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Torneo Final Big Match preview: Weakened Vélez will still test River's impressive home form

"Expect some early tentative prodding and probing before the game settles, and it should all open up once one team has scored."

Back Draw/River on the HT/FT @ 5.79/2

There are many games in Argentina this weekend that could be deemed important or intriguing enough to be labelled our 'big match' this week, but the defending champions visiting a potential champion just about pips it. Ed Malyon takes a look...

Vélez Sarsfield head into the city to play River Plate in a fascinating game between two of the best sides in the country right now.

River seem to permanently have one of the strongest playing squads in the league but the unique set of circumstances surrounding the club, especially the pressure or playing for such a giant, mean that things have rarely been plain-sailing for the Millionarios in recent seasons.

Having returned from their humiliating relegation to the Primera B in 2011, Matías Almeyda failed to make a talented squad into a genuine contender and left his post in late 2012.

Ramón Diaz returned to the club as manager, and 2013 has started very well for the club.

At the beginning of the weekend they are in third, and although Lanús look a tough act to catch as things stand, the meeting between the two sides later in the campaign is likely to be the championship decider one way or another.

This weekend Diaz has changed his system to a 4-4-2, and it is difficult to know how this will turn out. Leading scorer Diego 'Chino' Luna misses out again, so David Trezeguet will play up front and Rodrigo Mora will be the man charged with doing all his legwork for him. Opting for a 4-4-2 rather than the previously preferred 3-4-1-2 will give River more options in wide areas, so we might see this formation getting the best out of Trezeguet, who has started to find some goalscoring form with two goals in his last three home games.

For all River's ups and downs over the last few years, Vélez have been the very picture of stability and their sustained success on the field is doubtlessly down to the sensible way in which the club is run.

Ricardo Gareca has been given years in the job - a rare luxury on this continent - and continually evolves and regenerates his side, understanding that he must sell his players at the peak of their value in order to maintain progress.

Nonetheless, the quality of his sides rarely waver and the loan signing of Fernando Gago - exceptional for Argentina at the weekend and undoubtedly a top international midfielder - has been a coup for the Fortín.

Gareca has had to rely on youngsters to step up too, but they do so with an alarming regularity and 20-year-old full-back Gino Perruzi made a first Argentina start on Tuesday evening to continue his remarkable development after famously shackling Neymar in last year's Copa Libertadores.

The other thing that Gareca does well is invest, and the purchase of young forward Facundo Ferreyra from Banfield turned out to be inspired as his late-season rush of form turned out to be vital in them winning the Torneo Inicial in December. Probably more importantly though, Vélez can expect to sell him for around five times what they bought him for when his European suitors finally decide to stump up the cash.

This season hasn't begun so well for Vélez, with Gareca admiring that the Copa Libertadores is his priority and playing weakened sides in the league, but for games like this there is little chance of him resting players.

By that token, the side Gareca puts out is expected to be as strong as possible, although Gago (unfit) and Fabian Cubero (suspended) are both missing. They are comfortable in their 4-3-1-2 shape and up against River's tactical experiment they will be undoubtedly be the more settled side, even though River have a touch more quality.

River: Marcelo Barovero; Gabriel Mercado, Leandro González Pirez, Jonathan Bottinelli, Diego Martínez; Carlos Sánchez, Cristian Ledesma, Leonardo Ponzio, Leonel Vangioni; Rodrigo Mora, David Trezeguet.
Vélez: Sosa; Peruzzi, Sabia, Domínguez, Papa; Bella, Cerro, Romero; Insúa; Copete, Pratto.

Match odds

With Vélez having won the last three meetings between these two and River boasting just one victory in their last seven meetings, Gareca's side have the clear advantage in recent times. 

River are obvious favourites at 2.3411/8 given current league position, but also because of how strong they've been at El Monumental this season. Three wins from three will give them much confidence heading into Saturday's match, and the absence of Gago, Cubero and Facundo Ferreyra from the Vélez lineup means that this price seems justified, even if you know that Gareca will always put out a competitive and hard-to-beat XI.

Goals

As touched on before, Vélez will be difficult to break down - even for River - and the central defensive partnership of Sebastián Dominguez and Juan Sabia are very solid at this level. 

Four of Vélez's last 15 games have gone over 2.5 goals, but all of those have been when the Fortín were sticking a few goals past far weaker opposition, something we shouldn't expect at River.

The hosts have seen five of their last 15 go over that mark, and three in eight since Diaz took over. While the price is as short as 1.584/7 the unders are to be avoided, with half of River's 12 home games going overs since they returned to the top flight.

The value lies in the overs at 2.68/5 even though the visitors will look to stay compact.

Other bets

Expect some early tentative prodding and probing before the game settles, and it should all open up once one team has scored. On that model, Draw/River on the HT/FT market looks a tempting bet at 5.79/2 or even just the half-time draw at 2.111/10.

Lucas Pratto's physical approach could trouble River's defence - definitely the hosts' weakest area - so Both Teams to Score is also worth consideration at 2.0621/20.

Recommended Bet
Back Draw/River on the HT/FT @ 5.79/2

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Cash Out: Anfield victims Tottenham still turn a profit

"Walker's folly may have gifted Stewart Downing the equaliser but punters already nervous of the red tide could have received a present of their own."

Do You...Don't You? Cash Out is the unique Betfair tool that allows you to lock in a profit or minimise losses regardless of the final result. Christian Crowther reviews where the optimum Cash Out profits were to be had from the weekend's Premier League action...

Tottenham's long unbeaten run of 12 Premier League games looked in little danger of ending at Anfield after Jan Vertonghen's second goal of the game put Spurs 2-1 ahead in the 53rd minute.

In truth, Tottenham deserved their lead. The visitors, having responded well to Luis Suarez's beautifully crafted opener by going on to dominate the latter stages of the first half and the opening minutes of the second, collected their reward of goals either side of the oranges.

It's now 22 Premier League strikes for Suarez, who moves three clear of Robin van Persie at the top of the charts and is rated at 1.645/8 to stay there until May.

However, Liverpool's recent league form, in which they'd handed out a 5-0 and 4-0 thumping to first Swansea and then Wigan, suggested ample scope for a Reds revival with plenty of time on the clock. And so it transpired, albeit with the aid of some dubious Tottenham defending it must be said.

In particular, Spurs' right back Kyle Walker would not have enjoyed seeing his backpass on Match of the Day 2, if he'd even bothered to tune in.

Walker's folly may have gifted Stewart Downing the equaliser but punters already nervous of the red tide could have received a present of their own. 

If backers of the Tottenham win had chosen to Cash Out in the minutes before Liverpool drew level then they could have locked in a profit of £42.74.

Although the game wasn't televised, followers of Stoke's demise at Newcastle could have revelled in a post lead-taking Cash Out.

Had they been quick enough to spot that Jonathan Walters' 67th-minute opener would only serve to provoke the Geordies' third straight home league comeback, then the ensuing five minutes of positive Cash Out - before Yohan Cabaye's equaliser - saw a weekend high peak of £62.96.

The below table details which teams have been ripest for in-play pilfering in the Premier League this season...

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Twenty20 Betting: England still capable of pruning Proteas

"There were hints of England getting to grips with the game in Durham"

Back-to-lay England at 2.226/5

Ed Hawkins, the SJA Betting Writer of the Year, says it is not all gloom for the hosts against South Africa and they can put up a strong challenge at Old Trafford on Monday

England
Dismantled is probably the word for England's defeat by South Africa at Durham on Saturday. Yet there seems little the hosts can do in terms of personnel. They just need to play better.

Perhaps there is a case for Stuart Broad, the captain, batting lower than No 8, but that seems unlikely. Luke Wright is a potential draftee but a bowler would have to make way and at the moment Jade Dernbach and Steven Finn are considered key cogs.

South Africa
It could be argued that it was IPL experience which proved key for South Africa in the north east, a bitter point for the England management on the same day they effectively ended Kevin Pietersen's international career over a spat which began with his demand to play more in the tournament.

Dale Steyn and Johan Botha were brilliantly economical, going at 3.25 and 4.75 respectively while JP Duminy and Jacques Kallis, both stalwarts of IPL middle-orders, got the batting out of a hole.

Venue and conditions
Our luck is in for the second match running in the gloomy north: no rain forecast. The average first dig score from a paltry three matches at Old Trafford is 144. Last year England chased down 166 set by India. Certainly more than 160 looks unlikely this time around.

Match odds
It would be easy for England to throw the baby out with the bath water following South Africa's comprehensive win in Durham by seven wickets. Punters likewise who followed them at decent odds against.

But it would be reactionary in the extreme to write off the hosts, despite the last defeat being their fifth in eight against a blooming Proteas this summer.

There were hints of England getting to grips with the game in Durham. Craig Kieswetter got them off to a decent start with the bat and then, after a disappointing collapse, England looked dangerous when reducing South Africa to 29 for three.

It means that at the very least England are worth support at 2.226/5 for a back-to-lay, some drift from the 2.1211/10 they were before the first Twenty20. South Africa are skinny at 1.784/5 and we rarely touch such thin offerings in this format.

Top England batsman
Confidence could be a little thin on the ground in the England batting camp after they struggled to 118. But Eoin Morgan is a man whose confidence is always hight in this format and he is the man to follow for those who want to play this market. Last time out on this ground he hit 49 from 27 balls to top score against India.

Top South Africa batsman
It is difficult to see past Kallis when he opens and delivers with a classy performance. He will be prohibitively short, of course, so perhaps Richard Levi, his opening partner, who has the ability to go off like a rocket, could be an exciting alternative.

Recommended bet
Bac-to-lay England at 2.226/5

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Steve Stricker recovers well and the four-timer's still on

“Stricker started round one slowly, turning in level par, but a fast finish has put him into contention and he ended the round on -6, thanks largely to a hole-out from the fairway for eagle on the 14th hole.”

Our man's struggling in Scotland but faring much better in Illinois. Can Steve Stricker kick-on at the John Deere Classic?

21:20 - July 13, 2012

I've just done a bit of recycling at the John Deere Classic. Laying some of my Troy Matteson bet back at 8.47/1 and using the returned stakes to back Robert Garrigus at the same price. Probably time to stop fiddling with it for today now.

16:30 - July 13, 2012

I've added a couple more very small bets.

I can't see Alex Noren lengthening from his current price. He still leads the Scottish Open on -12 and we're getting to a point in the day now whereby it's hard to see anyone making much of an impact. The weather is cooling off and most of the main contenders are well into their second rounds.

I like Noren because the weather is due to deteriorate on Sunday and he's a very good bad weather player.

And I've also had a small play in-running on Y.E Yang at the John Deere Classic. He's just got to -7 through ten holes of round two and although he still trails runaway leader Troy Matteson by five strokes, 60.059/1 is too big.

14:20 - July 13, 2012

Magical five minutes that.

With a chance to open up with three straight birdies, Matteson misses form just three feet on the 3rd hole. Then bogeys from all my other three - Stanley, Crane and Stricker immediately follow. Ouch!

14:10 - July 13, 2012

It was a day of low scoring everywhere yesterday. After Francesco Molinari had threatened to register the European Tour's first 59, Troy Matteson gave himself a chance to make the PGA Tour's sixth. In the end he came up a couple shy, shooting a ten-under-par 61 to lead the John Deere Classic by three shots after round one but there was a 59 yesterday after all. Bermudan Michael Sims, not to be confused with Australian Michael Sim, shot 59 at the eGolf Tour's Southern Open.

After a disappointing first day at the Scottish Open, my fortunes changed for the better at the John Deere Classic. All three of my picks started at the same time with both Steve Stricker and Kyle Stanley in the same three-ball. I got to see plenty of their play and for a long while I didn't like what I saw.

Stricker, attempting to win the event for the fourth time in-a-row started slowly and when he made the turn he was still on level par but a fast finish has put him into contention. He ended round one on -6, thanks largely to a hole-out from the fairway for eagle on the 14th hole. Stanley played some lovely neat tee-to-green golf but putted poorly and finished the day on just -3 but Ben Crane did me proud.

Playing the back-nine first, Crane got to -7 through just 13 holes, before bogeying both the 7th and 8th holes. It was a disappointing finish to the day but a good start all the same. And to add to my good start with my pre-event picks, I even managed to jump onboard early pace-setter Matteson at 48.047/1, albeit very modestly, after he'd gotten to -6 through ten holes.

All four players are playing now so it's going to be a nervy afternoon. I look in a decent position right now but it can soon go pear-shaped.

I'm going to leave the Scottish Open alone for now, with Molinari only just underway in round two, it's very hard to gauge where we'll be at halfway. I wouldn't want to back Molinari at his current price of 3.72/1 but nor would I want to commit to anyone else, only to see the Italian pick up from where he left off again. It's a wait and see what happens job for now.

13:30 - July 12, 2012

If any of your picks have an afternoon start today at the Scottish Open, they're probably already trading at quite a bit bigger than the price you took. Francesco Molinari has picked up from where he left off in France last week and shot 62 this morning. And for a while it looked as though the elusive 59 was on. It's never been shot on the European Tour but with benign conditions forecast until Sunday, this could be the week.

It's been a seamless transition from last week to this for Molinari and if you count his last nine holes on Sunday and his first nine today (the back-nine at Castle Stuart), he's shot 59 for his last 18. That's going some, but can someone do it in one round this week?

The Italian is now in the clubhouse and leading on -10 and he's already been matched at just 1.10n/a in the 1st Round Leader market and 3.62/1 in the Outright Winner market.

Defending champion, Luke Donald, has traded short too, at just 3.752/1, when he got to -7 through 13 holes but he slipped back a bit after that and has finished the round on -5.

My most disturbing moment, so far, was watching Ernie Els take an incredible four shots to extricate himself from a greenside bunker on the 6th hole. I'd consider the Big Easy one of the best bunker players in the world and given that's one of the reasons I've already backed him for next week's Open Championship, it made for slightly disturbing viewing!

I haven't got involved in-running but I did add one more selection after I'd written Tuesday's preview. I've backed James Morrison plenty of times this year (and last) so once more won't go amiss.

Play has only just got underway in the states, at the John Deere Classic, where all my picks have been assigned afternoon tee-times.

Scottish Open Pre-event Selections:
Thomas Bjorn @ 44.043/1
Branden Grace @ 60.059/1
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 95.094/1
James Morrison @ 210.0209/1

In-Play bets
Alex Noren @ 9.48/1

John Deere Classic Pre-event Selections:
Steve Stricker @ 8.67/1
Kyle Stanley @ 65.064/1
Ben Crane @ 65.064/1

In-Play bets
Troy Matteson @ 48.047/1
Y.E Yang @ 60.059/1
Troy Matteson layed @ 8.47/1
Robert Garrigus @ 8.47/1

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Kaymer still playing catch up

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jbe Kruger, sharing the lead in Malaysia after a strong comeback

“Kruger looked to be sauntering along on day one but he lost his way badly and finished the round on -2. The last thing I expected him to do was dust himself down and come out and shoot seven-under par today!”

It's been a good start for Steve in South Carolina and things aren't going too bad in Malaysia. Read the latest on the week's two golf tournaments here...

19:55 - April 13, 2012

For the record, I input a modest and ambitious back on Alvaro Quiros in the Malaysian Open market this morning, at [55.0]. I didn't quite get as much matched as I'd hoped for but he's onside too now.

15:00 - April 13, 2012

Things panned out pretty much as I'd hoped for this morning in Malaysia. Martin Kaymer didn't quite catch first round leader Charl Schwartzel but when the South African bogeyed the 1st hole they were level anyway, and Charl's day didn't get any better after that. He'd played 12 holes when the siren blew and play was suspended due to lightening. By then he was three-over for the day!

Playing with Charl, Louis Oosthuizen is two-under for the second round and he's now on -8, one in front of my man Kaymer, who shot five-under today, and one behind fellow South Africans Hennie Otto and Jbe Kruger, who, so far, is the comeback king of the week. Kruger looked to be sauntering along on day one, on -6 after just 11 holes, but he lost his way badly after that and he finished the round on -2. The last thing I expected him to do after that was dust himself down and come out and shoot seven-under par today!

Those that still need to complete round two will be back in the morning at 7.45 (0.45am UK time) and they could have their patience tested to the max if we get any further suspensions. I'm obviously happy with my position on Kaymer but I'm a little worried that we might not get all four rounds done. I quite fancy Kaymer if we get the full 72 holes in but that's no certainty at all. If we get a suspension tomorrow, a 54-hole tournament would have to be quite likely.

I've had a decent start at the RBC Heritage. Chad Campbell, backed at a very big price before the off, led alongside Vaughan Taylor and Colt Knost on -4 after round one and my big fancy, Jim Furyk, finished the day a shot back. They're off and running today and Chad's going the wrong but another big-priced wager, Robert Garrigus, is climbing the leaderboard.

The in-form Carl Pettersson (2nd at the Shell two weeks ago) is looming large and that's a bit frustrating. I've backed him in this a few times but left him out this time around. There's a very long way to go yet though.

I'd written in the preview about how the winners can come from off the pace here but I wouldn't be surprised if that doesn't happen this year now. The greens are playing very fast and they've tweaked the course a bit. I can't see it getting any easier on the weekend and low scores don't look likely. Having a grinder like Furyk in the mix might just be ideal.

13:50 - April 12, 2012

Although it's early days, given I've got involved in Malaysia, I thought I'd kick off the blog.

The RBC Heritage has only just kicked off so there's nothing to report there but they've already finished round one at the Maybank Malaysian Open and I've had an in-running play already.

My two pre-event picks have flopped and grabbing the headlines are South African friends Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen, who played together this morning. Schwartzel leads after an opening eight-under-par 64, and Louis, who shot two shots worse, is in a tie for 3rd. Jeev Milkha Singh is currently 2nd on -7 but I've backed someone much further down the list...

Although raindrops fell and storm clouds threatened, we didn't experience any delays today but that might not be the case tomorrow. Today's afternoon starters may look miles behind now but that may not be the case this time tomorrow and although it really doesn't look like it now, if the weather does close in tomorrow, today's late starters may have the advantage. Given the cream has risen to the top at this venue so far, I've spent the morning nibbling away at the classiest of those that that will be up and at 'um early tomorrow - Martin Kaymer, at odds of over [20.0].

Starting out six behind on -2, it will be his turn to play in the best of the conditions tomorrow and there's a strong chance that Schwartzel and co get delayed in the afternoon and that they'll need to come back early on Saturday to finish off.

There are a few ifs and buts there obviously but I fancy it's worth the risk. Hopefully I'll wake up in the morning to see Kaymer has at least caught Schwartzel and that he's nicely tucked away in his hotel watching the storms gather. We'll see.

Maybank Malaysian Open Pre-event Picks:
Bernd Wiesberger @ [140.0]
James Morrison @ [160.0]

In-Running Play
Martin Kaymer @ an average of [23.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [55.0]

RBC Heritage Pre-Event Picks:
Jim Furyk @ [20.0]
Zach Johnson @ an average of just over [50.0]
Brian Gay @ [100.0]
Mark Wilson @ [110.0]
George McNeil @ [180.0]
Robert Garrigus @ [180.0]
Chad Campbell @ [250.0]
Stephen Ames @ [280.0]
Time Herron @ an average of [340.0]

Our man takes a look at this week's US PGA Tour event, where he can see Jim Furyk contending again and where value picks are plentiful. Read Steve's preview here......

Steve takes a good look at this week's Race to Dubai event in Kuala Lumpur. Will another promising youngster take the title?...

Steve looks back on yet another fantastic Masters tournament. What lessons have we learnt for next year?...

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Michael Vaughan: England in the driving seat but plenty of hard work still to come

Test previews / Michael Vaughan / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Strauss contratulates Swann after taking another wicket but the spinner will have to do it all over again

"A lead of over 100 could be priceless on this track because the wicket is going to get worse. But scoring 400 is only part of the job because all the hard work will be wasted if they allow Sri Lanka to post a decent total to chase."

England have started their first innings extremely well and are in a good position to level the series. But they will have to bowl extremely well the second time round because they won't want to chase many on this wicket, says Michael Vaughan.

England are in a prime position to win this match, simple as that.

I've never really had any concerns about the bowling; you'll have read me in this column saying England have the best Test bowling attack in the world. It's not often anyone scores more than 300 in a Test match against this bowling attack these days. The problem in recent months is that England have seldom come anywhere near to scoring that themselves!

This time it looks like it's going to be a very different story. Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook went out with a good game-plan concerning the sort of run rate they were targeting and what they considered to be their scoring areas. Strauss will have been disappointed to not have gone on and scored 100 but him and Cook have set up a good platform and the middle-order will come in with runs already on the board which will be good for their confidence. The openers have set the tone and shown the others how to play on this pitch without taking risks. I'd be very surprised if England don't post at least 400 in the second innings, currently available at [1.65].

A lead of over 100 could be priceless on this track because the wicket is going to get worse. If they are still batting at the close of play tomorrow they'll be in control of the game.

But scoring 400 is only part of the job because all the hard work will be wasted if they allow Sri Lanka to post a decent total to chase. I'm not entirely sure how many England would want to chase because we can't be sure how the pitch will play on days four and five so England's bowling attack will have to bear that in mind and make the most of the chances that come their way.

Tim Bresnan bowled well, Graeme Swann got it to spin a lot and James Anderson was at his brilliant best once again. A repeat of that performance and they should have no excuses for winning this Test and squaring the series. Strauss will have to be mindful about not being overly cautious because this is a match they need to win, a draw is no good whatsoever. But unless there's heavy rain I can't see that we won't get a result and all things considered England are actually a big price at [1.85] given they're very much in the driving seat just now.

2 pts Back England to score more than 400 in the first innings @ [1.65]
1 pt Back England to win @ [1.85]

England had Sri Lanka in all sorts of trouble early on but failed to pick up the wicket of Mahela Jayawardene and so missed out on a great chance to dismiss the hosts cheaply. Don't bank on England to make...

Ed Hawkins, the Betting Writer of the Year, gives his exclusive verdict on the second Test between Sir Lanka and England, which starts on Tuesday...

Sri Lanka are 1-0 up and have already shown what a tough a side they are in their own conditions. Winning the toss will be crucial and puts the team batting first in pole position but the bet is that...

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Lefty still in the mix

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Mickelson - Bang there in Houston

“I’ve been closely monitoring my pre-event pick, Phil Mickelson, since he started playing today at 1.30pm and I’ve just about had enough for one day. It’s been worth the effort though.”

It's been a long day for the players in Houston and it's been a long day for Steve too, but has it been a good one?

22:05 - March 30, 2012

It's been a long, boring and tiring day spent almost entirely tied to the laptop but it's been worth the effort.

I started out this morning with three pre-event picks in fair positions after day one of the Sicily Open. Day two ended with precisely no pre-event picks in-contention. Not that I'm moaning. It just goes to show how fickle this game is. In stark contrast, after day one in Morocco last week I thought I was out of the game completely, yet Michael Hoey recovered from a seemingly impossible position to win the event - swings and roundabouts and all that.

We've reached halfway in Sicily now and I've just about conceded defeat, for now anyway. With six players tied for the lead on -8, seven a shot back in a tie for 7th and a full dozen sitting on -6, it's nigh on impossible and discretion looks likely to be the better part of valour - though I have had a couple of very small in-running wagers. I've had small win bets on both Garth Mulroy and Richard Green. Both players are amongst the group on -7.

At the Shell Houston Open I've been closely monitoring my pre-event pick, Phil Mickelson, since he started playing today at 1.30pm. He came back to finish off round one, which he did very well, and now he's finishing up round two and I've just about had enough for one day. It's been worth the effort though.

Lefty tied for the lead after round one and although, like me, he appears to be running out of steam for the day now, he's still right up there and I've managed to lay back my stake on him at an average of [3.80], which was pretty decent considering the lowest he's been matched at is [3.25], and for money of any sort of note, [3.45].

I've also added Louis Oosthuizen now, who's just hit the front on -11. At [10.5], I haven't got a great price considering I've been watching him move menacingly into the mix for the last couple of hours. I've sort of been hoping he'd go away but I eventually came to the conclusion he wasn't going to. Of course, he probably will now!

Play should go on until the small hours (UK time) but I'm going to call it a day now, I'm shattered. I'll have another look in the morning and see where I stand. Keep going Phil, even if I can't!

14.55 - March 30, 2012

Phil Mickelson is making a nice early move at the Shell Houston Open. He's now four-under par through eight holes and his price for next week's US Masters might just be about to go.

If you were intending to back Lefty for a fourth win at Augusta, now might be the time to do so.

12:05 - March 30, 2012

You really do have to laugh. Guess who bogeyed two holes straight after I'd written "Another of my picks, Scott Jamieson has just started out in round two on -4 and I'd like to think he can get involved (that's him jinxed then!) but we'll see."

11:55 - March 30, 2012

I'll start with events across the pond first, where play was suspended thanks to some pretty nasty weather. Thunder stopped play at around 1.30pm (7.30pm UK time) and flooded fairways following heavy rain prevented any further action.

Only one of my three picks managed to get finished and that was Stuart Appleby, who shot +2. Graham DeLaet has been most unlucky; he has to set his alarm to return to the track early, at 7.30am (1.30pm UK time) to negotiate a three foot par putt on the 9th, his final hole of round one. At least he's on a decent score though, should he tap that in, he'll be just two out of the lead - set jointly by Carl Pettersson and Angel Cabrera, who both shot -7.

My only other pick, Phil Mickelson, has only played three holes so far but at least he's under par having birdied the 1st. It's going to be a long day for those that started yesterday afternoon, or were due to. Nine groups haven't even started round one yet and a couple of groups have only just teed off.

There's a distinct possibility that those that have finished round one already, won't play at all today and they may have had a bit of a result. The organisers are going to be hard-pressed to get this finished on time now. With the US Masters starting on Thursday, the plan remains to get the event done and dusted by 5.00pm on Sunday so the players can get to Augusta in good time. They won't want anymore interruptions.

It's been a curious start to the Sicily Open where, with the wind switching and the weather warming, the afternoon starters shot an average of 1.3 strokes less than the morning guys on day one. Then, for much of this morning, playing in what appear benign conditions, nobody seems to be kicking on.

Day one ended with Peter Lawrie in front on -8, one ahead of Jamie Donaldson, Soren Kjeldsen and Tano Goya and as I write, the first of the morning starters are ending their rounds and the lead is still only -8.

The best of my picks so far is James Morrison, who was on -7 when the coverage ended last night before he bogeyed the last and then this morning, he's only level par for round two so far. That's more than a little disappointing but at least he traded short enough to reach the first lay-back target set in the Find Me a 100 Winner column. Albeit only just.

Another of my picks, Scott Jamieson has just started out in round two on -4 and I'd like to think he can get involved (that's him jinxed then!) but we'll see. It's going to be a busy day, so I'll probably post again at some point.

Sicilian Open Pre-Event Selections:
Tommy Fleetwood @ [70.0]
Scott Jamieson @ [70.0]
James Morrison @ [160.0]

In-Play bets
Richard Green @ [16.0]
Garth Mulroy @ [38.0]

Shell Houston Pre-Event Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [14.5]
Graham DeLaet @ [230.0]
Stuart Appleby @ [250.0]

In-Play bets
Layed Phil Mickelson @ [3.80]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [10.5]

Steve takes a look at this week's PGA Tour action from Texas, where he fancies Phil Mickelson could very well defend his title...

Our man takes a detailed looked at this week's Race to Dubai event, where there's a brand new venue to ponder. Who's going to be suited to the Kyle Philips designed Verdura Golf & Spa?...

Tiger Woods wins his first official PGA Tour event for 30 months, as he makes it a magnificent seven at Bay Hill. And it's been a good week for Steve too as his pre-event [85.0] pick, Michael Hoey, wins the...

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Golden Slipper: Waterhouse sextet still on course for Rosehill

News / Gary Crispe / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Gai Waterhouse will be busy on April 7

"Ridden from off the pace, No Looking Back found the line strongly under no pressure in her 1050m heat to be beaten only a head in 64.5 seconds..."

Gai Waterhouse remains hopeful of starting up to six two-year-olds in the $3.5 million Golden Slipper Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday week writes Timeform's man 'Down Under' Gary Crispe.

With just two qualifying races remaining for the world's richest two-year-old race Waterhouse has four of her imposing juvenile team safely in the top 18 and another three who will make last ditch bids to gain a start at Rosehill on Saturday.

Her Golden Slipper team is led by the unbeaten colt Pierro ([6.6] second favourite), who is ballot exempt after he added last Saturday's Todman Stakes to his previous wins in the Breeders Plate and Silver Slipper Stakes.

She also has No Looking Back, Driefontein and Raceway assured of starts.

No Looking Back, relegated to second on protest by stablemate Driefontein in the Magic Millions Classic in January and second to Melbourne star Samaready in the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield, is sixth on the current order of entry with $220,000 eligible prizemoney.

Driefointein is eighth with $198,000 and Raceway 10th on $127,000.

No Looking Back continued her Slipper preparation in a Randwick barrier trial on Monday morning when she was ridden by her Slipper jockey Craig Williams. Ridden from off the pace, No Looking Back found the line strongly under no pressure in her 1050m heat to be beaten only a head in 64.5 seconds, leaving Williams happy with her condition.

Waterhouse resisted the temptation to trial Driefontein and Raceway and they will go straight to the Slipper on Saturday week without another race.

However, Waterhouse will try to qualify another two more runners for the Golden Slipper in Saturday's final lead-up races, the Pago Pago Stakes and Magic Night Stakes, races that offer the winners ballot exemption.

She will start Pure Hustle against unbeaten boom colt All Too Hard (half-brother to Black caviar) in the Pago Pago while the fillies Valerio and Later Gator will contest the Magic Night Stakes.

Pure Hustle, an impressive winner on debut before disappointing when resuming at Randwick, is currently 34th on the order of entry while Black Opal Stakes third Later Gator is 36th.

Valerio, a bold second in the Sweet Embrace Stakes at Randwick on March 17, is outside the top 40.

Trainer Anthony Cummings has said that his three-year-old Strike The Stars will swerve the Doncaster Mile and instead head for the Rosehill Guineas on his way to the Australian Derby......

Last year's winner Sweet Lightning has been taken out of the Lincoln, in which 2010 victor Penitent will now carry top weight at Doncaster on Saturday......

Godolphin's Gamilati has undergone surgery to remove a chip from her near-fore ankle and may now be forced to miss the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6.......

Though the culmination of the all-weather season, it's difficult to see Winter Derby day at Lingfield as anything other than the beginning on the new Flat season given the quality of horses and the promising performances on show. David Johnson takes a look at them from the Timeform ratings perspective......

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Three trophies still up for grabs as Bayern Munich return to form

German Football / Michael Lintorn / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Arjen Robben scored a penalty-aided hat-trick at Hertha Berlin on Saturday

"Bayern Munich already showed at the start of this season, when winning ten straight games and keeping a dozen clean sheets, that once momentum is on their side, anything is possible."

After months of poor results, criticism of coach Jupp Heynckes, underperformance by stars and even a brief Mario Gomez goal drought, Bayern Munich are back.

And fittingly for a club who flit between brilliance and ineptitude, incapable of locating a middle ground, their revival has been more sudden and spectacular than anyone could have predicted, their last three matches won by an aggregate scoreline of 20-1. Naturally, they failed to score in three of the four prior to that.

The Bavarian giants already showed at the start of this season, when winning ten straight games and keeping a dozen clean sheets, that once momentum is on their side, anything is possible, so will hope that their recent resurgence is occurring with precision timing.

A first treble in their history remains a possibility, albeit an unlikely one given the run that reigning Bundesliga champions and current leaders Borussia Dortmund are on as they bid to become the first team besides Bayern to finish top twice in a row since they last did it in 1995-96.

Bayern's thrashings of Hoffenheim and Hertha Berlin saw the gap closed from seven to five points, but with just eight fixtures to play and Dortmund unbeaten in 20, they are [2.62] to dethrone Jurgen Klopp's ensemble, who look great value at [1.65].

The Champions League on the other hand feels very much obtainable at [7.4] following a quarter-final pairing with Marseille, who are somehow in the final eight despite a fairly calamitous campaign.

The 1992-93 winners are ninth in Ligue 1 and had lost six successive encounters in all competitions before perhaps their most undignified defeat yet on Tuesday away to third-tier relegation battlers Quevilly after extra-time in the Coupe de la France.

On that sort of form, it is arguably an even less complicated tie than Real Madrid's with APOEL, and that quartet are on a semi-final collision course, guaranteed to avoid Barcelona until the final.

For now though, Bayern's attention will be focussed on Wednesday's domestic cup semi-final away to Borussia Monchengladbach, who are third in the Bundesliga and did the double over their visitors.

Arjen Robben, who is in discussions about a new deal, has warned fans not to expect another dominant victory like the Hoffenheim and Hertha ones. Given their struggles against Gladbach this term, it might instead prove wise to lay them for 90-minute success at [1.76].

Currently five points clear of Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund face Werder Bremen this weekend. Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle....

Our Bundesliga expert Kevin Hatchard casts his eye over three of the division's bottom four this week, starting with a Kaiserslautern side looking for their first league win in five months....

Bayer Leverkusen were shredded by a Lionel Messi-inspired Barcelona in midweek, and Kevin Hatchard believes Wolfsburg may suffer a Bayer backlash this weekend....

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Man City v Porto: Plenty of work still to be done

Europa League / Jaymes Monte / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Porto can still cause City one or two problems.

"So long as they don’t concede more than one goal – something they have only done twice all season at home – then City will be through to the next round."

Although City are in an extremely strong position Jaymes Monte believes that there may still be some mileage in the tie...

Man City v Porto, KO: 1700 GMT, ESPN, Match Odds: Man City [1.67], Porto [6.2], The Draw [4.0]
Manchester City have one foot in the Europa League last 16 after Sergio Aguero's late strike gave The Citizens an unlikely win in the Estadio do Dragao last week. Porto will now need to become only the third away team to win at the Etihad Stadium since it was renamed as such if they are to remain on course to defend their Europa League crown.

City had gone behind in Portugal last Thursday but battled back through a deflected Yaya Toure cross then an 84th minute tap in from Aguero after good work again from Toure.

The Ivorian's return to the side is a massive boost to Roberto Mancini and City, and comes at an ideal time as Manchester United apply increasing pressure on the domestic front. The Premier League remains Mancini's priority but the Italian is keen to also make an impact in the Europa League, as was evidenced by his team selection last week.

Having not played at the weekend and a home game against Blackburn to come on Saturday there is no reason for Mancini to abandon those philosophies here, he also has the luxury of a fully fit squad and so we should expect a strong City side this midweek.

Porto, on the other hand, do have personnel problems as Alvaro Pereira is unavailable due to suspension and right-back Danilo misses out with a knee injury.

Match Odds
City are quite obviously in the driving seat in the tie, and odds of [1.09] on them progressing to the last-16 quite accurately reflect that. But this tie is far from over. Porto haven't lost a two-legged Europa League (or UEFA Cup) tie since the 2000/01 season; winning the trophy on the two occasions that they have been involved in the competition in the intermitting years.

That may not be enough to warrant backing them to overturn the deficit and qualify for the next round at [11.0], but it is enough to generate some interest in a lay of City at odds of [1.67]. I'm always wary of backing a team that don't need to win, and when odds-on prices are offered in such situations I feel almost obliged to lay them. There is no exception here.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The away goals rule ensures that Porto have to come to Manchester and attack. A 1-0 win would not be enough to see them progress; they must score twice in order to at least remain in the tie.

Whilst that should logically tip the betting in favour of a high-scoring game it is also worth considering the situation from a Manchester City perspective; so long as they don't concede more than one goal - something they have only done twice all season at home - then it is they who will be through to the next round.

Over 2.5 goals is a shade of odds-on at the [1.9] mark with Under 2.5 goals at [2.1]. The best option could be one for In-Play traders who can back the Unders selection pre-match then trade out for a guaranteed profit or a risk-free bet as the game progresses and Porto make the increasingly necessary advances.

To Score
Our Opta stats highlight, interestingly, that Yaya Toure is City's top scorer in Europe this season with three goals. As mentioned above, his return to the club is a timely boost and one that could drive the Citizens to honours later in the season.

Despite his scoring record in continental competition Toure still pops up at double-figure prices in the first goalscorer market, and an even more appealing [4.2] in the To Score market. It may not be one to pile into, but it certainly represents good value.

For the Portuguese side all attentions will be focussed on one man. Hulk has played a part (scored four and assisted two) in six of Porto's eight European goals this season, yet is still available at appealing prices in the goalscorer markets. The Brazilian is around [9.0] to break the deadlock and [3.75] to net at anytime.

Best Bet:
Back Under 2.5 goals @ [2.1], with a view to trade In-Play

Recommended Bets:
Lay Man City to beat Porto @ [1.67]
Back Yaya Toure to score @ [4.2]
Back Hulk to score @ [3.75]

The best prices were offered on Betfair on the match odds and correct score markets of all three Europa League games involving Premier League sides......

United almost certain to reach last 16 after comfortable win in Holland but City remain Europa League favourites after they come from behind in Portugal......

Michael Lintorn expects Manchester United to successfully negotiate the first hurdle of their Europa League adventure, returning with a clean sheet and a win......

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Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Dundalk still on Steps agenda

News / Timeform / 08 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jessica Harrington: Trainer of Steps To Freedom and Oscars Well.

"He'll run in Dundalk on Friday week in a mile-and-a-half race and he then may go to Leopardstown for a gallop after racing on March 4..."

Current Supreme Novices' Hurdle favourite Steps To Freedom remains on course to have a run on the Flat at Dundalk on Friday February 17...

Unbeaten in three starts over hurdles, Jessica Harrington's six-year-old has plenty going for him with the Festival in mind, not least that he is already a Cheltenham winner having struck there in November.

Harrington has given her exciting youngster, rated 144p by Timeform, a winter break since but he will soon be back in competitive action.

"He did a breeze on Friday and worked yesterday (Tuesday) and I'm very happy with him," the trainer told At The Races.

"He'll run in Dundalk on Friday week in a mile-and-a-half race and he then may go to Leopardstown for a gallop after racing on March 4. It depends how he comes out of the race in Dundalk.

"He was out in the field for six weeks and then we brought him back in and we've just been building him back up. He seems to be fresh and well.

"The great thing was we got him to Cheltenham in November and he travelled over well and he's got experience of the course now. So when he goes back there in March, he'll know where he is."

Steps To Freedom is currently trading as the [10.5] favourite for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Another major Festival hope for Harrington is Oscars Well, who bears a Timeform rating of 164, and would have gone very close to winning last season's Neptune Novices' Hurdle but for stumbling at the final flight.

His latest run behind Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion Hurdle was his best of the season and Harrington is hopeful her charge can get closer to the reigning champion granted better ground for the Champion Hurdle itself.

"He stepped up again and he's been improving all winter," Harrington added.

"He has a high cruising speed and I'm not saying he'll ever beat Hurricane Fly, but as I've said to the owners, with some reasonable luck we'll run into a place in the Champion Hurdle.

"I think he ticks all the boxes as he likes good ground, he seems to like Cheltenham and he loves races that are run at a fast pace.

"Hurricane Fly is a very good horse. He's probably one of the best hurdlers we've seen since Istabraq, if not better.

"He's won 10 Grade Ones now and that's an amazing record."

Oscars Well can presently be backed at [18.5] for the Champion Hurdle, with Hurricane Fly heading the market at [1.96].

The Roger Varian-trained Eton Forever features among 97 initial entries for the Lincoln at Doncaster on March 31......

Unbeaten champion Black Caviar will face eight rivals in Saturday's $400,000 C.F. Orr Stakes at Caulfield (due off 04:50 GMT) when she goes for her 18th straight victory and her eighth at Group 1 level......

With Saturday's card at Newbury at the mercy of the elements, Betfair have opened a market regarding whether racing will take place......

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Premier League 2011-12: Why United are still the only team to back

Premier League / James Eastham / 02 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Manchester United celebrate their title victory last May and remain the team to beat with 2011-12 fast approaching

"Arsenal fell away badly towards the end of last season and there is nothing that suggests they are any better-equipped this time to end a title-free run now stretching back to 2004. Gervinho is a smart signing, but an isolated case at the moment, and the chances of captain Cesc Fabregas leaving before the transfer window closes seem larger than 50-50. At [10.5], they’re too big to lay, but there is no reason to back them."

As the Premier League season prepares to kick-off, James Eastham casts his eye over the leading contenders for the crown and tells you where to put your money.

The term 'Big Four' in describing the Premier League's top teams has become so ubiquitous you read it untranslated in foreign newspapers, but after being morphed by Manchester City's spending when they replaced Liverpool in English football's most exclusive club, it now no longer applies at all.

Going into the new season, six teams rank ahead of the rest: the original 'Big Four' of Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool, plus City, and Tottenham, who forced entry by qualifying for the Champions League 15 months ago. But do all these sides stand a chance of winning the Premier League title?

The short answer is no. Spurs finished fifth last season, 18pts behind winners Manchester United, and a quick glance at their transfer activity suggests they'll be no stronger when the new season kicks-off on August 13. They may even be weaker, too - Luka Modric remains the subject of interest from other clubs - and although their absence from the Champions League means Harry Redknapp's side ought to be more focused no domestic matters during the autumn period, Tottenham look more like top-four than title challengers.

The same applies to Arsenal. They fell away badly towards the end of last season and there is nothing that suggests they are any better-equipped to end a title-free run stretching back to 2004. Gervinho is a smart signing, but an isolated case at the moment, and the chances of captain Cesc Fabregas leaving before the transfer window closes seem larger than 50-50. At [10.5], the Gunners are too big to lay, but there is no reason to back them. Where you ought to consider laying Arsenal is in the Top 4 Finish market. Arsene Wenger has guided his side to a top-four finish in every season since he arrived at the club 15 years ago, but that proud record has never been under greater threat.

Liverpool are the most difficult to side to judge. After a summer of heavy spending (Stewart Downing, Jordan Henderson and Charlie Adam cost £45m in total) the squad has better depth and balance, and in Luis Suarez not only a burgeoning Anfield folk hero but also a potential player of the year. If Liverpool were to sustain the points-per-game tally they managed during half a season under Dalglish over the course of an entire campaign they would be serious challengers. A tall order, but they will attract plenty of takers at [12.5].

Chelsea's biggest summer signing so far is manager Andre Villas Boas, who is hoping to breathe new life into a squad that initially looked tired last season under Carlo Ancelotti before mounting a remarkable comeback during the second-half of the campaign. Despite the new boss' superb record at FC Porto, he inherits a squad that lacks quality in certain areas, and will somehow have to find a way to revive Fernando Torres' flagging career (although the Spaniard is [10.0] second favourite in the Top Goalscorer category). At [3.8], I'd leave Chelsea alone.

Which brings us to Manchester City. Tenth in 2008-09 (50pts), fifth in 2009-10 (67pts) and third last season (71pts), their progress may have been slower than their owners would have liked, but it's also undeniable. The question is whether City have the squad and dressing-room unity to bridge the nine-point gap that separated them from neighbours United in last season's final standings. Following the arrival of Sergio Aguero - like Suarez, a player of the year contender - and given the fact the squad has remained fairly stable over the summer, I don't expect City to fall any further behind United, but I'd want larger odds than [4.9] on them actually winning the title before investing in them.

All of which suggests defending champions Manchester United remain the smartest bet in the market. The indefatigable ambition of the likes of Wayne Rooney and Rio Ferdinand will set an example to the others, Javier Hernandez ([10.5] third favourite in the Top Goalscorer market) has the potential to surpass last season's tally of 13 goals and the capacity for improvement in a squad containing outstanding young players such as Chris Smalling and Phil Jones is obvious. The biggest question mark is how well and how quickly David De Gea will settle as replacement for the now-retired Edwin van der Sar, but even accounting for this temporary issue, United's combination of power, strength, skill, experience, know-how and, not least, the drive to succeed that the manager has instilled in scores of players over 25 years set United ahead of the rest.

Best Bet: Manchester United to win the Premier League @ [2.9].
Other Recommended Bet: Lay Arsenal in Top 4 Finish @ [1.85].

Having shown late on last season that their depiction as Tevez FC does a disservice to many in the squad, Michael Lintorn feels that a title push is a realistic target even if he leaves......

West Brom haven't lasted more than two successive years in the top tier since 1985, but Roy Hodgson has the ability to buck that trend....

If you believe the media, then Harry Redknapp is a shoo-in to become the next England manager. Dan 'The Betting Man' Fitch disagrees and thinks that Roy Hodgson could eclipse Harry's achievements this season....

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Golf News: Tiger bets are still worth bagging

General / Ralph Ellis / 21 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wililams and Woods in happier times

"Williams may be off the Woods bag now, but somebody else will pick it up and start collecting those ten per cents."

Tiger Woods has parted company with his long serving (suffering?) caddy but, as Ralph Ellis explains, it's still too early to write off the former-world number one.

Quiz question: Name New Zealand's most successful sportsman. Maybe it would be Richie McCaw or Mils Muliaina who both have 94 caps for the All Blacks? Then again Jonah Lomu would have to be the most iconic rugby player from the Islands. In cricket Richard Hadlee probably comes top of the list.

Wrong all round. The Kiwi who's made the most money from sport is a golfer who has never swung a club in anger at a major competition. Steve Williams has picked up a fortune out of caddying for Tiger Woods - estimated at around £20million as his take from 10 per cent of the former world number one's prize money.

No more. Woods has just ditched the man who carried his bag for 13 of 14 Major wins. It's a split that's been on the cards since Williams, whose wife was close friends with Tiger's ex Elin, made comments last year about his boss's personal life as his world was unravelling.

Williams will now go full time with Australian Adam Scott, for whom he worked at the US Open and The Open. Meanwhile the top caddies are already lining up to see who gets the gig to replace him. Dustin Johnson's caddie Joe LaCava is thought to be the man Woods wants, although ironically the other name in the frame is Scott's former bagman Moline Navarro.

At Sandwich, Scott was full of enthusiasm for the contribution he thought Williams could make. After two days, when the Aussie was one under and in contention, he was telling we reporters: "Steve's got experience and if he can say the right word here, or pick the right club there, it could make all the difference." Sadly it didn't, as he finished up tied 25th and seven over. The conclusion is that however good a caddie Williams was for all those years, it was Tiger's golf that really made the difference!

Betfair's market doesn't fancy their chances at the USPGA either - Scott is an outsider at [70.0]. So the big question remains when Tiger will return and just how good he'll be when that happens. He is now as short as [1.02] in the Specials market to go another year without winning his 15th Major and the people who backed that back in January at even money are sitting pretty.

I'm not sure that even if Woods does return to play in the USPGA he'll be ready to win. But I do fancy laying him to finish the year without a PGA Tour victory at as low as [1.3]. Now down to 20 in the latest world rankings, there's so much pride at stake for him, and the man who will make the biggest difference to Tiger is not his caddy, but his coach Sean Foley who has been remodelling his swing to put less stress on his knees. Foley's been doing that for nearly a year now, and according to his other current star pupil Justin Rose that's about the amount of time it takes for swing changes to take effect.

Williams may be off the Woods bag now, but somebody else will pick it up and start collecting those ten per cents. There could yet be more big money to be earned.

Five things you might not know about Adam Scott

1. Born July 1980 in Adelaide, dad Phil was an ex pro golfer whose career was spoiled by a motorcycle accident when he was 19. He then ran a company called Mascot golf that manufactured wooden drivers, fairway woods and putters.

2. Mum was also a single figure handicap golfer, so Adam got the bug. He was 13 the first time he beat his dad by scoring under 70 at their local club.

3. Greg Norman helped mentor his early career and advised him to play the European Tour before going to America. He lived in London for seven years and developed a passion for architecture and design. Sir Norman Foster is his favourite.

4. Voted in the top five for a magazine poll to find the "sexiest male golfer", he has dated Ana Ivanovic since splitting with long time girlfriend Marie Kojzar and Maria Sharapova has said she has fantasies about him

5. He's got homes on Australia's Gold Coast and in Crans sur Sierre in Switzerland where he's neighbours with Sergio Garcia - although he says they've never both been there on the same day.

We may have seen some recent shocks at the Majors but the Senior British Open tends to be dominated by the game's elder leading lights. Paul Krishnamurty weighs up a stellar field for this week's event....

Ralph Ellis explains why the likes of Lee Westwood will have to put up with questions about his world ranking until he wins at least one Major....

Mr Woods has shown that golf is still his no.1 priority but while he searches for his A-game, Westwood, Donald et al are the best bets for major glory...

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Out Of The Main Event, But Still Grinding

Articles / John Tabatabai / 13 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

John in action during Day 2

So yesterday was Day 2 of the Main Event and it sadly didn't go how I predicted earlier in the day. I thought I was going to finish the dinner break with 160,000 but I finished up with 160,000 less than that because I busted just before the dinner break, which is kind of tilting.

To be honest the whole day sucked. I had a really good table but I just couldn't get anything to work. I managed to run ace-king into kings button versus blind and then queens into aces, again button versus blind. The whole day was like I was up against a brick wall. Then right at the end I got my last chips in with ace-nine against ace-two of clubs and the flop came club, club, club, obviously so that was a good game.

After I busted I went to relax a little bit and went to the Venetian to play some cash and it was the complete opposite of the Main Event! Every hand that I played, even if it was ten-three of diamonds, I just hit so I did OK there. The plan now is to play in the $5k Main Event at the Venetian, which I am looking forward to because I think it'll be a really good structure. I mean, if you're not in the Main Event what else are you going to do? You have to keep playing, right?!

I'm going to spend the next couple of days focussing on poker, I want to play a few more tournaments, get a good result in the $5k and then it is back to clubbing and partying again! Before I go I want to give a shout out to the six remaining Betfair Poker players who have made it to Day 3, which starts at noon on Thursday. Good luck to those and all my friends still in.

Betfair Poker players through to Day 3

David "DoinGodsWork" Lawrence: 103,100
Thomas "Nunchok" Pedersen: 102,100
George "PauloPavlou" McDonald: 50,800
Elizabeth Hille: 51,100
Daniel "Readbook4u" Carlsson: 42,800
Mark "Goosey82" Shanta: 29,100

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Just a quick update today because it is 1150, Day 2a of the World Series of Poker Main Event starts at 1200 and I am at least 20 minutes away from The Rio! I played on Day 1c, which is...

It has been quite a profitable couple of days in Vegas after I chopped the "really easy" $200 rebuy tournament at the Wynn, which I mentioned in my previous blog entry, for $16,500. What made the victory all the more...

Yesterday I played in Event#56 of the World Series of Poker but unfortunately busted out on the very last hand before the dinner break meaning I am now sitting here eating fried chicken wings and soured cream, which is just brilliant.

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Lehavot Wins But Brits Still Shine

World Series of Poker 2011 / Matthew Pitt / 06 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

The first $10,000 Championship of the 2011 World Series of Poker is done and dusted and it is Amir Lehavot who has emerged victorious to win his first bracelet and $573,456 but the tournament will also be remembered for the fact another three British players went deep and another bracelet for one of our boys cannot be far away.

This year's $10,000 Pot-Limit Hold'em Championship attracted 249 players, slightly down on the 268 of last year but still enough to create a prizepool of $2,340,600. Of the 249 who started Day 1 with high hopes only 129 survived the day with their chip stacks intact and they returned to the felt on Sunday and were whittled down to the final 27 players, which incidentally is how many players were paid out.

The final 27 was a star-studded affair with the likes of Mike "The Mouth" Matusow, Owen Crowe, Nenad Medic, McLean Karr and Steve "gboro780" Gross. However, as in the $25,000 Heads Up event that Jake Cody won a huge crowd gathered on the rail once word spread that Toby Lewis, Chris Moorman and Stephen Chidwick had made it into the money and were in with a real chance of winning a coveted gold bracelet.

Moorman was the first British player to be sent to the rail, his 18th place finish worth $25,348 and then five and a half hours after the tournament started Lewis' luck ran out. The EPT Vilamoura winner opened to 43,000 from the button, Lehavot made it 110,000 to play from the big blind and then called when Lewis re-raised all in. The Brit's JhJc was narrowly ahead of his opponent's AdQd but he was soon a massive underdog as the flop came down 4d-9d-2d giving Lehavot the nut flush. The 6c on the turn ended Lewis' tournament and when the meaningless 3c arrived on the river Lewis was eliminated in 11th place, worth $40,890.

This left Chidwick as the lone British player left in the tournament and when Michael Benvenuti, Karr and Eric Cloutier all busted out with 15 minutes of each other, Chidwick only had five more players to outlast to scoop the title. Those five became four as Nicolas Levi, a Frenchman who resides in the UK exited in sixth place when his 7d7h was beaten by the AsQd of Lehavot and just five minutes later Tommy Vinas ran into a real cooler of a hand to see him eliminated in fifth place. Vinas got into a raising war with Jarred Solomon on a 9s-Qs-7s flop which resulted in the former being all in at risk. He proudly turned over 7c7d for bottom set but was devastated when Solomon turned over 9c9d for a higher set. The turn and river were the 8h and 8c respectively and play was now four-handed.

The support for Chidwick was second to none but it was not enough as the man known as "Stevie444" in online circles was eliminated in fourth place> He managed to get his money in good with Ah9c against the KcJh of Lehavot but Lehavot was running hotter than the sun that even when the flop came down 9d-Ac-Ts the rail knew a suckout could be on the cards. The turn was the 8h, which kept Chidwick in front but gave Lehavot an open-ended straight draw, and that was completed when the Qs landed on the river. A valiant performance from Chidwick who took away $198,927 for his efforts over the three days, nice work if you can get it.

Five minutes later and the tournament reached the heads up stages as Sam Stein ran his As6d straight down the throat of the AcKs of, yes you guessed it, Lehavot. Neither player made a pair but Lehavot's king-kicker came into play and it was time for a one-on-one encounter to decide the title. Lehavot lead Solomon by 5,415,000 to 2,160,000 and it did not take him long to reduce his opponent to just a few hundred thousand chips. Then about an hour and 20 minutes into the encounter the final hand took place.

With blinds now 25,000/50,000 (there are no antes in pot limit games) Solomon made it 100,000 to play. Lehavot re-popped the action to 265,000 then quickly called as Solomon put in the rest of his stack. Solomon's AhJs would usuall be a very strong hand in heads up but not when his opponent held AsQh! The Qs-Qd-Tc flop gave Lehavot trip queens but also gave Solomon an open-ended straight but any hopes of hitting that were soon made redundant as the Td on the turn improved Lehavot to an unbeatable full house, so when the meaningless 2d hit the river it was already game over, Lehavot had become the $10,000 Pot-Limit Hold'em Championship winner.

This is the second large cash in just a few months for Lehavot as he finished fourth in the recent WPT LA Poker Classic for a cool $421,680, meaning this latest score has made him a poker millionaire!

Final table payouts

1st: Amir Lehavot: $573,456
2nd: Jarred Solomon: $354,460
3rd: Sam Stein: $264,651
4th: Stephen Chidwick: $198,927
5th: Tommy Vinas: $150,453
6th: Nicolas Levi: $114,525

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Derby Betting: Frankel unlikely, but Cecil still has favourite in World Domination

Events / Timeform / 03 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Newbury winner World Domination is favourite for the Derby

"Frankel is, however, an intended runner in the St James’s Palace."

The Henry Cecil-trained World Domination has emerged as the new favourite for the Derby on June 4 after it was announced that the 2000 Guineas winner Frankel would not run in the Epsom Classic...

The 2000 Guineas winner, Frankel, rated 142 by Timeform after his blistering Newmarket success, is out to [27.0] in Betfair's Epsom Derby market, while his stable-companion World Domination (who reportedly suffered a very minor setback) heads the betting at [5.8].

There are severe doubts about Frankel's stamina for a mile and a half on the back of his Newmarket win, prompting a rethink, but World Domination, a most impressive winner of an eleven furlong Newbury maiden on his sole start last month, for which he earned a Timeform rating of 100P, seems sure to relish the longer trip, with both his pedigree and manner of victory pointing in that direction.

Frankel is, however, an intended runner in the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot next month, and currently trades as short as [1.3].

Read the thoughts of Michael Bell on the chances of his horses at Newmarket, Goodwood, Thirsk and Sha Tin....

In his first-ever column on betting.betfair Brian talks us through the merits of his weekend runners at Newmarket and Salisbury....

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The Great England Debate! Should Wilshere still play with the kids?

Internationals / Ralph Ellis / 28 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jack Wilshere has shown that English talent can rise through the Arsenal ranks but his strong displays in the national team colours mean that he's in demand - for both Fabio Capello and Stuart Pearce

There's always been a bit of a myth that Arsene Wenger didn't allow English players to roll off the end of his production line of young talent. A succession of promising kids have gone away from first Highbury, and then the Emirates, over the years grumbling that they never got a chance.

Many of them were a tad bitter about it too, claiming that Wenger favoured the boys who'd been brought into Arsenal's academy from Africa or France above those who came from Islington or Essex. But the truth was that while many of them went on to make decent careers elsewhere - the likes of Steve Sidwell or Matthew Upson - you're struggling to name anybody who hit the real heights at another big club after Arsenal let them go.

Wenger's rule has always been that the ones who make it to his first team get there on the basis of talent, and more particularly the hard work to apply that talent, than what's stamped on their passports. And now finally comes proof of his claim with the emergence of Jack Wilshere.

In a dull 90 minutes as England cruised to a 2-0 win over Wales at Cardiff on Saturday, Wilshere was England's shining light. Until now Michael Owen at the 1998 World Cup and Wayne Rooney at Euro 2004 were the two best examples of a teenager stepping straight onto the international stage and looking completely at home. Arsenal's 19-year-old midfield prodigy goes straight into that category.

Clearly his response to the difficulties of breaking through the ranks of other talented teenagers at The Emirates has not been to moan about the competition, but to embrace it as a challenge to rise to. The result is England's most promising midfield prospect since Steven Gerrard first fought his way through Liverpool's ranks.

The better news is the work ethic is still there. Wenger might want him to take the summer off, but Wilshere has warned this morning that if he's picked for the European Under 21 Championships he wants to play.

"It is international football and I want to play in any international football. It's up to Stuart Pearce and Fabio Capello," he says.

Significantly he's leaving out the name of his club manager in those who will be responsible for the decision.

Sadly it looks like Wilshere won't play for England again in tomorrow night's friendly against Ghana, as Capello goes down the Sven Goran-Eriksson route of appeasing the clubs. He's already sent home the stars who are still involved in the Champions League (nice to know John Terry was so passionate about becoming captain again that he didn't want to stay and play). And the likely reserve side that will face the World Cup quarter-finalists, who won 3-0 in an African Nations Cup tie in Congo yesterday, makes the idea of laying England at [1.7] for the Wembley friendly extremely tempting.

My Betting.Betfair colleague Richard Aikman wrote an excellent piece yesterday about the death of international football, and this weekend didn't offer many reasons to argue with him. Wilshere's progress was one of the bright spots, as was the performance of Aaron Ramsey in his first game as captain of Wales. They will clearly both be important if Gunners are to get back into the Premier League title race in which their price has slipped to [4.3].

I also thought that Charlie Adam didn't look so very out of place in Scotland's 2-0 defeat against Brazil. And given that David Vaughan made an impact as a sub for Wales, there's encouragement to lay Blackpool at their current relegation price of [2.24].

Coventry goalkeeper Keiren Westwood was another who brought some brightness with a smashing display that helped secure a 2-1 Saturday night win over Macedonia to keep Giovanni Trapattoni's team in with a chance of qualifying. Level on ten points with Russia and Slovakia after five games, they are [4.1] to win the group, and [2.5] to qualify for the finals.

Westwood, let go by both Manchester United and Manchester City as a boy, was filling out the forms to become a policeman before Carlisle gave him a route back into the game. He's another good example of how there are chances for anybody to hit the big time, if you're only willing to do the work to take them.

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