Chelsea v Liverpool: Suarez to prove a bridge too far for Mourinho

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Donald McCain: Super Duty out to prove stamina at Wetherby

"I've always thought he (Super Duty) would get 3m well and this looked the right place to come with a view to deciding his target at the Cheltenham Festival....."

Donald is expecting a big run from Super Duty as he heads to Wetherby for the Towton Novices' Chase...

14.05 Ffos Las - Hollow Tree

He's got his share of weight as a result of his smart form last year and by running in a race like this, he does at least have to avoid lugging top weight around. It's going to be very testing ground which he has already proved he likes and although I think he will stay 3m in time, the drop back in trip certainly won't be a problem. It's obviously very competitive but it's what you expect in a £50k handicap - hopefully his proven ability in the mud will see him go well.

14.40 Ffos Las - Red Rocco

This obviously represents a step up in class for him but he's going the right way and the thorough test of stamina should suit him. Having just ten stone on his back will be in his favour in a race like this and although he needs to improve, he is less exposed than his rivals. Again, it's a valuable prize and if he can get into a nice rhythm in the early stages, he is capable of going well.

15.20 Wetherby - Super Duty

I've always thought he would get 3m well and this looked the right place to come with a view to deciding his target at the Cheltenham Festival. In an ideal world, he'd be having his first run at the trip on better ground than this but we need to crack on with him and he has proven he handles the mud - I was really pleased with him at Cheltenham last time. It looks competitive enough but he's still open to improvement over fences and looks to have a strong chance.

15.55 Wetherby - Dunowen Point

I didn't really have him down as a 2 ½ miler but he seemed to stay well enough when he won over hurdles at Sedgefield on Boxing Day and he was strong at the finish here last time. This probably isn't as competitive as it could be for the money on offer and if he does stay, he's got to have a chance - he's had his problems but he hasn't got that many miles on the clock.

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Will Sturridge prove the right signing for Liverpool?

"Sturridge will have to be patient but, if his attitude is right, he should still flourish at Liverpool."

Christian Crowther debates whether Daniel Sturridge was the right solution to Liverpool's search for attacking reinforcement...

Wednesday was certainly one of the more uplifting days of Liverpool's season as the Reds swept aside Sunderland just hours after announcing the signing of Chelsea striker Daniel Sturridge.

Liverpool's new boy can only have been impressed with what he saw from the stands too, especially from Luis Suarez, the man he will have to dislodge if he's going to fulfil his wish of playing in his preferred central position.

And therein lays a potential problem. The pivotal reason why Sturridge instigated the switch from Stamford Bridge was due to Chelsea's reluctance to play him as a main striker.

Now he arrives at Anfield, where he will find a team which operates a similar system to the one he couldn't penetrate at Chelsea, only the man he will be fighting for a place is fast becoming one of the world's top players in his position.

Suarez's second successive brace took his season's tally to 15 Premier League goals - the same amount as he managed in the whole of his first year-and-a-half on Merseyside - and after Lionel Messi comparisons from an understandably effusive Brendan Rodgers, it's difficult to see anyone replacing the Uruguayan if fit.

According to Rodgers, Suarez is the sort of player who wants to play every minute of every game as well, so that leaves the manager with only a few options.

Either Sturridge has to settle for one of the wide roles in the front three, he plays Suarez out wide, or he changes the system and plays 4-4-2, which would make the already fierce competition for midfield places even more intense.

With Suarez scoring so freely from his central role though - rated at 3.8514/5 to be the league's top scorer - it is difficult to envisage Rodgers switching his star man to the flanks.

Furthermore, it's even harder to envisage Rodgers changing his formation just to accommodate the new signing.

It's far more plausible that Sturridge will initially have to settle for one of the wide positions, with possibly Raheem Sterling on the other side, or bide his time until Suarez is rested or even injured.

One thing is for sure though; Sturridge has pace to burn, meaning he can make it work in wide areas.

So although he may not be immediately deployed in his favoured role, his technical ability and youth make him exactly the sort of player the manager wants for his new-look side.

Sturridge will have to be patient but, if his attitude is right, he should still flourish at Liverpool.

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Follow The Money: Blanche gamble to prove punters white

Recommended Bets

Back I’m Back @ 5.59/2 13:50 York
Back Blanche Dubawi @ 5.79/2 14:55 York
Lay Jewellery @ 5.39/2 15:40 Fontwell

Today's Follow The Money movers come from York and Fontwell.

We start up on the Knavesmire and in the first race of the day the 13:50 7f Nursery Godolphin's I'm Back is now favourite. An earlier high of 7.26/1 Darren Egan's mount is now 5.59/2. He won his maiden first time out at Windsor, had a disappointing effort next up but put that behind him with his latest effort; a Nursery win at Newmarket. He has gone up 2lbs since then but Egan takes off 5lbs and the money suggests he has another win in him.

Staying at York in the 14:55 6f Listed Stakes there has been a big gamble for Hayley Turner's ride Blanche Dubawi. Initially trading at 12.011/1 and bigger Noel Quinlan's filly is second favourite at 5.79/2. After most of the season off she should be sharper following her sixth of eight at Newmarket two weeks ago and today conditions certainly suit. She ended last season well and the money suggests they expect her to do the same again this year.

Finally we're at Fontwell where we find today's lay in the 15:40 2m4f Mares Handicap Hurdle. Point to point winner Jewellery is a maiden under Rules following three unsuccessful attempts, her latest a disappointing sixth at Newton Abbot. Victor Dartnell now has the horse and although he's known to be able to change the fortune of similar horses Betfair punters aren't so sure. An early low of 3.7511/4 would have seen her favourite however at 5.39/2 the money suggests that this is one to go against.

Recommended Bets

Back I'm Back @ 5.59/2 13:50 York
Back Blanche Dubawi @ 5.79/2 14:55 York
Lay Jewellery @ 5.39/2 15:40 Fontwell

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Timeform Irish SmartPlays: Paris to prove Elusive at Dundalk

Tipping / Timeform / 17 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Joseph O'Brien can land the 19:55 on Elusive In Paris

"[Elusive In Paris] has actually been dropped a pound since then and remains unexposed on polytrack."

Timeform's Irish team have picked out three more SmartPlays for this evening's action at Dundalk....

Elusive In Paris showed significant improvement in two starts on this surface in October, winning a nursery at this trip and then just found out by the drop back to six furlongs when a close third on his next start. He has actually been dropped a pound since then and remains unexposed on polytrack. The handful of runners Michael Grassick has had here since the turn of the year have all gone well and the booking of Joseph O'Brien suggests that Elusive In Paris is ready to do himself justice after a break.

The dundalkstadium.com handicap at 20:25 is a very trappy race with just six pounds separating the ten runners on Timeform ratings. It is possible to make a case for just about everything but at the prices it may pay to take a chance on Mountain Coral putting his best foot forward. Admittedly, Mountain Coral hasn't been the easiest to catch right in recent times but he has four C&D successes to his name and his last two runs are best ignored as he didn't enjoy much luck in running. He does need things to go his way but a wide draw should help on that score and he is just the type that Johnny Murtagh excels on. Mountain Coral is on a fair mark and it will be disappointing if he isn't there or thereabouts.

Johnnys Legacy was all out to open his account at the fifteenth attempt in a moderate maiden here last week and looks worth opposing in his bid to follow up. He didn't need to be at his best to win that race but is still twelve pounds higher than when last seen in a handicap. He has had plenty of chances from lower marks than this and is vulnerable off top weight.

Timeform Irish SmartPlays
Back Elusive In Paris in the 19:55
Back Mountain Coral win and place in the 20:25
Lay Johnny's Legacy in the 20:55

After two successful SmartPlays yesterday, Timeform's US team is feeling confident ahead of three win selections this evening......

It's all about Newbury today on Betfair and that's where today's 80/20 is running but who exactly is it?...

Timeform's Dubai Handicapper Stephen Molyneux brings you his three best bets on Friday's card at Meydan......

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Diva and Legacy to prove Lucky and Legal

Timeform Radio Tip / Will Hayler / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Wolverhampton is the scene of today's two Timeform Radio selections

"Back down to 0-75 company at Wolverhampton this afternoon, Legal Legacy looks to have a solid chance of breaking his duck for trainer David Griffiths."

Despite having to abandon three races on Saturday, Wolverhampton has been given the green light to race today and Timeform's Will Hayler has two selections for us.

Considering that Andrew Mullen surrendered the outside line to nobody throughout, Legal Legacy was far from disgraced when fourth in a decent 0-85 handicap at Kempton last time. He even took a broadside from the drifting Bawaadi in the home straight, as well as an accidental smack on the head as the rider of that rival tried to keep his mount straight.

Back down to 0-75 company at Wolverhampton this afternoon, he looks to have a solid chance of breaking his duck for trainer David Griffiths when he lines up in the seven-furlong handicap at 15.55. In three starts for the yard, he's performed with credit on each occasion.

Seven furlongs is his minimum trip, but he should find his stamina sufficiently tested there are several possible pace angles in this line-up with habitual frontrunner I Confess the likeliest to ensure a decent gallop, although Ryedale Dancer and Riverdale have both also gone from the front in recent starts.

Pace was also the problem for Lucky Diva last time out when Steve Drowne rode a canny race from the front to make all aboard Fantino at this track last week. Her stamina failed to come into play as a consequence, but this likeable mare can bounce straight back with a big run against ordinary opposition in the 14.50.

Market leader Vertreux is capable of winning off his present mark, but has appeared more than once to have aversion to putting his head down and fighting and he looks a favourite to oppose.

Recommended Bets

Back Legal Legacy at [5.4] (win) and [1.9] (place) for the 15.55 at Wolverhampton
*Legal Legacy was available to back at [7.6] to win when recommended but has since been a morning mover
Back Lucky Diva at [4.6] (win) for the 14.50 at Wolverhampton

Racing has been decimated today and only the interesting card at Punchestown remains on this cold Sunday. Terry Norman believes he might have found a winning bet......

Lydia Hislop manages to make the best of a reduced Saturday card by selecting four intriguing bets......

Graham Cunningham picks today's bets with three in Dubai and two in Blighty!...

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Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Some Say to prove he's no talking horse

Irish 1-2-3 / Stuart Jones / 10 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

"A reproduction of that form would be sufficient to go close and, given that she's open to plenty more improvement, she's strongly fancied to go one better".

Sunday's action comes from Fairyhouse and Sligo...

The six-furlong listed race at Fairyhouse looks a competitive heat, but Rose Bonheur (15.05) has frequently shaped as if good enough to make her mark as a sprinter at this level, and rates as a very worthy favourite. Kevin Prendergast's filly ran well when just under two lengths third to Emulous in a Group 3 over seven furlongs here last time, despite her stamina being stretched, and this is a slightly easier opportunity. Still unexposed at this trip, Rose Bonheur is worth siding with at [4.5].

Some Say (16.15) could barely have been any more eyecatching when second in a maiden hurdle over this C&D on her reappearance, still travelling noticably well in rear three out and appearing to have running left in her as she stayed on into a never-nearer second behind Lisrenny Lady. A reproduction of that form would be sufficient to go close and, given that she's open to plenty more improvement, she's strongly fancied to go one better.

Onzo Mor (17.15) hasn't had too many chances for his new yard and shaped well enough last time to suggest he is well up to defying his current mark of 103. He's only been raised a 1 lb for a good ½-length second to Take A Shot in a handicap at Roscommon last time, that looking pretty lenient given it was a competitive race, and he heads the Timeform ratings for this similar event. His current prices of [7.0] makes him a very attractive each-way proposition.

Recommendations

back Rose Bonheur @ [4.5] in the 15.05 at Fairyhouse
back Some Say @ [3.25] in the 16.15 at Sligo
back Onzo Mor win and place @ [7.0] in the 17.15 at Sligo

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The action comes from Tipperary today and we've come up with a couple of win bets and a lay.......

We have got one to back and two to lay on a what is a busy night in Ireland......

Plenty of small fields at Leopardstown today but some interesting racing all the same and we've found a lay and a couple of win bets......

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Handicappers' Corner: Frankel set to prove himself a true great

Timeform Features / Simon Rowlands / 02 May 2011 / 1 Comments

Frankel left them all trailing in the 2000 Guineas

"Frankel appeared to be posting 11-second or near-11-second furlong sectionals mid-race, something more likely to be seen in a top sprint."

Timeform's Head of Handicapping, Simon Rowlands, explains how time and form combine to show that Frankel is as good as he looked in the 2000 Guineas...

What else can there be to concentrate on in this Handicappers' Corner than Frankel? Just in case you missed it, the Henry Cecil-trained colt won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday in unforgettable style to extend his unbeaten run to six.

He was sent off the shortest-priced favourite in the race since 1974 and won by the widest margin - six lengths - since Tudor Minstrel won by eight in 1947. Frankel's combined winning margins now stand at 35¾ lengths.

It was not just Frankel's winning margin that was remarkable in the first British classic of 2011: there was an astonishing 17½ lengths back to the fourth, 26 lengths back to the seventh and nearly a furlong back to the last in the field of 13. Top jumps races are not often won in such a fashion, let alone top Flat races at just a mile and on ground on the fast side of good.

It is not necessary to understand ratings to appreciate such special occasions. But ratings are a way of measuring the worth of performances in a wider historical context, and events like Saturday's test not just the participants but the methods that handicappers use.

As stated previously, the idea that you should pick a horse which has "run to form" and base your entire assessment of a race around that - so-called yardstick handicapping - is dubious at the best of times and is especially flawed when dealing with unexposed horses still short of maturity.

It is also patently wrong to apply the same pounds-per-length allowances to all races at a given distance regardless of the circumstances. And, yet, such handicapping-by-convenience continues to be peddled in some quarters.

At Timeform we use a suite of handicapping tools (click HERE to find out more about how we do things) to assist in coming up with ratings. These include race standardisation - whereby the likely strength of a race is established from precedent, after adjustment for time, conditions, field size, margins between horses and so on - prior-rating standardisation and time analysis.

Each of these measures independently pointed to Frankel's winning performance being worthy of a figure in the mid-to-high 130s on the bare result: a bare-form 137 falls well within the range of likely figures.

But 'the bare result' does not always tell the whole story, including, arguably, here. Frankel went off in front and ran his rivals ragged. By halfway, he was at least 10 lengths clear of the main pack, most of whom were hard at work while he was still travelling within himself. It was only late in the day that he looked like winning by anything other than a record margin.

Sectional analysis would have helped greatly in measuring the merit of how Frankel went about winning the 2000 Guineas, and not just that he did. But British racing does not have official sectionals, and the falseness of this economy becomes especially apparent on occasions like this.

Nonetheless, it is possible to establish that Frankel got to halfway in about 47.5 sec (after response delay and parallax error is accounted for). That is significantly faster than the Guineas for which we have electronic sectionals, including ones run under quicker conditions than this year's. Frankel appeared to be posting 11-second or near-11-second furlong sectionals mid-race, something more likely to be seen in a top sprint.

Frankel gave a substantial beating to the placed horses Dubawi Gold (rated 121, just below the standard for a Guineas runner-up) and Native Khan (rated 120, just above par for a third), but the likelihood is that it could have been even more. The extra two lengths (5 lb) that Timeform's race reporter added is conservative but takes the colt's rating up to 142.

By comparison, the aforementioned Tudor Minstrel earned a rating of 144 at his best, as did Brigadier Gerard, winner of the Guineas in 1971. Sea The Stars and Harbinger were both rated 140 - at longer distances - in recent years. No horse had run to higher than 130 in the Guineas since Dancing Brave in 1986.

Frankel's 142 rating will be tested by his performances, and by the performances of those he beat pointless at Newmarket, through the rest of the year. In that sense it is 'provisional', but it is a rating that we at Timeform are happy to stand by given the evidence available at this stage. That evidence includes an outstanding final time, translating to a timefigure of 136.

Only very good horses can run times like that. Surely only a true great could run one having gone so fast so early.

Timeform look back over the weekend's classic action at Newmarket......

The five-day Punchestown Festival kicks off on Tuesday and Timeform's Simon Baker is on hand to take you through what's in store.......

There's plenty in store in the coming week, kicking off with Sunday's 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and also including the Chester May meeting and the Punchestown Festival.......

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