Follow The Money: International makes plenty of appeal at Ffos Las

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Lay Super Duty @ 3.613/5 15:20 Wetherby
Back Kaylis Aramis @ 6.25/1 15:45 Ffos Las
Back Internationalapeal @ 2.962/1 16:50 Ffos Las

Today's movers come from the meetings at Ffos Las and Wetherby...

We start at Wetherby where Super Duty continues to prove easy to back in the 3m1f Novice Chase at 15:20, currently available at 3.613/5 having been 2.942/1 this morning. This Donald McCain-trained runner showed good form over hurdles last season, including when finishing second behind Simonsig at Aintree, and got off the mark over fences last time out at Cheltenham in testing conditions similar to those he will face today. However there is a feeling the seven-year-old prefers better ground and he also has to prove his stamina stepping up half a mile in trip, whilst it's also said he may improve for the run. With his rivals including the interesting chasing debutant Goulanes and the hat-trick seeking Fourjacks, the drift gives cause to take him on today.

We move to Ffos Las for our next selection where there has been notable support for Kaylis Aramis in the 2m4f Handicap Hurdle at 15:45, now trading at 6.25/1 from an early 11.010/1. The six-year-old has yet to get his head in front in seven career starts, three over hurdles this season, but posted an improved display last time out when looking the winner before failing to find anything in the finish. That run was over 3m and the drop in trip should suit today, whilst a 2lb rise in the weights after his handicap debut looks fair enough. With form in the heavy conditions, the move suggests he can lose his maiden status here.

We go back to the Welsh venue for our final piece of advice where the price of Internationalapeal has continued to contract in the Bumper at 16:50, now on offer to back at 2.962/1 from 4.3100/30. The five-year-old finished a three and a quarter length-second on his debut under rules at Chepstow in early January, encountering the heavy ground he will again face today, the form of which is yet to be proven. However that was a seemingly encouraging run and trainer Rebecca Curtis is a force in this sphere and won with her most recent runner at Cheltenham last Saturday, whilst also having an impressive 41% strike rate when teaming up with champion jockey Tony McCoy. With main market rival Heath Hunter weak in the market the gamble suggests those stats can improve further.

Recommended Bets

Lay Super Duty @ 3.613/5 15:20 Wetherby
Back Kaylis Aramis @ 6.25/1 15:45 Ffos Las
Back Internationalapeal @ 2.962/1 16:50 Ffos Las

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Michael Vaughan: England in the driving seat but plenty of hard work still to come

Test previews / Michael Vaughan / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Strauss contratulates Swann after taking another wicket but the spinner will have to do it all over again

"A lead of over 100 could be priceless on this track because the wicket is going to get worse. But scoring 400 is only part of the job because all the hard work will be wasted if they allow Sri Lanka to post a decent total to chase."

England have started their first innings extremely well and are in a good position to level the series. But they will have to bowl extremely well the second time round because they won't want to chase many on this wicket, says Michael Vaughan.

England are in a prime position to win this match, simple as that.

I've never really had any concerns about the bowling; you'll have read me in this column saying England have the best Test bowling attack in the world. It's not often anyone scores more than 300 in a Test match against this bowling attack these days. The problem in recent months is that England have seldom come anywhere near to scoring that themselves!

This time it looks like it's going to be a very different story. Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook went out with a good game-plan concerning the sort of run rate they were targeting and what they considered to be their scoring areas. Strauss will have been disappointed to not have gone on and scored 100 but him and Cook have set up a good platform and the middle-order will come in with runs already on the board which will be good for their confidence. The openers have set the tone and shown the others how to play on this pitch without taking risks. I'd be very surprised if England don't post at least 400 in the second innings, currently available at [1.65].

A lead of over 100 could be priceless on this track because the wicket is going to get worse. If they are still batting at the close of play tomorrow they'll be in control of the game.

But scoring 400 is only part of the job because all the hard work will be wasted if they allow Sri Lanka to post a decent total to chase. I'm not entirely sure how many England would want to chase because we can't be sure how the pitch will play on days four and five so England's bowling attack will have to bear that in mind and make the most of the chances that come their way.

Tim Bresnan bowled well, Graeme Swann got it to spin a lot and James Anderson was at his brilliant best once again. A repeat of that performance and they should have no excuses for winning this Test and squaring the series. Strauss will have to be mindful about not being overly cautious because this is a match they need to win, a draw is no good whatsoever. But unless there's heavy rain I can't see that we won't get a result and all things considered England are actually a big price at [1.85] given they're very much in the driving seat just now.

2 pts Back England to score more than 400 in the first innings @ [1.65]
1 pt Back England to win @ [1.85]

England had Sri Lanka in all sorts of trouble early on but failed to pick up the wicket of Mahela Jayawardene and so missed out on a great chance to dismiss the hosts cheaply. Don't bank on England to make...

Ed Hawkins, the Betting Writer of the Year, gives his exclusive verdict on the second Test between Sir Lanka and England, which starts on Tuesday...

Sri Lanka are 1-0 up and have already shown what a tough a side they are in their own conditions. Winning the toss will be crucial and puts the team batting first in pole position but the bet is that...

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Man City v Porto: Plenty of work still to be done

Europa League / Jaymes Monte / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Porto can still cause City one or two problems.

"So long as they don’t concede more than one goal – something they have only done twice all season at home – then City will be through to the next round."

Although City are in an extremely strong position Jaymes Monte believes that there may still be some mileage in the tie...

Man City v Porto, KO: 1700 GMT, ESPN, Match Odds: Man City [1.67], Porto [6.2], The Draw [4.0]
Manchester City have one foot in the Europa League last 16 after Sergio Aguero's late strike gave The Citizens an unlikely win in the Estadio do Dragao last week. Porto will now need to become only the third away team to win at the Etihad Stadium since it was renamed as such if they are to remain on course to defend their Europa League crown.

City had gone behind in Portugal last Thursday but battled back through a deflected Yaya Toure cross then an 84th minute tap in from Aguero after good work again from Toure.

The Ivorian's return to the side is a massive boost to Roberto Mancini and City, and comes at an ideal time as Manchester United apply increasing pressure on the domestic front. The Premier League remains Mancini's priority but the Italian is keen to also make an impact in the Europa League, as was evidenced by his team selection last week.

Having not played at the weekend and a home game against Blackburn to come on Saturday there is no reason for Mancini to abandon those philosophies here, he also has the luxury of a fully fit squad and so we should expect a strong City side this midweek.

Porto, on the other hand, do have personnel problems as Alvaro Pereira is unavailable due to suspension and right-back Danilo misses out with a knee injury.

Match Odds
City are quite obviously in the driving seat in the tie, and odds of [1.09] on them progressing to the last-16 quite accurately reflect that. But this tie is far from over. Porto haven't lost a two-legged Europa League (or UEFA Cup) tie since the 2000/01 season; winning the trophy on the two occasions that they have been involved in the competition in the intermitting years.

That may not be enough to warrant backing them to overturn the deficit and qualify for the next round at [11.0], but it is enough to generate some interest in a lay of City at odds of [1.67]. I'm always wary of backing a team that don't need to win, and when odds-on prices are offered in such situations I feel almost obliged to lay them. There is no exception here.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The away goals rule ensures that Porto have to come to Manchester and attack. A 1-0 win would not be enough to see them progress; they must score twice in order to at least remain in the tie.

Whilst that should logically tip the betting in favour of a high-scoring game it is also worth considering the situation from a Manchester City perspective; so long as they don't concede more than one goal - something they have only done twice all season at home - then it is they who will be through to the next round.

Over 2.5 goals is a shade of odds-on at the [1.9] mark with Under 2.5 goals at [2.1]. The best option could be one for In-Play traders who can back the Unders selection pre-match then trade out for a guaranteed profit or a risk-free bet as the game progresses and Porto make the increasingly necessary advances.

To Score
Our Opta stats highlight, interestingly, that Yaya Toure is City's top scorer in Europe this season with three goals. As mentioned above, his return to the club is a timely boost and one that could drive the Citizens to honours later in the season.

Despite his scoring record in continental competition Toure still pops up at double-figure prices in the first goalscorer market, and an even more appealing [4.2] in the To Score market. It may not be one to pile into, but it certainly represents good value.

For the Portuguese side all attentions will be focussed on one man. Hulk has played a part (scored four and assisted two) in six of Porto's eight European goals this season, yet is still available at appealing prices in the goalscorer markets. The Brazilian is around [9.0] to break the deadlock and [3.75] to net at anytime.

Best Bet:
Back Under 2.5 goals @ [2.1], with a view to trade In-Play

Recommended Bets:
Lay Man City to beat Porto @ [1.67]
Back Yaya Toure to score @ [4.2]
Back Hulk to score @ [3.75]

The best prices were offered on Betfair on the match odds and correct score markets of all three Europa League games involving Premier League sides......

United almost certain to reach last 16 after comfortable win in Holland but City remain Europa League favourites after they come from behind in Portugal......

Michael Lintorn expects Manchester United to successfully negotiate the first hurdle of their Europa League adventure, returning with a clean sheet and a win......

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Nicholls: Cheltenham's gone but there's plenty of racing to come

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