come here in variable form, a Champion Sprint Stakes that wouldn't get many pulses racing (though, to be fair, not many sprints have these past few years), an up-to-standard Fillies and Mares Group 2 (though one lacking top class fillies and mares such as Danedream, Shareta and The Fugue, not to mention the Arc winner), and a QEII that lacks real strength in depth for a Group 1 mile race (you may think that is harsh but compare this field to the one that Excelebration beat in the Marois).

A Champion Stakes featuring Frankel and taking on Cirrus Des Aigles and Nathaniel is clearly out of the top drawer but at the end of the day the race has attracted just six runners for a massive pot.

So I think the quality issue needs addressing, and that must surely be linked to its proximity to the Arc and Breeders Cup cards.

I know you have more chance of turning on the TV these days, and not seeing Clare Balding, than getting new meetings staged - hence my applauding the fact that I even have a Champions Day meeting to comment on - but surely the more natural home for this meeting is King George Day in July.

I appreciate that Goodwood would probably have something to say about that but if Champions Day is going to be the sport's flagship event, then it has to take priority. Ascot in October is probably not going to attract the best, going forward.

And there is probably too much of a crossover between the 1m and 1m2f races, and probably the 1m2f and 1m4f, on the card, in the likely event of testing ground at this time of year.

But arguably a more pressing concern of mine is the lack of variety on the card, and by that I mean the absence of two-year-old races. Surely, they have to be an integral part of such a day.

I don't think Future Champions Day at Newmarket is anywhere near the finished article yet, and when I looked at the 2yo races last week, I saw too many options and clashes.

To me having the 6f Middle Park, 7f Dewhurst and 1m Autumn Stakes on the same card prevented some high-class and more informative clashes. I would have loved to have seen some of the horses from the Autumn Stakes take on Dawn Approach and beefing up the Dewhurst.

We can have a "future stars" apprentice race, but no "future stars" 2yo races?

So what we currently have is Champions Day meeting that has the foundations in place, but needs a lot of the rough edges knocked into shape and built upon.

Having said all that, I'm fully behind the concept and doubt that I have said anything that the organisers aren't fully aware of and a lot of people in racing aren't already thinking. And I won't be getting involved in any future debate on this; I have just given my honest opinion and will leave it there.

Oh, and by the way, if the ground is deemed suitable by Sir Henry, then Frankel will win by seven lengths.

And no-one will remember any of the other five races, anyway.

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Six Potential Champions League Upsets: City to ruffle Real's feathers?

"A pre-Abu Dhabi cash injection Man City would have been no match for Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in Group D. A lot has changed in the last four years, however, and the blue side of Manchester can now compete with some of the world’s most illustrious clubs."

The Champions League group stage begins on September 18. Alex Lee provides us with half-a-dozen long shots to get your betting mind ticking before the big kick-off

Difficult to favour draw specialists
Statistically, the most commonly occurring result in football is the home win. Dynamo Kiev, however, qualified for the group stage of the Champions League on the back of an impressive away win at Borussia Monchengladbach. Their Group A opponents PSG on 18 September, however, are currently draw specialists and don't have the kind of home form that will instil any fear in Ukrainian circles. A lay of PSG @ 1.75/7 or under is therefore one way of covering both the draw and the away win.

Schalke can shade it
Sometimes, when assessing a team's UEFA Champions League chances, a good way is to compare the relative merits of its domestic league against that of its opponents. While Olympiacos have home advantage in their first Group B match against Schalke, the Greek league pales into insignificance against an ultra-competitive Bundesliga and this is why Schalke are a great shout for an away win at a price of around the 2.915/8 mark.

Malaga to get case of home jitters
In Group C, Malaga face Zenit St Petersburg, who are unbeaten in their travels this season. While the home side has got off to a good start domestically, a fixture in the Champions League group stage is completely unknown territory for them. Zenit, on the other hand, are hardened competitors at this level and qualified for the knock-out phase last season. For the above reasons, it might be wise to lay a blinking-into-the-UEFA Champions League-headlamps Malaga @ 2.35/4.

City are the Real deal
A pre-Abu Dhabi cash injection Man City would have been no match for Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in Group D. A lot has changed in the last four years, however, and the blue side of Manchester can now compete with some of the world's most illustrious clubs. The proud owners of one of Europe's most parsimonious back lines, Manchester City are more than capable of forcing a draw or sneaking a win in Madrid when they lock horns later this month. A lay of Real Madrid, therefore @ 1.674/6 is a potential steal.

Benfica to provide tough test
While Celtic are the undisputed kings of Scotland at present, the lack of any real competition due to Rangers' fall from grace means that Benfica will be of a much higher calibre than the Hoops are used to welcoming to Celtic Park in Group G. Furthermore, the away team's odds of around 2.111/10 are just too good to turn down when you consider they brushed aside Spanish aristocrats Real Madrid, albeit in a friendly, 5-2 during pre-season.

Nordsjælland can shock Shakhtar
When it comes to causing an upset in football, there is often nothing better than the unknown quantity. Nordsjælland, from Denmark, fit the bill perfectly. With a Champions League place secured on the back of winning their first ever domestic league title, the Danish minnows have nothing to lose. Meanwhile, the home fans of Shakhtar Donetsk will be expecting a comfortable win, which as we all know can bring considerable pressure. A lay of Shakhtar at around 1.42/5 is a cheap option for those of you looking for an in-running trade if Nordsjælland somehow get their noses in front.

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Champions League: Malaga and Udinese should prevail

"Braga’s Estadio Municipal was not exactly a fortress in their Europa League campaign last year."

It's crunch time in the Champions League qualifying process as Christian Crowther predicts wins for Malaga and Udinese...

Braga v Udinese, Wednesday 19:45, Sky Sports 2 (Red Button), Match odds: Braga 2.26/5, Udinese 3.9n/a, The Draw 3.39/4
Udinese were somewhat unlucky to be drawn against Arsenal in last year's Champions League qualifying stage but they are back again having finished third in Serie A, which is no mean feat given that they denied illustrious company like Inter and Napoli a crack at the competition. The Italians have a slightly more favourable draw this time around against Portugal's own third-place team Braga, who incidentally they have never met. Udinese certainly bring the better form into the game having finished last season with four straight wins whereas the hosts managed one win from their last six - losing four in that run. Braga's Estadio Municipal was not exactly a fortress in their Europa League campaign last year either as they won just two out of five at home, losing two more, before exiting to Besiktas.
Recommended Bet: Back Udinese to beat Braga @ 3.9n/a

Malaga v Panathinaikos, Wednesday 19:45, Sky Sports 2, Match odds: Malaga 1.768/11, Panathinaikos 5.69/2, The Draw 3.8514/5
Malaga's pre-season troubles have been well-documented as their Qatari owner appears to be have suddenly lost interest and isapparently considering selling up. Star players such as Santi Carzola and last year's top goalscorer Salomon Rondon have since departed, however in16-year-old Fabrice Olinga, they may have uncovered a new gem. The Cameroonian teenager became La Liga's youngest ever scorer in Saturday's opening win over Celta Vigo. They should have too much at home for their Greek visitors here. Panathinaikos endured a miserable time in Europe last season; losing out in the Champions League qualifiers first round to little known OB of Denmark before getting dumped out of the Europa League in the play-off round by Israeli side Maccabi Tel Aviv. Malaga have won three of their last four home games to nil, drawing the other.
Recommended Bet: Back Malaga to win to nil @ 2.8415/8

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Champions Day: Frankel entered for Champions Stakes

Frankel and Camelot feature among 46 entries for the Champions Stakes at Ascot on October 20

Frankel and Camelot feature among 46 entries for the Champions Stakes at Ascot on October 20...

Sir Henry Cecil's unbeaten superstar, who is the highest rated racehorse in Timeform's history, is due to step up to 10 furlongs for his next race at York in the International Stakes later this month, having asserted his complete dominance over the one mile division.

Old foe Excelebration is one of a huge army of possible top-class rivals from Aidan O'Brien's Ballydoyle yard, including Triple Crown aspirant Camelot, Imperial Monarch, St Nicholas Abbey and Power.

The likes of last year's winner Cirrus Des Aigles, Nathaniel, Giofra, Meandre, Golden Lilac and The Fugue could also take him on.

Frankel has additionally been entered in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, which he won last year, over a mile. However, it is believed that he is likely to be targeted at the Champions Stakes. Cecil could rely on his new addition Beauty Parlour in the one mile Group 1 contest, while the John Gosden-trained duo of Fallen For You and Elusive Kate could also line up. Camelot is a surprise entry, with Most Improved and long-term absentee Parish Hall still in the mix.

The British Champions Sprint entries are headed by July Cup winner Mayson, with Ortensia, Bated Breath and the returning Starspangledbanner still engaged.

Last year's British Champions Fillies' And Mares' Stakes winner Dancing Rain is one of 33 entries this season, with Great Heavens, The Fugue and Snow Fairy also possible runners.

Saddler's Rock, Colour Vision and Fame And Glory could all clash in the British Champions Long Distance Cup. Whilst the Dermot Weld-trained Rite Of Passage, the 2010 Gold Cup winner, has not been seen since May 2011 but also holds an entry.

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FA Cup & Champions League Results: Patient Spurs and Chelsea rewarded

Champions League / Maxliu / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

FA Cup wins for Spurs and Everton set up exciting semi-finals and Chelsea pull off excellent away victory in Portugal...

Tottenham Hotspur are [3.6] to win the FA Cup and Chelsea are [1.14] to win their Champions League quarter-final after second-half goals earned important victories for both London clubs.

The Blues will be especially pleased with their 1-0 win over Benfica in Portugal. The away side were matched at [6.4] and they had to work very hard in every department to achieve an excellent win. Salomon Kalou scored the game's only goal with 15 minutes remaining, finishing from Fernando Torres' smart pass.

It was a fantastic result for caretaker manager Roberto Di Matteo who freshened up his side after the weekend's draw with Spurs. The gamble pulled off with Raul Meireles and Torres both impressing. Chelsea can now be backed at [11.0] to win the Champions League. Real Madrid, who were matched at [2.7] for their 3-0 victory away to APOEL, can be backed at [3.4] to reclaim Europe's biggest prize.

The FA Cup semi-finals should be feisty affairs with Spurs set to play Chelsea and Everton meeting Liverpool, following this evening's results.

Bolton provided stern resistance against Spurs' stellar attacking talents for 73 minutes before Ryan Nelsen rewarded those who matched him at [55.0] in the first goalscorer market.

In fact, a flurry of late goals meant that a number of long odds bets came in as Gareth Bale scored Spurs' second and Kevin Davies notched a Bolton consolation before an injury time strike from Louis Saha meant that 3-1, matched at a whopping [290.00], was the correct score.

Everton were by far the better team in their FA Cup quarter-final replay away to Sunderland. David Moyes team scored a goal in each half- the first from Nikica Jelavic, the second an own goal by David Vaughan - as they set up a mouthwatering semi against their local rivals. Everton can be backed at [5.5] to win the competition they last lifted in 1995.

David Luiz and Ramires are both returning to their old stomping ground and could prove the key to Chelsea's success......

James Eastham expects an entertaining encounter in Portugal on Tuesday evening....

Chelsea fans may think they dodged something of a bullet by drawing Benfica but there are good stats to suggest the Portuguese outfit shouldn't be too disppapointed with the draw themselves, says Matthew Walton....

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Champions League Betting: Seeded favourites in real danger

Champions League / Matthew Walton / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mario Gomez and Bayern Munich have plenty to think about ahead of their second leg against Basel

"But even those backers who expect the ‘European powerhouses’ of Bayern and Inter Milan, just a goal down at the mid-point of the ties, to bounce back and beat Basel and Marseille, should note the facts."

Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, Chelsea and Arsenal were amongst the teams coming out on top at the group stages who have it all to do going into the second legs of the last 16 stages. What clues do the stats give us about how to bet, asks Matthew Walton.

Popular wisdom says teams who win their opening Champions League group are virtually guaranteed a place in the quarter-finals.

After all... winning their initial section ensures an easier R16 tie, against a weaker team, who finished second in their group. There's also the added bonus of travelling away for the first leg and so playing the all important second leg at home.

Makes sense.

How come, therefore, since the current Champions League format was implemented in 2003/04, are we still to see a single season where all eight of these group winning, or seeded, teams have collectively qualified for the last eight.

Last year was a good year... seven of the eight group winners making it through, but previous seasons have been something of a mixed bag (4, 5, 6, 7, 5 and 6) in terms of success.

That's a fairly significant 29% failure rate for these teams - supposedly 'nailed-on' to qualify. And, once again, this season we're not destined to see a clean sweep by the group winners.

Quite remarkably, six table-topping sides (the highest figure since 2003/04) have lost the first leg of their home-away ties... hardly the best way to go about qualification.

Only Barcelona (3-1 winners at Bayer Leverkusen) and Real Madrid (1-1 at CSKA Moscow) escaped a first leg defeat.

Good news for the Spanish duo... not so good for the other half dozen.

Reason being, on the stats, losing the first leg, no matter that its against a so-called weaker team, severely damages a club's chances of progression in the competition.

In fact, the last eight seasons have seen seeded teams lose the first leg on no fewer than 22 occasions... resulting in 14 of them subsequently going out. That's a 64% failure rate.

This figure suggests that three, maybe four, of the six first leg losers are destined to exit the tournament.

And they are... Apoel (0-1 to Lyon), Benfica (2-3 Zenit), Arsenal (0-4 Milan), Chelsea (1-3 Napoli), Inter (0-1 Marseille) and Bayern (0-1 Basel).

Admittedly, each one of these has home advantage for the second leg matches. But that may not prove enough to save some of them.

Prime candidates are the English pair of Chelsea and Arsenal.

Chelsea's first leg conquerors, Napoli, are as short as [1.4] to qualify, whilst the side who demolished Arsenal, Milan, are arguably a big price under the circumstances... at [1.03] http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104541859&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013.

Both Premier League teams face a huge challenge after comprehensive away defeats.

But even those backers who expect the 'European powerhouses' of Bayern and Inter Milan, just a goal down at the mid-point of the ties, to bounce back and beat Basel and Marseille, should note the facts.

Of the aforementioned 22 teams (away losers in the first leg), their record in the return home fixture only reads W12 D4 L6.

These sides still only win just over half these matches. Matches that they must win to stand any chance of moving forward in the competition.

That would probably explain why Inter trade at a rather big-looking [3.0] to overcome their French opponents, Marseille. That... and some very dodgy form in Serie A.

So whether Bayern, equally troubled at home, are value at [1.51] to see off their Swiss rivals is open to debate.

Given the facts, Basel are actually the call... if you're a real value merchant. Or, if you don't fancy taking on the mighty Munich then consider Zenit St. Petersburg (also winners in the first leg but and odds-against to qualify) who face Benfica. The Russians trade at [2.28] to progress.

And looking beyond the R16, on the basis of these current ties, we could see a very open set of Quarter-Finals. Make no mistake, a couple of 'minnows' look likely to make the last eight.

The draw, as ever, will be crucial but a couple of outright prices, notably for two of the Italian sides, might prove good trading material further down the line... Milan [13.5] and especially Napoli [27.0] being the teams in question.

Should they go through, and the QF/SF pairings go favourably, their odds could shorten appreciably well ahead of the next round... and that could prove another potential source of profit!

Key Statistic

No seeded team which lost the first match, the away leg, in the R16 by two goals or more has ever managed to turn it around in the second leg. Every one has been eliminated. Arsenal and Chelsea both fall into this category this season.

Recommended Bets

Zenit St. Petersburg to qualify [2.28]

Napoli (back to lay) in outright winner market.

James Eastham expects plenty of entertainment in the Portuguese capital on Tuesday night....

Michael Lintorn has examined the Opta stats and picked out four bets for Tuesday's Champions League games, in which he sees neither home side triumphing......

APOEL are going to need to snap out of their Champions League goal drought fairly sharpish if they are to avoid elimination on Wednesday......

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Champions League Multiple: Trust in Real Madrid's defence

Champions League / Michael Lintorn / 22 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sergio Ramos is part of a defence yet to concede in the Champions League

"Dinamo Zagreb are the sole side without a group-stage goal to their name."

Shaky domestically yet solid in Europe, having faith in Real Madrid's backline frustrating Dinamo Zagreb may be the secret to multiple success on Tuesday night...

CSKA Moscow v Lille (17:00, Sky Sports 2)
There are certain scenarios in which Lille can extend their wait for their first victory tonight and still qualify, but the reality of the situation is that they desperately need three points on the board, and that necessity should contribute to a goal-heavy affair. The initial clash in France finished 2-2 and the hosts have the most prolific attack in Group B, whereas the visitors possess the weakest defence.
Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [2.2]

Otelul Galati v FC Basel (19:45, Sky Sports Red Button)
Despite being stranded at the bottom of Group C without a point, Otelul Galati's debut Champions League campaign has been no disaster, and things could be different had they not conceded three penalties and an own goal in their first four games. They are heading out though while FC Basel have it all to play for and a nine-match unbeaten run on the road to defend, which includes four wins in five.
Recommended Bet: FC Basel to win @ [1.87]

Real Madrid v Dinamo Zagreb (19:45, Sky Sports Red Button)
Though three points clear at the top of the table, Real Madrid have one of the worst home defensive records in La Liga. However, for no obvious reason, they have avoided such frailty in the Champions League and are the only team yet to concede. Given that in Dinamo Zagreb they are facing the sole side without a goal to their name, the case for opposing both teams to score is a very strong one.
Recommended Bet: Both teams to score? No @ [1.54]

A treble combining those suggested wagers using the Betfair Coupon provides odds of [5.82], so for a £10 stake, you would record a £48.20 profit if they all deliver.

If you trawl through the record books you'll see that predicting which teams will be the last two standing in the Champions League this year, is actually easier than it looks. So bet accordingly, says Matthew Walton....

After a rare Serie A victory on Saturday, Michael Lintorn is backing Inter to march on in Europe with three points away to Trabzonspor......

Ajax head to France in a position of power in Group D, however judging by their recent form, things are unlikely to look so rosy come full-time......

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Womens' Champions League Betting: Mammoth task for Bristol

Women's Football / Hannah Duncan / 05 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jemma Rose's Bristol and Julie Fleeting's Arsenal are both in action this afternoon in the Champions League

"The Vixens struggled to assert themselves in the WSL this season, finishing with 16 points from 14 games and their opponents are well-versed on the European stage, having reached the UEFA Cup quarter-finals in 2003/04 and 2004/05. With match odds at 1.4, a victory for the home side is likely to be the best bet."

There's Champions League action this afternoon but rather than Barcelona or Manchester United, it's the ladies of Bristol who will be taking centre stage. New columnist Hannah Duncan on that match and where Steve McClaren might go next.

As Lionel Messi and Wayne Rooney et al take a break from Champions League action, attention turns to the women's version of the competition this week, with Arsenal Ladies and Bristol Academy representing England among Europe's elite.

The Gunners host Belarusian champions FC Bobruichanka this afternoon (kick-off 16:00) and are in a strong position to progress to the last 16 after a 4-0 win in the first-leg. The domestic treble winners are littered with England internationals and anything other than a high-scoring victory on home turf looks unlikely, as the North Londoners vie to better their semi-final showing last season.

This is Bristol Academy's inaugural Champions League campaign and the Vixens will have their work cut out against FC Energiya Voronezh this afternoon (kick-off 16:00) if they want to extend their stay in the competition. After a 1-1 draw at Ashton Gate last week, Bristol will need to go all-out for a win and could find goalkeeper Siobhan Chamberlain exposed at the back.

However, having conceded 20 goals in 14 Women's Super League games this season, there are unlikely to be many defensive frailties for the five-time Russian champions to exploit. But by the same token, the Vixens' goals-for column in the WSL read at just 14 from 14 outings, so it looks likely to be a low scoring affair - a dabble on under 2.5 goals at around [2.4] could see a return.

The Vixens struggled to assert themselves in the WSL this season, finishing with 16 points from 14 games and their opponents are well-versed on the European stage, having reached the UEFA Cup quarter-finals in 2003/04 and 2004/05. With match odds at [1.4], a victory for the home side is likely to be the best bet.

Away from the women's and European game, the Barclays Premier League takes yet another break this weekend for international matches. But who are the big winners and losers of the halt in proceedings?

While Bolton may relish the chance to regroup after their dismal start to the season, Neil Warnock's QPR have an extra week to stew on the 6-0 drubbing handed to them by Fulham on Sunday, who themselves will miss the chance to build on their recent momentum before their trip to in-form Stoke.

Likewise Swansea, who are just starting to get into their stride, will have to wait an extra week before travelling to Norwich for their next dose of Premier League action.
Blackburn boss Steve Kean gets a breather from the calls for his head, but travels with his side to India for a promotion drive for the club's owners. The under-fire boss claims this will help bring his squad together, but you can't help but feel his comments are just trying to keep Venky's sweet. Whether Kean will even be in charge come Rovers' next League game away to QPR remains a big doubt.

With that in mind, could Lancashire be the next step on the managerial ladder for former England boss Steve McClaren? The 'Wally with the Brolly' departed his post at struggling Nottingham Forest over the weekend, which was a commendable move - saving the club over £2million in compensation for a sacking which looked inevitable.

Blackburn aside, there are unlikely to be many posts opening up over the season for McClaren, particularly in the top flight, though the likes of Owen Coyle at Bolton and Steve Bruce at Sunderland have probably had the odd sleepless night over the past few weeks.

So should a vacancy become available at Blackburn, McClaren may have to take a leap of faith to believe he can turn things around there. Given recent results at Ewood Park and his own record at Forest, he may be one of the few who would believe it.

The national team are beaten by the French after 120 minutes of action leaving the coach to question her future...

Ralph Ellis tells us how the England Women's team has grown in terms of resources and indeed ability and why Hope Powell and star striker Kelly Smith can challenge for top honours in the ongoing European Championships....

The England women's team are being failed by the media as well as those at the top of the game but at the heart of the problem lie long out-dated misconceptions about what consitutes "ladylike" behaviour, says Dave Farrar....

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Betting Briefing: Stayers & Future Champions at Newmarket

Weekly Betfair Briefing / Timeform / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Newmarket stages the Cesarewitch on Saturday

"Saturday brings one of the big end-of-season handicaps at Newmarket, this one for stayers, the Cesarewitch. Won last year by Aaim to Prosper, who will carry top-weight if taking part again, this particularly competitive event over two and a quarter miles is a real test of stamina."

Timeform look over the next week's racing, which gets underway with Longchamp's Arc day on Sunday and ends with a high-class card at Newmarket on Saturday....

Sunday October 2
Longchamp's Arc meeting is one of the highlights on the racing calendar, and this year's renewal is no different. Every race there on Sunday carries Group 1 status and it has a stunning line-up of horses including Goldikova, Sarafina, So You Think, Workforce and many more quality performers. Arc weekend is a real treat for racing fans with race after race to get excited about, and after months of looking forward to it, it is finally here.

There's also racing on Sunday on the National Hunt scene at Huntingdon, Kelso and Uttoxeter, whilst Tipperary stages a good-quality mixed-code card in Ireland, where Captain Cee Bee and Luska Lad feature in a Grade 2 hurdle and the David Marnane-trained Dandy Boy makes his seasonal reappearance in the Group 3 Concorde Stakes.

Monday October 3
Monday doesn't quite scale the heights of the previous day but you can't have a Group 1 card every day of the week, so Pontefract, Warwick and Windsor it is. Arguably the most interesting race of the day is Pontefract's conditions event over two miles and a furlong. Likely participants include Ajaan, winner of the race last year, the Roger Varian-trained Pekan Star, who is stepping markedly up in trip, and Fire Fighter, who will be seeking a hat-trick of wins.

Tuesday October 4
Flat action on Tuesday at Catterick and Leicester, and on all-weather at Southwell. Catterick host what could develop into a competitive nursery over seven furlongs, whilst Leicester stage an interesting conditions event for two year-olds and a pair of maidens that could consist of large fields, as is the trend at this time of year. We also have National Hunt action over in Ireland, once again courtesy of Tipperary.

Wednesday October 5
The busiest day of the week so far on Wednesday, with racing on the flat at Nottingham and in Ireland at Navan, National Hunt racing at Ludlow and Towcester, before we head to Kempton for an evening of floodlit racing. Memorabilia, a fair performer on the flat and second on his hurdling debut on Friday, is entered again at Ludlow on Wednesday and could build on that hurdling experience. Nottingham's card features three maidens out of six races, with a number of powerful stables holding entries.

Thursday October 6
Just the two flat meetings on Thursday, at Ayr in the afternoon and Wolverhampton in the evening. Jumps racing is more the order of the day, with action at Exeter, Worcester and over in Ireland at Tramore. Interestingly, trainer Charlie Longsdon is 2-2 with his National Hunt flat runners at Worcester in the 2011-12 season, and holds three entries in their final event on Thursday.

Friday October 7
Friday takes us to York, Carlisle and Newton Abbot in the afternoon, with the former staging the only flat card. York's feature event on a seven race card is a class 2 handicap over a mile, whilst Newton Abbot host a valuable handicap hurdle over two miles and six furlongs. We again sample the delights of Wolverhampton in the evening, for a seven race card at the same time as Dundalk host a card headed by a very valuable listed event over seven furlongs.

Saturday October 8
Saturday brings one of the big end-of-season handicaps at Newmarket, this one for stayers, the Cesarewitch. Won last year by Aaim to Prosper, who will carry top-weight if taking part again, this particularly competitive event over two and a quarter miles is a real test of stamina. Other entries of note include the Roger Charlton-trained Keys, an impressive winner on two occasions this season, Sir Mark Prescott's Tuscan Gold, antepost favourite at [10.0], and Nicky Henderson's Veiled, who took the Ascot Stakes on her most recent outing.

It's also 'Future Champions' day on Newmarket's revamped Cesarewitch card, and the two big juvenile races to take note of are the Group 1 Middle Park and the Dewhurst, over six and seven furlongs respectively. A two year-old can dramatically enhance his claims to next year's classics in either of these races, so horses like Ektihaam, Camelot and Daddy Long Legs will be looking for success here.

Elsewhere on Saturday, York stages a solid looking card featuring the listed Rockingham Stakes over six furlongs, whilst Chepstow and Hexham hold National Hunt cards, as does Fairyhouse in Ireland. We visit Wolverhampton for the third evening in a row for another seven race card.

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Timeform look ahead to the coming week, featuring mid-week action from Ayr, Salisbury and Warwick, before we head to Newmarket and Ascot on Saturday for valuable sales races and pattern race action......

Timeform look ahead to next week's racing, featuring good mid-week cards at Goodwood and Newmarket, before a fascinating order of play on Saturday including a quality card at HQ......

Timeform look ahead to next week's racing, which features interesting mid-week cards from Sandown and Yarmouth, and culminates in Ayr's Gold Cup meeting......

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Champions League Betting: Arsenal dealt tough Udinese draw

Champions League / Michael Lintorn / 05 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Arsene Wenger will have to pit his wits against Udinese's Francesco Guidolin

"As is often the case in such situations, Udinese’s response to one of the most successful campaigns in their recent history was to flog their assets while their value was high."

History suggests that Arsenal always make it to the Champions League group stage at the very least, but they will have to do it the hard way this year after drawing Serie A overachievers Udinese.

The Gunners have been constant qualifiers since 1998-99 so will rightly be fancied to progress, however this will be one of their tougher tests, especially as the second leg is at the Stadio Friuli, where the Italian club went unbeaten against their division's top five last season.

Arsene Wenger's team stood to face Udinese, Rubin Kazan, Twente, FC Zurich or OB, so will feel hard done by landing one of the trickiest available opponents, though confidence can be gained from the Zebrette enduring an even more underwhelming summer than them.

As is often the case in such situations, Udinese's response to one of the most successful campaigns in their recent history was to flog their assets while their value was high. Alexis Sanchez joined Barcelona, Gokhan Inler headed to Napoli and Cristian Zapata made his way to Villarreal.

That and the dreadful record of Serie A sides in Europe in 2010-11 is why the second-time entrants, who reached the group stage in 2005-06, are [560.0] to take the trophy at the Allianz Arena next May, whereas Arsenal aren't too far shy of the frontrunners at [22.0].

2009-10 semi-finalists Lyon [[280.0]] also failed to receive the full benefit of their place among the seeds, landing a difficult collision with Rubin Kazan [[410.0]] that is made all the more challenging by their lack of action so far in the transfer market.

Benfica [[180.0]] will be favoured in their intriguing tie with Dutch title challengers Twente [[800.0]], whose continental stock rises with each passing season, having secured a second leg in Lisbon, while Bayern Munich [[22.0]] will be happy to have been paired with FC Zurich.

Smart bettors will look beyond the result, because there is some excellent value on offer in some of the other markets before the showdown at Wembley on Saturday night, writes James Eastham....

Want to know how Manchester United can stop Barcelona? Michael Cox assesses the likely patterns of play and selection conundrums ahead of Saturday's Champions League final....

Lionel Messi was named in a whopping 98% of teams as football fans around the world voted on the best hybrid line-up of FC Barcelona and Manchester United players, ahead of the Champions League Final between the two clubs....

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Champions League Final: Key battles and recent history

Champions League / Jonathan Wilson / 26 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lucky number 13? Ji-Sung Park will be key for United

"Park is, quite simply, the best defensive forward in the world. Dealing with Alves will be one of the key tasks for United and it’s hard to believe Park will not be the man to do so."

Jonathan Wilson provides an erudite analysis of Saturday's big match, looking at recent ties between Manchester United and Barcelona and explaining where the important battles will be fought.

When Manchester United [4.1] face Barcelona [2.06] in the Champions League final, it will be their fourth encounter in a little over three years. Past performance, of course, is no guarantee of future results, but perhaps those three games can provide clues as to what will happen on Saturday.

The three games in question are the 2009 Champions League final, in which Barcelona beat Manchester United 2-0, and the two legs of the semi-final a year earlier, in which United forced a goalless draw in Barcelona and then won 1-0 at Old Trafford.

What is perhaps most striking about those three games is the comparison with the previous games between United and Barcelona. When they met in 1998-99 in the first group stage of the Champions League, they provided two magnificent spectacle, drawing both encounters 3-3. That, though, was in the brief golden age of attacking play that culminated in Euro 2000.

Both sides have tempered their approach since: United by abandoning the gung-ho 4-4-2 that occasionally left them vulnerable to counter-attacks, and Barca by pursuing a policy of fundamentalist possession football which, as Arsene Wenger remarked earlier in the season, can lead to "sterile domination". That was seen even in the final, in which Barcelona, having taken a tenth-minute lead, were almost entirely in control and yet won only 2-0. So the last three games between United and Barca have between them yielded only half as many goals as each of the previous two games, which suggests the
under 2.5 goals market might be worth a look [1.73].

The first of the most recent three matches, the goalless draw in the Camp Nou was significant in that it marked a real turning point for United. Any pretence that they were still the cavalier side of old went as they packed men behind the ball, despite a starting line-up that included Owen Hargreaves at right-back, and Cristiano Ronaldo, Carlos Tevez and Wayne Rooney. Lionel Messi, playing on the right in those days, was barely involved, so ineffective he was taken off after 62 minutes. This time, of course, it will not be Patrice Evra who is asked to deal with the Argentinian but, after his move into a more central role, some combination of the two centre-backs and whoever United field at the back of the midfield.

In the return at Old Trafford, United took a 14th-minute goal through a Paul Scholes stroke, and held on to it with relative ease despite being without Rooney and Nemanja Vidic. Wes Brown partnered Rio Ferdinand in the centre of defence, with Paul Scholes and Michael Carrick sitting deep in central midfield. Nani was used centrally, playing off Tevez, with Ronaldo to the right and Park Ji-Sung to the left.

Park did a superb job in forcing Gianluca Zambrotta, Barca's right-back, deep, and he will presumably be employed in a similar role on Saturday, although Dani Alves is a far more potent threat going forward than Zambrotta was by that stage of his career. That the South Korean was employed on the other side, against Sylvinho, in the final of two years ago, always seemed odd. He is, quite simply, the best defensive forward in the world, so to ask him to attack the weaker full-back while Rooney came up against Carles Puyol was unusual. Dealing with Alves will be one of the key tasks for United and it's hard to believe Park will not be the man asked to do so.

United were actually much the better side in the first 10 minutes of that final, before lax defending let Eto'o in to score the opener, after which Carrick and Anderson went into meltdown. If Ryan Giggs is Carrick's partner in the centre of midfield, it's hard to imagine a similar capitulation. It may be, though, that Darren Fletcher, who was suspended two years ago, comes in to give United more bite in midfield. If not, it places a huge onus on Rooney, who seems certain to play centrally, to be the ball-winner. He, anyway, will have a responsibility to stifle Sergio Busquets, who pretty much had the run of the pitch in Rome the last time they met.

They're the big outsiders and they ended up on the losing side the last time they met Barcelona in a Champions League final but the Betfair Contrarian is convinced Manchester United will come good on Saturday night....

Matthew Walton looks at the past 18 Champions League/European Cup finals to highlight the trends that count ahead of Saturday's showpiece...

Barcelona drew 1-1 at the Nou Camp tonight which was enough to see them knock out Jose Mourinho's Real Madrid....

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Champions League Betting: Manchester United v Schalke

Champions League / James Eastham / 03 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Rooney celebrates after scoring against Schalke in the first leg in Germany last week

"Half of Man Utd's 26 fixtures in all competitions at Old Trafford, including three of five in this competition, have had under 2.5 goals. That gives you a touch of value about the [2.14] on unders."

This tie may appear a foregone conclusion, but some excellent betting opportunities will still be available on Wednesday night, writes James Eastham.

Introduction

Manchester United go into the game without serious injury problems. Michael Owen may be handed a rare start, with Ryan Giggs expected to be rested.

Schalke centre-back Benedikt Howedes returns to the squad after missing the last three games although is not certain to start.

Match Odds

I'm always reluctant to back sides when they don't need to win, as is the case with United here: they can afford to draw or even lose by one goal and still qualify for the final. It's worth noting the last two sides to win Champions League semi-final first legs away from home - Barcelona in 2006, and Real Madrid in 2002 - both failed to win the return fixtures.

Yet the gulf in class between United and Schalke in the first meeting last week, plus United's remarkable unbeaten home record this season (W23-D3-L0), suggests the hosts should win in 90 minutes. The price of [1.48] on United will be too short for most, but there are no reasons to support either Schalke [8.6] or the draw [4.8].

Under / Over 2.5 goals

United still have a reputation for playing open, attacking football and recording high-scoring victories in home games, but this season's stats don't bear that out. Half of their 26 fixtures in all competitions at Old Trafford, including three of five in this competition, have had under 2.5 goals. That gives you a touch of value about the [2.14] on unders, with overs an unappealing [1.85].

United to win to nil

While Wayne Rooney and Ryan Giggs deservedly hogged the headlines following their performances in the 2-0 first-leg win last week, it is United's defence that has provided the foundations for their run to the brink of the final. They have kept clean sheets in eight of 11 matches in the competition so far, which is testament not only to the brilliance of Edwin van der Sar but also the depth of talent in front of him, with United using no fewer than nine players in their starting backs fours in those games.

If you think United will win but the [1.48] is too short, United winning to nil is a viable alternative, especially as the stats are in your favour: 14 of United's 23 home wins, and 15 of their 26 home fixtures overall, have seen United keeping a clean sheet.

Both Teams not to Score

Backing both teams not to score an alternative to the selection above. This way, you cover not only United winning without conceding a goal, but also the possibility of a 0-0 final scoreline, which is worth having on your side considering United don't need to win the game. The price of [1.92] look excellent value based on United's home stats in all competitions and home and away stats in this competition. Sir Alex Ferguson's side have kept a clean sheet in 15 of 26 fixtures at Old Trafford and eight of 11 games in this competition. On both counts, the figures suggest [1.92] is too big.

Top Stat: United are unbeaten in 26 matches at Old Trafford this season.

Best Bet: United to win to nil @ [2.46].
Other Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [2.14].

United are as good as through to the final after a superb performance in a comprehensive win over Schalke....

Schalke's quarter-final tie produced 10 goals and Sir Alex Ferguson often proclaims himself an attacking coach, but Tobias Gourlay is not convinced Manchester United's latest trip to Germany will be much fun for the neutral...

We can now 'officially' look forward to Barca v Real after the Lilywhites bow out of the competition...

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Champions League Betting: Barcelona v Real Madrid

Champions League / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 02 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Cristiano Ronaldo may let frustration and jealously get the better of him on the night

"But I’d rather take on Cristiano Ronaldo at anything below [2.6]. Yes, he scored against Barcelona in the two prior matches but the first was a penalty and the second came in extra-time. For the most part in the first leg he looked isolated, uninspired and quite frankly, a little fed up. Barcelona will have most of the ball for large periods of the game again and Real’s chances will be at a premium so the smart money is on Ronaldo drawing another blank."

Barca are all but in the final of the Champions League once again. The circumstances are such that another win is on the cards for them with a particularly miserable night for Cristiano Ronaldo, so bet accordingly, says Jamie Pacheco.

First things first. I was surprised Pepe got his marching orders for that challenge on Dani Alves. It was high and a little reckless (even though not much contact was made) but a straight red was inconsistent with the way Wolfgang Stark had refereed the match up to that point.

With the possible exception of Sergio Ramos' booking which was for a downright cynical foul, most of the cards brandished up to then were for persistent fouling. Stark got the Pepe incident wrong but the truth is the blame lies with Alves for making such a meal of it. It's not the first time we've seen the Brazilian do this on a football pitch and he's not alone in doing what he felt he needed to be done to turn a finely-balanced match his team's way. What it means though is that Pep Guardiola's team have lost the right to talk about playing football in the right way and in the right spirit. Because it wasn't just Alves; throughout the match virtually every Barca player was guilty of brandishing imaginary cards, shouting in Stark's face and generally putting pressure on the ref to punish the opposing players. Sadly we've seen plenty of this from Mourinhos' sides in the past but on the night, Barca were just as bad as them.

Match Odds

Barcelona have won 21 of their last 23 matches in all competitions; the other two were league draws against Mallorca and the 1-1 stalemate against Real a few weeks back. For what it's worth, I felt Barcelona were the better side for much of the match well before the sending-off and that the best Real could have hoped for prior to Pepe's dismissal was a goalless draw.

Sergio Ramos is a bit of a loose cannon but Real will miss his positional awareness and experience of playing big matches. The reason Pepe is so important for Real in that anchor role is because of his heading ability that would have allowed him to dominate Barcelona's much smaller midfield when it came to any aerial battles. They'll miss him too.

If you've ever seen Barca play for a draw just because they don't actually need to, you've matched more of them than I have. It's not a huge price at [1.7], but they're that price for a reason.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

The absence of the two aforementioned players will make Real weaker at the back and the chance of goals obviously increases for that reason alone. That said, rarely did Real threaten at all in the first leg so there's no reason why they should all of a sudden pose such a threat at the Camp Nou. Overs will probably pay out one way or another at 1.68 but you'd probably be better off backing Barca 3-0 at [16.0] if you fancy the three goal barrier to be broken.

To Score

There will be plenty wanting to get with Lionel Messi to score once again at odds of [2.0] or better and to be honest, I can't blame them.

But I'd rather take on Cristiano Ronaldo at anything below [2.7]. Yes, he scored against Barcelona in the two prior matches but the first was a penalty and the second came in extra-time. For the most part in the first leg he looked isolated, uninspired and quite frankly, a little fed up. Barcelona will have most of the ball for large periods of the game again and Real's chances will be at a premium so the smart money is on Ronaldo drawing another blank.

To be shown a card?

In normal circumstances the [2.5] on another sending-off in this match would be appealing given what's gone on between these two over the past three weeks. But these aren't normal circumstances because I don't think there's any way a Barcelona player will allow himself to get sent off in the second leg of a tie that is all but done and dusted; that would just be giving Real what they want, irrespective of the latter being knocked out anyway. Meaning [2.5] on a Real player getting his marching orders again, looks a tad short. The better option is to go in search of a couple of Real players who may let the occasion get the better of them.

Alvaro Arbeloa ([2.5)] was given the run-around in the first leg and will be seeing plenty of Lionel Messi running straight at him. Further upfield the aforementioned Cristiano Ronaldo ([4.0]) may have to endure Messi proving once again that it's him and not Ronaldo who is the best player on the planet and this may be the night the Portuguese skipper lets his frustrations out on opponent or referee.

Recommended Bets:

Best Bet: Lay Cristiano Ronaldo to score anytime at [2.7]

Other Recommended Bet: Back Barcelona to win at [1.7]

Barcelona beat Real Madrid tonight with Lionel Messi scoring twice after Pepe was dismissed and have one foot in the final of the Champions League....

Looking ahead to one of the most eagerly-awaited European games in years, James Eastham says Jose Mourinho's resurgent hosts are underestimated against their deadly rivals....

Things have generally gone in the Special One's favour in his battles against the Barca boss. But could Pep Guardiola turn it around in the semi-final of the Champions League?...

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Champions League Betting: Real Madrid v Barcelona

Champions League / James Eastham / 26 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Barcelona celebrate scoring in the Copa del Rey final - will they be celebrating on Wednesday night?

"Home advantage appears to be a definite advantage in Champions League semi-final first legs: the record of home sides at this stage of the competition over the past decade is W9-D8-L3. Those stats suggest the value lies with Real or the draw."

Looking ahead to one of the most eagerly-awaited European games in years, James Eastham says Jose Mourinho's resurgent hosts are underestimated against their deadly rivals.

For Barcelona, Andres Iniesta is a doubt with a calf injury. The visitors have defensive worries, too: Eric Abidal and his understudy Adriano are both missing, so Carles Puyol is being tipped to play at left-back.

For the hosts, Ricardo Carvalho is suspended, so Raul Albiol will partner Sergio Ramos at the heart of the defence. With Germany midfielder Sami Khedira injured, Xabi Alonso and Pepe will line-up in central midfield, as they might have done anyway. Emmanuel Adebayor is expected to lead the forward line ahead of Angel di Maria, Mesut Ozil and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Match Odds

The two recent meetings between the sides (1-1 at Santiago Bernabeu in the league, 0-0 after 90 minutes on neutral territory in the Copa del Rey final) underlined how little there is to choose between them. After the 5-0 mauling he suffered at the hands of Barcelona earlier in the season Jose Mourinho appears to have learned the lesson and made Real much more difficult to beat against their greatest enemies.

It's almost impossible to separate the sides based on those recent head-to-head clashes so the historic tournament stats provide an excellent guide for bettors wanting to stake on the match outcome. Home advantage appears to be a definite advantage in Champions League semi-final first legs: the record of home sides at this stage of the competition over the past decade is W9-D8-L3. Those stats suggest the value lies with Real or the draw, as the hosts are [2.84] to win, the draw [3.4] and Barcelona [2.78]. For me, the best options are backing the draw, laying Barcelona or using the Asian handicap market instead (see below).

Under / Over 2.5 goals

Fifteen of the last 20 Champions League semi-finals have had under 2.5 goals, with an average number of goals per game of 1.6. The price of [1.87] on unders seems too big, especially when you take into account the negative tactics Jose Mourinho has employed in the two meetings between the sides this month.

If you're looking for a bigger price in the goals markets, consider under 1.5 goals at [3.65]. On the basis of the historic stats, the price should be odds-on: 12 of the last 20 semi-final first legs have had under 1.5 goals.

Asian Handicap

If you had backed the home side with a -0 start on the Asian handicap in each of the 20 Champions League semi-final first legs over the past 10 years, you would have had nine winning bets, three losing bets and your stakes returned eight times. In a match where there is so little to choose between the sides on current form, I'm inclined to listen to the historic trends, making Real Madrid -0 at [1.98] a viable alternative to backing either Real or the draw, or laying Barcelona. If the game ends all-square, you'll get your stakes back. If Real win, you'll make a profit.

To Qualify

I would make Barcelona slight rather than strong favourites to win the tie. The Catalans' price of [1.59] to reach the final gives them a 63% chance. This looks too big to me. Real, at [2.68], offer better value.

Top Stat: The average number of goals per game in the last 20 Champions League semi-final first legs is 1.6.

Best Bet: Real Madrid v Barcelona under 2.5 goals @ [1.87].
Other Recommended Bet: Real Madrid -0 Asian handicap @ [1.98].

Things have generally gone in the Special One's favour in his battles against the Barca boss. But could Pepe Guardiola turn it around in the semi-final of the Champions League?...

If you need an explanation of who the two big stars are ahead of this match you don't watch enough football. Magical Matthew Walton tells us how to go about dealing with Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi in the goalscorer...

Ed Hawkins on why Barcelona's greatest strength is also their greatest weakness...

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Champions League Betting: Tottenham Hotspur v Real Madrid

Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 12 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Cristiano Ronaldo always needs something to shout about

"Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon are exactly the sort of player to fly out of the traps and help Spurs make an early breakthrough in their quest for the unprecedented"

Tobias Gourlay identifies the individual players with the motivation to do well in a game that may or may not mean very much to the clubs involved

Tottenham must overturn a four-goal deficit if they are to go through to the semi-finals. No team has ever done that in the Champions League era.

Real Madrid rested the stars of their 4-0 first-leg win at the weekend - Cristiano Ronaldo, Marcelo, Xabi Alonso, Mesut Ozil, Emmanuel Adebayor and Ricardo Carvalho all started on the bench. Karim Benzema and Kaka missed the first leg, but are now fit enough to play.

Harry Redknapp could have done with resting his stars at home to Stoke City on Saturday, but everyone is needed if Spurs must now qualify for next season's Champions League via this season's Premier League. Aaron Lennon is feeling better; otherwise, the injury list is much as it was for the first leg. Peter Crouch, of course, is suspended.

Match Odds

Real Madrid are [2.66] to win at White Hart Lane. Jose Mourinho built this team to counter-attack and presumably that is exactly what they will be allowed to do as Spurs search for their four goals.

Spurs' recent tired performances and Mourinho's apparent desire to put on a good show in England make it hard to argue with Real's status as favourites, but Matthew Walton has done some analysis that might raise a concern. And with Real perhaps thinking already about Saturday's el Clasico, this market should probably be left alone.

Over / Under Goals

Over 2.5 Goals is a [1.73] favourite for this game. It paid out in three group-stage matches at White Hart Lane, then there was a goalless draw with AC Milan.

This season, Real have played a couple of games in France, a place of few goals, but a couple of other European away matches have broken the 2.5-goal barrier.

With the two teams' motivations and priorities not clear, this market is not very enticing either.

To Score

Cristiano Ronaldo has taken more shots than any other player in the Champions League this season, including 14 at the Bernabeu last week. He is embroiled in a personal battle with Leo Messi to prove himself the world's best player and is thus keen to play every game and to play it hard. If Mourinho names a strong team and Ronaldo is available at [2.5] or more To Score, he will be your best bet.

Karim Benzema is actually Real's top-scorer in the Champions League this season with six goals in his last four appearances. He has not played since appearing for France three and a half weeks ago, but until then he had scored in nine of his most recent 11 games for Real. If Mourinho rests Ronaldo for this match so he's fresh for el Clasico and Benzema starts, [3.0] or more would be a tempting price at which to back the Frenchman To Score anytime, not least because competition for a starting place is hotting up as Gonzalo Higuain and Emmanuel Adebayor find fitness and form.

Half Time / Full Time

Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon are exactly the sort of players to fly out of the traps and help Spurs make an early breakthrough in their quest for the unprecedented. Initially, Real will probably be content to defend their aggregate lead and they might not be roused until Mourinho's half-time team talk.

Twelve of Real's 23 Champions League goals this season have come in the final 30 minutes of their matches and it could be that their speedy counter-attacks only break through when the home side gets desperate and starts to tire.

It is very speculative, but you might fancy a punt on Tottenham to be ahead at half-time and Real to be winning at full-time at [34.0] in the Half Time / Full Time market.

Top Stat: Cristiano Ronaldo is averaging seven shots a match in the Champions League this season
Best Bet: Back Cristiano Ronaldo @ [2.5] To Score*
Recommended Bet: Back Tottenham/Real Madrid @ [34.0] Half Time/Full Time

You can now follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

*If he starts and Real play their first XI

After rightly opposing Chelsea in last week's first leg, James Eastham picks out the best bets on the all-English quarter-final return fixture at Old Trafford on Tuesday night....

Rooney on target again as United are backed at [5.0] for rare win at Stamford Bridge. Meanwhile, Barca put Shakhtar to the sword at the Nou Camp......

Peter Crouch was the villain on the night as Real scored four whilst over in Milan, the hosts took a drubbing against Schalke....

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