The Goalscorer Gamble: Mandzukic will be main man at Atletico Madrid

"Last season Britt Assombalonga scored 33 goals in 58 games for Posh, earning the 21-year old a £5m move to Forest."

Back Assombalonga at 2.767/4 to find the net.

Dan Fitch is back with five more goalscorer tips and is expecting Mario Mandzukic to further endear himself to the Atletico Madrid faithful...

Last week's Goalscorer Gamble picks only produced one winner, but at least that man - the Norwich City striker strong>Lewis Grabban - had the good grace to be priced at a juicy 3.02/1. If he carries on scoring at his current rate, then such odds - much like this glorious summer - will soon be nothing more than a distant memory.

We might be saying the same thing about Wilfried Bony before the season ends. He failed to produce the goods when we backed him last week, but with 12 Premier League goals in 2014 - only Daniel Sturridge (13) has scored more - he's still far too big a price.

Bony and his Swansea teammates take on a West Brom side who have drawn all three of their games so far and look set for another difficult season. Back Bony at 2.9215/8 to start making life more difficult today.

A striker who has already made an impact this season is Tottenham's Emmanuel Adebayor. He scored one and made another in last weekend's 4-0 demolition of QPR and looked like the sharp version of Adebayor, rather than the uninterested, lazy one that sometimes rears its head.

On Sunday, Spurs host Liverpool. The visitors will surely give Tottenham more of a challenge than Harry Redknapp's hopeless QPR side mustered, yet they are likely to concede goals in the process. 

In their two opening games, Liverpool have already shipped four goals and it might prove to be another season in which they have to rely upon outscoring the opposition, rather than clean sheets. With Spurs flying after four straight wins, take a chance on Adebayor to score the first goal at 7.5n/a.

After the success of our bet on Grabban last weekend, it makes sense to search for more value in the Championship. The only man to have scored more goals than Grabban in that division is Nottingham Forest's Britt Assombalonga, who has grabbed four in four games as Forest quickly moved to the top of the league.

Having come through the youth ranks at Watford, Assombalonga has scored goals wherever he's gone - first in non-league in loan spells at Wealdstone and Braintree, before proving himself in the professional game with Southend and Peterborough.

Last season he scored 33 goals in 58 games for Posh, earning the 21-year old a £5m move to Forest. So far, he's looked worth the expenditure and could pay off another portion of the fee when his side travel to Sheffield Wednesday today. Like Forest, Wednesday are unbeaten this season, but have conceded in their last two league games. Back Assombalonga at 2.767/4 to find the net.

Another striker producing the goods in a league that is now well underway, is PSV's Memphis Depay. His PSV Eindhoven side lead the Eredivisie after three games, scoring 12 goals in the process.

Depay has scored five of those goals to lead the Dutch scoring charts. He was on target again in midweek, scoring two late goals to send PSV into the group stages of the Europa League and take his total tally to eight in eight games. This weekend PSV host a Vitesse side without a win and currently in the relegation zone. Put faith in Depay to get PSV off the mark at likely odds of 5.59/2.

Another potential lamb to the slaughter, are newly promoted Eibar who this weekend travel to reigning La Liga champions Atletico Madrid. Diego Simeone's side have lost Diego Costa this summer, but look to have replaced him well.

Mario Mandzukic has already endeared himself to the Atletico faithful by scoring the winning goal against Real Madrid in the Super Cup. Mandzukic scored a total of 48 goals in his 88 games for Bayern Munich, which is an impressive statistic for a player that was always in and out of the starting lineup.  

At Atletico, Mandzukic will be the main man and against lowly opposition this weekend, back him to take advantage at a probable price of 1.910/11.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Mandzukic to score at 1.910/11
Back Bony to score at 2.9215/8
Back Adebayor to score first at 7.5n/a
Back Assombalonga to score at 2.767/4
Back Depay to score first at 5.59/2

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Spanish Football: Mourinho wreaks Real Madrid havoc

Jose Mourinho: "It's very easy to analyse the thing with Pepe. His problem has a name, and that name is Raphael Varane. It isn't easy for a man aged 31 with a lot of experience behind him to be blown out of the water by a kid of 19."

With Barcelona's title coronation imminent, Real Madrid's outspoken manager couldn't resist a few scathing digs at those around him...

At Chelsea and subsequently Inter, Jose Mourinho was famed for his father-like love for his players and fierce loyalty to those in the dressing room. However, a tempestuous three-year tenure at Real Madrid now looks set to end in bitter acrimony.

Mourinho, overwhelming favourite for the Chelsea job at around 1.330/100 and second favourite to arrive at Old Trafford after Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement announcement, poured further petrol on the fire he began in the wake of Madrid's Champions League exit to Borussia Dortmund last week.

The Portuguese boss followed up his candid post-match press conference comments, in which he all but pledged his immediate future to managing back in England, by launching scathing attacks on a few of his Madrid players and the club's former managers.

Firstly, he defended his achievements of reaching three Champions League semi-finals at the Bernabeu by reeling off the names of 18 previous managers who hadn't brought home the trophy either.

"Eighteen coaches in 21 years, five semi-finals. Meanwhile, that rubbish Mourinho got to three in three years. Three in three after five in 21 years? That shows that it is not easy. I repeat: I don't want to 'nearly' get there, nearly is nothing to me. But that league record is mine."

But his most stinging comments were reserved for dropped goalkeeper Iker Casillas, by directly suggesting that he should have brought in his replacement at the end of his first season instead of his second.

Mourinho then topped that this week with an even more blatant rant about Pepe, who he has dropped in favour of teenage centre-back Raphael Varane, after the Portuguese defender stuck up for Casillas, saying:

"It's very easy to analyse the thing with Pepe. His problem has a name, and that name is Raphael Varane. It isn't easy for a man aged 31 with a lot of experience behind him to be blown out of the water by a kid of 19."

Anything less than a win for Real over sixth-placed Malaga on Wednesday night, where with Los Blancos rated at 1.292/7, will see Barca lift the title with four games to spare.

Of course, Mourinho still has one more chance of securing another trophy before parting company at the Bernabeu when his side take on Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey 
final next Friday priced at 1.282/7 for glory.

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Man United: Real Madrid exit could end Fergie's reign

"At the ripe old age of 71, you have to question Ferguson's desire to go through the kind of express agony he would have felt at the final whistle last night and will continue to feel for some weeks to come."

Silence speaks louder than words for Sir Alex Ferguson and Christian Crowther believes the great man may now call time on his illustrious career at the end of the season...

You have to feel for Sir Alex Ferguson, for nearly sixty minutes his Real Madrid master plan had been rolled out to near-perfection.

The tie was still very much in the balance but, at 1-0, United seemingly had Real where they wanted them.

Of course we all know what happened next. Now poor old Fergie is understandably distraught and well he might be after seeing possibly his last chance to win a third Champions League trophy slip through his fingers.

On the other side of the coin, following their triumph Jose Mourinho's side are now 3.412/5 favourites to lift the trophy at Wembley in May.

And just to add salt to the wound, Sir Alex's decision to leave Wayne Rooney out of the starting XI may yet be the sting in the tail in the long term.

From a tactical perspective, the decision - up until the sending off - actually looked perfectly vindicated with Danny Welbeck turning in another brilliant display.

However, Rooney's omission may well now stir up previous ill feelings and renew speculation that the England man could move on in the summer, perhaps even to arch rivals Manchester City if you listen to the brasher rumour peddlers.

At the ripe old age of 71, you have to question Ferguson's desire to go through the kind of express agony he would have felt at the final whistle last night and will continue to feel for some weeks to come.

Earlier comparisons to his treble-winning class of 1999 showed exactly the sort of faith Sir Alex had placed in this group of players, so to be knocked out in this cruel fashion will have inflicted a heavy toll.

The fact that the Scot has yet to comment at all on United's exit is a barometer of his anguish, preferring instead to let assistant Mike Phelan speak to the world's media.

Now, a domestic double is the best Fergie can hope for and, although that shouldn't be scoffed at, adding another European Cup has long been the burning desire for the great man.

To lose out again, and in such cruel fashion, could act as the catalyst to Fergie's curtain call at Old Trafford.

The Red Devils have the small matter of a tie against Chelsea to contend with this Sunday, which they are currently rated at 1.855/6 to win.

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Copa del Rey: Real Madrid to land first Clasico blow

"Real Madrid have now taken the lead in each of the last four Clasicos, pouncing within 23 minutes in three of those."
Recommended Bet: Back Real Madrid to score the first goal @ 2.226/5

There is no club game more appetising than El Clasico. The fourth of the season arrives with this Copa del Rey semi-final first leg...

Real Madrid v Barcelona, Wednesday 20:00, Sky Sports 3, Match Odds: Real Madrid 3.39/4, Barcelona 2.26/5, The Draw 3.9n/a

Jose Mourinho may have thrown the towel in on Real Madrid's La Liga defence but at least he still has the opportunity to get one over his club's fiercest rivals in the Copa del Rey.

As always though, the overriding attention will focus on another cosmic collision between the world's top two footballing talents. 

Witnessing Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi pitting wits on the very same pitch is simply special, especially when they've just notched three and four goals in their weekend matches respectively. 

All three meetings between the sides this season - two legs of the Spanish Super Cup and the La Liga meeting - have seen both players' names on either side of the scoresheet. 

In fact, the La Liga Clasico which finished 2-2 at the Camp Nou in October simply became a straight shootout between the mega-star pairing, as they helped themselves to a brace apiece. 

Although Real won the Super Cup on away goals, the 6-6 aggregate tie over three meetings this season shows just how close these encounters have been of late.  

With only one of the last ten Clasicos being decided by more than one goal, it could well come down to a moment of magic from one of the usual suspects. 

Home advantage doesn't seem to matter hugely in these titanic struggles either though, in light of Los Blancos' failed title defence, there may be an extra hunger from Mourinho's men to win this trophy. 

Next Goal

One feature of these recent heavyweight bouts has been Real's ability to land the first telling blow. They have now taken the lead in each of the last four Clasicos, pouncing within 23 minutes in three of those. You have to go back 15 games to find the last time that the capital club were losing a match at half-time. 

Over/Under 3.5 goals
With the exception of the tense 2010/11 Copa del Rey final decided in extra time, the last time El Clasico returned a stalemate was way back in 2002. Thankfully, the pressure of succeeding hasn't got in the way of goalscoring in recent times, with every one of the last nine Clasicos breaking the 2.5 mark and six of the last nine turning up over 3.5, including two of this season's three clashes. 

Best Bet: Back Real Madrid to score the first goal @ 2.226/5
Other Recommended Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.285/4

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Opta Stats: Real Madrid to run riot as Chelsea toil in Benfica

Champions League / Richard / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

After two draws, Real got back to winning ways against Sociedad

"The Portuguese side have not failed to score at home since November 2009."

The Champions League Opta stats point to another comprehensive win for Real Madrid, though it will be a considerably tighter affair in Portugal...

APOEL v Real Madrid

The Cypriot side have netted just one goal in their last four games in the competition
And they are having similar problems in domestic football, having scored just twice in their previous three home matches. APOEL were held to a goalless draw by Omonia Nicosia as recently as Friday. Real Madrid meanwhile have only conceded three goals in their last eight away games in the Champions League.

Jose Mourinho's side have scored 24 goals in their eight games in the Champions League this season; an average of three a game
Real Madrid have netted at least three in four of their previous six fixtures in all competitions, scoring four or more on three occasions. And though APOEL have kept four successive clean sheets at home in domestic football, it's an entirely different story in Europe. In only two of eight Champions League matches this season have the Cypriots prevented their opponents from scoring.

Benfica v Chelsea

The Blues have scored in nine successive European matches for the first time in their history (excl. qualifiers)
Similarly, Benfica have found the net in all but one of their previous 17 matches in European competition (excl. qualifiers). In fact, the Portuguese side have not failed to score at home since November 2009. And prior to their goalless draw with Tottenham, Chelsea had netted in each of their previous five clashes in all competitions.

No side has scored a higher proportion of their goals in the first half of Champions League games this season than Benfica (67%)
There have been a total of six goals scored before the interval in the previous two domestic fixtures at the Estadio da Luz. Chelsea have scored a first-half goal in five of their eight Champions League fixtures, including in both legs against Napoli.

Recommended Bets:
Real Madrid to win to nil v APOEL @ [2.06]
Real Madrid to score three or more v APOEL @ [2.02]
Both teams to score in Benfica v Chelsea @ [1.91]
Over 1.5 goals in the first half in Benfica v Chelsea @ [3.4]

APOEL v Real Madrid, 19:45 GMT, Sky Sports 4, Match Odds: APOEL [14.5], Real Madrid [1.31], The Draw [5.8]. How do you gauge the chances of a side that have no pedigree in a tournament and are the first representatives...

Europe's footballing powerhouse holds the favourites in both of the continent's club competitions and their dominance can continue right through the summer, says Matthew Walton...

Real Madrid were the big winners in the Champions League quarter and semi-final draws, being backed in from [3.8] to [3.1] after being drawn in the opposite half to Barcelona, Chelsea and AC Milan....

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APOEL v Real Madrid: Rookies to crumble against Mourinho's men

Champions League / James Eastham / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Cristiano Ronaldo will be almost impossible to stop in Cyprus

"Real have lost just one of their last 21 Champions League matches (W15-D5-L1), scored 24 times in eight games in this season’s competition, and conceded only three goals in their last eight away games in the tournament. Those formidable stats make the visitors a compelling proposition."

APOEL v Real Madrid, 19:45 GMT, Sky Sports 4, Match Odds: APOEL [14.5], Real Madrid [1.31], The Draw [5.8].

How do you gauge the chances of a side that have no pedigree in a tournament and are the first representatives to make it this far I the competition?

That's the situation bettors are in as Cypriots APOEL prepare to host Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-final first leg in Nicosia on Tuesday night. The absence of virtually any meaningful historic data on the home side makes this a one-off among the last-eight ties, although stats and facts from their unexpectedly successful run in the competition this season suggests their chances of causing an upset are minimal.

Opta stats reveal APOEL have got this far despite winning only three of eight games in the tournament so far. Those victories came over Zenit (2-1), FC Porto (2-1) and Lyon (1-0), all significantly below the standard of the side they face this week. APOEL knocked out Lyon in the last 16 on penalties after a 1-1 draw over the two legs. The low-scoring nature of that tie was no fluke - APOEL have netted just once in their last four Champions League games.

It's impossible to see how they can stop Real Madrid, [3.6] second favourites behind Barcelona to lift the trophy in Munich on May 19. Real have lost just one of their last 21 Champions League matches (W15-D5-L1), scored 24 times in eight games in this season's competition, and conceded only three goals in their last eight away games in the tournament. Those formidable stats make the visitors a compelling proposition.

The [1.31] on a Real victory will be too short for most bettors, so it's best to look for alternatives. Real-Real on the Half time/Full time market is [1.85], although various goals markets are a better fit with the stats above. Real to win to nil is a tempting [2.0], with Real -1.5 Asian handicap [1.79]. With this bet, you'll make a profit if Real win by two goals or more.

The only market where APOEL are worth supporting is the bookings market. With 125 fouls made and 24 yellow cards earned, they have the worst disciplinary record in this season's competition. When there's liquidity in the market, look to back APOEL to pick up more cards than Real.

Best Bet: Real Madrid to win to nil at [2.0].
Other Recommended Bet: Real Madrid -1.5 Asian handicap @ [1.79].

The Champions League Opta stats point to another comprehensive win for Real Madrid, though it will be a considerably tighter affair in Portugal......

Europe's footballing powerhouse holds the favourites in both of the continent's club competitions and their dominance can continue right through the summer, says Matthew Walton...

Real Madrid were the big winners in the Champions League quarter and semi-final draws, being backed in from [3.8] to [3.1] after being drawn in the opposite half to Barcelona, Chelsea and AC Milan....

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Frederik Jensen Wins EPT Madrid Main Event

Poker News / Matthew Pitt / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Frederik Jensen (Photo: Neil Stoddart, official photographer of the EPT)

This is Jensen's first major title of his career and it finally kicks the proverbial monkey off his shoulder as until this tournament he had a number of near misses in major events.

A little under a week ago a total of 477 players started the Madrid Main Event of the European Poker Tour and they were all outlasted by one man, Denmark's Frederik Jensen, the newest EPT champion.

This is Jensen's first major title of his career and it finally kicks the proverbial monkey off his shoulder as until this tournament he had a number of near misses in major events. In 2010 he came second in the Aussie Millions Main Event, third in a €5,000 side event at the EPT Grand Final , sixth in the EPT Vilamoura Main Event and fifth in a €5,000 six max side event at EPT Barcelona. Now he has his first outright win and let's not forget about the €495,000 winner's prize.

The eight-handed final table lasted 11-hours, including breaks, and was the home of a number of talented poker players. It took almost two full 75-minute levels for the table to lose its first player, Jason Duval moving all in with 7h-7c and losing out to the Ah-Kd of Andrei Stoenescu when the latter flopped a pair of aces.

Next to go was EPT regular Nicolas Levi and his trademark Trilby hat. This was Frenchman Levi's third EPT fial table appearance but he is going to have to make a fourth if he wants an EPT title. He started as the short-stack and just could not dig his way out of that particular hole and his misery was ended when he shoved with Ks-Qd bit could not pair either of his holecards to beat the pocket sevens of rapper Bruno "Kool Shen" Lopes. Shortly afterwards Ilan Boujenah's hopes of taking the title back to Israel were ended when he committed his stack with As-Js on an Ac-Jd-10h-5d-5h board only to discover Lopes was sat there with Kh-Qh all the time for the nut straight.

In the EPT's eight long seasons there is yet to be a Spanish winner and that record will last until at least EPT Campione in a week's time because Ricardo Ibanez busted out in fifth place when he open-shoved from the small blind with ace-deuce but did not count on Stoenescu waking up in the big blind with a pair of ladies, which held, to send the last standing Spaniard to the rail much to the disappointment of the Spaniards in the crowd.

Cash-game specialist Stoenescu then found queens again to send Lopes home in fourth spot. Fraser Macintyre had opened the betting with a standard raise and Lopes three-bet all-in over the top with what turned out to be Ad-10d. Unfortunately for him Stoenescu found the queens again and reshoved over the top, forcing Macintyre to fold. The board ran out 7h-4d-2s-3d-6s and then there were just three players remaining.

The surviving trio then struck a deal that saw Macintyre lock up €290,000, Stoenescu €330,000 and Jensen €385,000 with the remainder of the prizepool going to whoever eventually won the title. That turned out not to be Stoenescu as his Kd-8h lost to Jensen's 7s-6s after the pair got it on on a 10d-8s-5s flop. The Ks turn gave the Romanian some hope but the Qc river was not what he needed and the tournament entered the heads-up phase.

Jensen entered the one-on-one battle with a 2:1 chip advantage and it only took 15-minutes for him to press this advantage home. Macintyre was all in with As-9d against the Ac-10h of Jensen and when the board ran out Js-8d-4d-Qh-Qs it was game over for the Scot and Jensen had won his first major title.

The EPT now heads to Campione on the Swiss / Italian border. I'll be there in a reporting capacity and I'm sure Jensen will be too. The last two EPT titles have been one by Danes, will Campione be the third on the spin? We will find out in a week or so's time.

EPT Madrid final table results

1st: Frederik Jensen - €495,000
2nd: Fraser Macintyre - €290,000
3rd: Andrei Stoenescu - €330,000
4th: Bruno Lopes - €140,000
5th: Ricardo Ibanez - €115,000
6th: Ilan Boujenah - €92,000
7th: Nicolas Levi - €69,450
8th: Jason Duval - €48,000

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Twenty-four poker players sat down in their seats inside the Gran Casino Madrid yesterday afternoon knowing that if they managed to make it through the day then they would have reached the final table of the European Poker Tour Main...

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Opta Stats: Real Madrid v CSKA Moscow

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Cristiano Ronaldo scored Real Madrid an all-important away goal in Moscow

Did CSKA Moscow's late equaliser in Russia merely delay the inevitable, or can they stun Real Madrid at the Bernabeu? Here's the Opta take on things...

Real Madrid have qualified to the Champions League knockout stage for the 15th consecutive season, currently the longest run.

The Russian side have never lost a European match against Spanish opposition, winning three and drawing three.

This is only CSKA's second appearance in the last 16 of the Champions League. In 2009-10 they eliminated a Spanish side -Sevilla - winning the second leg 2-1 on the road after a 1-1 home draw.

After an away draw in the first leg of a knockout round, Real have progressed in 11 out of 12 cases in the history of the European Cup. In 1991 though, Spartak Moscow eliminated Madrid with a 3-1 away win at the Bernabeu following a goalless draw in Russia.

Real Madrid have lost just one of their last 20 Champions League games, but the draw in the first leg was the first game they failed to win this season - after 18 points and a +17 goal difference in the group stage, the best Champions League group stage performance in history.

All three goals that Real Madrid have conceded in the Champions League this season have come in the last 10 minutes of play.

Real haven't conceded a first-half goal in their last 21 Champions League games.

CSKA are unbeaten in Champions League away games this season (one win, two draws), but they failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their last 12 Champions League away fixtures.

Real have won eight of their last nine Champions League home games.

Real Madrid have kept five clean sheets in their seven Champions League matches this season (more than any other side).

Real Madrid have kept 13 clean sheets in 19 Champions League games under Jose Mourinho.

Jose Mourinho has lost just three of his last 32 matches as a coach in the Champions League, with all three defeats at the hands of Barcelona.

50% of CSKA Moscow's Champions League goals this season have been scored by Seydou Doumbia (five out of 10).

Michael Lintorn has looked over the Opta stats and found reasons for Bayern Munich fans to be optimistic, but very few positives omens for Inter......

Inter's first win in ten away to Chievo on Friday prompted tears of joy from Claudio Ranieri. Will there be even wilder celebrations against Marseille?...

Bayern Munich's fierce European home record suggests that this round-of-16 tie is far from finished despite FC Basel's shock first-leg triumph......

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La Liga Weekend Matches: Real Madrid know the power of four

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 27 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Iker Casillas faces a seriously out-of-form Real Zaragoza attack this weekend

"Real Madrid have scored at least four times in 7/8 home games with teams that aren't Barcelona"

As Manolo Jimenez drags a sorry-looking Real Zaragoza to the Bernabeu for a beating, Tobias Gourlay ponders the decline of Villarreal and how to make money out of it

Real Madrid v Real Zaragoza
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Real [1.09] Zaragoza [42.0] draw [14.5]

Another easy league win follows another failure to beat Barcelona?

Yep. Real are unopposable at home - unless they're playing Pep's team.

For variety's sake this column will run you through a slightly different set of stats from last week's. The inspiration is still Opta's.

Real have won their last 14 league games against teams that don't play in blaugrana and their all-time home league record at home to Zaragoza is W47-D6-L4.

Bottom-of-the-table Zaragoza have the joint-worst away record in this season's competition (W0-D3-L7) and are 12 matches without a win anywhere. Three more games with no joy and they'll have matched their all-time worst streak.

One faint, faint glimmer of hope for the visitors: Barcelona aside, they are the last team to win at the Bernabeu (3-2 in April last year). But Real had given up the chase by then. This time they're leading the race.

Well, at least it's a good chance for Iker Casillas to keep a rare clean sheet. Real have conceded in 8/9 at the Bernabeu so far this season, but Zaragoza have scored just twice in their last eight league games. Unfortunately, the market does not recognise the rarity of a Real clean sheet and is offering only [1.61] on Casillas going unbeaten.

If only Zaragoza were a bit more prolific - they've scored once in the three games since Manolo Jimenez replaced Javier Aguirre - they could perhaps have kept up with Real until half-time - like 4/8 non-Catalan visitors to the Bernabeu - before capitulating in the second half. Draw/Real Madrid is on offer at [6.6], but it's a double-result that usually requires the away team to score before half-time in order to finish the first-half 1-1.

A week ago, this column made a bit of money backing Any Unquoted in the Correct Score market. The price has plummeted for the visit of Zaragoza, however. We were paid out at [3.0] last Sunday; this time you would only be rewarded at evens. But because it's been a winner in 7/8 league games against teams that aren't Barcelona, it's still a value bet.

Recommended Bet: Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ [2.02]

Villarreal v Barcelona
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Villarreal [13.0] Barcelona [1.29] draw [6.4]

In the summer, this fixture looked like it would be among the trickiest that Barcelona would face all season. The champions' all-time record at El Madrigal is only W6-D1-L5, even if Pep Guardiola has won 3/3 here. And Villarreal finished fourth last year.

But the Yellow Submarine from the Valencia suburbs sold a couple of Spain internationals before the season began - Santi Cazorla and Joan Capdevila - and lost Italian star striker Giuseppe Rossi to a season-ending injury in October. There is still talent in the ranks - Nilmar and Borja Valero have more than their fair share of it - but Villarreal sank to 17th at Christmas.

Unlike many Spanish clubs, it takes a lot for them to sack a manager, but that was enough. Juan Carlos Garrido, a long-serving club man, was fired and replaced by someone else who had worked his way up coaching the reserve teams, Jose Molina. The former goalie will be expected to uphold the tradition of sharp, accurate passing football established by Manuel Pellegrini.

This weekend he comes up against the masters of that style. Andres Iniesta and Alexis Sanchez were injured in the Copa del Rey clash with Real Madrid, and some of the others might have been tired by it - it was the tenth clasico since the start of last season, after all - but Pep's team are strong favourites to record a second consecutive away win for only the second time this season.

Those injuries are important because they improve Cesc Fabregas' chances of starting the game. If he does start, his record of scoring in five of the six away games he's played this season make him a value bet in the goalscorer markets market. And, although Barca have struggled on the road this season, scoring first has not been a problem. Like Real, who have a much better record, they have hit the net before their opponents in 14 of their last 20 away matches. Fabregas should become available around [7.0] in the First Goalscorer market.

Recommended Bet: Back Cesc Fabregas to be First Goalscorer @ [7.0]

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

Barcelona reached the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey, but the immense show of character by Real Madrid at a testing time rendered them the real winners......

The winners of tonight's Copa del Rey quarter-final Clasico could meet minnows Mirandes in the final after they caused another huge upset against Espanyol......

Jose Mourinho's time at the Bernabeu may soon be up as a result of fan dissatisfaction, rumours of unrest amongst senior Spanish players and a continued inability to beat Barcelona. What next for the Special One, asks Hannah Duncan....

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Barcelona v Real Madrid: Fabregas to help Barca to another win

Spanish Football / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Cesc Fabregas has few regrets about leaving Arsenal

"He (Fabregas) has 13 goals so far this season and six in his last six matches. He offers better value at [2.7] to score than Lionel Messi at odds-on.

Barcelona are very much in the driving seat after a 2-1 wi in the first leg but they won't be taking their feet off the gas given who they're up against. Cesc Fabregas is a good bet to score in yet another win for Pep Guardiola, says Jamie Pacheco.

You've got to feel for Jose Mourinho. However well Real Madrid play, however many goals they score, however much they entertain, it's never enough. It's never enough because whatever they do, Barcelona seem to do it a little better. Time and time again.

But maybe we shouldn't feel sorry for him. Football fans talk about singing when you're winning. When he was winning the Champions League with FC Porto, the Premier League with Chelsea and knocking the same Barcelona out of the Champions League en route to winning it with Inter Milan, there was plenty of singing. There was plenty of boasting, inventing of nicknames and goading, too. He enjoyed those moments, making himself come across as a genius who knew more than his counterparts, prepared better for games than them and motivated his players that little bit better. The problem with not winning gracefully is that you're an obvious target when you stop winning. That said, whereas he may have expected some abuse from other clubs' fans, I'm not sure he expected it from his own. Let's not forget that Real Madrid are after all still in the Champions League and still top of La Liga.

Match Odds

When we previewed this match last week, we reminded our dear reader of the cold facts. Real Madrid hadn't beaten Barcelona in their last 12 attempts. After last week's result, it's now 13.

Barcelona's price seems a bit too big. They're the ones who are on a high after last week's win and there's unlikely to be any chance of them just managing their lead and trying to settle for a draw. Firstly because Barca don't play for draws and secondly because any chance to run their rivals' noses in it is a good chance.

There's also a danger that if things don't go their way, Real's players may start to lose their discipline, something that we don't often see too much amongst Barcelona's. A sending-off is short enough at [2.4] so we won't be going for that but if there is one, it's likely to be a Real player taking an early bath and playing with ten men against Barcelona is nigh-on impossible. Either way, Barcelona are worth a bet at [1.68].

Both teams to score?

The "yes" option served us very well last week after being flagged up as the best bet of the match. The price is exactly the same ([1.68]) as it was last week but with Real having no choice but to chase the tie, our chances of the bet being landed are even better. For all their attacking prowess, it's now five straight matches that Barcelona have gone without keeping a clean sheet. We have no concerns about Barcelona not scoring (they've scored in 33 of 35 matches this season) and though it may well prove irrelevant in the context of the tie, Real should manage at least one.

To Score

Cesc Fabregas has been in outstanding goalscoring form this campaign. Any suspicions that he'd find it hard to get a game have surely been dissipated. In part that's because of his versatility which allows him to play in just about every position of the forward six in Barcelona's 4-3-3 (bar that of the central striker), in part because Barcelona play so many matches that rotation is essential rather than preferable and finally for the simple reason that he's a wonderful player. He has 13 goals so far this season and six in his last six matches. He offers better value at [2.7] to score than Lionel Messi at odds-on.

To be shown a card

We've saved the best for last. What's happened in the last few years to that kid with the wonder left foot, mummy's boy haircut and placid temperament? A few things. For starters he's turned into the best player on the planet bar none, he cut his hair when he realised supermodels don't date anyone with that bad a haircut and lastly, he's started to give a little back in the old retribution stakes. It's little wonder given the atrocities that are done to him during 90 minutes by opposition defenders but in the process Lionel Messi has picked up three bookings in his last six matches. He's likely to be provoked plenty in this game, and not just by Pepe. Look to get a price of around [3.6] on Messi being cautioned again.

Best Bet: Back Barcelona to win @ [1.68]

Recommended Bets:

Back Cesc Fabregas to score @ [2.7]
Back Lionel Messi to be shown a card at [3.6]

Dressing room bust-ups, indiscipline on the field and a viscious press are making life difficult for Jose Mourinho, says Ben Lyttleton. But the Special One's team remain top of La Liga and could well deny Barcelona a fourth consecutive title......

Tobias Gourlay previews Barcelona's trip to the Rose Garden of nouveau riche Malaga and the daunting task facing Marcelo Bielsa and Athletic Bilbao at the Bernabeu...

Pepe's vicious attack has attracted much of the attention following Barcelona's latest Clasico triumph, but Jose Mourinho isn't proving too popular either......

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La Liga Betting: Real Madrid surge clear of beaten Barcelona

Spanish Football / Michael Lintorn / 28 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Real Madrid are now six points clear and strong favourites to win La Liga

"Barcelona have a chance to do some damage limitation on Tuesday when they entertain Rayo Vallecano."

Real Madrid punished Barcelona's first loss of 2011-12, virtually guaranteeing that they will enter the first Clasico of the campaign in top spot.

How can a team who have been flawless on their Champions League travels continue to perform so ineptly on the road domestically? That question is sure to give Pep Guardiola a few restless nights after his side fell six points behind Real Madrid.

Just days after claiming a fifth successive away European victory against Italian champions AC Milan, Barcelona were felled 1-0 in the Spanish capital by lowly Getafe, who had won only two of their first dozen La Liga games.

The occasion marked the title holders' first defeat in 28 matches, but while that unbeaten run deserves plenty of credit, a loss as visitors had been on the cards, albeit appearing more likely to occur on their return to Madrid in a fortnight for the Clasico.

Guardiola's men, who haven't failed to finish first in any of his three seasons as coach, have taken just nine points from a possible 18 away from the Camp Nou, and their two triumphs were 1-0s against struggling Sporting Gijon and Grenada.

Real Madrid negotiated another potentially tricky tie earlier on Saturday with a seventh straight win over neighbours Atletico to extend a lead that on current form they will be optimistic of increasing further when they welcome their rivals.

And having emerged as favourites in the aftermath of their 3-2 success at third-placed Valencia a week ago, they are now clear frontrunners at [1.57], with Barcelona flying all the way out to [2.76].

Barca have a chance to do some damage limitation on Tuesday when they entertain Rayo Vallecano, who have only lost two of their seven away fixtures since promotion, pocketing as many points as the champions.

Victor Valdes and co haven't been breached once at home in domestic action, so it's no shock that they are [1.08] to close the gap to three points. Rayo have been defeated by more than one goal just twice though, so consider opposing Barcelona to win both halves at [1.48].

Tobias Gourlay expects Real Madrid to win the city derby with Atletico as usual, but wonders whether Barcelona will struggle on their trip to the Spanish capital...

Tobias Gourlay expects Real Madrid to increase the gap between the big two and the rest with a win at third-placed Valencia on Saturday night...

It may only be November, but this is already shaping up to be a crucial game in the race for the La Liga title...

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Madrid Masters Daily Tips: Del Potro can shade Nadal on the handicap

Events / Ben Caudell / 05 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Juan Martin Del Potro has found some serious form on clay over the last two weeks

"Although it’s extremely hard to oppose a Nadal win tonight, there is a strong possibility that Del Potro can take a set off the world No. 1. But my best bet will be to back Del Potro +4.5 Games at even money in the match handicap market."

Nadal is the undisputed king of clay and he should, as ever, find some way of beating Juan Martin Del Potro.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Juan Martin Del Potro

Thursday's pick of matches involves a pair of Grand Slam winners that will take centre stage and top billing at the Madrid Masters this evening.

World No. 1 Rafael Nadal faces Juan Martin Del Potro - the 2009 US Open Champion - for the ninth time in his career and for the second time in 2011; he currently leads their head-to-head series 5-3.

The Spaniard, who won this event last year defeating Roger Federer in the final, will have his work cut out today against the Argentine who looks to has finally recovered from a wrist injury that kept him out of the most part of the 2010 season. Del Potro has gone from strength to strength since his return and is a strong contender as the number one threat to Nadal's 2011 French Open campaign; he is currently joint-third favourite with Roger Federer, priced at [20.0].

There is no doubting Rafael Nadal's credentials on the clay, he is by far the best player to have ever graced the dirt and his statistics on the surface speak wonders. The Mallorca native has amassed 35 wins in a row on clay and is now 187-6 overall on the surface since 2005.

But the altitude and the stadium courts here play more like an indoor court than outdoor and help the bigger servers in the game with the speed of ball in the air a lot faster than at any other clay court tournament. This was highlighted when Del Potro won 80 per cent of service points to cruise past Marin Cilic 6-3 6-0 in just 64 minutes. His big serve could again benefit the Argentine when he faces Nadal tonight.

The Tandil native's recent form has been up there with the best. He won the Estoril Open last week defeating the number one and two seeds Robin Soderling and Fernando Verdasco respectively( both in straight sets) and he's won seven in a row on clay, seven of the last eight in Madrid and seven in a row in Europe.

Although it's extremely hard to oppose a Nadal win tonight, there is a strong possibility that Del Potro can take a set off the world No. 1. But my best bet will be to back Del Potro +4.5 Games at even money in the match handicap market. From their previous six best-of-three set matches the pair have played, only two have been won by Nadal by more than 4.5 Games. Furthermore, since the court surface change from indoor hard to clay in 2009, Nadal has won by this same margin of games just four out of his last ten matches.

Recommended Bets:

Back Del Potro +4.5 Games @ [2.0]

Gilles Simon is a wily and resilient opponent but stats and form suggest it should be a pretty comfortable match for Andy Murray, says Ben Caudell....

The one-time world number three is back and Ben Caudell anticipates another victory for him in the Spanish capital on day two......

Two big-serving Americans go head-to-head this afternoon on the red dirt of Madrid and we should see the more experienced of the two prevail, says Ben Caudell....

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Champions League Betting: Barcelona v Real Madrid

Champions League / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 02 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Cristiano Ronaldo may let frustration and jealously get the better of him on the night

"But I’d rather take on Cristiano Ronaldo at anything below [2.6]. Yes, he scored against Barcelona in the two prior matches but the first was a penalty and the second came in extra-time. For the most part in the first leg he looked isolated, uninspired and quite frankly, a little fed up. Barcelona will have most of the ball for large periods of the game again and Real’s chances will be at a premium so the smart money is on Ronaldo drawing another blank."

Barca are all but in the final of the Champions League once again. The circumstances are such that another win is on the cards for them with a particularly miserable night for Cristiano Ronaldo, so bet accordingly, says Jamie Pacheco.

First things first. I was surprised Pepe got his marching orders for that challenge on Dani Alves. It was high and a little reckless (even though not much contact was made) but a straight red was inconsistent with the way Wolfgang Stark had refereed the match up to that point.

With the possible exception of Sergio Ramos' booking which was for a downright cynical foul, most of the cards brandished up to then were for persistent fouling. Stark got the Pepe incident wrong but the truth is the blame lies with Alves for making such a meal of it. It's not the first time we've seen the Brazilian do this on a football pitch and he's not alone in doing what he felt he needed to be done to turn a finely-balanced match his team's way. What it means though is that Pep Guardiola's team have lost the right to talk about playing football in the right way and in the right spirit. Because it wasn't just Alves; throughout the match virtually every Barca player was guilty of brandishing imaginary cards, shouting in Stark's face and generally putting pressure on the ref to punish the opposing players. Sadly we've seen plenty of this from Mourinhos' sides in the past but on the night, Barca were just as bad as them.

Match Odds

Barcelona have won 21 of their last 23 matches in all competitions; the other two were league draws against Mallorca and the 1-1 stalemate against Real a few weeks back. For what it's worth, I felt Barcelona were the better side for much of the match well before the sending-off and that the best Real could have hoped for prior to Pepe's dismissal was a goalless draw.

Sergio Ramos is a bit of a loose cannon but Real will miss his positional awareness and experience of playing big matches. The reason Pepe is so important for Real in that anchor role is because of his heading ability that would have allowed him to dominate Barcelona's much smaller midfield when it came to any aerial battles. They'll miss him too.

If you've ever seen Barca play for a draw just because they don't actually need to, you've matched more of them than I have. It's not a huge price at [1.7], but they're that price for a reason.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

The absence of the two aforementioned players will make Real weaker at the back and the chance of goals obviously increases for that reason alone. That said, rarely did Real threaten at all in the first leg so there's no reason why they should all of a sudden pose such a threat at the Camp Nou. Overs will probably pay out one way or another at 1.68 but you'd probably be better off backing Barca 3-0 at [16.0] if you fancy the three goal barrier to be broken.

To Score

There will be plenty wanting to get with Lionel Messi to score once again at odds of [2.0] or better and to be honest, I can't blame them.

But I'd rather take on Cristiano Ronaldo at anything below [2.7]. Yes, he scored against Barcelona in the two prior matches but the first was a penalty and the second came in extra-time. For the most part in the first leg he looked isolated, uninspired and quite frankly, a little fed up. Barcelona will have most of the ball for large periods of the game again and Real's chances will be at a premium so the smart money is on Ronaldo drawing another blank.

To be shown a card?

In normal circumstances the [2.5] on another sending-off in this match would be appealing given what's gone on between these two over the past three weeks. But these aren't normal circumstances because I don't think there's any way a Barcelona player will allow himself to get sent off in the second leg of a tie that is all but done and dusted; that would just be giving Real what they want, irrespective of the latter being knocked out anyway. Meaning [2.5] on a Real player getting his marching orders again, looks a tad short. The better option is to go in search of a couple of Real players who may let the occasion get the better of them.

Alvaro Arbeloa ([2.5)] was given the run-around in the first leg and will be seeing plenty of Lionel Messi running straight at him. Further upfield the aforementioned Cristiano Ronaldo ([4.0]) may have to endure Messi proving once again that it's him and not Ronaldo who is the best player on the planet and this may be the night the Portuguese skipper lets his frustrations out on opponent or referee.

Recommended Bets:

Best Bet: Lay Cristiano Ronaldo to score anytime at [2.7]

Other Recommended Bet: Back Barcelona to win at [1.7]

Barcelona beat Real Madrid tonight with Lionel Messi scoring twice after Pepe was dismissed and have one foot in the final of the Champions League....

Looking ahead to one of the most eagerly-awaited European games in years, James Eastham says Jose Mourinho's resurgent hosts are underestimated against their deadly rivals....

Things have generally gone in the Special One's favour in his battles against the Barca boss. But could Pep Guardiola turn it around in the semi-final of the Champions League?...

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Madrid Masters Monday Tips: Fish to hunt Isner down

Events / Ben Caudell / 02 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

There are plenty of reasons to be backing Mardy Fish against John Isner today

"The stats are definitely in favour of the 2006 ATP Comeback Player of the Year to dispatch of his rival: the 29 year-old has won four of his last five matches at Master Series level, seven in a row when his opponent is a fellow countrymen and he has won 74% of his last 50 matches overall."

Two big-serving Americans go head-to-head this afternoon on the red dirt of Madrid and we should see the more experienced of the two prevail, says Ben Caudell.

John Isner (USA) v Mardy Fish (USA)

We kick-start our Madrid Masters campaign on Monday with an all-American affair between two players not accustomed to playing on the slower European clay courts.

Mardy Fish, seeded 11, represents my value bet of the day and can be backed at a decent [1.70] in the match odds. The Miami Masters semi-finalist has a a distinct advantage coming into today's contest, having already defeated his American rival John Isner in their two previous meetings. Both matches took place within the last couple of years on hard court surfaces that are arguably more advantageous to the big serving Isner (Atlanta July 2010 4-6 6-4 7-6) and (San Jose, Feb 2009 6-2 6-7 7-5) in the first place. With this match-up taking place on clay, the advantage most certainly lies with Mardy.

Having reached an all-time high of 10 in the ATP Tour World Rankings earlier in the month thanks to a successful American hard-court campaign that saw the Florida resident reach three semi-finals (Memphis, Delray Beach, and Miami), Fish will be looking to sustain his run of good form going into the European clay court swing. Isner is definitely there for the taking as a player who struggles with the slower pace and movement on the red stuff.

The stats are definitely in favour of the 2006 ATP Comeback Player of the Year to dispatch of his rival: the 29 year-old has won four of his last five matches at Master Series level, seven in a row when his opponent is a fellow countrymen and he has won 74% of his last 50 matches overall. Fish also has a higher ranking, match and surface rating and is yet to lose to this opponent as we've seen already.

Isner has lost four of his last five matches in Europe and five of his last six when priced as an underdog, giving me even more reason to side with the top ranked American.

Recommended Bet:

Back Mardy Fish @ 1.70 to win match

We haven't seen much of Novak Djokovic on clay yet this season and he'll probably have to beat Rafael Nadal in the final to win this title. But he's more than capable of doing just that, says Sean Calvert....

There's a multitude of clay court tournaments for Sean Calvert to pick from in his weekly tennis betting preview and with no Nadal around at least there's a chance of picking a winner at a healthy price...

Sean has started the clay court season in style and just like Rafael Nadal, he means to kick on. Here's why Robin Soderling is one of two players who can challenge Rafa this week....

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Champions League Betting: Real Madrid v Barcelona

Champions League / James Eastham / 26 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Barcelona celebrate scoring in the Copa del Rey final - will they be celebrating on Wednesday night?

"Home advantage appears to be a definite advantage in Champions League semi-final first legs: the record of home sides at this stage of the competition over the past decade is W9-D8-L3. Those stats suggest the value lies with Real or the draw."

Looking ahead to one of the most eagerly-awaited European games in years, James Eastham says Jose Mourinho's resurgent hosts are underestimated against their deadly rivals.

For Barcelona, Andres Iniesta is a doubt with a calf injury. The visitors have defensive worries, too: Eric Abidal and his understudy Adriano are both missing, so Carles Puyol is being tipped to play at left-back.

For the hosts, Ricardo Carvalho is suspended, so Raul Albiol will partner Sergio Ramos at the heart of the defence. With Germany midfielder Sami Khedira injured, Xabi Alonso and Pepe will line-up in central midfield, as they might have done anyway. Emmanuel Adebayor is expected to lead the forward line ahead of Angel di Maria, Mesut Ozil and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Match Odds

The two recent meetings between the sides (1-1 at Santiago Bernabeu in the league, 0-0 after 90 minutes on neutral territory in the Copa del Rey final) underlined how little there is to choose between them. After the 5-0 mauling he suffered at the hands of Barcelona earlier in the season Jose Mourinho appears to have learned the lesson and made Real much more difficult to beat against their greatest enemies.

It's almost impossible to separate the sides based on those recent head-to-head clashes so the historic tournament stats provide an excellent guide for bettors wanting to stake on the match outcome. Home advantage appears to be a definite advantage in Champions League semi-final first legs: the record of home sides at this stage of the competition over the past decade is W9-D8-L3. Those stats suggest the value lies with Real or the draw, as the hosts are [2.84] to win, the draw [3.4] and Barcelona [2.78]. For me, the best options are backing the draw, laying Barcelona or using the Asian handicap market instead (see below).

Under / Over 2.5 goals

Fifteen of the last 20 Champions League semi-finals have had under 2.5 goals, with an average number of goals per game of 1.6. The price of [1.87] on unders seems too big, especially when you take into account the negative tactics Jose Mourinho has employed in the two meetings between the sides this month.

If you're looking for a bigger price in the goals markets, consider under 1.5 goals at [3.65]. On the basis of the historic stats, the price should be odds-on: 12 of the last 20 semi-final first legs have had under 1.5 goals.

Asian Handicap

If you had backed the home side with a -0 start on the Asian handicap in each of the 20 Champions League semi-final first legs over the past 10 years, you would have had nine winning bets, three losing bets and your stakes returned eight times. In a match where there is so little to choose between the sides on current form, I'm inclined to listen to the historic trends, making Real Madrid -0 at [1.98] a viable alternative to backing either Real or the draw, or laying Barcelona. If the game ends all-square, you'll get your stakes back. If Real win, you'll make a profit.

To Qualify

I would make Barcelona slight rather than strong favourites to win the tie. The Catalans' price of [1.59] to reach the final gives them a 63% chance. This looks too big to me. Real, at [2.68], offer better value.

Top Stat: The average number of goals per game in the last 20 Champions League semi-final first legs is 1.6.

Best Bet: Real Madrid v Barcelona under 2.5 goals @ [1.87].
Other Recommended Bet: Real Madrid -0 Asian handicap @ [1.98].

Things have generally gone in the Special One's favour in his battles against the Barca boss. But could Pepe Guardiola turn it around in the semi-final of the Champions League?...

If you need an explanation of who the two big stars are ahead of this match you don't watch enough football. Magical Matthew Walton tells us how to go about dealing with Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi in the goalscorer...

Ed Hawkins on why Barcelona's greatest strength is also their greatest weakness...

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Big Match Tactical View: Real Madrid v Barcelona

Champions League / Michael Cox / 26 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Madrid stop Messi?

"It’s difficult to refute the idea that Mourinho has won the battle so far."

Things have generally gone in the Special One's favour in his battles against the Barca boss. But could Pepe Guardiola turn it around in the semi-final of the Champions League?

One of the greatest possible match-ups for a European football semi-final; Real Madrid v Barcelona, Jose Mourinho v Pep Guardiola, two legs, one final place up for grabs. We may have seen these teams face-off twice in recent weeks, but this two-legged tie is far, far more important than the league or Copa del Rey matches.

Those matches provided plenty of clues about how this tie will shape up, however, and it's difficult to refute the idea that Mourinho has won the battle so far. In the league game he managed to snatch a point from 1-0 down despite being reduced to ten men, and in the cup final Real started better, weathered the storm in the second half, and then pounced in extra-time.

Interestingly, he used completely different tactics in the two matches. In the League, Real sat relatively deep behind the ball and let Barcelona play, seeking to attack mainly on the break to exploit Barcelona's high line. In the Cup, Real pressed higher up the pitch - they played without a traditional striker, used Cristiano Ronaldo up front, and also pushed Pepe forward ahead of Xabi Alonso in a 4-1-4-1 system, using he and Sami Khedira as aggressive midfield hustlers to get into the faces of Xavi Hernandez, Andres Iniesta and Sergio Busquets.

The danger for Mourinho is that he may have used his joker already, even before the most important battle. Using Pepe as a midfielder and Ronaldo as a forward were moves many expected, but not in the first two games. His other idea may be to use Marcelo as a left-winger with Alvaro Arbeloa at left-back in order to stop the dangerous runs of Daniel Alves from right-back - but that might be a little too defensive for the first leg at the Bernabeu.

Of course, in these Guardola v Mourinho contests (and this game is the eighth in the last two seasons between the two, with the ninth coming next week) we're used to going into the games thinking that the ball is in Mourinho's court. We usually know how Guardiola will set his side out, and it's up to Mourinho to find the tactics to stop Barca. That might not be the case here, however. Barcelona looked rather impotent in the cup final against Real - with Xavi and Iniesta denied time on the ball, Messi had to drop deeper and deeper to try and create, which meant Barcelona's main goal threat was further away from the Real Madrid goal.

David Villa has been desperately out of form - though he did score at the weekend - and Pedro Rodriguez has been rushed back, and isn't 100% fit. It's not unthinkable that Guardiola could vary his tactics, by dropping one of Villa or Pedro in order to play an extra man in midfield - Javier Mascherano, perhaps - and push Andres Iniesta into the front three. This would mean Iniesta could drop back and provide some creativity, leaving Messi able to play higher up the pitch. Aside from that, expect Guardiola's usual side, as Carles Puyol looks like being fit in time.

Mourinho has been hampered by the loss of Sami Khedira, who will miss both these matches. The return of Lassana Diarra is a boost, but whether he can play that hustling role as effectively as Khedira remains to be seen. Mourinho could also call upon Esteban Granero, an intelligent central midfielder, to play alongside Xabi Alonso and Pepe. Real have been very physical in the centre of the pitch, and one would expect the same again. They've also had a red card in each of the three Clasicos so far this season, and I fancy another one here, available at around [3.0]. Pepe, Alvaro Arbeloa and Sergio Ramos are three to watch in this respect.

Up front, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Mourinho go without a striker again, with Ronaldo and Mesut Ozil providing the attacking threat, with Angel di Maria on the left, blocking Alves' runs. Emmanuel Adebayor has done well when coming off the bench in the previous two games, and Mourinho might want a similar pattern of play here - keep it tight early on, then open up in the second half. I think a 0-0 at half time is a good bet if it creeps over the [3.0] mark, especially as this outcome has occurred in the last two meetings between the sides.

Recommended Bets
'Yes' in 'Sending Off' at [3.0]
'0-0' in 'Half Time Score' at [3.0]

Looking ahead to one of the most eagerly-awaited European games in years, James Eastham says Jose Mourinho's resurgent hosts are underestimated against their deadly rivals....

If you need an explanation of who the two big stars are ahead of this match you don't watch enough football. Magical Matthew Walton tells us how to go about dealing with Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi in the goalscorer...

Ed Hawkins on why Barcelona's greatest strength is also their greatest weakness...

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Champions League Betting: Tottenham Hotspur v Real Madrid

Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 12 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Cristiano Ronaldo always needs something to shout about

"Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon are exactly the sort of player to fly out of the traps and help Spurs make an early breakthrough in their quest for the unprecedented"

Tobias Gourlay identifies the individual players with the motivation to do well in a game that may or may not mean very much to the clubs involved

Tottenham must overturn a four-goal deficit if they are to go through to the semi-finals. No team has ever done that in the Champions League era.

Real Madrid rested the stars of their 4-0 first-leg win at the weekend - Cristiano Ronaldo, Marcelo, Xabi Alonso, Mesut Ozil, Emmanuel Adebayor and Ricardo Carvalho all started on the bench. Karim Benzema and Kaka missed the first leg, but are now fit enough to play.

Harry Redknapp could have done with resting his stars at home to Stoke City on Saturday, but everyone is needed if Spurs must now qualify for next season's Champions League via this season's Premier League. Aaron Lennon is feeling better; otherwise, the injury list is much as it was for the first leg. Peter Crouch, of course, is suspended.

Match Odds

Real Madrid are [2.66] to win at White Hart Lane. Jose Mourinho built this team to counter-attack and presumably that is exactly what they will be allowed to do as Spurs search for their four goals.

Spurs' recent tired performances and Mourinho's apparent desire to put on a good show in England make it hard to argue with Real's status as favourites, but Matthew Walton has done some analysis that might raise a concern. And with Real perhaps thinking already about Saturday's el Clasico, this market should probably be left alone.

Over / Under Goals

Over 2.5 Goals is a [1.73] favourite for this game. It paid out in three group-stage matches at White Hart Lane, then there was a goalless draw with AC Milan.

This season, Real have played a couple of games in France, a place of few goals, but a couple of other European away matches have broken the 2.5-goal barrier.

With the two teams' motivations and priorities not clear, this market is not very enticing either.

To Score

Cristiano Ronaldo has taken more shots than any other player in the Champions League this season, including 14 at the Bernabeu last week. He is embroiled in a personal battle with Leo Messi to prove himself the world's best player and is thus keen to play every game and to play it hard. If Mourinho names a strong team and Ronaldo is available at [2.5] or more To Score, he will be your best bet.

Karim Benzema is actually Real's top-scorer in the Champions League this season with six goals in his last four appearances. He has not played since appearing for France three and a half weeks ago, but until then he had scored in nine of his most recent 11 games for Real. If Mourinho rests Ronaldo for this match so he's fresh for el Clasico and Benzema starts, [3.0] or more would be a tempting price at which to back the Frenchman To Score anytime, not least because competition for a starting place is hotting up as Gonzalo Higuain and Emmanuel Adebayor find fitness and form.

Half Time / Full Time

Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon are exactly the sort of players to fly out of the traps and help Spurs make an early breakthrough in their quest for the unprecedented. Initially, Real will probably be content to defend their aggregate lead and they might not be roused until Mourinho's half-time team talk.

Twelve of Real's 23 Champions League goals this season have come in the final 30 minutes of their matches and it could be that their speedy counter-attacks only break through when the home side gets desperate and starts to tire.

It is very speculative, but you might fancy a punt on Tottenham to be ahead at half-time and Real to be winning at full-time at [34.0] in the Half Time / Full Time market.

Top Stat: Cristiano Ronaldo is averaging seven shots a match in the Champions League this season
Best Bet: Back Cristiano Ronaldo @ [2.5] To Score*
Recommended Bet: Back Tottenham/Real Madrid @ [34.0] Half Time/Full Time

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*If he starts and Real play their first XI

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Champions League Betting: Lyon v Real Madrid

Champions League / Tobias Gourlay / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Iker Casillas could be an important figure for Real Madrid against Lyon's in-form attackers

"Real have fallen short at the Stade Gerland every time they have come. The combined score from three matches there is 6-0 to the hosts."

Real Madrid have lost every game they have ever played at the Stade Gerland. Someone Special is needed if they are to do any better in Lyon on Tuesday night, says Tobias Gourlay.

Lyon and Real Madrid meet in the last 16 of the Champions League for the second year running. Twelve months ago, the French club won the first leg 1-0 at home and the tie 2-1 overall, condemning Real to a seventh consecutive season without a Champions League quarter final.

Lisandro Lopez might be injured, but Claude Puel's squad will be improved by the return from illness of goalkeeper Hugo Lloris.

Match Odds

Real have fallen short at the Stade Gerland every time they have come. The combined score from three matches there is 6-0 to the hosts.

Lyon warmed up for this game with a 4-0 win over Nancy on Friday night. Twelve goals from five games in 2011 suggest they have the firepower to trouble the Real defence, but the possible absence of Lopez is concerning. Remember too that Real had the second-best defensive record in the group stages.

OL's good historical record against the Spanish giants - unbeaten in six matches, home and away - makes their [4.9] win price look long, but this column wants some cover for the draw. According to personal taste, Lyon are [3.5] in the Draw No Bet market or Real are a [1.87] lay in the Match Odds.

Under / Over

In all competitions, Real's last six away games have stayed under 2.5 Goals. Real themselves have scored only four times in those matches.

At the weekend, Mourinho completed nine years unbeaten in home league matches. He has also won every single match at the Bernabeu so far this season. Lyon will most likely need to win this match, if they are to cause another upset in the tie. Until it becomes clear what Puel tactics are - to go for the win or the clean sheet - it is hard to disagree with the market's assessment of under 2.5 Goals as a [1.77] favourite.

Correct Score

We might not know what Puel is going to do, but what about Mourinho? Isn't it conceivable that he will settle for a goalless draw, safe in the knowledge of his perfect record back in Spain?

With that mean defence and poor scoring form of theirs, his team are well capable of achieving exactly that - more capable of it than a [12.5] price suggests.

Best Bet: Back 0-0 Correct Score at [12.6]
Recommended Bet: Lay Real Madrid at [1.87] to win

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