The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 04 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
World number one in waiting - Rory McIlroy
"Rory has finished in the top-five in nine of his last ten events – a phenomenal run of form. But it’s worth considering that he’s only actually won once during that period of excellence."
With storms threatening, play has been brought forward in Florida, with the leaders teeing off at 3.30pm. Can odds on Rory take the title and the world number one spot? The Punter gives his verdict here...
12.15 - March 4, 2012
Sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing and with a round to go, I've only just got involved in-running. I looked long and hard at the state of play before round three and although I was tempted by Keegan Bradley and Justin Rose, I eventually decided that discretion was the better part of valour and it's paid off. Bradley is still around [13.0] this morning and Justin Rose is considerably bigger than the [5.6] he was yesterday, after a disappointing third round. Trailing Rory McIlroy by four, he's now [16.5].
Current leaderboard and odds to back as at 12.00
Rory McIlroy -11 [1.64]
Harris English -9 [11.0]
Tom Gillis -9 [16.0]
Keegan Bradley -7 [13.5]
Justin Rose -7 [16.5]
Brian Harman -7 [55.0]
Charl Schwartzel -6 [22.0]
Dicky Pride -6 [140.0]
Greg Chalmers -5 [110.0]
-4 bar
It was impossible not to be really impressed with Rory yesterday. There was something about his demeanour that suggested he's experienced a step up in belief and on the face of it a win today and his inevitable rise to world number one as a result, looks almost inevitable. But yesterday was Saturday, today's Sunday, and the pressure is infinitely more intense on payday and I'm still not utterly convinced, despite his confident appearance.
He's without any doubt the best golfer in the world now, he's also the most in-form and the most consistent but the fact remains, he's not converting chances with relentless regularity and those considering piling in at just [1.64] need to exercise caution. Incredibly, Rory has finished in the top-five in nine of his last ten events - a phenomenal run of form. But it's worth considering that he's only actually won once during that period of excellence.
Although I wouldn't advocate backing Rory at [1.64], with so few alternatives on offer, I'm in no mood to lay him either. Instead I've tried to be clever and picked out a couple of small backs.
Tom Gillis was clinging on yesterday and he made some remarkable par saves but I can't see how he can keep it going again today. He looks highly likely to struggle and I can't fancy him at all.
I'm still tempted by Bradley and I may yet back him in-running but in tricky conditions any margin is magnified and he may just have too much to do. I'd suspected one or two players might have shot better to emerge from the pack yesterday but it just didn't happen. Harris English and Rory shot the equal best rounds - four under par 66's and it's very difficult to envisage anyone shooting low today. Conditions wouldn't have gotten any easier overnight!
Justin Rose's game was ragged yesterday and he needs to improve a lot today, so maybe I was right to dismiss him on the account of his current form after all. Albeit only just! If he plays like he did yesterday, he has no chance.
Charl Schwartzel could be a viable alternative, if he can put in another fast start but sustain it this time. He was four under par through just six holes yesterday but played out the remaining two thirds of the course in one over.
It's hard to find alternatives but after much deliberation, I've had a couple of small wagers on the two Q-school graduates in the mix.
Should Rory struggle, 22 year old American Harris English could just be the man to prosper. He too looked coolness personified yesterday; however the same warning applies to him as it does to Rory. Today's a whole different ball game and English could turn into a gibbering wreck but I thought he was the best alternative at the odds available and just about worth a small wager and I'm also taking a chance on Brian Harman...
Harman was the U.S. Junior Amateur in 2003 and at 25 he has fully three years over English and Rors - a veritable veteran! I don't know much about him but anyone that can shoot 61 around PGA National - smashing the course record by three, and then return the following day and break par must have some game and it's likely the market has vastly underestimated him at [60.0].
Don't forget this starts very soon. The leaders tee off at 3.30pm and it's live on Sky from 3.30pm too. Enjoy!
15.25 - March 3, 2012
Given he came very close to being a selection, watching Justin Rose hit the front last night was particularly irritating, and I'm pretty sure had I not backed him last week, when he lost in round one of the Match Play to Paul Lawrie, I would have played him here. He ticked every box bar current form and I felt he was just a fraction short at around [40.0].
Rose was matched at just [3.20] last night as he went two shots clear but two late bogeys, just as he looked like he was going to kick clear, meant he ended the second round tied with Tom Gillis.
I'd written yesterday that I'd have a really good look today and I have, but I've decided to leave things alone for now, even though I'm desperate to oppose the current favourite, Rory McIlroy.
History suggests you need to be up with the pace at this stage and that maybe we shouldn't be looking any further than the front four (McIlroy and Dicky Pride on -7 trail Gillis and Rose by one) but with the forecast suggesting that the wind will pick up considerably today I'm going to hang fire.
McIlroy isn't a great wind player and I'd love to go against him. I'm tempted by both Rose at [5.5] and Keegan Bradley (three off the lead and a brilliant wind player) at [12.5] but I'm going to sit on my hands for now and see what happens early on.
Of my pre-event picks, Ben Crane fought back brilliantly after an early double-bogey but then spoilt all the good work by bogeying two of his last three holes. He's now on -4 and four of the lead. One further back is Ryan Palmer and believe it or not, I still have hope there. If the wind does really get up Palmer will relish the challenge and if there is going to be a big shake up today he could be one of those to make progress.
14:10 - March 2, 2012
I'm pretty sure I've never had so many picks all receive the usually beneficial early first round tee time. Incredibly, all eight selections were assigned an early start on Thursday but only two took full advantage. The morning starters averaged 70.40, compared to the afternoon starters who averaged 71.32, but with the wind forecast to be marginally worse this afternoon, I suspect it'll even itself out.
Best of my eight was Ryan Palmer, who shot a four under par 66, two more than first round leader, Ryder Cup captain, Davis Love III. Ben Crane shot 67, Matt Bettencourt 69 and a both Y.E Yang and Fredrik Jacobson shot level par - and they're not out of it yet.
Interestingly, a couple of past winners have started slowly so if your pick or picks haven't started brilliantly, don't panic. Last year's winner, Rory Sabbatini, shot a one over par 71 in round one and was sitting in a tie for 20th and Mark Wilson, who won in 2007, was in a tie for 53rd after starting the week with a two over 72. Both did get cracking on day two though and they were sitting second and fifth respectfully after round two and indeed, no winner has come from any further back than sixth at halfway.
I'm going to take a really good look at the close of play today and recent history suggests I shouldn't scan too far down the leaderboard to find the winner. With the drying wind making the course tougher as the week wares on, making up ground gets harder and harder and the last three winners were either one back (Sabatini) or leading at the halfway stage.
Play is already under way and Paul Krishnamurty has once again gotten himself a Find Me A 100 Winner in the mix. Carl Pettersson is current in a tie for third!
Of the fancied runners - Rory McIlroy has started well again, shooting -4, and it's surely only a matter of time before he's ranked the world's number one player. But Lee Westwood and Tiger Woods are struggling slightly. Westwood is currently on level par, five holes into round two, and Tiger Woods, in the same group, is one over. His putting woes are continuing unabated. He needed 34 strokes with the flatstick yesterday and nobody wins anything with that sort of average.
Honda Classic Pre-Event Selections:
Ben Crane @ [42.0]
Y. E. Yang @ [55.0]
Fredrik Jacobson @ [65.0]
Ryan Palmer @ [190.0]
Stephen Ames @ [250.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [350.0]
Graham DeLaet @ [400.0]
In-Play bets
Harris English @ [11.5]
Brian Harman @ [60.0]
There's just one event to concentrate on this week but it's a cracker. Read Steve's thoughts on the Honda Classic here......
It's been a poor week for Steve, with his gamble on Mark Wilson just falling short, but what lessons has he learnt for next year?...
After a dull day in the desert yesterday, Steve's hoping for a lot more excitement today. Could Mark Wilson go all the way and who will win the big grudge match?...
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