The Punter's In-Play Blog: Stenson goes clear at East Lake

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Fulham v Manchester United: Red Devils to move 10 points clear at the top

"Throw in the fact that Fulham’s home games have averaged over three goals per game this term, and that United have averaged three goals scored against Saturday’s opponents in recent years, then it’s a straightforward task to recommend Over 3.5 Goals at 2.68/5."

Fulham are out to gain quick compensation for their defeat to Manchester United in the FA Cup last Saturday, but Mike Norman believes the Cottagers will be left disappointed...

Fulham v Manchester United
Kick-off Saturday 17:30, live on ESPN

Just a week after Manchester United handed out a 4-1 thrashing to Fulham in the FA Cup the two sides meet again, this time in the Premier League and this time at Craven Cottage. But don't expect the outcome to be any different.

Sir Alex Ferguson has exactly the same squad of players now as he had before the January Transfer Window - even £15m capture Wilfried Zaha is back at Crystal Palace on loan - and few can blame the United boss for putting his faith in the same group of players that have taken the club seven points clear at the top of the table.

Fulham however did make some Deadline Day signings. Martin Jol has brought in Dutch international midfielder Urby Emanuelson, Bulgarian defender Stanislav Manolev, and Cameroonian defensive midfielder Eyong Enoh, all on loan.

All three of the Cottagers' new boys could play a part in the game against United, but one man who is unlikely to figure is ex-Red Devil Dimitar Berbatov after he pulled a hamstring in his side's 3-1 win over West Ham in midweek.

United's form leading up to the game is sold, Fulham's is patchy at best (just three league wins from their last 16 outings), and with Opta pointing out that Man Utd have won six and drawn one of their last seven meetings with the London club then it's easy to understand why the league leaders are strong favourites to collect another three points.

Match Odds

United took full advantage of Manchester City's failure to beat QPR on Tuesday night with an unimpressive 2-1 win over Southampton at Old Trafford 24 hours later. But we're getting to the business end of the season now, and unimpressive victories, especially when your main title rivals fail to win, are just as welcome as any other victory.

On that performance alone however some may view the 1.664/6 on offer for a United win a little on the skinny side - Fulham can be backed at 6.05/1 with the Draw at 4.3100/30.

But it's unlikely that United will play as poor again, and with five straight victories over Fulham, scoring 15 goals in the process, Ferguson's men will be extremely confident of extending their lead at the top of the table to 10 points.

United put four past the Cottagers just seven days ago in the cup, and with a stronger line-up expected for this encounter, and their ability to score goals away from home not in any doubt, then it's easy to envisage them scoring three or four again. An away win has to be the call.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Just because this fixture is at Craven Cottage and not at Old Trafford doesn't mean we shouldn't expect as many goals as we saw last weekend. United are by far the highest scoring side in the Premier League away from home, and the 27 goals that they have scored on their travels is just five short of the number of home league goals they've scored this season.

Throw in the fact that Fulham's home games have averaged over three goals per game this term, and that United have averaged three goals scored against Saturday's opponents in recent years, then it's a straightforward task to recommend Over 3.5 Goals at 2.68/5.

Other Markets

Slightly contradictory to the above, backing the No option in the Both teams to Score market at 2.3811/8 is certainly something to think about. With Nemanja Vidic back to full fitness, and Berbatov expected to miss the game, it's possible that United could win this in easy fashion without conceding a goal.

Preference however is to have a small wager on Any Unquoted in the Correct Score market at 6.05/1. I really do fancy some goals in this game so there's no need for me to concern myself debating whether the home side will score or not. If United score three or four as I expect them too then there'll be plenty of opportunity for me to lock in some profits on my recommended bets.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.68/5
Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ 6.05/1
Back Man Utd to win @ 1.664/6

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Nearly backed Grace goes clear

“I fancy Grace will convert now, there’s no reason to suspect otherwise, but I’m not ploughing in at odds on.”

Our man's kicking himself for not backing Branden Grace in China and he's not best pleased with the weather in Texas either. Read Steve's latest thoughts here...

12:55 - April 21, 2012

Not the greatest 24 hours ever!

Deciding not to back Branden Grace in China was clearly an error. He heads into tomorrow's final round with a three shot lead after shooting an eight-under par 64 this morning and he now trades at odds on!

My crumb of comfort is that George Coetzee also shot 64 and he's now five off Grace's lead; he's not completely out of it by any means. He's in tie for 4th but he'll need help from his fellow South African, help that I can't see coming. I fancy Grace will convert now, there's no reason to suspect otherwise, but I'm not ploughing in at odds on.

Over at the Valero Texas Open, Thursday afternoon's starters enjoyed benign conditions yesterday morning and Ben Curtis, who thankfully I backed modestly on day one, has shot clear after his second straight five-under par round. On -10, he's two clear of David Mathis and three clear of Cameron Tringale who also enjoyed the favourable draw.

My man, Matt Every, is also on -7 (alongside Tringale) but he still hasn't finished round two yet. He'll return shortly to the 17th green where he'll attempt to convert for birdie from 11 feet before tackling the par five 18th and I can't help feeling aggrieved about the weather.

There was an almost two hour weather delay before my man even started his second round and by the time he did get going the benign conditions were long gone. The wind was howling when Every kicked off and it didn't relent all evening. Having failed to make a birdie in the treacherous conditions, he bogeyed four holes in seven from the 6th hole. Mercifully he did manage to pick up a couple of birdies after that and he's back in it. After Tringale and Every, there's a three shot gap to the rest.

With in-running plays Hunter Haas, Freddie Jacobson and Troy Matteson shooting two, four and nine over par respectfully yesterday, I think the best cause of action now is to do nothing more. With a lot of luck, Every can get back on track today and with the wind forecasted to blow again, he might have an advantage over the other three in the leading group, in that he experienced playing in the wind yesterday. Ok, so I'm possibly clutching at straws! Not easy with crossed fingers...

14:35 - April 20, 2012

Is it a day of disasters for my picks? Troy Matteson's just had a nine to shoot his way out of the Valero Texas Open!

14:30 - April 20, 2012

I couldn't quite believe my eyes when I first looked at the Volvo China Open leaderboard this morning. I was quite hopeful that pre-event pick Paul Casey, who had started the day on -4 and three off the lead, would be right in the thick of things. From what I'd seen of the coverage yesterday there was no sign of any injury problems and he looked to be in great form but having scanned up and down the leaderboard several times with bleary morning eyes, I eventually found him, miles down the list. So much for being in the thick of things!

Incredibly, he made a seven at the 2nd hole, a 10 at the 12th, and a seven at the 18th. All three holes are par fives and given he only pared the other one - he played the four long holes in nine over par! Needless to say, he's missed the cut.

In stark contrast, my only other pick, Paul Lawrie, managed a very respectable -5 but he's still six off the halfway lead - held by Gary Boyd and Jean-Baptiste Gonnet. A long way back maybe but I haven't given up all hope.

From the moment I got up I've been toying with backing Branden Grace. He was a couple under par through six holes then and I fancied he could get to, and probably pass, the leader at that time on -9 - Nicolas Colsaerts. Then the leaderboard froze for a while at around 8.00am and when it came back to life Grace had eagled the 7th hole. His price collapsed and I wasn't best pleased. After much deliberation, I decided to leave it alone and go to the gym instead and I'm glad I did. I may well have backed him shorter than he is now if I hadn't gone and after even more deliberation, I've decided to leave him alone for now anyway.

Grace will play with Colsaerts tomorrow and given the pair contended together at the Volvo Champions at Fancourt (similar venue) in January (won by Grace) they'll make for an interesting two-ball tomorrow when they tee-off in the penultimate pairing at 05.37 am UK time. Quite what affect that will have on the pair is anyone's guess. It could inspire either or- or they could both be distracted by playing together again. For the record, I have no idea why Colsaerts (a shot worse off) is shorter than Grace. The Belgian has won only once in over 200 starts (this event last year) whereas Grace has won twice this year already!

Anyway, I've decided to leave Grace alone for now because I think the event's still wide open and I can see anyone from -4 or better getting in the shake-up. 6.611/2 is a fair price but no more than that. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

I have had one bet though, a small play on George Coetzee at an average of 70.069/1. On -5, he's more than capable of putting in a low one tomorrow and I thought he was well worth a small play at those odds.

They're off and running in Texas again and that event will be live on Sky at 3.30pm.

22:35 - April 19, 2012

With the threat of bad weather tomorrow, play has been brought forward and live coverage on Sky starts on Friday at 3.30pm.

22:25 - April 19, 2012

With the Volvo China Open being played throughout the night and the Valero Texas Open finishing late, it's not easy to find an opportune moment to kick-off the blog. I was going to wait until tomorrow afternoon but given I've already been busy trading in Texas; I thought I'd better get it started.

Both of my pre-event picks in China, Paul Casey and Paul Lawrie, were given afternoon tee-times on day one and given that the conditions were a fair bit tougher for the latter starters, I'm quite pleased with their first rounds. Lawrie was slightly disappointing and he needed to birdie the last two holes to shoot level par but Casey did very well. He missed a very makeable birdie chance on the 16th but despite that, still shot -4. He trails first round leader Mathew Baldwin by three shots but he'll be out nice and early in round two (00.15 UK time) and he'll be looking to keep climbing the leaderboard.

Quite pleased with the start in China, I'm chuffed to bits with day one in Texas! I was pretty bullish about Matt Every in my preview and so far he's done me proud. You can't really ask for more than a broken course record can you? After shooting a nine-under par 63 in the favourable morning conditions, he leads by three over Hunter Haas, with a further two shots back to a small group of players tied for 3rd.

Rather than lay any of my bet back I've backed a few more players. I'd written in my preview that up on the pace is where you may need to be from early on here and I'm going to take a chance that that theory's correct. The wind isn't forecasted to die down until Sunday so low rounds could be few and far between over the next few days. I've backed Haas, Fredrik Jacobson - one of those currently tied for 3rd, and I've also backed Ben Curtis and Troy Matteson, who I wish I'd backed before the off.

Haas and Jacobson are done for the day and like Every they'll be out in the afternoon tomorrow but Matteson and Curtis are still playing their first rounds (-3 and -4 respectfully as I write).

When looking at this event before the off I fancied the Sony Hawaiian Open and the Puerto Rico Open might be good guides and Matteson's played well at both. I looked at him closely before the off so I'm slightly miffed I didn't get him onside then.

Curtis is something of a panic buy possibly but at an average of 34.033/1, on -4 after nine holes, I felt he was well worth getting onside.

Volvo China Open Pre-Event Picks:
Paul Lawrie @ 34.033/1
Paul Casey @ 38.037/1

In-Running Play
George Coetzee @ an average of 70.069/1

Valero Texas Open Pre-Event Picks:
Matt Every @ 90.089/1
Brian Gay @ 95.094/1
Matt Bettencourt @ 140.0139/1

In-Running Plays:
Freddie Jacobson @ 12.011/1
Hunter Haas @ 23.022/1
Ben Curtis @ an average of 34.033/1
Troy Matteson @ an average of 60.059/1

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Kentucky Derby: Union Rags now clear favourite for May classic

News / Timeform / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Union Rags during a workout

"Timeform has increased Union Rags' rating from 123 to 124..."

Union Rags has shortened markedly in the ante-post betting for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5, following his authoritative success in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Sunday.

The Michael Matz-trained colt is [4.1] from around [10.0] on Betfair for the Kentucky Derby, with a double-figure or bigger price on offer about all other named contenders.

Union Rags, winner of four of his five races, accounted for News Pending comfortably by four lengths, with the previously unbeaten Discreet Dancer fading into third. The much-touted Algorithms was a late scratch due to a setback.

Timeform has increased Union Rags' rating from 123 to 124, which puts him 6 lb and more ahead of his likely rivals and just 2 lb behind the average rating achieved by Kentucky Derby winners in the last five years.

Matz, who won the big one in 2006 with Barbaro, indicated that he was likely to aim Union Rags at the $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby, over 9 furlongs and back at Gulfstream, on March 31.

In the meantime, look out for Timeform's new "Road To The Kentucky Derby" feature, with rolling biographies of the leading contenders, starting on these pages later this week.

With opposition to reigning champion Quevega thin on the ground, Emma Lavelle is keen to run Kentford Grey Lady in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham......

Timeform review a weekend featuring a win for Nacarat in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton alongside a whole host of Cheltenham pointers......

Kauto Star is reported to be in tremendous shape ahead of his bid for a third Cheltenham Gold Cup success on Friday February 16....

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Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Montbazon eases clear at Plumpton

News / Timeform / 30 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Montbazon was successful at Plumpton.

"We won't have learned a lot from that but he's a smashing horse..."

The Alan King-trained Montbazon got back to winning ways at Plumpton on Monday...

Considered a live contender for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham, Montbazon had finished just a length behind Colour Squadron on his first start over hurdles at Newbury in December.

The only brief moment of concern for Wayne Hutchinson was when Montbazon jumped to the right at the third-last and cannoned into Victor Leudorum.

But he quickly recovered to finish 15 lengths in front of that rival.

"We won't have learned a lot from that but he's a smashing horse," said King.

"I'd like to give him a bit more practice and we might look at the Listed hurdle at Exeter in a couple of weeks."

Montbazon is currently trading at [20.0] for the Supreme, with Steps to Freedom heading the market at [9.4]. Cinders and Ashes ([12.0]), Darlan ([12.5]) and Simonsig ([14.5]) are also prominent in the betting.

Diamond Harry will be checked out for a possible breathing problem after his run at Cheltenham on Saturday......

Timeform take a look at a number of three year-old's from the Roger Charlton yard, reviewing what they have achieved to date and what they may go on to accomplish in the coming Flat season......

Timeform look back at a weekend dominated by Cheltenham Trials day on Saturday and some top-class action from Ireland on Sunday, including the return of Champion Hurdler Hurricane Fly......

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La Liga Betting: Real Madrid surge clear of beaten Barcelona

Spanish Football / Michael Lintorn / 28 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Real Madrid are now six points clear and strong favourites to win La Liga

"Barcelona have a chance to do some damage limitation on Tuesday when they entertain Rayo Vallecano."

Real Madrid punished Barcelona's first loss of 2011-12, virtually guaranteeing that they will enter the first Clasico of the campaign in top spot.

How can a team who have been flawless on their Champions League travels continue to perform so ineptly on the road domestically? That question is sure to give Pep Guardiola a few restless nights after his side fell six points behind Real Madrid.

Just days after claiming a fifth successive away European victory against Italian champions AC Milan, Barcelona were felled 1-0 in the Spanish capital by lowly Getafe, who had won only two of their first dozen La Liga games.

The occasion marked the title holders' first defeat in 28 matches, but while that unbeaten run deserves plenty of credit, a loss as visitors had been on the cards, albeit appearing more likely to occur on their return to Madrid in a fortnight for the Clasico.

Guardiola's men, who haven't failed to finish first in any of his three seasons as coach, have taken just nine points from a possible 18 away from the Camp Nou, and their two triumphs were 1-0s against struggling Sporting Gijon and Grenada.

Real Madrid negotiated another potentially tricky tie earlier on Saturday with a seventh straight win over neighbours Atletico to extend a lead that on current form they will be optimistic of increasing further when they welcome their rivals.

And having emerged as favourites in the aftermath of their 3-2 success at third-placed Valencia a week ago, they are now clear frontrunners at [1.57], with Barcelona flying all the way out to [2.76].

Barca have a chance to do some damage limitation on Tuesday when they entertain Rayo Vallecano, who have only lost two of their seven away fixtures since promotion, pocketing as many points as the champions.

Victor Valdes and co haven't been breached once at home in domestic action, so it's no shock that they are [1.08] to close the gap to three points. Rayo have been defeated by more than one goal just twice though, so consider opposing Barcelona to win both halves at [1.48].

Tobias Gourlay expects Real Madrid to win the city derby with Atletico as usual, but wonders whether Barcelona will struggle on their trip to the Spanish capital...

Tobias Gourlay expects Real Madrid to increase the gap between the big two and the rest with a win at third-placed Valencia on Saturday night...

It may only be November, but this is already shaping up to be a crucial game in the race for the La Liga title...

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NBA Conference Finals Betting: Bulls and Mavs can pull clear in game three

Basketball / Nick Shiambouros / 21 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Man in form - Derrick Rose is leading the Bulls charge

"Chicago is trading at a generous [2.92] to win the game."

In the East and the West, four teams are battling it out to reach the biggest series in basketball. But who will get there? Nick Shiambouros selects the best bets.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat v Chicago Bulls - Series Tied 1-1

The Miami Heat won Game 2 85-75 in determined fashion at the United Center on Wednesday night. This defensive battle was won in the fourth quarter when Miami held Chicago to just 10 points.

The Heat looked in trouble for most of the game but LeBron James made some huge buckets in the closing stages to seal the victory and square the series.

The Bulls left the floor in disbelief after this tough loss. They had a real chance of taking control of the series but their offense let them down badly. They only managed to shoot 34 percent from the field and 60 percent from the line. These numbers will not get the job done against a team like the Heat.

The action moves to Miami on Sunday for Game 3 of this compelling series. The Heat will once again rely heavily on LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to put points on the board. These two players have provided most of the offense for Miami but they have played with very little rest.

Head coach Erik Spoelstra will try to give his two superstars as much rest as possible in Game 3 but he does not have a strong bench to rely on.

The Bulls come in to this game in good order. They have matched Miami in almost every department and this young team will not go down easily.

Point guard Derrick Rose is playing extremely well and is confident his team will make it to the NBA Finals. Forward Luol Deng is growing in stature and is imposing himself in the series. He is beginning to see more of the ball and is shooting well.

Chicago is trading at a generous [2.92] to win the game. There is very little to choose between these two teams but the Bulls have a much deeper bench which could make the difference here.

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder v Dallas Mavericks - Series Tied 1-1
The Oklahoma City Thunder levelled the series with a 106-100 victory on Thursday night in Dallas. The Thunder came to play and thoroughly deserved the victory in this entertaining affair.

Kevin Durant was on fire for the Thunder scoring 24 points. The young forward played virtually the whole game without a rest and barely looked out of breath as he left the floor.

Dallas only trailed by one point with seven minutes to go but the Thunder pulled away with an 11-2 run to put the game beyond doubt.

Game 3 of the series moves to Oklahoma on Saturday. Dirk Nowitzki is having a fantastic series for Dallas and will be tough to contain again. This experienced forward has scored a total of 77 points in the first two games. He's bound to add substantially to this impressive number on Saturday night.
The Mavs are trading at [2.22] to win Game 3 which is more than fair in my opinion. They did not play all that badly in Game 2 and are still the team to beat.

I have not changed my mind about Dallas. They are the deeper team and I fully expect them to prevail in this pulsating series.

Recommended Bets
Saturday back Dallas in Game 3 in the Match Odds market at [2.22]
Sunday back Chicago in Game 3 in the Match Odds market at [2.92]

The Thunder outlasted Memphis to win an epic series but now face an imposing Dallas Mavericks in the Conference Finals. Nick Shiambouros previews the series...

Miami meet Chicago in the Eastern Conference Finals and it's the superstars of the Florida team who can advance to the final two, says Nick Shiambouros...

Nick Shiambouros rounds up the latest playoff action from the NBA where the veteran Mavericks have recently swept the Lakers and could be on course for championship glory...

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