The Punter's In-Play Blog: Kaymer still playing catch up

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jbe Kruger, sharing the lead in Malaysia after a strong comeback

“Kruger looked to be sauntering along on day one but he lost his way badly and finished the round on -2. The last thing I expected him to do was dust himself down and come out and shoot seven-under par today!”

It's been a good start for Steve in South Carolina and things aren't going too bad in Malaysia. Read the latest on the week's two golf tournaments here...

19:55 - April 13, 2012

For the record, I input a modest and ambitious back on Alvaro Quiros in the Malaysian Open market this morning, at [55.0]. I didn't quite get as much matched as I'd hoped for but he's onside too now.

15:00 - April 13, 2012

Things panned out pretty much as I'd hoped for this morning in Malaysia. Martin Kaymer didn't quite catch first round leader Charl Schwartzel but when the South African bogeyed the 1st hole they were level anyway, and Charl's day didn't get any better after that. He'd played 12 holes when the siren blew and play was suspended due to lightening. By then he was three-over for the day!

Playing with Charl, Louis Oosthuizen is two-under for the second round and he's now on -8, one in front of my man Kaymer, who shot five-under today, and one behind fellow South Africans Hennie Otto and Jbe Kruger, who, so far, is the comeback king of the week. Kruger looked to be sauntering along on day one, on -6 after just 11 holes, but he lost his way badly after that and he finished the round on -2. The last thing I expected him to do after that was dust himself down and come out and shoot seven-under par today!

Those that still need to complete round two will be back in the morning at 7.45 (0.45am UK time) and they could have their patience tested to the max if we get any further suspensions. I'm obviously happy with my position on Kaymer but I'm a little worried that we might not get all four rounds done. I quite fancy Kaymer if we get the full 72 holes in but that's no certainty at all. If we get a suspension tomorrow, a 54-hole tournament would have to be quite likely.

I've had a decent start at the RBC Heritage. Chad Campbell, backed at a very big price before the off, led alongside Vaughan Taylor and Colt Knost on -4 after round one and my big fancy, Jim Furyk, finished the day a shot back. They're off and running today and Chad's going the wrong but another big-priced wager, Robert Garrigus, is climbing the leaderboard.

The in-form Carl Pettersson (2nd at the Shell two weeks ago) is looming large and that's a bit frustrating. I've backed him in this a few times but left him out this time around. There's a very long way to go yet though.

I'd written in the preview about how the winners can come from off the pace here but I wouldn't be surprised if that doesn't happen this year now. The greens are playing very fast and they've tweaked the course a bit. I can't see it getting any easier on the weekend and low scores don't look likely. Having a grinder like Furyk in the mix might just be ideal.

13:50 - April 12, 2012

Although it's early days, given I've got involved in Malaysia, I thought I'd kick off the blog.

The RBC Heritage has only just kicked off so there's nothing to report there but they've already finished round one at the Maybank Malaysian Open and I've had an in-running play already.

My two pre-event picks have flopped and grabbing the headlines are South African friends Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen, who played together this morning. Schwartzel leads after an opening eight-under-par 64, and Louis, who shot two shots worse, is in a tie for 3rd. Jeev Milkha Singh is currently 2nd on -7 but I've backed someone much further down the list...

Although raindrops fell and storm clouds threatened, we didn't experience any delays today but that might not be the case tomorrow. Today's afternoon starters may look miles behind now but that may not be the case this time tomorrow and although it really doesn't look like it now, if the weather does close in tomorrow, today's late starters may have the advantage. Given the cream has risen to the top at this venue so far, I've spent the morning nibbling away at the classiest of those that that will be up and at 'um early tomorrow - Martin Kaymer, at odds of over [20.0].

Starting out six behind on -2, it will be his turn to play in the best of the conditions tomorrow and there's a strong chance that Schwartzel and co get delayed in the afternoon and that they'll need to come back early on Saturday to finish off.

There are a few ifs and buts there obviously but I fancy it's worth the risk. Hopefully I'll wake up in the morning to see Kaymer has at least caught Schwartzel and that he's nicely tucked away in his hotel watching the storms gather. We'll see.

Maybank Malaysian Open Pre-event Picks:
Bernd Wiesberger @ [140.0]
James Morrison @ [160.0]

In-Running Play
Martin Kaymer @ an average of [23.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [55.0]

RBC Heritage Pre-Event Picks:
Jim Furyk @ [20.0]
Zach Johnson @ an average of just over [50.0]
Brian Gay @ [100.0]
Mark Wilson @ [110.0]
George McNeil @ [180.0]
Robert Garrigus @ [180.0]
Chad Campbell @ [250.0]
Stephen Ames @ [280.0]
Time Herron @ an average of [340.0]

Our man takes a look at this week's US PGA Tour event, where he can see Jim Furyk contending again and where value picks are plentiful. Read Steve's preview here......

Steve takes a good look at this week's Race to Dubai event in Kuala Lumpur. Will another promising youngster take the title?...

Steve looks back on yet another fantastic Masters tournament. What lessons have we learnt for next year?...

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The Punter's US Masters De-Brief: Blubbing Bubba bags a biggy

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Bubba gets a hug from Ben Crane after his emotional win

“The back-nine is where you make your score. Once through the tricky 12th birdie opportunities are there on almost every hole. The 17th and 18th are tough but not impossible and the last two winners have both made four straight birdies on the back nine.”

Steve looks back on yet another fantastic Masters tournament. What lessons have we learnt for next year?

It really is quite remarkable how year after year this event produces so much drama and this time around, three shots grabbed the headlines.

First there was Louis Oosthuizen's second to the par five 2nd, which incredibly found the bottom of the cup to propel the South African to the top of the leaderboard. Then there was Phil Mickelson's horror tee-shot on four that ricocheted unluckily off the grandstand and into a virtually unplayable spot to cost him his chance of a fourth Green Jacket. And finally there was a magic moment from Bubba Watson on the second extra hole. Presumable affected by just missing a ten-footer for the title, Bubba smacked his tee-shot on the 10th hole deep into the trees, right of the fairway, from where he hit a 50-yard hook, setting up a birdie opportunity. As it transpired, Oosty failed to make par and Bubba was able to two-putt for the title.

My Bets
They say fortune favours the brave. Well I was brave last night and ill-fortune favoured me. With a substantial wager on Lefty from the start, after much deliberation, my plan was to lay back my stakes and a wee bit more should he go odds on and had Oosthuizen not made that miraculous albatross, he would have done.

With a five-footer for par on the 1st hole, Phil was around [2.3] when Oosty struck. Had the South African not made his astonishing two, and once Phil had safely made the par on the 1st and then found the fairway on the 2nd, he almost certainly would have gone odds on.

And then there were the horrors of the 4th hole. Yes he hit a terrible shot but boy was he unlucky with the outcome. Still, I've no regrets, a couple of freak occurrences robbed me of a profitable tournament but I wouldn't do anything differently given the same set of circumstances. I think it was just bad, bad luck.

Observations and lessons for next year

You need a good start.
Phil Mickelson didn't just lose the event on the 4th hole yesterday, he lost it on Thursday. A fast start at the Masters is imperative. Mistakes will always happen and you need a good start. A cushion if you like. The first four names on the day one leaderboard were Lee Westwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Peter Hanson and Bubba Watson. Mickelson's opening round of 74 left him a mountain to climb.

Who to back in 2013?
Nobody has ever won the Masters having made a triple-bogey, yet Lefty very nearly pulled it off having made two! Add to that his very poor start and it's quite incredible how close he came to winning. Nobody prepares for, or plays, Augusta National better than Phil Mickelson and although the years are ticking by, I still think he has at least one more victory in him.

Lefty apart, as I just think he's so well suited to the test, it may be worth opposing those in the mix this year. Eight players hit the front on day four in 2011 and none of those eight, despite many of them being quite well fancied, featured this year. It could just be a coincidence or there could be something in it. Could players that figure one year, expect too much of themselves, and therefore heap too much pressure on themselves, the following year?

Course experience is vital
With three straight missed cuts, Louis Oosthuizen hardly had course form to boast but he does have the game for Augusta. He's far from the first to suddenly get it and I wouldn't give up on someone just because their previous course form is poor - providing they have the right game.

What skills are needed to win the Green Jacket?
Length is a big advantage - Louis ranked 2nd for Driving Distance and Bubba 4th. And Westwood, Hanson and Mickelson can get it out there too.

Scoring on the par fives is vital. It's all about hanging on elsewhere and making hay at the long holes but yet again, the most important stat is putting...

Bubba is an unusual winner, in that he didn't rank very highly with the putter this week. In fact, his poor performance with the flat-stick when I backed him last time out at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was the only reason I didn't back him here - just to add to my frustrations! Mickelson was the best putter on the week but Hanson and Oosthuizen weren't far behind him, ranking 3rd and 5th respectfully.

In-running angle
The back-nine is where you make your score. Once through the tricky 12th, birdie opportunities are there on almost every hole. The 17th and 18th are tough but not impossible and the last two winners have both made four straight birdies on the back nine. And both may have felt their chance had gone when they did.

Adam Scott looked the winner last year until Charl Schwartzel followed a frustrating run of pars with birdies at each of the last four holes. This time around, Bubba made four off the bat after bogeying the 12th. I just wonder if both players had thought their chances of glory may have passed and as a result they relaxed slightly.

Hole-in-one
Geoff Ogilvy very nearly aced the 16th yesterday. Bo Van Pelt and Adam Scott did. I highlighted this angle before the off and no doubt I shall be doing so again next year.

I'm sure there are plenty of other little snippets and angles in and if anyone has their own, please feel free to comment. Paul gave us a cracker on this year's preview when he posted that every winner, apart from Tiger Woods in 1996, has made the cut the year before they won since Fuzzy Zoeller won here on debut in 1979 - though Louis came very close to blowing that one!

Getting over the Masters hangover isn't going to be too hard this week, we've a pair of cracking events kicking off on Thursday - the Maybank Malaysian Open on the Race to Dubai and the RBC Heritage on the PGA Tour. I'll be back tomorrow or on Wednesday with previews for each.

With just one round to go at Augusta National, nine players appear to hold a chance to win the year's first major. Steve Rawlings profiles each of the Masters hopefuls...

What will it take to win the year's first major? Our man takes a look at past results and key trends at Augusta National and he also gives the reasoning behind his eight selections......

It's live on TV and it'll make for a pleasant aperitif before the main event but Steve Rawlings, aka The Punter, advises caution and the application of a pin! Read his thoughts on Wednesday's Par Three Contest here......

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Hanson and Lefty in charge

US Masters / Steven Rawlings / 08 April 2012 / 3 Comments

Peter Hanson – Can he handle the heat?

“Peter Hanson tends to get very nervous in-contention and I think the enormity of the task will take its toll.”

With just one round to go at Augusta National, nine players appear to hold a chance to win the year's first major. Steve Rawlings profiles each of the Masters hopefuls

10:45 - April 8, 2012

On a day when just seven players broke 70, Peter Hanson and Phil Mickelson have seemingly put themselves in command after moving day. Rounds of 65 and 66 respectfully have thrust them to the top of the leaderboard and given 18 of the last 20 winners have been in the final pairing on Sunday it may be futile to look beyond them with a round to go.

If the top two do fail we can perhaps go down as far as the four players tied for sixth but it's hard to envisage anyone else having a chance. Here's a look at those that can still win the 2012 US Masters with prices to back as at 10.40am.

Peter Hanson -9 [5.4]
With four wins from five when he's held a third round lead, the stats would suggest the Swede has every chance of converting but stats can be deceiving. He actually tends to get very nervous in-contention and I think the enormity of the task will take its toll. Paul Krishnamurty advocates laying players in the Top 5 Finish market in his in-running trading guide here and I wouldn't put anyone off laying Hanson now at around the [1.5] mark.

Phil Mickelson -8 [2.76]
With three green jackets in the last eight years already, Lefty is most definitely the man to beat. I will look to lay back some of my pre-event wager at some point, should I get the chance, but he's too big to do so now.

Louis Oosthuizen -7 [7.0]
Already a major winner, having won the Open Championship in 2010, Louis will be looking to become the third South African to win the event in five years. He has the class and is in incredible form but he led by two last week at the Shell Houston Open with a round to go before melting like an Easter egg on a radiator. I can't see his nerves holding out here.

Bubba Watson -6 [10.5]
Bubba didn't make my portfolio because he came into the event putting deplorably and given that after three rounds the front three on the leaderboard rank first second and third for putting on the week, I was right to dismiss poor putters, but Bubba's found something from somewhere. He's ranked 20th for putting at present and if the flat-stick behaves itself, Watson could be the one to put it up to the leaders.

Matt Kuchar -5 [20.0]
A birdie at the final hole salvaged something from a poor back-nine performance yesterday, after he'd put himself right in the mix with a three-under par front-nine. He's not a player I like to back as, again, he too gets very nervous and I can't help but think his chance has gone.

Lee Westwood -4 [22.0]
The Worksop Wonder has slowly drifted away after leading on day one and without doubt the putter is to blame. He missed one from inside a foot yesterday and you don't win this event putting like that. I'm surprised he's shorter than Hunter Mahan and he wouldn't be for me.

Hunter Mahan -4 [27.0]
Hunter was impressive last Sunday when he finished off the Shell Houston in style. A major title is the next step for the world's highest ranked American and he won't feel as though he has anything to lose starting the day five back.

Padraig Harrington -4 [38.0]
Putting advice from Bernard Langer appears to have paid off for the triple major winner and he could be dangerous. Not afraid of performing on the biggest of stages, Padraig is a reasonable price and he shouldn't be nearly twice the price of Westwood.

Henrik Stenson-4 [44.0]
Stenson's likely to rue making eight on the last on Thursday for many a day to come. It's great to see the likable Swede back in form but it's hard to envisage him winning. There'll be a mistake or two along the way today I'm sure and given the size of the gap that needs bridging, he can't afford any.

The remainder are -3 or worse and [190.0] and bigger and I'd be very surprised if the winner doesn't come from those listed above.

Don't forget to have a few pounds on Yes in the Hole-in-One market before plays starts if you want a fun wager at a sporting price. Enjoy what's bound to be a fantastic evening's entertainment, good luck, and I'll be back tomorrow with my US Masters De-brief.

10:05 - April 7, 2012

Twelve months ago we witnessed one of the tightest, most spectacular finales in US Masters history, with eight players hitting the front at one stage or another during the final round. We could be heading for something very similar this time around, in fact, it could be an even more dramatic finish if the leading pack stays intact. With fully thirty players within five of the lead at halfway, surely another exciting Sunday is on the cards? I'm not so sure...

I'm delighted that I haven't got too involved in-running so far and I'm not in a desperate rush to change that stance. This looks very hard to call, and besides, after his superb four-under par second round 68, my main pick, Phil Mickelson, has played himself right back into it. He's now on -2 and just three off the lead.

In stark contrast to Lefty, Tiger Woods appears to have played his way out of the event. The star attraction of last night's live coverage was quite frankly awful. It wasn't easy for the latter starters with play painfully slow (Tiger's group took nearly six hours to get round)and everyone seemed to be struggling as the shadows lengthened and the temperature dropped but pre-event favourite Tiger was really poor.

His game looked in total disarray and although it's always dangerous to dismiss a class-act like Woods, eight off the lead and with 39 players in front of him, I don't like his chances one iota.

Jason Dufner and 52 year-old Freddie 'Boom Boom' Couples, one of Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me a 100 Winner picks, are tied for the lead on -5, with a pack of five top-class contenders, including Rory McIlroy, who now heads the market at [4.4], one back.

Although jam-packed at present, I fancy the leaderboard will thin out considerably tonight and I can see it looking very differently tomorrow. Nine players broke 70 on day one and only five managed it yesterday, and I can't imagine that trend will reverse as the course dries out. If you're lucky enough to have a pick in the leading pack right now, don't get frustrated if they don't start with a rash of birdies later. Tonight could well be a grind and anyone capable of breaking par on moving day will prosper greatly.

Of the first three in the betting at present, Rory could cut out the mistakes and outclass them all, Lee Westwood could start dropping a few more putts, or Lefty (who currently tops the putting stats) could start finding more fairways and greens but it's impossible to call and I'm happy to carry on waiting. I really wish I could say I fancied player x or player y strongly at halfway but the fact of the matter is I don't and I'm continuing with the cautious stance.

Bar for a couple of small top-up wagers on Ben Crane and Y.E Yang, at [120.0] and [150.0] respectfully, I'm keeping my powder dry for now, with a view to trading as the third round progresses. I will be keeping an eye on those players three and four off the lead as they come to the birdie holes on the back nine. Anyone on level or better for the day on the 13th tee could be about to make a huge move.

I'll be back in the morning with another look, when things will hopefully look a bit easier.

01:25 - April 6, 2012

Can we start again please?

Waiting for the Masters feels like waiting for Christmas when you're a kid - the anticipation is simply magical. And to carry the analogy forward, there was a point in time yesterday whereby my selections were doing so poorly, that it felt as though Santa had not only failed to deliver any new toys, he'd broken in and stolen the old ones! It's not been a great start for yours truly but at least the tournament's still on track...

The forecast suggested we might get delays but the thunderstorms failed to materialise and at the end of day one, and mercifully round one, Lee Westwood holds sway on -5 after a superb opening round of 67, which had he putted slightly better (the usual story with Lee) could have been a few shots better.

The big two, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy, had contrasting ends to their lacklustre opening rounds. Tiger Woods bogeyed the last two holes to finish on level par and Rory birdied them to finish on -1.

My two shortest priced picks were very disappointing to say the least. Phil Mickelson bogeyed the 9th to go over par and then lost his ball off the tee on the 10th before going on to record a three-over par seven! In a flash he was four-over and his chance looked gone. To his credit, he rallied and his birdie on the last leaves him on +2. You pay your money and you take your chance with Lefty - he's boom or bust and I've no regrets about backing him but I'm cross with myself for backing Luke Donald, who finished the day on +3.

I knew his first round record was poor here and what I really should have done was wait. Oh well, it's no use crying over spilt milk.

Of the rest of my pre-event picks, Miguel Angel Jimenez has done me proud (shooting -3) and Angel Cabrera did ok, finishing on -1, but the rest were dire.

I've had just one in-running punt so far, throwing a few pounds at my old mate Ben Crane at [80.0], who sits on -3. Other than that, I'm going to hang fire for now. It looks fascinatingly poised and it will be interesting to see how the likes of Woods, McIlroy and even Lefty respond to being so far behind but whatever they do, it could all be futile if you believe in the power of the bib!

Apparently, on the last three occasions that the Masters has ended on Easter Sunday, the winner's caddy has worn bib number 53. And that's the number Westwood's caddy Billy Foster has drawn this week. Could it be an omen?

I'll be back later today if I get further involved before play kicks off but I think I'm going to wait until the second round is well underway. There are so many imponderables still and I want to wait until the stagger unwinds and the field thins out somewhat. After such a bad start I could easily force things and get myself into a right mess.

US Masters Pre-Event Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [14.5]
Luke Donald @ [18.0]
K.J Choi @ [80.0]
Geoff Ogilvy @ [140.0]
Trevor Immelman @ [160.0]
Angel Cabrera @ [180.0]
Y.E Yang @ [200.0]
Miguel Angel Jimenez@ [300.0]

In-Play bet
Ben Crane @ [80.0]

There's a whole host of drama to come at Augusta and Paul Krishnamurty has picked out a variety of ways to keep you that little bit more interested in the Augusta action with these four bets......

Phil Mickelson is a [2.72] shot to win the Masters for a fourth time, ahead of third round leader Peter Hanson and 2010 Open champion Louis Oosthuizen....

An intriguing Masters leaderboard awaits us this morning with any one of 30 players in with a chance of winning the tournament. Saturday is traditionally classed as moving day so who does Paul Krishnamurty expect to be rising up the...

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Lefty still in the mix

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Mickelson - Bang there in Houston

“I’ve been closely monitoring my pre-event pick, Phil Mickelson, since he started playing today at 1.30pm and I’ve just about had enough for one day. It’s been worth the effort though.”

It's been a long day for the players in Houston and it's been a long day for Steve too, but has it been a good one?

22:05 - March 30, 2012

It's been a long, boring and tiring day spent almost entirely tied to the laptop but it's been worth the effort.

I started out this morning with three pre-event picks in fair positions after day one of the Sicily Open. Day two ended with precisely no pre-event picks in-contention. Not that I'm moaning. It just goes to show how fickle this game is. In stark contrast, after day one in Morocco last week I thought I was out of the game completely, yet Michael Hoey recovered from a seemingly impossible position to win the event - swings and roundabouts and all that.

We've reached halfway in Sicily now and I've just about conceded defeat, for now anyway. With six players tied for the lead on -8, seven a shot back in a tie for 7th and a full dozen sitting on -6, it's nigh on impossible and discretion looks likely to be the better part of valour - though I have had a couple of very small in-running wagers. I've had small win bets on both Garth Mulroy and Richard Green. Both players are amongst the group on -7.

At the Shell Houston Open I've been closely monitoring my pre-event pick, Phil Mickelson, since he started playing today at 1.30pm. He came back to finish off round one, which he did very well, and now he's finishing up round two and I've just about had enough for one day. It's been worth the effort though.

Lefty tied for the lead after round one and although, like me, he appears to be running out of steam for the day now, he's still right up there and I've managed to lay back my stake on him at an average of [3.80], which was pretty decent considering the lowest he's been matched at is [3.25], and for money of any sort of note, [3.45].

I've also added Louis Oosthuizen now, who's just hit the front on -11. At [10.5], I haven't got a great price considering I've been watching him move menacingly into the mix for the last couple of hours. I've sort of been hoping he'd go away but I eventually came to the conclusion he wasn't going to. Of course, he probably will now!

Play should go on until the small hours (UK time) but I'm going to call it a day now, I'm shattered. I'll have another look in the morning and see where I stand. Keep going Phil, even if I can't!

14.55 - March 30, 2012

Phil Mickelson is making a nice early move at the Shell Houston Open. He's now four-under par through eight holes and his price for next week's US Masters might just be about to go.

If you were intending to back Lefty for a fourth win at Augusta, now might be the time to do so.

12:05 - March 30, 2012

You really do have to laugh. Guess who bogeyed two holes straight after I'd written "Another of my picks, Scott Jamieson has just started out in round two on -4 and I'd like to think he can get involved (that's him jinxed then!) but we'll see."

11:55 - March 30, 2012

I'll start with events across the pond first, where play was suspended thanks to some pretty nasty weather. Thunder stopped play at around 1.30pm (7.30pm UK time) and flooded fairways following heavy rain prevented any further action.

Only one of my three picks managed to get finished and that was Stuart Appleby, who shot +2. Graham DeLaet has been most unlucky; he has to set his alarm to return to the track early, at 7.30am (1.30pm UK time) to negotiate a three foot par putt on the 9th, his final hole of round one. At least he's on a decent score though, should he tap that in, he'll be just two out of the lead - set jointly by Carl Pettersson and Angel Cabrera, who both shot -7.

My only other pick, Phil Mickelson, has only played three holes so far but at least he's under par having birdied the 1st. It's going to be a long day for those that started yesterday afternoon, or were due to. Nine groups haven't even started round one yet and a couple of groups have only just teed off.

There's a distinct possibility that those that have finished round one already, won't play at all today and they may have had a bit of a result. The organisers are going to be hard-pressed to get this finished on time now. With the US Masters starting on Thursday, the plan remains to get the event done and dusted by 5.00pm on Sunday so the players can get to Augusta in good time. They won't want anymore interruptions.

It's been a curious start to the Sicily Open where, with the wind switching and the weather warming, the afternoon starters shot an average of 1.3 strokes less than the morning guys on day one. Then, for much of this morning, playing in what appear benign conditions, nobody seems to be kicking on.

Day one ended with Peter Lawrie in front on -8, one ahead of Jamie Donaldson, Soren Kjeldsen and Tano Goya and as I write, the first of the morning starters are ending their rounds and the lead is still only -8.

The best of my picks so far is James Morrison, who was on -7 when the coverage ended last night before he bogeyed the last and then this morning, he's only level par for round two so far. That's more than a little disappointing but at least he traded short enough to reach the first lay-back target set in the Find Me a 100 Winner column. Albeit only just.

Another of my picks, Scott Jamieson has just started out in round two on -4 and I'd like to think he can get involved (that's him jinxed then!) but we'll see. It's going to be a busy day, so I'll probably post again at some point.

Sicilian Open Pre-Event Selections:
Tommy Fleetwood @ [70.0]
Scott Jamieson @ [70.0]
James Morrison @ [160.0]

In-Play bets
Richard Green @ [16.0]
Garth Mulroy @ [38.0]

Shell Houston Pre-Event Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [14.5]
Graham DeLaet @ [230.0]
Stuart Appleby @ [250.0]

In-Play bets
Layed Phil Mickelson @ [3.80]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [10.5]

Steve takes a look at this week's PGA Tour action from Texas, where he fancies Phil Mickelson could very well defend his title...

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Steady Furyk the value in Florida

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jim Furyk – Good value at [4.6] according to The Punter

“Given the record of third round leaders, I quite like Furyk here and I’ve backed him at [4.6].”

It's still too close to call in Spain but Steve likes the chances of Jim Furyk in the States. Can he become the eighth third round leader to win in 12 years?

14:05 - March 18, 2012

The Open de Andalucía still looks nigh on impossible but I've taken a chance in-running on Hennie Otto. I've had a very moderate bet at [8.0].

11:20 - March 18, 2012

With just one round to go, I'm still keeping my in-running powder dry at the Open de Andalucía. The leaderboard is still chock-a-block and almost as bemusing today as it was yesterday. I tried to back Tournament Host Miguel Angel Jimenez at [9.4] overnight but I didn't get matched.

Eduardo de la Riva still has his nose in front on -12 but he's closely followed by Matteo Manassero and Simon Khan on -11, with Mig, Hennie Otto and David Lynn on -10 and then there's a host of others on -9. My pre-event pick, Oliver Fisher is amongst the eight players on -8 and none of those can be discounted either. It's going to be an entertaining day.

I like Mig and I would have backed him at [9.4]- he's the experienced multiple winner in the mix that might just steer a steady ship to the winning line, while everyone else gets jumpy, but there's enough doubts for me to leave him be for now at his current price of less than [9.0]. I have no idea what his hosting duties included yesterday evening but it's just possible it involved more than the odd glass of Rioja and how will he react to pondering how to hand himself the trophy should victory seem likely?

No doubt there will be plenty of twists and turns in-running and I'll be watching and waiting to see how the final day develops. For the record, the two previous winners at Aloha, Lee Westwood and Thomas Levet were bang there with a round to go so a winner from off the pace may not be as likely as the open looking leaderboard suggests. Westwood entered round four leading by one in 2007 and Levet trailed by one a year later. Incidentally, Westwood had been the third round leader in 2008 too and Oliver Fisher, vanquished by Levet in the playoff, had also started the final round one behind Westwood.

Over in the States, I was really disappointed by the finish to round three by my first in-running wager of the week, Kenny Perry. He appeared to be playing nicely and on -8, two under for the day, he was making serene progress up the leaderboard, and he was matched at a lot less than I'd backed him at. But after making the turn he missed a makeable birdie putt at the tricky 10th before failing to birdie the easy 11th and that signalled the beginning of the end. He three-putted the 12th to make bogey and the wheels fell off after that. It was disappointing because the course is clearly getting tougher and the experienced old heads are coming to the fore - it should have suited an old pro like Perry.

Former winners Retief Goosen and Jim Furyk are now tied at the top on -11, with Sang-Moon Bae and Jason Dufner a shot back in a tie for third. John Mallinger and the veteran Ken Duke are a further shot behind on -9, with Chez Reavie, Ernie Els and Luke Donald on -8.

Given the record of third round leaders, I quite like Furyk here and I've backed him at [4.6]. Over the first 11 years of the event, seven winners have led or been tied for the lead (five led outright). Goosen came from one back in 2009 and Gary Woodland two last year. The inaugural winner, John Huston was four off the lead and in 2008, Sean O'Hair came from three back - thanks largely to a Stewart Cink collapse.

Goosen is nursing an injured back and has an appalling final round record nowadays anyway. My doubts over Dufner were aired yesterday and Bae was all over the shop at times in round three and he might not get away with such sloppiness today. Like Dufner and Bae, Mallinger and Duke are also looking for their first PGA Tour wins and Furyk might just get his own way in front.

It's no coincidence that the top two have won here before and that they're both experienced US Open winners. This place gets tougher as the week goes on and a solid and dependable steady round may well be enough for Jim. If this event was played out three times from here I'd have to fancy him to convert at least once and his odds of [4.6] are more than fair.

I've also had a small wager on Ernie Els at [38.0]. Another veteran US Open winner, Els is desperate to get his head in front in order to qualify for the US Masters. Coming from slightly off the pace here might just aid the Big Easy and if the leaders struggle he could be the one to profit.

I'll be back tomorrow with the De-Brief.

10:35 - March 17, 2012

We've reached the halfway stage of both this week's events, the Open de Andalucía and the Transitions Championship and I have to confess, having been engrossed with the Cheltenham Festival, I've barely seen any of the action so far.

After a torrid week's punting at Prestbury Park I was hoping to get stuck into the golf this morning in an attempt to claw back some losses but having been through the halfway leaderboard in Spain umpteen times I think the County Hurdle was easier!

On a jam-packed leaderboard, Eduardo de la Riva holds sway by a single stroke over a bunch of five, with another eight players all tied for seventh, a further shot back. It's very tight and crammed with quality.

Paul Krishnamurty has done it yet again with his Find Me A 100 Winner column. Tommy Fleetwood, advised at whopping [170.0], is one of those tied for second. Alongside Tommy is first round leader Matteo Manassero, tournament host Miguel Angel Jimenez, Damien McGrane and Pablo Larrazabal. Amongst those two off the lead are fairly recent winners Michael Hoey, Hennie Otto and Robert Rock, as well as a couple of class acts on the comeback trail in Edoardo Molinari and Oliver Wilson. It looks too tough to call at this stage and I'm hanging fire for now.

My main fancy, Alejandro Canizares has been a disappointment. He started the event poorly before recovering well on day one and then yesterday he looked as though he might just tag himself on to the leading bunch but then finished disastrously. James Morrison started well but it didn't last and he ended up missing the cut and Oliver Fisher has fared best so far. He starts round three on -4 - four off the lead.

Over in the States, my sole pick, Jonathan Byrd, has made the cut but only just, so it's a case of back to the drawing board there too.

Jason Dufner has started well again (he led after day one at last week's WGC Cadillac Championship) and on -10, he leads first round leader, Padraig Harrington and William McGirt by two. Luke Donald and last week's Puerto Rico Open champ George McNeil are amongst those on -7 and tied for ninth on -6, there's a quality quartet made up of Sergio Garcia, previous winner Jim Furyk, pre-event fancy John Senden and Champions Tour star Kenny Perry. This one doesn't look any easier than the Open de Andalucía but I have at least found one I felt worth backing.

Dufner is bogey-free so far this week but he just can't be trusted to keep that up. He will win an event sooner or later and he came mighty close last year, losing in playoffs at both the WM Phoenix Open and the PGA Championship but until he does win one, I just don't want to back him. And I suspect when he does break his duck it won't be from the front. McGirt has never been in such a lofty position and can't be fancied, whilst Harrington hasn't won on either of the main tours since he took the 2088 PGA Championship. Yesterday's over-par effort (following a career best course record 61 on Thursday) wasn't exactly encouraging either.

Luke Donald is my idea of the likeliest winner but there's no value in his price of [5.6]. McNeil looks fairly priced at around [28.0] and confidence must be sky high but can he really go back-to-back? I looked at Senden closely before the off but felt given how hard he finds it to win he looked too short and at [24.0] now, he still does but one who looks worth taking a chance on is Kenny Perry.

KP is more than capable of low scoring and he could easily put in a low one today and move right into the mix. This time last month he was breaking the 36-hole scoring record on the Champions Tour (in Florida) at the ACE Group Classic, where he opened up with rounds of 64 and 62 before coasting home by five on the final day. He's always been a streaky player, who can get hot and stay hot and he's a multiple winner who shouldn't be a triple-figure price.

I'll be back either tonight or tomorrow with another look at the state of play. I'm hoping to see an opportunity arise in Spain this afternoon but I'm going to be cautious. After Cheltenham, I need to be!

Open de Andalucía Pre-Event Bets
Alejandro Canizares @ [60.0]
Oliver Fisher @ [130.0]
James Morrison @ [250.0]

Transitions Championship Pre-Event Bet
Jonathan Byrd @ [60.0]

In-Running Plays
Kenny Perry @ [100.0]
Jim Furyk @ [4.6]
Ernie Els @ [38.0]

Steve puts this week's US PGA Tour event under the microscope. What sort of player will prosper at Copperhead?...

Our man takes a detailed looked at this week's event on the Race to Dubai, as the Tour returns to Europe. What will it take to win this week in Spain?...

Bubba collapses, Rose holds firm and Woods limps out...again. Read Steve's final thoughts on last week's golf here......

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Great Scott off to a flyer

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 09 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Adam Scott – A reluctant in-play bet for The Punter

“Almost every time I’ve backed Scott he’s disappointed me but he had to be sided with at [7.2] here.”

The winds up and it's going to be a tough week. Steve fancies the early pace setters will have a say at the end of the week in Florida and he's reluctantly got one of the first round leaders onside already. Read his thoughts after round one here...

00.10 - March 9, 2012

The forecast suggests that the wind won't be quite as bad over the next three days as it was on day one, but even so, we look set for a real war of attrition around Doral. It was plenty breezy enough yesterday and the leaderboard is packed solid with wind specialists.

Jason Dufner birdied his final hole (the 9th) late in the day to join Adam Scott at the head of affairs on -6 and they're two clear of the rest. Scott had set the early pace with his excellent 66, and it could have been quite a bit better, but for a disappointing finish. Also playing the course back to front, he was seven under par through eleven holes but played the last seven in one over.

If I hadn't meddled just before the off, I'd be more than happy with my lot so far but a last minute back of Phil Mickelson took the shine off the day. I'm a bit of Lefty fan to say the least and I couldn't really work out why he drifted so badly before the off. I couldn't fancy him at [14.0] at the start of the week when the forecast looked atrocious but as the forecast improved slightly, he drifted a lot. I'm not saying he can't play in the wind because he most certainly can but he's always a better bet in calmer conditions so the improving forecast increased his chances in my eyes. Anyway, I couldn't resist [18.5] before the off and so he got added to the eight I'd already backed. He finished up shooting level par and that was about as well as he ever looked like shooting but it's highly unlikely to be good enough as a fast start here looks essential.

I'd pointed out in my preview that the last seven winners have all been right up there from the get-go, with Tiger Woods' win in 2007, from four back after day one, the furthest any winner has been behind at this stage.

Fortunately, three of my pre-event picks are right up there. Both Thomas Bjorn and Charl Schwartzel are tied for third on -4 and Kyle Stanley's in the logjam in a tie for fifth on -3. I thought I'd be getting further involved at this stage and I have, even though I didn't want to! Dufner's still in search of his maiden win so I'm leaving him out for now but I've felt compelled to get Scott onside, even though I really don't like him!

Almost every time I've backed Scott he's disappointed me but he had to be sided with at [7.2] here. Scott has led or been tied for the lead 13 times in the last ten years and he's converted on three of those occasions, including two huge tournaments (last year's WGC Bridgestone and the 2004 Players Championship). Given Dufner's poor record and the fact that three of the last six winners here were in front after day one, I felt I had to get Scott onside, as much as it pains me.

I'm tempted by Aaron Baddeley, he's on -3 and he's the latest in a long line of magnificent Find Me A 100 Winner picks for Paul Krishnamurty in 2012, but I'm going to leave it for now and see what round two brings.

Away from my bets, one round one finish worthy of note was that of Sergio Garcia. The enigmatic Spaniard has had his spells in the doldrums of late and it looks like he could well be heading for another dark phase - he finished absolutely appallingly, bogeying five in-a-row before finding water twice on the treacherous 18th. And to think some poor soul backed him at [7.0] in-running!

Just a quick word on the week's other event - the Puerto Rico Open. More bad news on the last minute bet front I'm afraid. As well as getting Lefty onside at Doral, I also backed Stephen Ames and Jerry Kelly here. Ames was awful, Kelly slightly less so.

Of my pre-event picks, my bright spark so far is Ben Curtis, backed at [80.0], who spent much of the day atop of the leaderboard. Matt Jones and George McNeill sneaked past him late in the day but I'm more than happy with his five under par 67 start.

I don't know whether the organisers have had the European Tour scorers give them hand this week but there were a number of errors, as there are week in and week out on the Race to Dubai. Two of my players had their scores amended way after they'd finished their rounds but for a refreshing change, both went in my favour. Graham DeLaet's was the most pleasing amendment - his one under par 71 was changed to a three under 69. I'd advise a little caution if you're betting in-running here.

WGC Cadillac Championship Pre-Event Bets
Phil Mickelson @ [18.5] (after the preview was published)
Charl Schwartzel @ an average of [34.0]
Rickie Fowler @ [55.0]
Kyle Stanley @ [100.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [160.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [210.0]
Paul Casey @ [250.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [450.0]
Greg Chalmers @ [450.0]

In-Running Bet
Adam Scott @ [7.2]

Puerto Rico Open Pre-Event Bets
Dicky Pride @ [55.0]
Troy Matteson @ [65.0]
Stephen Ames @ [70.0] (after the preview was published)
Jerry Kelly @ [70.0] (after the preview was published)
Ben Curtis @ [80.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [110.0]
Graham DeLaet @ [130.0]

It may well be playing second fiddle to the WGC Cadillac Championship but someone has to win in Puerto Rico. Has Steve found that someone? Read his preview here......

With breezy weather forecast for the second WGC event of the year, our man plumps for an octet of wind specialists at tasty prices, and he also has a plan for day one. Read his preview here......

The Tiger roars again but he still can't eclipse McIlroy, as the youngster wins the Honda Classic in style to top the world rankings......

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Can Rory take his chance?

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 04 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

World number one in waiting - Rory McIlroy

"Rory has finished in the top-five in nine of his last ten events – a phenomenal run of form. But it’s worth considering that he’s only actually won once during that period of excellence."

With storms threatening, play has been brought forward in Florida, with the leaders teeing off at 3.30pm. Can odds on Rory take the title and the world number one spot? The Punter gives his verdict here...

12.15 - March 4, 2012

Sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing and with a round to go, I've only just got involved in-running. I looked long and hard at the state of play before round three and although I was tempted by Keegan Bradley and Justin Rose, I eventually decided that discretion was the better part of valour and it's paid off. Bradley is still around [13.0] this morning and Justin Rose is considerably bigger than the [5.6] he was yesterday, after a disappointing third round. Trailing Rory McIlroy by four, he's now [16.5].

Current leaderboard and odds to back as at 12.00
Rory McIlroy -11 [1.64]
Harris English -9 [11.0]
Tom Gillis -9 [16.0]
Keegan Bradley -7 [13.5]
Justin Rose -7 [16.5]
Brian Harman -7 [55.0]
Charl Schwartzel -6 [22.0]
Dicky Pride -6 [140.0]
Greg Chalmers -5 [110.0]
-4 bar

It was impossible not to be really impressed with Rory yesterday. There was something about his demeanour that suggested he's experienced a step up in belief and on the face of it a win today and his inevitable rise to world number one as a result, looks almost inevitable. But yesterday was Saturday, today's Sunday, and the pressure is infinitely more intense on payday and I'm still not utterly convinced, despite his confident appearance.

He's without any doubt the best golfer in the world now, he's also the most in-form and the most consistent but the fact remains, he's not converting chances with relentless regularity and those considering piling in at just [1.64] need to exercise caution. Incredibly, Rory has finished in the top-five in nine of his last ten events - a phenomenal run of form. But it's worth considering that he's only actually won once during that period of excellence.

Although I wouldn't advocate backing Rory at [1.64], with so few alternatives on offer, I'm in no mood to lay him either. Instead I've tried to be clever and picked out a couple of small backs.

Tom Gillis was clinging on yesterday and he made some remarkable par saves but I can't see how he can keep it going again today. He looks highly likely to struggle and I can't fancy him at all.

I'm still tempted by Bradley and I may yet back him in-running but in tricky conditions any margin is magnified and he may just have too much to do. I'd suspected one or two players might have shot better to emerge from the pack yesterday but it just didn't happen. Harris English and Rory shot the equal best rounds - four under par 66's and it's very difficult to envisage anyone shooting low today. Conditions wouldn't have gotten any easier overnight!

Justin Rose's game was ragged yesterday and he needs to improve a lot today, so maybe I was right to dismiss him on the account of his current form after all. Albeit only just! If he plays like he did yesterday, he has no chance.

Charl Schwartzel could be a viable alternative, if he can put in another fast start but sustain it this time. He was four under par through just six holes yesterday but played out the remaining two thirds of the course in one over.

It's hard to find alternatives but after much deliberation, I've had a couple of small wagers on the two Q-school graduates in the mix.

Should Rory struggle, 22 year old American Harris English could just be the man to prosper. He too looked coolness personified yesterday; however the same warning applies to him as it does to Rory. Today's a whole different ball game and English could turn into a gibbering wreck but I thought he was the best alternative at the odds available and just about worth a small wager and I'm also taking a chance on Brian Harman...

Harman was the U.S. Junior Amateur in 2003 and at 25 he has fully three years over English and Rors - a veritable veteran! I don't know much about him but anyone that can shoot 61 around PGA National - smashing the course record by three, and then return the following day and break par must have some game and it's likely the market has vastly underestimated him at [60.0].

Don't forget this starts very soon. The leaders tee off at 3.30pm and it's live on Sky from 3.30pm too. Enjoy!

15.25 - March 3, 2012

Given he came very close to being a selection, watching Justin Rose hit the front last night was particularly irritating, and I'm pretty sure had I not backed him last week, when he lost in round one of the Match Play to Paul Lawrie, I would have played him here. He ticked every box bar current form and I felt he was just a fraction short at around [40.0].

Rose was matched at just [3.20] last night as he went two shots clear but two late bogeys, just as he looked like he was going to kick clear, meant he ended the second round tied with Tom Gillis.

I'd written yesterday that I'd have a really good look today and I have, but I've decided to leave things alone for now, even though I'm desperate to oppose the current favourite, Rory McIlroy.

History suggests you need to be up with the pace at this stage and that maybe we shouldn't be looking any further than the front four (McIlroy and Dicky Pride on -7 trail Gillis and Rose by one) but with the forecast suggesting that the wind will pick up considerably today I'm going to hang fire.

McIlroy isn't a great wind player and I'd love to go against him. I'm tempted by both Rose at [5.5] and Keegan Bradley (three off the lead and a brilliant wind player) at [12.5] but I'm going to sit on my hands for now and see what happens early on.

Of my pre-event picks, Ben Crane fought back brilliantly after an early double-bogey but then spoilt all the good work by bogeying two of his last three holes. He's now on -4 and four of the lead. One further back is Ryan Palmer and believe it or not, I still have hope there. If the wind does really get up Palmer will relish the challenge and if there is going to be a big shake up today he could be one of those to make progress.

14:10 - March 2, 2012

I'm pretty sure I've never had so many picks all receive the usually beneficial early first round tee time. Incredibly, all eight selections were assigned an early start on Thursday but only two took full advantage. The morning starters averaged 70.40, compared to the afternoon starters who averaged 71.32, but with the wind forecast to be marginally worse this afternoon, I suspect it'll even itself out.

Best of my eight was Ryan Palmer, who shot a four under par 66, two more than first round leader, Ryder Cup captain, Davis Love III. Ben Crane shot 67, Matt Bettencourt 69 and a both Y.E Yang and Fredrik Jacobson shot level par - and they're not out of it yet.

Interestingly, a couple of past winners have started slowly so if your pick or picks haven't started brilliantly, don't panic. Last year's winner, Rory Sabbatini, shot a one over par 71 in round one and was sitting in a tie for 20th and Mark Wilson, who won in 2007, was in a tie for 53rd after starting the week with a two over 72. Both did get cracking on day two though and they were sitting second and fifth respectfully after round two and indeed, no winner has come from any further back than sixth at halfway.

I'm going to take a really good look at the close of play today and recent history suggests I shouldn't scan too far down the leaderboard to find the winner. With the drying wind making the course tougher as the week wares on, making up ground gets harder and harder and the last three winners were either one back (Sabatini) or leading at the halfway stage.

Play is already under way and Paul Krishnamurty has once again gotten himself a Find Me A 100 Winner in the mix. Carl Pettersson is current in a tie for third!

Of the fancied runners - Rory McIlroy has started well again, shooting -4, and it's surely only a matter of time before he's ranked the world's number one player. But Lee Westwood and Tiger Woods are struggling slightly. Westwood is currently on level par, five holes into round two, and Tiger Woods, in the same group, is one over. His putting woes are continuing unabated. He needed 34 strokes with the flatstick yesterday and nobody wins anything with that sort of average.

Honda Classic Pre-Event Selections:
Ben Crane @ [42.0]
Y. E. Yang @ [55.0]
Fredrik Jacobson @ [65.0]
Ryan Palmer @ [190.0]
Stephen Ames @ [250.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [350.0]
Graham DeLaet @ [400.0]

In-Play bets
Harris English @ [11.5]
Brian Harman @ [60.0]

There's just one event to concentrate on this week but it's a cracker. Read Steve's thoughts on the Honda Classic here......

It's been a poor week for Steve, with his gamble on Mark Wilson just falling short, but what lessons has he learnt for next year?...

After a dull day in the desert yesterday, Steve's hoping for a lot more excitement today. Could Mark Wilson go all the way and who will win the big grudge match?...

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Laird to stop Lee

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 25 February 2012 / 3 Comments

Martin Laird - Value to beat Westwood?

“Putting a positive slant on things, I’m entering the weekend with a quarter of the field onside. Putting a realistic slant on things, in all probability I’m heading for a bad week!”

With just one of his pre-event picks still alive Steve's clinging on and hoping for a result today. Can Mark Wilson keep The Punter smiling?

12.20 - February 25, 2012

There really can't be too many people shouting on a Mark Wilson - Sang-Moon Bae WGC World Match Play final but now we've reached the quarter-final stage, that's exactly where I'm at.

Having gone out for the evening, I didn't see any of the last 16 matches last night and with a niggling hangover I haven't bothered to watch the recording this morning but I'm grateful that a couple of results went my way...

Both Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood comfortably put away Miguel Angel Jimenez and Nick Watney but Mark Wilson and Sang-Moon Bae did me proud. Putting a positive slant on things, I'm entering the weekend with a quarter of the field onside. Putting a realistic slant on things, in all probability I'm heading for a bad week!

Wilson (backed at [170.0] before the off) takes on Peter Hanson in the first of the quarter final matches (kicks off at 17.05 UK time) in what looks a really tight affair. Hopefully Wilson can sneak past the Swede so I'll still have an interest entering the final day and Paul will have reached his first lay back target on his headline Find Me A 100 Winner selection. Not for the first time this week, fingers are firmly crossed.

The winner of that match will face either Matt Kuchar or Hunter Mahan in the semi finals and their quarter final tie looks just as tight. I wouldn't like to hazard a guess at who will prevail but given they both have a tendency to get a bit nervy there may well be mileage in opposing whoever goes up early. It could be a twitchy affair and a good heat to trade in-running.

I can't be confident that Bae will overcome McIlroy in his match and I fancy the betting is about right there, with the Korean currently trading at [3.15], but you never know, he's surprised everyone up to now so why not again today?

In the last of the four quarter finals, Lee Westwood takes on Martin Laird and I think the Scot is just about the value. I've been compelled to get him onside, albeit modestly, in the outright market but I see Paul has backed him in today's match. I really hope Westwood doesn't win because I'll be very frustrated if he does, I'm cross with myself for not getting him onside before the off, especially as I wrote this in my preview - "I've got a sneaky feeling about Lee Westwood this week. I haven't backed him yet but if he keeps on drifting (currently out to 23.0 from an opening price of 18.5) I may have to get him onside." Needless to say, I didn't.

14:20 - February 24, 2012

After a reasonable first day, when five of my original eight made it through to day two, yesterday was a very different story. Having added both Y.E Yang and Nick Watney, I started the day with seven onside; I ended it with just two! Not a great day by any means.

Y.E Yang and Francesco Molinari were comprehensively outplayed by Hunter Mahan and Dustin Johnson respectfully; Louis Oosthuizen led for most of his match but lost to a Steve Stricker birdie at the last, whilst Kyle Stanley and Jason Day both played far too badly to expect progression. All very disappointing and I was going to call it a day and just see how Mark Wilson and Watney fare tonight, but I really want to be against Rory McIlroy, so I've added two more!

Rory hasn't impressed in his first two rounds and I don't think the fact that he can become world number one should he win the event helps his cause. Today's opponent, Miguel Angel Jimenez, has already dumped out two bang in-form players in Sergio Garcia and Keegan Bradley and he'll not fear Rory. I see Paul advocates backing Miguel to beat him but I've backed him in the outright market instead. It takes a huge leap of faith to imagine Jimenez going all the way but my hope is that he gets through tonight to face another surprise package in the shape of Sang-Moon Bae...

It's rare that I don't see eye-to-eye with Paul but I fancy the Korean's better value at [40.0] than his third round opponent, John Senden. I can't see more than the thinnest of fag papers between them so I thought I may as well back the outsider.

I'm off out this evening and I can't say I'm too bothered about missing the golf. I know an awful lot of golf fans rave about matchplay but I don't enjoy it anywhere near as much as strokeplay. The luck element is just far too big for my liking.

I'll be back again in the morning when hopefully I won't be pondering whether to just give the event up as a bad job!

11:20 - February 23, 2012

A pretty typical WGC Match Play day one really, all wrapped up in unfathomable TV coverage.

There were countless shots of play by one player only, with no reference to their opponents whatsoever. For example, in the Adam Scott - Robert Rock match we saw Scott tee off on the 15th, we saw him chip out of the desert, chip onto the green and even attempt his par putt but what Rock was up to remained a mystery. It made for frustrating viewing.

I know it must be really tough to keep tabs on 32 different ties but some of their match choices were very odd. Obviously, we saw much of the Tiger Woods - Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano match but for some bizarre reason we kept being shown coverage of the Freddy Jacobsen -Robert Karlsson tie, which was as good as all-over before they reached the turn anyway. My guess is that Sky was receiving the Swedish TV feed in error!

And I was on tenterhooks over the K.J Choi-Kyle Stanley match as it approached its conclusion but I didn't get to see the finish. The result just came up on screen. Mercifully, it went my way with Stanley winning 2 & 1, but why we didn't see any of the play on 17 instead of watching Karlsson go five up with six to play is anyone's guess?

Anyway, that's more than enough moaning about the TV coverage; I'm starting to irritate myself now!

It was, as it invariable is each year, a day which contained a few first round shocks, with Ernie Els' thrashing of Luke Donald (5 & 4) arguably the biggest. Ian Poulter crashing out to Sang-Moon Bae was certainly unexpected too but the day will be remembered more for the amount of turnarounds.

Jim Furyk let Dustin Johnson off the hook, messing up the last in regulation when one up, before making a right pig's ear of the 2nd in extra time after Dustin had driven into the desert! And Bill Haas lost his match against Ryo Ishikawa after being thee up with five to play but the biggest turnaround came in the Jason Day - Rafael Cabrera-Bello match...

I confess, having already seen Zach Johnson and Justin Rose get beat, and with Ben Crane about to join them I was a bit fed up to say the least at one stage last night. Kyle Stanley was on the ropes, having gone from two up to one down in his match and Jason Day wasn't on the ropes, he was on the canvas and the count was fast approaching ten! It looked highly likely that my two main fancies were going out and that of my eight picks I was going to be left with just three but then Stanley turned his match round and Cabrera-Bello choked big style.

Three down with three to play was a desperate situation for Day to be in and he was matched at the maximum of [1000.0], albeit only for a couple of quid. There was more available and I looked and looked at it without taking any but I'm not moaning. I am grateful though - Cabrera-Bello saw the winning line and dodged it, bogeying the last three to relinquish his lead and there was an air of inevitability about Day's birdie on the first extra hole to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

I've had two in-running plays so far and I'm waiting for a third to be matched. I've now got Nick Watney onside at [32.0]; as I fancy he could well get past Woods and Stanley's section has opened up nicely with Donald and Scott both going out so I've had a modest top-up on him. I'm also trying to back Y.E Yang. I'm partially matched at [65.0] and hopeful that I'll get the rest matched before kick-off.

Rory McIlroy [11.5], who himself very nearly mucked up his first round match against George Coetzee, now heads the market, narrowly over Lee Westwood at [12.5]. Martin Kaymer is [14.5] and so is Tiger Woods. After an unconvincing performance against Gonzo, Woods is merely a point shorter than he was before the off.

The two eye-catching ties of round two are Tiger Woods against Nick Watney and Kyle Stanley against Brad Snedeker. The Watney -Woods match up looks really tight but I quite fancy Watney to prevail, especially if Tiger performs as poorly as he did yesterday. The Stanley - Snedeker match is interesting as it's a chance for Stanley to avenge his playoff defeat to Snedeker at the recent Farmers Insurance Open. Fingers crossed.

Getting five of eight pre-event picks through to day two is more than acceptable, with the Day turnaround being the big obvious plus. I'll be hoping for a similar sort of day today and I'll back tomorrow with a look at where to go next.

WGC Match Play pre-event picks:
Jason Day @ [38.0]
Kyle Stanley @ [60.0]
Justin Rose @ [80.0]
Ben Crane @ [85.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [95.0]
Zach Johnson @ [120.0]
Francesco Molinari [130.0]
Mark Wilson @ [170.0]

In-running plays:
Kyle Stanley @ [30.0]
Nick Watney @ [32.0]
Y.E Yang @ [60.0]
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ [32.0]
Sang-Moon Bae @ [40.0]
Martin Laird @ [14.5]

It may not be topping the bill this week but The Punter thinks the Mayakoba Classic offers up a great bet. Read his preview here......

With a strategy involving finger crossing, The Punter's not overly confident as he looks at this week's matchplay extravaganza......

Golf fans were treated to an exciting finale to the Northern Trust Open but was the result any good for The Punter?...

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Donald out. Woods to follow?

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 23 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Tiger Woods and Nick Watney - who will have the last laugh today?

“Jason Day wasn’t on the ropes, he was on the canvas and the count was fast approaching ten!”

Our man gets five out of eight through to day two, after Jason Day is matched at 999-1! But who does he fancy to make it through to day three?

11.20 - February 23, 2012

A pretty typical WGC Match Play day one really, all wrapped up in unfathomable TV coverage.

There were countless shots of play by one player only, with no reference to their opponents whatsoever. For example, in the Adam Scott - Robert Rock match we saw Scott tee off on the 15th, we saw him chip out of the desert, chip onto the green and even attempt his par putt but what Rock was up to remained a mystery. It made for frustrating viewing.

I know it must be really tough to keep tabs on 32 different ties but some of their match choices were very odd. Obviously, we saw much of the Tiger Woods - Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano match but for some bizarre reason we kept being shown coverage of the Freddy Jacobsen -Robert Karlsson tie, which was as good as all-over before they reached the turn anyway. My guess is that Sky was receiving the Swedish TV feed in error!

And I was on tenterhooks over the K.J Choi-Kyle Stanley match as it approached its conclusion but I didn't get to see the finish. The result just came up on screen. Mercifully, it went my way with Stanley winning 2 & 1, but why we didn't see any of the play on 17 instead of watching Karlsson go five up with six to play is anyone's guess?

Anyway, that's more than enough moaning about the TV coverage; I'm starting to irritate myself now!

It was, as it invariable is each year, a day which contained a few first round shocks, with Ernie Els' thrashing of Luke Donald (5 & 4) arguably the biggest. Ian Poulter crashing out to Sang-Moon Bae was certainly unexpected too but the day will be remembered more for the amount of turnarounds.

Jim Furyk let Dustin Johnson off the hook, messing up the last in regulation when one up, before making a right pig's ear of the 2nd in extra time after Dustin had driven into the desert! And Bill Haas lost his match against Ryo Ishikawa after being thee up with five to play but the biggest turnaround came in the Jason Day - Rafael Cabrera-Bello match...

I confess, having already seen Zach Johnson and Justin Rose get beat, and with Ben Crane about to join them I was a bit fed up to say the least at one stage last night. Kyle Stanley was on the ropes, having gone from two up to one down in his match and Jason Day wasn't on the ropes, he was on the canvas and the count was fast approaching ten! It looked highly likely that my two main fancies were going out and that of my eight picks I was going to be left with just three but then Stanley turned his match round and Cabrera-Bello choked big style.

Three down with three to play was a desperate situation for Day to be in and he was matched at the maximum of [1000.0], albeit only for a couple of quid. There was more available and I looked and looked at it without taking any but I'm not moaning. I am grateful though - Cabrera-Bello saw the winning line and dodged it, bogeying the last three to relinquish his lead and there was an air of inevitability about Day's birdie on the first extra hole to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

I've had two in-running plays so far and I'm waiting for a third to be matched. I've now got Nick Watney onside at [32.0]; as I fancy he could well get past Woods and Stanley's section has opened up nicely with Donald and Scott both going out so I've had a modest top-up on him. I'm also trying to back Y.E Yang. I'm partially matched at [65.0] and hopeful that I'll get the rest matched before kick-off.

Rory McIlroy [11.5], who himself very nearly mucked up his first round match against George Coetzee, now heads the market, narrowly over Lee Westwood at [12.5]. Martin Kaymer is [14.5] and so is Tiger Woods. After an unconvincing performance against Gonzo, Woods is merely a point shorter than he was before the off.

The two eye-catching ties of round two are Tiger Woods against Nick Watney and Kyle Stanley against Brad Snedeker. The Watney -Woods match up looks really tight but I quite fancy Watney to prevail, especially if Tiger performs as poorly as he did yesterday. The Stanley - Snedeker match is interesting as it's a chance for Stanley to avenge his playoff defeat to Snedeker at the recent Farmers Insurance Open. Fingers crossed.

Getting five of eight pre-event picks through to day two is more than acceptable, with the Day turnaround being the big obvious plus. I'll be hoping for a similar sort of day today and I'll back tomorrow with a look at where to go next.

WGC Match Play pre-event picks:
Jason Day @ [38.0]
Kyle Stanley @ [60.0]
Justin Rose @ [80.0]
Ben Crane @ [85.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [95.0]
Zach Johnson @ [120.0]
Francesco Molinari [130.0]

In-running plays:
Kyle Stanley @ [30.0]
Nick Watney @ [32.0]
Y.E Yang @ [65.0] (only partially matched as at 11.00am Thursday)

It may not be topping the bill this week but The Punter thinks the Mayakoba Classic offers up a great bet. Read his preview here......

With a strategy involving finger crossing, The Punter's not overly confident as he looks at this week's matchplay extravaganza......

Golf fans were treated to an exciting finale to the Northern Trust Open but was the result any good for The Punter?...

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The Punter's De-Brief: Woods fades as Lefty shines

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Mickelson after his fourth Pebble Beach success

“As Mickelson was propelling himself up the leaderboard at a rate of knots, Woods was missing putts from a few feet and dropping shots like confetti at a wedding. He seems to have lost that steely nerve and the once invincible now looks vulnerable. “

Phil Mickelson wins the AT & T Pebble Beach National as Tiger Woods falters in the mix once more. Read Steve's thoughts on this week's events here...

It all came down to putting at the Dubai Desert Classic - Raphael Cabrera-Bello rolled in the vital ones, particularly for birdie on the 17th, whilst Lee Westwood missed chance after chance and the Spaniard prevailed by one to win his second title, following his win at the Austria Open in 2009.

In the States, Phil Mickelson played some inspired stuff to claim his third AT & T Pebble Beach title in eight years and his fourth in total. For the third week in-a-row on the PGA Tour someone had entered the final round with a substantial lead, only to let it slip. This week it was the turn of Charlie Wi. The Korean four-putted the first green to make double-bogey and was always up against it after that. To his credit, he rallied to claim second place, birdying the last three holes.

My Bets
I entered the weekend with very high hopes in Dubai with both Thomas Bjorn and Martin Kaymer right in the thick of it but by the time they'd played three holes on Sunday I knew I had no chance. In stark contrast, I entered the final round at the AT & T with very little hope of turning the week's fortunes around and then up popped Lefty - backed before the off at [26.0].

Few things in life give me greater pleasure than watching Mickelson in full flow when I've backed him and his eight under par 64 was a joy to watch. There were par saves from 20 feet plus, a tee-shot to within a few feet, an eagle and birdies aplenty. This was vintage Lefty and not for the first time it came from almost nowhere.

I layed plenty of my wager back, at all rates down from [1.88] to [1.01], but it was a tremendous result and one I'll remember for a long time.

Players to swerve
I'd highlighted Lee Westwood's record when he's right in the mix yesterday and it makes for even worse reading today. Incredibly, he's now zero from twelve when he's either tied for the lead, leading by one, or trailing by one, going into the final round. If he's built up a decent lead, like he did recently at both the Thailand Golf Championship and Nedbank Challenge, he's able to coast home but without clear water between himself and the field, he seems to struggle. As already stated, his putting yesterday was dreadful and I fancy nerves have something to do with that and he remains one to treat with caution when bang in-contention on a Sunday.

Only two weeks ago I wrote "There is a slight chance that the ruthless and clinical closer that Woods once was is a thing of the past and he may just be worth taking on at short odds the next time he finds himself in with a good chance. I fancy he's bound to be shorter than he should be." So who did I fancy as the danger at the AT & T with a round to go? Tiger Woods.

Apart from a short spell on Friday, Mickelson hadn't impressed and I fancied the leaders, Wi and Ken Duke might struggle and that Woods looked a fair price at around [3.85]. Mercifully, I didn't back him because he was quite frankly abysmal. Where's the old Tiger gone? As Mickelson was propelling himself up the leaderboard at a rate of knots, Woods was missing putts from a few feet and dropping shots like confetti at a wedding. He seems to have lost that steely nerve and the once invincible now looks vulnerable.

I'm sure those that followed Paul Krishnamurty's advice and layed Tiger in both the top-five and top-ten markets had resigned themselves to paying out but the once mighty Woods was so bad yesterday that his three over par 75 saw him slip from third place to 15th to put his layers in clover.

What have we learnt for next year?
Don't back Rory McIlroy over the weekend in Dubai, a pattern has definitely emerged. In each of the last four years he's started off like a rocket but when he gets to the weekend the rocket starts malfunctioning. Even when he won the event in 2009 there were stumbles over the last two days and he's worth taking on if he starts well again next year. As to why it happens? He often starts to tread water when he hits the front early in tournaments but I think there's more to it than that here. The course changes considerably as the week goes on. The smallest change in wind speeds changes the yardages significantly and the greens vary in speed from one day to the next and I'm not sure he's able to adapt as well as he should. We've all seen what he's capable off in benign conditions but I still have my doubts about him when it's not so easy.

The Race to Dubai moves from the Middle East to India this week with the Avantha Masters, where Cabrera-Bello will be attempting to go back-to-back. Whilst in the States, a first-rate field, including world number one Luke Donald, lines up at Riviera for the Northern Trust Open. I'll be back tomorrow with previews of both events.

Steve's out of the game as they close out the event in Dubai so he's taken a good look at the state of play in California where Tiger looks the man to beat......

Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?...

Our man takes a good look at the last leg of the Middle East Swing, where Rory McIlroy's a warm order, but is he value?...

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rory recovers well in Dubai

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Rafael Cabrera-Bello – off to a flier

“Playing the back-nine first, Cabrera-Bello had already gotten himself to -9 by the time he teed off on the par five 3rd but he pared in after that and all the talk of the first European Tour 59 soon came to nothing.”

Steve takes a quick look at the state of play in Dubai, where there was talk of a 59 during round one, and he's already added another pick...

19.55 - February 9, 2012

Despite one of my pre-event picks, defending champ Alvaro Quiros, dropping three shots in his first four holes, it hasn't been a bad day at the Dubai Desert Classic. The enigmatic Spaniard did manage to eventually compose himself and he ended the day on -2. Tied 35th and seven off the lead wasn't exactly the start I was hoping for but I certainly haven't given up on the big feller just yet. He trailed by ten shots at this stage last year and I've had a little top-up at [60.0].

Rafael Cabrera-Bello, today shot the low round I was hoping he'd shoot last Sunday (I backed him at a big price before round four in Qatar) and it could have been quite a bit better. Playing the back-nine first, he'd already gotten himself to -9 by the time he teed off on the par five 3rd but he pared in after that and all the talk of the first European Tour 59 soon came to nothing.

Quiros might have disappointed but two of my picks have fared well so far. Martin Kaymer and Thomas Bjorn both shot 66, as did favourite Rory McIlroy and the three of them are in the bunch in a tie for 4th on -6, three behind Cabrera-Bello.

I've just chucked a few quid at Nicholas Thompson (-4) at a crazy price. He hasn't been in sparkling form of late but he's a winner on the Nationwide Tour and three years ago he had a solid enough season on the PGA Tour, with half-a-dozen top-seven finishes.

It's very, very early days at the A T &T Pebble Beach National but it already looks as though I'm struggling with my picks. Nick Watney and Dustin Johnson are the two that have started the best so far. Coverage starts at 8.00pm on Sky but how much of it I'll be able to watch is debatable. These pro-ams are usually pretty hard to watch, with far too much inane coverage of the 'celebrities'.

Qatar Masters Pre-Event Selections
Martin Kaymer @ [10.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [28.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [30.0]
Thorbjørn Olesen @ [140.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [220.0]

In-Running Plays
Alvaro Quiros @ [60.0]
Nicholas Thompson @ [350.0]

AT & T Pebble Beach National Pre-Event Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [26.0]
John Mallinger @ an average of [90.0]
Jeff Maggert @ [130.0]
Daniel Chopra @ [260.0]

Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?...

Our man takes a good look at the last leg of the Middle East Swing, where Rory McIlroy's a warm order, but is he value?...

Pre-event pick Ben Crane comes up a shot shy but Steve was still happy to see Kyle Stanley win in Phoenix and he couldn't have been more impressed by Paul Lawrie's success in Qatar......

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