Events
/ Geoffrey Riddle / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment
St Nicholas Abbey will do his very best to get the better of the very well-backed Worforce
An all-star cast goes head-to-head in the Betfair-sponsored King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at 16:30. But there's plenty of other racing before that and Geoffrey Riddle is the man to talk you through it all.
Feel free to comment in the box below, or get in touch with our man on theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @louchepunter
Wrap:
Well folks, that's it for the day. Nathaniel's victory makes him the first three-year-old to win the King George since Alamashar in 2003. His success acts as a springboard for a tilt at the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in October, where he will meet Pour Moi.
John Gosden will have to persuade Lady Rothschild, the owner, to take her winner's cheque of £603k and carve it up as Nathaniel will have to be supplemented for Paris as the entry stage to the race was missed.
Nathaniel's win will be forever associated with Rewilding's death, but hand in hand with that is that William Buick, the winning jockey, rode for his homeland of Norway, who suffered that tragic bombing on Friday. Sometimes, the racing action seems to be just a sideshow to this game.
See you next time.
5.40pm result:
1: Aiken
2: Masaraat
3: Mulaqen
5.35pm:
Audacious, the Queen's horse, was rearing badly in the pre-parade ring ten minutes ago. He was on his hind legs on several occasions and looked extremely edgy. He seems to have quietened down now, but I'd give him a wide berth if you were contemplating backing the mount of Ryan Moore.
5.25pm:
Frankie Dettori is reportedly okay after his fall on Rewilding, apologies for the misleading info earlier. Ahmed Ajtebi has taken the ride on Godolphin's Parlour Games in the last and confirmed as much. "He is fine," he said. "No problems. This is just a precaution. He will be riding at Goodwood next week.
In other news, Nathaniel is now 7-1 for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, which is shaping up now to be a magnificent cap to a sensational season.
Nathaniel is second favourite after justifying the £75,000 supplementary entry that his owners were required to stump up to get him in the King George.
He is priced the same as Workforce, Meadre and Safafina, all of whom are behind 3-1 favourite Pour Moi.
William Buick, the rider of Nathaniel, thinks that is an accurate reflection of his colt's chances at this stage.
"I think we can beat anything other than this year's Derby winner," he said.
4.30pm result - King George
1: Nathaniel
2: Workforce
Frankie Dettori was injured after Rewilding suffered a serious injury in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
Rewilding was just coming to challenge St Nicholas Abbey as the field entered the straight when he broke down, throwing the Italian to the turf.
The horse shattered a cannon bone, and was caught by John Gosden, who was watching the race by the stands' side rail.
The colt was put down after suffering no pain, according to Gosden.
"These things happen," said the winning trainer. "I've seen it happen on stud farms, in paddocks, when horses are loose in the wild. He shattered a cannon bone but I must emphasise he felt no pain at all.
"Nature anithesises horses who suffer this sort of injury. We fed him a bit of grass and then the vet looked after him superbly."
4.07pm:
Timeform's Simon Rowlands points out that although the King George is short on numbers, it certainly isn't short on quality.
I've already pointed out that a proven Group 1 winner is acting as pacemaker today, but Rowlands goes further.
He highlights that you have to go back eight years since there were more horses in the King George rated by Timeform over 128.
4.05pm:
It might be worth having a look at the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe market now. Last year, after Harbinger's crushing victory Sir Michael Stoute's horse was priced up at Evens for the Arc by Hills. He never made it to France.
Connections of Godolphin insist that Rewilding will look to contest the British Champions Series final back here in the autumn. Given his defeat of So You Think over 10f at the Royal Meeting dipped almost two seconds under standard time on good ground he has every right to contest that race.
Aidan O'Brien has So You Think also for the Arc, also, so St Nicholas Abbey may not even travel to Paris.
Therefore, it may be worth considering taking a position in the ante-post market on Workforce. I tried it with Reliable Man prior to the Grand Prix de Paris, but as he bombed I'm in a shocking position now. I'm sure some of you guys can do a lot better.
3.50pm result - International
1: Bronze Prince
2: The Confessor
3: Noble Citizen
4: Pravda Street
5: Atlantic Sport
3.40pm:
For what it is worth, Our Jonathan, Imperial Guest and Noble Citizen looked the pick of the paddock.
3.15pm result:
1: Rave
2: Albaasil
3: Aerial Acclaim
John Gosden's Russian Revival was the last favourite to oblige in the International, and that was in 1999. That he was 9-1 joint favourite, having finished second in what was then the Cork and Orrery Stakes at Royal Ascot just shows how competitive this contest can be. What price would Monsieur Chevalier be in this?
Hawkeyethenoo is the [8.8] jolly at the moment. I've laid him.
3.15pm:
Big handicap experience is essential if you are going to win the International. If you look at the winners down the years, all of them prepped in big fields.
Below is record of International winners in the big handicaps before their victories.
Royal Hunt Cup:
Tillerman was 5th, Atavus was 4th and New Seeker won it at York in 2005. Dabbers Ridge was 12th.
Bunbury Cup:
Tillerman was 11th, Atavus won it while Court Masterpiece, a subsequent Group 1 winner was second. Al Muheer scarcely deserves a mention, having finished 18th.
Buckingham Palace Stakes:
Third Set was third, Laa Rayb fifth, Al Muheer was second.
Victoria Cup:
New Seeker was 9th in 2005 while Laa Rayb unseated Robert Winston.
3.10pm:
There has been a sustained run on the Godolphin runner, My Freedom. Frankie Dettori's mount was matched at as big as [7.6], and now trades at [4.9].
3pm:
It is probably fair to say that connections of Albaasil are a little deflated, at the moment. Shiekh Hamdan's racing manager, Angus Gold, paid a monstrous 320,000gns for the son of Dansili so picking up £12,450 for winning at Newmarket last time aint going to pay the cheques. Still, the Sheikh can probably afford the training fees at Freemason Lodge, but the situation does illustrate how much potential Albaasil once harboured.
He did the job very well at Newmarket, and could be a lot better if Richard Hills could teach him to settle better.
"Albaasil´s an improving horse and the key is switching him off as he can be keen early. We haven´t discussed plans as he only won his maiden last month," Gold said.
He looks a Group horse in the making, much like Sri Putra, who won this handicap off an official rating of 105 in two years ago. Albaasil is only on 98, so if he's to justify his lofty price tag he'll have to take this.
"He ran once as a two-year-old last year and fell apart afterwards," Gold added. "He was small when we bought him but he has more scope now."
2.40pm result: Prince Margaret Stakes
1: Angels Will Fall
2: Regal Realm
3: Miss Lahar
Angels Will Fall was in interesting runner indeed there, wasn't she?
Jimmy Fortune made a late challenge on Regal Realm, who looked to be going the best when compared to her six rivals. Jeremy Noseda's charge was backed down to [1.75] in-running but Robert Winston pulled out more in the closing stages and looked to win with a bit in hand.
The Princess Margaret has been won by some very classy fillies in the past decade, including Russian Rhythm, who won four subsequent Group 1 races, including the 1,000 Guineas and the Lockinge, while Lady Of The Desert has become a sprinter of note.
2.25pm:
Angels Will Fall is in interesting runner, having had only one start. It was, however, at Windsor, which is increasingly proving to be crucial a breeding ground for juveniles who succeed at Ascot.
Scarlet Runner won at Windsor before winning this race in 2006 at 5-1, and in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot five of the last 11 winners of that race had prepped by the river Thames.
2.20pm:
Aidan O'Brien has just taken his son, Joseph out to walk the course, according to the Guardian's Chris Cook.
It's a hell of a responsibility for an 18-year-old man, the ride on St Nicholas Abbey. Still, Lester Piggott was 15 when he rode Zucchero into second place in the inaugural King George in 1951, so O'Brien junior has a strong precedent.
2.15pm:
With a fine second to Gamilati in the Cherry Hinton at the July Meeting, Russelliana attained a level of form that would have won four out of the last ten Princess Margarets.
In terms of what she has achieved when compared to her other six rivals she is head and shoulders (withers?) above the opposition.
Even though Regal Realm managed to push Gamilati to within a head on her only start, that race was back in May and it was therefore a completely different Gamilati, raw and weak, to the one that scored at Newmarket.
It is easy to see why Russelliana is trading as the [2.18] favourite, especially when you consider her trainer, Sir Michael Stoute has won this race twice from only two entrants in the past decade.
2.05pm result - Winkfield Stakes:
1: Talwar
2: Trumpet Major
3: Pearl Charm
1: Telwar
2: Trumpet Major
3: Pearl Charm
A thrilling battle between Talwar and Trumpet Major, who was discarded by Richard Hughes in favour of Pearl Charm.
Jimmy Fortune just outdid Ryan Moore, who was matched at [1.31] in the final furlong. I'm surprised it wasn't lower as Moore looked to come with a solid challenge. Still, the layers got it right in-running.
1.55pm
Comical looks the pick of the paddock. A large, power-packed colt by Dubai Destination, he probably needs further than today's 7f already. His father acted on soft, as did his mother, a Sadler's Wells mare. Mark Johnston's colt should act on today's going.
Comical couldn't handle Red Duke when the pair met at Redcar last month. He looked a little one-paced and his conqueror went on to win the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket's July meeting.
Still, his form looks slightly shy of Pearl Charm's and Talwar's. Jeremy Noseda's colt made eye-catching progress on his second start when winning his maiden at Sandown, a race that has produced Zacinto, Scintillo and Mister Monet in the past decade.
1.40pm:
Pearl Charm posted a decent rating when beating ten others in a Doncaster maiden in June. The race has not worked out too well with only one subsequent winner, but there was seven lengths back to the third that day.
Owned by the Qatari gang behind Qipco, the sponsors of the British Champions Series, it is no surprise to see that the favourite is one of the most expensive purchases in the race.
Pearl Charm was sold at Keeneland auction in 2010 for €155,000, which is around €107k. Talwar went for €140,000 at Tattersalls.
1.30pm result:
1: Captain Ramius
2: Lightening Cloud
3: Don't Call Me
4: Den's Gift
The winner came straight down the middle there, with jockey Hayley Moore gravitating from stall 5 on the far side to win on her own. The horse was well-fancied.
It probably doesn't tell us much ahead of the International, as the second, Lightening Cloud emerged from stall 17 and was amongst the favourites.
1.21pm:
If Ryan Moore does not win the King George on Workforce today, no accusations can be levelled at him that he hasn't been professional in his preparation. The Dubai Racing channel presenter has just snapped the former champion jockey walking the course:
1.05pm:
The King George betting market is a magnificent illustration of how markets, whether financial or wagering, operate.
If you look at any ratings service, all of them point to St Nicholas Abbey being the third best horse in the race.
Timeform rate Workforce at 140, Rewilding on 139 and 2009's big thing on 135. Purely on this year's performances, St Nicholas Abbey lags behind the front two also, and in the list of the top performers in 2011 he lies in 12th place.
Workforce's duel with So You Think at Sandown in the Eclipse was the best middle-distance turf effort in the world in 2011, with Rewilding's victory in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes now rated sixth in the world.
When doubts emerged earlier this week about the participation of Workforce, St Nicholas Abbey was mistakenly driven down to Evens in some places. Now all the information is known the Ballydoyle challenger has finally reached his true price on Betfair. He has drifted all the way out to [4.9] in the outright market and touched [2.5] in the place market. Is there any value left in the race at all?
12.35pm:
In big handicaps I always like to back one horse from each side of the course and trainer George Margarson is in that position, with Imperial Guest and Excellent Guest drawn on opposite sides of the track in the 3.50pm.
Imperial Guest is drawn on the stands side in stall 21, and Margarson believes that is where the race will develop.
"They're both in good nick and I'm quite pleased because one is drawn one side, and one is drawn the other," said the jovial trainer.
"I think there are pace horses on both sides but having looked at the race, I can see it opening up on the stands side, which would lend itself well to Imperial Guest.
"I think he won this race last year on the far side, so of the two I would probably just favour him.
"It is hard to know with the draw but if they were both drawn in the same place, I'd favour Imperial Guest to beat Excellent Guest."
The stats would seem to favour Margarson's choice, also. Six of the last seven winners of the International carried an official rating of 97 over the finishing line. For all you stats punters out there, that's the top seven in the field down to Imperial Guest.
12.25pm:
I should point out that today is in fact the 34th anniversary of the Minstrel's victory in the King George. All of you out there who consider Grundy v Bustino the best clash on turf should also consider Lester Piggott's steal of the Ascot showpiece. Piggott nicked it from Pat Eddery just before the line. That Long Fellow, eh? What a card.
12.05pm:
For those of you who love a Royal, and let's face it, after Wills and Kate's recent nuptials there are a few of you, Prince Harry will be on hand today to hand out the trophies to the winner today.
Midday:
The main market movers at Ascot on Betfair today are below.
Striking Spirit is an interesting one in the International. The Oasis Dream gelding was transferred out of Dandy Nicholls' yard to Tim Easterby at the beginning of this season before his run at Musselburgh, when he finished 15th of 16.
The six-year-old subsequently finished third to Manassas at Royal Ascot and was the first home of those drawn on the far side. Seb Sanders negotiated a path into the centre of the track that day and the next one to past the post from that group was Our Jonathan, who finished 8th as the 5-1 favourite.
Sanders rode a silly race next time on the July course when abandoning his draw beside eventual winner Brae Hill. If it all goes to plan today, and the money on Betfair suggests it should, he is certainly in with a big chance.
13:30
Lightning Cloud 4.1 out to 7.0
14:05
Talwar 3.7 out to 5.9
14:40
Russelliana 2.36 in to 2.1
15:50
Striking Spirit 17.0 in to 12.0
The Confessor 16.0 in to 12.0
Noble Citizen 21.0 in to 14.0
17:40
Parlour Games 6.8 in to 5.4
Masaraat 4.8 out to 8.0
Mulaqen 9.4 in to 7.8
11.55am:
There is a host of information available on the site, with Timeform pouring over the runners and riders in the two big races. Read about the International here and the King George, here.
I've been circling Manassas in the International, with the intention of perhaps backing the Buckingham Palace Stakes winner but there is not a lot to go on, betting wise, as only £2,300 has been matched on Brian Meehan's runner.
If you want to know the ins and outs of the Irishman's string today click here, as well as Michael Bell's click here.
Finally, Graham Cunningham knows a thing or two, and although he reckons Workforce is the one to be on in the King George, he has given punters a leg up with their Scoop6 selections by going off-piste at York here.
11.45am:
A hearty welcome to you all from the middle leg of the three-day Betfair weekend. The optimism built up since I arrived this morning has been dashed. I came up the famous Ascot hill from the railway station under blue skies, but it has now clouded over. Ominous. Still, if anything can brighten up your racing day it is the feast of action tom come from here in Berkshire.
The International Stakes is the betting feature, but for sheer class the King George is going to be tough to beat. There have been those this week who have tried to crab Ascot's great race, but when you've got an Arlington Million winner, which is a Group 1 if anyone needs reminding, priced at [130.0] on Betfair then you know we've got a classy contest to come.
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