Match Previews 
/ Will Greenwood / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Will Greenwood does not have fond memories of this lot
"I envisage France prevailing by 10-13 points so the safe bet is to back France -8.5 points at [2.14]."
Will Greenwood followers are enjoying considerable profits this Six Nations. So you should probably follow his advice when France and Ireland meet for their rescheduled match in Paris this Sunday.
Ireland are really up against it this Sunday. It's impossible to legislate for last minute postponements and, while both France and Ireland are now involved in four consecutive grueling match weekends, the away side face a gargantuan task in Paris.
Perhaps Declan Kidney's men played too much in their own half last weekend but that's the way to beat Italy. France and England both had to be patient before breaking down the Azzurri and Ireland took their opportunities well after the break. Their 42-10 win blew away a few cobwebs.
But it's backs against the wall time on Sunday. Paris is a horrible place for visiting teams. I admire French rugby, on its good days at least, they've made an inestimable contribution to club competition and Philip Saint-Andre has the makings of a very good team. However, while I appreciate that these are delicate times for Anglo-French relations, there are several reasons why playing in Paris is, frankly, merde.
Never underestimate the disorientating effect of competing in a foreign culture. Minor details, such as the food, driving on the wrong side of the road, put you ill at ease. Stade de France is a strange, enervating arena, where 90,000 French fans look at you as though you're not worthy of being on the pitch. Fair play to them, they know how to undermine opponents, but banter in the stands and on the touchline gets lost in translation and the atmosphere is cold, cold, cold.
You might have guessed that I never won in Paris. I was part of an England team that lost there on three occasions - 24-17, 20-15, 24-21 - and I was out injured when we silenced the French fans in 2000. That same year, incidentally, Ireland achieved their last win in the City of Light as Brian O'Driscoll scored a hat-trick in a 25-27 thriller.
In those days, teams scored points even when losing to France. Italy managed 12 here in round one and Scotland scored a couple of tries against France last weekend but Les Bleus were in second gear in both matches. I anticipate ruthlessness from France. There's been absolutely nothing wrong with their attack so far but I sense that they would relish a big victory. The loss of Maxime Medard is a blow but the march to Cardiff for what should be a Grand Slam decider would benefit from momentum. I expect Wesley Fofana and Vincent Clerc to come flying out of the blocks on Sunday so I'll back an early try.
Betfair have got it spot on with their 12.5 margin line and I'm struggling to choose which side to put my money on. I was right to back Ireland to go over and France under last week but I may have to swerve this market. Three weeks ago, I thought France would win by a big score but I sense that Ireland could be more resolute this time. I envisage France prevailing by 10-13 points so the safe bet is to back France -8.5 points at [2.14].
Recommended Bets
3pts Back France-8.5 @ [2.14]
3pts Back France/France in the half-time/full-time market @ [1.81]
1pt Back 11-20 mins first try odds @ [2.54]
Geoffrey Riddle shares Will Greenwood's view that France should win and win well against Ireland in Paris on Sunday. Our man is also backing a certain French winger to terrorise the visitors......
Geoffrey Riddle believes that one day it will all click for Andy Robinson's Scotland - and the stats back him up - but whether that will happen on Sunday against France is another matter....
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