Will Greenwood: Back England to secure historic Grand Slam in Cardiff

"For the first time in a while I am struggling to stop myself chucking my boots in the car, driving to Cardiff and trying to persuade Stuart Lancaster to give me a game."

Back England to win by under 12.5 points at 2.35/4

Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood is excited for the last weekend of the Six Nations and he fancies England to squeak past a difficult encounter at the Millendium Stadium...

We had a nice 2.47/5 winner last week when Toby Flood stroked a penalty over the posts to open the scoring against Italy at Twickenham. Admittedly, England didn't produce the steamrolling, barnstorming display we predicted as Italy's defence held up quite well, and the entire team appeared buoyed by the return of the great Sergio Parisse.

It seemed to me like some of the England lads had one eye on a trip to Cardiff and their play against Italy was a bit lateral; it lacked the ingenuity and intensity going forward and, while Italy were defensively very solid, it was easier for them than it should have been. I remember playing against Italy in the McAlpine Stadium back in 1998 ahead of a more important game and we ended up scraping the win by just eight points. These things can happen from time to time; if you know you're likely to playing the biggest game of your career in a fortnight's time, it's very tough not to think about it.

All of which brings me on to this Saturday's crunch game. A final match in Cardiff for England to win their first Grand Slam in ten years ahead of a Lions tour? It does not get bigger than this.

It's tempting for everyone to think that all the pressure ahead of this tie is on England, but that's not strictly true. Wales know that if they win by at least seven points they can secure a defence of their Six Nations crown, and what's more, Welsh rugby fans most certainly do not like to see their boys lose to England at any time, let alone at Cardiff in a crunch game. They'll be feeling it just as much as England, mark my words.

Ahead of Lions selection, it's important that the players involved play the game and not the occasion. A lot of the England team won't have played in Cardiff before, but I don't think that'll be as much of a factor as has been reported for two reasons. Firstly, this team has shown it can handle different types of pressure; both the expectation of a routine win (the game against Scotland at Twickenham, for example) and the in-your-face pressure of a physical, unattractive tie in Ireland. Secondly, England's coaching setup has been everywhere and experienced just about everything. They'll be adept at passing on their experience to the players and should be able to keep them focused.

I will be especially interested in how the battle of the centres plays out. Much has been made of the Tuilagi-Barritt/Twelvetrees v Roberts/Davies battle in there but England will do well to remember that a lot of the threat will come from behind, with North and Cuthbert lending support and giving them plenty more to think about. It's vital England stay robust defensively in the face of that hard running and pressure.

This will be the last game a lot of these Welsh players play before Lions selection, so they'll be desperate to make it count. This will be a tight game, a barn-burner of a match. For the first time in a while I am struggling to stop myself chucking my boots in the car, driving to Cardiff and trying to persuade Stuart Lancaster to give me a game. As a pro, these are the games you live for. Everything's at stake, and it's the finest of margins that will settle it: one missed tackle, one scrappy line-out or one line break could decide where that trophy ends up. Do not miss it.

Recommended Bet

Earlier in the week, I tipped England to nick this game by a small margin, so I think I'll have to stick with that. 2.35/4 is currently the price for England to win by under 12.5 points and, in my view, they can weather the Welsh storm and secure an unforgettable Grand Slam. Hold on to your hats though, because this is going to go to the wire.

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Six Nations Betting: Will Greenwood on France v Ireland

Match Previews / Will Greenwood / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Greenwood does not have fond memories of this lot

"I envisage France prevailing by 10-13 points so the safe bet is to back France -8.5 points at [2.14]."

Will Greenwood followers are enjoying considerable profits this Six Nations. So you should probably follow his advice when France and Ireland meet for their rescheduled match in Paris this Sunday.

Ireland are really up against it this Sunday. It's impossible to legislate for last minute postponements and, while both France and Ireland are now involved in four consecutive grueling match weekends, the away side face a gargantuan task in Paris.

Perhaps Declan Kidney's men played too much in their own half last weekend but that's the way to beat Italy. France and England both had to be patient before breaking down the Azzurri and Ireland took their opportunities well after the break. Their 42-10 win blew away a few cobwebs.

But it's backs against the wall time on Sunday. Paris is a horrible place for visiting teams. I admire French rugby, on its good days at least, they've made an inestimable contribution to club competition and Philip Saint-Andre has the makings of a very good team. However, while I appreciate that these are delicate times for Anglo-French relations, there are several reasons why playing in Paris is, frankly, merde.

Never underestimate the disorientating effect of competing in a foreign culture. Minor details, such as the food, driving on the wrong side of the road, put you ill at ease. Stade de France is a strange, enervating arena, where 90,000 French fans look at you as though you're not worthy of being on the pitch. Fair play to them, they know how to undermine opponents, but banter in the stands and on the touchline gets lost in translation and the atmosphere is cold, cold, cold.

You might have guessed that I never won in Paris. I was part of an England team that lost there on three occasions - 24-17, 20-15, 24-21 - and I was out injured when we silenced the French fans in 2000. That same year, incidentally, Ireland achieved their last win in the City of Light as Brian O'Driscoll scored a hat-trick in a 25-27 thriller.

In those days, teams scored points even when losing to France. Italy managed 12 here in round one and Scotland scored a couple of tries against France last weekend but Les Bleus were in second gear in both matches. I anticipate ruthlessness from France. There's been absolutely nothing wrong with their attack so far but I sense that they would relish a big victory. The loss of Maxime Medard is a blow but the march to Cardiff for what should be a Grand Slam decider would benefit from momentum. I expect Wesley Fofana and Vincent Clerc to come flying out of the blocks on Sunday so I'll back an early try.

Betfair have got it spot on with their 12.5 margin line and I'm struggling to choose which side to put my money on. I was right to back Ireland to go over and France under last week but I may have to swerve this market. Three weeks ago, I thought France would win by a big score but I sense that Ireland could be more resolute this time. I envisage France prevailing by 10-13 points so the safe bet is to back France -8.5 points at [2.14].

Recommended Bets
3pts Back France-8.5 @ [2.14]
3pts Back France/France in the half-time/full-time market @ [1.81]
1pt Back 11-20 mins first try odds @ [2.54]

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Betfair Video: Will Greenwood on England v France

General / Maxliu / 05 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Follow Will's tips on Betting.Betfair

Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood explains why he's backing England to inflict more World Cup misery on France as he prepares to fly out to New Zealand...

Will Greenwood is confident that England can beat France in Saturday's Rugby World Cup quarter-final. The ex-England centre, who was part of the winning team in 2003, believes that Martin Johnson's men could defeat Les Bleus by over 12 points as long as it doesn't rain in Auckland when the team's meet.

He also explains why Ireland v Wales is too close to call and why New Zealand are still the team to beat. Make sure you read Will's match previews on Friday but, in the mean time, check out the video.

O'Driscoll and co. put the Red Rose to the sword in with an indominatable performance that leaves Johnson soul-seraching....

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Will Greenwood: How to bet on top try scorer - by a former winner

Rugby World Cup / Will Greenwood / 01 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Kurtley Beale is a decent outside bet

"The Pool stage is where the top try scorer is won and lost. In the knockout rounds, the tries dry up."

Will Greenwood was joint-top try scorer at the Rugby World Cup eight years ago. Here, he explains how to play one of the tournament's trickiest markets....

Top try scorer is a very complicated market to bet on at the Rugby World Cup. In 2003, I finished the tournament as joint top, having crossed the whitewash five times during England's victorious campaign, but I shared the honour with Josh Lewsey who scored the same amount of tries in the 113-11 Pool stage humbling of Uruguay.

That shows what a tricky market this can be and why it might pay to look down the market for a long odds candidate. The Pool stage is where the top try scorer is won and lost. That's where you get the big ten teams playing at odds on, beating smaller nations by huge margins. In the knockout stages, the tries dry up.

At [8.0], New Zealand's Cory Jane is a worthy market leader. He's strong, robust, prolific and, if the hosts are to win this World Cup, as the market expects them to at 1.76, it makes sense to back their brilliant winger to bag lots of points.

But it's not as simple as that. In 1995, South Africa won the World Cup, beating a New Zealand team that included Jonah Lomu at his peak. Marc Ellis, who didn't even feature in the knockout stage for the All Blacks, finished as top try scorer because he ran in six in a Pool win over Japan.

There are three key first round games to consider when weighing up this bet: New Zealand v Japan (again), England v Romania and Australia v Russia. In those games, Jane, Kurtley Beale (26.0), Zac Guildford (13.5), Digby Ioane (10.0), James O'Connor (13.0) and Chris Ashton (13.5) could all take this market by storm.

The games take place on September 16, 24 and October 1 respectively. The big names at the top of the market could be rested so it makes sense to wait to see who is selected before betting big money in the top try scorer market.

Australia's backs could make hay when they meet Italy on the opening weekend for a match in which Ioane could score a hatful. I'm backing England to go far in this tournament but I don't expect them to destroy teams early on in the way that New Zealand and Australia undoubtedly will. For a pre-tournament value bet, Kurtley Beale is my tip at [26.0]. Those are good odds but be sure to return to the market once you know the teams for those key games.

Recommended Bet: 1pt Back Kurtley Beale @ [26.0].

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Follow Will's advice on Betting.Betfair throughout the Rugby World Cup - next week he previews England's opener against Argentina.

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Will Greenwood: Rugby World Cup Pool Predictions

Rugby World Cup / Will Greenwood / 01 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will's backing Richie McCaw to lead New Zealand to Pool A victory

"I expect England to beat Argentina and emerge victorious from Pool B."

With only a week to go before the big kick off, the Betfair ambassador assesses the Pools and picks his winners from each one...

Pool A

Winning in Wellington in 2003 was one of the highlights of my career but, generally, New Zealand don't lose at home. That's one of the reasons they're [1.76] favourites to win the World Cup and [1.12] to win Group A. Those odds are justifiably short. The bettor's instinct is to look for value but I don't see any in this Pool. Yes, New Zealand have choked in the past but they win comprehensively early on. They've always had power and dynamism and now they're a highly intelligent team too. France [7.0] have a great performance in them, and they have upset the All Blacks in previous tournaments, but I expect them to finish second and save their heroics for later. For Tonga, Japan and Canada, playing against the hosts will be a great learning experience.

Pool B

One of the main reasons for teams to win their Pool is to avoid New Zealand in the quarters and semi-finals. England [1.36] have extra impetus as they don't wish to meet the hosts in the next round. Of course, if you want to win, you have to beat the best, but it's still better to meet them later rather than sooner. I'll look ahead to England's opener next week but I expect the Red Rose to win and emerge victorious from Pool B. After that, it's Argentina [6.8] or Scotland [5.8] - the game between them on September 25 will be pivotal and, although I do think Georgia could cause both teams problems, it will determine who goes through. At this stage, I'd back the Pumas.

Pool C

This Pool is all about Australia [1.25] and Ireland [4.7]. I like the Aussies at the moment and Robbie Deans has assembled an exciting squad. David Pockock is a spectacular talent, who can match New Zealand's Richie McCaw, and new captain James Horwill could prove to be the player of the tournament. Ireland still have the hex on winning in the southern hemisphere. To beat Australia you need to destroy them up front and Ireland don't have the pack to do that. The Wallabies backline is full of wizardry and, given the chance, Digby Ioane and James O'Connor will run riot. I'm backing Australia to win Pool C with Ireland going through as runners-up.

Pool D

Wales [5.3] need to bring their body armour and hard hats if they are to emerge from the Group of Death. It's going be super tough for Warren Gatland's men but Sam Warburton is a class act, an excellent choice as captain, and they should have enough to get through. Just. Gatland must motivate his players to approach the World Cup as a knock-out tournament. In the past, they've been sloppy in the Pool stage and only woken up in the last eight. With Samao [16.0] desperate to progress, there's no time for a slow start and the match between the two sides on September 18 will be tight, decisive. South Africa [1.29] may have had a poor Tri-Nations but Peter de Villiers' squad boasts star names and his policy of resting them might yet pay off. They will go through as Pool winners.

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Follow Will's advice on Betting.Betfair throughout the Rugby World Cup - next week he previews England's opener against Argentina.

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Will Greenwood: Beating Scotland and why change is good

Memories / Will Greenwood / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

"That's my try!"

Will reflects on a memorable score against the Scots and explains why a team that can absorb change is often a winning team...

England v Scotland at Twickenham is always a great occasion but, as a player, I used to really enjoy the trip north of the border. That may have a lot to do with the fact that I never lost at Murrayfield but it was always a great place to go to, a fantastic stadium, filled with a passionate crowd. There was always a top night out in Edinburgh afterwards too.

I played against Scotland at Twickenham in 2001 and 2003. I scored a memorable try in the '01 fixture which was all about Jason Robinson's pace and finesse. Robbo came off the bench for only his second international appearance; I'd seen him play against Italy a fortnight before and noted how quick he was in training but he really was an explosive talent. If he took off there was no point in trying to keep up with him. The key was to run down the middle in the hope that he would make the most of my support. That's exactly what happened and I scored between the sticks, untouched from 50 yards. Of course, I had Austin Healy in my ear, saying: "That was my try."

Robbo became an important player in a great team but one of our key strengths under Clive Woodward was the way we absorbed changes. That challenge now faces the current England side.

Changes are part of a winning team's progress. While most people were in agreement in 2003 about the starting team, the side was never adversely affected by late changes, injuries, or week to week form. The ability to absorb change is a strength.

This weekend, Johnno is likely to make changes, if not to the starting line-up then certainly as the game against Scotland progresses. International rugby is no longer a 15 man game, it's all about building a strong 30 man squad with no weak links. Nowadays, you need two teams.

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To follow Will on Twitter click here and to visit his website click here.

Will reflects on a memorable score against the Scots and explains why a team that can absorb change is often a winning team......

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Will Greenwood: Round four treble

Match Previews / Will Greenwood / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will doesn't fancy facing this man - but is he playing in his best position?

"The match in Cardiff is probably the pick of the round four games. It should be a cracker as two sides heading in the right direction come face to face."

Last time out Will Greenwood rewarded backers by landing a 14/1 treble - can he pull off the same trick in round four?

Readers of this column know two things about me: I landed a 14/1 treble in round three and I have a lot of love for Italy. Here's where those two facts combine.

Italy are a massive [16.0] to beat France but they have performed admirably in their two games at home, causing problems for Ireland and Wales. I was gutted when Ronan O'Gara slotted that drop goal in round one to deny the Italian's a deserved victory. They possess excellent players and I've been impressed by Alberto Sgarbi as well as Sergio Parisse and Mirco Bergamasco. The latter pair play their club rugby in France so they know all about Saturday's opposition and will work hard to spread belief amongst the squad.

The French would need to slip-up in pursuit of a big win and everything would have to fall just right for the Italians.

But - and you knew there was a but coming - one of the golden rules of gambling is that in the event of a big win, you should not, repeat not, then go out and blow the winnings on a risky wager. I'd be delighted to see the look on the Italy players' faces when they finally win a big game. I hope that happens this Saturday but in the end the French will have too much and I have to back them to win a tight contest.

The match in Cardiff is probably the pick of the round four games. It should be a cracker as two sides heading in the right direction come face to face.

Both Wales and Ireland are at fascinating junctures, both within a gnat's whisker of being very good teams. The Welsh have shown glimpses of brilliance in their last two matches while the Irish are attempting to rediscover the fluidity that landed them the Grand Slam two years ago.

Ireland have named an unchanged side and I'm delighted to see Paul O'Connell getting back to his brilliant best. For Wales, the cavalry has arrived, with Jonathan Davies and Leigh Halfpenny set to start as James Hook moves to fly-half. Hook is a fantastic player but I actually prefer to see him in the centre. As a former number 12, I wouldn't fancy playing against him.

This one really is very close to call. That's reflected in the odds, with home advantage making Wales [1.94] favourites and Ireland at [2.12]. If ever there was a chance of landing the draw [23.0] this could be it so you might consider getting a fiver on. Over all, I think the Millenium crowd will give Wales the extra advantage to get over the line, so I'm backing the home side to win by less than 12.5 points at [2.22].

Will Greenwood's Six Nations Treble:
Back England to beat Scotland by over 12.5 points @ [1.34].
Back France to beat Italy by under 12.5 points @ [2.52]
Back Wales to beat Ireland by under 12.5 points @ [2.22]

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To follow Will on Twitter click here and to visit his website click here.

Will explains why he anticipates a miserable return to Twickenham for Andy Robinson and why opponents around the world fear this England team....

Last time out Will Greenwood rewarded backers by landing a 14/1 treble - can he pull off the same trick in round four?...

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Will Greenwood: England will beat Scotland to set up Slam decider

Match Previews / Will Greenwood / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Andy Robinson is unlikely to have much to smile about on Saturday

"Against Scotland, England's biggest obstacle to success is themselves, but I believe they can make the most of this Grand Slam opportunity."

Will explains why he anticipates a miserable return to Twickenham for Andy Robinson and why opponents around the world fear this England team.

If Scotland win at Twickenham this Sunday they will be the biggest party poopers in Six Nations history. England fans want to see their team set up a Grand Slam decider in Dublin next week and Johnno's men will be gutted if they blow their chances here.

The odds on an England Grand Slam narrowed to [1.63] after their round three win against France and teams all over the world now see England as a formidable force. The Southern Hemisphere sides are watching and they certainly don't want to see England going to the World Cup with a Slam under their belts.

I don't fancy Scotland's chances of getting anything against England. At [13.0], Betfair punters agree. Scotland improved in their narrow defeat to Ireland but they showed again that they struggle to play well for 80 minutes. And they haven't won at Twickenham since 1983.

If you had to write a textbook on how not to start a rugby match, this Scotland side would offer a perfect case study. They've conceded a try in the first ten minutes in seven of their last nine matches. That's astonishing and explains why 0-10 Minutes is [1.8] favourite in the 1st Try Odds market. Well worth a small wager based on those stats.

Before I get accused of being too negative about the Scots, I should say that there is plenty that I like about them. Andy Robinson is a terrific coach and he has unearthed some quality talent. Everybody knows how good Scotland's back row is but I also feel that, with his peerless kicking precision, Dan Parks is a seriously under-rated fly-half. They need to prove that they can perform consistently, rather than playing well for 40 minutes before folding.

England will win on Saturday and the only question is by how much. At times they were second best against France but the ability to play badly and prevail often defines great teams. Against Scotland, England's biggest obstacle to success is themselves, but I believe they can make the most of this Grand Slam opportunity.

England will win comfortably. The match takes place on Sunday so, with no break next week, there's only six days before that potential Slam decider in Dublin. For that reason, if the Red Rose establish an unassailable lead, I expect Johnno to make a slew of second half changes. That might disrupt continuity but I doubt it and I'm confident backing England to win by over 12.5 points at [1.34].

Recommended bet:
Back England to win by over 12.5 @ [1.34].
Back 0-10 Minutes @ [1.8] in 1st Try Odds.

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To follow Will on Twitter click here and to visit his website click here.

Will explains why he anticipates a miserable return to Twickenham for Andy Robinson and why opponents around the world fear this England team....

Last time out Will Greenwood rewarded backers by landing a 14/1 treble - can he pull off the same trick in round four?...

Geoffrey Riddle suffered with the Scots a fortnight ago. So can they bounce back at Murrayfield against Ireland and where will our man put his money this time?...

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Will Greenwood: Lievremont doesn't know his best team

Six Nations talking point / Will Greenwood / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Has the French coach got his selection gambles right?

"Clive Woodward proved that changes can be very effective. But you need to maintain a strong spine in your team."

Will knows what it takes to beat France, having done it plenty of times at Twickenham. He also knows that there's a fine art to team changes and believes the French coach is being indecisive rather than bold...

I played in an England team that never lost to Les Bleus outside France. However, I also never managed to win across the Channel and I admit that I'm still irked by that. On the three occasions I played in Paris we always managed to go down by close margins.

Beating them at Twickenham was always sweet. In 2001, I crashed over early in a 48-19 victory with a try that was the result of a system that was near perfect. We had created so much space that I was practically able to walk in untouched. I actually saw the same piece of play being used by New Zealand in the Tri-Nations last year, which shows that the best rugby is timeless.

The game has changed enormously over the last two decades and no team demonstrates that better than France. Fifteen years ago their midfield was populated by slight, darting players who liked to mix up their angles, but now they're just huge. The French have got taller and bigger and all those clichés about Gallic flair have been consigned to history. Eight years ago they used to dismiss Ben Cohen, implying that he was too big to be a winger, lacking in finesse, but Yoann Huget on the right wing is a carbon copy of Cohen. The old French rugby purists must be turning in their graves.

Marc Lievremont has rung the changes for Saturday's match and Martin Johnson is also considering selection dilemmas. Clive Woodward was never afraid of making changes - he changed the side for the 2003 World Cup semi-final and then again for the final - but I don't think Lievremont knows his best team.

Clive proved that changes can be very effective. But you need to maintain a strong spine in your team. Once you have got that you can make alterations around the core and that can make a side more dynamic. So you need to be careful. The key to winning big tournaments is to have a team that can win with changes. Martin Johnson will be aiming to develop that side of England between now and the autumn.

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To back Will Greenwood's Round three Six Nations Treble click here.

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Will knows what it takes to beat France, having done it plenty of times at Twickenham. He also knows that there's a fine art to team changes and believes the French coach is being indecisive rather than bold......

Five markets, five wagers... Are punters right to rule out a Grand Slam? Will this be the year Italy get off the bottom and can Toby Floor rack up the points? Will Greenwood serves up some intriguing, long term Six...

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Will Greenwood: Round three treble

Match Previews / Will Greenwood / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sam Warburton has impressed Will so far

"Scotland need to up their game for a huge clash against Ireland..."

Will's backing England at [2.46] to beat France by less than 12.5 points but what bets is he adding from Wales v Italy and Scotland v Ireland?

I admit that I was surprised by Wales' victory over Scotland - you know I was because I lost my bet - but that's the beauty of sport. I was mightily impressed by their defensive intensity and I believe Sam Warburton may be the best number seven in the Championship so far. Which is saying something when you consider that he's filling the shoes of Martyn Williams.

Italy were torn apart by a clinical England side and, as somebody with a lot of affection for the Italians, I hope they weren't traumatised by the experience. I don't think that's likely under Nick Mallet and back at the Stadio Flamino they will make things difficult for Warren Gatland's men.

I expect Italy to pile in from the start and make things difficult as they did against Ireland. Wales should take control of the game in the second half, making their possession pay between the 50th and 70th minutes. I'm backing them to win by less than 12.5 points at 2.4.

I was disappointed for Scotland and Andy Robinson but they only had themselves to blame for their defeat against the Welsh. They were absolutely terrible, no excuses, it was a lame performance and, while Wales were strong at times, Scotland pressed every self-destruct button available. They let themselves and their supporters down.

They need to up their game for a huge clash against Ireland but perhaps fans need to put things in perspective. Limited in playing numbers and professional teams, perhaps the wins should be enjoyed more than the losses mourned. I don't fancy their chances of beating Ireland. Put in a good performance, be brave against England and try and pick off the Italians and avoid the wooden spoon on the final weekend.

Ireland were beaten last time out too but they have enough about them to come back at Murrayfield and record their second win of the campaign. Back Ireland to win by -12.5 points at [2.4].

Recommended bets:
Back England to win by -12.5 points @ [2.46]
Back Wales to win by -12.5 points @ [2.4]
Back Ireland to win by -12 points @ [2.4]

To back Will Greenwood's Six Nations Round three treble click here.

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Two out of two for England and so far so good for Will Greenwood's bets on Johnno's men. But Saturday's match against France poses a big test to their Grand Slam ambitions and their aim of becoming one of the...

Will's backing England at [2.46] to beat France by less than 12.5 points but what bets is he adding from Wales v Italy and Scotland v Ireland?...

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Will Greenwood: England are ready to beat France

Match Previews / Will Greenwood / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

England must makes themselves unbeatable at Twickenham

"Back England at [2.52] to win by a margin of less than 12.5 points and take a big step towards a first championship for eight years."

Two out of two for England and so far so good for Will Greenwood's bets on Johnno's men. But Saturday's match against France poses a big test to their Grand Slam ambitions and their aim of becoming one of the most feared teams in world rugby.

Is England v France a Six Nations Championship decider? The truth is this: if France win then, with only a trip to Rome and the visit of Wales to come, they will probably have wrapped up the title. If England win, they're well on their way but they still have to go to Dublin on the final day for a match that could yet derail their Grand Slam dream.

This is England's biggest match for 12 months. Last year, in Paris, they put in a pivotal display in going down 12-10, there was proactivity on and off the field and the ground was laid for the victories over Australia and the subsequent resurgence which sees the Red Rose [1.5] favourites for Saturday's match. There was little shame in the result against a very strong French 15, especially when you bear in mind the old saying that the French never lose within the sound of their own church bells.

Johnno's men can learn from France on that score. I was part of an England team that didn't lose at Twickenham for five years and if you want to be one of the big dogs of world rugby you simply cannot afford to be beaten at home.

At Twickenham this week, I caught a glimpse inside the home dressing room I know so well. I remember where I hung my kit, where I listened to team talks, where I went through all my pre-match rituals. Hell, I even remember the toilet. These are the things that impress themselves on you when you make your home ground a fortress. The current England side understand that winning at Twickenham needs to become a habit and in their heads they will be [1.01] to win on Saturday.

Le Crunch can often turn into an arm wrestle. Toby Flood, my bet for top points scorer, who is yet to miss a kick, will have an enormous influence on this game. The scrum will once again be massive but England will be determined not to concede the type of penalties they gave away in Paris last time. Thierry Dusatoir has produced some sublime defensive performances from flanker and Dimitri Yachvili, scourge of England, is back at scrum-half.

So can Marc Livremont's men stop Chris Ashton? Rugby isn't like football, you can't send a man out to track a star player, press up close and stop him playing his game. The whole team need to organise themselves to stifle his creativity. That won't be easy because Ashton will roam across the backline and if he crosses the white wash on Saturday he can celebrate however he wants. I just hope his dive his technically sounder than it has been.

The important thing for England fans when having a bet is to follow their head not their heart. So far, all my England tips have come in and, just like the team, I intend to keep my perfect record going this weekend. I believe England can beat France and I expect a final score around 24-18.

Back England at [2.52] to win by a margin of less than 12.5 points and take a big step towards a first championship for eight years.

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Two out of two for England and so far so good for Will Greenwood's bets on Johnno's men. But Saturday's match against France poses a big test to their Grand Slam ambitions and their aim of becoming one of the...

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Will Greenwood: England can run riot against Italy

Match Previews / Will Greenwood / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

England will expect another formidable display from Mike Tindall on Saturday

Composure was key to England's winning start against Wales but, against Italy, Will Greenwood believes it's time for the Red Rose to be brutal...

I went down to Cardiff on Friday night with four mates and the buzz in the city was amazing. Everybody understood the importance of the game and the atmosphere inside the Millennium Stadium was electric, so much so that I had to re-watch the match on Monday because my memories were a little hazy.

The efficiency of England's performance was deceptive in that it obscured just how difficult it is to win in Cardiff. This was a victory of great magnitude and that should be remembered. I'd probably give England seven-and-a-half out of ten for their performance but Martin Johnson will make sure that they don't get complacent.

Personally, I loved a bollocking after a good win because it kept my feet on the ground. England looked comfortable but Johnno will be furious with occasional moments of indiscipline. They gave away four penalties when they were under scant pressure and that must be addressed.

I was impressed by how well England did the basic things. The line-out functioned really well and, while the scrum wasn't quite as dominant as expected, it gave the team a strong platform. Mike Tindall was imperious at the restarts, Toby Flood kicked well from hand and floor and England controlled the game when they had the ball. Shontayne Hape was at fault for the Welsh try but, overall, England are strong in midfield. They have developed continuity and solidity from playing together for an extended run of games and Johnno's small steps team building is coming to fruition.

Calm and composure were required against the Welsh but this weekend, against Italy, England will take a different approach. I said last week that arrogance can be a good thing in a rugby player and, in the week leading up to games against the Italians, away from the forwards ears the backs would talk about how many tries we could score'

Those days are gone and England will be respectful of Italy, especially after they pushed Ireland so close in Rome last week. The Italians improve every season, they have a front five who can mix it with anyone in the world and their defence is well organised. England should limit goal-kicking opportunities and not allow the game to descend into an arm wrestle.

Now is the time for England to be brutal. They must use Saturday's match at Twickenham as an opportunity to show that they can destroy teams in the way that New Zealand do, in that way that Australia did to France in the autumn. With this in mind, there are two ways you can go with this weekend's bets.

Which England handicap line you opt for depends on whether you want to have a go with a big bet or play safe. I expect a home win by a considerable margin so I'm actually going to mix up my bets by choosing both. You should take everything you can on England with the handicap of 22.5 points. That will win you your stake for a bolder flutter on England -34.5 points at [3.6]. I think there's a serious possibility that England will run riot at Twickenham!

Recommended bets:
Back England -22.5 points @ [2.06]
Back England -34.5 points @ [3.6]

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Will Greenwood: Wales v England is the greatest game

Match Previews / Will Greenwood / 03 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

England captain Lewis Moody won't be available but everyone knows about the intense rivalry between England and Wales

World Cup winner Will Greenwood knows more about scoring for England against Wales than any man in the history of the game. This week he launches his Betfair Six Nations zone with some some exciting bets on Friday's match, picks the winners from the rest of the weekend's action and selects five bets for the tournament...

As the opening Six Nations match in a World Cup year and with the history between the two nations, Wales v England on Friday night is going to be immense. It's the greatest game in the greatest stadium and I wish I could pull my boots on and have one last crack at the Welsh.

England are deserved [1.66[ favourites to get off to a winning start but it won't be easy. They're a better side than Wales on paper but the atmosphere in Cardiff is unbelievable, the Millenium is a beautiful stadium and it will be buzzing at kick-off. This match will be less about individual performances, more about team mettle, standing up in the Dragon's cauldron and coming away with no regrets.

Warren Gatland's attempts to wind up Dylan Hartley were brilliant. Martin Johnson has responded, ex-players like Jeremy Guscott and Jonathan Davies have got involved and all these niggles add to the occasion. Getting stuck in before a match as big as this one is just what you want to see.

There are plenty of battles to relish all over the pitch but the bottom line is that each player must out do his opposite number. Mike Tindall and Shontayne Hape's clash with James Hook - if he plays there - and Jamie Roberts in the centre is key, while two of the nicest guys in the world, Toby Flood and Stephen Jones, can't be nice on Friday night. The contest up front is intriguing too; England must go after the Welsh scrum as they have a clear advantage, but the home side will aim to dominate in the line-out.

The Welsh fans will sing for the whole eighty minutes and their players will get a massive lift from the partisan atmosphere. England scrum-half Ben Youngs can silence the home support by scoring a try and I hope he celebrates as he did when he went over for Leicester against the Scarlets a few weeks ago. Youngs has the arrogance about him that England players need in order to succeed in Cardiff. People think arrogance is a bad thing but in rugby it can be an asset.

I'm encouraged by the progress England have made in the last few months. They will have learned from their autumn defeat to South Africa and been buoyed by the victory over Australia. They have come together and there is great spirit in the camp.

I expect England to win this one and go into their three home games with momentum. I scored the winning try when the Red Rose last triumphed in Cardiff, in 2003, the score that day was 25-9 but I expect the home side to get a few more points on the board on Friday. I don't expect England to cover the 12.5 points in the winning margin market but they can win by around 25-17, which would cover the 2.5 handicap. I'm backing England -2.5 at [1.9] and I can't wait. Truly, it's going to be immense.

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