Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Some Say to prove he's no talking horse

Irish 1-2-3 / Stuart Jones / 10 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

"A reproduction of that form would be sufficient to go close and, given that she's open to plenty more improvement, she's strongly fancied to go one better".

Sunday's action comes from Fairyhouse and Sligo...

The six-furlong listed race at Fairyhouse looks a competitive heat, but Rose Bonheur (15.05) has frequently shaped as if good enough to make her mark as a sprinter at this level, and rates as a very worthy favourite. Kevin Prendergast's filly ran well when just under two lengths third to Emulous in a Group 3 over seven furlongs here last time, despite her stamina being stretched, and this is a slightly easier opportunity. Still unexposed at this trip, Rose Bonheur is worth siding with at [4.5].

Some Say (16.15) could barely have been any more eyecatching when second in a maiden hurdle over this C&D on her reappearance, still travelling noticably well in rear three out and appearing to have running left in her as she stayed on into a never-nearer second behind Lisrenny Lady. A reproduction of that form would be sufficient to go close and, given that she's open to plenty more improvement, she's strongly fancied to go one better.

Onzo Mor (17.15) hasn't had too many chances for his new yard and shaped well enough last time to suggest he is well up to defying his current mark of 103. He's only been raised a 1 lb for a good ½-length second to Take A Shot in a handicap at Roscommon last time, that looking pretty lenient given it was a competitive race, and he heads the Timeform ratings for this similar event. His current prices of [7.0] makes him a very attractive each-way proposition.

Recommendations

back Rose Bonheur @ [4.5] in the 15.05 at Fairyhouse
back Some Say @ [3.25] in the 16.15 at Sligo
back Onzo Mor win and place @ [7.0] in the 17.15 at Sligo

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The action comes from Tipperary today and we've come up with a couple of win bets and a lay.......

We have got one to back and two to lay on a what is a busy night in Ireland......

Plenty of small fields at Leopardstown today but some interesting racing all the same and we've found a lay and a couple of win bets......

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Premier League Talking Point: Villa for the drop?

Premier League / Richard Aikman / 20 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gerard Houllier's team could well be dragged into the relegation reckoning

"Blackpool can’t defend for toffee and have mustered just five points from their last six matches, but how can they be [2.28] to get relegated when Villa – against whom they drew 1-1 recently – are [8.2]?"

The number of teams who are still unable to take their Premier League status for granted is a testament to the drama of the top flight, says Richard Aikman. Could a long odds candidate yet be be dragged into the relegation reckoning?

If the Premier League is not the best league in Europe in terms of quality it is certainly one of the most compelling. There are few championships in which the big guns can so regularly be toppled by the sides battling against relegation and in which, with eight games to go, over half of the division is still not technically safe from the drop.

Wolves were bottom of the league when they ended Manchester United's unbeaten record last month and they are still third from bottom despite collecting 11 points from their last six matches. In fact, it seems that no matter how well Wolves play there seems to be a force-field keeping them penned back in the bottom three. They can, however, take comfort from the trust of Betfair punters, who believe Mick McCarthy's men - at [3.25] to go down - will stay up.

West Bromwich Albion, meanwhile, have mustered seven points in the same timeframe, are unbeaten under Roy Hodgson and came within a whisker of completing the double over Arsenal yesterday. Yet the Baggies are hovering just a point above the trapdoor and rated even more likely relegation fodder than their Midlands rivals [3.05].

Despite beating Birmingham 2-1 on Saturday, and finding themselves within three points of 13th-placed Blackburn Rovers, rock-bottom Wigan are odds-on [1.45] to be playing Championship football next season, with the Blues [2.76] set for both the Europa League and the English second-tier next season.

Birmingham have been unfortunate with injuries of late. The loss of James McFadden and Scott Dann has hit them particularly hard this season but few tears will be shed outside of England's second city if the Blues do take a tumble. They are, at times, unwatchable. The purchase of Nikola Zigic tells you everything you need to know about Alex McLeish's gameplan, which largely consists of packing the midfield with warhorses and hoping for the big Serb or a central defender to get on the end of a set-piece. ESPN's interview with Alexander Hleb earlier this season was a telling insight into how desperate he was finding the football at St Andrews' ("Our game is kick and rush and fight and this is not the game I like. It's difficult, sometimes you don't take the ball for five minutes because... [looks up at imaginary long balls going to and fro overhead]."

McLeish's approach is in marked contrast to Ian Holloway's and, if there is any justice in this game, Blackpool will be around to entertain us again next season. But justice and football are seldom the best of bedfellows, as evidenced by Blackburn Rovers' last-gasp equaliser at Ewood Park, courtesy of a hail mary into the penalty area, a poor clearance and a deflected header into the net. The Seasiders, like Rovers, West Brom and Aston Villa have 33 points from 30 matches and yet they are rated the side most likely to go down [2.28] after Wigan.

Admittedly, Blackpool can't defend for toffee and have mustered just five points from their last six matches, but how can they be [2.28] to get relegated when Villa - against whom they drew 1-1 recently - are [8.2]? Part of the reason Blackpool have struggled recently is because their standout player this season, Charlie Adam, missed the Wolves and Chelsea matches through suspension, while DJ Campbell - who had scored seven goals in 11 matches before getting sent off at Molineux - has also been sorely missed.

Furthermore Blackpool have five home matches left to play and they will surely get points against Wigan, Newcastle and Stoke. In fact, you couldn't rule out a result against the Gunners based on the way are playing just now.

Villa, meanwhile, seem to have escaped most people's relegation reckoning because they are, well, Aston Villa. Apparently, they have enough established names (Darren Bent, Stewart Downing, Ashley Young) to get them out of trouble. But if that were the case they wouldn't be where they are now, would they? Gerard Houllier's side have managed just one win and a draw from their last six matches in all competitions and lost their last three matches in succession.

Houllier took a gamble by essentially forfeiting their FA Cup fifth round stage and it has backfired. Admittedly, the Frenchman has had injuries to contend with and the City and Bolton reverses were hardly unexpected, but the crowd have now turned on a side whose January signings Jean Makoun, Kyle Walker and Darren Bent need time to adapt. But time is running out.

With the exception of their next match - Everton away - and their last two - Arsenal (away), Liverpool (home), Villa have a relatively benign run-in on paper. But they will be playing against sides who are themselves scrapping for survival (Newcastle, West Ham, Stoke, West Brom and Wigan). Should they lose to an improving Everton side on April 2, which I wouldn't bet against, four successive defeats would exacerbate an already fragile mental environment at the club, where reports of in-fighting between coaches and players has been the only mark of consistency.

January signings make the difference as Chelsea and Liverpool continue their excellent form with wins over Manchester City and Sunderland respectively......

Berbatov's late strike steals late win for United as Arsenal drop points and last gasp strikes fire relegation fight......

Feizal Rahman selects the best bets as the richest clubs in England go head to head. Top Stat: Manchester City are unbeaten in their last eight league visits to the capital...

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Premier League Talking Point: Why Fergie still has lots to learn about tact

Premier League / Richard Aikman / 06 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

A law unto himself?

"Ferguson clearly feels that he can bring his own pressure to bear on the appointment of referees by speaking out."

Sir Alex is up to his old tricks - lambasting referees in order to divert attention from his team, trying to influence officials and shunning the media - but Richard Aikman wants to know if the powers will stand up to the Manchester United manager or do sweet FA...

We all know that football managers are biased. They will inevitably view the performances of match officials through one eye, because their livelihood can hinge on the decision of the men in black, or green or whatever colour it is they wear these days.

They certainly don't wear red. Not as far as Arsene Wenger is concerned anyway. The Arsenal manager labeled Anthony Taylor's decision to rule out Andrey Arshavin's goal for a non-existent offside on Saturday as "disgusting" and "disappointing" but at least he had the good grace to say, "What can we do about it? We must take it on the chin". As a result of that decision - and Arsenal's poor finishing - the Gunners are now three points behind Manchester United and out to [3.8] form [2.72] to win the title.

Blackburn boss Steve Kean was also restrained - unlike his players - when discussing the contentious late penalty that condemned his side to a 3-2 defeat at Fulham, admitting that "technically, he [referee Mark Clattenburg] is probably right that there was a bit of contact. But if that happens you would have to give ten penalties a match." As a result of that decision - and Rovers' bad defending - Blackburn are now just two points above the relegation zone and [4.8] to go down. Kean's response was disgruntled, but dignified.

Sir Alex Ferguson, on the other hand has shown no such tact. He is up on his latest FA charge for questioning the integrity of referee Martin Atkinson, after he awarded Chelsea a soft penalty against Manchester United at Stamford Bridge and sent off Nemanja Vidic for repetitive fouling. "You hope you get a strong referee in games like this," said Ferguson. "It was a major game for both clubs. You want a fair referee - or a strong referee, anyway - and we didn't get that. I don't know why he has got the game. I must say, when I saw who the referee was I did fear it. I feared the worst." As a result of Atkinson's display, and United's poor finishing, the Red Devils's odds lengthened to [1.78], though they are now [1.56] following Arsenal's stalemate with Sunderland.

The first thing to say about Ferguson's comments is that he contends that a match like Chelsea v United should be treated differently to any other match, which is a flagrant insult to other clubs. He also clearly feels that he can bring his own pressure to bear on the appointment of referees by speaking out.

Of course, the main reason behind Ferguson's comments was to divert attention away from his side's unexpected defeat - an age-old technique that has become his trademark. He feels that he can get away with it too because he has been slapped on the wrist so many times that he has become a law unto himself.

Ferguson had every right to be frustrated. David Luiz could have been dismissed for his foul on Wayne Rooney, but the 69-year-old's reaction to the foul was risible when you consider that Rooney should not have been playing in the first place after elbowing Wigan's James McCarthy the previous Saturday. The former Aberdeen manager even suggested the incident would result in the press "raising a campaign to get [Rooney] hung or electrocuted" - yet another example of Ferguson pressurising the notoriously weak FA into doing nothing about the incident.

So it will be interesting to see how the FA reacts to Ferguson's decision to appeal his charge for his Atkinson outburst. According to reports, the Scotsman has rejected legal advice to accept the charge - which would have resulted in a three-match touchline ban, starting with today's trip to Anfield. By doing so he could receive an extended suspension for repeat offending and wasting everyone's time.

But Ferguson knows that the FA is loath to alienate him and he has calculated that when the hearing takes place (probably 25 March) his side will have already played Liverpool, Arsenal (FA Cup) and Bolton anyway, by which time they might have built up enough leeway to cope with the absence of their magus from winable games against West Ham (a), Fulham (h), Newcastle (a) and Everton (h).

The next fixture in the calendar after that is Arsenal (h) in the league and it will be interesting to see whether or not the FA stands up to Ferguson by invoking its right to extend his punishment to a five-match ban.

With perfect timing Kenny Dalglish has waded into the debate. "It is impossible for officials not to make mistakes," he said. "But there is a respect campaign in football and I want to know whether we are going to be the only ones who adhere to it." In other words, are you going to act or do sweet FA?

It will be interesting to see what Ferguson does in the unlikely event that the FA does mete out a five-match ban. Maybe he'll refuse to talk to them. After all, he's not talking to the BBC and he's not talking to MUTV. He's probably not even talking to his wife at the moment. But then how will he exert any influence with the hairdryer turned off?

Sir Alex is up to his old tricks - lambasting referees in order to divert attention from his team, trying to influence officials and shunning the media - but Richard Aikman wants to know if the powers will stand up...

Kuyt hat-trick earns Liverpool key win and condemns United to second consecutive defeat. Meanwhile, Wolves and Spurs slug out six goal thriller......

Blackpool have pulled off some shock results this season, but with two of their star performers missing, Dan 'The Betting Man' Fitch thinks that Chelsea will prove too strong for The Tangerines. Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [1.54]....

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