The Punter's In-Play Blog: Hadley too big at a three-figure price

"Jason Day won the WGC Matchplay back in February but only one player currently inside the top-ten at TPC Boston has won a stroke play event this year – Chesson Hadley. The PGA Tour rookie won the Puerto Rico Open in March and he looks slightly over-priced to me at 110.0109/1."

Steve details his lay book at the halfway stage in Italy and takes a quick look at the state of play after day one of the Deutsche Bank Championship. Read his latest in-running thoughts here...

11:20- August 30, 2014

As I suspected he might, Francesco Molinari put in a lacklustre second round at the Open D'Italia yesterday and since I'd layed him after round one, I'd given myself a great cornerstone to build a nice lay book from but I wish I'd left things alone until this morning...

In addition to my lay of Molly, I layed both Hennie Otto and Bernd Wiesberger as they flew through the field yesterday morning in round two but both kept moving forward and with the benefit of hindsight, I'd have been much better off if I'd have waited until the close of play as both now trade much shorter than I layed them at. 

As Otto now leads the Austrian by three and the rest of the field by six, it's going to be a day of crossing fingers and hoping that the pair come back to the field but I'm not hopeful. The third round is underway and it's live at midday in the UK on Sky Sports.

Over at the Deutsche Bank Championship, Ryan Palmer shot an impressive eight-under-par 63 to take up the early running and it's the second time in three starts that he's led after round one. He was tied at the top at the USPGA Championship before going on to finish fifth.

Keegan Bradley is two back in second and Jason Day, Webb Simpson and Chesson Hadley are all three off the lead on -5. Having barely gotten involved before the off and given up with the pace is the way to go here, I was quite keen to find a nice wager this morning but nothing really grabs me.

Only two of the 11 winners to date have been any further than four off the lead after the first round so the stats suggest we should be concentrating hard on the top-ten (in addition to the top-five already mentioned, five men are tied for sixth on -4) but I've struggled to get excited about any of them.

Jason Day is the narrow favourite over Rory McIlroy, who trails be seven and has it all to do, but I'm not keen on the Aussie. He's had plenty of chances to add to his tally of one stroke play PGA Tour title but always seems to find a way to get beat. 

Bradley has been disappointing in-contention of late and makes little appeal at just 8.88/1. Ryan Palmer will in all likelihood hang around all week, as he did at Valhalla, and is a reasonable price at 11.010/1 but I'm going to have just one small wager today and take another look at halfway.

Jason Day won the WGC Matchplay back in February but only one player currently inside the top-ten at TPC Boston has won a stroke play event this year - Chesson Hadley. The PGA Tour rookie won the Puerto Rico Open in March and he looks slightly over-priced to me at 110.0109/1.

22:15 - August 28, 2014

With the Deutsche Bank Championship (previewed here) not starting until Friday, I hadn't envisaged kicking off the In-Play Blog until tomorrow afternoon but given I've already got involved in-running at the Open D'Italia, I thought I'd make a start.

My sole selection, David Horsey, made an inauspicious start, shooting a one-under par 71 this morning but even though he's five off the lead and tied for 43rd, he's not completely out of it. There's an awfully long way to go and that's one of the reasons I've taken on joint-leader and clear favourite, Francesco Molinari, at just 3.8514/5.

There are plenty of quality players hot on Molly's heels and Bernd Wiesberger, sitting alongside the home favourite is a big danger for starters. I appreciate that they haven't had too many representatives over the years but with just one Italian winner in 33 years, taking the title for a second time isn't going to be an easy task for the 2006 champion.

Molinari tends to get nervous in-the-mix and I'll be surprised if he isn't trading bigger by this time tomorrow. I'd be shocked if he was to take the event by the scruff and kick on and laying him looks sensible. As detailed in the In-Pay section of the preview, laying the leaders on Sunday might make sense anyway so getting stuck in early and starting a lay book with Molly looks the right thing to do.

Ideally, Molinari will stutter in the morning and someone else will trade short and I can really start to build a nice book but if the worst case scenario occurs and Molinari bolts up, at just 3.8514/5, it won't be the end of the world if I don't get to lay anyone else and I finish up paying out.

Open D'Italia Pre-Event Selection:
David Horsey @ 80.079/1

In-Play Lays
Francesco Molinari @ 3.8514/5
Hennie Otto @ an average of 4.57/2
Bernd Wiesberger @ an average of 4.84/1

Deutsche Bank Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Stuart Appleby @ 230.0229/1

Deutsche Bank Championship Each-Way Selection:
Scott Stallings @ 500/1 (details here)

In-Play Bet
Chesson Hadley @ 110.0109/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Manny to make a move

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Europeans lead 8-6 at the Seve Trophy

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Stenson goes clear at East Lake

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: After just one round in Boston, is Lefty already the man to beat?

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Louis stutters after fast start in Korea

“If a host of fancied players get off to a flying start today I could well be shrugging my shoulders and merely waiting to pay out but if they don’t, I’ll be in a strong position.”

Steve's had a change of plan this week, laying all the market leaders from the start in Louisiana, so here's his nice and early first in-running instalment of the week...

13:10 - April 25, 2013
I don't usually kick-off the In-Play Blog this early but as I've had a change of tactics this week, I thought I'd better get the ball rolling.

There's not much to report from the Ballantine's Championship, where following a two hour delay for poor visibility, round one is yet to finish. My three outsiders, listed below, haven't started as I would have hoped and I haven't got involved in-running.

The story of the morning has been the start by pre-event favourite, Louis Oosthuizen, who has already been matched at just 2.1011/10. I watched a bit of this morning's coverage and his play was reminiscent of that displayed during his demolition job at the Open Championship three years ago at St Andrews.

After birdies at the first four holes, a poor drive on the par 5 5th put a stop to the run but further birdies followed at the 6th and 8th holes. It looked like he was going to set a very stern early target but as so often happens with super-fast starts; the momentum was lost on the back-nine. Bogeys were made at the 10th and 12th holes and I was left wondering why I hadn't layed him. Especially given this week's tactics at the Zurich Classic...

Having backed three relatively big-priced picks on Monday, the plan had been to wait and see how the first day developed and then to look at getting some of the early pace-setters onside. As detailed in the preview, front-runner have a terrific record at this event and that looked a sensible plan but I decided yesterday to get a bit more involved.

I've got family stopping for a few days so I won't be able to track the play as closely as I'd like so I haven't gone mad by any means but I've decided to lay the front end of the market before the off.

I'm not mad keen on the favourites, although I'm airing on the side of caution with Jason Dufner and Bubba Watson, but it's the players a bit further down the list that look short to me and I've layed everyone currently trading at 65.064/1 and below with the obvious exception of Graham DeLaet, who I backed on Monday at 85.084/1.

I don't usually quote actual figures as I don't see it as either relevant or to be frank, anyone else's business, but for this week only I will, as I don't think I can explain it clearly enough without doing so.

I've layed a total of 19 players and if I don't touch the market and just leave it until the end of play, should any of those 19 win I will lose an amount ranging between £169 (Bubba) and £819 (Cameron Tringale). Should I do nothing and all 19 get beat I stand to win £636.

I don't plan to leave things alone completely but I don't want to meddle too much too early either. If a host of fancied players get off to a flying start today I could well be shrugging my shoulders and merely waiting to pay out but if they don't, I'll be in a strong position.

I've picked this event to lay the fancied players for a number of reasons. We've had a lot of upsets already on the PGA Tour this year, this event has produced a few shock winners recently (although not the last two years) and as stated previously, some of those trading below 65.064/1 look skinny to me.

Ballantine's Championship Pre-Event Selections
Gregory Havret @ 160.0159/1
Gareth Maybin @ 160.0159/1
Andreas Harto @ 230.0229/1

Zurich Classic Pre-Event Selections
Rory Sabbatini @ 85.084/1
Graham DeLaet @ 85.084/1
Boo Weekley @ 90.089/1

Zurich Classic Lay Book
Worst case scenario -£819
Best case scenario +£686

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rose and Woods dominate the early Arnold Palmer market

“Justin Rose was very impressive, especially with the putter, and he leads the way on -7 but I can’t believe he can putt like he did yesterday for all four days and I’m more than happy with Tiger’s start.”

Steve's happy with his picks so far this week but he's quite keen for Kiradech Aphibarnrat to slow-up and slow-up soon. Read his early thoughts here...

12:30 - March 22, 2013
For the second day running, thunderstorms struck Kuala Lumpur and play has had to be suspended at the Maybank Malaysian Open. They failed to resume at all yesterday but today they were able to get back out and play eight or nine holes. They've now finally finished for the day and they'll be back first thing in the morning.

My only pre-event wager, Charl Schwartzel, has completed two rounds and he's tied for second with China's Ashun Wi, one behind Thailand's Kiradech Aphibarnrat on -10, who still has eight holes to play of round two.

In theory, Schwartzel should be favoured by the two breaks. Although he had a very long day today, finishing up round one before playing round two in its entirety, I fancy all the players on his side of the draw, i.e. those that started in the afternoon on day one, have life a little easier. The fact that Schwartzel hasn't had to do any waiting around today and that he'll get a nice lie-in tomorrow should be in his favour.

Those drawn in the morning on day one will have to come back first thing tomorrow to finish-up round two and then they'll then have to wait around for their tee-time in round three. Not ideal at all.

Schwartzel has already traded as short as 1.784/5, when he held a three shot lead, but a scruffy finish to round two (two bogeys in his last four holes) has seen his price drift back out to 2.809/5, with Aphibarnrat looking his biggest danger.

I backed the burly Thai, who's apparently also known as Anujit Hirunratanakorn (one mammoth mouthful of a name not enough?), three years ago in this event at a huge price, as well as in the 2011 renewal, so if he were to win this week, it would certainly grate but I stopped backing him after last year's Avantha Masters when he put in yet another poor effort in-contention.

He's a talent for sure but his record in-the-mix isn't great and he still has only one Asian Tour title to his name. That said, I can't pretend his presence isn't an annoyance and if he is going to mess up again I wish he'd get on with it!

I could wake up tomorrow and find Schwartzel's a long way back and that the event has been reduced to just 54 holes but I don't think there's much I can do about it. With the benefit of hindsight, I should have input a lay back of my stakes at odds-on but it's always easy afterwards and I'm just going to leave things alone for now.

Over in the States, at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, according to the betting, it looks like a straight fight between just two players already, my man, Tiger Woods, now trading at 3.7511/4 and England's Justin Rose 3.9n/a.

Playing in the same morning three-ball yesterday, the pair opened their accounts for the week handsomely. Woods made three bogeys but still ended the day on three under-par, having played the par fives in five under, and as highlighted in the preview, that appears to be the key to success here.

Rose was very impressive, especially with the putter, and he leads the way on -7, two clear of John Huh and three ahead of both John Rollins and Brad Fritsch.

As the afternoon starters began tardily yesterday, I assumed that the advantage was with the early starters but as it transpired the late starters averaged a score of 73.15, compared to 73.85 in the morning. With barely any wind forecast today, Woods and co, playing in the afternoon today, shouldn't be inconvenienced and given how hard it is to make up ground in this event, the market could be right.

I can't believe Rose can putt like he did yesterday for all four days and I'm more than happy with Tiger's start, so for now, I'm leaving things alone here too.

Maybank Malaysian Open Pre-Event Selection:
Charl Schwartzel @ 7.413/2

Arnold Palmer Invitational Pre-Event Selections:
Tiger Woods @ 4.216/5
Bubba Watson @ 38.037/1

* You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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The Punter's De-Brief: Steely Streelman bags maiden win

“Punters are always over-optimistic about players still out on the course, expecting birdies when in reality, pars are good. On tough tracks, those that come from off the pace and post a target are nearly always too big and Boo most certainly was last night. “

It's been a losing week for our man but he has no regrets. Read his final thoughts on the week here...

Thomas Aiken shot a superb five under-par 65 to comfortably convert his third round three-shot lead into a three-shot margin victory at the Avantha Masters and longstanding PGA Tour maiden, Kevin Streelman, showed considerable resolve to win the Tampa Bay Championship. Americans have now won all 12 PGA Tour events in 2013.

My Bets
At no stage did I ever look like winning at the Avantha Masters and I eventually lost a few pounds at the eventful Tampa Bay Championship - but only because I was far too dismissive of Streelman.

I'd written in the In-Play Blog how hard it was to hold-on to a lead at Copperhead and given 34 year-old Streelman, who'd started round four in a tie at the top, had never won in getting on for nearly 200 PGA Tour events, his victory caught me out a bit and I failed to profit from a good position.

I got onboard runner-up Boo Weekley in-running at an average of 11.010/1, having first backed him at 18.5n/a after his superb tee-shot on the par 3 15th and having topped-up at 8.07/1 as he played the 18th.

I also backed Justin Leonard @ 9.08/1 and I eventually backed Streelman at 2.1011/10, but all that did was reduce my losses.

Had Streelman failed to pass Boo, who was matched at just a shade over 2.01/1, I'd had a very good week and with hindsight, I obviously should have covered Streelman and/or layed Boo back but I've no regrets at all.

As discussed below, Weekley was very much a value play and I went for it. And I effectively took-on Streelman. It didn't pay-off this time but in the long-run, taking on players looking for their first wins after umpteen starts, usually pays off.

There's often value in the clubhouse
I've written about this before but after yesterday's events in Florida, it's well worth revisiting.

I can't praise Streelman's performance highly enough. Considering some pretty poor past efforts in-contention and bearing in mind that a target had been set by Boo, his two under-par back-nine was a magnificent knock and he deserves every credit, but it scuppered a rare and golden opportunity.

Punters are always over-optimistic about players still out on the course, expecting birdies when in reality, pars are good. The finish to the Copperhead Course is tough and the last three holes, known as the Snake-Pit, always average over-par, so finishing with a flourish and catching someone safely in the clubhouse is very tough.

After he'd posted his -8 score, Weekley's price slowly moved downwards as the realisation of the task set slowly materialised. I took a chance topping-up at 8.07/1 after he'd teed-off on the tough 18th and it nearly backfired when he left himself getting on for six feet for par but once he'd made that putt, for a very long time, his price did nothing but drop - eventually bottoming out at just over 2.01/1.

On tough tracks, those that come from off the pace and post a target are nearly always too big and Boo most certainly was last night.

What have we leant for next year?
At the Avantha Masters, the suspicion before the off was that length off the tee would prove advantageous at Jaypee Greens and so if proved. Aiken ranked 11th for Driving Distance, with runner-up Gaganjeet Bhullar and third-placed Wen-Chong Liang ranking 9th and 4th respectfully. If we return to the venue next year, look again at those that hit it miles off the tee.

There was plenty of money for a few Indians before the off but I fancy they were too short. Bhullar, Jaypee Greens' touring pro representative, finished second but only one other, Himmat Rai, finished inside the top-22.

After a run of South African events, where the locals dominate, it's easy to think that the Indians will follow suit but in reality, they don't have anywhere near the strength in depth or the history of top-class performers as the South Africans do and as a simple rule of thumb, dismissing them in future will probably prove the best way to go.

Aiken was the second South African in-a-row to win the Avantha Masters and it all makes sense. They're used to the grainy greens and they're used to being at the top of their game at this time of the year.

Jesper Parnevik tweeted on Friday that, "Innisbrook is one of the best courses we play all year!! Drives you insane but very fair!!!"

The course is fair but it is tough, really tough, and holding on to a lead is very difficult. If ever there were a week to switch from backing to laying then this is it. The leaderboard changed dramatically from one day to the next and simply laying the leaders between rounds would have put you nicely in-front.

We've a couple of nice events to look forward to this week. Luke Donald travels to Malaysia for the Maybank Malaysian Open and Tiger Woods will be attempting to win his eighth Arnold Palmer Invitational. I'll be back either tomorrow or early on Wednesday with previews of each event.

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Follow The Money: Bolero backed to be the punter's Buddy

Recommended Bets

Lay Franklin Roosevelt @ 2.8815/8 14:00 Leicester
Back Brockwell Park @ {4.5} 14.40 Ludlow
Back Buddy Bolero @ 2.01/1 15:30 Leicester

Today's Follow The Money comes from Leicester and Ludlow...

Starting at Leicester and today`s negative on a morning where there has been an absence of any notable drifters Franklin Roosevelt now trades at 2.8815/8 from an early 2.6413/8 in the opening 14.00 contest. Backers haven't exactly fallen over themselves to get involved with David Pipe`s seven-year-old who finished tailed off on his chasing debut earlier this month. His previous hurdles form would give him a decent chance this afternoon however he cannot be backed with any confidence given the run last timeout so a lay looks the call.

Our next mover is in Ludlow`s 14.40 race where there has been some interest in Brockwell Park who has shortened in to 4.57/2 from 6.611/2. This one ran an eye catching race at Huntingdon last time out under today`s pilot Nick Scholfield when making late headway to run on for a place. His mark allocated for this afternoon`s handicap debut appears very fair so looks of interest given the early money.

Back to Leicester for our final selection where Buddy Bolero has been a very solid market leader in the 15.30 race having been backed in to 2.01/1 from 2.747/4. This is another one trained by David Pipe and comes here looking for a three-timer following wins at Folkestone over hurdles and Exeter on chase debut last time out. He is upped in trip on handicap debut today but that is unlikely to stop this Cheltenham Festival entry.

Recommended Bets

Lay Franklin Roosevelt @ 2.8815/8 14:00 Leicester
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/horse-racing/market?id=1.108078683
Back Buddy Bolero @ 2.01/1 15:30 Leicester

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Will we ever get going in Hawaii?

“Either they have a completely different forecast to the one I’ve been viewing or, they consider three or four knots as a considerable change in wind speed. ”

The 2013 US PGA Tour still hasn't started but the weather is supposed to improve today and we could be in luck. The Punter's not convinced however...

10:55 - January 6, 2013 
With the unrelenting winds refusing to ease in Hawaii, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions still hasn't officially started. Delays inevitably progressed to abandonment yesterday and the event has now been reduced to 54 holes, which still seems extremely optimistic. 

The plan now is to play 36 holes today, starting at 7.10am local time (5.10pm UK time), followed by 18 on Monday, fingers and toes crossed. The PGA Tour website yesterday stated that the weather forecast is much better for today which suggests one of two things. Either they have a completely different forecast to the one I've been viewing or, they consider three or four knots as a considerable change in wind speed. 

If play does get underway, and I'm far from convinced it ever will, the live coverage on Sky starts earlier than advertised, at 8.00pm, and tonight could develop into a busy one. 

10:40 - January 5, 2013 
The 2013 US PGA Tour is just a few hours old but it's already descended into farce. The forecast strong winds arrived in Hawaii yesterday, where the traditional seasonal opener, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, is being held and with some players out on the course and some yet to start, play for round one was abandoned, with all the scores scrapped. 

Webb Simpson, a popular choice with some very shrewd judges, including our very own Paul Krishnamurty, was handling the brutal conditions quite brilliantly and whilst others were racking up double and triple bogeys or worse, the US Open champ was showing his class in no uncertain terms. He was the only player under-par and had somehow gotten to -3 through seven holes when play was stopped.

The decision to scrap the scores suited me as my man, Carl Pettersson, was one of those worst affected by the weather. Having pared the 1st hole, his tee-shot on the par 3 2nd had landed just shy of the putting surface. He played what looked a perfectly judged second shot but instead of stopping a foot from the pin, as looked likely, a gust of wind blew it 30 feet past!  Bubba Watson described it as goofy golf and you can see where he was coming from!

Simpson had been matched at a low of 6.05/1 in-running and you have to have sympathy for his backers, who will quite understandably claim it's just the luck of the draw. After all, nobody ever said the game was meant to be fair and there is a draw bias to some extent virtually every week, but I can see why they've done what they've done, with some players having not even teed off. I do think they were naive with the course set-up though. Could they not have placed the pins better and not cut the greens so short?

Anyway, the plan now is to play 36 holes today, with the field starting off two tees at 7.30am local time (5.30pm UK time).  I assume the greens won't have been cut and more thought will be given to pin placement but they're still up against it as the weather is forecast to be no better at all.

I'm going to leave my bet in place but there is a chance that the event could get reduced to 36 holes and that it becomes a bit of a lottery (if it isn't already) so I certainly wouldn't advise getting heavily involved.

The market is currently suspended but once a decision has been made with regards to bets placed after the start yesterday, I'll be sure to update you here.

Selection:
Carl Pettersson @ 28.027/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Mickelson makes a move

Our man's kicking himself for not backing Phil Mickelson earlier but he's not cutting his nose off to spite his face. He's looked at the stats and evaluated the opposition, and with a round to go Phil the Thrill is the man to beat at the BMW...

11:00 - September 9, 2012

With a round to go, both this week's events are still very open and extremely hard to predict.

Four players, Pablo Larrazabal 4.77/2, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 5.39/2, Graeme Storm 7.613/2, and Scott Jamieson 7.87/1 are locked together on -12 at the top of the KLM Open leaderboard, with Sweden's Peter Hanson just one shot back. At the BMW Championship, just two shots separate the top-seven players and I'm kicking myself over my trading, or should I say lack of trading yesterday!

Having not got matched on Larrazabal overnight on Friday at the over-ambitious 26.025/1, I really should have just taken the more than acceptable 24.023/1 still available yesterday morning but as always, hindsight's a marvellous thing. If I had to pick one now it would be Pablo, he hasn't made a bogey since his 5th hole on Thursday and he'll relish playing with fellow Spaniard Gonzo in the final group.

Although I like Pablo's chances, it looks far too open to get involved. I can't have Storm, who led by five at one point on the back-nine yesterday, but other than him, there are at least five others with a plausible chance. The likes of last week's winner, Richie Ramsay, Danny Willett, Henrik Stenson and Nicolas Colsaerts all have the class to go very low and make up ground and Peter Hanson could be playing with a freedom few could match.

How the Swede was able to concentrate on his game yesterday is beyond me. His 18 months-old son was taken to hospital in Florida with a virus and it sounded grave. Mercifully, this article suggests he's improving all the time and if that's still the case, a relieved Hanson could be a dangerous beast today.

At the BMW Championship, Rory McIlroy still heads the market after somehow remaining in-contention at Crooked Stick but if he's going to take back-to-back titles he's going to have to improve today.

The big mover yesterday was Phil Mickelson and if I'm cross with myself over missing Larrazabal's move, I'm absolute livid about Lefty. Having backed him the last two weeks at handsome odds, I dug my heels in deep and stubbornly refused to get involved this week at what I thought was a bit of a skinny price before the off. I can forgive that, after all, it looked like a good decision for two days but not backing him yesterday morning at 46.045/1, when he was clearly lurking with intent and when Rory and Tiger Woods were dominating the market, despite not impressing in round two, was absolutely unforgivable.

So what now? I've had to move on and look at the event objectively this morning and get over not backing Phil yesterday. And now that I've done that, who do I fancy to win the event? Phil Mickelson.

Rory sits alongside Lee Westwood one shot behind Vijay Singh and Phil Mickelson and if he gets his game in order he'll still take all the beating but there has to be a serious doubt he can do so. He's not played well for two days and he's no certainty to turn it around in 24 hours.

Singh hasn't won for four years and Westwood is never a value play in the mix. His conversion rate is just not good enough, whereas Mickelson's is outstanding...

It's impossible to argue against his chance today. He's led or co-led with a round to go 33 times since 1996 and he's gone on to win 23 times. And of those 33 occasions, he's only twice failed to finish 1st or 2nd! When he's been tied for the lead, as he is now with Vijay Singh, he's won seven times and failed to win just six times. I'm an idiot for not getting him onside at halfway but I'm not going to cut my nose off to spite my face. I know it's a very tight leaderboard but Mickelson is a proven class-act closer and 4.84/1 is just too big.

Dustin Johnson, just two off the lead and currently trading at 11.5n/a is a big danger and he's another I looked at hard and should have gotten onside yesterday but you can't back them all.

09:30 - September 8, 2012

After two impeccable bogey-free rounds, Graeme Storm holds a three-shot lead at the KLM Open but he looks vulnerable to me. Leaderboard and betting as at 9.20, listed below.

Graeme Strom -11 5.59/2
Peter Hanson -8 4.77/2
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -8 -7.6n/a
Scott Jamieson -8 18.5n/a
Pablo Larrazabal -6 22.021/1
Shiv Kapur -6 55.054/1
-5 or worse the remainder

It's a tricky puzzle to solve and after much deliberation, I've decided not to add to my portfolio at this stage. All of my pre-event picks have disappointed but my bet on Gonzo on Thursday afternoon has worked out very well, thanks to an impressive second round 65, I'm happy to stick with him and see what today brings. I did try and back Larrazabal overnight at 26.025/1 but I didn't get matched and I'm not prepared to take lower.

In addition to the players listed above, Nicolas Colsaerts, on -5 and trading at just 10.09/1, Martin Kaymer (-5), who shot a disappointing second round 71, defending champ Simon Dyson (-4), and in-form Englishman Danny Willett (-5), all have to come into the equation but they all have to fly over the weekend and hope for some help from those ahead of them.

Storm is in a very commanding position right now and if he can break par over the weekend he'll take the world of beating. Dyson won with a 12 under-par 268 total last year and an in-form Martin Kaymer, who won by three strokes, only got to -14 two years ago, so you'd have to think a couple of under-par rounds may well be enough for Storm.

Hilversumsche is a tight and fiddly track where making ground is tough. There are birdies out there but it's keeping the errors off the card that's crucial. Storm is the only man bogey-free so far this week but can he keep it up? I doubt it.

Strom is notoriously poor in-contention and I'll be very surprised if he stays out in front. Ryder Cupper Peter Hanson is an understandable favourite but I never get him right. He too isn't exactly convincing in the mix and whenever I back him he finds a way to get beat. Jamieson looks reasonably priced but he hasn't been in-contention for a long time and he's still looking for his first European Tour win, so all things considered, I'm happy to stick with Gonzo.

I just hope he stays patient. After two rounds he leads both the driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats (the two stats I felt were most important before the off) and if he remains patient with the putter, he could be the one. If I wasn't already on, I'd be backing him this morning.

Over at the BMW Championship, Rory McIlroy kicked off round two with a pair of birdies and threatened to take control of the event but it was hard work after that. He didn't play as well as he had done on day one and I'm a little worried that trend could continue today.

Vijay Singh, on 13, leads by one over Rory, Tiger Woods and Ryan Moore, with Lee Westwood and Bo Van Pelt on -11 and my man, Graham DeLaet and Seung-yul Noh on -10.

With birdies flying in left right and centre, the wet weather has ruined this event somewhat. Crooked Stick would be a proper test in dry and breezy conditions but it's pretty toothless in these conditions.

08:45 - September 7, 2012

With just three weeks to go to the Ryder Cup, European captain, Jose Maria Olazabal, saw at first hand yesterday that Martin Kaymer's hard work on the range has paid off. Playing alongside the German, as well as Belgian wildcard pick Nicolas Colsaerts, Jose must have really enjoyed watching his biggest concern constructing a wonderfully crafted opening 65 at the KLM Open.

Whether Kaymer, who's had a poor summer by his own very high standards, can kick-on for the remainder of the week remains to be seen but I'm certainly kicking myself for not having a saver at least. He won here two years ago and I'd written in my preview that I'd suspected an improvement but it's no use crying over spilt milk.

Prior to round two, Kaymer traded at around 4.84/1 - a price I was happy to turn my nose up at. If he goes on to win so be it but I'm not prepared to dive-in now.

Of my five pre-event picks, three shot first rounds in the 60's, with Berndt Wiesberger, who shot 68, faring best but he trails first round leader, Graham Storm by fully five shots.

I've added one more pick, backing Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, who won his maiden title here in 2005, at an average of 60.059/1 during round one. After opening up with a three under-par 67, like Kaymer and early pace-setter Storm, he's playing his second round this morning.

Before I move on to events across the pond, I have to mention Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me A 100 Winner column yet again. Two of his three picks have started superbly and having spoken to him on Tuesday, I know he also considered Scotland's Craig Lee, who has also begun the week well.

The TV guys have been playing up the FedEx Cup playoff series since its inception but I have to admit, it's never really grabbed me yet but this year that could all change. With world number one, Rory McIlroy and former number one, Tiger Woods, going hell for leather at the BMW Championship in round one yesterday, there was a real buzz to the tournament and excitement will reach fever-pitch if they carry their rivalry forward to East Lake for the FedEx Cup decider in a fortnight's time.

It's not just the Rory and Woods show though, far from it. Four players opened up at a rain-softened, wind-bereft Crooked Stick with eight under-par 64's - Rory, local lad Bo Van Pelt, world number four Webb Simpson and another of my picks, outsider Graham DeLaet. Tiger Woods sits alongside Vijay Singh on -7, with world number two, Luke Donald, amongst those lurking on -6.

We look set for a cracker but don't get caught out and miss all today's action. With poor weather forecast, play has been brought forward today and it starts at 8.00am local time, 1.00pm UK time. Sky have brought their coverage forward to accommodate the change in schedule and they go live at 5.00pm. And if Woods, Rors and co are going to pick-up from where they left off yesterday, I should get yourself in front of the telly.

Having been extremely bullish about Rory's chance this week and about his new-found dominance over Tiger, I'm as relieved as I am pleased with his excellent start but I'm a little wary about today. If there is to be a reaction to Monday's win at the Deutsche bank Championship, it could be today.

And there's a real danger that I could get wrapped up in the Rory-Tiger duel and miss a move from elsewhere. Simpson and Donald are very obvious dangers to the first two in the market and I'll also have an eye on the in-form Dustin Johnson later on. He recovered well after a poor start yesterday to get to -4 and he might just muscle-in on the argument too.

KLM Open Pre-Event Selections:
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 44.043/1
Berndt Wiesberger @ 46.045/1
Thomas Levet @ 90.089/1
James Morrison @ 160.0159/1
Lee Slattery @ 170.0169/1

In-Play Pick:
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ an average of 60.059/1

BMW Championship Pre-Event Selections:
Rory McIlroy @ 8.415/2
Bubba Watson @ 48.047/1
Graham DeLaet @ 400.0399/1

In-Play Bet
Phil Mickelson @ 4.84/1

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Follow The Money: Blanche gamble to prove punters white

Recommended Bets

Back I’m Back @ 5.59/2 13:50 York
Back Blanche Dubawi @ 5.79/2 14:55 York
Lay Jewellery @ 5.39/2 15:40 Fontwell

Today's Follow The Money movers come from York and Fontwell.

We start up on the Knavesmire and in the first race of the day the 13:50 7f Nursery Godolphin's I'm Back is now favourite. An earlier high of 7.26/1 Darren Egan's mount is now 5.59/2. He won his maiden first time out at Windsor, had a disappointing effort next up but put that behind him with his latest effort; a Nursery win at Newmarket. He has gone up 2lbs since then but Egan takes off 5lbs and the money suggests he has another win in him.

Staying at York in the 14:55 6f Listed Stakes there has been a big gamble for Hayley Turner's ride Blanche Dubawi. Initially trading at 12.011/1 and bigger Noel Quinlan's filly is second favourite at 5.79/2. After most of the season off she should be sharper following her sixth of eight at Newmarket two weeks ago and today conditions certainly suit. She ended last season well and the money suggests they expect her to do the same again this year.

Finally we're at Fontwell where we find today's lay in the 15:40 2m4f Mares Handicap Hurdle. Point to point winner Jewellery is a maiden under Rules following three unsuccessful attempts, her latest a disappointing sixth at Newton Abbot. Victor Dartnell now has the horse and although he's known to be able to change the fortune of similar horses Betfair punters aren't so sure. An early low of 3.7511/4 would have seen her favourite however at 5.39/2 the money suggests that this is one to go against.

Recommended Bets

Back I'm Back @ 5.59/2 13:50 York
Back Blanche Dubawi @ 5.79/2 14:55 York
Lay Jewellery @ 5.39/2 15:40 Fontwell

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Steve Stricker recovers well and the four-timer's still on

“Stricker started round one slowly, turning in level par, but a fast finish has put him into contention and he ended the round on -6, thanks largely to a hole-out from the fairway for eagle on the 14th hole.”

Our man's struggling in Scotland but faring much better in Illinois. Can Steve Stricker kick-on at the John Deere Classic?

21:20 - July 13, 2012

I've just done a bit of recycling at the John Deere Classic. Laying some of my Troy Matteson bet back at 8.47/1 and using the returned stakes to back Robert Garrigus at the same price. Probably time to stop fiddling with it for today now.

16:30 - July 13, 2012

I've added a couple more very small bets.

I can't see Alex Noren lengthening from his current price. He still leads the Scottish Open on -12 and we're getting to a point in the day now whereby it's hard to see anyone making much of an impact. The weather is cooling off and most of the main contenders are well into their second rounds.

I like Noren because the weather is due to deteriorate on Sunday and he's a very good bad weather player.

And I've also had a small play in-running on Y.E Yang at the John Deere Classic. He's just got to -7 through ten holes of round two and although he still trails runaway leader Troy Matteson by five strokes, 60.059/1 is too big.

14:20 - July 13, 2012

Magical five minutes that.

With a chance to open up with three straight birdies, Matteson misses form just three feet on the 3rd hole. Then bogeys from all my other three - Stanley, Crane and Stricker immediately follow. Ouch!

14:10 - July 13, 2012

It was a day of low scoring everywhere yesterday. After Francesco Molinari had threatened to register the European Tour's first 59, Troy Matteson gave himself a chance to make the PGA Tour's sixth. In the end he came up a couple shy, shooting a ten-under-par 61 to lead the John Deere Classic by three shots after round one but there was a 59 yesterday after all. Bermudan Michael Sims, not to be confused with Australian Michael Sim, shot 59 at the eGolf Tour's Southern Open.

After a disappointing first day at the Scottish Open, my fortunes changed for the better at the John Deere Classic. All three of my picks started at the same time with both Steve Stricker and Kyle Stanley in the same three-ball. I got to see plenty of their play and for a long while I didn't like what I saw.

Stricker, attempting to win the event for the fourth time in-a-row started slowly and when he made the turn he was still on level par but a fast finish has put him into contention. He ended round one on -6, thanks largely to a hole-out from the fairway for eagle on the 14th hole. Stanley played some lovely neat tee-to-green golf but putted poorly and finished the day on just -3 but Ben Crane did me proud.

Playing the back-nine first, Crane got to -7 through just 13 holes, before bogeying both the 7th and 8th holes. It was a disappointing finish to the day but a good start all the same. And to add to my good start with my pre-event picks, I even managed to jump onboard early pace-setter Matteson at 48.047/1, albeit very modestly, after he'd gotten to -6 through ten holes.

All four players are playing now so it's going to be a nervy afternoon. I look in a decent position right now but it can soon go pear-shaped.

I'm going to leave the Scottish Open alone for now, with Molinari only just underway in round two, it's very hard to gauge where we'll be at halfway. I wouldn't want to back Molinari at his current price of 3.72/1 but nor would I want to commit to anyone else, only to see the Italian pick up from where he left off again. It's a wait and see what happens job for now.

13:30 - July 12, 2012

If any of your picks have an afternoon start today at the Scottish Open, they're probably already trading at quite a bit bigger than the price you took. Francesco Molinari has picked up from where he left off in France last week and shot 62 this morning. And for a while it looked as though the elusive 59 was on. It's never been shot on the European Tour but with benign conditions forecast until Sunday, this could be the week.

It's been a seamless transition from last week to this for Molinari and if you count his last nine holes on Sunday and his first nine today (the back-nine at Castle Stuart), he's shot 59 for his last 18. That's going some, but can someone do it in one round this week?

The Italian is now in the clubhouse and leading on -10 and he's already been matched at just 1.10n/a in the 1st Round Leader market and 3.62/1 in the Outright Winner market.

Defending champion, Luke Donald, has traded short too, at just 3.752/1, when he got to -7 through 13 holes but he slipped back a bit after that and has finished the round on -5.

My most disturbing moment, so far, was watching Ernie Els take an incredible four shots to extricate himself from a greenside bunker on the 6th hole. I'd consider the Big Easy one of the best bunker players in the world and given that's one of the reasons I've already backed him for next week's Open Championship, it made for slightly disturbing viewing!

I haven't got involved in-running but I did add one more selection after I'd written Tuesday's preview. I've backed James Morrison plenty of times this year (and last) so once more won't go amiss.

Play has only just got underway in the states, at the John Deere Classic, where all my picks have been assigned afternoon tee-times.

Scottish Open Pre-event Selections:
Thomas Bjorn @ 44.043/1
Branden Grace @ 60.059/1
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 95.094/1
James Morrison @ 210.0209/1

In-Play bets
Alex Noren @ 9.48/1

John Deere Classic Pre-event Selections:
Steve Stricker @ 8.67/1
Kyle Stanley @ 65.064/1
Ben Crane @ 65.064/1

In-Play bets
Troy Matteson @ 48.047/1
Y.E Yang @ 60.059/1
Troy Matteson layed @ 8.47/1
Robert Garrigus @ 8.47/1

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Nearly backed Grace goes clear

“I fancy Grace will convert now, there’s no reason to suspect otherwise, but I’m not ploughing in at odds on.”

Our man's kicking himself for not backing Branden Grace in China and he's not best pleased with the weather in Texas either. Read Steve's latest thoughts here...

12:55 - April 21, 2012

Not the greatest 24 hours ever!

Deciding not to back Branden Grace in China was clearly an error. He heads into tomorrow's final round with a three shot lead after shooting an eight-under par 64 this morning and he now trades at odds on!

My crumb of comfort is that George Coetzee also shot 64 and he's now five off Grace's lead; he's not completely out of it by any means. He's in tie for 4th but he'll need help from his fellow South African, help that I can't see coming. I fancy Grace will convert now, there's no reason to suspect otherwise, but I'm not ploughing in at odds on.

Over at the Valero Texas Open, Thursday afternoon's starters enjoyed benign conditions yesterday morning and Ben Curtis, who thankfully I backed modestly on day one, has shot clear after his second straight five-under par round. On -10, he's two clear of David Mathis and three clear of Cameron Tringale who also enjoyed the favourable draw.

My man, Matt Every, is also on -7 (alongside Tringale) but he still hasn't finished round two yet. He'll return shortly to the 17th green where he'll attempt to convert for birdie from 11 feet before tackling the par five 18th and I can't help feeling aggrieved about the weather.

There was an almost two hour weather delay before my man even started his second round and by the time he did get going the benign conditions were long gone. The wind was howling when Every kicked off and it didn't relent all evening. Having failed to make a birdie in the treacherous conditions, he bogeyed four holes in seven from the 6th hole. Mercifully he did manage to pick up a couple of birdies after that and he's back in it. After Tringale and Every, there's a three shot gap to the rest.

With in-running plays Hunter Haas, Freddie Jacobson and Troy Matteson shooting two, four and nine over par respectfully yesterday, I think the best cause of action now is to do nothing more. With a lot of luck, Every can get back on track today and with the wind forecasted to blow again, he might have an advantage over the other three in the leading group, in that he experienced playing in the wind yesterday. Ok, so I'm possibly clutching at straws! Not easy with crossed fingers...

14:35 - April 20, 2012

Is it a day of disasters for my picks? Troy Matteson's just had a nine to shoot his way out of the Valero Texas Open!

14:30 - April 20, 2012

I couldn't quite believe my eyes when I first looked at the Volvo China Open leaderboard this morning. I was quite hopeful that pre-event pick Paul Casey, who had started the day on -4 and three off the lead, would be right in the thick of things. From what I'd seen of the coverage yesterday there was no sign of any injury problems and he looked to be in great form but having scanned up and down the leaderboard several times with bleary morning eyes, I eventually found him, miles down the list. So much for being in the thick of things!

Incredibly, he made a seven at the 2nd hole, a 10 at the 12th, and a seven at the 18th. All three holes are par fives and given he only pared the other one - he played the four long holes in nine over par! Needless to say, he's missed the cut.

In stark contrast, my only other pick, Paul Lawrie, managed a very respectable -5 but he's still six off the halfway lead - held by Gary Boyd and Jean-Baptiste Gonnet. A long way back maybe but I haven't given up all hope.

From the moment I got up I've been toying with backing Branden Grace. He was a couple under par through six holes then and I fancied he could get to, and probably pass, the leader at that time on -9 - Nicolas Colsaerts. Then the leaderboard froze for a while at around 8.00am and when it came back to life Grace had eagled the 7th hole. His price collapsed and I wasn't best pleased. After much deliberation, I decided to leave it alone and go to the gym instead and I'm glad I did. I may well have backed him shorter than he is now if I hadn't gone and after even more deliberation, I've decided to leave him alone for now anyway.

Grace will play with Colsaerts tomorrow and given the pair contended together at the Volvo Champions at Fancourt (similar venue) in January (won by Grace) they'll make for an interesting two-ball tomorrow when they tee-off in the penultimate pairing at 05.37 am UK time. Quite what affect that will have on the pair is anyone's guess. It could inspire either or- or they could both be distracted by playing together again. For the record, I have no idea why Colsaerts (a shot worse off) is shorter than Grace. The Belgian has won only once in over 200 starts (this event last year) whereas Grace has won twice this year already!

Anyway, I've decided to leave Grace alone for now because I think the event's still wide open and I can see anyone from -4 or better getting in the shake-up. 6.611/2 is a fair price but no more than that. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

I have had one bet though, a small play on George Coetzee at an average of 70.069/1. On -5, he's more than capable of putting in a low one tomorrow and I thought he was well worth a small play at those odds.

They're off and running in Texas again and that event will be live on Sky at 3.30pm.

22:35 - April 19, 2012

With the threat of bad weather tomorrow, play has been brought forward and live coverage on Sky starts on Friday at 3.30pm.

22:25 - April 19, 2012

With the Volvo China Open being played throughout the night and the Valero Texas Open finishing late, it's not easy to find an opportune moment to kick-off the blog. I was going to wait until tomorrow afternoon but given I've already been busy trading in Texas; I thought I'd better get it started.

Both of my pre-event picks in China, Paul Casey and Paul Lawrie, were given afternoon tee-times on day one and given that the conditions were a fair bit tougher for the latter starters, I'm quite pleased with their first rounds. Lawrie was slightly disappointing and he needed to birdie the last two holes to shoot level par but Casey did very well. He missed a very makeable birdie chance on the 16th but despite that, still shot -4. He trails first round leader Mathew Baldwin by three shots but he'll be out nice and early in round two (00.15 UK time) and he'll be looking to keep climbing the leaderboard.

Quite pleased with the start in China, I'm chuffed to bits with day one in Texas! I was pretty bullish about Matt Every in my preview and so far he's done me proud. You can't really ask for more than a broken course record can you? After shooting a nine-under par 63 in the favourable morning conditions, he leads by three over Hunter Haas, with a further two shots back to a small group of players tied for 3rd.

Rather than lay any of my bet back I've backed a few more players. I'd written in my preview that up on the pace is where you may need to be from early on here and I'm going to take a chance that that theory's correct. The wind isn't forecasted to die down until Sunday so low rounds could be few and far between over the next few days. I've backed Haas, Fredrik Jacobson - one of those currently tied for 3rd, and I've also backed Ben Curtis and Troy Matteson, who I wish I'd backed before the off.

Haas and Jacobson are done for the day and like Every they'll be out in the afternoon tomorrow but Matteson and Curtis are still playing their first rounds (-3 and -4 respectfully as I write).

When looking at this event before the off I fancied the Sony Hawaiian Open and the Puerto Rico Open might be good guides and Matteson's played well at both. I looked at him closely before the off so I'm slightly miffed I didn't get him onside then.

Curtis is something of a panic buy possibly but at an average of 34.033/1, on -4 after nine holes, I felt he was well worth getting onside.

Volvo China Open Pre-Event Picks:
Paul Lawrie @ 34.033/1
Paul Casey @ 38.037/1

In-Running Play
George Coetzee @ an average of 70.069/1

Valero Texas Open Pre-Event Picks:
Matt Every @ 90.089/1
Brian Gay @ 95.094/1
Matt Bettencourt @ 140.0139/1

In-Running Plays:
Freddie Jacobson @ 12.011/1
Hunter Haas @ 23.022/1
Ben Curtis @ an average of 34.033/1
Troy Matteson @ an average of 60.059/1

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US Politics Betting: Carnage in Carolina as punters desert nominee-elect Romney

US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mitt Romney is no longer the favourite to win in South Carolina

"Nor are Romney's woes restricted to this single contest. An earlier victory in the opening Iowa Caucus was wiped out after a recount, with Rick Santorum declared the winner."

The last few days has seen a number of important events that have turned the race to be the Republican candidate on its head. All of which is playing into the hands of Barack Obama, says Paul Krishnamurty.

In keeping with a long history of political betting shocks, the race for the Republican nomination has been turned on it's head over recent days. When the final week of campaigning for the South Carolina Primary began, Mitt Romney was trading as low as [1.1] for both the nomination and tonight's pivotal contest. Suddenly, following a series of significant developments, he is friendless for South Carolina at [5.1] and drifting out to [1.4] for the wider contest.

The favourite's troubles began after a series of hostile ads inspired by chief rival Newt Gingrich, who had previously been on the receiving end of negative campaigning from Romney backers before the opening Iowa Caucus. As voters mulled over Romney's controversial corporate past at Bain Capital, the billionaire failed to neutralise criticism of his tax affairs. With the wind in his sails, Gingrich stepped up the pressure with two strong debate performances and polling in the Southern state was transformed. Having trailed Romney by 11 points only six days ago, the latest numbers have Gingrich ahead by 9%.

Nor are Romney's woes restricted to this single contest. An earlier victory in the opening Iowa Caucus was wiped out after a recount, with Rick Santorum declared the winner. A Gingrich victory tonight would now mean three different candidates had won the opening three races while a fourth, Ron Paul, remains a key player. Another significant development is the withdrawal of one-time favourite Rick Perry, and his subsequent endorsement of Gingrich. Perry was the one candidate with a potential donor base to rival Romney, and now their man has effectively confirmed the controversial former House Speaker as the principal anti-Romney candidate, that cash may well pour into Gingrich's coffers, therefore levelling the playing field.

However the race develops over the longer-term, it seems increasingly certain that Romney will be unable to declare an early victory and focus his attention on the later Presidential contest. Barack Obama, an eyecatching [1.83] to win a second term, must be delighted by this week's events. Punters wanting to learn in greater detail about the dynamics behind these intriguing races might gain something from checking out CNN's all-night coverage with Wolf Blitzer and a team of experts. Some of the detailed analysis frankly puts the UK media to shame.

Ahead of next Saturday's South Carolina primary, Paul Krishnamurty discusses the chances of a candidate who has been dubbed "dangerous", "revolutionary" and even "racist."...

Victory in second primray puts Romney on the path to nomination. But rivals might yet spring a surprise in South Carolina......

At odds of [1.03] to win, a Mitt Romney failure in the coming New Hampshire primary would be the mother of all politics betting shocks, so the story this week is how the front-runner's rivals fare, says Paul Krishnamurty...

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Carling Cup Results: Birmingham shock Arsenal and punters

Carling Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 27 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

You beauty. Lee Bowyer can't wait to congratulate match-winner Obafemi Martins

"At the start of this competition a Birmingham win was certainly not on the cards according to the Betfair market; they traded at a high of 65.0 when it started. As for Arsenal, the wait for some silverware goes on."

Obafemi Martins and Ben Foster were the heroes as Birmingham won in the most unlikely of circumstances to further prolong the Arsenal trophy drought.

Birmingham caused one of the all-time upsets in League Cup finals by beating Arsenal courtesy of a late, late Obafemi Martins winner.

It was the Blues who took the lead via the giant Nikola Zigic (matched at 18.5 to be first scorer) very much against the run of play but when Robin van Persie levelled the scores with a fine strike it seemed like Arsenal's momentum would inevitably lead to a second sooner or later.

It was an entertaining final with Samir Nasri the stand-out performer for Arsenal whilst Ben Foster in goal for Birmingham won the Man Of The Match award after a string of fine saves that kept the likes of Nasri and van Persie at bay.

The Gunners had traded at just [1.41] pre-match to win in 90 minutes and at the start of injury-time the draw was trading at just [1.22] but a calamitous defensive mix-up at the heart of Arsenal's defence offered Martins the simplest of tap-ins and the Nigerian made no mistake.

Alex McLeish's side were backed at a high of 28.0 In-Play on the match odds market and at 40.0 to win 2-1; a half-time draw with the underdogs winning at full-time was matched at [23.0].

At the start of this competition a Birmingham win was certainly not on the cards according to the Betfair market; they traded at a high of [65.0] when it started. As for Arsenal, the wait for some silverware goes on.

In the Premier League Liverpool were comprehensively beaten 3-1 by West Ham whilst Manchester City once again dropped points from a winning position. Roberto Mancini's men were matched at [1.23] after going a goal up at home to Fulham but conceded just after half-time; the draw was backed at [6.2].

Obafemi Martins and Ben Foster were the heroes as Birmingham won in the most unlikely of circumstances to further prolong the Arsenal trophy drought....

Arsenal have a fantastic chance to finally win somethinng whilst Birmingham will feel that in a one-off match at Wembley it could well be their day. This should make for a good contest. Let's try to make some momey from...

Michael Cox talks tactics, team selection and best betting oportunities ahead of Sunday's Carling Cup final....

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Simon Rowlands: Punters need to be considered in racing's future

Simon Rowlands / Simon Rowlands / 17 February 2011 / 2 Comments

Imperial Commander: No good reason to think he will be significantly worse as a ten-year-old than he was just a year ago

"The point about such statistics which seems to be lost on many who promulgate them is that “trends” are often relevant only when more specific information is unavailable."

Our blogger argues that those in charge of racing need to reconsider their relationship with the punter, while scrutiny of age stats comes up with some interesting figures for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

After much posturing, rhetoric and deliberation, the Levy which horseracing in the UK needs to run its affairs in 2011/12 has been finalised. That is the end of the story in many respects, but some related matters still seem very far from clear.

It must be wondered how racing's rulers can square a settlement of £73.7m to £80.8m with their oft-stated belief that only a minimum of £130m would be "reasonable". It must also be wondered how one of the chief architects of that case, Paul Roy, can continue to cling to his position like racing's version of Hosni Mubarak, seemingly convinced that he is the answer not the problem.

Roy would probably be a fan of Michelangelo's quote: "The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark." That mindset certainly seems to have informed his part in the negotiation process which broke down and led to the Levy settlement having to be referred to government.

But if "aiming too high" involves being quixotic in the extreme it is likely to do more harm than good, to both racing's reputation and to Roy's in this instance. It will be difficult in future to tell whether the man at the top of racing is being serious or is merely dissembling.

If Roy stays, one of his responsibilities may be to decide what becomes of the money that "Racing" gets from the imminent sale of the Tote. This may be a much bigger, and potentially divisive, issue than many realise. Roy has made it clear that he sees "Racing" as essentially a faction of owners, trainers, racecourses and breeders. No room for punters there.

It should also be remembered that "Racing" saw fit to plug a hole in the BHA pension scheme to the tune of £9.4m as recently as in 2008. What's to say that "Racing's money" from the sale of the Tote won't go the same sort of way?

Fortunately, not all of those at High Holborn come across as misguided or untrustworthy. Speaking with remarkable vision as well as candour, the BHA's Head of Communications, Paul Struthers, suggested on Twitter "...some sort of punters' charter..." and a future in which "...racing does not benefit solely through punters losing..." The Guardian's Greg Wood weighed in with a plea that "...owners need to be seen as customers, not dictators...punters are customers too..."

Amen to that. Is it too much to ask that those in charge of "Racing" - whatever that might be - at the very least take the time to consider some of the wise words that they have so far ignored?

...

Satire can be a powerful weapon in the writer's arsenal, but you need to be careful where you point it if you are to avoid shooting yourself, or those on your side, in the foot. I was reminded of this by reading Peter Thomas' column in the Racing Post this week.

Essentially, Thomas used "stats" to show that NO horse could win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, other than, possibly, Imperial Commander. But that was only if you ignored some of the stats.
This might have made for uncomfortable reading for some of those at his paper who have placed much store by the kind of approach, involving consideration of just winners and crude filtering, that Thomas was lampooning.

For those interested, the results of the Cheltenham Gold Cup this century do imply the possibility of some sort of age bias, though even the more sophisticated approach I described in my previous blog runs into the problem of small samples.

The percentage of rivals beaten by age for the last 10 Cheltenham Gold Cups (with fallers etc stripped out and pulled-ups treated as joint-last for this purpose) are as follows: 6yo 53.3% (1 case); 7yo 54.3% (20); 8yo 55.9% (39); 9yo 55.2% (32); 10yo 45.7% (28); 11yo 28.0% (13); 12yo 39.1% (3); 13yo 27.8% (2).

Make of that what you will. The point about such statistics which seems to be lost on many who promulgate them is that "trends" are often relevant only when more specific information is unavailable. Long Run won't suddenly become incapable of winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup as a six-year-old despite having been able to win The King George VI Chase as one. And there is no good reason to think that the lightly-raced Imperial Commander will be significantly worse as a ten-year-old than he was just a year ago.

As another Twitterer said recently: "just find the best horse, best suited to the race, at the best odds". He may have had a point.

Our blogger argues that those in charge of racing need to reconsider their relationship with the punter, while scrutiny of age stats comes up with some interesting figures for the Cheltenham Gold Cup....

Our resident blogger Simon Rowlands points out the shortcomings of some types of conventional trends analysis......

Menorah and Hurricane Fly look vulnerable, while Lingfield stewards let us all down......

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England aren't taking Italy lightly so why are punters?

General / Ralph Ellis / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Italy boast the most experience pack in the Six Nations

"You can get around even money – the spread this morning was between [1.76] and [2.15] - backing Italy with a 22.5 point handicap."

Italy are improving with each Six Nations campaign and, following last year's close contest in Rome, Ralph Ellis wonders why the markets are offering such long odds on an Azzurri triumph at Twickenham.

When it comes to the Six Nations, we all expect Italy to be collecting the wooden spoon. Just to prove my point they are already installed as [1.47] favourites for the dubious honour. It's hardly surprising. It's where they have finished in all but three of the 12 seasons they've been in the competition. And in our minds they're still the new boys in a tournament that goes back, in one way shape or form, through 128 years of sporting history.

But there's a point when any set of boys start to become men. For instance it doesn't seem so long ago that the big cricketing nations were patting the heads of Sri Lanka and telling them to keep trying - only to wake up one morning and discover they'd invented the "pinch hitting" tactic that won them a World Cup. Some 15 years later they are quite rightly [6.0] second favourites to do it again.

As Italy begin their second decade in the Six Nations tournament there are signs that experience is beginning to pay. Ask Ireland, who needed a dramatic late Ronan O'Gara dropped goal to avoid leaving Rome's Stadio Flaminio on the wrong end of a defeat on Saturday afternoon.

Yet despite that promise, Betfair's early market seems to still be writing off Italy as hopeless minnows. England are as short as [1.03] to win at Twickenham on Saturday. And while, after the encouraging victory in The Millenium Stadium, there's no reason to think Martin Johnson's side won't follow that up with another win, there's equally no reason to think it will be easy.

You can get around even money - the spread this morning was between [1.76] and [2.15] - backing Italy with a 22.5 point handicap. That has to be great value, bearing in mind how England struggled to handle the Italian pack in Rome last year when they struggled to a 17-12 victory and couldn't even dominate the forward exchanges while Martin Castrogiovanni was sat in the sin bin. The return this year of talismanic number eight Sergio Parisse will simply make the Italians stronger.

England's forwards coach John Wells is wary of the threat posed by the most experienced scrum in the competition, with an average of 53 caps between them. "Sometimes you have to win ugly," he's told the Daily Telegraph's Mick Cleary this morning. "They are extremely dogged and very, very difficult to break down. We always get pilloried when we play them, and then everybody else has the same trouble."

That hardly sounds like a man planning a free flowing, expansive strategy to get Chris Ashton running in half a dozen tries. What it does say is that England are taking the threat posed by the Six Nations "new boys" extremely seriously. Maybe it is time we punters began to do the same.

Five things you might not know about Martin Castrogiovanni

1. Born October 1981 in the Argentine city of Parana, his mum wouldn't let him play the rough sport of rugby so he played basketball for local club Atletico Echague until he was 18 - when he was banned for pushing the referee

2. His grandfather was from Sicily. Within a year of taking up rugby he moved to Italy to play for Ghial Calvisano. He was fast tracked straight into the Italian Six Nations squad

3. The Italian restaurant he owns in Leicester - called Timo - has just opened a new branch

4. He's got a dog called fatty - it's a British bulldog. "He's not fat, I just call him that because it's what people called me"

5. His fiancée Giulia Candiago is a member of the Italian skiing team

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